Search results for: official land price.

Authors: Saowapa Phaithayawat

Abstract:

The purposes of this study are 1) to study the impact of the 3-community-core model: House (H), Temple (T), and School (S) with the co-operation of official departments on community development to ASEAN economic community involvement and 2) to study the procedures and extension of the model. The research which is a qualitative research is based on the formal and informal interviews. Local people in a community are observed. Group interview is, also, operated by executors and cooperators in the school in the community. In terms of social and cultural dimension, the 3-community-core model consisting of house, temple and school is the base of Thai cultures bringing about understanding, happiness and unity to the community. The result of this research is that the official departments in accompanied with this model developers cooperatively work together in the community to support such factors as budget, plan, activities. Moreover, the need of community, and the continual result to sustain the community are satisfied by the model implementation. In terms of the procedures of the model implementation, executors and co-operators can work, coordinate, think, and launch their public relation altogether. Concerning the model development, this enables the community to achieve its goal to prepare the community’s readiness for ASEAN Economic Community involvement.

Keywords: ASEAN Economic Community, Community Development.

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Authors: Sofia Stoica

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In this paper, we use historical data to predict the stock price of a tech company. To this end, we use a dataset consisting of the stock prices over the past five years of 10 major tech companies: Adobe, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, Google, Microsoft, Netflix, Oracle, Salesforce, and Tesla. We implemented and tested three models – a linear regressor model, a k-nearest neighbor model (KNN), and a sequential neural network – and two algorithms – Multiplicative Weight Update and AdaBoost. We found that the sequential neural network performed the best, with a testing error of 0.18%. Interestingly, the linear model performed the second best with a testing error of 0.73%. These results show that using historical data is enough to obtain high accuracies, and a simple algorithm like linear regression has a performance similar to more sophisticated models while taking less time and resources to implement.

Keywords: Finance, machine learning, opening price, stock market.

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Authors: Zhaojun Wang, Zongdi Sun, Zhiyuan Liu

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First of all, the carbon trading price and trading volume in Shanghai are transformed by Fourier transform, and the frequency response diagram is obtained. Then, the frequency response diagram is analyzed and the Blackman filter is designed. The Blackman filter is used to filter, and the carbon trading time domain and frequency response diagram are obtained. After wavelet analysis, the carbon trading data were processed; respectively, we got the average value for each 5 days, 10 days, 20 days, 30 days, and 60 days. Finally, the data are used as input of the Back Propagation Neural Network model for prediction.

Keywords: Shanghai carbon trading, carbon trading price, carbon trading volume, wavelet analysis, BP neural network model.

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Authors: Thet Thet Han Yee, Su Su Win, Nyein Nyein Soe

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Energy consumption is one of the indices in determining the levels of development of a nation. Therefore, availability of energy supply to all sectors of life in any country is crucial for its development. These exists shortage of all kinds of energy, particularly electricity which is badly needed for economic development. Electricity from the sun which is quite abundant in most of the developing countries is used in rural areas to meet basic electricity needs of a rural community. Today-s electricity supply in Myanmar is generated by fuel generators and hydroelectric power plants. However, far-flung areas which are away from National Grids cannot enjoy the electricity generated by these sources. Since Myanmar is a land of plentiful sunshine, especially in central and southern regions of the country, the first form of energy- solar energy could hopefully become the final solution to its energy supply problem. The direct conversion of solar energy into electricity using photovoltaic system has been receiving intensive installation not only in developed countries but also in developing countries. It is mainly intended to present solar energy potential and application in Myanmar. It is also wanted to get the benefits of using solar energy for people in remote areas which are not yet connected to the national grids because of the high price of fossil fuel.

Keywords: Electricity supply in Myanmar, National Grids, solarenergy.

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Authors: Hidefumi Kawakatsu, Dong Li, Kosuke Kato

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In Japan, meat-type chickens are mainly classified into three categories: (1) Broilers, (2) Branded chickens, and (3) Jidori (Free-range local traditional pedigree chickens). The Jidori chickens are certified by the Japanese Ministry of Agriculture, whilst, for the Branded chickens, there is no regulation with respect to their breed (genotype) or methods for rearing them. It is, therefore, relatively easy for poultry farmers to introduce Branded than Jidori chickens. The Branded chickens are normally fed a low-calorie diet with ingredients such as herbs, which lengthens their breeding period (compared with that of the Broilers) and increases their market value. In the field of inventory management, fast-growing animals such as broilers are categorised as ameliorating items. To the best of our knowledge, there are no previous studies that have explicitly considered smaller sized poultry farmers with limited breeding areas. This study develops an inventory model for a small sized poultry farmer that produces both the Broilers (Product 1) and the Branded chickens (Product 2) with different amelioration rates. The poultry farmer’s total profit per unit of time is formulated as a function of selling prices by using a price-dependent demand function. The existence of a unique optimal selling price for each product, which maximises the total profit, established. It has also been confirmed through numerical examples that, when the breeding area is fixed, the total profit could increase if the poultry farmer reduced the product quantity of Product 1 to introduce Product 2.

Keywords: Amelioration, deterioration, small sized poultry farmers, optimal price.

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Authors: Ahmed Abdolkhalig

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This paper examines many mathematical methods for molding the hourly price forward curve (HPFC); the model will be constructed by numerous regression methods, like polynomial regression, radial basic function neural networks & a furrier series. Examination the models goodness of fit will be done by means of statistical & graphical tools. The criteria for choosing the model will depend on minimize the Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), using the correlation analysis approach for the regression analysis the optimal model will be distinct, which are robust against model misspecification. Learning & supervision technique employed to determine the form of the optimal parameters corresponding to each measure of overall loss. By using all the numerical methods that mentioned previously; the explicit expressions for the optimal model derived and the optimal designs will be implemented.

Keywords: Forward curve, furrier series, regression, radial basic function neural networks.

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Authors: Mohd Hasmadi Ismail, Kamaruzaman Jusoff

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In order to develop forest management strategies in tropical forest in Malaysia, surveying the forest resources and monitoring the forest area affected by logging activities is essential. There are tremendous effort has been done in classification of land cover related to forest resource management in this country as it is a priority in all aspects of forest mapping using remote sensing and related technology such as GIS. In fact classification process is a compulsory step in any remote sensing research. Therefore, the main objective of this paper is to assess classification accuracy of classified forest map on Landsat TM data from difference number of reference data (200 and 388 reference data). This comparison was made through observation (200 reference data), and interpretation and observation approaches (388 reference data). Five land cover classes namely primary forest, logged over forest, water bodies, bare land and agricultural crop/mixed horticultural can be identified by the differences in spectral wavelength. Result showed that an overall accuracy from 200 reference data was 83.5 % (kappa value 0.7502459; kappa variance 0.002871), which was considered acceptable or good for optical data. However, when 200 reference data was increased to 388 in the confusion matrix, the accuracy slightly improved from 83.5% to 89.17%, with Kappa statistic increased from 0.7502459 to 0.8026135, respectively. The accuracy in this classification suggested that this strategy for the selection of training area, interpretation approaches and number of reference data used were importance to perform better classification result.

Keywords: Image Classification, Reference Data, Accuracy Assessment, Kappa Statistic, Forest Land Cover

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Authors: Melis Inalpulat, Levent Genc

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In the present study, an attempt was made to state the Land Use Land Cover (LULC) transformation over three decades around the urban regions of Balıkesir, Bursa, and Çanakkale provincial centers (PCs) in Turkey. Landsat imageries acquired in 1984, 1999 and 2014 were used to determine the LULC change. Images were classified using the supervised classification technique and five main LULC classes were considered including forest (F), agricultural land (A), residential area (urban) - bare soil (R-B), water surface (W), and other (O). Change detection analyses were conducted for 1984-1999 and 1999-2014, and the results were evaluated. Conversions of LULC types to R-B class were investigated. In addition, population changes (1985-2014) were assessed depending on census data, the relations between population and the urban areas were stated, and future populations and urban area needs were forecasted for 2030. The results of LULC analysis indicated that urban areas, which are covered under R-B class, were expanded in all PCs. During 1984-1999 R-B class within Balıkesir, Bursa and Çanakkale PCs were found to have increased by 7.1%, 8.4%, and 2.9%, respectively. The trend continued in the 1999-2014 term and the increment percentages reached to 15.7%, 15.5%, and 10.2% at the end of 30-year period (1984-2014). Furthermore, since A class in all provinces was found to be the principal contributor for the R-B class, urban sprawl lead to the loss of agricultural lands. Moreover, the areas of R-B classes were highly correlated with population within all PCs (R²>0.992). Depending on this situation, both future populations and R-B class areas were forecasted. The estimated values of increase in the R-B class areas for Balıkesir, Bursa, and Çanakkale PCs were 1,586 ha, 7,999 ha and 854 ha, respectively. Due to this fact, the forecasted values for 2,030 are 7,838 ha, 27,866, and 2,486 ha for Balıkesir, Bursa, and Çanakkale, and thus, 7.7%, 8.2%, and 9.7% more R-B class areas are expected to locate in PCs in respect to the same order.

Keywords: Landsat, LULC change, population, urban sprawl.

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Authors: Rahmi Kafadar, Levent Genc

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In present study, it was aimed to determine potential agricultural lands (PALs) in Gokceada (Imroz) Island of Canakkale province, Turkey. Seven-band Landsat 8 OLI images acquired on July 12 and August 13, 2013, and their 14-band combination image were used to identify current Land Use Land Cover (LULC) status. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was applied to three Landsat datasets in order to reduce the correlation between the bands. A total of six Original and PCA images were classified using supervised classification method to obtain the LULC maps including 6 main classes (“Forest”, “Agriculture”, “Water Surface”, “Residential Area- Bare Soil”, “Reforestation” and “Other”). Accuracy assessment was performed by checking the accuracy of 120 randomized points for each LULC maps. The best overall accuracy and Kappa statistic values (90.83%, 0.8791% respectively) were found for PCA images which were generated from 14-bands combined images called 3- B/JA. Digital Elevation Model (DEM) with 15 m spatial resolution (ASTER) was used to consider topographical characteristics. Soil properties were obtained by digitizing 1:25000 scaled soil maps of Rural Services Directorate General. Potential Agricultural Lands (PALs) were determined using Geographic information Systems (GIS). Procedure was applied considering that “Other” class of LULC map may be used for agricultural purposes in the future properties. Overlaying analysis was conducted using Slope (S), Land Use Capability Class (LUCC), Other Soil Properties (OSP) and Land Use Capability Sub-Class (SUBC) properties. A total of 901.62 ha areas within “Other” class (15798.2 ha) of LULC map were determined as PALs. These lands were ranked as “Very Suitable”, “Suitable”, “Moderate Suitable” and “Low Suitable”. It was determined that the 8.03 ha were classified as “Very Suitable” while 18.59 ha as suitable and 11.44 ha as “Moderate Suitable” for PALs. In addition, 756.56 ha were found to be “Low Suitable”. The results obtained from this preliminary study can serve as basis for further studies.

Keywords: Digital Elevation Model (DEM), Geographic Information Systems (GIS), LANDSAT 8 OLI-TIRS, Land Use Land Cover (LULC).

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Authors: Doseong Eom, Jeongmin Kim, Kwang Ryel Ryu

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Large exhibition halls require a lot of energy to maintain comfortable atmosphere for the visitors viewing inside. One way of reducing the energy cost is to have thermal energy storage systems installed so that the thermal energy can be stored in the middle of night when the energy price is low and then used later when the price is high. To minimize the overall energy cost, however, we should be able to decide how much energy to save during which time period exactly. If we can foresee future energy load and the corresponding cost, we will be able to make such decisions reasonably. In this paper, we use machine learning technique to obtain models for predicting weather conditions and the number of visitors on hourly basis for the next day. Based on the energy load thus predicted, we build a cost-optimal daily operation plan for the thermal energy storage systems and cooling and heating facilities through simulation-based optimization.

Keywords: Building energy management, machine learning, simulation-based optimization, operation planning.

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Authors: Suppara Charoenpoom

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This paper was aimed to survey the level of awareness of traditional grocery stores in Bangkok in these categories: location, service quality, risk, shopping, worthwhile, shopping satisfaction, and future shopping intention. The paper was also aimed to survey factors influencing the decision to shop at traditional grocery stores in Bangkok in the future. The findings revealed that consumers had a high level of awareness of traditional grocery stores in Bangkok. Consumers were aware that the price was higher and it was riskier to buy goods and services at traditional grocery stores but they still had a high level of preference to patronage traditional grocery stores. This was due to the reasons that there was a high level of satisfaction from the factors of the friendliness of the owner, the ability to negotiate the price, the ability to buy on credit, free delivery, and the enjoyment to meet with other customers in the same neighborhood.

Keywords: Business Management, Thai Economy, Traditional Grocery Store.

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Authors: R. Eslami Farsani, A. Shokuhfar, A. Sedghi

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Carbon fibers are fabricated from different materials, such as special polyacrylonitrile (PAN) fibers, rayon fibers and pitch. Among these three groups of materials, PAN fibers are the most widely used precursor for the manufacture of carbon fibers. The process of fabrication carbon fibers from special PAN fibers includes two steps; oxidative stabilization at low temperature and carbonization at high temperatures in an inert atmosphere. Due to the high price of raw materials (special PAN fibers), carbon fibers are still expensive. In the present work the main goal is making carbon fibers from low price commercial PAN fibers with modified chemical compositions. The results show that in case of conducting completes stabilization process, it is possible to produce carbon fibers with desirable tensile strength from this type of PAN fibers. To this matter, thermal characteristics of commercial PAN fibers were investigated and based upon the obtained results, with some changes in conventional procedure of stabilization in terms of temperature and time variables; the desirable conditions of complete stabilization is achieved.

Keywords: Modified Commercial PAN Fibers, Stabilization, Carbonization, Carbon Fibers.

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Authors: Karim Shiraazi, Mahyar Asheghi Milani, Alireza Sadeghi, Eram Azami, Ahadollah Azami

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A passive system "Qanat" is collection of some underground wells. A mother-well was dug in a place far from the city where they could reach to the water table maybe 100 meters underground, they dug other wells to direct water toward the city, with minimum possible gradient. Using the slope of the earth they could bring water close to the surface in the city. The source of water or the appearance of Qanat, land slope and the ownership lines are the important and effective factors in the formation of routes and the segment division of lands to the extent that making use of Qanat as the techniques of extracting underground waters creates a channel of routes with an organic order and hierarchy coinciding the slope of land and it also guides the Qanat waters in the tradition texture of salt desert and border provinces of it. Qanats are excavated in a specified distinction from each other. The quantity of water provided by Qanats depends on the kind of land, distance from mountain, geographical situation of them and the rate of water supply from the underground land. The rate of underground waters, possibility of Qanat excavation, number of Qanats and rate of their water supply from one hand and the quantity of cultivable fertile lands from the other hand are the important natural factors making the size of cities. In the same manner the cities with several Qanats have multi central textures. The location of cities is in direct relation with land quality, soil fertility and possibility of using underground water by excavating Qanats. Observing the allowable distance for Qanat watering is a determining factor for distance between villages and cities. Topography, land slope, soil quality, watering system, ownership, kind of cultivation, etc. are the effective factors in directing Qanats for excavation and guiding water toward the cultivable lands and it also causes the formation of different textures in land division of farming provinces. Several divisions such as orderly and wide, inorderly, thin and long, comb like, etc. are the introduction to organic order. And at the same time they are complete coincidence with environmental conditions in the typical development of ecological architecture and planning in the traditional cities and settlements order.

Keywords: Qanat, Settlement Formation, Hot-Arid Region, Sustainable Development

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Authors: Xuguang Leng

Abstract:

The theory of tectonic plate asteroid driver provides that comet and asteroid collisions have ample energy to fracture, move, and deform tectonic plate. The enormous kinetic energy of an asteroid collision is dissipated through the fracture and violent movement of the tectonic plates, and stored in the plate deformations. The stored energy will be released in the future through plate slow movement. The reflection of plate edge upwards upon collision impact causes the plate to sit on top of adjacent plate and creates the subduction plate. Higher probability and higher energy of asteroid collision in the equator area provides the net energy to drive heavier land plates to higher latitudes, offsetting the tidal and self spin forces, creating a more random land plates distribution. The trend of asteroid collisions is less frequency and intensity as loose objects are merging into the planets and Jupiter is taking ever larger shares of collisions. As overall energy input from asteroid collision decreases, plate movement is slowing down and eventually land plates will congregate towards equator area. The current trajectory of plate movements is the cumulative effect of past asteroid collisions, and can be altered, new plates be created, by future collisions.

Keywords: Tectonic plate, Earth, asteroid, comet.

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Authors: Mengmeng Du, Noboru Noguchi, Hiroshi Okamoto, Noriko Kobayashi

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This paper introduced a topographic mapping system with time-saving and simplicity advantages based on integration of Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data and Post Processing Kinematic Global Positioning System (PPK GPS) data. This topographic mapping system used a low-altitude Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) as a platform to conduct land survey in a low-cost, efficient, and totally autonomous manner. An experiment in a small-scale sugarcane farmland was conducted in Queensland, Australia. Subsequently, we synchronized LiDAR distance measurements that were corrected by using attitude information from gyroscope with PPK GPS coordinates for generation of precision topographic maps, which could be further utilized for such applications like precise land leveling and drainage management. The results indicated that LiDAR distance measurements and PPK GPS altitude reached good accuracy of less than 0.015 m.

Keywords: Land survey, light detection and ranging, post processing kinematic global positioning system, precision agriculture, topographic map, unmanned aerial vehicle.

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Authors: Meenal Surawar, Rajashree Kotharkar

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Urban Heat Island (UHI) is found more pronounced as a prominent urban environmental concern in developing cities. To study the UHI effect in the Indian context, the Nagpur urban area has been explored in this paper using Landsat 7 ETM+ satellite images through Remote Sensing and GIS techniques. This paper intends to study the effect of LU/LC pattern on daytime Land Surface Temperature (LST) variation, contributing UHI formation within the Nagpur Urban area. Supervised LU/LC area classification was carried to study urban Change detection using ENVI 5. Change detection has been studied by carrying Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) to understand the proportion of vegetative cover with respect to built-up ratio. Detection of spectral radiance from the thermal band of satellite images was processed to calibrate LST. Specific representative areas on the basis of urban built-up and vegetation classification were selected for observation of point LST. The entire Nagpur urban area shows that, as building density increases with decrease in vegetation cover, LST increases, thereby causing the UHI effect. UHI intensity has gradually increased by 0.7°C from 2000 to 2006; however, a drastic increase has been observed with difference of 1.8°C during the period 2006 to 2013. Within the Nagpur urban area, the UHI effect was formed due to increase in building density and decrease in vegetative cover.

Keywords: Land use, land cover, land surface temperature, remote sensing, urban heat island.

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Authors: E. A. Ojoko, G. B. Umbugadu

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This study aims at describing the expenditure pattern of households on millet, maize and sorghum across income groups in Nasarawa State. A multi-stage sampling technique was used to select a sample size of 316 respondents for the study. The Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) model was adopted in this study. Results from the study shows that the average household size was five persons with dependency ratio of 52 %, which plays an important role on the household’s expenditure pattern by increasing the household budget share. On the average 82 % were male headed households with an average age of 49 years and 13 years of formal education. Results on expenditure share show that maize has the highest expenditure share of 38 % across the three income groups and that most of the price effects are significantly different from zero at 5 % significant level. This shows that the low price of maize increased its demand as compared to other cereals. Household size and age of household members are major factors affecting the demand for cereals in the study. This agrees with the fact that increased household population (size) will bring about increase consumption. The results on factors influencing preferences for cereal grains reveals that cooking quality and appearance (65.7 %) were the most important factors affecting the demand for maize in the study area. This study recommends that cereal crop production should be prioritized in government policies and farming activities that help to boost food security and alleviate poverty should be subsidized.

Keywords: Expenditure pattern, AIDS model, budget share, price cereal grains and consumption.

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Authors: M. Giannopoulou, I. Roukounis, A. Roukouni.

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Geographical Information Systems are an integral part of planning in modern technical systems. Nowadays referred to as Spatial Decision Support Systems, as they allow synergy database management systems and models within a single user interface machine and they are important tools in spatial design for evaluating policies and programs at all levels of administration. This work refers to the creation of a Geographical Information System in the context of a broader research in the area of influence of an under construction station of the new metro in the Greek city of Thessaloniki, which included statistical and multivariate data analysis and diagrammatic representation, mapping and interpretation of the results.

Keywords: Databases, Geographical information systems (GIS), Land-use planning, Metro stations

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Authors: Melis Inalpulat, Levent Genc, Unal Kizil, Tugce Civelek

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Livestock production is one of the most important components of rural economy. Due to the urban expansion, rural areas close to expanding cities transform into urban districts during the time. However, the legislations have some restrictions related to livestock farming in such administrative units since they tend to create environmental concerns like odor problems resulted from excessive manure production. Therefore, the existing animal operations should be moved from the settlement areas. This paper was focused on determination of suitable lands for livestock production in Canakkale province of Turkey using remote sensing (RS) data and GIS techniques. To achieve the goal, Formosat 2 and Landsat 8 imageries, Aster DEM, and 1:25000 scaled soil maps, village boundaries, and village livestock inventory records were used. The study was conducted using suitability analysis which evaluates the land in terms of limitations and potentials, and suitability range was categorized as Suitable (S) and Non-Suitable (NS). Limitations included the distances from main and crossroads, water resources and settlements, while potentials were appropriate values for slope, land use capability and land use land cover status. Village-based S land distribution results were presented, and compared with livestock inventories. Results showed that approximately 44230 ha area is inappropriate because of the distance limitations for roads and etc. (NS). Moreover, according to LULC map, 71052 ha area consists of forests, olive and other orchards, and thus, may not be suitable for building such structures (NS). In comparison, it was found that there are a total of 1228 ha S lands within study area. The village-based findings indicated that, in some villages livestock production continues on NS areas. Finally, it was suggested that organized livestock zones may be constructed to serve in more than one village after the detailed analysis complemented considering also political decisions, opinion of the local people, etc.

Keywords: GIS, livestock, LULC, remote sensing, suitable lands.

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Authors: Mehrnoosh Omati, Mahmod Reza Sahebi

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The information on land use/land cover changing plays an essential role for environmental assessment, planning and management in regional development. Remotely sensed imagery is widely used for providing information in many change detection applications. Polarimetric Synthetic aperture radar (PolSAR) image, with the discrimination capability between different scattering mechanisms, is a powerful tool for environmental monitoring applications. This paper proposes a new boundary-based segmentation algorithm as a fundamental step for land cover change detection. In this method, first, two PolSAR images are segmented using integration of marker-controlled watershed algorithm and coupled Markov random field (MRF). Then, object-based classification is performed to determine changed/no changed image objects. Compared with pixel-based support vector machine (SVM) classifier, this novel segmentation algorithm significantly reduces the speckle effect in PolSAR images and improves the accuracy of binary classification in object-based level. The experimental results on Uninhabited Aerial Vehicle Synthetic Aperture Radar (UAVSAR) polarimetric images show a 3% and 6% improvement in overall accuracy and kappa coefficient, respectively. Also, the proposed method can correctly distinguish homogeneous image parcels.

Keywords: Coupled Markov random field, environment, object-based analysis, Polarimetric SAR images.

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Authors: Nisith K. Datta, Rakesh Bharti

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The purpose of the study was to find out the effects of Aquatic and Land plyometric training on selected physical variables in intercollegiate male handball players. To achieve this purpose of the study, forty five handball players of Sardar Vallabhbhai National Institute of Technology, Surat, Gujarat were selected as players at random and their age ranged between 18 to 21 years. The selected players were divided into three equal groups of fifteen players each. Group I underwent Aquatic plyometric training, Group II underwent Land plyometric training and Group III Control group for three days per week for twelve weeks. Control Group did not participate in any special training programme apart from their regular activities as per their curriculum. The following physical fitness variables namely speed; leg explosive power and agility were selected as dependent variables. All the players of three groups were tested on selected dependent variables prior to and immediately after the training programme. The analysis of covariance was used to analyze the significant difference, if any among the groups. Since, three groups were compared, whenever the obtained ‘F’ ratio for adjusted posttest was found to be significant, the Scheffe’s test to find out the paired mean differences, if any. The 0.05 level of confidence was fixed as the level of significance to test the ‘F’ ratio obtained by the analysis of covariance, which was considered as an appropriate. The result of the study indicates due to Aquatic and Land plyometric training on speed, explosive power, and agility has been improved significantly.

Keywords: Aquatic training, explosive power, plyometric training, speed.

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Authors: Othman Maklouf, Abdurazag Ghila, Ahmed Abdulla

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This paper introduces a low cost INS/GPS algorithm for land vehicle navigation application. The data fusion process is done with an extended Kalman filter in cascade configuration mode. In order to perform numerical simulations, MATLAB software has been developed. Loosely coupled configuration is considered. The results obtained in this work demonstrate that a low-cost INS/GPS navigation system is partially capable of meeting the performance requirements for land vehicle navigation. The relative effectiveness of the kalman filter implementation in integrated GPS/INS navigation algorithm is highlighted. The paper also provides experimental results; field test using a car is carried out.

Keywords: GPS, INS, IMU, Kalman filter.

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Authors: Abdalla Kablan, Joseph Falzon

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This paper is motivated by the aspect of uncertainty in financial decision making, and how artificial intelligence and soft computing, with its uncertainty reducing aspects can be used for algorithmic trading applications that trade in high frequency. This paper presents an optimized high frequency trading system that has been combined with various moving averages to produce a hybrid system that outperforms trading systems that rely solely on moving averages. The paper optimizes an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system that takes both the price and its moving average as input, learns to predict price movements from training data consisting of intraday data, dynamically switches between the best performing moving averages, and performs decision making of when to buy or sell a certain currency in high frequency.

Keywords: Financial decision making, High frequency trading, Adaprive neuro-fuzzy systems, moving average strategy.

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Authors: Parikshit Dutta, Mathieu Saujot, Elise Arnaud, Benoit Lefevre, Emmanuel Prados

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In this work, propagation of uncertainty during calibration process of TRANUS, an integrated land use and transport model (ILUTM), has been investigated. It has also been examined, through a sensitivity analysis, which input parameters affect the variation of the outputs the most. Moreover, a probabilistic verification methodology of calibration process, which equates the observed and calculated production, has been proposed. The model chosen as an application is the model of the city of Grenoble, France. For sensitivity analysis and uncertainty propagation, Monte Carlo method was employed, and a statistical hypothesis test was used for verification. The parameters of the induced demand function in TRANUS, were assumed as uncertain in the present case. It was found that, if during calibration, TRANUS converges, then with a high probability the calibration process is verified. Moreover, a weak correlation was found between the inputs and the outputs of the calibration process. The total effect of the inputs on outputs was investigated, and the output variation was found to be dictated by only a few input parameters.

Keywords: Uncertainty propagation, sensitivity analysis, calibration under uncertainty, hypothesis testing, integrated land use and transport models, TRANUS, Grenoble.

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Authors: Saba Gachpaz, Hamid Reza Heidari

Abstract:

The sharp increase in population growth leads to more pressure on agricultural areas to satisfy the food supply. This necessitates increased resource consumption and underscores the importance of addressing sustainable agriculture development along with other environmental considerations. Land-use management is a crucial factor in obtaining optimum productivity. Machine learning is a widely used technique in the agricultural sector, from yield prediction to customer behavior. This method focuses on learning and provides patterns and correlations from our data set. In this study, nine physical control factors, namely, soil classification, electrical conductivity, normalized difference water index (NDWI), groundwater level, elevation, annual precipitation, pH of water, annual mean temperature, and slope in the alluvial plain in Khuzestan (an agricultural hotspot in Iran) are used to decide the best agricultural land use for both rainfed and irrigated agriculture for 10 different crops. For this purpose, each variable was imported into Arc GIS, and a raster layer was obtained. In the next level, by using training samples, all layers were imported into the python environment. A random forest model was applied, and the weight of each variable was specified. In the final step, results were visualized using a digital elevation model, and the importance of all factors for each one of the crops was obtained. Our results show that despite 62% of the study area being allocated to agricultural purposes, only 42.9% of these areas can be defined as a suitable class for cultivation purposes.

Keywords: Land suitability, machine learning, random forest, sustainable agriculture.

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Authors: Vinko Lešić, Mario Vašak, Anita Martinčević, Marko Gulin, Antonio Starčić, Hrvoje Novak

Abstract:

With 40% of total world energy consumption, building systems are developing into technically complex large energy consumers suitable for application of sophisticated power management approaches to largely increase the energy efficiency and even make them active energy market participants. Centralized control system of building heating and cooling managed by economically-optimal model predictive control shows promising results with estimated 30% of energy efficiency increase. The research is focused on implementation of such a method on a case study performed on two floors of our faculty building with corresponding sensors wireless data acquisition, remote heating/cooling units and central climate controller. Building walls are mathematically modeled with corresponding material types, surface shapes and sizes. Models are then exploited to predict thermal characteristics and changes in different building zones. Exterior influences such as environmental conditions and weather forecast, people behavior and comfort demands are all taken into account for deriving price-optimal climate control. Finally, a DC microgrid with photovoltaics, wind turbine, supercapacitor, batteries and fuel cell stacks is added to make the building a unit capable of active participation in a price-varying energy market. Computational burden of applying model predictive control on such a complex system is relaxed through a hierarchical decomposition of the microgrid and climate control, where the former is designed as higher hierarchical level with pre-calculated price-optimal power flows control, and latter is designed as lower level control responsible to ensure thermal comfort and exploit the optimal supply conditions enabled by microgrid energy flows management. Such an approach is expected to enable the inclusion of more complex building subsystems into consideration in order to further increase the energy efficiency.

Keywords: Energy-efficient buildings, Hierarchical model predictive control, Microgrid power flow optimization, Price-optimal building climate control.

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Authors: K. Nirmala Devi, V. Murali Bhaskaran

Abstract:

Traditional document representation for classification follows Bag of Words (BoW) approach to represent the term weights. The conventional method uses the Vector Space Model (VSM) to exploit the statistical information of terms in the documents and they fail to address the semantic information as well as order of the terms present in the documents. Although, the phrase based approach follows the order of the terms present in the documents rather than semantics behind the word. Therefore, a semantic concept based approach is used in this paper for enhancing the semantics by incorporating the ontology information. In this paper a novel method is proposed to forecast the intraday stock market price directional movement based on the sentiments from Twitter and money control news articles. The stock market forecasting is a very difficult and highly complicated task because it is affected by many factors such as economic conditions, political events and investor’s sentiment etc. The stock market series are generally dynamic, nonparametric, noisy and chaotic by nature. The sentiment analysis along with wisdom of crowds can automatically compute the collective intelligence of future performance in many areas like stock market, box office sales and election outcomes. The proposed method utilizes collective sentiments for stock market to predict the stock price directional movements. The collective sentiments in the above social media have powerful prediction on the stock price directional movements as up/down by using Granger Causality test.

Keywords: Bag of Words, Collective Sentiments, Ontology, Semantic relations, Sentiments, Social media, Stock Prediction, Twitter, Vector Space Model and wisdom of crowds.

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Authors: Haidy S. Ghali, Engy Serag, A. Samer Ezeldin

Abstract:

Copper is an essential raw material used in the construction industry. During 2021 and the first half of 2022, the global market suffered from a significant fluctuation in copper raw material prices due to the aftermath of both the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war which exposed its consumers to an unexpected financial risk. Thereto, this paper aims to develop two hybrid price prediction models using artificial neural network and long short-term memory (ANN-LSTM), by Python, that can forecast the average monthly copper prices, traded in the London Metal Exchange; the first model is a multivariate model that forecasts the copper price of the next 1-month and the second is a univariate model that predicts the copper prices of the upcoming three months. Historical data of average monthly London Metal Exchange copper prices are collected from January 2009 till July 2022 and potential external factors are identified and employed in the multivariate model. These factors lie under three main categories: energy prices, and economic indicators of the three major exporting countries of copper depending on the data availability. Before developing the LSTM models, the collected external parameters are analyzed with respect to the copper prices using correlation, and multicollinearity tests in R software; then, the parameters are further screened to select the parameters that influence the copper prices. Then, the two LSTM models are developed, and the dataset is divided into training, validation, and testing sets. The results show that the performance of the 3-month prediction model is better than the 1-month prediction model; but still, both models can act as predicting tools for diverse economic situations.

Keywords: Copper prices, prediction model, neural network, time series forecasting.

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Authors: Sirirat Taneerananon

Abstract:

This paper presents the results of a study of the ultra-poor in the south of Thailand, revisited after 10 years since the original study in 2000. The original study was conducted in four provinces. The first two namely Phatthalung and Nakorn were chosen to represent the Thai Buddhists and the others, Satun and Pattani were chosen to represent the Thai Muslims. For this study, only the results from the three provinces except Pattani are reported as it was difficult and dangerous to conduct fieldwork in Pattani due to the continued unrest in the area since 2005.

The objectives of the study are to find out the changes of the poverty situation after 10 years and to see the impacts of the poverty reduction projects implemented by the government on the poor. The research methodology used both quantitative and qualitative methods. The same villages in the four provinces studied in 1999 were again chosen. In each village, five ultra-poor people and heads of the villages were interviewed. The results show that the poverty situation of the ultra-poor groups has not changed much since they lacked the basic key factor to get themselves out of poverty: The ownership of land. Their chronic poverty situation has been passed on from the last generation. In the province of Phatthalung, the ultra-poor have improved in terms of economic situation because of the big increase in the price of rubber. However, the same could not be said for other provinces. Even though the government’s projects have not reduced the poverty directly, the projects have significantly contributed to the improvement of the quality of life of the poor and the people in the areas. 

Keywords: Poverty, Southern Thailand, Ultra-poor.

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Authors: Sameh Abu El-Soud, Zahra Zayed, Safwan Khedr, Adel M. Belal

Abstract:

The population increase in Egypt is urging for horizontal land development which became a demand to allow the benefit of different natural resources and expand from the narrow Nile valley. However, this development is facing challenges preventing land development and agriculture development. Desertification and moving sand dunes in the west sector of Egypt are considered the major obstacle that is blocking the ideal land use and development. In the proposed research, the sandy soil is treated biologically using Bacillus pasteurii bacteria as these bacteria have the ability to bond the sand partials to change its state of loose sand to cemented sand, which reduces the moving ability of the sand dunes. The procedure of implementing the Microbial Induced Carbonate Precipitation Technique (MICP) technique is examined, and the different factors affecting on this process such as the medium of bacteria sample preparation, the optical density (OD600), the reactant concentration, injection rates and intervals are highlighted. Based on the findings of the MICP treatment for sandy soil, conclusions and future recommendations are reached.

Keywords: Soil stabilization, biological treatment, MICP, sand cementation.

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