TY - JFULL AU - Parikshit Dutta and Mathieu Saujot and Elise Arnaud and Benoit Lefevre and Emmanuel Prados PY - 2012/6/ TI - Uncertainty Propagation and Sensitivity Analysis During Calibration of an Integrated Land Use and Transport Model T2 - International Journal of Economics and Management Engineering SP - 831 EP - 840 VL - 6 SN - 1307-6892 UR - https://publications.waset.org/pdf/12927 PU - World Academy of Science, Engineering and Technology NX - Open Science Index 65, 2012 N2 - In this work, propagation of uncertainty during calibration process of TRANUS, an integrated land use and transport model (ILUTM), has been investigated. It has also been examined, through a sensitivity analysis, which input parameters affect the variation of the outputs the most. Moreover, a probabilistic verification methodology of calibration process, which equates the observed and calculated production, has been proposed. The model chosen as an application is the model of the city of Grenoble, France. For sensitivity analysis and uncertainty propagation, Monte Carlo method was employed, and a statistical hypothesis test was used for verification. The parameters of the induced demand function in TRANUS, were assumed as uncertain in the present case. It was found that, if during calibration, TRANUS converges, then with a high probability the calibration process is verified. Moreover, a weak correlation was found between the inputs and the outputs of the calibration process. The total effect of the inputs on outputs was investigated, and the output variation was found to be dictated by only a few input parameters. ER -