Uncertainty Propagation and Sensitivity Analysis During Calibration of an Integrated Land Use and Transport Model

Authors: Parikshit Dutta, Mathieu Saujot, Elise Arnaud, Benoit Lefevre, Emmanuel Prados

Abstract:

In this work, propagation of uncertainty during calibration process of TRANUS, an integrated land use and transport model (ILUTM), has been investigated. It has also been examined, through a sensitivity analysis, which input parameters affect the variation of the outputs the most. Moreover, a probabilistic verification methodology of calibration process, which equates the observed and calculated production, has been proposed. The model chosen as an application is the model of the city of Grenoble, France. For sensitivity analysis and uncertainty propagation, Monte Carlo method was employed, and a statistical hypothesis test was used for verification. The parameters of the induced demand function in TRANUS, were assumed as uncertain in the present case. It was found that, if during calibration, TRANUS converges, then with a high probability the calibration process is verified. Moreover, a weak correlation was found between the inputs and the outputs of the calibration process. The total effect of the inputs on outputs was investigated, and the output variation was found to be dictated by only a few input parameters.

Keywords: Uncertainty propagation, sensitivity analysis, calibration under uncertainty, hypothesis testing, integrated land use and transport models, TRANUS, Grenoble.

Digital Object Identifier (DOI): doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1080171

References:

[1] M. Wegener. Overview of land use transport models. Handbook of transport geography and spatial systems, 5:127-146, 2004.
[2] M. Echenique. An integrated land use and transport model. Martin Centre Transactions URBAN STUDIES, UNIVERSITY OF CAMBRIDGE, 2, 1977.
[3] S. Krishnamurthy and K.M. Kockelman. Propagation of uncertainty in transportation land use models: Investigation of dram-empal and utpp predictions in austin, texas. Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, 1831(-1):219-229, 2003.
[4] M. Iacono, D. Levinson, and A. El-Geneidy. Models of transportation and land use change: a guide to the territory. Journal of Planning Literature, 22(4):323, 2008.
[5] J. Sullivan, L. Aultman-Hall, A. Troy, D. Azaria, and S. Lawe. Integrated land-use, transportation and environmental modeling: Validation case studies. Technical report, 2010.
[6] A. Saltelli, M. Ratto, T. Andres, F. Campolongo, J. Cariboni, D. Gatelli, M. Saisana, and S. Tarantola. Global sensitivity analysis: the primer. Wiley Online Library, 2008.
[7] F. Campolongo, A. Saltelli, and J. Cariboni. From screening to quantitative sensitivity analysis. a unified approach. Computer Physics Communications, 2011.
[8] H.A. Martens and P. Dardenne. Validation and verification of regression in small data sets. Chemometrics and intelligent laboratory systems, 44(1-2):99-121, 1998.
[9] H.S. Mahmassani. Uncertainty in transportation systems evaluation: issues and approaches. Transportation planning and technology, 9(1):1- 12, 1984.
[10] Y. Zhao and K.M. Kockelman. The propagation of uncertainty through travel demand models: An exploratory analysis. The Annals of regional science, 36(1):145-163, 2002.
[11] P. Waddell. Integrated land use and transportation planning and modelling: addressing challenges in research and practice. Transport Reviews, 31(2):209-229, 2011.
[12] A. Pradhan and K.M. Kockelman. Uncertainty propagation in an integrated land use-transportation modeling framework: output variation via urbansim. Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, 1805(-1):128-135, 2002.
[13] P. Waddell. Modeling urban development for land use, transportation, and environmental planning. Journal of the American Planning Association, 68(3), 2002.
[14] J. Duthie, A. Voruganti, K.M. Kockelman, and S.T. Waller. Highway improvement project rankings due to uncertain model inputs: Application of traditional transportation and land use models. Journal of Urban Planning and Development, 136:294, 2010.
[15] H. Sevc'─▒kov'a, A.E. Raftery, and P.A. Waddell. Assessing uncertainty in urban simulations using bayesian melding. Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, 41(6):652-669, 2007.
[16] H. Sevc'─▒kov'a, A.E. Raftery, and P.A. Waddell. Uncertain benefits: Application of bayesian melding to the alaskan way viaduct in seattle. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 45(6):540-553, 2011.
[17] J.D. Hunt and D.C. Simmonds. Theory and application of an integrated land use and transport modelling framework. Environment and Planning B, 20:221-221, 1993.
[18] M.J. Clay and R.A. Johnston. Multivariate uncertainty analysis of an integrated land use and transportation model: Meplan. Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, 11(3):191-203, 2006.
[19] T. de la Barra. Integrated land use and transport modeling: the tranus experience. Planning Support Systems: Integrating Geographic Information Systems, Models and Visualization Tools Eds RK Brail, RE Klosterman (ESRI Press, Redlands, CA) pp, pages 129-156, 2001.
[20] T. de la Barra, B. P'erez, and N. Vera. Tranus-j: putting large models into small computers. Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design, 11(1):87-101, 1984.
[21] J. Anez. Development of tranus: An integrated land use and transport modeling system. Technical report, Mimeo from Oregon DOT), 1994, 1994.
[22] V. Vichiensan, K. Miyamoto, M. Roychansyah, and Y. Tokunaga. Evaluation system of policy measure alternatives for a metropolis based on tranus from the view point of sustainability. Journal of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies, 6:3803-3818, 2005.
[23] T. de la Barra. The mathematical and algorithmic structure of tranus. TRANUS manual available at http://www.modelistica.com, 1998.
[24] A. Saltelli, K. Chan, E.M. Scott, et al. Sensitivity analysis, volume 134. Wiley New York, 2000.
[25] M.E. Magnello. Karl pearson-s gresham lectures: Wfr weldon, speciation and the origins of pearsonian statistics. Reporter, 1878(79):38, 1996.
[26] A.H.S. Ang and W.H. Tang. Probability concepts in engineering. Planning, 1(4):1-3, 2004.
[27] M. Saujot and B. Lef'evre. Simuler les dynamiques urbaines avec tranus: une m'ethodologie d-application comme passerelle entre th'eorie et territoire. Article under review in Les Cahiers Scientifiques du Transport, 2011.
[28] T. de la Barra. Integrated land use and transport modelling. Decision chains and hierarchies. Number 12. 1989.