Search results for: normal and log-normal distribution
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 2606

Search results for: normal and log-normal distribution

2606 Parametric Modeling Approach for Call Holding Times for IP based Public Safety Networks via EM Algorithm

Authors: Badarch Tuyatsetseg

Abstract:

This paper presents parametric probability density models for call holding times (CHTs) into emergency call center based on the actual data collected for over a week in the public Emergency Information Network (EIN) in Mongolia. When the set of chosen candidates of Gamma distribution family is fitted to the call holding time data, it is observed that the whole area in the CHT empirical histogram is underestimated due to spikes of higher probability and long tails of lower probability in the histogram. Therefore, we provide the Gaussian parametric model of a mixture of lognormal distributions with explicit analytical expressions for the modeling of CHTs of PSNs. Finally, we show that the CHTs for PSNs are fitted reasonably by a mixture of lognormal distributions via the simulation of expectation maximization algorithm. This result is significant as it expresses a useful mathematical tool in an explicit manner of a mixture of lognormal distributions.

Keywords: A mixture of lognormal distributions, modeling call holding times, public safety network.

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2605 Experimental Investigation of On-Body Channel Modelling at 2.45 GHz

Authors: Hasliza A. Rahim, Fareq Malek, Nur A. M. Affendi, Azuwa Ali, Norshafinash Saudin, Latifah Mohamed

Abstract:

This paper presents the experimental investigation of on-body channel fading at 2.45 GHz considering two effects of the user body movement; stationary and mobile. A pair of body-worn antennas was utilized in this measurement campaign. A statistical analysis was performed by comparing the measured on-body path loss to five well-known distributions; lognormal, normal, Nakagami, Weibull and Rayleigh. The results showed that the average path loss of moving arm varied higher than the path loss in sitting position for upper-arm-to-left-chest link, up to 3.5 dB. The analysis also concluded that the Nakagami distribution provided the best fit for most of on-body static link path loss in standing still and sitting position, while the arm movement can be best described by log-normal distribution.

Keywords: On-Body channel communications, fading characteristics, statistical model.

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2604 Derivation of Monotone Likelihood Ratio Using Two Sided Uniformly Normal Distribution Techniques

Authors: D. A. Farinde

Abstract:

In this paper, two-sided uniformly normal distribution techniques were used in the derivation of monotone likelihood ratio. The approach mainly employed the parameters of the distribution for a class of all size a. The derivation technique is fast, direct and less burdensome when compared to some existing methods.

Keywords: Neyman-Pearson Lemma, Normal distribution

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2603 3D Model Retrieval based on Normal Vector Interpolation Method

Authors: Ami Kim, Oubong Gwun, Juwhan Song

Abstract:

In this paper, we proposed the distribution of mesh normal vector direction as a feature descriptor of a 3D model. A normal vector shows the entire shape of a model well. The distribution of normal vectors was sampled in proportion to each polygon's area so that the information on the surface with less surface area may be less reflected on composing a feature descriptor in order to enhance retrieval performance. At the analysis result of ANMRR, the enhancement of approx. 12.4%~34.7% compared to the existing method has also been indicated.

Keywords: Interpolated Normal Vector, Feature Descriptor, 3DModel Retrieval.

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2602 Speed Characteristics of Mixed Traffic Flow on Urban Arterials

Authors: Ashish Dhamaniya, Satish Chandra

Abstract:

Speed and traffic volume data are collected on different sections of four lane and six lane roads in three metropolitan cities in India. Speed data are analyzed to fit the statistical distribution to individual vehicle speed data and all vehicles speed data. It is noted that speed data of individual vehicle generally follows a normal distribution but speed data of all vehicle combined at a section of urban road may or may not follow the normal distribution depending upon the composition of traffic stream. A new term Speed Spread Ratio (SSR) is introduced in this paper which is the ratio of difference in 85th and 50th percentile speed to the difference in 50th and 15th percentile speed. If SSR is unity then speed data are truly normally distributed. It is noted that on six lane urban roads, speed data follow a normal distribution only when SSR is in the range of 0.86 – 1.11. The range of SSR is validated on four lane roads also.

Keywords: Normal distribution, percentile speed, speed spread ratio, traffic volume.

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2601 An Estimating Parameter of the Mean in Normal Distribution by Maximum Likelihood, Bayes, and Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods

Authors: Autcha Araveeporn

Abstract:

This paper is to compare the parameter estimation of the mean in normal distribution by Maximum Likelihood (ML), Bayes, and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. The ML estimator is estimated by the average of data, the Bayes method is considered from the prior distribution to estimate Bayes estimator, and MCMC estimator is approximated by Gibbs sampling from posterior distribution. These methods are also to estimate a parameter then the hypothesis testing is used to check a robustness of the estimators. Data are simulated from normal distribution with the true parameter of mean 2, and variance 4, 9, and 16 when the sample sizes is set as 10, 20, 30, and 50. From the results, it can be seen that the estimation of MLE, and MCMC are perceivably different from the true parameter when the sample size is 10 and 20 with variance 16. Furthermore, the Bayes estimator is estimated from the prior distribution when mean is 1, and variance is 12 which showed the significant difference in mean with variance 9 at the sample size 10 and 20.

Keywords: Bayes method, Markov Chain Monte Carlo method, Maximum Likelihood method, normal distribution.

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2600 Study of a BVAR(p) Process Applied to U.S. Commodity Market Data

Authors: Jan Sindelar

Abstract:

The paper presents an applied study of a multivariate AR(p) process fitted to daily data from U.S. commodity futures markets with the use of Bayesian statistics. In the first part a detailed description of the methods used is given. In the second part two BVAR models are chosen one with assumption of lognormal, the second with normal distribution of prices conditioned on the parameters. For a comparison two simple benchmark models are chosen that are commonly used in todays Financial Mathematics. The article compares the quality of predictions of all the models, tries to find an adequate rate of forgetting of information and questions the validity of Efficient Market Hypothesis in the semi-strong form.

Keywords: Vector auto-regression, forecasting, financial, Bayesian, efficient markets.

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2599 Determination of the Best Fit Probability Distribution for Annual Rainfall in Karkheh River at Iran

Authors: Karim Hamidi Machekposhti, Hossein Sedghi

Abstract:

This study was designed to find the best-fit probability distribution of annual rainfall based on 50 years sample (1966-2015) in the Karkheh river basin at Iran using six probability distributions: Normal, 2-Parameter Log Normal, 3-Parameter Log Normal, Pearson Type 3, Log Pearson Type 3 and Gumbel distribution. The best fit probability distribution was selected using Stormwater Management and Design Aid (SMADA) software and based on the Residual Sum of Squares (R.S.S) between observed and estimated values Based on the R.S.S values of fit tests, the Log Pearson Type 3 and then Pearson Type 3 distributions were found to be the best-fit probability distribution at the Jelogir Majin and Pole Zal rainfall gauging station. The annual values of expected rainfall were calculated using the best fit probability distributions and can be used by hydrologists and design engineers in future research at studied region and other region in the world.

Keywords: Log Pearson Type 3, SMADA, rainfall, Karkheh River.

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2598 Coverage Probability of Confidence Intervals for the Normal Mean and Variance with Restricted Parameter Space

Authors: Sa-aat Niwitpong

Abstract:

Recent articles have addressed the problem to construct the confidence intervals for the mean of a normal distribution where the parameter space is restricted, see for example Wang [Confidence intervals for the mean of a normal distribution with restricted parameter space. Journal of Statistical Computation and Simulation, Vol. 78, No. 9, 2008, 829–841.], we derived, in this paper, analytic expressions of the coverage probability and the expected length of confidence interval for the normal mean when the whole parameter space is bounded. We also construct the confidence interval for the normal variance with restricted parameter for the first time and its coverage probability and expected length are also mathematically derived. As a result, one can use these criteria to assess the confidence interval for the normal mean and variance when the parameter space is restricted without the back up from simulation experiments.

Keywords: Confidence interval, coverage probability, expected length, restricted parameter space.

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2597 Confidence Interval for the Inverse of a Normal Mean with a Known Coefficient of Variation

Authors: Arunee Wongkha, Suparat Niwitpong, Sa-aat Niwitpong

Abstract:

In this paper, we propose two new confidence intervals for the inverse of a normal mean with a known coefficient of variation. One of new confidence intervals for the inverse of a normal mean with a known coefficient of variation is constructed based on the pivotal statistic Z where Z is a standard normal distribution and another confidence interval is constructed based on the generalized confidence interval, presented by Weerahandi. We examine the performance of these confidence intervals in terms of coverage probabilities and average lengths via Monte Carlo simulation.

Keywords: The inverse of a normal mean, confidence interval, generalized confidence intervals, known coefficient of variation.

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2596 Confidence Intervals for the Difference of Two Normal Population Variances

Authors: Suparat Niwitpong

Abstract:

Motivated by the recent work of Herbert, Hayen, Macaskill and Walter [Interval estimation for the difference of two independent variances. Communications in Statistics, Simulation and Computation, 40: 744-758, 2011.], we investigate, in this paper, new confidence intervals for the difference between two normal population variances based on the generalized confidence interval of Weerahandi [Generalized Confidence Intervals. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 88(423): 899-905, 1993.] and the closed form method of variance estimation of Zou, Huo and Taleban [Simple confidence intervals for lognormal means and their differences with environmental applications. Environmetrics 20: 172-180, 2009]. Monte Carlo simulation results indicate that our proposed confidence intervals give a better coverage probability than that of the existing confidence interval. Also two new confidence intervals perform similarly based on their coverage probabilities and their average length widths.

Keywords: Confidence interval, generalized confidence interval, the closed form method of variance estimation, variance.

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2595 Seismic Base Shear Force Depending on Building Fundamental Period and Site Conditions: Deterministic Formulation and Probabilistic Analysis

Authors: S. Dorbani, M. Badaoui, D. Benouar

Abstract:

The aim of this paper is to investigate the effect of the building fundamental period of reinforced concrete buildings of (6, 9, and 12-storey), with different floor plans: Symmetric, mono-symmetric, and unsymmetric. These structures are erected at different epicentral distances. Using the Boumerdes, Algeria (2003) earthquake data, we focused primarily on the establishment of the deterministic formulation linking the base shear force to two parameters: The first one is the fundamental period that represents the numerical fingerprint of the structure, and the second one is the epicentral distance used to represent the impact of the earthquake on this force. In a second step, with a view to highlight the effect of uncertainty in these parameters on the analyzed response, these parameters are modeled as random variables with a log-normal distribution. The variability of the coefficients of variation of the chosen uncertain parameters, on the statistics on the seismic base shear force, showed that the effect of uncertainty on fundamental period on this force statistics is low compared to the epicentral distance uncertainty influence.

Keywords: Base shear force, fundamental period, epicentral distance, uncertainty, lognormal variable, statistics.

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2594 Stochastic Estimation of Wireless Traffic Parameters

Authors: Somenath Mukherjee, Raj Kumar Samanta, Gautam Sanyal

Abstract:

Different services based on different switching techniques in wireless networks leads to drastic changes in the properties of network traffic. Because of these diversities in services, network traffic is expected to undergo qualitative and quantitative variations. Hence, assumption of traffic characteristics and the prediction of network events become more complex for the wireless networks. In this paper, the traffic characteristics have been studied by collecting traces from the mobile switching centre (MSC). The traces include initiation and termination time, originating node, home station id, foreign station id. Traffic parameters namely, call interarrival and holding times were estimated statistically. The results show that call inter-arrival and distribution time in this wireless network is heavy-tailed and follow gamma distributions. They are asymptotically long-range dependent. It is also found that the call holding times are best fitted with lognormal distribution. Based on these observations, an analytical model for performance estimation is also proposed.

Keywords: Wireless networks, traffic analysis, long-range dependence, heavy-tailed distribution.

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2593 Confidence Intervals for Double Exponential Distribution: A Simulation Approach

Authors: M. Alrasheedi

Abstract:

The double exponential model (DEM), or Laplace distribution, is used in various disciplines. However, there are issues related to the construction of confidence intervals (CI), when using the distribution.In this paper, the properties of DEM are considered with intention of constructing CI based on simulated data. The analysis of pivotal equations for the models here in comparisons with pivotal equations for normal distribution are performed, and the results obtained from simulation data are presented.

Keywords: Confidence intervals, double exponential model, pivotal equations, simulation

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2592 Distribution Centers Reliability Cost in Capacitated Facility Location Problem

Authors: Mehdi Seifbarghy, Sajjad Jalali, Seyed Habib A. Rahmati

Abstract:

Recently studies in area of supply chain network (SCN) have focused on the disruption issues in distribution systems. Also this paper extends the previous literature by providing a new biobjective model for cost minimization of designing a three echelon SCN across normal and failure scenarios with considering multi capacity option for manufacturers and distribution centers. Moreover, in order to solve the problem by means of LINGO software, novel model will be reformulated through a branch of LP-Metric method called Min-Max approach.

Keywords: Scenario programming, Distribution, Multi-echelon supply chain design, Reliable facility

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2591 Clustering Mixed Data Using Non-normal Regression Tree for Process Monitoring

Authors: Youngji Yoo, Cheong-Sool Park, Jun Seok Kim, Young-Hak Lee, Sung-Shick Kim, Jun-Geol Baek

Abstract:

In the semiconductor manufacturing process, large amounts of data are collected from various sensors of multiple facilities. The collected data from sensors have several different characteristics due to variables such as types of products, former processes and recipes. In general, Statistical Quality Control (SQC) methods assume the normality of the data to detect out-of-control states of processes. Although the collected data have different characteristics, using the data as inputs of SQC will increase variations of data, require wide control limits, and decrease performance to detect outof- control. Therefore, it is necessary to separate similar data groups from mixed data for more accurate process control. In the paper, we propose a regression tree using split algorithm based on Pearson distribution to handle non-normal distribution in parametric method. The regression tree finds similar properties of data from different variables. The experiments using real semiconductor manufacturing process data show improved performance in fault detecting ability.

Keywords: Semiconductor, non-normal mixed process data, clustering, Statistical Quality Control (SQC), regression tree, Pearson distribution system.

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2590 Analytical Slope Stability Analysis Based on the Statistical Characterization of Soil Shear Strength

Authors: Bernardo C. P. Albuquerque, Darym J. F. Campos

Abstract:

Increasing our ability to solve complex engineering problems is directly related to the processing capacity of computers. By means of such equipments, one is able to fast and accurately run numerical algorithms. Besides the increasing interest in numerical simulations, probabilistic approaches are also of great importance. This way, statistical tools have shown their relevance to the modelling of practical engineering problems. In general, statistical approaches to such problems consider that the random variables involved follow a normal distribution. This assumption tends to provide incorrect results when skew data is present since normal distributions are symmetric about their means. Thus, in order to visualize and quantify this aspect, 9 statistical distributions (symmetric and skew) have been considered to model a hypothetical slope stability problem. The data modeled is the friction angle of a superficial soil in Brasilia, Brazil. Despite the apparent universality, the normal distribution did not qualify as the best fit. In the present effort, data obtained in consolidated-drained triaxial tests and saturated direct shear tests have been modeled and used to analytically derive the probability density function (PDF) of the safety factor of a hypothetical slope based on Mohr-Coulomb rupture criterion. Therefore, based on this analysis, it is possible to explicitly derive the failure probability considering the friction angle as a random variable. Furthermore, it is possible to compare the stability analysis when the friction angle is modelled as a Dagum distribution (distribution that presented the best fit to the histogram) and as a Normal distribution. This comparison leads to relevant differences when analyzed in light of the risk management.

Keywords: Statistical slope stability analysis, Skew distributions, Probability of failure, Functions of random variables.

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2589 On the Analysis of IP Traffic Distribution in the Network of Suranaree University of Technology

Authors: Paramet Nualmuenwai, Chutima Prommak

Abstract:

This paper presents the IP traffic analysis. The traffic was collected from the network of Suranaree University of Technology using the software based on the Simple Network Management Protocol (SNMP). In particular, we analyze the distribution of the aggregated traffic during the hours of peak load and light load. The traffic profiles including the parameters described the traffic distributions were derived. From the statistical analysis applying three different methods, including the Kolmogorov Smirnov test, Anderson Darling test, and Chi-Squared test, we found that the IP traffic distribution is a non-normal distribution and the distributions during the peak load and the light load are different. The experimental study and analysis show high uncertainty of the IP traffic.

Keywords: IP traffic analysis, IP traffic distribution, Traffic uncertainty

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2588 Asymmetric Tukey’s Control Chart Robust to Skew and Non-Skew Process Observation

Authors: S. Sukparungsee

Abstract:

In reality, the process observations are away from the assumption that are normal distributed. The observations could be skew distributions which should use an asymmetric chart rather than symmetric chart. Consequently, this research aim to study the robustness of the asymmetric Tukey’s control chart for skew and non-skew distributions as Lognormal and Laplace distributions. Furthermore, the performances in detecting of a change in parameter of asymmetric and symmetric Tukey’s control charts are compared by Average ARL (AARL). The results found that the asymmetric performs better than symmetric Tukey’s control chart for both cases of skew and non-skew process observation.

Keywords: Asymmetric control limit, average of average run length, Tukey’s control chart and skew distributions.

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2587 An AK-Chart for the Non-Normal Data

Authors: Chia-Hau Liu, Tai-Yue Wang

Abstract:

Traditional multivariate control charts assume that measurement from manufacturing processes follows a multivariate normal distribution. However, this assumption may not hold or may be difficult to verify because not all the measurement from manufacturing processes are normal distributed in practice. This study develops a new multivariate control chart for monitoring the processes with non-normal data. We propose a mechanism based on integrating the one-class classification method and the adaptive technique. The adaptive technique is used to improve the sensitivity to small shift on one-class classification in statistical process control. In addition, this design provides an easy way to allocate the value of type I error so it is easier to be implemented. Finally, the simulation study and the real data from industry are used to demonstrate the effectiveness of the propose control charts.

Keywords: Multivariate control chart, statistical process control, one-class classification method.

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2586 On the Fp-Normal Subgroups of Finite Groups

Authors: Shitian Liu, Deqin Chen

Abstract:

Let G be a finite group, and let F be a formation of finite group. We say that a subgroup H of G is p F -normal in G if there exists a normal subgroup T of G such that HT is a permutable Hall subgroup of G and G G (H

Keywords: Finite group, Fp -normal subgroup, Sylowsubgroup, Maximal subgroup

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2585 Correspondence Theorem for Anti L-fuzzy Normal Subgroups

Authors: Jian Tang, Yunfei Yao

Abstract:

In this paper the concept of the cosets of an anti Lfuzzy normal subgroup of a group is given. Furthermore, the group G/A of cosets of an anti L-fuzzy normal subgroup A of a group G is shown to be isomorphic to a factor group of G in a natural way. Finally, we prove that if f : G1 -→ G2 is an epimorphism of groups, then there is a one-to-one order-preserving correspondence between the anti L-fuzzy normal subgroups of G2 and those of G1 which are constant on the kernel of f.

Keywords: Group; anti L-fuzzy subgroups; anti L-fuzzy normal subgroups; cosets of an anti L-fuzzy normal subgroup.

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2584 Comparison of Wind Fragility for Window System in the Simplified 10 and 15-Story Building Considering Exposure Category

Authors: Viriyavudh Sim, WooYoung Jung

Abstract:

Window system in high rise building is occasionally subjected to an excessive wind intensity, particularly during typhoon. The failure of window system did not affect overall safety of structural performance; however, it could endanger the safety of the residents. In this paper, comparison of fragility curves for window system of two residential buildings was studied. The probability of failure for individual window was determined with Monte Carlo Simulation method. Then, lognormal cumulative distribution function was used to represent the fragility. The results showed that windows located on the edge of leeward wall were more susceptible to wind load and the probability of failure for each window panel increased at higher floors.

Keywords: Wind fragility, window system, high rise building.

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2583 Appling Eyring-s Accelerated Life Testing Model to “Times to Breakdown“ of Insulating Fluid: A Combined Approach of an Accelerated and a Sequential Life Testing

Authors: D. I. De Souza, D. R. Fonseca, D. Kipper

Abstract:

In this paper, the test purpose will be to assess whether or not the accelerated model proposed by Eyring will be able to translate results for the shape and scale parameters of an underlying Weibull model, obtained under two accelerating using conditions, to expected normal using condition results for these parameters. The product being analyzed is a new type of insulate fluid, and the accelerating factor is the voltage stresses applied to the fluid at two different levels (30KV and 40KV). The normal operating voltage is 25KV. In this case, it was possible to test the insulate fluid at normal voltage using condition. Both results for the two parameters of the Weibull model, obtained under normal using condition and translated from accelerated using conditions to normal conditions, will be compared to each other to assess the accuracy of the Eyring model when the accelerating factor is only the voltage stress.

Keywords: Eyring Accelerated Model, Sequential Life Testing, Two-Parameter Weibull Distribution, Voltage Stresses.

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2582 Surfactant Stabilized Nanoemulsion: Characterization and Application in Enhanced Oil Recovery

Authors: Ajay Mandal, Achinta Bera

Abstract:

Nanoemulsions are a class of emulsions with a droplet size in the range of 50–500 nm and have attracted a great deal of attention in recent years because it is unique characteristics. The physicochemical properties of nanoemulsion suggests that it can be successfully used to recover the residual oil which is trapped in the fine pore of reservoir rock by capillary forces after primary and secondary recovery. Oil-in-water nanoemulsion which can be formed by high-energy emulsification techniques using specific surfactants can reduce oil-water interfacial tension (IFT) by 3-4 orders of magnitude. The present work is aimed on characterization of oil-inwater nanoemulsion in terms of its phase behavior, morphological studies; interfacial energy; ability to reduce the interfacial tension and understanding the mechanisms of mobilization and displacement of entrapped oil blobs by lowering interfacial tension both at the macroscopic and microscopic level. In order to investigate the efficiency of oil-water nanoemulsion in enhanced oil recovery (EOR), experiments were performed to characterize the emulsion in terms of their physicochemical properties and size distribution of the dispersed oil droplet in water phase. Synthetic mineral oil and a series of surfactants were used to prepare oil-in-water emulsions. Characterization of emulsion shows that it follows pseudo-plastic behaviour and drop size of dispersed oil phase follows lognormal distribution. Flooding experiments were also carried out in a sandpack system to evaluate the effectiveness of the nanoemulsion as displacing fluid for enhanced oil recovery. Substantial additional recoveries (more than 25% of original oil in place) over conventional water flooding were obtained in the present investigation.

Keywords: Nanoemulsion, Characterization, Enhanced Oil Recovery, Particle Size Distribution

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2581 Determination of Cd, Zn, K, pH, TNV, Organic Material and Electrical Conductivity (EC) Distribution in Agricultural Soils using Geostatistics and GIS (Case Study: South- Western of Natanz- Iran)

Authors: Abbas Hani, Seyed Ali Hoseini Abari

Abstract:

Soil chemical and physical properties have important roles in compartment of the environment and agricultural sustainability and human health. The objectives of this research is determination of spatial distribution patterns of Cd, Zn, K, pH, TNV, organic material and electrical conductivity (EC) in agricultural soils of Natanz region in Esfehan province. In this study geostatistic and non-geostatistic methods were used for prediction of spatial distribution of these parameters. 64 composite soils samples were taken at 0-20 cm depth. The study area is located in south of NATANZ agricultural lands with area of 21660 hectares. Spatial distribution of Cd, Zn, K, pH, TNV, organic material and electrical conductivity (EC) was determined using geostatistic and geographic information system. Results showed that Cd, pH, TNV and K data has normal distribution and Zn, OC and EC data had not normal distribution. Kriging, Inverse Distance Weighting (IDW), Local Polynomial Interpolation (LPI) and Redial Basis functions (RBF) methods were used to interpolation. Trend analysis showed that organic carbon in north-south and east to west did not have trend while K and TNV had second degree trend. We used some error measurements include, mean absolute error(MAE), mean squared error (MSE) and mean biased error(MBE). Ordinary kriging(exponential model), LPI(Local polynomial interpolation), RBF(radial basis functions) and IDW methods have been chosen as the best methods to interpolating of the soil parameters. Prediction maps by disjunctive kriging was shown that in whole study area was intensive shortage of organic matter and more than 63.4 percent of study area had shortage of K amount.

Keywords: Electrical conductivity, Geostatistics, Geographical Information System, TNV

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2580 Fuzzy Estimation of Parameters in Statistical Models

Authors: A. Falsafain, S. M. Taheri, M. Mashinchi

Abstract:

Using a set of confidence intervals, we develop a common approach, to construct a fuzzy set as an estimator for unknown parameters in statistical models. We investigate a method to derive the explicit and unique membership function of such fuzzy estimators. The proposed method has been used to derive the fuzzy estimators of the parameters of a Normal distribution and some functions of parameters of two Normal distributions, as well as the parameters of the Exponential and Poisson distributions.

Keywords: Confidence interval. Fuzzy number. Fuzzy estimation.

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2579 Effect of Fault Depth on Near-Fault Peak Ground Velocity

Authors: Yanyan Yu, Haiping Ding, Pengjun Chen, Yiou Sun

Abstract:

Fault depth is an important parameter to be determined in ground motion simulation, and peak ground velocity (PGV) demonstrates good application prospect. Using numerical simulation method, the variations of distribution and peak value of near-fault PGV with different fault depth were studied in detail, and the reason of some phenomena were discussed. The simulation results show that the distribution characteristics of PGV of fault-parallel (FP) component and fault-normal (FN) component are distinctly different; the value of PGV FN component is much larger than that of FP component. With the increase of fault depth, the distribution region of the FN component strong PGV moves forward along the rupture direction, while the strong PGV zone of FP component becomes gradually far away from the fault trace along the direction perpendicular to the strike. However, no matter FN component or FP component, the strong PGV distribution area and its value are both quickly reduced with increased fault depth. The results above suggest that the fault depth have significant effect on both FN component and FP component of near-fault PGV.

Keywords: Fault depth, near-fault, PGV, numerical simulation.

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2578 TNFRSF11B Gene Polymorphisms A163G and G11811C in Prediction of Osteoporosis Risk

Authors: Boroňová I., Bernasovská J., Kľoc J., Tomková Z., Petrejčíková E., Gabriková D., Mačeková S.

Abstract:

Osteoporosis is a complex health disease characterized by low bone mineral density, which is determined by an interaction of genetics with metabolic and environmental factors. Current research in genetics of osteoporosis is focused on identification of responsible genes and polymorphisms. TNFRSF11B gene plays a key role in bone remodeling. The aim of this study was to investigate the genotype and allele distribution of A163G (rs3102735) osteoprotegerin gene promoter and G1181C (rs2073618) osteoprotegerin first exon polymorphisms in the group of 180 unrelated postmenopausal women with diagnosed osteoporosis and 180 normal controls. Genomic DNA was isolated from peripheral blood leukocytes using standard methodology. Genotyping for presence of different polymorphisms was performed using the Custom Taqman®SNP Genotyping assays. Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium was tested for each SNP in the groups of participants using the chi-square (χ2) test. The distribution of investigated genotypes in the group of patients with osteoporosis were as follows: AA (66.7%), AG (32.2%), GG (1.1%) for A163G polymorphism; GG (19.4%), CG (44.4%), CC (36.1%) for G1181C polymorphism. The distribution of genotypes in normal controls were follows: AA (71.1%), AG (26.1%), GG (2.8%) for A163G polymorphism; GG (22.2%), CG (48.9%), CC (28.9%) for G1181C polymorphism. In A163G polymorphism the variant G allele was more common among patients with osteoporosis: 17.2% versus 15.8% in normal controls. Also, in G1181C polymorphism the phenomenon of more frequent occurrence of C allele in the group of patients with osteoporosis was observed (58.3% versus 53.3%). Genotype and allele distributions showed no significant differences (A163G: χ2=0.270, p=0.605; χ2=0.250, p=0.616; G1181C: χ2= 1.730, p=0.188; χ2=1.820, p=0.177). Our results represents an initial study, further studies of more numerous file and associations studies will be carried out. Knowing the distribution of genotypes is important for assessing the impact of these polymorphisms on various parameters associated with osteoporosis. Screening for identification of “at-risk” women likely to develop osteoporosis and initiating subsequent early intervention appears to be most effective strategy to substantially reduce the risks of osteoporosis.

Keywords: Osteoporosis, Real-time PCR method, SNP polymorphisms.

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2577 Internal Loading Distribution in Statically Loaded Ball Bearings Subjected to a Centric Thrust Load: Numerical Aspects

Authors: Mário C. Ricci

Abstract:

A known iterative computational procedure is used for internal normal ball loads calculation in statically loaded single-row, angular-contact ball bearings, subjected to a known thrust load, which is applied in the inner ring at the geometric bearing center line. Numerical aspects of the iterative procedure are discussed. Numerical examples results for a 218 angular-contact ball bearing have been compared with those from the literature. Twenty figures are presented showing the geometrical features, the behavior of the convergence variables and the following parameters as functions of the thrust load: normal ball loads, contact angle, distance between curvature centers, and normal ball and axial deflections between the raceways.

Keywords: Ball, Bearing, Static, Load, Iterative, Numerical, Method.

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