Search results for: long-term variability

Authors: Sofien Chtourou, Mohamed Chtourou, Omar Hammami

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Embedded systems need to respect stringent real time constraints. Various hardware components included in such systems such as cache memories exhibit variability and therefore affect execution time. Indeed, a cache memory access from an embedded microprocessor might result in a cache hit where the data is available or a cache miss and the data need to be fetched with an additional delay from an external memory. It is therefore highly desirable to predict future memory accesses during execution in order to appropriately prefetch data without incurring delays. In this paper, we evaluate the potential of several artificial neural networks for the prediction of instruction memory addresses. Neural network have the potential to tackle the nonlinear behavior observed in memory accesses during program execution and their demonstrated numerous hardware implementation emphasize this choice over traditional forecasting techniques for their inclusion in embedded systems. However, embedded applications execute millions of instructions and therefore millions of addresses to be predicted. This very challenging problem of neural network based prediction of large time series is approached in this paper by evaluating various neural network architectures based on the recurrent neural network paradigm with pre-processing based on the Self Organizing Map (SOM) classification technique.

Keywords: Address, data set, memory, prediction, recurrentneural network.

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Authors: Raquel P. F. Guiné, Marlene I. C. Tenreiro, Ana C. Correia, Paulo Barracosa, Paula M. R. Correia

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The objective of this study was to evaluate the physical and chemical characteristics of Serra da Estrela cheese and compare these results with those of the sensory analysis. For the study were taken six samples of Serra da Estrela cheese produced with 6 different ecotypes of thistle in a dairy situated in Penalva do Castelo. The chemical properties evaluated were moisture content, protein, fat, ash, chloride and pH; the physical properties studied were color and texture; and finally a sensory evaluation was undertaken. The results showed moisture varying in the range 40- 48%, protein in the range 15-20%, fat between 41-45%, ash between 3.9-5.0% and chlorides varying from 1.2 to 3.0%. The pH varied from 4.8 to 5.4. The textural properties revealed that the crust hardness is relatively low (maximum 7.3 N), although greater than flesh firmness (maximum 1.7 N), and also that these cheeses are in fact soft paste type, with measurable stickiness and intense adhesiveness. The color analysis showed that the crust is relatively light (L* over 50), and with a predominant yellow coloration (b* around 20 or over) although with a slight greenish tone (a* negative). The results of the sensory analysis did not show great variability for most of the attributes measured, although some differences were found in attributes such as crust thickness, crust uniformity, and creamy flesh.

Keywords: Chemical composition, color, sensorial analysis, Serra da Estrela cheese, texture.

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Authors: B. S. Fatoyinbo, D. Stretch, O. T. Amoo, D. Allopi

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This study extends the use of the Drainage Area Regionalization (DAR) method in generating synthetic data and calibrating PyTOPKAPI stream yield for an ungauged basin at a daily time scale. The generation of runoff in determining a river yield has been subjected to various topographic and spatial meteorological variables, which integers form the Catchment Characteristics Model (CCM). Many of the conventional CCM models adapted in Africa have been challenged with a paucity of adequate, relevance and accurate data to parameterize and validate the potential. The purpose of generating synthetic flow is to test a hydrological model, which will not suffer from the impact of very low flows or very high flows, thus allowing to check whether the model is structurally sound enough or not. The employed physically-based, watershed-scale hydrologic model (PyTOPKAPI) was parameterized with GIS-pre-processing parameters and remote sensing hydro-meteorological variables. The validation with mean annual runoff ratio proposes a decent graphical understanding between observed and the simulated discharge. The Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency and coefficient of determination (R²) values of 0.704 and 0.739 proves strong model efficiency. Given the current climate variability impact, water planner can now assert a tool for flow quantification and sustainable planning purposes.

Keywords: Ungauged Basin, Catchment Characteristics Model, Synthetic data, GIS.

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Authors: Komeil Valipourian

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Urban advances and the growing need for developing infrastructures has increased the importance of deep excavations. In this study, after the introducing probability analysis as an important issue, an attempt has been made to apply it for the deep excavation project of Bangkok’s Metro as a case study. For this, the numerical probability model has been developed based on the Finite Difference Method and Monte Carlo sampling approach. The results indicate that disregarding the issue of probability in this project will result in an inappropriate design of the retaining structure. Therefore, probabilistic redesign of the support is proposed and carried out as one of the applications of probability analysis. A 50% reduction in the flexural strength of the structure increases the failure probability just by 8% in the allowable range and helps improve economic conditions, while maintaining mechanical efficiency. With regard to the lack of efficient design in most deep excavations, by considering geometrical and geotechnical variability, an attempt was made to develop an optimum practical design standard for deep excavations based on failure probability. On this basis, a practical relationship is presented for estimating the maximum allowable horizontal displacement, which can help improve design conditions without developing the probability analysis.

Keywords: Numerical probability modeling, deep excavation, allowable maximum displacement, finite difference method, FDM.

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Authors: Pradeep Kumar, Shibashish Chakraborty, Sasadhar Bera

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In the anticipation of demand fluctuations, services cannot be inventoried and hence it creates a difficult problem in marketing of services. The inability to meet customers (patients) requirements in healthcare context has more serious consequences than other service sectors. In order to meet patient requirements in the current uncertain environment, healthcare organizations are seeking ways for improved service delivery. Flexibility provides a mechanism for reducing variability in service encounters and improved performance. Flexibility is defined as the ability of the organization to cope with changing circumstances or instability caused by the environment. Patient satisfaction is an important performance outcome of healthcare organizations. However, the paucity of information exists in healthcare delivery context to examine the impact of flexibility on patient satisfaction and behavioral intention. The present study is an attempt to develop a conceptual foundation for investigating overall impact of flexibility on patient satisfaction and behavioral intention. Several dimensions of flexibility in healthcare context are examined and proposed to have a significant impact on patient satisfaction and intention. Furthermore, the study involves a critical examination of determinants of patient satisfaction and development of a comprehensive view the relationship between flexibility, patient satisfaction and behavioral intention. Finally, theoretical contributions and implications for healthcare professionals are suggested from flexibility perspective.

Keywords: Healthcare, flexibility, patient satisfaction, behavioral intention.

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Authors: S. Jarernprasert, E. Bazan-Zurita, P. C. Rizzo

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Currently, seismic probabilistic risk assessments (SPRA) for nuclear facilities use In-Structure Response Spectra (ISRS) in the calculation of fragilities for systems and components. ISRS are calculated via dynamic analyses of the host building subjected to two orthogonal components of horizontal ground motion. Each component is defined as the median motion in any horizontal direction. Structural engineers applied the components along selected X and Y Cartesian axes. The ISRS at different locations in the building are also calculated in the X and Y directions. The choice of the directions of X and Y are not specified by the ground motion model with respect to geographic coordinates, and are rather arbitrarily selected by the structural engineer. Normally, X and Y coincide with the “principal” axes of the building, in the understanding that this practice is generally conservative. For SPRA purposes, however, it is desirable to remove any conservatism in the estimates of median ISRS. This paper examines the effects of the direction of horizontal seismic motion on the ISRS on typical nuclear structure. We also evaluate the variability of ISRS calculated along different horizontal directions. Our results indicate that some central measures of the ISRS provide robust estimates that are practically independent of the selection of the directions of the horizontal Cartesian axes.

Keywords: Seismic, Directionality, In-Structure Response Spectra, Probabilistic Risk Assessment.

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Authors: S. Youthao, M. Jaroensutasinee, K. Jaroensutasinee

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This study investigated climatic factors associated with influenza cases in Southern Thailand. The main aim for use regression analysis to investigate possible causual relationship of climatic factors and variability between the border of the Andaman Sea and the Gulf of Thailand. Southern Thailand had the highest Influenza incidences among four regions (i.e. north, northeast, central and southern Thailand). In this study, there were 14 climatic factors: mean relative humidity, maximum relative humidity, minimum relative humidity, rainfall, rainy days, daily maximum rainfall, pressure, maximum wind speed, mean wind speed, sunshine duration, mean temperature, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and temperature difference (i.e. maximum – minimum temperature). Multiple stepwise regression technique was used to fit the statistical model. The results indicated that the mean wind speed and the minimum relative humidity were positively associated with the number of influenza cases on the Andaman Sea side. The maximum wind speed was positively associated with the number of influenza cases on the Gulf of Thailand side.

Keywords: Influenza, Climatic Factor, Relative Humidity, Rainfall, Pressure, Wind Speed, sunshine duration, Temperature, Andaman Sea, Gulf of Thailand, Southern Thailand.

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Authors: M. Irannezhad, E. H. N. Gashti, S. Mohammadighavam, M. Zarrini, B. Kløve

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Climate warming would increase rainfall by shifting precipitation falling form from snow to rain, and would accelerate snow cover disappearing by increasing snowpack. Using temperature and precipitation data in the temperature-index snowmelt model, we evaluated variability of snowfall and continuous snow cover duration (CSCD) during 1944-2010 over Pelso, central Finland. Mann- Kendall non-parametric test determined that annual precipitation increased by 2.69 (mm/year, p<0.05) during the study period, but no clear trend in annual temperature. Both annual rainfall and snowfall increased by 1.67 and 0.78 (mm/year, p<0.05), respectively. CSCD was generally about 205 days from 14 October to 6 May. No clear trend was found in CSCD over Pelso. Spearman’s rank correlation showed most significant relationships of annual snowfall with the East Atlantic (EA) pattern, and CSCD with the East Atlantic/West Russia (EA/WR) pattern. Increased precipitation with no warming temperature caused the rainfall and snowfall to increase, while no effects on CSCD.

Keywords: Variations, snowfall, snow cover duration, temperature-index snowmelt model, teleconnection patterns.

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Authors: P. Kowalska, P. Gabka, K. Kamieniarz, M. Kamieniarz, W. Stryla, P. Guzik, T. Krauze

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We have developed a computer program consisting of 6 subtests assessing the children hand dexterity applicable in the rehabilitation medicine. We have carried out a normative study on a representative sample of 285 children aged from 7 to 15 (mean age 11.3) and we have proposed clinical standards for three age groups (7-9, 9-11, 12-15 years). We have shown statistical significance of differences among the corresponding mean values of the task time completion. We have also found a strong correlation between the task time completion and the age of the subjects, as well as we have performed the test-retest reliability checks in the sample of 84 children, giving the high values of the Pearson coefficients for the dominant and non-dominant hand in the range 0.740.97 and 0.620.93, respectively. A new MATLAB-based programming tool aiming at analysis of cardiologic RR intervals and blood pressure descriptors, is worked out, too. For each set of data, ten different parameters are extracted: 2 in time domain, 4 in frequency domain and 4 in Poincaré plot analysis. In addition twelve different parameters of baroreflex sensitivity are calculated. All these data sets can be visualized in time domain together with their power spectra and Poincaré plots. If available, the respiratory oscillation curves can be also plotted for comparison. Another application processes biological data obtained from BLAST analysis.

Keywords: Biomedical data base processing, Computer software, Hand dexterity, Heart rate and blood pressure variability.

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Authors: Dalia. G. Aseel

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Begomoviruses are economically important plant viruses that infect dicotyledonous plants and exclusively transmitted by the whitefly Bemisia tabaci. Here, replicative form was isolated from Okra, Cotton, Tomato plants and whitefly infected with Begomoviruses. Using coat protein specific primers (AV1), the viral infection was verified with amplicon at 450 bp. The sequence of OLCuV-AV1 gene was recorded and received an accession number (FJ441605) from Genebank. The phylogenetic tree of OLCuV was closely related to Okra leaf curl virus previously isolated from Cameroon and USA with nucleotide sequence identity of 92%. The protein purification was carried out using His-Tag methodology by using Affinity Chromatography. The purified protein was separated on SDS-PAGE analysis and an enriched expected size of band at 30 kDa was observed. Furthermore, RAPD and SDS-PAGE were used to detect genetic variability between different hosts of okra leaf curl virus (OLCuV), cotton leaf curl virus (CLCuV), tomato yellow leaf curl virus (TYLCuV) and the whitefly vector. Finally, the present study would help to understand the relationship between the whitefly and different economical crops in Egypt.

Keywords: Begomovirus, AV1 gene, sequence, cloning, whitefly, okra, cotton, tomato, RAPD, phylogenetic tree and SDS-PAGE.

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Authors: R. Bremananth, A. Chitra

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Cryptography provides the secure manner of information transmission over the insecure channel. It authenticates messages based on the key but not on the user. It requires a lengthy key to encrypt and decrypt the sending and receiving the messages, respectively. But these keys can be guessed or cracked. Moreover, Maintaining and sharing lengthy, random keys in enciphering and deciphering process is the critical problem in the cryptography system. A new approach is described for generating a crypto key, which is acquired from a person-s iris pattern. In the biometric field, template created by the biometric algorithm can only be authenticated with the same person. Among the biometric templates, iris features can efficiently be distinguished with individuals and produces less false positives in the larger population. This type of iris code distribution provides merely less intra-class variability that aids the cryptosystem to confidently decrypt messages with an exact matching of iris pattern. In this proposed approach, the iris features are extracted using multi resolution wavelets. It produces 135-bit iris codes from each subject and is used for encrypting/decrypting the messages. The autocorrelators are used to recall original messages from the partially corrupted data produced by the decryption process. It intends to resolve the repudiation and key management problems. Results were analyzed in both conventional iris cryptography system (CIC) and non-repudiation iris cryptography system (NRIC). It shows that this new approach provides considerably high authentication in enciphering and deciphering processes.

Keywords: Autocorrelators, biometrics cryptography, irispatterns, wavelets.

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Authors: Bunakiye R. Japheth, Ogude U. Cyril

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Since the process of transforming user requirements to modeling constructs are not very well supported by domain-specific frameworks, it became necessary to integrate domain requirements with the specific architectures to achieve an integrated customizable solutions space via artifact orientation. Domain-specific modeling language specifications of model-driven engineering technologies focus more on requirements within a particular domain, which can be tailored to aid the domain expert in expressing domain concepts effectively. Modeling processes through domain-specific language formalisms are highly volatile due to dependencies on domain concepts or used process models. A capable solution is given by artifact orientation that stresses on the results rather than expressing a strict dependence on complicated platforms for model creation and development. Based on this premise, domain-specific methods for producing artifacts without having to take into account the complexity and variability of platforms for model definitions can be integrated to support customizable development. In this paper, we discuss methods for the integration capabilities and necessities within a common structure and semantics that contribute a metamodel for artifact-orientation, which leads to a reusable software layer with concrete syntax capable of determining design intents from domain expert. These concepts forming the language formalism are established from models explained within the oil and gas pipelines industry.

Keywords: Control process, metrics of engineering, structured abstraction, semantic model.

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Authors: Hamed Sadeghi, Pouya A. Panahi, Hamed Nasiri, Mohammad Sadeghi

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Collapsible soils like loess comprise an important category of problematic soils for construction purposes and sustainable development. As a result, research on both geological and geotechnical aspects of this type of soil have been in progress for decades. However, considerable natural variability in physical properties of in-situ loess strata even in a single block sample challenges the fundamental laboratory investigations. The reason behind this is that it is somehow impossible to remove the effect of a specific factor like void ratio from fair comparisons to come with a reliable conclusion. In order to cope with this limitation, two types of artificially made dispersive and calcareous loess are introduced which can be easily reproduced in any soil mechanics laboratory provided that all its compositions are known and controlled. The collapse potential is explored for a variety of soil water salinity and lime content and comparisons are made against the natural soil behavior. Trends are reported for the influence of pore water salinity on collapse potential under different osmotic flow conditions. The most important advantage of artificial loess is the ease of controlling cementing agent content like calcite or dispersive potential for studying their influence on mechanical soil behavior.

Keywords: Artificial loess, unsaturated soils, collapse potential, dispersive clays, laboratory tests.

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Authors: Mohsen A. Bakouri, Andrey V. Savkin, Abdul-Hakeem H. Alomari, Robert F. Salamonsen, Einly Lim, Nigel H. Lovell

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Physiological control of a left ventricle assist device (LVAD) is generally a complicated task due to diverse operating environments and patient variability. In this work, a tracking control algorithm based on sliding mode and feed forward control for a class of discrete-time single input single output (SISO) nonlinear uncertain systems is presented. The controller was developed to track the reference trajectory to a set operating point without inducing suction in the ventricle. The controller regulates the estimated mean pulsatile flow Qp and mean pulsatility index of pump rotational speed PIω that was generated from a model of the assist device. We recall the principle of the sliding mode control theory then we combine the feed-forward control design with the sliding mode control technique to follow the reference trajectory. The uncertainty is replaced by its upper and lower boundary. The controller was tested in a computer simulation covering two scenarios (preload and ventricular contractility). The simulation results prove the effectiveness and the robustness of the proposed controller

Keywords: robust control system, discrete-sliding mode, left ventricularle assist devicse, pulsatility index.

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Authors: Ilaria Lucrezia Amerise

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The statistical modelling of precipitation data for a given portion of territory is fundamental for the monitoring of climatic conditions and for Hydrogeological Management Plans (HMP). This modelling is rendered particularly complex by the changes taking place in the frequency and intensity of precipitation, presumably to be attributed to the global climate change. This paper applies the Wakeby distribution (with 5 parameters) as a theoretical reference model. The number and the quality of the parameters indicate that this distribution may be the appropriate choice for the interpolations of the hydrological variables and, moreover, the Wakeby is particularly suitable for describing phenomena producing heavy tails. The proposed estimation methods for determining the value of the Wakeby parameters are the same as those used for density functions with heavy tails. The commonly used procedure is the classic method of moments weighed with probabilities (probability weighted moments, PWM) although this has often shown difficulty of convergence, or rather, convergence to a configuration of inappropriate parameters. In this paper, we analyze the problem of the likelihood estimation of a random variable expressed through its quantile function. The method of maximum likelihood, in this case, is more demanding than in the situations of more usual estimation. The reasons for this lie, in the sampling and asymptotic properties of the estimators of maximum likelihood which improve the estimates obtained with indications of their variability and, therefore, their accuracy and reliability. These features are highly appreciated in contexts where poor decisions, attributable to an inefficient or incomplete information base, can cause serious damages.

Keywords: Generalized extreme values (GEV), likelihood estimation, precipitation data, Wakeby distribution.

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Authors: Isabela Moreira Queiroz

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Slope stability analyses are largely carried out by deterministic methods and evaluated through a single security factor. Although it is known that the geotechnical parameters can present great dispersal, such analyses are considered fixed and known. The probabilistic methods, in turn, incorporate the variability of input key parameters (random variables), resulting in a range of values of safety factors, thus enabling the determination of the probability of failure, which is an essential parameter in the calculation of the risk (probability multiplied by the consequence of the event). Among the probabilistic methods, there are three frequently used methods in geotechnical society: FOSM (First-Order, Second-Moment), Rosenblueth (Point Estimates) and Monte Carlo. This paper presents a comparison between the results from deterministic and probabilistic analyses (FOSM method, Monte Carlo and Rosenblueth) applied to a hypothetical slope. The end was held to evaluate the behavior of the slope and consequent risk analysis, which is used to calculate the risk and analyze their mitigation and control solutions. It can be observed that the results obtained by the three probabilistic methods were quite close. It should be noticed that the calculation of the risk makes it possible to list the priority to the implementation of mitigation measures. Therefore, it is recommended to do a good assessment of the geological-geotechnical model incorporating the uncertainty in viability, design, construction, operation and closure by means of risk management. 

Keywords: Probabilistic methods, risk assessment, risk management, slope stability.

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Authors: Shohei Maruyama, Yasuo Matsuyama, Sachiyo Aburatani

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Development of a method to estimate gene functions is an important task in bioinformatics. One of the approaches for the annotation is the identification of the metabolic pathway that genes are involved in. Since gene expression data reflect various intracellular phenomena, those data are considered to be related with genes’ functions. However, it has been difficult to estimate the gene function with high accuracy. It is considered that the low accuracy of the estimation is caused by the difficulty of accurately measuring a gene expression. Even though they are measured under the same condition, the gene expressions will vary usually. In this study, we proposed a feature extraction method focusing on the variability of gene expressions to estimate the genes' metabolic pathway accurately. First, we estimated the distribution of each gene expression from replicate data. Next, we calculated the similarity between all gene pairs by KL divergence, which is a method for calculating the similarity between distributions. Finally, we utilized the similarity vectors as feature vectors and trained the multiclass SVM for identifying the genes' metabolic pathway. To evaluate our developed method, we applied the method to budding yeast and trained the multiclass SVM for identifying the seven metabolic pathways. As a result, the accuracy that calculated by our developed method was higher than the one that calculated from the raw gene expression data. Thus, our developed method combined with KL divergence is useful for identifying the genes' metabolic pathway.

Keywords: Metabolic pathways, gene expression data, microarray, Kullback–Leibler divergence, KL divergence, support vector machines, SVM, machine learning.

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Authors: Vahid Reza Nafisi, Mohammad Hasan Moradi, Mohammad Hosain Nasr-Esfahani

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The conventional assessment of human semen is a highly subjective assessment, with considerable intra- and interlaboratory variability. Computer-Assisted Sperm Analysis (CASA) systems provide a rapid and automated assessment of the sperm characteristics, together with improved standardization and quality control. However, the outcome of CASA systems is sensitive to the method of experimentation. While conventional CASA systems use digital microscopes with phase-contrast accessories, producing higher contrast images, we have used raw semen samples (no staining materials) and a regular light microscope, with a digital camera directly attached to its eyepiece, to insure cost benefits and simple assembling of the system. However, since the accurate finding of sperms in the semen image is the first step in the examination and analysis of the semen, any error in this step can affect the outcome of the analysis. This article introduces and explains an algorithm for finding sperms in low contrast images: First, an image enhancement algorithm is applied to remove extra particles from the image. Then, the foreground particles (including sperms and round cells) are segmented form the background. Finally, based on certain features and criteria, sperms are separated from other cells.

Keywords: Computer-Assisted Sperm Analysis (CASA), Sperm identification, Tail detection, Elliptic shape model.

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Authors: Ali Jahanfar, Brajesh Dubey, Bahram Gharabaghi, Saber Bayat Movahed

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Ever increasing population growth of major urban centers and environmental challenges in siting new landfills have resulted in a growing trend in design of mega-landfills some with extraordinary heights and dangerously steep slopes. Landfill failure mobility risk analysis is one of the most uncertain types of dynamic rheology models due to very large inherent variabilities in the heterogeneous solid waste material shear strength properties. The waste flow of three historic dumpsite and two landfill failures were back-analyzed using run-out modeling with DAN-W model. The travel distances of the waste flow during landfill failures were calculated approach by taking into account variability in material shear strength properties. The probability distribution function for shear strength properties of the waste material were grouped into four major classed based on waste material compaction (landfills versus dumpsites) and composition (high versus low quantity) of high shear strength waste materials such as wood, metal, plastic, paper and cardboard in the waste. This paper presents a probabilistic method for estimation of the spatial extent of waste avalanches, after a potential landfill failure, to create maps of vulnerability scores to inform property owners and residents of the level of the risk.

Keywords: Landfill failure, waste flow, Voellmy rheology, friction coefficient, waste compaction and type.

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Authors: Md. Khademul Islam Molla, Akimasa Sumi, M. Sayedur Rahman

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The empirical mode decomposition (EMD) represents any time series into a finite set of basis functions. The bases are termed as intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) which are mutually orthogonal containing minimum amount of cross-information. The EMD successively extracts the IMFs with the highest local frequencies in a recursive way, which yields effectively a set low-pass filters based entirely on the properties exhibited by the data. In this paper, EMD is applied to explore the properties of the multi-year air temperature and to observe its effects on climate change under global warming. This method decomposes the original time-series into intrinsic time scale. It is capable of analyzing nonlinear, non-stationary climatic time series that cause problems to many linear statistical methods and their users. The analysis results show that the mode of EMD presents seasonal variability. The most of the IMFs have normal distribution and the energy density distribution of the IMFs satisfies Chi-square distribution. The IMFs are more effective in isolating physical processes of various time-scales and also statistically significant. The analysis results also show that the EMD method provides a good job to find many characteristics on inter annual climate. The results suggest that climate fluctuations of every single element such as temperature are the results of variations in the global atmospheric circulation.

Keywords: Empirical mode decomposition, instantaneous frequency, Hilbert spectrum, Chi-square distribution, anthropogenic impact.

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Authors: Elison Eduardo Jardim Bierhals, Claudineia Brazil, Francisco Pereira, Elton Rossini

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The use of alternative energy sources to meet energy demand reduces environmental damage. To diversify an energy matrix and to minimize global warming, a solar energy is gaining space, being an important source of renewable energy, and its potential depends on the climatic conditions of the region. Brazil presents a great solar potential for a generation of electric energy, so the knowledge of solar radiation and its characteristics are fundamental for the study of energy use. Due to the above reasons, this article aims to verify the climatic variability corresponding to the variations in solar radiation anomalies, in the face of climate change scenarios. The data used in this research are part of the Intercomparison of Interconnected Models, Phase 5 (CMIP5), which contributed to the preparation of the fifth IPCC-AR5 report. The solar radiation data were extracted from The Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator (ACCESS) model using the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios that represent an intermediate structure and a pessimistic framework, the latter being the most worrisome in all cases. In order to allow the use of solar radiation as a source of energy in a given location and/or region, it is important, first, to determine its availability, thus justifying the importance of the study. The results pointed out, for the 75-year period (2026-2100), based on a pessimistic scenario, indicate a drop in solar radiation of the approximately 12% in the eastern region of Rio Grande do Sul. Factors that influence the pessimistic prospects of this scenario should be better observed by the responsible authorities, since they can affect the possibility to produce electricity from solar radiation.

Keywords: Climate change, solar radiation, energy utilization.

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Authors: Srinivasan Chandrasekaran, Thailammai Chithambaram, Shihas A. Khader

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The early-stage damage detection in offshore structures requires continuous structural health monitoring and for the large area the position of sensors will also plays an important role in the efficient damage detection. Determining the dynamic behavior of offshore structures requires dense deployment of sensors. The wired Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) systems are highly expensive and always needs larger installation space to deploy. Wireless sensor networks can enhance the SHM system by deployment of scalable sensor network, which consumes lesser space. This paper presents the results of wireless sensor network based Structural Health Monitoring method applied to a scaled experimental model of offshore structure that underwent wave loading. This method determines the serviceability of the offshore structure which is subjected to various environment loads. Wired and wireless sensors were installed in the model and the response of the scaled BLSRP model under wave loading was recorded. The wireless system discussed in this study is the Raspberry pi board with Arm V6 processor which is programmed to transmit the data acquired by the sensor to the server using Wi-Fi adapter, the data is then hosted in the webpage. The data acquired from the wireless and wired SHM systems were compared and the design of the wireless system is verified.

Keywords: Condition assessment, damage detection, structural health monitoring, structural response, wireless sensor network.

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Authors: Richard Molyneux, Christopher Parrott, Kirill Horoshenkov

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This paper aims to demonstrate how various algorithms can be implemented within swarms of autonomous robots to provide continuous inspection within underground pipeline networks. Current methods of fault detection within pipes are costly, time consuming and inefficient. As such, solutions tend toward a more reactive approach, repairing faults, as opposed to proactively seeking leaks and blockages. The paper presents an efficient inspection method, showing that autonomous swarm robotics is a viable way of monitoring underground infrastructure. Tailored adaptations of various Vehicle Routing Problems (VRP) and path-planning algorithms provide a customised inspection procedure for complicated networks of underground pipes. The performance of multiple algorithms is compared to determine their effectiveness and feasibility. Notable inspirations come from ant colonies and stigmergy, graph theory, the k-Chinese Postman Problem ( -CPP) and traffic theory. Unlike most swarm behaviours which rely on fast communication between agents, underground pipe networks are a highly challenging communication environment with extremely limited communication ranges. This is due to the extreme variability in the pipe conditions and relatively high attenuation of acoustic and radio waves with which robots would usually communicate. This paper illustrates how to optimise the inspection process and how to increase the frequency with which the robots pass each other, without compromising the routes they are able to take to cover the whole network.

Keywords: Autonomous inspection, buried pipes, stigmergy, swarm intelligence, vehicle routing problem.

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Authors: Nishi Bhuvandas, P. V. Timbadiya, P. L. Patel, P. D. Porey

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Recent perceived climate variability raises concerns with unprecedented hydrological phenomena and extremes. Distribution and circulation of the waters of the Earth become increasingly difficult to determine because of additional uncertainty related to anthropogenic emissions. The world wide observed changes in the large-scale hydrological cycle have been related to an increase in the observed temperature over several decades. Although the effect of change in climate on hydrology provides a general picture of possible hydrological global change, new tools and frameworks for modelling hydrological series with nonstationary characteristics at finer scales, are required for assessing climate change impacts. Of the downscaling techniques, dynamic downscaling is usually based on the use of Regional Climate Models (RCMs), which generate finer resolution output based on atmospheric physics over a region using General Circulation Model (GCM) fields as boundary conditions. However, RCMs are not expected to capture the observed spatial precipitation extremes at a fine cell scale or at a basin scale. Statistical downscaling derives a statistical or empirical relationship between the variables simulated by the GCMs, called predictors, and station-scale hydrologic variables, called predictands. The main focus of the paper is on the need for using statistical downscaling techniques for projection of local hydrometeorological variables under climate change scenarios. The projections can be then served as a means of input source to various hydrologic models to obtain streamflow, evapotranspiration, soil moisture and other hydrological variables of interest.

Keywords: Climate Change, Downscaling, GCM, RCM.

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Authors: Manoochehr Gholipoor

Abstract:

The response of growth and yield of rainfed-chickpea to population density should be evaluated based on long-term experiments to include the climate variability. This is achievable just by simulation. In this simulation study, this evaluation was done by running the CYRUS model for long-term daily weather data of five locations in Iran. The tested population densities were 7 to 59 (with interval of 2) stands per square meter. Various functions, including quadratic, segmented, beta, broken linear, and dent-like functions, were tested. Considering root mean square of deviations and linear regression statistics [intercept (a), slope (b), and correlation coefficient (r)] for predicted versus observed variables, the quadratic and broken linear functions appeared to be appropriate for describing the changes in biomass and grain yield, and in harvest index, respectively. Results indicated that in all locations, grain yield tends to show increasing trend with crowding the population, but subsequently decreases. This was also true for biomass in five locations. The harvest index appeared to have plateau state across low population densities, but decreasing trend with more increasing density. The turning point (optimum population density) for grain yield was 30.68 stands per square meter in Isfahan, 30.54 in Shiraz, 31.47 in Kermanshah, 34.85 in Tabriz, and 32.00 in Mashhad. The optimum population density for biomass ranged from 24.6 (in Tabriz) to 35.3 stands per square meter (Mashhad). For harvest index it varied between 35.87 and 40.12 stands per square meter.

Keywords: Rainfed-chickpea, biomass, harvest index, grain yield, simulation.

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Authors: M. Yilmaz, I. Yilmaz, M. Uysal

Abstract:

The Earth system generates different phenomena that are observable at the surface of the Earth such as mass deformations and displacements leading to plate tectonics, earthquakes, and volcanism. The dynamic processes associated with the interior, surface, and atmosphere of the Earth affect the three pillars of geodesy: shape of the Earth, its gravity field, and its rotation. Geodesy establishes a characteristic structure in order to define, monitor, and predict of the whole Earth system. The traditional and new instruments, observables, and techniques in geodesy are related to the gravity field. Therefore, the geodesy monitors the gravity field and its temporal variability in order to transform the geodetic observations made on the physical surface of the Earth into the geometrical surface in which positions are mathematically defined. In this paper, the main components of the gravity field modeling, (Free-air and Bouguer) gravity anomalies are calculated via recent global models (EGM2008, EIGEN6C4, and GECO) over a selected study area. The model-based gravity anomalies are compared with the corresponding terrestrial gravity data in terms of standard deviation (SD) and root mean square error (RMSE) for determining the best fit global model in the study area at a regional scale in Turkey. The least SD (13.63 mGal) and RMSE (15.71 mGal) were obtained by EGM2008 for the Free-air gravity anomaly residuals. For the Bouguer gravity anomaly residuals, EIGEN6C4 provides the least SD (8.05 mGal) and RMSE (8.12 mGal). The results indicated that EIGEN6C4 can be a useful tool for modeling the gravity field of the Earth over the study area.

Keywords: Free-air gravity anomaly, Bouguer gravity anomaly, global model, land gravity.

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Authors: Zhan Fengmei Yao, Hui Li, Jiahua Zhang g

Abstract:

The Northeast China (NEC) was the most important agriculture areas and known as the Golden-Maize-Belt. Based on observed crop data and crop model, we design four simulating experiments and separate relative impacts and contribution under climate change, planting date shift, and varieties change as well change of varieties and planting date. Without planting date and varieties change, maize yields had no significant change trend at Hailun station located in the north of NEC, and presented significant decrease by 0.2 - 0.4 t/10a at two stations, which located in the middle and the south of NEC. With planting date change, yields showed a significant increase by 0.09 - 0.47 t/10a. With varieties change, maize yields had significant increase by 1.8~ 1.9 t/10a at Hailun and Huadian stations, but a non-significant and low increase by 0.2t /10a at Benxi located in the south of NEC. With change of varieties and planting date, yields presented a significant increasing by 0.53- 2.0 t/10a. Their contribution to yields was -25% ~ -55% for climate change, 15% ~ 35% for planting date change, and 20% ~110% for varieties change as well 30% ~135% for varieties with planting date shift. It found that change in varieties and planting date were highest yields and were responsible for significant increases in maize yields, varieties was secondly, and planting date was thirdly. It found that adaptation in varieties and planting date greatly improved maize yields, and increased yields annual variability. The increase of contribution with planting date and varieties change in 2000s was lower than in 1990s. Yields with the varieties change and yields with planting date and varieties change all showed a decreasing trend at Huadian and Benxi since 2002 or so. It indicated that maize yields increasing trend stagnated in the middle and south of NEC, and continued in the north of NEC.

Keywords: Climate change, maize yields, varieties, planting date, impacts.

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Authors: Akrem Sellami, Imed Riadh Farah

Abstract:

Hyperspectral imagery (HSI) typically provides a wealth of information captured in a wide range of the electromagnetic spectrum for each pixel in the image. Hence, a pixel in HSI is a high-dimensional vector of intensities with a large spectral range and a high spectral resolution. Therefore, the semantic interpretation is a challenging task of HSI analysis. We focused in this paper on object classification as HSI semantic interpretation. However, HSI classification still faces some issues, among which are the following: The spatial variability of spectral signatures, the high number of spectral bands, and the high cost of true sample labeling. Therefore, the high number of spectral bands and the low number of training samples pose the problem of the curse of dimensionality. In order to resolve this problem, we propose to introduce the process of dimensionality reduction trying to improve the classification of HSI. The presented approach is a semi-supervised band selection method based on spatial hypergraph embedding model to represent higher order relationships with different weights of the spatial neighbors corresponding to the centroid of pixel. This semi-supervised band selection has been developed to select useful bands for object classification. The presented approach is evaluated on AVIRIS and ROSIS HSIs and compared to other dimensionality reduction methods. The experimental results demonstrate the efficacy of our approach compared to many existing dimensionality reduction methods for HSI classification.

Keywords: Hyperspectral image, spatial hypergraph, dimensionality reduction, semantic interpretation, band selection, feature extraction.

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Authors: Claudineia Brazil, Elison Eduardo Jardim Bierhals, Luciane Teresa Salvi, Rafael Haag

Abstract:

Renewable energy sources are dependent on climatic variability, so for adequate energy planning, observations of the meteorological variables are required, preferably representing long-period series. Despite the scientific and technological advances that meteorological measurement systems have undergone in the last decades, there is still a considerable lack of meteorological observations that form series of long periods. The reanalysis is a system of assimilation of data prepared using general atmospheric circulation models, based on the combination of data collected at surface stations, ocean buoys, satellites and radiosondes, allowing the production of long period data, for a wide gamma. The third generation of reanalysis data emerged in 2010, among them is the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) developed by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), these data have a spatial resolution of 0.50 x 0.50. In order to overcome these difficulties, it aims to evaluate the performance of solar radiation estimation through alternative data bases, such as data from Reanalysis and from meteorological satellites that satisfactorily meet the absence of observations of solar radiation at global and/or regional level. The results of the analysis of the solar radiation data indicated that the reanalysis data of the CFSR model presented a good performance in relation to the observed data, with determination coefficient around 0.90. Therefore, it is concluded that these data have the potential to be used as an alternative source in locations with no seasons or long series of solar radiation, important for the evaluation of solar energy potential.

Keywords: Climate, reanalysis, renewable energy, solar radiation.

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Authors: M. Rüstü Karaman, Tekin Susam, Fatih Er, Servet Yaprak, Osman Karkacıer

Abstract:

Computer based geostatistical methods can offer effective data analysis possibilities for agricultural areas by using vectorial data and their objective informations. These methods will help to detect the spatial changes on different locations of the large agricultural lands, which will lead to effective fertilization for optimal yield with reduced environmental pollution. In this study, topsoil (0-20 cm) and subsoil (20-40 cm) samples were taken from a sugar beet field by 20 x 20 m grids. Plant samples were also collected from the same plots. Some physical and chemical analyses for these samples were made by routine methods. According to derived variation coefficients, topsoil organic matter (OM) distribution was more than subsoil OM distribution. The highest C.V. value of 17.79% was found for topsoil OM. The data were analyzed comparatively according to kriging methods which are also used widely in geostatistic. Several interpolation methods (Ordinary,Simple and Universal) and semivariogram models (Spherical, Exponential and Gaussian) were tested in order to choose the suitable methods. Average standard deviations of values estimated by simple kriging interpolation method were less than average standard deviations (topsoil OM ± 0.48, N ± 0.37, subsoil OM ± 0.18) of measured values. The most suitable interpolation method was simple kriging method and exponantial semivariogram model for topsoil, whereas the best optimal interpolation method was simple kriging method and spherical semivariogram model for subsoil. The results also showed that these computer based geostatistical methods should be tested and calibrated for different experimental conditions and semivariogram models.

Keywords: Geostatistic, kriging, organic matter, sugarbeet.

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