Search results for: fuzzy time series

Authors: Celso A. G. Santos, Paula K. M. M. Freire

Abstract:

The urban centers within northeastern Brazil are mainly influenced by the intense rainfalls, which can occur after long periods of drought, when flood events can be observed during such events. Thus, this paper aims to study the rainfall frequencies in such region through the wavelet transform. An application of wavelet analysis is done with long time series of the total monthly rainfall amount at the capital cities of northeastern Brazil. The main frequency components in the time series are studied by the global wavelet spectrum and the modulation in separated periodicity bands were done in order to extract additional information, e.g., the 8 and 16 months band was examined by an average of all scales, giving a measure of the average annual variance versus time, where the periods with low or high variance could be identified. The important increases were identified in the average variance for some periods, e.g. 1947 to 1952 at Teresina city, which can be considered as high wet periods. Although, the precipitation in those sites showed similar global wavelet spectra, the wavelet spectra revealed particular features. This study can be considered an important tool for time series analysis, which can help the studies concerning flood control, mainly when they are applied together with rainfall-runoff simulations.

Keywords: rainfall data, urban center, wavelet transform.

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Authors: Dongsu Wu, Hongbin Gu, Peng Li

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A novel adaptive fuzzy trajectory tracking algorithm of Stewart platform based motion platform is proposed to compensate path deviation and degradation of controller-s performance due to actuator torque limit. The algorithm can be divided into two parts: the real-time trajectory shaping part and the joint space adaptive fuzzy controller part. For a reference trajectory in task space whenever any of the actuators is saturated, the desired acceleration of the reference trajectory is modified on-line by using dynamic model of motion platform. Meanwhile an additional action with respect to the difference between the nominal and modified trajectories is utilized in the non-saturated region of actuators to reduce the path error. Using modified trajectory as input, the joint space controller incorporates compute torque controller, leg velocity observer and fuzzy disturbance observer with saturation compensation. It can ensure stability and tracking performance of controller in present of external disturbance and position only measurement. Simulation results verify the effectiveness of proposed control scheme.

Keywords: Actuator saturation, adaptive fuzzy control, Stewartplatform, trajectory shaping, flight simulator

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Authors: Zeynep Sener, Mehtap Dursun

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Supplier evaluation and selection is one of the most important components of an effective supply chain management system. Due to the expanding competition in healthcare, selecting the right medical device suppliers offers great potential for increasing quality while decreasing costs. This paper proposes a fuzzy decision making approach for medical supplier selection. A real-world medical device supplier selection problem is presented to illustrate the application of the proposed decision methodology.

Keywords: Fuzzy decision making, fuzzy multiple objective programming, medical supply chain, supplier selection.

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Authors: Debabrata Das, Pankaj Dutta

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Along with forward supply chain organization needs to consider the impact of reverse logistics due to its economic advantage, social awareness and strict legislations. In this paper, we develop a system dynamics framework for a closed-loop supply chain with fuzzy demand and fuzzy collection rate by incorporating product exchange policy in forward channel and various recovery options in reverse channel. The uncertainty issues associated with acquisition and collection of used product have been quantified using possibility measures. In the simulation study, we analyze order variation at both retailer and distributor level and compare bullwhip effects of different logistics participants over time between the traditional forward supply chain and the closed-loop supply chain. Our results suggest that the integration of reverse logistics can reduce order variation and bullwhip effect of a closed-loop system. Finally, sensitivity analysis is performed to examine the impact of various parameters on recovery process and bullwhip effect.

Keywords: Bullwhip Effect, Fuzzy Possibility Measures, Reverse Supply Chain, System Dynamics.

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Authors: Madhukar Nagare, Pankaj Dutta

Abstract:

Inventory decisional environment of short life-cycle products is full of uncertainties arising from randomness and fuzziness of input parameters like customer demand requiring modeling under hybrid uncertainty. Prior inventory models incorporating fuzzy demand have unfortunately ignored stochastic variation of demand. This paper determines an unambiguous optimal order quantity from a set of n fuzzy observations in a newsvendor inventory setting in presence of fuzzy random variable demand capturing both fuzzy perception and randomness of customer demand. The stress of this paper is in providing solution procedure that attains optimality in two steps with demand information availability in linguistic phrases leading to fuzziness along with stochastic variation. The first step of solution procedure identifies and prefers one best fuzzy opinion out of all expert opinions and the second step determines optimal order quantity from the selected event that maximizes profit. The model and solution procedure is illustrated with a numerical example.

Keywords: Fuzzy expected value, Fuzzy random demand, Hybrid uncertainty, Optimal order quantity, Single-period inventory

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Authors: N.Subramanian, C.Murugesan

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This paper is devoted to the study of the general properties of Orlicz space of entire sequence of fuzzy numbers by using infinite matrices.

Keywords: Fuzzy numbers, infinite matrix, Orlicz space, entiresequence.

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Authors: Shiuh-Jer Huang, Ming-Tien Su

Abstract:

Since the driving speed and control accuracy of commercial optical disk are increasing significantly, it needs an efficient controller to monitor the track seeking and following operations of the servo system for achieving the desired data extracting response. The nonlinear behaviors of the actuator and servo system of the optical disk drive will influence the laser spot positioning. Here, the model-free fuzzy control scheme is employed to design the track seeking servo controller for a d.c. motor driving optical disk drive system. In addition, the sliding model control strategy is introduced into the fuzzy control structure to construct a 1-D adaptive fuzzy rule intelligent controller for simplifying the implementation problem and improving the control performance. The experimental results show that the steady state error of the track seeking by using this fuzzy controller can maintain within the track width (1.6 μm ). It can be used in the track seeking and track following servo control operations.

Keywords: Fuzzy control, gain tuning and optical disk drive.

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Authors: Mohanad Alata , Moh'd Al-Nimr, Rami Al-Jarrah

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The present work demonstrates the design and simulation of a fuzzy control of an air conditioning system at different pressures. The first order Sugeno fuzzy inference system is utilized to model the system and create the controller. In addition, an estimation of the heat transfer rate and water mass flow rate injection into or withdraw from the air conditioning system is determined by the fuzzy IF-THEN rules. The approach starts by generating the input/output data. Then, the subtractive clustering algorithm along with least square estimation (LSE) generates the fuzzy rules that describe the relationship between input/output data. The fuzzy rules are tuned by Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS). The results show that when the pressure increases the amount of water flow rate and heat transfer rate decrease within the lower ranges of inlet dry bulb temperatures. On the other hand, and as pressure increases the amount of water flow rate and heat transfer rate increases within the higher ranges of inlet dry bulb temperatures. The inflection in the pressure effect trend occurs at lower temperatures as the inlet air humidity increases.

Keywords: Air Conditioning, ANFIS, Fuzzy Control, Sugeno System.

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Authors: Mourad Moussa, Ali Douik, Hassani Messaoud

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Events discrimination and decision maker in sport field are the subject of many interesting studies in computer vision and artificial intelligence. A large volume of research has been conducted for automatic semantic event detection and summarization of sports videos. Indeed the results of these researches have a very significant contribution, as well to television broadcasts as to the football teams, since the result of sporting event can be reflected on the economic field. In this paper, we propose a novel fuzzy sequential technique which lead to discriminate events and specify the technico-tactics on going the game, nor the fuzzy system or the sequential one, may be able to respond to the asked question, in fact fuzzy process is not sufficient, it does not respect the chronological order according the time of various events, similarly the sequential process needs flexibility about the parameters used in this study, it may affect a membership degree of each parameter on the one hand and respect the sequencing of events for each frame on the other hand. Indeed this technique describes special events such as dribbling, headings, short sprints, rapid acceleration or deceleration, turning, jumping, kicking, ball occupation, and tackling according velocity vectors of the two players and the ball direction.

Keywords: Sequential process, Event detection, Soccer videos analysis, Fuzzy process, Spatio-temporal parameters.

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Authors: S. Massoum, A. Bentaallah, A. Massoum, F. Benaimeche, P. Wira, A. Meroufel

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This paper presents a speed fuzzy sliding mode controller for a vector controlled induction machine (IM) fed by a voltage source inverter (PWM). The sliding mode based fuzzy control method is developed to achieve fast response, a best disturbance rejection and to maintain a good decoupling. The problem with sliding mode control is that there is high frequency switching around the sliding mode surface. The FSMC is the combination of the robustness of Sliding Mode Control (SMC) and the smoothness of Fuzzy Logic (FL). To reduce the torque fluctuations (chattering), the sign function used in the conventional SMC is substituted with a fuzzy logic algorithm. The proposed algorithm was simulated by Matlab/Simulink software and simulation results show that the performance of the control scheme is robust and the chattering problem is solved.

Keywords: IM, FOC, FLC, SMC, and FSMC.

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Authors: Khalid M. Aamir, Mohammad A. Maud

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Power Spectral Density (PSD) of quasi-stationary processes can be efficiently estimated using the short time Fourier series (STFT). In this paper, an algorithm has been proposed that computes the PSD of quasi-stationary process efficiently using offline autoregressive model order estimation algorithm, recursive parameter estimation technique and modified sliding window discrete Fourier Transform algorithm. The main difference in this algorithm and STFT is that the sliding window (SW) and window for spectral estimation (WSA) are separately defined. WSA is updated and its PSD is computed only when change in statistics is detected in the SW. The computational complexity of the proposed algorithm is found to be lesser than that for standard STFT technique.

Keywords: Power Spectral Density (PSD), quasi-stationarytime series, short time Fourier Transform, Sliding window DFT.

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Authors: Mustafa Resa Becan

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Sliding mode control with a fuzzy boundary layer is presented to hydraulic position control problem in this paper. A nonlinear hydraulic servomechanism which has an asymmetric cylinder is modeled and simulated first, then the proposed control scheme is applied to this model versus the conventional sliding mode control. Simulation results proved that the chattering free position control is achieved by tuning the fuzzy scaling factors properly.

Keywords: Hydraulic servomechanism, position control, sliding mode control, chattering, fuzzy boundary layer.

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Authors: Yi Liu, Yang Xu

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Applying the idea of soft set theory to lattice implication algebras, the novel concept of (implicative) filteristic soft lattice implication algebras which related to (implicative) filter(for short, (IF-)F-soft lattice implication algebras) are introduced. Basic properties of (IF-)F-soft lattice implication algebras are derived. Two kinds of fuzzy filters (i.e.(2, 2 _qk)((2, 2 _ qk))-fuzzy (implicative) filter) of L are introduced, which are generalizations of fuzzy (implicative) filters. Some characterizations for a soft set to be a (IF-)F-soft lattice implication algebra are provided. Analogously, this idea can be used in other types of filteristic lattice implication algebras (such as fantastic (positive implicative) filteristic soft lattice implication algebras).

Keywords: Soft set, (implicative) filteristic lattice implication algebras, fuzzy (implicative) filters, ((2, 2 _qk)) (2, 2 _ qk)-fuzzy(implicative) filters.

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Authors: Mehrdad N. Khajavi, Vahid Abdollahi

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The purpose of suspension system in automobiles is to improve the ride comfort and road handling. In this research the ride and handling performance of a specific automobile with passive suspension system is compared to a proposed fuzzy logic semi active suspension system designed for that automobile. The bodysuspension- wheel system is modeled as a two degree of freedom quarter car model. MATLAB/SIMULINK [1] was used for simulation and controller design. The fuzzy logic controller is based on two inputs namely suspension velocity and body velocity. The output of the fuzzy controller is the damping coefficient of the variable damper. The result shows improvement over passive suspension method.

Keywords: Suspension System, Ride Comfort, Fuzzy Logic Controller, Passive and Semi Active System.

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Authors: Jianfeng Li, Feng Jin, Xiaoyu Yang

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This paper applies fuzzy clustering algorithm in classifying real estate companies in China according to some general financial indexes, such as income per share, share accumulation fund, net profit margins, weighted net assets yield and shareholders' equity. By constructing and normalizing initial partition matrix, getting fuzzy similar matrix with Minkowski metric and gaining the transitive closure, the dynamic fuzzy clustering analysis for real estate companies is shown clearly that different clustered result change gradually with the threshold reducing, and then, it-s shown there is the similar relationship with the prices of those companies in stock market. In this way, it-s great valuable in contrasting the real estate companies- financial condition in order to grasp some good chances of investment, and so on.

Keywords: Fuzzy clustering algorithm, data mining, real estate company, financial analysis.

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Authors: Ali Haroonabadi, Mohammad Teshnehlab

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None of the processing models in the software development has explained the software systems performance evaluation and modeling; likewise, there exist uncertainty in the information systems because of the natural essence of requirements, and this may cause other challenges in the processing of software development. By definition an extended version of UML (Fuzzy- UML), the functional requirements of the software defined uncertainly would be supported. In this study, the behavioral description of uncertain information systems by the aid of fuzzy-state diagram is crucial; moreover, the introduction of behavioral diagrams role in F-UML is investigated in software performance modeling process. To get the aim, a fuzzy sub-profile is used.

Keywords: Fuzzy System, Software Development Model, Software Performance Evaluation, UML

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Authors: Hirofumi Miyajima, Kazuya Kishida, Noritaka Shigei, Hiromi Miyajima

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Most of self-tuning fuzzy systems, which are automatically constructed from learning data, are based on the steepest descent method (SDM). However, this approach often requires a large convergence time and gets stuck into a shallow local minimum. One of its solutions is to use fuzzy rule modules with a small number of inputs such as DIRMs (Double-Input Rule Modules) and SIRMs (Single-Input Rule Modules). In this paper, we consider a (generalized) DIRMs model composed of double and single-input rule modules. Further, in order to reduce the redundant modules for the (generalized) DIRMs model, pruning and generative learning algorithms for the model are suggested. In order to show the effectiveness of them, numerical simulations for function approximation, Box-Jenkins and obstacle avoidance problems are performed.

Keywords: Box-Jenkins’s problem, Double-input rule module, Fuzzy inference model, Obstacle avoidance, Single-input rule module.

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Authors: C. Ardil

Abstract:

This paper investigates the application of the determinate fuzzy preference programming method for a more nuanced and comprehensive evaluation of stealth aircraft. Traditional methods often struggle to incorporate subjective factors and uncertainties inherent in complex systems like stealth aircraft. Determinate fuzzy preference programming addresses this limitation by leveraging the strengths of determinate fuzzy sets. The proposed novel multiple criteria decision-making algorithm integrates these concepts to consider aspects and criteria influencing aircraft performance. This approach aims to provide a more holistic assessment by enabling decision-makers to observe positive and negative outranking flows simultaneously. By demonstrating the validity and effectiveness of this approach through a practical example of selecting a stealth aircraft, this paper aims to establish the determinate fuzzy preference programming method as a valuable tool for informed decision-making in this critical domain.

Keywords: Determinate fuzzy set, stealth aircraft selection, distance function, decision making, uncertainty, preference programming. MCDM

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Authors: Ramin Vafadary, Maryam Khanbaghi

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Forecasting electricity load is important for various purposes like planning, operation and control. Forecasts can save operating and maintenance costs, increase the reliability of power supply and delivery systems, and correct decisions for future development. This paper compares various time series methods to forecast 24 hours ahead of electricity load. The methods considered are the Holt-Winters smoothing, SARIMA Modeling, LSTM Network, Fbprophet and Tensorflow probability. The performance of each method is evaluated by using the forecasting accuracy criteria namely, the Mean Absolute Error and Root Mean Square Error. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) residential energy consumption data are used to train the models. The results of this study show that SARIMA model is superior to the others for 24 hours ahead forecasts. Furthermore, a Bagging technique is used to make the predictions more robust. The obtained results show that by Bagging multiple time-series forecasts we can improve the robustness of the models for 24 hour ahead electricity load forecasting.

Keywords: Bagging, Fbprophet, Holt-Winters, LSTM, Load Forecast, SARIMA, tensorflow probability, time series.

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Authors: Vassilis S. Kodogiannis, John N. Lygouras

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In this research study, an intelligent detection system to support medical diagnosis and detection of abnormal lesions by processing endoscopic images is presented. The images used in this study have been obtained using the M2A Swallowable Imaging Capsule - a patented, video color-imaging disposable capsule. Schemes have been developed to extract texture features from the fuzzy texture spectra in the chromatic and achromatic domains for a selected region of interest from each color component histogram of endoscopic images. The implementation of an advanced fuzzy inference neural network which combines fuzzy systems and artificial neural networks and the concept of fusion of multiple classifiers dedicated to specific feature parameters have been also adopted in this paper. The achieved high detection accuracy of the proposed system has provided thus an indication that such intelligent schemes could be used as a supplementary diagnostic tool in endoscopy.

Keywords: Medical imaging, Computer aided diagnosis, Endoscopy, Neuro-fuzzy networks, Fuzzy integral.

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Authors: C. Ardil

Abstract:

This article presents a new approach to uncertainty, vagueness, and imprecision analysis for ranking alternatives with fuzzy data for decision making using the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS). In the proposed approach, fuzzy decision information related to the aircraft selection problem is taken into account in ranking the alternatives and selecting the best one. The basic procedural step is to transform the fuzzy decision matrices into matrices of alternatives evaluated according to all decision criteria. A numerical example illustrates the proposed approach for the military combat aircraft selection problem.

Keywords: trapezoidal fuzzy numbers, multiple criteria decision making analysis, decision making, aircraft selection, MCDMA, fuzzy TOPSIS

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Authors: Ajay Shekhar Pandey, D. Singh, S. K. Sinha

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A clustering based technique has been developed and implemented for Short Term Load Forecasting, in this article. Formulation has been done using Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) as an objective function. Data Matrix and cluster size are optimization variables. Model designed, uses two temperature variables. This is compared with six input Radial Basis Function Neural Network (RBFNN) and Fuzzy Inference Neural Network (FINN) for the data of the same system, for same time period. The fuzzy inference system has the network structure and the training procedure of a neural network which initially creates a rule base from existing historical load data. It is observed that the proposed clustering based model is giving better forecasting accuracy as compared to the other two methods. Test results also indicate that the RBFNN can forecast future loads with accuracy comparable to that of proposed method, where as the training time required in the case of FINN is much less.

Keywords: Load forecasting, clustering, fuzzy inference.

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Authors: Jimeng Shi, Mahek Jain, Giri Narasimhan

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Time Series Forecasting (TSF) is used to predict the target variables at a future time point based on the learning from previous time points. To keep the problem tractable, learning methods use data from a fixed length window in the past as an explicit input. In this paper, we study how the performance of predictive models change as a function of different look-back window sizes and different amounts of time to predict into the future. We also consider the performance of the recent attention-based transformer models, which had good success in the image processing and natural language processing domains. In all, we compare four different deep learning methods (Recurrent Neural Network (RNN), Long Short-term Memory (LSTM), Gated Recurrent Units (GRU), and Transformer) along with a baseline method. The dataset (hourly) we used is the Beijing Air Quality Dataset from the website of University of California, Irvine (UCI), which includes a multivariate time series of many factors measured on an hourly basis for a period of 5 years (2010-14). For each model, we also report on the relationship between the performance and the look-back window sizes and the number of predicted time points into the future. Our experiments suggest that Transformer models have the best performance with the lowest Mean   Absolute Errors (MAE = 14.599, 23.273) and Root Mean Square Errors (RSME = 23.573, 38.131) for most of our single-step and multi-steps predictions. The best size for the look-back window to predict 1 hour into the future appears to be one day, while 2 or 4 days perform the best to predict 3 hours into the future.

Keywords: Air quality prediction, deep learning algorithms, time series forecasting, look-back window.

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Authors: František Včelař, Zuzana Pátíková

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Recently a new type of very general relational structures, the so called (L-)complete propelattices, was introduced. These significantly generalize complete lattices and completely lattice L-ordered sets, because they do not assume the technically very strong property of transitivity. For these structures also the main part of the original Tarski’s fixed point theorem holds for (L-fuzzy) isotone maps, i.e., the part which concerns the existence of fixed points and the structure of their set. In this paper, fundamental properties of (L-)complete propelattices are recalled and the so called L-fuzzy relatively isotone maps are introduced. For these maps it is proved that they also have fixed points in L-complete propelattices, even if their set does not have to be of an awaited analogous structure of a complete propelattice.

Keywords: Fixed point, L-complete propelattice, L-fuzzy (relatively) isotone map, residuated lattice, transitivity.

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Authors: Prasan Pitiranggon, Nunthika Benjathepanun, Somsri Banditvilai, Veera Boonjing

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Our study proposes an alternative method in building Fuzzy Rule-Based System (FRB) from Support Vector Machine (SVM). The first set of fuzzy IF-THEN rules is obtained through an equivalence of the SVM decision network and the zero-ordered Sugeno FRB type of the Adaptive Network Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS). The second set of rules is generated by combining the first set based on strength of firing signals of support vectors using Gaussian kernel. The final set of rules is then obtained from the second set through input scatter partitioning. A distinctive advantage of our method is the guarantee that the number of final fuzzy IFTHEN rules is not more than the number of support vectors in the trained SVM. The final FRB system obtained is capable of performing classification with results comparable to its SVM counterpart, but it has an advantage over the black-boxed SVM in that it may reveal human comprehensible patterns.

Keywords: Fuzzy Rule Base, Rule Extraction, Rule Generation, Support Vector Machine.

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Authors: Keun-Chang Kwak

Abstract:

This paper is concerned with motion recognition based fuzzy WP(Wavelet Packet) feature extraction approach from Vicon physical data sets. For this purpose, we use an efficient fuzzy mutual-information-based WP transform for feature extraction. This method estimates the required mutual information using a novel approach based on fuzzy membership function. The physical action data set includes 10 normal and 10 aggressive physical actions that measure the human activity. The data have been collected from 10 subjects using the Vicon 3D tracker. The experiments consist of running, seating, and walking as physical activity motion among various activities. The experimental results revealed that the presented feature extraction approach showed good recognition performance.

Keywords: Motion recognition, fuzzy wavelet packet, Vicon physical data.

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Authors: Po-Chun Lin, Jyh-Cherng Gu

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This study adopted previous fault patterns, results of detection analysis, historical records and data, and experts- experiences to establish fuzzy principles and estimate the failure probability index of components of a power transformer. Considering that actual parameters and limiting conditions of parameters may differ, this study used the standard data of IEC, IEEE, and CIGRE as condition parameters. According to the characteristics of each condition parameter, relative degradation was introduced to reflect the degree of influence of the factors on the transformer condition. The method of fuzzy mathematics was adopted to determine the subordinate function of the transformer condition. The calculation used the Matlab Fuzzy Tool Box to select the condition parameters of coil winding, iron core, bushing, OLTC, insulating oil and other auxiliary components and factors (e.g., load records, performance history, and maintenance records) of the transformer to establish the fuzzy principles. Examples were presented to support the rationality and effectiveness of the evaluation method of power transformer performance conditions, as based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation.

Keywords: Fuzzy, relative degradation degree, condition-basedmaintenance, power transformer

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Authors: R. Tur, A. Yardımcı

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Imperfect knowledge cannot be avoided all the time. Imperfections may have several forms; uncertainties, imprecision and incompleteness. When we look to classification of methods for the management of imperfect knowledge we see fuzzy set-based techniques. The choice of a method to process data is linked to the choice of knowledge representation, which can be numerical, symbolic, logical or semantic and it depends on the nature of the problem to be solved for example decision support, which will be mentioned in our study. Fuzzy Logic is used for its ability to manage imprecise knowledge, but it can take advantage of the ability of neural networks to learn coefficients or functions. Such an association of methods is typical of so-called soft computing. In this study a new method was used for the management of imprecision for collected knowledge which related to economic analysis of construction industry in Turkey. Because of sudden changes occurring in economic factors decrease competition strength of construction companies. The better evaluation of these changes in economical factors in view of construction industry will made positive influence on company-s decisions which are dealing construction.

Keywords: Fuzzy logic, decision support systems, construction industry.

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Authors: Bijaya Krushna Mangaraj, Deepak Kumar Das

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Sustainability in rural production system can only be achieved if it can suitably satisfy the local requirement as well as the outside demand with the changing time. With the increased pressure from the food sector in a globalised world, the agrarian economy needs to re-organise its cultivable land system to be compatible with new management practices as well as the multiple needs of various stakeholders and the changing resource scenario. An attempt has been made to transform this problem into a multi-objective decisionmaking problem considering various objectives, resource constraints and conditional constraints. An interactive fuzzy multi-objective programming approach has been used for such a purpose taking a case study in Indian context to demonstrate the validity of the method.

Keywords: Land re-organisation, Crop planning, Multiobjective Decision-Making, Fuzzy Goal Programming.

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Authors: Rao Fu, Jie Chen, Shutian Zeng, Yiping Zhuang, Agus Sudjianto

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Generative Adversarial Net (GAN) has proved to be a powerful machine learning tool in image data analysis and generation. In this paper, we propose to use Conditional Generative Adversarial Net (CGAN) to learn and simulate time series data. The conditions include both categorical and continuous variables with different auxiliary information. Our simulation studies show that CGAN has the capability to learn different types of normal and heavy-tailed distributions, as well as dependent structures of different time series. It also has the capability to generate conditional predictive distributions consistent with training data distributions. We also provide an in-depth discussion on the rationale behind GAN and the neural networks as hierarchical splines to establish a clear connection with existing statistical methods of distribution generation. In practice, CGAN has a wide range of applications in market risk and counterparty risk analysis: it can be applied to learn historical data and generate scenarios for the calculation of Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES), and it can also predict the movement of the market risk factors. We present a real data analysis including a backtesting to demonstrate that CGAN can outperform Historical Simulation (HS), a popular method in market risk analysis to calculate VaR. CGAN can also be applied in economic time series modeling and forecasting. In this regard, we have included an example of hypothetical shock analysis for economic models and the generation of potential CCAR scenarios by CGAN at the end of the paper.

Keywords: Conditional Generative Adversarial Net, market and credit risk management, neural network, time series.

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