Search results for: deterministic chaotic processes
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 1830

Search results for: deterministic chaotic processes

1590 Application of Soft Systems Methodology in Solving Disaster Emergency Logistics Problems

Authors: Alhasan Hakami, Arun Kumar, Sung J Shim, Yousef Abu Nahleh

Abstract:

In recent years, many high intensity earthquakes have occurred around the world, such as the 2011 earthquake in Tohoku, Japan. These large-scale disasters caused huge casualties and losses. In addition, inefficient disaster response operations also caused the second wave of casualties and losses, and expanded the damage. Effective disaster management can be used to respond to the chaotic situation, and reduce the damage; however, some inefficient disaster response operations are still used. Therefore, this case study chose the 921 earthquake for analyzing disaster emergency logistics problems and proposed the Soft Systems Methodology (SSM) to solve disaster emergency logistics problems. Moreover, it analyses the effect of human factors on system operation, and suggests a solution to improve the system.

Keywords: Soft systems methodology, emergency logistics.

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1589 The Role of ICT for Income Inequality: The Model and the Simulations

Authors: Shoji Katagiri

Abstract:

This paper is to clarify the relationship between ICT and income inequality. To do so, we develop the general equilibrium model with ICT investment, obtain the equilibrium solutions, and then simulate the model with these solutions for some OECD countries. As a result, generally, during the corresponding periods we confirm that the relationship between ICT investment and income inequality is positive. In this mode, the increment of the ratio of ICT investment to the aggregated investment in stock enhances the capital’s share of income, and finally leads to income inequality such as the increase of the share of the top decile income. Although we confirm the positive relationship between ICT investment and income inequality, the upward trend for that relationship depends on the values of parameters for the making use of the simulations and these parameters are not deterministic in the magnitudes on the calculated results for the simulations.

Keywords: ICT, inequality, capital accumulation, technology.

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1588 Mathematical Modeling of the Influence of Hydrothermal Processes in the Water Reservoir

Authors: Alibek Issakhov

Abstract:

In this paper presents the mathematical model of hydrothermal processes in thermal power plant with different wind direction scenarios in the water reservoir, which is solved by the Navier - Stokes and temperature equations for an incompressible fluid in a stratified medium. Numerical algorithm based on the method of splitting by physical parameters. Three dimensional Poisson equation is solved with Fourier method by combination of tridiagonal matrix method (Thomas algorithm).

Keywords: thermal power plant, hydrothermal process, large eddy simulation, water reservoir

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1587 Chua’s Circuit Regulation Using a Nonlinear Adaptive Feedback Technique

Authors: Abolhassan Razminia, Mohammad-Ali Sadrnia

Abstract:

Chua’s circuit is one of the most important electronic devices that are used for Chaos and Bifurcation studies. A central role of secure communication is devoted to it. Since the adaptive control is used vastly in the linear systems control, here we introduce a new trend of application of adaptive method in the chaos controlling field. In this paper, we try to derive a new adaptive control scheme for Chua’s circuit controlling because control of chaos is often very important in practical operations. The novelty of this approach is for sake of its robustness against the external perturbations which is simulated as an additive noise in all measured states and can be generalized to other chaotic systems. Our approach is based on Lyapunov analysis and the adaptation law is considered for the feedback gain. Because of this, we have named it NAFT (Nonlinear Adaptive Feedback Technique). At last, simulations show the capability of the presented technique for Chua’s circuit.

Keywords: Chaos, adaptive control, nonlinear control, Chua's circuit.

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1586 Use of Natural Fibers in Landfill Leachate Treatment

Authors: J. F. Marina Araujo, F. Marcus Vinicius Araujo, R. Daniella Mulinari

Abstract:

Due to the resultant leachate from waste decomposition in landfills has polluter potential hundred times greater than domestic sewage, this is considered a problem related to the depreciation of environment requiring pre-disposal treatment.In seeking to improve this situation, this project proposes the treatment of landfill leachate using natural fibers intercropped with advanced oxidation processes. The selected natural fibers were palm, coconut and banana fiber.These materials give sustainability to the project because, besides having adsorbent capacity, are often part of waste discarded. The study was conducted in laboratory scale.In trials, the effluents were characterized as Chemical Oxygen Demand (COD), Turbidity and Color. The results indicate that is technically promising since that there were extremely oxidative conditions, the use of certain natural fibers in the reduction of pollutants in leachate have been obtained results of COD removals between 67.9% and 90.9%, Turbidity between 88.0% and 99.7% and Color between 67.4% and 90.4%.The expectation generated is to continue evaluating the association of efficiency of other natural fibers with other landfill leachate treatment processes.

Keywords: Landfill leachate, chemical treatment, natural Fibers, advanced oxidation processes.

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1585 Learning the Dynamics of Articulated Tracked Vehicles

Authors: Mario Gianni, Manuel A. Ruiz Garcia, Fiora Pirri

Abstract:

In this work, we present a Bayesian non-parametric approach to model the motion control of ATVs. The motion control model is based on a Dirichlet Process-Gaussian Process (DP-GP) mixture model. The DP-GP mixture model provides a flexible representation of patterns of control manoeuvres along trajectories of different lengths and discretizations. The model also estimates the number of patterns, sufficient for modeling the dynamics of the ATV.

Keywords: Dirichlet processes, Gaussian processes, robot control learning, tracked vehicles.

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1584 The Problem of Using the Calculation of the Critical Path to Solver Instances of the Job Shop Scheduling Problem

Authors: Marco Antonio Cruz-Chávez, Juan Frausto-Solís, Fernando Ramos-Quintana

Abstract:

A procedure commonly used in Job Shop Scheduling Problem (JSSP) to evaluate the neighborhoods functions that use the non-deterministic algorithms is the calculation of the critical path in a digraph. This paper presents an experimental study of the cost of computation that exists when the calculation of the critical path in the solution for instances in which a JSSP of large size is involved. The results indicate that if the critical path is use in order to generate neighborhoods in the meta-heuristics that are used in JSSP, an elevated cost of computation exists in spite of the fact that the calculation of the critical path in any digraph is of polynomial complexity.

Keywords: Job Shop, CPM, critical path, neighborhood, meta-heuristic.

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1583 Bandwidth allocation in ATM Network for different QOS Requirements

Authors: H. El-Madbouly

Abstract:

For future Broad band ISDN, Asynchronous Transfer Mode (ATM) is designed not only to support a wide range of traffic classes with diverse flow characteristics, but also to guarantee the different quality of service QOS requirements. The QOS may be measured in terms of cell loss probability and maximum cell delay. In this paper, ATM networks in which the virtual path (VP) concept is implemented are considered. By applying the Markov Deterministic process method, an efficient algorithm to compute the minimum capacity required to satisfy the QOS requirements when multiple classes of on-off are multiplexed on to a single VP. Using the result, we then proposed a simple algorithm to determine different combinations of VP to achieve the optimum of the total capacity required for satisfying the individual QOS requirements (loss- delay).

Keywords: Bandwidth allocation, Quality of services, ATMNetwork, virtual path.

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1582 Synchronization between the Slow Oscillations in the Human Cardiovascular System

Authors: M. D. Prokhorov, V. I. Ponomarenko, A. S. Karavaev, A. R. Kiselev, V. I. Gridnev

Abstract:

Synchronization between the slow oscillations of heart rate and blood pressure having in humans a basic frequency close to 0.1 Hz is investigated. A method is proposed for quantitative estimation of synchronization between these oscillating processes based on calculation of relative time of phase synchronization of oscillations. It is shown that healthy subjects exhibit in average substantially longer epochs of synchronization between the slow oscillations in heart rate and blood pressure than patients after acute myocardial infarction

Keywords: Cardiovascular system, slow oscillating processes, synchronization.

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1581 Image Authenticity and Perceptual Optimization via Genetic Algorithm and a Dependence Neighborhood

Authors: Imran Usman, Asifullah Khan, Rafiullah Chamlawi, Abdul Majid

Abstract:

Information hiding for authenticating and verifying the content integrity of the multimedia has been exploited extensively in the last decade. We propose the idea of using genetic algorithm and non-deterministic dependence by involving the un-watermarkable coefficients for digital image authentication. Genetic algorithm is used to intelligently select coefficients for watermarking in a DCT based image authentication scheme, which implicitly watermark all the un-watermarkable coefficients also, in order to thwart different attacks. Experimental results show that such intelligent selection results in improvement of imperceptibility of the watermarked image, and implicit watermarking of all the coefficients improves security against attacks such as cover-up, vector quantization and transplantation.

Keywords: Digital watermarking, fragile watermarking, geneticalgorithm, Image authentication.

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1580 A New Stabilizing GPC for Nonminimum Phase LTI Systems Using Time Varying Weighting

Authors: Mahdi Yaghobi, Mohammad Haeri

Abstract:

In this paper, we show that the stability can not be achieved with current stabilizing MPC methods for some unstable processes. Hence we present a new method for stabilizing these processes. The main idea is to use a new time varying weighted cost function for traditional GPC. This stabilizes the closed loop system without adding soft or hard constraint in optimization problem. By studying different examples it is shown that using the proposed method, the closed-loop stability of unstable nonminimum phase process is achieved.

Keywords: GPC, Stability, Varying Weighting Coefficients.

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1579 Tool Failure Detection Based on Statistical Analysis of Metal Cutting Acoustic Emission Signals

Authors: Othman Belgassim, Krzysztof Jemielniak

Abstract:

The analysis of Acoustic Emission (AE) signal generated from metal cutting processes has often approached statistically. This is due to the stochastic nature of the emission signal as a result of factors effecting the signal from its generation through transmission and sensing. Different techniques are applied in this manner, each of which is suitable for certain processes. In metal cutting where the emission generated by the deformation process is rather continuous, an appropriate method for analysing the AE signal based on the root mean square (RMS) of the signal is often used and is suitable for use with the conventional signal processing systems. The aim of this paper is to set a strategy in tool failure detection in turning processes via the statistic analysis of the AE generated from the cutting zone. The strategy is based on the investigation of the distribution moments of the AE signal at predetermined sampling. The skews and kurtosis of these distributions are the key elements in the detection. A normal (Gaussian) distribution has first been suggested then this was eliminated due to insufficiency. The so called Beta distribution was then considered, this has been used with an assumed β density function and has given promising results with regard to chipping and tool breakage detection.

Keywords: AE signal, skew, kurtosis, tool failure

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1578 Civil Service Reforms in Kazakhstan and Its Influence on Modernization

Authors: Aliya Idrissova

Abstract:

Civil service (public administration) is an important social institution of society properties. Civil service institution had a significant impact on modernization processes in Kazakhstan through ensuring the functioning of all the subsystems of social life. This article is an attempt to analyze the reforms of public service institution in Kazakhstan and to assess its influence on modernization processes.

Keywords: Civil service, Kazakhstan, modernization, a national model of civil service, civil service reforms, bureaucracy.

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1577 A Multi-objective Fuzzy Optimization Method of Resource Input Based on Genetic Algorithm

Authors: Tao Zhao, Xin Wang

Abstract:

With the increasing complexity of engineering problems, the traditional, single-objective and deterministic optimization method can not meet people-s requirements. A multi-objective fuzzy optimization model of resource input is built for M chlor-alkali chemical eco-industrial park in this paper. First, the model is changed into the form that can be solved by genetic algorithm using fuzzy theory. And then, a fitness function is constructed for genetic algorithm. Finally, a numerical example is presented to show that the method compared with traditional single-objective optimization method is more practical and efficient.

Keywords: Fitness function, genetic algorithm, multi-objectivefuzzy optimization, satisfaction degree membership function.

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1576 Joint Use of Factor Analysis (FA) and Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) for Ranking of Data Envelopment Analysis

Authors: Reza Nadimi, Fariborz Jolai

Abstract:

This article combines two techniques: data envelopment analysis (DEA) and Factor analysis (FA) to data reduction in decision making units (DMU). Data envelopment analysis (DEA), a popular linear programming technique is useful to rate comparatively operational efficiency of decision making units (DMU) based on their deterministic (not necessarily stochastic) input–output data and factor analysis techniques, have been proposed as data reduction and classification technique, which can be applied in data envelopment analysis (DEA) technique for reduction input – output data. Numerical results reveal that the new approach shows a good consistency in ranking with DEA.

Keywords: Effectiveness, Decision Making, Data EnvelopmentAnalysis, Factor Analysis

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1575 Thermodynamic Attainable Region for Direct Synthesis of Dimethyl Ether from Synthesis Gas

Authors: Thulane Paepae, Tumisang Seodigeng

Abstract:

This paper demonstrates the use of a method of synthesizing process flowsheets using a graphical tool called the GH-plot and in particular, to look at how it can be used to compare the reactions of a combined simultaneous process with regard to their thermodynamics. The technique uses fundamental thermodynamic principles to allow the mass, energy and work balances locate the attainable region for chemical processes in a reactor. This provides guidance on what design decisions would be best suited to developing new processes that are more effective and make lower demands on raw material and energy usage.

Keywords: Attainable region, dimethyl ether synthesis, mass balance, optimal reaction networks.

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1574 Using ε Value in Describe Regular Languages by Using Finite Automata, Operation on Languages and the Changing Algorithm Implementation

Authors: Abdulmajid Mukhtar Afat

Abstract:

This paper aims at introducing nondeterministic finite automata with ε value which is used to perform some operations on languages. a program is created to implement the algorithm that converts nondeterministic finite automata with ε value (ε-NFA) to deterministic finite automata (DFA).The program is written in c++ programming language. The program inputs are FA 5-tuples from text file and then classifies it into either DFA/NFA or ε -NFA. For DFA, the program will get the string w and decide whether it is accepted or rejected. The tracking path for an accepted string is saved by the program. In case of NFA or ε-NFA automation, the program changes the automation to DFA to enable tracking and to decide if the string w exists in the regular language or not.

Keywords: Finite automata, DFA, NFA, ε-NFA, Eclose, operations on languages.

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1573 Online Prediction of Nonlinear Signal Processing Problems Based Kernel Adaptive Filtering

Authors: Hamza Nejib, Okba Taouali

Abstract:

This paper presents two of the most knowing kernel adaptive filtering (KAF) approaches, the kernel least mean squares and the kernel recursive least squares, in order to predict a new output of nonlinear signal processing. Both of these methods implement a nonlinear transfer function using kernel methods in a particular space named reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) where the model is a linear combination of kernel functions applied to transform the observed data from the input space to a high dimensional feature space of vectors, this idea known as the kernel trick. Then KAF is the developing filters in RKHS. We use two nonlinear signal processing problems, Mackey Glass chaotic time series prediction and nonlinear channel equalization to figure the performance of the approaches presented and finally to result which of them is the adapted one.

Keywords: KLMS, online prediction, KAF, signal processing, RKHS, Kernel methods, KRLS, KLMS.

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1572 A Study of Computational Organizational Narrative Generation for Decision Support

Authors: Yeung C.L., Cheung C.F., Wang W.M., Tsui E.

Abstract:

Narratives are invaluable assets of human lives. Due to the distinct features of narratives, they are useful for supporting human reasoning processes. However, many useful narratives become residuals in organizations or human minds nowadays. Researchers have contributed effort to investigate and improve narrative generation processes. This paper attempts to contemplate essential components in narratives and explore a computational approach to acquire and extract knowledge to generate narratives. The methodology and significant benefit for decision support are presented.

Keywords: Decision Support, Knowledge Management, Knowledge-based Systems, Narrative Generation

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1571 Independent Design of Multi-loop PI/PID Controllers for Multi-delay Processes

Authors: Truong Nguyen Luan Vu, Moonyong Lee

Abstract:

The interactions between input/output variables are a very common phenomenon encountered in the design of multi-loop controllers for interacting multivariable processes, which can be a serious obstacle for achieving a good overall performance of multiloop control system. To overcome this impediment, the decomposed dynamic interaction analysis is proposed by decomposing the multiloop control system into a set of n independent SISO systems with the corresponding effective open-loop transfer function (EOTF) within the dynamic interactions embedded explicitly. For each EOTF, the reduced model is independently formulated by using the proposed reduction design strategy, and then the paired multi-loop proportional-integral-derivative (PID) controller is derived quite simply and straightforwardly by using internal model control (IMC) theory. This design method can easily be implemented for various industrial processes because of its effectiveness. Several case studies are considered to demonstrate the superior of the proposed method.

Keywords: Multi-loop PID controller, internal model control(IMC), effective open-loop transfer function (EOTF)

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1570 Tuning of Power System Stabilizers in a Multi- Machine Power System using C-Catfish PSO

Authors: M. H. Moradi, S. M. Moosavi, A. R. Reisi

Abstract:

The main objective of this paper is to investigate the enhancement of power system stability via coordinated tuning of Power System Stabilizers (PSSs) in a multi-machine power system. The design problem of the proposed controllers is formulated as an optimization problem. Chaotic catfish particle swarm optimization (C-Catfish PSO) algorithm is used to minimize the ITAE objective function. The proposed algorithm is evaluated on a two-area, 4- machines system. The robustness of the proposed algorithm is verified on this system under different operating conditions and applying a three-phase fault. The nonlinear time-domain simulation results and some performance indices show the effectiveness of the proposed controller in damping power system oscillations and this novel optimization algorithm is compared with particle swarm optimization (PSO).

Keywords: Power system stabilizer, C-Catfish PSO, ITAE objective function, Power system control, Multi-machine power system

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1569 A Comprehensive and Integrated Framework for Formal Specification of Concurrent Systems

Authors: Sara Sharifi Rad, Hassan Haghighi

Abstract:

Due to important issues, such as deadlock, starvation, communication, non-deterministic behavior and synchronization, concurrent systems are very complex, sensitive, and error-prone. Thus ensuring reliability and accuracy of these systems is very essential. Therefore, there has been a big interest in the formal specification of concurrent programs in recent years. Nevertheless, some features of concurrent systems, such as dynamic process creation, scheduling and starvation have not been specified formally yet. Also, some other features have been specified partially and/or have been described using a combination of several different formalisms and methods whose integration needs too much effort. In other words, a comprehensive and integrated specification that could cover all aspects of concurrent systems has not been provided yet. Thus, this paper makes two major contributions: firstly, it provides a comprehensive formal framework to specify all well-known features of concurrent systems. Secondly, it provides an integrated specification of these features by using just a single formal notation, i.e., the Z language.

Keywords: Concurrent systems, Formal methods, Formal specification, Z language

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1568 Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process for Determination of Supply Chain Performance Evaluation Criteria

Authors: Ibrahim Cil, Onur Kurtcu, H. Ibrahim Demir, Furkan Yener, Yusuf. S. Turkan, Muharrem Unver, Ramazan Evren

Abstract:

Fuzzy AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) method is decision-making way at the end of integrating the current AHP method with fuzzy structure. In this study, the processes of production planning, inventory management and purchasing department of a system were analysed and were requested to decide the performance criteria of each area. At this point, the current work processes were analysed by various decision-makers and comparing each criteria by giving points according to 1-9 scale were completed. The criteria were listed in order to their weights by using Fuzzy AHP approach and top three performance criteria of each department were determined. After that, the performance criteria of supply chain consisting of three departments were asked to determine. The processes of each department were compared by decision-makers at the point of building the supply chain performance system and getting the performance criteria. According to the results, the criteria of performance system of supply chain by using Fuzzy AHP were determined for which will be used in the supply chain performance system in the future.

Keywords: AHP, fuzzy, performance evaluation, supply chain.

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1567 Application of the Data Distribution Service for Flexible Manufacturing Automation

Authors: Marco Ryll, Svetan Ratchev

Abstract:

This paper discusses the applicability of the Data Distribution Service (DDS) for the development of automated and modular manufacturing systems which require a flexible and robust communication infrastructure. DDS is an emergent standard for datacentric publish/subscribe middleware systems that provides an infrastructure for platform-independent many-to-many communication. It particularly addresses the needs of real-time systems that require deterministic data transfer, have low memory footprints and high robustness requirements. After an overview of the standard, several aspects of DDS are related to current challenges for the development of modern manufacturing systems with distributed architectures. Finally, an example application is presented based on a modular active fixturing system to illustrate the described aspects.

Keywords: Flexible Manufacturing, Publish/Subscribe, Plug & Produce.

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1566 Optimized Weight Vector for QoS Aware Web Service Selection Algorithm Using Particle Swarm Optimization

Authors: N. Arulanand, P. M. Ananth

Abstract:

Quality of Service (QoS) attributes as part of the service description is an important factor for service attribute. It is not easy to exactly quantify the weight of each QoS conditions since human judgments based on their preference causes vagueness. As web services selection requires optimization, evolutionary computing based on heuristics to select an optimal solution is adopted. In this work, the evolutionary computing technique Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) is used for selecting a suitable web services based on the user’s weightage of each QoS values by optimizing the QoS weight vector and thereby finding the best weight vectors for best services that is being selected. Finally the results are compared and analyzed using static inertia weight and deterministic inertia weight of PSO.

Keywords: QoS, Optimization, Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO), weight vector, web services, web service selection.

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1565 Wasteless Solid-Phase Method for Conversion of Iron Ores Contaminated with Silicon and Phosphorus Compounds

Authors: А. V. Panko, Е. V. Ablets, I. G. Kovzun, М. А. Ilyashov

Abstract:

Based upon generalized analysis of modern know-how in the sphere of processing, concentration and purification of iron-ore raw materials (IORM), in particular, the most widespread ferrioxide-silicate materials (FOSM), containing impurities of phosphorus and other elements compounds, noted special role of nanotechnological initiatives in improvement of such processes. Considered ideas of role of nanoparticles in processes of FOSM carbonization with subsequent direct reduction of ferric oxides contained in them to metal phase, as well as in processes of alkali treatment and separation of powered iron from phosphorus compounds. Using the obtained results the wasteless method of solid-phase processing, concentration and purification of IORM and FOSM from compounds of phosphorus, silicon and other impurities was developed and it excels known methods of direct iron reduction from iron ores and metallurgical slimes.

Keywords: Iron ores, solid-phase reduction, nanoparticles in reduction and purification of iron from silicon and phosphorus, wasteless method of ores processing.

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1564 A State Aggregation Approach to Singularly Perturbed Markov Reward Processes

Authors: Dali Zhang, Baoqun Yin, Hongsheng Xi

Abstract:

In this paper, we propose a single sample path based algorithm with state aggregation to optimize the average rewards of singularly perturbed Markov reward processes (SPMRPs) with a large scale state spaces. It is assumed that such a reward process depend on a set of parameters. Differing from the other kinds of Markov chain, SPMRPs have their own hierarchical structure. Based on this special structure, our algorithm can alleviate the load in the optimization for performance. Moreover, our method can be applied on line because of its evolution with the sample path simulated. Compared with the original algorithm applied on these problems of general MRPs, a new gradient formula for average reward performance metric in SPMRPs is brought in, which will be proved in Appendix, and then based on these gradients, the schedule of the iteration algorithm is presented, which is based on a single sample path, and eventually a special case in which parameters only dominate the disturbance matrices will be analyzed, and a precise comparison with be displayed between our algorithm with the old ones which is aim to solve these problems in general Markov reward processes. When applied in SPMRPs, our method will approach a fast pace in these cases. Furthermore, to illustrate the practical value of SPMRPs, a simple example in multiple programming in computer systems will be listed and simulated. Corresponding to some practical model, physical meanings of SPMRPs in networks of queues will be clarified.

Keywords: Singularly perturbed Markov processes, Gradient of average reward, Differential reward, State aggregation, Perturbed close network.

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1563 Nonlinear Controller for Fuzzy Model of Double Inverted Pendulums

Authors: I. Zamani, M. H. Zarif

Abstract:

In this paper a method for designing of nonlinear controller for a fuzzy model of Double Inverted Pendulum is proposed. This system can be considered as a fuzzy large-scale system that includes offset terms and disturbance in each subsystem. Offset terms are deterministic and disturbances are satisfied a matching condition that is mentioned in the paper. Based on Lyapunov theorem, a nonlinear controller is designed for this fuzzy system (as a model reference base) which is simple in computation and guarantees stability. This idea can be used for other fuzzy large- scale systems that include more subsystems Finally, the results are shown.

Keywords: Controller, Fuzzy Double Inverted Pendulums, Fuzzy Large-Scale Systems, Lyapunov Stability.

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1562 Time Series Modelling and Prediction of River Runoff: Case Study of Karkheh River, Iran

Authors: Karim Hamidi Machekposhti, Hossein Sedghi, Abdolrasoul Telvari, Hossein Babazadeh

Abstract:

Rainfall and runoff phenomenon is a chaotic and complex outcome of nature which requires sophisticated modelling and simulation methods for explanation and use. Time Series modelling allows runoff data analysis and can be used as forecasting tool. In the paper attempt is made to model river runoff data and predict the future behavioural pattern of river based on annual past observations of annual river runoff. The river runoff analysis and predict are done using ARIMA model. For evaluating the efficiency of prediction to hydrological events such as rainfall, runoff and etc., we use the statistical formulae applicable. The good agreement between predicted and observation river runoff coefficient of determination (R2) display that the ARIMA (4,1,1) is the suitable model for predicting Karkheh River runoff at Iran.

Keywords: Time series modelling, ARIMA model, River runoff, Karkheh River, CLS method.

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1561 A Numerical Model for Studying Convectional Lifting Processes in the Tropics

Authors: Chantawan Noisri, Robert Harold Buchanan Exell

Abstract:

A simple model for studying convectional lifting processes in the tropics is described in this paper with some tests of the model in dry air. The model consists of the density equation, the wind equation, the vertical velocity equation, and the temperature equation. The model domain is two-dimensional with length 100 km and height 17.5 km. Plan for experiments to investigate the effects of the heating surface, the deep convection approximation and the treatment of velocities at the boundaries are discussed. Equations for the simplified treatment of moisture in the atmosphere in future numerical experiments are also given.

Keywords: Numerical weather prediction, Finite differences, Convection lifting.

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