Search results for: cognitive modeling
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 2374

Search results for: cognitive modeling

2224 Modeling UWSN Simulators – A Taxonomy

Authors: Christhu Raj, Rajeev Sukumaran

Abstract:

In this research article of modeling Underwater Wireless Sensor Network Simulators, we provide a comprehensive overview of the various currently available simulators used in UWSN modeling. In this work, we compare their working environment, software platform, simulation language, key features, limitations and corresponding applications. Based on extensive experimentation and performance analysis, we provide their efficiency for specific applications. We have also provided guidelines for developing protocols in different layers of the protocol stack, and finally these parameters are also compared and tabulated. This analysis is significant for researchers and designers to find the right simulator for their research activities.

Keywords: Underwater Wireless Sensor networks (UWSN), SUNSET, NS2, OPNET, WOSS, DESERT, RECORDS, Aqua- Sim, Aqua- Net Mate.

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2223 A Timed and Colored Petri Nets for Modeling and Verifying Cloud System Elasticity

Authors: W. Louhichi, M.Berrima, N. Ben Rajeb Robbana

Abstract:

Elasticity is the essential property of cloud computing. As the name suggests, it constitutes the ability of a cloud system to adjust resource provisioning in relation to fluctuating workloads. There are two types of elasticity operations, vertical and horizontal. In this work, we are interested in horizontal scaling, which is ensured by two mechanisms; scaling in and scaling out. Following the sizing of the system, we can adopt scaling in the event of over-supply and scaling out in the event of under-supply. In this paper, we propose a formal model, based on temporized and colored Petri nets (TdCPNs), for the modeling of the duplication and the removal of a virtual machine from a server. This model is based on formal Petri Nets (PNs) modeling language. The proposed models are edited, verified, and simulated with two examples implemented in colored Petri nets (CPNs)tools, which is a modeling tool for colored and timed PNs.

Keywords: Cloud computing, elasticity, elasticity controller, petri nets, scaling in, scaling out.

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2222 Dynamic Modeling and Simulation of Threephase Small Power Induction Motor

Authors: Nyein Nyein Soe, Thet Thet Han Yee, Soe Sandar Aung

Abstract:

This paper is proposed the dynamic simulation of small power induction motor based on Mathematical modeling. The dynamic simulation is one of the key steps in the validation of the design process of the motor drive systems and it is needed for eliminating inadvertent design mistakes and the resulting error in the prototype construction and testing. This paper demonstrates the simulation of steady-state performance of induction motor by MATLAB Program Three phase 3 hp induction motor is modeled and simulated with SIMULINK model.

Keywords: Squirrel cage induction motor, modeling andsimulation, MATLAB software, torque, speed.

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2221 The Effects of the Impact of Instructional Immediacy on Cognition and Learning in Online Classes

Authors: Glenda A. Gunter

Abstract:

Current research has explored the impact of instructional immediacy, defined as those behaviors that help build close relationships or feelings of closeness, both on cognition and motivation in the traditional classroom and online classroom; however, online courses continue to suffer from higher dropout rates. Based on Albert Bandura-s Social Cognitive Theory, four primary relationships or interactions in an online course will be explored in light of how they can provide immediacy thereby reducing student attrition and improving cognitive learning. The four relationships are teacher-student, student-student, and student-content, and studentcomputer. Results of a study conducted with inservice teachers completing a 14-week online professional development technology course will be examined to demonstrate immediacy strategies that improve cognitive learning and reduce student attrition. Results of the study reveal that students can be motivated through various interactions and instructional immediacy behaviors which lead to higher completion rates, improved self-efficacy, and cognitive learning.

Keywords: Distance Learning, Self-Efficacy, Instructional immediacy, Student achievement.

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2220 A Novel Method for Behavior Modeling in Uncertain Information Systems

Authors: Ali Haroonabadi, Mohammad Teshnehlab

Abstract:

None of the processing models in the software development has explained the software systems performance evaluation and modeling; likewise, there exist uncertainty in the information systems because of the natural essence of requirements, and this may cause other challenges in the processing of software development. By definition an extended version of UML (Fuzzy- UML), the functional requirements of the software defined uncertainly would be supported. In this study, the behavioral description of uncertain information systems by the aid of fuzzy-state diagram is crucial; moreover, the introduction of behavioral diagrams role in F-UML is investigated in software performance modeling process. To get the aim, a fuzzy sub-profile is used.

Keywords: Fuzzy System, Software Development Model, Software Performance Evaluation, UML

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2219 A General Framework for Modeling Replicated Real-Time Database

Authors: Hala Abdel hameed, Hazem M. El-Bakry, Torky Sultan

Abstract:

There are many issues that affect modeling and designing real-time databases. One of those issues is maintaining consistency between the actual state of the real-time object of the external environment and its images as reflected by all its replicas distributed over multiple nodes. The need to improve the scalability is another important issue. In this paper, we present a general framework to design a replicated real-time database for small to medium scale systems and maintain all timing constrains. In order to extend the idea for modeling a large scale database, we present a general outline that consider improving the scalability by using an existing static segmentation algorithm applied on the whole database, with the intent to lower the degree of replication, enables segments to have individual degrees of replication with the purpose of avoiding excessive resource usage, which all together contribute in solving the scalability problem for DRTDBS.

Keywords: Database modeling, Distributed database, Real time databases, Replication

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2218 Using Gaussian Process in Wind Power Forecasting

Authors: Hacene Benkhoula, Mohamed Badreddine Benabdella, Hamid Bouzeboudja, Abderrahmane Asraoui

Abstract:

The wind is a random variable difficult to master, for this, we developed a mathematical and statistical methods enable to modeling and forecast wind power. Gaussian Processes (GP) is one of the most widely used families of stochastic processes for modeling dependent data observed over time, or space or time and space. GP is an underlying process formed by unrecognized operator’s uses to solve a problem. The purpose of this paper is to present how to forecast wind power by using the GP. The Gaussian process method for forecasting are presented. To validate the presented approach, a simulation under the MATLAB environment has been given.

Keywords: Forecasting, Gaussian process, modeling, wind power.

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2217 A Social Cognitive Investigation in the Context of Vocational Training Performance of People with Disabilities

Authors: Majid A. AlSayari

Abstract:

The study reported here investigated social cognitive theory (SCT) in the context of Vocational Rehab (VR) for people with disabilities. The prime purpose was to increase knowledge of VR phenomena and make recommendations for improving VR services. The sample consisted of 242 persons with Spinal Cord Injuries (SCI) who completed questionnaires. A further 32 participants were Trainers. Analysis of questionnaire data was carried out using factor analysis, multiple regression analysis, and thematic analysis. The analysis suggested that, in motivational terms, and consistent with research carried out in other academic contexts, self-efficacy was the best predictor of VR performance. The author concludes that that VR self-efficacy predicted VR training performance.

Keywords: Social cognitive theory, vocational rehab, self-efficacy, proxy efficacy, people with disabilities.

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2216 Multi-Agent Based Modeling Using Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis and OLAP System for Decision Support Problems

Authors: Omar Boutkhoum, Mohamed Hanine, Tarik Agouti, Abdessadek Tikniouine

Abstract:

This paper discusses the intake of combining multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) with OLAP systems, to generate an integrated analysis process dealing with complex multi-criteria decision-making situations. In this context, a multi-agent modeling is presented for decision support systems by combining multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) with OLAP systems. The proposed modeling which consists in performing the multi-agent system (MAS) architecture, procedure and protocol of the negotiation model is elaborated as a decision support tool for complex decision-making environments. Our objective is to take advantage from the multi-agent system which distributes resources and computational capabilities across interconnected agents, and provide a problem modeling in terms of autonomous interacting component-agents. Thus, the identification and evaluation of criteria as well as the evaluation and ranking of alternatives in a decision support situation will be performed by organizing tasks and user preferences between different agents in order to reach the right decision. At the end, an illustrative example is conducted to demonstrate the function and effectiveness of our MAS modeling.

Keywords: Multidimensional Analysis, OLAP Analysis, Multi-criteria Decision Analysis, Multi-Agent System, Decision Support System.

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2215 Mechanical Modeling Issues in Optimization of Dynamic Behavior of RF MEMS Switches

Authors: Suhas K, Sripadaraja K

Abstract:

This paper details few mechanical modeling and design issues of RF MEMS switches. We concentrate on an electrostatically actuated broad side series switch; surface micromachined with a crab leg membrane. The same results are extended to any complex structure. With available experimental data and fabrication results, we present the variation in dynamic performance and compliance of the switch with reference to few design issues, which we find are critical in deciding the dynamic behavior of the switch, without compromise on the RF characteristics. The optimization of pull in voltage, transient time and resonant frequency with regard to these critical design parameters are also presented.

Keywords: Microelectromechanical Systems (MEMS), RadioFrequency MEMS, Modeling, Actuators

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2214 Different Multimedia Presentation Types and Students' Interpretation Achievement

Authors: Cenk Akbiyik, Gonul Altin Akbiyik

Abstract:

The main purpose of the study was to determine whether students- interpretation achievement differed with the use of various multimedia presentation types. Four groups of students, text only (T), audio only (A), text and audio (TA), text and image (TI), were arranged and they were presented the same story via different types of multimedia presentations. Inference achievement was measured by a critical thinking inference test. Higher mean scores for the TA group compared to the other three groups were found. Also when compared pairwise, interpretation achievement of the TA group differed significantly from scores of the T and TI groups. These differences were interpreted with the increased cognitive load. Increased cognitive load for the TA group may have invited students to put more effort into comprehending the text, thus resulting in better test scores. Findings of the study can be seen as a sign of the importance of learning situations and learning outcomes in multimedia-supported learning environments and may have practical benefits for instructional designers.

Keywords: Multimedia, cognitive multimedia, dual coding, cognitive load, critical thinking.

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2213 Effects of a Recreational Workout Program on Task-Analyzed Exercise Performance of Adults with Severe Cognitive Impairments

Authors: Jiabei Zhang, Amanda Rapelje, Christopher Farr, Kristin Colwell, Zezhao Chen

Abstract:

The purpose of this study was to investigate the effectiveness of a recreational workout program for adults with disabilities over two semesters. This investigation was an action study conducted in a naturalistic setting. Participants included equal numbers of adults with severe cognitive impairments (n = 35) and adults without disabilities (n = 35). Adults with disabilities severe cognitive impairments were trained 6 self-initiated workout activities over two semesters by adults without disabilities. The numbers of task-analyzed steps of each activity performed correctly by each participant at the first and last weeks of each semester were used for data analysis. Results of the paired t-tests indicate that across two semesters, significant differences between the first and last weeks were found on 4 out of the 6 task-analyzed workout activities at a statistical level of significance p < .05. The recreational workout program developed in this study was effective.

Keywords: Workout program, exercise performance, adults, sever cognitive impairment.

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2212 Monomial Form Approach to Rectangular Surface Modeling

Authors: Taweechai Nuntawisuttiwong, Natasha Dejdumrong

Abstract:

Geometric modeling plays an important role in the constructions and manufacturing of curve, surface and solid modeling. Their algorithms are critically important not only in the automobile, ship and aircraft manufacturing business, but are also absolutely necessary in a wide variety of modern applications, e.g., robotics, optimization, computer vision, data analytics and visualization. The calculation and display of geometric objects can be accomplished by these six techniques: Polynomial basis, Recursive, Iterative, Coefficient matrix, Polar form approach and Pyramidal algorithms. In this research, the coefficient matrix (simply called monomial form approach) will be used to model polynomial rectangular patches, i.e., Said-Ball, Wang-Ball, DP, Dejdumrong and NB1 surfaces. Some examples of the monomial forms for these surface modeling are illustrated in many aspects, e.g., construction, derivatives, model transformation, degree elevation and degress reduction.

Keywords: Monomial form, rectangular surfaces, CAGD curves, monomial matrix applications.

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2211 Universal Kinetic Modeling of RAFT Polymerization using Moment Equations

Authors: Mehdi Salami-Kalajahi, Pejman Ganjeh-Anzabi, Vahid Haddadi-Asl, Mohammad Najafi

Abstract:

In the following text, we show that by introducing universal kinetic scheme, the origin of rate retardation and inhibition period which observed in dithiobenzoate-mediated RAFT polymerization can be described properly. We develop our model by utilizing the method of moments, then we apply our model to different monomer/RAFT agent systems, both homo- and copolymerization. The modeling results are in an excellent agreement with experiments and imply the validity of universal kinetic scheme, not only for dithiobenzoate-mediated systems, but also for different types of monomer/RAFT agent ones.

Keywords: RAFT Polymerization, Mechanism, Kinetics, Moment Equations, Modeling.

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2210 Context Modeling and Context-Aware Service Adaptation for Pervasive Computing Systems

Authors: Moeiz Miraoui, Chakib Tadj, Chokri ben Amar

Abstract:

Devices in a pervasive computing system (PCS) are characterized by their context-awareness. It permits them to provide proactively adapted services to the user and applications. To do so, context must be well understood and modeled in an appropriate form which enhance its sharing between devices and provide a high level of abstraction. The most interesting methods for modeling context are those based on ontology however the majority of the proposed methods fail in proposing a generic ontology for context which limit their usability and keep them specific to a particular domain. The adaptation task must be done automatically and without an explicit intervention of the user. Devices of a PCS must acquire some intelligence which permits them to sense the current context and trigger the appropriate service or provide a service in a better suitable form. In this paper we will propose a generic service ontology for context modeling and a context-aware service adaptation based on a service oriented definition of context.

Keywords: Pervasive computing system, context, contextawareness, service, context modeling, ontology, adaptation, machine learning.

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2209 Building Information Modeling-Based Approach for Automatic Quantity Take-off and Cost Estimation

Authors: Lo Kar Yin, Law Ka Mei

Abstract:

Architectural, engineering, construction and operations (AECO) industry practitioners have been well adapting to the dynamic construction market from the fundamental training of its disciplines. As further triggered by the pandemic since 2019, great steps are taken in virtual environment and the best collaboration is strived with project teams without boundaries. With adoption of Building Information Modeling-based approach and qualitative analysis, this paper is to review quantity take-off (QTO) and cost estimation process through modeling techniques in liaison with suppliers, fabricators, subcontractors, contractors, designers, consultants and services providers in the construction industry value chain for automatic project cost budgeting, project cost control and cost evaluation on design options of in-situ reinforced-concrete construction and Modular Integrated Construction (MiC) at design stage, variation of works and cash flow/spending analysis at construction stage as far as practicable, with a view to sharing the findings for enhancing mutual trust and co-operation among AECO industry practitioners. It is to foster development through a common prototype of design and build project delivery method in NEC4 Engineering and Construction Contract (ECC) Options A and C.

Keywords: Building Information Modeling, cost estimation, quantity take-off, modeling techniques.

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2208 Cosastudio: A Software Architecture Modeling Tool

Authors: Adel Smeda, Adel Alti, Mourad Oussalah, Abdallah Boukerram

Abstract:

A key aspect of the design of any software system is its architecture. An architecture description provides a formal model of the architecture in terms of components and connectors and how they are composed together. COSA (Component-Object based Software Structures), is based on object-oriented modeling and component-based modeling. The model improves the reusability by increasing extensibility, evolvability, and compositionality of the software systems. This paper presents the COSA modelling tool which help architects the possibility to verify the structural coherence of a given system and to validate its semantics with COSA approach.

Keywords: Software Architecture, Architecture Description Languages, UML, Components, Connectors.

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2207 Dynamic Measurement System Modeling with Machine Learning Algorithms

Authors: Changqiao Wu, Guoqing Ding, Xin Chen

Abstract:

In this paper, ways of modeling dynamic measurement systems are discussed. Specially, for linear system with single-input single-output, it could be modeled with shallow neural network. Then, gradient based optimization algorithms are used for searching the proper coefficients. Besides, method with normal equation and second order gradient descent are proposed to accelerate the modeling process, and ways of better gradient estimation are discussed. It shows that the mathematical essence of the learning objective is maximum likelihood with noises under Gaussian distribution. For conventional gradient descent, the mini-batch learning and gradient with momentum contribute to faster convergence and enhance model ability. Lastly, experimental results proved the effectiveness of second order gradient descent algorithm, and indicated that optimization with normal equation was the most suitable for linear dynamic models.

Keywords: Dynamic system modeling, neural network, normal equation, second order gradient descent.

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2206 Evaluation of Minimization of Moment Ratio Method by Physical Modeling

Authors: Amin Eslami, Jafar Bolouri Bazaz

Abstract:

Under active stress conditions, a rigid cantilever retaining wall tends to rotate about a pivot point located within the embedded depth of the wall. For purely granular and cohesive soils, a methodology was previously reported called minimization of moment ratio to determine the location of the pivot point of rotation. The usage of this new methodology is to estimate the rotational stability safety factor. Moreover, the degree of improvement required in a backfill to get a desired safety factor can be estimated by the concept of the shear strength demand. In this article, the accuracy of this method for another type of cantilever walls called Contiguous Bored Pile (CBP) retaining wall is evaluated by using physical modeling technique. Based on observations, the results of moment ratio minimization method are in good agreement with the results of the carried out physical modeling.

Keywords: Cantilever Retaining Wall, Physical Modeling, Minimization of Moment Ratio Method, Pivot Point.

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2205 Ultrasound Mechanical Index as a Parameter Affecting of the Ability of Proliferation of Cells

Authors: Z. Hormozi Moghaddam, M. Mokhtari-Dizaji, M. Movahedin, M. E. Ravari

Abstract:

Mechanical index (MI) is used for quantifying acoustic cavitation and the relationship between acoustic pressure and the frequency. In this study, modeling of the MI was applied to provide treatment protocol and to understand the effective physical processes on reproducibility of stem cells. The acoustic pressure and MI equations are modeled and solved to estimate optimal MI for 28, 40, 150 kHz and 1 MHz frequencies. Radial and axial acoustic pressure distribution was extracted. To validate the results of the modeling, the acoustic pressure in the water and near field depth was measured by a piston hydrophone. Results of modeling and experiments show that the model is consistent well to experimental results with 0.91 and 0.90 correlation of coefficient (p<0.05) for 1 MHz and 40 kHz. Low intensity ultrasound with 0.40 MI is more effective on the proliferation rate of the spermatogonial stem cells during the seven days of culture, in contrast, high MI has a harmful effect on the spermatogonial stem cells. This model provides proper treatment planning in vitro and in vivo by estimating the cavitation phenomenon.

Keywords: Ultrasound, mechanical index, modeling, stem cell.

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2204 CFD Modeling of Reduction in NOX Emission Using HiTAC Technique

Authors: Abbas Khoshhal, Masoud Rahimi, Sayed Reza Shabanian, Ammar Abdulaziz Alsairafi

Abstract:

In the present study, the rate of NOx emission in a combustion chamber working in conventional combustion and High Temperature Air Combustion (HiTAC) system are examined using CFD modeling. The effect of peak temperature, combustion air temperature and oxygen concentration on NOx emission rate was undertaken. Results show that in a fixed oxygen concentration, increasing the preheated air temperature will increase the peak temperature and NOx emission rate. In addition, it was observed that the reduction of the oxygen concentration in the fixed preheated air temperature decreases the peak temperature and NOx emission rate. On the other hand, the results show that increase of preheated air temperature at various oxygen concentrations increases the NOx emission rate. However, the rate of increase in HiTAC conditions is quite lower than the conventional combustion. The modeling results show that the NOx emission rate in HiTAC combustion is 133% less than that of the conventional combustion.

Keywords: CFD Modeling, HiTAC, NOx, Combustion.

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2203 Real-Time Visual Simulation and Interactive Animation of Shadow Play Puppets Using OpenGL

Authors: Tan Kian Lam, Abdullah Zawawi bin Haji Talib, Mohd. Azam Osman

Abstract:

This paper describes a method of modeling to model shadow play puppet using sophisticated computer graphics techniques available in OpenGL in order to allow interactive play in real-time environment as well as producing realistic animation. This paper proposes a novel real-time method is proposed for modeling of puppet and its shadow image that allows interactive play of virtual shadow play using texture mapping and blending techniques. Special effects such as lighting and blurring effects for virtual shadow play environment are also developed. Moreover, the use of geometric transformations and hierarchical modeling facilitates interaction among the different parts of the puppet during animation. Based on the experiments and the survey that were carried out, the respondents involved are very satisfied with the outcomes of these techniques.

Keywords: Animation, blending, hierarchical modeling, interactive play, real-time, shadow play, visual simulation.

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2202 Analyzing CPFR Supporting Factors with Fuzzy Cognitive Map Approach

Authors: G. Büyüközkan , O. Feyzioglu, Z. Vardaloglu

Abstract:

Collaborative planning, forecasting and replenishment (CPFR) coordinates the various supply chain management activities including production and purchase planning, demand forecasting and inventory replenishment between supply chain trading partners. This study proposes a systematic way of analyzing CPFR supporting factors using fuzzy cognitive map (FCM) approach. FCMs have proven particularly useful for solving problems in which a number of decision variables and uncontrollable variables are causally interrelated. Hence the FCMs of CPFR are created to show the relationships between the factors that influence on effective implementation of CPFR in the supply chain.

Keywords: Collaborative planning, forecasting and replenishment, fuzzy cognitive map, information sharing, decision synchronization, incentive alignment.

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2201 Dynamic Process Monitoring of an Ammonia Synthesis Fixed-Bed Reactor

Authors: Bothinah Altaf, Gary Montague, Elaine B. Martin

Abstract:

This study involves the modeling and monitoring of an ammonia synthesis fixed-bed reactor using partial least squares (PLS) and its variants. The process exhibits complex dynamic behavior due to the presence of heat recycling and feed quench. One limitation of static PLS model in this situation is that it does not take account of the process dynamics and hence dynamic PLS was used. Although it showed, superior performance to static PLS in terms of prediction, the monitoring scheme was inappropriate hence adaptive PLS was considered. A limitation of adaptive PLS is that non-conforming observations also contribute to the model, therefore, a new adaptive approach was developed, robust adaptive dynamic PLS. This approach updates a dynamic PLS model and is robust to non-representative data. The developed methodology showed a clear improvement over existing approaches in terms of the modeling of the reactor and the detection of faults.

Keywords: Ammonia synthesis fixed-bed reactor, dynamic partial least squares modeling, recursive partial least squares, robust modeling.

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2200 Cognitive eTransformation Framework for Education Sector

Authors: A. Hol

Abstract:

21st century brought waves of business and industry eTransformations. The impact of change is also being seen in education. To identify the extent of this, scenario analysis methodology was utilised with the aim to assess business transformations across industry sectors ranging from craftsmanship, medicine, finance and manufacture to innovations and adoptions of new technologies and business models. Firstly, scenarios were drafted based on the current eTransformation models and its dimensions. Following this, eTransformation framework was utilised with the aim to derive the key eTransformation parameters, the essential characteristics that have enabled eTransformations across the sectors. Following this, identified key parameters were mapped to the transforming domain-education. The mapping assisted in deriving a cognitive eTransformation framework for education sector. The framework highlights the importance of context and the notion that education today needs not only to deliver content to students but it also needs to be able to meet the dynamically changing demands of specific student and industry groups. Furthermore, it pinpoints that for such processes to be supported, specific technology is required, so that instant, on demand and periodic feedback as well as flexible, dynamically expanding study content can be sought and received via multiple education mediums.

Keywords: Education sector, business transformation, eTransformation model, cognitive model, cognitive systems, eTransformation.

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2199 Algorithm and Software Based on Multilayer Perceptron Neural Networks for Estimating Channel Use in the Spectral Decision Stage in Cognitive Radio Networks

Authors: Danilo López, Johana Hernández, Edwin Rivas

Abstract:

The use of the Multilayer Perceptron Neural Networks (MLPNN) technique is presented to estimate the future state of use of a licensed channel by primary users (PUs); this will be useful at the spectral decision stage in cognitive radio networks (CRN) to determine approximately in which time instants of future may secondary users (SUs) opportunistically use the spectral bandwidth to send data through the primary wireless network. To validate the results, sequences of occupancy data of channel were generated by simulation. The results show that the prediction percentage is greater than 60% in some of the tests carried out.

Keywords: Cognitive radio, neural network, prediction, primary user.

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2198 Using the Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory-2 and Mini Mental State Examination-2 in Cognitive Behavioral Therapy: Case Studies

Authors: Cornelia-Eugenia Munteanu

Abstract:

From a psychological perspective, psychopathology is the area of clinical psychology that has at its core psychological assessment and psychotherapy. In day-to-day clinical practice, psychodiagnosis and psychotherapy are used independently, according to their intended purpose and their specific methods of application. The paper explores how the Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory-2 (MMPI-2) and Mini Mental State Examination-2 (MMSE-2) psychological tools contribute to enhancing the effectiveness of cognitive behavioral psychotherapy (CBT). This combined approach, psychotherapy in conjunction with assessment of personality and cognitive functions, is illustrated by two cases, a severe depressive episode with psychotic symptoms and a mixed anxiety-depressive disorder. The order in which CBT, MMPI-2, and MMSE-2 were used in the diagnostic and therapeutic process was determined by the particularities of each case. In the first case, the sequence started with psychotherapy, followed by the administration of blue form MMSE-2, MMPI-2, and red form MMSE-2. In the second case, the cognitive screening with blue form MMSE-2 led to a personality assessment using MMPI-2, followed by red form MMSE-2; reapplication of the MMPI-2 due to the invalidation of the first profile, and finally, psychotherapy. The MMPI-2 protocols gathered useful information that directed the steps of therapeutic intervention: a detailed symptom picture of potentially self-destructive thoughts and behaviors otherwise undetected during the interview. The memory loss and poor concentration were confirmed by MMSE-2 cognitive screening. This combined approach, psychotherapy with psychological assessment, aligns with the trend of adaptation of the psychological services to the everyday life of contemporary man and paves the way for deepening and developing the field.

Keywords: Assessment, cognitive behavioral psychotherapy, MMPI-2, MMSE-2, psychopathology.

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2197 Decision Tree Modeling in Emergency Logistics Planning

Authors: Yousef Abu Nahleh, Arun Kumar, Fugen Daver, Reham Al-Hindawi

Abstract:

Despite the availability of natural disaster related time series data for last 110 years, there is no forecasting tool available to humanitarian relief organizations to determine forecasts for emergency logistics planning. This study develops a forecasting tool based on identifying probability of disaster for each country in the world by using decision tree modeling. Further, the determination of aggregate forecasts leads to efficient pre-disaster planning. Based on the research findings, the relief agencies can optimize the various resources allocation in emergency logistics planning.

Keywords: Decision tree modeling, Forecasting, Humanitarian relief, emergency supply chain.

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2196 Modeling Prices of Electricity Futures at EEX

Authors: Robest Flasza, Milan Rippel, Jan Solc

Abstract:

The main aim of this paper is to develop and calibrate an econometric model for modeling prices of long term electricity futures contracts. The calibration of our model is performed on data from EEX AG allowing us to capture the specific features of German electricity market. The data sample contains several structural breaks which have to be taken into account for modeling. We model the data with an ARIMAX model which reveals high correlation between the price of electricity futures contracts and prices of LT futures contracts of fuels (namely coal, natural gas and crude oil). Besides this, also a share price index of representative electricity companies traded on Xetra, spread between 10Y and 1Y German bonds and exchange rate between EUR and USD appeared to have significant explanatory power over these futures contracts on EEX.

Keywords: electricity futures, EEX, ARIMAX, emissionallowances

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2195 E-Learning Methodology Development using Modeling

Authors: Sarma Cakula, Maija Sedleniece

Abstract:

Simulation and modeling computer programs are concerned with construction of models for analyzing different perspectives and possibilities in changing conditions environment. The paper presents theoretical justification and evaluation of qualitative e-learning development model in perspective of advancing modern technologies. There have been analyzed principles of qualitative e-learning in higher education, productivity of studying process using modern technologies, different kind of methods and future perspectives of e-learning in formal education. Theoretically grounded and practically tested model of developing e-learning methods using different technologies for different type of classroom, which can be used in professor-s decision making process to choose the most effective e-learning methods has been worked out.

Keywords: E-learning, modeling, E-learning methods development, personal knowledge management

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