Search results for: Tropical Climate

Authors: Asit K Sikary, O. P. Murty

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In this study, we have collected cases with adipocere formation, which were from the South Delhi region (average room temperature 27-390C) and autopsied at our centre. Details of the circumstances of the death, cause and time of death, surrounding environment and demographic profile of the deceased were taken into account. Total 16 cases were included in this study. Adipocere formation was predominantly present over cheeks, shoulder, breast, flanks, buttocks, and thighs. Out of 16, 11 cases were found in a dry atmosphere, 5 cases were brought from the water. There were 5 cases in which adipocere formation was seen in less than 2 days, and among them, in 1 case, as early as one day. This study showed that adipocere formation can be seen as early as 1 day in a hot and humid environment.

Keywords: Adipocere, drowning, hanging, humid environment, strangulation, subtropical climate.

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Authors: S. Esfandeh, M. Sedighizadeh

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Weather systems use enormously complex combinations of numerical tools for study and forecasting. Unfortunately, due to phenomena in the world climate, such as the greenhouse effect, classical models may become insufficient mostly because they lack adaptation. Therefore, the weather forecast problem is matched for heuristic approaches, such as Evolutionary Algorithms. Experimentation with heuristic methods like Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) algorithm can lead to the development of new insights or promising models that can be fine tuned with more focused techniques. This paper describes a PSO approach for analysis and prediction of data and provides experimental results of the aforementioned method on realworld meteorological time series.

Keywords: Weather, Climate, PSO, Prediction, Meteorological

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Authors: N. A. Samat, S. H. Mohd Imam Ma’arof

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Dengue disease is an infectious vector-borne viral disease that is commonly found in tropical and sub-tropical regions, especially in urban and semi-urban areas, around the world and including Malaysia. There is no currently available vaccine or chemotherapy for the prevention or treatment of dengue disease. Therefore prevention and treatment of the disease depend on vector surveillance and control measures. Disease risk mapping has been recognized as an important tool in the prevention and control strategies for diseases. The choice of statistical model used for relative risk estimation is important as a good model will subsequently produce a good disease risk map. Therefore, the aim of this study is to estimate the relative risk for dengue disease based initially on the most common statistic used in disease mapping called Standardized Morbidity Ratio (SMR) and one of the earliest applications of Bayesian methodology called Poisson-gamma model. This paper begins by providing a review of the SMR method, which we then apply to dengue data of Perak, Malaysia. We then fit an extension of the SMR method, which is the Poisson-gamma model. Both results are displayed and compared using graph, tables and maps. Results of the analysis shows that the latter method gives a better relative risk estimates compared with using the SMR. The Poisson-gamma model has been demonstrated can overcome the problem of SMR when there is no observed dengue cases in certain regions. However, covariate adjustment in this model is difficult and there is no possibility for allowing spatial correlation between risks in adjacent areas. The drawbacks of this model have motivated many researchers to propose other alternative methods for estimating the risk.

Keywords: Dengue disease, Disease mapping, Standardized Morbidity Ratio, Poisson-gamma model, Relative risk.

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Authors: Chakraborty Sudipta, A. R. Kambekar, Sarma Arnab

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Sea-level rise being one of the most important impacts of anthropogenic induced climate change resulting from global warming and melting of icebergs at Arctic and Antarctic, the investigations done by various researchers both on Indian Coast and elsewhere during the last decade has been reviewed in this paper. The paper aims to ascertain the propensity of consistency of different suggested methods to predict the near-accurate future sea level rise along the coast of Mumbai. Case studies at East Coast, Southern Tip and West and South West coast of India have been reviewed. Coastal Vulnerability Index of several important international places has been compared, which matched with Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change forecasts. The application of Geographic Information System mapping, use of remote sensing technology, both Multi Spectral Scanner and Thematic Mapping data from Landsat classified through Iterative Self-Organizing Data Analysis Technique for arriving at high, moderate and low Coastal Vulnerability Index at various important coastal cities have been observed. Instead of data driven, hindcast based forecast for Significant Wave Height, additional impact of sea level rise has been suggested. Efficacy and limitations of numerical methods vis-à-vis Artificial Neural Network has been assessed, importance of Root Mean Square error on numerical results is mentioned. Comparing between various computerized methods on forecast results obtained from MIKE 21 has been opined to be more reliable than Delft 3D model.

Keywords: Climate change, coastal vulnerability index, global warming, sea level rise.

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Authors: E. Oke, A. O. Ladokun, J. O. Daramola, O. M. Onagbesan

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There has been a growing interest on the effects of access to pasture on poultry health status. However, there is a paucity of data on the relative benefits of grass and legume pastures. An experiment was conducted to determine the effects of rearing systems {deep litter system (DL), deep litter with access to legumes (LP) or grass (GP) pastures} haematology and serum chemistry of ISA Brown layers. The study involved the use of two hundred and forty 12 weeks old pullets. The birds were reared until 60 weeks of age. Eighty birds were assigned to each treatment; each treatment had four replicates of 20 birds each. Blood samples (2.5 ml) were collected from the wing vein of two birds per replicate and serum chemistry and haematological parameters were determined. The results showed that there were no significant differences between treatments in all the parameters considered at 18 weeks of age. At 24 weeks old, the percentage of heterophyl (HET) in DL and LP were similar but higher than that of GP. The ratio of H:L was higher (P<0.05) in DL than those of LP and GP while LP and GP were comparable. At week 38 of age, the percentage of PCV in the birds in LP and GP were similar but the birds in DL had significantly lower level than that of GP. In the early production phase, serum total protein of the birds in LP was similar to that of GP but higher (P<0.05) than that of DL. At the peak production phase (week 38), the total protein in GP and DL were similar but significantly lower than that of LP. The albumin level in LP was greater (P<0.05) than GP but similar to that of DL. In the late production phase, the total protein in LP was significantly higher than that of DL but similar to that of GP. It was concluded that rearing chickens in either grass or legume pasture did not have deleterious effects on the health of laying chickens but improved some parameters including blood protein and HET/lymphocyte.

Keywords: Rearing systems, Stylosanthes, Cynodon serum chemistry, haematology, hen.

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Authors: Soumiya Bhattacharjee, P. K. Champati Ray, Shovan L. Chattoraj, Mrinmoy Dhara

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The entire Himalayan range is globally renowned for rainfall-induced landslides. The prime focus of the study is to determine rainfall based threshold for initiation of landslides that can be used as an important component of an early warning system for alerting stake holders. This research deals with temporal dimension of slope failures due to extreme rainfall events along the National Highway-58 from Karanprayag to Badrinath in the Garhwal Himalaya, India. Post processed 3-hourly rainfall intensity data and its corresponding duration from daily rainfall data available from Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) were used as the prime source of rainfall data. Landslide event records from Border Road Organization (BRO) and some ancillary landslide inventory data for 2013 and 2014 have been used to determine Intensity Duration (ID) based rainfall threshold. The derived governing threshold equation, I= 4.738D^-0.025, has been considered for prediction of landslides of the study region. This equation was validated with an accuracy of 70% landslides during August and September 2014. The derived equation was considered for further prediction of landslides of the study region. From the obtained results and validation, it can be inferred that this equation can be used for initiation of landslides in the study area to work as a part of an early warning system. Results can significantly improve with ground based rainfall estimates and better database on landslide records. Thus, the study has demonstrated a very low cost method to get first-hand information on possibility of impending landslide in any region, thereby providing alert and better preparedness for landslide disaster mitigation.

Keywords: Landslide, intensity-duration, rainfall threshold, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission, slope, inventory, early warning system.

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Authors: Md. Sharif Imam Ibne Amir, Mohammad Masud Kamal khan, Mohammad Golam Rasul, Raj H Sharma, Fatema Akram

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Future flood can be predicted using the probable maximum flood (PMF). PMF is calculated using the historical discharge or rainfall data considering the other climatic parameters remaining stationary. However climate is changing globally and the key climatic variables are temperature, evaporation, rainfall and sea level rise are likely to change. To develop scenarios to a basin or catchment scale these important climatic variables should be considered. Nowadays scenario based on climatic variables is more suitable than PMF. Six scenarios were developed for a large Fitzroy basin and presented in this paper.

Keywords: Climate change, rainfall, potential evaporation, scenario, sea level rise (SLR), sub-catchment.

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Authors: Naci Büyükkaracığan

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Hydroclimatic observation values ​​are used in the planning of the project of water resources. Climate variables are the first of the values ​​used in planning projects. At the same time, the climate system is a complex and interactive system involving the atmosphere, land surfaces, snow and bubbles, the oceans and other water structures. The amount and distribution of precipitation, which is an important climate parameter, is a limiting environmental factor for dispersed living things. Trend analysis is applied to the detection of the presence of a pattern or trend in the data set. Many trends work in different parts of the world are usually made for the determination of climate change. The detection and attribution of past trends and variability in climatic variables is essential for explaining potential future alteration resulting from anthropogenic activities. Parametric and non-parametric tests are used for determining the trends in climatic variables. In this study, trend tests were applied to annual total precipitation data obtained in period of 1972 and 2012, in the Konya Basin. Non-parametric trend tests, (Sen’s T, Spearman’s Rho, Mann-Kendal, Sen’s T trend, Wald-Wolfowitz) and parametric test (mean square) were applied to annual total precipitations of 15 stations for trend analysis. The linear slopes (change per unit time) of trends are calculated by using a non-parametric estimator developed by Sen. The beginning of trends is determined by using the Mann-Kendall rank correlation test. In addition, homogeneities in precipitation trends are tested by using a method developed by Van Belle and Hughes. As a result of tests, negative linear slopes were found in annual total precipitations in Konya.

Keywords: Trend analysis, precipitation, hydroclimatology, Konya, Turkey.

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Authors: A. A. Azemati, H. Hosseini, B. Shirkavand Hadavand

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By using an adequate thermal barrier coating in buildings the energy saving will be happened. In this study, a range of wall paints with different absorption coefficient in different climates has been investigated. In order to study these effects, heating and cooling loads of a common building with different ordinary paints and paint with mineral coating have been calculated. The effect of building paint in different climatic condition was studied and comparison was done between ordinary paints and paint with mineral insulators in temperate climate to obtain optimized energy consumption. The results have been shown that coatings with inorganic micro particles as insulation reduce the energy consumption of buildings around 14%.

Keywords: Insulator, coating, climate, energy consumption.

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Authors: P. Paengkoum, A. Lukkananukool, S. Bureenok, Y. Kawamoto, Y. Imura, J. Mitchaothai, S. Paengkoum, S. Traiyakun

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The objective of this study was to investigate the effect of tropical forage source and feeding system on fatty acid composition and antioxidant activity in meat goats. Twenty male crossbred goats (Boer x Saanen), were included in the current study and the study design was assigned to be a 2 x 3 factorial in completely randomized design. All goats were slaughtered after 120 days of experimental period. Dietary tropical roughage sources were grass (Mulata II) and legume (Verano stylo). Both types of roughage were offered to the experimental meat goat as 3 feeding regimes; cut-and-carry, silage and grazing. All goats were fed basal concentrate diet at 1.5% of body weight, and they were fed ad libitum the roughages.Chemical composition, fatty acid profile and antioxidation activity of dietary treatments in all feeding system and longissimus dorsi (LD) muscles in all groups were quantified. The results have shown that the fat content in both types of studied roughage sources ranged from about 2.0% to 4.0% of DM and the fatty acid composition of those was mainly C16:0, C18:2n6 and C18:3n3, with less proportion for C18:1n9. The free-radical scavenging activity of the Mulato II was lower than that of the Verano stylo. The free-radical scavenging activity of the Mulato II was lower than that of the Verano stylo. For LD muscle, the fatty acid composition was mainly C16:0, C18:0 and C18:1n9, with less proportion for C18:2n6. The LD muscle of the goats fed with Mulato II and the Verano stylo by grazing had highest free-radical scavenging activity, compared to those fed with cut-and-carry and silage regime, although there were rather high unsaturated fatty acids in LD muscle. Thus, feeding the meat goats with the Mulato II and Verano stylo by grazing would be beneficial effect for consumers to intake high unsaturated fatty acids and lower risk for oxidation from goat meat.

Keywords: Feeding system, goat, CLA, meat.

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Authors: Md. Royhanur Islam, Thomas Cansse, Md. Sahidul Islam, Atiqur Rahman Sunny

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The geographical location of Bangladesh makes it one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change. Climate-induced phenomena mainly affect the south-central region of Bangladesh (Laxmipur district) where they have begun to occur more frequently. The aim of the study was to identify the hydro-climatic factors that lead to weather-related disasters in the coastal areas and analyse the consequences of these factors on coastal livelihoods, with possible adaptation options using participatory rural appraisal (PRA) tools. The present study showed several disasters such as land erosion, depressions and cyclones, coastal flooding, storm surge, and precipitation. The frequency of these disasters is of a noticeable rate. Surveys have also discovered that land erosion is ongoing. Tidal water is being introduced directly into the mainland, and as a result of the salt intrusion, production capacity is declining. The coastal belt is an important area for fishing activities, but due to changed fishing times and a lack of Alternative Income Generating Activities (AIGAs), people have been forced to search for alternative livelihood options by taking both short-term and long-term adaptation options. Therefore, in order to increase awareness and minimize the losses, vulnerable communities must be fully incorporated into disaster response strategies. The government as well as national and international donor organizations should come forward and resolve the present situation of these vulnerable groups since otherwise, they will have to endure endless and miserable suffering due to the effects of climate change ahead in their lives.

Keywords: Adaptation, community, fishery development, livelihood.

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Authors: Andreas Hammer

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Six peculiar architecture designs from the Frankfurt University will be discussed within this paper and their future potential of the adaptable and solar thin-film sheets implemented facades will be shown acting and reacting on climate/solar changes of their specific sites. The different aspects, as well as limitations with regard to technical and functional restrictions, will be named.  The design process for a “multi-purpose building”, a “high-rise building refurbishment” and a “biker’s lodge” on the river Rheine valley, has been critically outlined and developed step by step from an international studentship towards an overall energy strategy, that firstly had to push the design to a plus-energy building and secondly had to incorporate bionic aspects into the building skins design. Both main parameters needed to be reviewed and refined during the whole design process. Various basic bionic approaches have been given [e.g. solar ivy ^TM, flectofin ^TM or hygroskin ^TM, which were to experiment with, regarding the use of bendable photovoltaic thin film elements being parts of a hybrid, kinetic façade system.

Keywords: Energy-strategy, photovoltaic in building skins, bionic and bioclimatic design, plus-energy-buildings, solar gain, the harvesting façade, sustainable building concept, high-efficiency building skin, climate adaptive Building Shells (CABS).

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Authors: Helena Vomackova

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This contribution examines the relationship between the family environment and the level of young pupils’ scholastic success. It comments on the partial results of a research probe carried out in the year 2012 on a sample of 412 Czech Republic primary school pupils of the fourth, fifth and sixths forms within the Project IGA 43 201 15 0004 01. The key links of this project were monitored in relation to the highest education level achieved by the learners´ parents, as well as to the type of family it is (in particular its ability to function), to component factors specific to the family climate (their willingness to share information, communication, parental control) and, finally, to the number of children in the family as an important socialization constituent.

Keywords: Family environment factors, scholastic success, parents’ education, family type, family climate.

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Authors: Kenneth A. Ibe, Justina I. Mbonu, Godgift K. Umukoro

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The effects of wood ash from five common tropical woods on the ignition point of four common tropical woods in Nigeria were investigated. The ash and moisture contents of the wood sawdust from Mahogany (Khaya ivorensis), Opepe (Sarcocephalus latifolius), Abura (Mitragyna ciliata), Rubber (Heavea brasilensis) and Poroporo (Sorghum bicolour) used, were determined using a furnace (Vecstar furnaces, model ECF2, serial no. f3077) and oven (Genlab laboratory oven, model MINO/040) respectively. The metal contents of the five wood sawdust ash samples were determined using a Perkin Elmer optima 3000 dv atomic absorption spectrometer while the ignition points were determined using Vecstar furnaces model ECF2. Poroporo had the highest ash content, 2.263g while rubber had the least, 0.710g. The results for the moisture content range from 2.971g to 0.903g. Magnesium metal had the highest concentration of all the metals, in all the wood ash samples; with mahogany ash having the highest concentration, 9.196ppm while rubber ash had the least concentration of magnesium metal, 2.196 ppm. The ignition point results showed that the wood ashes from mahogany and opepe increased the ignition points of the test wood samples, Danta (Nesogordonia papaverifera), Ekpaya, Akomu (Pycnanthus angolensis) and Oleku when coated on them while the ashes from poroporo, rubber and abura decreased the ignition points of the test wood samples when coated on them. However, Opepe saw dust ash decreased the ignition point in one of the test wood samples, suggesting that the metal content of the test wood sample was more than that of the Opepe saw dust ash. Therefore, Mahogany and Opepe saw dust ashes could be used in the surface treatment of wood to enhance their fire resistance or retardancy. However, the caution to be exercised in this application is that the metal content of the test wood samples should be evaluated as well.

Keywords: Ash, fire, ignition point, retardant, wood saw dust.

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Authors: Lingjiang Huang, Fangfang Liu

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Vernacular building is considered as sustainable in energy consumption and environment and its thermal performance is more and more concerned by researchers. This paper investigates the thermal property of the vernacular building in Lhasa by theoretical analysis on the aspects of building form, envelope and materials etc. The values of thermal resistance and thermal capacity of the envelope are calculated and compared with the current China building code and modern building case. And it is concluded that Lhasa vernacular building meets the current China building code of thermal standards and have better performance in some aspects, which is achieved by various passive means with close response to local climate conditions.

Keywords: Climate, Vernacular Building, Thermal Property, Passive Means

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Authors: Miguel A. Campano, Jesica Fernández-Agüera, Samuel Domínguez-Amarillo, Juan J. Sendra

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An analysis of the air tightness level is performed on a representative sample of school classrooms in Southern Spain, which allows knowing the infiltration level of these classrooms, mainly through its envelope, which can affect both energy demand and occupant's thermal comfort. By using a pressurization/depressurization equipment (Blower-Door test), a characterization of 45 multipurpose classrooms have been performed in nine non-university educational institutions of the main climate zones of Southern Spain. In spite of having two doors and a high ratio between glass surface and outer surface, it is possible to see in these classrooms that there is an adequate level of airtightness, since all the n50 values obtained are lower than 9.0 ACH, with an average value around 7.0 ACH.

Keywords: Air infiltration, energy efficiency, school buildings, thermal comfort, indoor air quality, ventilation.

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Authors: Kuntal Thakkar, Chaouki Ghenai, Ahmed Hachicha

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An integrated modeling approach was used in this study for energy planning and climate change mitigation assessment. The main objective of this study was to develop various green-house gas (GHG) mitigations scenarios in the energy demand and supply sectors for the state of Florida. The Long range energy alternative planning (LEAP) model was used in this study to examine the energy alternative and GHG emissions reduction scenarios for short and long term (2010-2050). One of the energy analysis and GHG mitigation scenarios was developed by taking into account the available renewable energy resources potential for power generation in the state of Florida. This will help to compare and analyze the GHG reduction measure against “Business As Usual” and ‘State of Florida Policy” scenarios. Two master scenarios: “Electrification” and “Energy efficiency and Lifestyle” were developed through combination of various mitigation scenarios: technological changes and energy efficiency and conservation. The results show a net reduction of the energy demand and GHG emissions by adopting these two energy scenarios compared to the business as usual.

Keywords: Integrated modeling, energy planning, climate change mitigation assessment, greenhouse gas emissions, renewable energy, energy efficiency.

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Authors: Madhuri Bhavsar, Anupam K Singh, Shrikant Pradhan

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Long term rainfall analysis and prediction is a challenging task especially in the modern world where the impact of global warming is creating complications in environmental issues. These factors which are data intensive require high performance computational modeling for accurate prediction. This research paper describes a prototype which is designed and developed on grid environment using a number of coupled software infrastructural building blocks. This grid enabled system provides the demanding computational power, efficiency, resources, user-friendly interface, secured job submission and high throughput. The results obtained using sequential execution and grid enabled execution shows that computational performance has enhanced among 36% to 75%, for decade of climate parameters. Large variation in performance can be attributed to varying degree of computational resources available for job execution. Grid Computing enables the dynamic runtime selection, sharing and aggregation of distributed and autonomous resources which plays an important role not only in business, but also in scientific implications and social surroundings. This research paper attempts to explore the grid enabled computing capabilities on weather indices from HOAPS data for climate impact modeling and change detection.

Keywords: Climate model, Computational Grid, GridApplication, Heterogeneous Grid

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Authors: Vinko Lešić, Mario Vašak, Anita Martinčević, Marko Gulin, Antonio Starčić, Hrvoje Novak

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With 40% of total world energy consumption, building systems are developing into technically complex large energy consumers suitable for application of sophisticated power management approaches to largely increase the energy efficiency and even make them active energy market participants. Centralized control system of building heating and cooling managed by economically-optimal model predictive control shows promising results with estimated 30% of energy efficiency increase. The research is focused on implementation of such a method on a case study performed on two floors of our faculty building with corresponding sensors wireless data acquisition, remote heating/cooling units and central climate controller. Building walls are mathematically modeled with corresponding material types, surface shapes and sizes. Models are then exploited to predict thermal characteristics and changes in different building zones. Exterior influences such as environmental conditions and weather forecast, people behavior and comfort demands are all taken into account for deriving price-optimal climate control. Finally, a DC microgrid with photovoltaics, wind turbine, supercapacitor, batteries and fuel cell stacks is added to make the building a unit capable of active participation in a price-varying energy market. Computational burden of applying model predictive control on such a complex system is relaxed through a hierarchical decomposition of the microgrid and climate control, where the former is designed as higher hierarchical level with pre-calculated price-optimal power flows control, and latter is designed as lower level control responsible to ensure thermal comfort and exploit the optimal supply conditions enabled by microgrid energy flows management. Such an approach is expected to enable the inclusion of more complex building subsystems into consideration in order to further increase the energy efficiency.

Keywords: Energy-efficient buildings, Hierarchical model predictive control, Microgrid power flow optimization, Price-optimal building climate control.

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Authors: Mykola S. Shestavin

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A strategy for the creation of a Virtual Interactive Platform (or Networking Platform) to combine the four web-baseness of expert systems on the transfer and diffusion of low-carbon technologies. It used the concept of “Open Innovation” and “Triple Helix” with regard to theories of “Green Growth” and “Carbon Footprint”. Interpreters expert systems operate on the basis of models of the “Predator-Prey” for the process of transfer and diffusion of technologies, taking into account the features caused by the need to mitigate the effects of climate change.

Keywords: Climate Change, Expert Systems, Low-Carbon Technology, Open Innovation, Virtual Interactive Platform.

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Authors: Evan Hajani, Ataur Rahman, Khaled Haddad

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Climate change will affect the hydrological cycle in many different ways such as increase in evaporation and rainfalls. There have been growing interests among researchers to identify the nature of trends in historical rainfall data in many different parts of the world. This paper examines the trends in annual maximum rainfall data from 30 stations in New South Wales, Australia by using two non-parametric tests, Mann-Kendall (MK) and Spearman’s Rho (SR). Rainfall data were analyzed for fifteen different durations ranging from 6 min to 3 days. It is found that the sub-hourly durations (6, 12, 18, 24, 30 and 48 minutes) show statistically significant positive (upward) trends whereas longer duration (subdaily and daily) events generally show a statistically significant negative (downward) trend. It is also found that the MK test and SR test provide notably different results for some rainfall event durations considered in this study. Since shorter duration sub-hourly rainfall events show positive trends at many stations, the design rainfall data based on stationary frequency analysis for these durations need to be adjusted to account for the impact of climate change. These shorter durations are more relevant to many urban development projects based on smaller catchments having a much shorter response time.

Keywords: Climate change, Mann-Kendall test, Spearman’s Rho test, trends, design rainfall.

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Authors: Mohd. Noor Md. Sap, A. Majid Awan

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Intelligent systems based on machine learning techniques, such as classification, clustering, are gaining wide spread popularity in real world applications. This paper presents work on developing a software system for predicting crop yield, for example oil-palm yield, from climate and plantation data. At the core of our system is a method for unsupervised partitioning of data for finding spatio-temporal patterns in climate data using kernel methods which offer strength to deal with complex data. This work gets inspiration from the notion that a non-linear data transformation into some high dimensional feature space increases the possibility of linear separability of the patterns in the transformed space. Therefore, it simplifies exploration of the associated structure in the data. Kernel methods implicitly perform a non-linear mapping of the input data into a high dimensional feature space by replacing the inner products with an appropriate positive definite function. In this paper we present a robust weighted kernel k-means algorithm incorporating spatial constraints for clustering the data. The proposed algorithm can effectively handle noise, outliers and auto-correlation in the spatial data, for effective and efficient data analysis by exploring patterns and structures in the data, and thus can be used for predicting oil-palm yield by analyzing various factors affecting the yield.

Keywords: Pattern analysis, clustering, kernel methods, spatial data, crop yield

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Authors: Anastasia K. Eleftheriadou, Athanasios Sfetsos, Nikolaos Gounaris

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The current paper presents an extensive bottom-up framework for assessing building sector-specific vulnerability to climate change: energy supply and demand. The research focuses on the application of downscaled seasonal models for estimating energy performance of buildings in Greece. The ARW-WRF model has been set-up and suitably parameterized to produce downscaled climatological fields for Greece, forced by the output of the CFSv2 model. The outer domain, D01/Europe, included 345 x 345 cells of horizontal resolution 20 x 20 km2 and the inner domain, D02/Greece, comprised 180 x 180 cells of 5 x 5 km2 horizontal resolution. The model run has been setup for a period with a forecast horizon of 6 months, storing outputs on a six hourly basis.

Keywords: Urban environment, vulnerability, climate change, energy performance, seasonal forecast models.

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Authors: Yu-Chen Lin, Tzong-Yeang Lee, Hung-Chih Shih

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The development of sustainable utilization water resources is crucial. The ecological environment and water resources systems form the foundation of the existence and development of the social economy. The urban ecological support system depends on these resources as well. This research studies the vulnerability, criticality, and risk of climate change on water supply and demand in the main administrative district of the Taijiang Area (Tainan City). Based on the two situations set in this paper and various factors (indexes), this research adopts two kinds of weights (equal and AHP) to conduct the calculation and establish the water supply and demand risk map for the target year 2039. According to the risk analysis result, which is based on equal weight, only one district belongs to a high-grade district (Grade 4). Based on the AHP weight, 16 districts belong to a high-grade or higher-grade district (Grades 4 and 5), and from among them, two districts belong to the highest grade (Grade 5). These results show that the risk level of water supply and demand in cities is higher than that in towns. The government generally gives more attention to the adjustment strategy in the “cities." However, it should also provide proper adjustment strategies for the “towns" to be able to cope with the risks of water supply and demand.

Keywords: Climate change, risk, vulnerability, water supply and demand.

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Authors: Mst. Nilufa Sultana, Shatirah Akib, Muhammad Aqeel Ashraf, Mohamed Roseli Zainal Abidin

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Most people today are aware that global climate change is not just a scientific theory but also a fact with worldwide consequences. Global climate change is due to rapid urbanization, industrialization, high population growth and current vulnerability of the climatic condition. Water is becoming scarce as a result of global climate change. To mitigate the problem arising due to global climate change and its drought effect, harvesting rainwater from green roofs, an environmentally-friendly and versatile technology, is becoming one of the best assessment criteria and gaining attention in Malaysia. This paper addresses the sustainability of green roofs and examines the quality of water harvested from green roofs in comparison to rainwater. The factors that affect the quality of such water, taking into account, for example, roofing materials, climatic conditions, the frequency of rainfall frequency and the first flush. A green roof was installed on the Humid Tropic Centre (HTC) is a place of the study on monitoring program for urban Stormwater Management Manual for Malaysia (MSMA), Eco-Hydrological Project in Kuala Lumpur, and the rainwater was harvested and evaluated on the basis of four parameters i.e., conductivity, dissolved oxygen (DO), pH and temperature. These parameters were found to fall between Class I and Class III of the Interim National Water Quality Standards (INWQS) and the Water Quality Index (WQI). Some preliminary treatment such as disinfection and filtration could likely to improve the value of these parameters to class I. This review paper clearly indicates that there is a need for more research to address other microbiological and chemical quality parameters to ensure that the harvested water is suitable for use potable water for domestic purposes. The change in all physical, chemical and microbiological parameters with respect to storage time will be a major focus of future studies in this field.

Keywords: Green roofs, INWQS, MSMA-SME, Rainwater harvesting.

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Authors: Sujana Dhar, Asis Mazumdar

Abstract:

The effects of global warming on India vary from the submergence of low-lying islands and coastal lands to the melting of glaciers in the Indian Himalayas, threatening the volumetric flow rate of many of the most important rivers of India and South Asia. In India, such effects are projected to impact millions of lives. As a result of ongoing climate change, the climate of India has become increasingly volatile over the past several decades; this trend is expected to continue. Climate change is one of the most important global environmental challenges, with implications for food production, water supply, health, energy, etc. Addressing climate change requires a good scientific understanding as well as coordinated action at national and global level. The climate change issue is part of the larger challenge of sustainable development. As a result, climate policies can be more effective when consistently embedded within broader strategies designed to make national and regional development paths more sustainable. The impact of climate variability and change, climate policy responses, and associated socio-economic development will affect the ability of countries to achieve sustainable development goals. A very well calibrated Soil and Water Assessment Tool (R2 = 0.9968, NSE = 0.91) was exercised over the Khatra sub basin of the Kangsabati River watershed in Bankura district of West Bengal, India, in order to evaluate projected parameters for agricultural activities. Evapotranspiration, Transmission Losses, Potential Evapotranspiration and Lateral Flow to reach are evaluated from the years 2041-2050 in order to generate a picture for sustainable development of the river basin and its inhabitants. India has a significant stake in scientific advancement as well as an international understanding to promote mitigation and adaptation. This requires improved scientific understanding, capacity building, networking and broad consultation processes. This paper is a commitment towards the planning, management and development of the water resources of the Kangsabati River by presenting detailed future scenarios of the Kangsabati river basin, Khatra sub basin, over the mentioned time period. India-s economy and societal infrastructures are finely tuned to the remarkable stability of the Indian monsoon, with the consequence that vulnerability to small changes in monsoon rainfall is very high. In 2002 the monsoon rains failed during July, causing profound loss of agricultural production with a drop of over 3% in India-s GDP. Neither the prolonged break in the monsoon nor the seasonal rainfall deficit was predicted. While the general features of monsoon variability and change are fairly well-documented, the causal mechanisms and the role of regional ecosystems in modulating the changes are still not clear. Current climate models are very poor at modelling the Asian monsoon: this is a challenging and critical region where the ocean, atmosphere, land surface and mountains all interact. The impact of climate change on regional ecosystems is likewise unknown. The potential for the monsoon to become more volatile has major implications for India itself and for economies worldwide. Knowledge of future variability of the monsoon system, particularly in the context of global climate change, is of great concern for regional water and food security. The major findings of this paper were that of all the chosen projected parameters, transmission losses, soil water content, potential evapotranspiration, evapotranspiration and lateral flow to reach, display an increasing trend over the time period of years 2041- 2050.

Keywords: Change, future water availability scenario, modeling, SWAT, global warming, sustainability.

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Authors: Monday O. Ale, Adebukola A. Akintade, Olasunbo O. Orungbemi

Abstract:

Fermentation as an important operation in the processing of cocoa beans is now affected by the recent climate change across the globe. The major requirement for effective fermentation is the ability of the material used to retain sufficient heat for the required microbial activities. Apart from the effects of climate on the rate of heat retention, the materials used for fermentation plays an important role. Most Farmers still restrict fermentation activities to the use of traditional methods. Improving on cocoa fermentation in this era of climate change makes it necessary to work on other materials that can be suitable for cocoa fermentation. Therefore, the objective of this study was to determine the effects of fermentation techniques on the quality of cocoa beans. The materials used in this fermentation research were heap-leaves (traditional), stainless steel, plastic tin, plastic basket and wooden box. The period of fermentation varies from zero days to 10 days. Physical and chemical tests were carried out for variables in quality determination in the samples. The weight per bean varied from 1.0-1.2 g after drying across the samples and the major color of the dry beans observed was brown except with the samples from stainless steel. The moisture content varied from 5.5-7%. The mineral content and the heavy metals decreased with increase in the fermentation period. A wooden box can conclusively be used as an alternative to heap-leaves as there was no significant difference in the physical features of the samples fermented with the two methods. The use of a wooden box as an alternative for cocoa fermentation is therefore recommended for cocoa farmers.

Keywords: Effects, fermentation, fermentation materials, period, quality.

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Authors: Md. Khademul Islam Molla, Akimasa Sumi, M. Sayedur Rahman

Abstract:

The empirical mode decomposition (EMD) represents any time series into a finite set of basis functions. The bases are termed as intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) which are mutually orthogonal containing minimum amount of cross-information. The EMD successively extracts the IMFs with the highest local frequencies in a recursive way, which yields effectively a set low-pass filters based entirely on the properties exhibited by the data. In this paper, EMD is applied to explore the properties of the multi-year air temperature and to observe its effects on climate change under global warming. This method decomposes the original time-series into intrinsic time scale. It is capable of analyzing nonlinear, non-stationary climatic time series that cause problems to many linear statistical methods and their users. The analysis results show that the mode of EMD presents seasonal variability. The most of the IMFs have normal distribution and the energy density distribution of the IMFs satisfies Chi-square distribution. The IMFs are more effective in isolating physical processes of various time-scales and also statistically significant. The analysis results also show that the EMD method provides a good job to find many characteristics on inter annual climate. The results suggest that climate fluctuations of every single element such as temperature are the results of variations in the global atmospheric circulation.

Keywords: Empirical mode decomposition, instantaneous frequency, Hilbert spectrum, Chi-square distribution, anthropogenic impact.

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Authors: Nuraini Yusoff, Harun Budin, Salemah Ismail

Abstract:

A climate dependent model is proposed to simulate the population of Aedes aegypti mosquito. In developing the model, average temperature of Shah Alam, Malaysia was used to determine the development rate of each stage of the life cycle of mosquito. Rainfall dependent function was proposed to simulate the hatching rate of the eggs under several assumptions. The proposed transition matrix was obtained and used to simulate the population of eggs, larvae, pupae and adults mosquito. It was found that the peak of mosquito abundance comes during a relatively dry period following a heavy rainfall. In addition, lag time between the peaks of mosquito abundance and dengue fever cases in Shah Alam was estimated.

Keywords: simulation, Aedes aegypti, Lefkovitch matrix, rainfall dependent model, Shah Alam

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Authors: Rujira Kongnuy

Abstract:

Leptospirosis is recognized as an important zoonosis in tropical regions well as an important animal disease with substantial loss in production. In this study, the model for the transmission of the Leptospirosis disease to human population are discussed. Model is described the vector population dynamics and the Leptospirosis transmission to the human population are discussed. Local analysis of equilibria are given. We confirm the results by using numerical results.

Keywords: Eigenvalues, Leptospirosis, Local Stability, Numerical Result

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