Assessment of the Vulnerability and Risk of Climate Change on Water Supply and Demand in Taijiang Area

Authors: Yu-Chen Lin, Tzong-Yeang Lee, Hung-Chih Shih

Abstract:

The development of sustainable utilization water resources is crucial. The ecological environment and water resources systems form the foundation of the existence and development of the social economy. The urban ecological support system depends on these resources as well. This research studies the vulnerability, criticality, and risk of climate change on water supply and demand in the main administrative district of the Taijiang Area (Tainan City). Based on the two situations set in this paper and various factors (indexes), this research adopts two kinds of weights (equal and AHP) to conduct the calculation and establish the water supply and demand risk map for the target year 2039. According to the risk analysis result, which is based on equal weight, only one district belongs to a high-grade district (Grade 4). Based on the AHP weight, 16 districts belong to a high-grade or higher-grade district (Grades 4 and 5), and from among them, two districts belong to the highest grade (Grade 5). These results show that the risk level of water supply and demand in cities is higher than that in towns. The government generally gives more attention to the adjustment strategy in the “cities." However, it should also provide proper adjustment strategies for the “towns" to be able to cope with the risks of water supply and demand.

Keywords: Climate change, risk, vulnerability, water supply and demand.

Digital Object Identifier (DOI): doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1330733

References:

[1] UNDP (United Nations Development Programme), Reducing Disaster Risk: A Challenge for Development, New York, 2004.
[2] UNEP (United Nations Environment Programme), 2001 Annual Evaluation Report, 2002.
[3] D.-M. Jin, J.-Q. Zhang, and J.-S. Han, "Risk assessment system and model research on urban draught and water shortage in Jilin province," Journal of Natural Disaster, 14(6), pp. 100-104, 2005. (in Chinese)
[4] S.-C. Lin and T.-Y. Tang, "Factor assessment of the environmental impact for Tainan technology industry area in Taiwan," in Ecosystems and Sustainable Development, Volume I, edited by E. Tiezzi, C. A. Brebbia and J. L. Uso, WIT Press, Boston, pp. 219-229, 2003.
[5] UNDRO, Natural Disasters and Vulnerability Analysis, Report of Experts Group Meeting, UNDRO, Geneva, 1980.
[6] NCDR (National Science and Technology Center for Disaster Reduction), Introduction to Basic concept of Disaster Risk Assessment Technology. http://ncdr.nat.gov.tw/, 2010. (in Chinese)
[7] S. L. Cutter, "Vulnerability to environmental hazards, progress in human," Geography, 20(4), pp. 529-539, 1996.
[8] IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), "Climate change 2001: impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability," edited by J. J. McCarthy, O. F. Canziani, N. A. Leary, D. J. Dokken, and K. S. White, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2001.
[9] G.-P. Tang, "New advances on drought risk assessment and its prospects," Journal of Safety and Environment, 4(2), pp. 79-82, 2000. (in Chinese)
[10] WRA, MOEA (Water Resources Agency, Ministry of Economic Affairs), Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Flood and Drought Disasters (2/2), NCKU Research and Development Foundation, 2011. (in Chinese)
[11] X.-F. Kong, F.-T. Lin, and W.-X. Huang, Taiwan Urban and Rural Development. National Open University, Taipei County, 2003. (in Chinese)