Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 31515
Simulation of Population Dynamics of Aedes aegypti using Climate Dependent Model

Authors: Nuraini Yusoff, Harun Budin, Salemah Ismail


A climate dependent model is proposed to simulate the population of Aedes aegypti mosquito. In developing the model, average temperature of Shah Alam, Malaysia was used to determine the development rate of each stage of the life cycle of mosquito. Rainfall dependent function was proposed to simulate the hatching rate of the eggs under several assumptions. The proposed transition matrix was obtained and used to simulate the population of eggs, larvae, pupae and adults mosquito. It was found that the peak of mosquito abundance comes during a relatively dry period following a heavy rainfall. In addition, lag time between the peaks of mosquito abundance and dengue fever cases in Shah Alam was estimated.

Keywords: simulation, Aedes aegypti, Lefkovitch matrix, rainfall dependent model, Shah Alam

Digital Object Identifier (DOI):

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2199


[1] D.A. Focks, et al., "Dynamic Life Table Model for Aedes aegpti (Diptera: Culicidae): Analysis of the Literature and Model Development," Journal of Medical Entomology, vol. 30, no. 6, pp. 1003-1017, 1993.
[2] M.Otero, H.G. Solari and N. Schweigmann, "A stochastic population dynamics model for Aedes Aegypti: Formulation and Application to a city with temperature climate", Bulletin of Mathematical Biology, vol. 68, pp. 1945-1974, 2006.
[3] K.H. Tan, et al., "Modelling Mosquito Population with Temperature Effects," Proc. of International Conference on Environmental Research and Technology, Penang, Malaysia, 2008, pp. 536-540.
[4] P.I. Ndiaye, et al., "Rainfall triggered dynamics of Aedes mosquito aggressiveness," Journal of Theoretical Biology, vol. 243, pp. 222-229, 2006.
[5] B. Schaeffer, B. Mondet and S. Touzeau, "Using a climate-dependent model to predict mosquito abundance: Application to Aedes (Stegomyia) africanus and Aedes (Diceromyia) furcifer (Diptera:Culicidae)," Infection, Genetics and Evolution, Vol. 8, pp. 422- 432, 2008.
[6] K.L. Gage, et al., "Climate and Vectorborne Diseases," American Journal of Preventive Medicine, vol. 35, no. 5, pp. 436-450, 2008.
[7] P. Wu, et al., "Weather as an effective predictor for occurrence of dengue fever in Taiwan," Acta Tropica, vol. 103, pp. 50-57, 2007.
[8] P. Wu, et al., "Higher temperature and urbanization affect the spatial patterns of dengue fever transmission in subtropical Taiwan,", Science of the Total Environment, vol. 407, pp. 2224-2233, 2009.
[9] K.V. Schreiber, "An investigation of relationships between climate and dengue using a water budgeting technique," International Journal of of Biometeorology, vol. 45, pp. 81-89, 2001.
[10] N. Bacaer, "Approximation of the Basic Reproduction Number R0 for Vector-Borne Diseases with a Periodic Vector Population,", Bulletin of Mathematical Biology, vol. 69, pp. 1067-1091, 2007.
[11] S. Altizer, et al., "Seasonality and the Dynamics of infectious disease," Ecology Letters, vol. 9, pp. 467-484, 2006.
[12] Division of Vector Borne and Infectious Disease. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. CDC-Mosquitoes' main Aquatic Habitats - Dengue.
[Online] September 10, 2009.
[Cited: November 29, 2011.]
[13] C.J.M. Koenraadt, et al., "Spatial and Temporal Patterns in Pupal and Adult Productions of the Dengue Fever Vector Aedes aegypti in Kamphaeng Phet, Thailand," American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, vol. 79(2), pp. 230-238, 2008.
[14] H. Caswell, Matrix Population Models: Construction, Analysis and Interpretation, Second Edition. Sunderland : Sinauer Associates, Inc., 2001.
[15] J. Boardman, et al., Using Population Models in the Teaching of Eigenvalues. Piscataway : Center for Discrete Mathematics & Theoretical Computer Science, Rutgers University, 2007.
[16] N. Yusoff, H. Budin, and S. Ismail, "Stage-structured population dynamics of Aedes aegypti," International Journal of Modern Physics: Conference Series, to be published.
[17] M.N. Burattini, et al., "Modelling the control strategies against dengue in Singapore" Epidemiology and Infectious Disease, vol. 136, pp. 309- 319 2008.
[18] C. Koenraadt and L. Harrington, "Flushing Effect of Rain on Container- Inhabiting Mosquitoes Aedes aegypti and Culex pipiens (Diptera:Culicidae)," Journal of Medical Entomology, vol. 45, no. 1, pp. 28-35, 2008.
[19] F.A.B. Coutinho, et al., "An approximate threshold condition for nonautonomous system: An application to a vector-borne infection," Mathematiics and Computers in Simulation, vol. 70, pp. 149-158, 2005.