Search results for: Prediction methods

Authors: Karim Hamidi Machekposhti, Hossein Sedghi, Abdolrasoul Telvari, Hossein Babazadeh

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Rainfall and runoff phenomenon is a chaotic and complex outcome of nature which requires sophisticated modelling and simulation methods for explanation and use. Time Series modelling allows runoff data analysis and can be used as forecasting tool. In the paper attempt is made to model river runoff data and predict the future behavioural pattern of river based on annual past observations of annual river runoff. The river runoff analysis and predict are done using ARIMA model. For evaluating the efficiency of prediction to hydrological events such as rainfall, runoff and etc., we use the statistical formulae applicable. The good agreement between predicted and observation river runoff coefficient of determination (R²) display that the ARIMA (4,1,1) is the suitable model for predicting Karkheh River runoff at Iran.

Keywords: Time series modelling, ARIMA model, River runoff, Karkheh River, CLS method.

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Authors: Nilubon Kurubanjerdjit, Nattakarn Iam-On, Ka-Lok Ng

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MicroRNAs are small non-coding RNA found in many different species. They play crucial roles in cancer such as biological processes of apoptosis and proliferation. The identification of microRNA-target genes can be an essential first step towards to reveal the role of microRNA in various cancer types. In this paper, we predict miRNA-target genes for lung cancer by integrating prediction scores from miRanda and PITA algorithms used as a feature vector of miRNA-target interaction. Then, machine-learning algorithms were implemented for making a final prediction. The approach developed in this study should be of value for future studies into understanding the role of miRNAs in molecular mechanisms enabling lung cancer formation.

Keywords: MicroRNA, miRNAs, lung cancer, machine learning, Naïve Bayes, SVM.

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Authors: Kumaresh Sarmah, Kandarpa Kumar Sarma

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Artificial Neural Network (ANN)s are best suited for prediction and optimization problems. Trained ANNs have found wide spread acceptance in several antenna design systems. Four parameters namely antenna radiation resistance, loss resistance, efficiency, and inductance can be used to design an antenna layout though there are several other parameters available. An ANN can be trained to provide the best and worst case precisions of an antenna design problem defined by these four parameters. This work describes the use of an ANN to generate the four mentioned parameters for a loop antenna for the specified frequency range. It also provides insights to the prediction of best and worst-case design problems observed in applications and thereby formulate a model for physical layout design of a loop antenna.

Keywords: MLP, ANN, parameter, prediction, optimization.

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Authors: Nebi Gedik

Abstract:

Heart disease threatens the lives of a great number of people every year around the world. Heart issues lead to many of all deaths; therefore, early diagnosis and treatment are critical. The diagnosis of heart disease is complicated due to several factors affecting health such as high blood pressure, raised cholesterol, an irregular pulse rhythm, and more. Artificial intelligence has the potential to assist in the early detection and treatment of diseases. Improving heart failure prediction is one of the primary goals of research on heart disease risk assessment. This study aims to determine the features that provide the most successful classification prediction in detecting cardiovascular disease. The performances of each feature are compared using the K-Nearest Neighbor machine learning method. The feature that gives the most successful performance has been identified.

Keywords: Cardiovascular disease, feature extraction, supervised learning, k-NN.

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Authors: John Hadden, Ashutosh Tiwari, Rajkumar Roy, Dymitr Ruta

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The aim of this paper is to identify the most suitable model for churn prediction based on three different techniques. The paper identifies the variables that affect churn in reverence of customer complaints data and provides a comparative analysis of neural networks, regression trees and regression in their capabilities of predicting customer churn.

Keywords: Churn, Decision Trees, Neural Networks, Regression.

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Authors: Celso L. Fernando, Toshio Yoshii, Takahiro Tsubota

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Understanding the causes of a road accident and predicting their occurrence is key to prevent deaths and serious injuries from road accident events. Traditional statistical methods such as the Poisson and the Logistics regressions have been used to find the association of the traffic environmental factors with the accident occurred; recently, an artificial neural network, ANN, a computational technique that learns from historical data to make a more accurate prediction, has emerged. Although the ability to make accurate predictions, the ANN has difficulty dealing with highly unbalanced attribute patterns distribution in the training dataset; in such circumstances, the ANN treats the minority group as noise. However, in the real world data, the minority group is often the group of interest; e.g., in the road traffic accident data, the events of the accident are the group of interest. This study proposes a combination of the k-means with the ANN to improve the predictive ability of the neural network model by alleviating the effect of the unbalanced distribution of the attribute patterns in the training dataset. The results show that the proposed method improves the ability of the neural network to make a prediction on a highly unbalanced distributed attribute patterns dataset; however, on an even distributed attribute patterns dataset, the proposed method performs almost like a standard neural network. 

Keywords: Accident risks estimation, artificial neural network, deep learning, K-mean, road safety.

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Authors: Chun-Wei Tung, Chyn Liaw, Shinn-Jang Ho, Shinn-Ying Ho

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Protein subchloroplast locations are correlated with its functions. In contrast to the large amount of available protein sequences, the information of their locations and functions is less known. The experiment works for identification of protein locations and functions are costly and time consuming. The accurate prediction of protein subchloroplast locations can accelerate the study of functions of proteins in chloroplast. This study proposes a Random Forest based method, ChloroRF, to predict protein subchloroplast locations using interpretable physicochemical properties. In addition to high prediction accuracy, the ChloroRF is able to select important physicochemical properties. The important physicochemical properties are also analyzed to provide insights into the underlying mechanism.

Keywords: Chloroplast, Physicochemical properties, Proteinlocations, Random Forests.

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Authors: S. X. Sun, Q. Wang

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With the rapid development of industrialization, countries in different stages of development in the world have gradually begun to pay attention to the impact of air pollution on health and the environment. Air control in developed countries is an effective reference for air control in developing countries. Artificial intelligence and other technologies also play a positive role in the prediction of air pollution. By comparing the annual changes of pollution in London and Beijing, this paper concludes that the pollution in developed cities is relatively low and stable, while the pollution in Beijing is relatively heavy and unstable, but is clearly improving. In addition, by analyzing the changes of major pollutants in Beijing in the past eight years, it is concluded that all pollutants except O3 show a significant downward trend. In addition, all pollutants except O3 have certain correlation. For example, PM10 and PM2.5 have the greatest influence on air quality index (AQI). Python, which is commonly used by artificial intelligence, is used as the main software to establish two models, support vector machine (SVM) and linear regression. By comparing the two models under the same conditions, it is concluded that SVM has higher accuracy in pollution prediction. The results of this study provide valuable reference for pollution control and prediction in developing countries.

Keywords: Air pollution, particulate matter, AQI, correlation coefficient, air pollution prediction.

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Authors: Isaac Mugume, Charles Basalirwa, Daniel Waiswa, Triphonia Ngailo

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Rainfall is a major climatic parameter affecting many sectors such as health, agriculture and water resources. Its quantitative prediction remains a challenge to weather forecasters although numerical weather prediction models are increasingly being used for rainfall prediction. The performance of six convective parameterization schemes, namely the Kain-Fritsch scheme, the Betts-Miller-Janjic scheme, the Grell-Deveny scheme, the Grell-3D scheme, the Grell-Fretas scheme, the New Tiedke scheme of the weather research and forecast (WRF) model regarding quantitative rainfall prediction over Uganda is investigated using the root mean square error for the March-May (MAM) 2013 season. The MAM 2013 seasonal rainfall amount ranged from 200 mm to 900 mm over Uganda with northern region receiving comparatively lower rainfall amount (200–500 mm); western Uganda (270–550 mm); eastern Uganda (400–900 mm) and the lake Victoria basin (400–650 mm). A spatial variation in simulated rainfall amount by different convective parameterization schemes was noted with the Kain-Fritsch scheme over estimating the rainfall amount over northern Uganda (300–750 mm) but also presented comparable rainfall amounts over the eastern Uganda (400–900 mm). The Betts-Miller-Janjic, the Grell-Deveny, and the Grell-3D underestimated the rainfall amount over most parts of the country especially the eastern region (300–600 mm). The Grell-Fretas captured rainfall amount over the northern region (250–450 mm) but also underestimated rainfall over the lake Victoria Basin (150–300 mm) while the New Tiedke generally underestimated rainfall amount over many areas of Uganda. For deterministic rainfall prediction, the Grell-Fretas is recommended for rainfall prediction over northern Uganda while the Kain-Fritsch scheme is recommended over eastern region.

Keywords: Convective parameterization schemes, March-May 2013 rainfall season, spatial variation of parameterization schemes over Uganda, WRF model.

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Authors: Siti Nurhidayah Naqiah Abdull Rani, Herlina Abdul Rahim, Rashidah Ghazali, Noramli Abdul Razak

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Near infrared (NIR) spectroscopy has always been of great interest in the food and agriculture industries. The development of prediction models has facilitated the estimation process in recent years. In this study, 110 crude palm oil (CPO) samples were used to build a free fatty acid (FFA) prediction model. 60% of the collected data were used for training purposes and the remaining 40% used for testing. The visible peaks on the NIR spectrum were at 1725 nm and 1760 nm, indicating the existence of the first overtone of C-H bands. Principal component regression (PCR) was applied to the data in order to build this mathematical prediction model. The optimal number of principal components was 10. The results showed R2=0.7147 for the training set and R2=0.6404 for the testing set.

Keywords: Palm oil, fatty acid, NIRS, regression.

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Authors: M. S. Abdelwahed, M. A. El-Baz, T. T. El-Midany

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this paper aims to provide an approach to predict the performance of the product produced after multi-stages of manufacturing processes, as well as the assembly. Such approach aims to control and subsequently identify the relationship between the process inputs and outputs so that a process engineer can more accurately predict how the process output shall perform based on the system inputs. The approach is guided by a six-sigma methodology to obtain improved performance. In this paper a case study of the manufacture of a hermetic reciprocating compressor is presented. The application of artificial neural networks (ANNs) technique is introduced to improve performance prediction within this manufacturing environment. The results demonstrate that the approach predicts accurately and effectively.

Keywords: Artificial neural networks, Reciprocating compressor manufacturing, Performance prediction, Quality improvement

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Authors: Jingling Li, Yi Zhang, Wei Liang, Tao Cui, Jun Li

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Compared with terrestrial network, the traffic of spatial information network has both self-similarity and short correlation characteristics. By studying its traffic prediction method, the resource utilization of spatial information network can be improved, and the method can provide an important basis for traffic planning of a spatial information network. In this paper, considering the accuracy and complexity of the algorithm, the spatial information network traffic is decomposed into approximate component with long correlation and detail component with short correlation, and a time series hybrid prediction model based on wavelet decomposition is proposed to predict the spatial network traffic. Firstly, the original traffic data are decomposed to approximate components and detail components by using wavelet decomposition algorithm. According to the autocorrelation and partial correlation smearing and truncation characteristics of each component, the corresponding model (AR/MA/ARMA) of each detail component can be directly established, while the type of approximate component modeling can be established by ARIMA model after smoothing. Finally, the prediction results of the multiple models are fitted to obtain the prediction results of the original data. The method not only considers the self-similarity of a spatial information network, but also takes into account the short correlation caused by network burst information, which is verified by using the measured data of a certain back bone network released by the MAWI working group in 2018. Compared with the typical time series model, the predicted data of hybrid model is closer to the real traffic data and has a smaller relative root means square error, which is more suitable for a spatial information network.

Keywords: Spatial Information Network, Traffic prediction, Wavelet decomposition, Time series model.

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Authors: Somayeh Tourani, Alireza Behvandi

Abstract:

The peng-Robinson (PR), a cubic equation of state (EoS), is extended to polymers by using a single set of energy (A1, A2, A3) and co-volume (b) parameters per polymer fitted to experimental volume data. Excellent results for the volumetric behavior of the 11 polymer up to 2000 bar pressure are obtained. The EoS is applied to the correlation and prediction of Henry constants in polymer solutions comprising three polymer and many nonpolar and polar solvents, including supercritical gases. The correlation achieved with two adjustable parameter is satisfactory compared with the experimental data. As a result, the present work provides a simple and useful model for the prediction of Henry's constant for polymer containing systems including those containing polar, nonpolar and supercritical fluids.

Keywords: Equation of state, Henry's constant, Peng-Robinson, polymer solution.

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Authors: M. R. Mustafa, M. H. Isa, R. B. Rezaur

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The use of artificial neural network (ANN) modeling for prediction and forecasting variables in water resources engineering are being increasing rapidly. Infrastructural applications of ANN in terms of selection of inputs, architecture of networks, training algorithms, and selection of training parameters in different types of neural networks used in water resources engineering have been reported. ANN modeling conducted for water resources engineering variables (river sediment and discharge) published in high impact journals since 2002 to 2011 have been examined and presented in this review. ANN is a vigorous technique to develop immense relationship between the input and output variables, and able to extract complex behavior between the water resources variables such as river sediment and discharge. It can produce robust prediction results for many of the water resources engineering problems by appropriate learning from a set of examples. It is important to have a good understanding of the input and output variables from a statistical analysis of the data before network modeling, which can facilitate to design an efficient network. An appropriate training based ANN model is able to adopt the physical understanding between the variables and may generate more effective results than conventional prediction techniques.

Keywords: ANN, discharge, modeling, prediction, sediment,

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Authors: Lee P. Leon, Raymond Charles

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This paper presents a method of evaluating the effect of aggregate angularity on hot mix asphalt (HMA) properties and its relationship to the Permanent Deformation resistance. The research concluded that aggregate particle angularity had a significant effect on the Permanent Deformation performance, and also that with an increase in coarse aggregate angularity there was an increase in the resistance of mixes to Permanent Deformation. A comparison between the measured data and predictive data of permanent deformation predictive models showed the limits of existing prediction models. The numerical analysis described the permanent deformation zones and concluded that angularity has an effect of the onset of these zones. Prediction of permanent deformation help road agencies and by extension economists and engineers determine the best approach for maintenance, rehabilitation, and new construction works of the road infrastructure.

Keywords: Aggregate angularity, asphalt concrete, permanent deformation, rutting prediction.

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Authors: Rahib Abiyev, Vasif H. Abiyev, C. Ardil

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In this paper the development of neural network based fuzzy inference system for electricity consumption prediction is considered. The electricity consumption depends on number of factors, such as number of customers, seasons, type-s of customers, number of plants, etc. It is nonlinear process and can be described by chaotic time-series. The structure and algorithms of neuro-fuzzy system for predicting future values of electricity consumption is described. To determine the unknown coefficients of the system, the supervised learning algorithm is used. As a result of learning, the rules of neuro-fuzzy system are formed. The developed system is applied for predicting future values of electricity consumption of Northern Cyprus. The simulation of neuro-fuzzy system has been performed.

Keywords: Fuzzy logic, neural network, neuro-fuzzy system, neuro-fuzzy prediction.

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Authors: Guy Leshem, Ya'acov Ritov

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Traffic Management and Information Systems, which rely on a system of sensors, aim to describe in real-time traffic in urban areas using a set of parameters and estimating them. Though the state of the art focuses on data analysis, little is done in the sense of prediction. In this paper, we describe a machine learning system for traffic flow management and control for a prediction of traffic flow problem. This new algorithm is obtained by combining Random Forests algorithm into Adaboost algorithm as a weak learner. We show that our algorithm performs relatively well on real data, and enables, according to the Traffic Flow Evaluation model, to estimate and predict whether there is congestion or not at a given time on road intersections.

Keywords: Machine Learning, Boosting, Classification, TrafficCongestion, Data Collecting, Magnetic Loop Detectors, SignalizedIntersections, Traffic Signal Timing Optimization.

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Authors: Tebogo Emma Makaba, Barnabas Ndlovu Gatsheni

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The cities of Johannesburg and Pretoria both located in the Gauteng province are separated by a distance of 58 km. The traffic queues on the Ben Schoeman freeway which connects these two cities can stretch for almost 1.5 km. Vehicle traffic congestion impacts negatively on the business and the commuter’s quality of life. The goal of this paper is to identify variables that influence the flow of traffic and to design a vehicle traffic prediction model, which will predict the traffic flow pattern in advance. The model will unable motorist to be able to make appropriate travel decisions ahead of time. The data used was collected by Mikro’s Traffic Monitoring (MTM). Multi-Layer perceptron (MLP) was used individually to construct the model and the MLP was also combined with Bagging ensemble method to training the data. The cross—validation method was used for evaluating the models. The results obtained from the techniques were compared using predictive and prediction costs. The cost was computed using combination of the loss matrix and the confusion matrix. The predicted models designed shows that the status of the traffic flow on the freeway can be predicted using the following parameters travel time, average speed, traffic volume and day of month. The implications of this work is that commuters will be able to spend less time travelling on the route and spend time with their families. The logistics industry will save more than twice what they are currently spending.

Keywords: Bagging ensemble methods, confusion matrix, multi-layer perceptron, vehicle traffic flow.

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Authors: A. A. Pawar, R. R. Kulkarni

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For numerical prediction of the NOX in the exhaust of a compression ignition engine a model was developed by considering the parameter equivalence ratio. This model was validated by comparing the predicted results of NOX with experimental ones. The ultimate aim of the work was to access the applicability, robustness and performance of the improved NOX model against other NOX models.

Keywords: Biodiesel fueled engine, equivalence ratio, Compression ignition engine, exhausts gas temperature, NOX formation.

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Authors: Baeza S. Roberto

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The knitted fabric suffers a deformation in its dimensions due to stretching and tension factors, transverse and longitudinal respectively, during the process in rectilinear knitting machines so it performs a dry relaxation shrinkage procedure and thermal action of prefixed to obtain stable conditions in the knitting. This paper presents a dry relaxation shrinkage prediction of Bordeaux fiber using a feed forward neural network and linear regression models. Six operational alternatives of shrinkage were predicted. A comparison of the results was performed finding neural network models with higher levels of explanation of the variability and prediction. The presence of different reposes is included. The models were obtained through a neural toolbox of Matlab and Minitab software with real data in a knitting company of Southern Guanajuato. The results allow predicting dry relaxation shrinkage of each alternative operation.

Keywords: Neural network, dry relaxation, knitting, linear regression.

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Authors: Xiaodong Li, Peng Gao, Chao-Jung Huang, Shiying Hao, Xuefeng B. Ling, Yongxia Han, Yaqi Zhang, Le Zheng, Chengyin Ye, Modi Liu, Minjie Xia, Changlin Fu, Bo Jin, Karl G. Sylvester, Eric Widen

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Predicting the risk of Pancreatic Adenocarcinoma (PA) in advance can benefit the quality of care and potentially reduce population mortality and morbidity. The aim of this study was to develop and prospectively validate a risk prediction model to identify patients at risk of new incident PA as early as 3 months before the onset of PA in a statewide, general population in Maine. The PA prediction model was developed using Deep Neural Networks, a deep learning algorithm, with a 2-year electronic-health-record (EHR) cohort. Prospective results showed that our model identified 54.35% of all inpatient episodes of PA, and 91.20% of all PA that required subsequent chemoradiotherapy, with a lead-time of up to 3 months and a true alert of 67.62%. The risk assessment tool has attained an improved discriminative ability. It can be immediately deployed to the health system to provide automatic early warnings to adults at risk of PA. It has potential to identify personalized risk factors to facilitate customized PA interventions.

Keywords: Cancer prediction, deep learning, electronic health records, pancreatic adenocarcinoma.

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Authors: Marine Segui, Ruxandra Mihaela Botez

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OpenVSP is an aerodynamic solver developed by National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) that allows building a reliable model of an aircraft. This software performs an aerodynamic simulation according to the angle of attack of the aircraft makes between the incoming airstream, and its speed. A reliable aerodynamic model of the Cessna Citation X was designed but it required a lot of computation time. As a consequence, a prediction method was established that allowed predicting lift and drag coefficients for all Mach numbers and for all angles of attack, exclusively for stall conditions, from a computation of three angles of attack and only one Mach number. Aerodynamic coefficients given by the prediction method for a Cessna Citation X model were finally compared with aerodynamics coefficients obtained using a complete OpenVSP study.

Keywords: Aerodynamic, coefficient, cruise, improving, longitudinal, OpenVSP, solver, time.

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Authors: An-Jui. Li, Kelvin Lim, Chien-Kuo Chiu, Benson Hsiung

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This paper details the utilization of artificial intelligence (AI) in the field of slope stability whereby quick and convenient solutions can be obtained using the developed tool. The AI tool used in this study is the artificial neural network (ANN), while the slope stability analysis methods are the finite element limit analysis methods. The developed tool allows for the prompt prediction of the safety factors of fill slopes and their corresponding probability of failure (depending on the degree of variation of the soil parameters), which can give the practicing engineer a reasonable basis in their decision making. In fact, the successful use of the Extreme Learning Machine (ELM) algorithm shows that slope stability analysis is no longer confined to the conventional methods of modeling, which at times may be tedious and repetitive during the preliminary design stage where the focus is more on cost saving options rather than detailed design. Therefore, similar ANN-based tools can be further developed to assist engineers in this aspect.

Keywords: Landslide, limit analysis, ANN, soil properties.

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Authors: Chyn Liaw, Chun-Wei Tung, Shinn-Jang Ho, Shinn-Ying Ho

Abstract:

The γ-turns play important roles in protein folding and molecular recognition. The prediction and analysis of γ-turn types are important for both protein structure predictions and better understanding the characteristics of different γ-turn types. This study proposed a physicochemical property-based decision tree (PPDT) method to interpretably predict γ-turn types. In addition to the good prediction performance of PPDT, three simple and human interpretable IF-THEN rules are extracted from the decision tree constructed by PPDT. The identified informative physicochemical properties and concise rules provide a simple way for discriminating and understanding γ-turn types.

Keywords: Classification and regression tree (CART), γ-turn, Physicochemical properties, Protein secondary structure.

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Authors: Isaac Mugume, Charles Basalirwa, Daniel Waiswa, Mary Nsabagwa, Triphonia Jacob Ngailo, Joachim Reuder, Sch¨attler Ulrich, Musa Semujju

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The Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are considered powerful tools for guiding quantitative rainfall prediction. A couple of NWP models exist and are used at many operational weather prediction centers. This study considers two models namely the Consortium for Small–scale Modeling (COSMO) model and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. It compares the models’ ability to predict rainfall over Uganda for the period 21st April 2013 to 10th May 2013 using the root mean square (RMSE) and the mean error (ME). In comparing the performance of the models, this study assesses their ability to predict light rainfall events and extreme rainfall events. All the experiments used the default parameterization configurations and with same horizontal resolution (7 Km). The results show that COSMO model had a tendency of largely predicting no rain which explained its under–prediction. The COSMO model (RMSE: 14.16; ME: -5.91) presented a significantly (p = 0.014) higher magnitude of error compared to the WRF model (RMSE: 11.86; ME: -1.09). However the COSMO model (RMSE: 3.85; ME: 1.39) performed significantly (p = 0.003) better than the WRF model (RMSE: 8.14; ME: 5.30) in simulating light rainfall events. All the models under–predicted extreme rainfall events with the COSMO model (RMSE: 43.63; ME: -39.58) presenting significantly higher error magnitudes than the WRF model (RMSE: 35.14; ME: -26.95). This study recommends additional diagnosis of the models’ treatment of deep convection over the tropics.

Keywords: Comparative performance, the COSMO model, the WRF model, light rainfall events, extreme rainfall events.

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Authors: Irene Luque Ruiz, Manuel Urbano Cuadrado, Miguel Ángel Gómez-Nieto

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In this paper we study different similarity based approaches for the development of QSAR model devoted to the prediction of activity of antiobesity drugs. Classical similarity approaches are compared regarding to dissimilarity models based on the consideration of the calculation of Euclidean distances between the nonisomorphic fragments extracted in the matching process. Combining the classical similarity and dissimilarity approaches into a new similarity measure, the Approximate Similarity was also studied, and better results were obtained. The application of the proposed method to the development of quantitative structure-activity relationships (QSAR) has provided reliable tools for predicting of inhibitory activity of drugs. Acceptable results were obtained for the models presented here.

Keywords: Graph similarity, Nonisomorphic dissimilarity, Approximate similarity, Drugs activity prediction.

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Authors: Parvinder S. Sandhu, Sunil Khullar, Satpreet Singh, Simranjit K. Bains, Manpreet Kaur, Gurvinder Singh

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Fault-proneness of a software module is the probability that the module contains faults. To predict faultproneness of modules different techniques have been proposed which includes statistical methods, machine learning techniques, neural network techniques and clustering techniques. The aim of proposed study is to explore whether metrics available in the early lifecycle (i.e. requirement metrics), metrics available in the late lifecycle (i.e. code metrics) and metrics available in the early lifecycle (i.e. requirement metrics) combined with metrics available in the late lifecycle (i.e. code metrics) can be used to identify fault prone modules using Genetic Algorithm technique. This approach has been tested with real time defect C Programming language datasets of NASA software projects. The results show that the fusion of requirement and code metric is the best prediction model for detecting the faults as compared with commonly used code based model.

Keywords: Genetic Algorithm, Fault Proneness, Software Faultand Software Quality.

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Authors: R. Alipour, F.Najarian

Abstract:

Because of high ductility, aluminum alloys, have been widely used as an important base of metal forming industries. But the main week point of these alloys is their low strength so in forming them with conventional methods like deep drawing, hydro forming, etc have been always faced with problems like fracture during of forming process. Because of this, recently using of explosive forming method for forming of these plates has been recommended. In this paper free explosive forming of A2024 aluminum alloy is numerically simulated and during it, explosion wave propagation process is studied. Consequences of this simulation can be effective in prediction of quality of production. These consequences are compared with an experimental test and show the superiority of this method to similar methods like hydro forming and deep drawing.

Keywords: Free explosive forming, CEL, Johnson cook.

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Authors: Pradeep Kumar, Abdul Wahid

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Accurate software reliability prediction not only enables developers to improve the quality of software but also provides useful information to help them for planning valuable resources. This paper examines the performance of three well-known data mining techniques (CART, TreeNet and Random Forest) for predicting software reliability. We evaluate and compare the performance of proposed models with Cascade Correlation Neural Network (CCNN) using sixteen empirical databases from the Data and Analysis Center for Software. The goal of our study is to help project managers to concentrate their testing efforts to minimize the software failures in order to improve the reliability of the software systems. Two performance measures, Normalized Root Mean Squared Error (NRMSE) and Mean Absolute Errors (MAE), illustrate that CART model is accurate than the models predicted using Random Forest, TreeNet and CCNN in all datasets used in our study. Finally, we conclude that such methods can help in reliability prediction using real-life failure datasets.

Keywords: Classification, Cascade Correlation Neural Network, Random Forest, Software reliability, TreeNet.

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Authors: M. F. V. Montezuma, E. P. Deus, M. C. Carvalho

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Steel bridges are normally subjected to random loads with different traffic frequencies. They are structures with dynamic behavior and are subject to fatigue failure process, where the nucleation of a crack, growth and failure can occur. After locating and determining the size of an existing fault, it is important to predict the crack propagation and the convenient time for repair. Therefore, fracture mechanics and fatigue concepts are essential to the right approach to the problem. To study the fatigue crack growth, a computational code was developed by using the root mean square (RMS) and the cycle-by-cycle models. One observes the variable amplitude loading influence on the life structural prediction. Different loads histories and initial crack length were considered as input variables. Thus, it was evaluated the dispersion of results of the expected structural life choosing different initial parameters.

Keywords: Fatigue crack propagation, life prediction, variable loadings, steel bridges.

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