Search results for: Predator-prey models

Authors: S. K. Mohan, T. Viruthagiri, C. Arunkumar

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Tannase (tannin acyl hydrolase, E.C.3.1.1.20) is an important hydrolysable enzyme with innumerable applications and industrial potential. In the present study, a kinetic model has been developed for the batch fermentation used for the production of tannase by A.flavus MTCC 3783. Maximum tannase activity of 143.30 U/ml was obtained at 96 hours under optimum operating conditions at 35oC, an initial pH of 5.5 and with an inducer tannic acid concentration of 3% (w/v) for a fermentation period of 120 hours. The biomass concentration reaches a maximum of 6.62 g/l at 96 hours and further there was no increase in biomass concentration till the end of the fermentation. Various unstructured kinetic models were analyzed to simulate the experimental values of microbial growth, tannase activity and substrate concentration. The Logistic model for microbial growth , Luedeking - Piret model for production of tannase and Substrate utilization kinetic model for utilization of substrate were capable of predicting the fermentation profile with high coefficient of determination (R2) values of 0.980, 0.942 and 0.983 respectively. The results indicated that the unstructured models were able to describe the fermentation kinetics more effectively.

Keywords: Aspergillus flavus, Batch fermentation, Kinetic model, Tannase, Unstructured models.

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Authors: M. H. Pol, A. Bidi, A. V. Hoseini

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Estimation of natural frequency of structures is very important and isn-t usually calculated simply and sometimes complicated. Lack of knowledge about that caused hard damage and hazardous effects. In this paper, with using from two different models in FEM method and based on hydrodynamic mass of fluids, natural frequency of an especial bearing (Fig. 1) in an electric field (or, a periodic force) is calculated in different stiffness and different geometric. In final, the results of two models and analytical solution are compared.

Keywords: Natural frequency of the bearing, Hydrodynamic mass of fluid method.

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Authors: M. A. Omoloye, M. I. Yusuff, O. K. S. Emiola

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The use of mathematical models for solving biological problems varies from simple to complex analyses, depending on the nature of the research problems and applicability of the models. The method is more common nowadays. Many complex models become impractical when transmitted analytically. However, alternative approach such as numerical method can be employed. It appropriateness in solving linear and non-linear model equation in Differential Transformation Method (DTM) which depends on Taylor series make it applicable. Hence this study investigates the application of DTM to solve dynamic transmission of Lassa fever model in a population. The mathematical model was formulated using first order differential equation. Firstly, existence and uniqueness of the solution was determined to establish that the model is mathematically well posed for the application of DTM. Numerically, simulations were conducted to compare the results obtained by DTM and that of fourth-order Runge-Kutta method. As shown, DTM is very effective in predicting the solution of epidemics of Lassa fever model.

Keywords: Differential Transform Method, Existence and uniqueness, Lassa fever, Runge-Kutta Method.

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Authors: Fulya Aydın, Ayşe Kuleyin

Abstract:

The purpose of this study is to investigate the capacity of natural Turkish zeolite for NH4-N removal from landfill leachate. The effects of modification and initial concentration on the removal of NH4-N from leachate were also investigated. The kinetics of adsorption of NH4-N has been discussed using three kinetic models, i.e., the pseudo-second order model, the Elovich equation, the intraparticle diffuion model. Kinetic parameters and correlation coefficients were determined. Equilibrium isotherms for the adsorption of NH4-N were analyzed by Langmuir, Freundlich and Tempkin isotherm models. Langmuir isotherm model was found to best represent the data for NH4-N.

Keywords: Leachate, Ammonium, zeolite

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Authors: Yiannis G. Smirlis

Abstract:

The classification and the prediction of efficiencies in Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) is an important issue, especially in large scale problems or when new units frequently enter the under-assessment set. In this paper, we contribute to the subject by proposing a grid structure based on interval segmentations of the range of values for the inputs and outputs. Such intervals combined, define hyper-rectangles that partition the space of the problem. This structure, exploited by Interval DEA models and a dominance relation, acts as a DEA pre-processor, enabling the classification and prediction of efficiency scores, without applying any DEA models.

Keywords: Data envelopment analysis, interval DEA, efficiency classification, efficiency prediction.

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Authors: T. K. Sriram, Joydip Dhar

Abstract:

Models based on stage structure have found varied applications in population models. This paper proposes a stage structured model to study the trends in the computer and video game playing population of US. The game paying population is divided into three compartments based on their age group. After simulating the mathematical model, a forecast of the number of game players in each stage as well as an approximation of the average age of game players in future has been made.

Keywords: Age structure, Forecasting, Mathematical modeling, Stage structure.

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Authors: Teh Raihana Nazirah Roslan, Siti Zulaiha Ibrahim, Sharmila Karim

Abstract:

A warrant is a financial contract that confers the right but not the obligation, to buy or sell a security at a certain price before expiration. The standard procedure to value equity warrants using call option pricing models such as the Black–Scholes model had been proven to contain many flaws, such as the assumption of constant interest rate and constant volatility. In fact, existing alternative models were found focusing more on demonstrating techniques for pricing, rather than empirical testing. Therefore, a mathematical model for pricing and analyzing equity warrants which comprises stochastic interest rate and stochastic volatility is essential to incorporate the dynamic relationships between the identified variables and illustrate the real market. Here, the aim is to develop dynamic pricing formulations for hybrid equity warrants by incorporating stochastic interest rates from the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) model, along with stochastic volatility from the Heston model. The development of the model involves the derivations of stochastic differential equations that govern the model dynamics. The resulting equations which involve Cauchy problem and heat equations are then solved using partial differential equation approaches. The analytical pricing formulas obtained in this study comply with the form of analytical expressions embedded in the Black-Scholes model and other existing pricing models for equity warrants. This facilitates the practicality of this proposed formula for comparison purposes and further empirical study.

Keywords: Cox-Ingersoll-Ross model, equity warrants, Heston model, hybrid models, stochastic.

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Authors: S. Cagin, X. Fischer, E. Delacourt, N. Bourabaa, C. Morin, D. Coutellier, B. Carré, S. Loumé

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The complexity of scavenging by ports and its impact on engine efficiency create the need to understand and to model it as realistically as possible. However, there are few empirical scavenging models and these are highly specialized. In a design optimization process, they appear very restricted and their field of use is limited. This paper presents a comparison of two methods to establish and reduce a model of the scavenging process in 2-stroke diesel engines. To solve the lack of scavenging models, a CFD model has been developed and is used as the referent case. However, its large size requires a reduction. Two techniques have been tested depending on their fields of application: The NTF method and neural networks. They both appear highly appropriate drastically reducing the model’s size (over 90% reduction) with a low relative error rate (under 10%). Furthermore, each method produces a reduced model which can be used in distinct specialized fields of application: the distribution of a quantity (mass fraction for example) in the cylinder at each time step (pseudo-dynamic model) or the qualification of scavenging at the end of the process (pseudo-static model).

Keywords: Diesel engine, Design optimization, Model reduction, Neural network, NTF algorithm, Scavenging.

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Authors: Jaime R. S. Fonseca

Abstract:

Nevertheless the widespread application of finite mixture models in segmentation, finite mixture model selection is still an important issue. In fact, the selection of an adequate number of segments is a key issue in deriving latent segments structures and it is desirable that the selection criteria used for this end are effective. In order to select among several information criteria, which may support the selection of the correct number of segments we conduct a simulation study. In particular, this study is intended to determine which information criteria are more appropriate for mixture model selection when considering data sets with only categorical segmentation base variables. The generation of mixtures of multinomial data supports the proposed analysis. As a result, we establish a relationship between the level of measurement of segmentation variables and some (eleven) information criteria-s performance. The criterion AIC3 shows better performance (it indicates the correct number of the simulated segments- structure more often) when referring to mixtures of multinomial segmentation base variables.

Keywords: Quantitative Methods, Multivariate Data Analysis, Clustering, Finite Mixture Models, Information Theoretical Criteria, Simulation experiments.

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Authors: B.A.Gobin, R.K.Subramanian

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This paper gives an overview of the mapping mechanism of SEAM-a methodology for the automatic generation of knowledge models and its mapping onto Java codes. It discusses the rules that will be used to map the different components in the knowledge model automatically onto Java classes, properties and methods. The aim of developing this mechanism is to help in the creation of a prototype which will be used to validate the knowledge model which has been generated automatically. It will also help to link the modeling phase with the implementation phase as existing knowledge engineering methodologies do not provide for proper guidelines for the transition from the knowledge modeling phase to development phase. This will decrease the development overheads associated to the development of Knowledge Based Systems.

Keywords: KBS, OWL, ontology, knowledge models

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Authors: Zhaoan Wang

Abstract:

Research in predictive maintenance modeling has improved in the recent years to predict failures and needed maintenance with high accuracy, saving cost and improving manufacturing efficiency. However, classic prediction models provide little valuable insight towards the most important features contributing to the failure. By analyzing and quantifying feature importance in predictive maintenance models, cost saving can be optimized based on business goals. First, multiple classifiers are evaluated with cross-validation to predict the multi-class of failures. Second, predictive performance with features provided by different feature selection algorithms are further analyzed. Third, features selected by different algorithms are ranked and combined based on their predictive power. Finally, linear explainer SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) is applied to interpret classifier behavior and provide further insight towards the specific roles of features in both local predictions and global model behavior. The results of the experiments suggest that certain features play dominant roles in predictive models while others have significantly less impact on the overall performance. Moreover, for multi-class prediction of machine failures, the most important features vary with type of machine failures. The results may lead to improved productivity and cost saving by prioritizing sensor deployment, data collection, and data processing of more important features over less importance features.

Keywords: Automated supply chain, intelligent manufacturing, predictive maintenance machine learning, feature engineering, model interpretation.

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Authors: Masoud Sadeghian, Alireza Fatehi

Abstract:

In this paper, we use nonlinear system identification method to predict and detect process fault of a cement rotary kiln. After selecting proper inputs and output, an input-output model is identified for the plant. To identify the various operation points in the kiln, Locally Linear Neuro-Fuzzy (LLNF) model is used. This model is trained by LOLIMOT algorithm which is an incremental treestructure algorithm. Then, by using this method, we obtained 3 distinct models for the normal and faulty situations in the kiln. One of the models is for normal condition of the kiln with 15 minutes prediction horizon. The other two models are for the two faulty situations in the kiln with 7 minutes prediction horizon are presented. At the end, we detect these faults in validation data. The data collected from White Saveh Cement Company is used for in this study.

Keywords: Cement Rotary Kiln, Fault Detection, Delay Estimation Method, Locally Linear Neuro Fuzzy Model, LOLIMOT.

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Authors: Mamoun Sqali, Mohamed Wassim Trojet

Abstract:

The requirements analysis, modeling, and simulation have consistently been one of the main challenges during the development of complex systems. The scenarios and the state machines are two successful models to describe the behavior of an interactive system. The scenarios represent examples of system execution in the form of sequences of messages exchanged between objects and are a partial view of the system. In contrast, state machines can represent the overall system behavior. The automation of processing scenarios in the state machines provide some answers to various problems such as system behavior validation and scenarios consistency checking. In this paper, we propose a method for translating scenarios in state machines represented by Discreet EVent Specification and procedure to detect implied scenarios. Each induced DEVS model represents the behavior of an object of the system. The global system behavior is described by coupling the atomic DEVS models and validated through simulation. We improve the validation process with integrating formal methods to eliminate logical inconsistencies in the global model. For that end, we use the Z notation.

Keywords: Scenarios, DEVS, synthesis, validation and verification, simulation, formal verification, z notation.

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Authors: F. Z. Eddoug, J. Benhra, R. Benabbou

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Excellence and Success are the ultimate goal for any project and in order to achieve it, every project manager looks for the convenient tools and methods. This work proposes a framework that seeks an efficient management of general project through a lean and agile approach. In order to get this objective, the article was divided in two stages, the first one was emphasized on exploring and analyzing the existing project management models and then in the second one the desired framework was created, beginning by focusing on seven existing models and then proposing for each phase of the framework the convenient lean and agile tools.

Keywords: Agility, hybrid project management, lean, scrum.

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Authors: Pedro M. Abreu, Bruno R. Mendes

Abstract:

The management of pharmacotherapy and the process of dispensing medicines is becoming critical in clinical pharmacy due to the increase of incidence and prevalence of chronic diseases, the complexity and customization of therapeutic regimens, the introduction of innovative and more expensive medicines, the unbalanced relation between expenditure and revenue as well as due to the lack of rationalization associated with medication use. For these reasons, co-payments emerged in Europe in the 70s and have been applied over the past few years in healthcare. Co-payments lead to a rationing and rationalization of user’s access under healthcare services and products, and simultaneously, to a qualification and improvement of the services and products for the end-user. This analysis, under hospital practices particularly and co-payment strategies in general, was carried out on all the European regions and identified four reference countries, that apply repeatedly this tool and with different approaches. The structure, content and adaptation of European co-payments were analyzed through 7 qualitative attributes and 19 performance indicators, and the results expressed in a scorecard, allowing to conclude that the German models (total score of 68,2% and 63,6% in both elected co-payments) can collect more compliance and effectiveness, the English models (total score of 50%) can be more accessible, and the French models (total score of 50%) can be more adequate to the socio-economic and legal framework. Other European models did not show the same quality and/or performance, so were not taken as a standard in the future design of co-payments strategies. In this sense, we can see in the co-payments a strategy not only to moderate the consumption of healthcare products and services, but especially to improve them, as well as a strategy to increment the value that the end-user assigns to these services and products, such as medicines.

Keywords: Clinical pharmacy, co-payments, healthcare, medicines.

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Authors: Angela Unna Chukwu, Samuel Oluwafemi Oyamakin

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We proposed a Hyperbolic Gompertz Growth Model (HGGM), which was developed by introducing a shape parameter (allometric). This was achieved by convoluting hyperbolic sine function on the intrinsic rate of growth in the classical gompertz growth equation. The resulting integral solution obtained deterministically was reprogrammed into a statistical model and used in modeling the height and diameter of Pines (Pinus caribaea). Its ability in model prediction was compared with the classical gompertz growth model, an approach which mimicked the natural variability of height/diameter increment with respect to age and therefore provides a more realistic height/diameter predictions using goodness of fit tests and model selection criteria. The Kolmogorov Smirnov test and Shapiro-Wilk test was also used to test the compliance of the error term to normality assumptions while the independence of the error term was confirmed using the runs test. The mean function of top height/Dbh over age using the two models under study predicted closely the observed values of top height/Dbh in the hyperbolic gompertz growth models better than the source model (classical gompertz growth model) while the results of R2, Adj. R2, MSE and AIC confirmed the predictive power of the Hyperbolic Gompertz growth models over its source model.

Keywords: Height, Dbh, forest, Pinus caribaea, hyperbolic, gompertz.

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Authors: Yoonsuh Jung

Abstract:

As DNA microarray data contain relatively small sample size compared to the number of genes, high dimensional models are often employed. In high dimensional models, the selection of tuning parameter (or, penalty parameter) is often one of the crucial parts of the modeling. Cross-validation is one of the most common methods for the tuning parameter selection, which selects a parameter value with the smallest cross-validated score. However, selecting a single value as an ‘optimal’ value for the parameter can be very unstable due to the sampling variation since the sample sizes of microarray data are often small. Our approach is to choose multiple candidates of tuning parameter first, then average the candidates with different weights depending on their performance. The additional step of estimating the weights and averaging the candidates rarely increase the computational cost, while it can considerably improve the traditional cross-validation. We show that the selected value from the suggested methods often lead to stable parameter selection as well as improved detection of significant genetic variables compared to the tradition cross-validation via real data and simulated data sets.

Keywords: Cross Validation, Parameter Averaging, Parameter Selection, Regularization Parameter Search.

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Authors: F. Lazzali, M. Farsi

Abstract:

Several models of vulnerability assessment have been proposed. The selection of one of these models depends on the objectives of the study. The classical methodologies for seismic vulnerability analysis, as a part of seismic risk analysis, have been formulated with statistical criteria based on a rapid observation. The information relating to the buildings performance is statistically elaborated. In this paper, we use the European Macroseismic Scale EMS-98 to define the relationship between damage and macroseismic intensity to assess the seismic vulnerability. Applying to Algiers area, the first step is to identify building typologies and to assign vulnerability classes. In the second step, damages are investigated according to EMS-98.

Keywords: Damage, EMS-98, inventory building, vulnerability classes

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Authors: L. Yettou

Abstract:

In this study, the calculations of proton emission spectra produced by ⁶³Cu(n,xp) and ⁶⁵Cu(n,xp) reactions are used in the framework of preequilibrium models using the EMPIRE code and TALYS code. Exciton Model predidtions combined with the Kalbach angular distribution systematics and the Hybrid Monte Carlo Simulation (HMS) were used. The effects of levels densities and those of a-parameter have been investigated for our calculations. The comparison with experimental data shows clear improvement over the Exciton Model and HMS calculations.

Keywords: Preequilibrium models, level density, level density a-parameter, 63Cu(n, xp) and 65Cu(n, xp) reactions.

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Authors: I. V. Pinto, M. R. Sooriyarachchi

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It can be frequently observed that the data arising in our environment have a hierarchical or a nested structure attached with the data. Multilevel modelling is a modern approach to handle this kind of data. When multilevel modelling is combined with a binary response, the estimation methods get complex in nature and the usual techniques are derived from quasi-likelihood method. The estimation methods which are compared in this study are, marginal quasi-likelihood (order 1 & order 2) (MQL1, MQL2) and penalized quasi-likelihood (order 1 & order 2) (PQL1, PQL2). A statistical model is of no use if it does not reflect the given dataset. Therefore, checking the adequacy of the fitted model through a goodness-of-fit (GOF) test is an essential stage in any modelling procedure. However, prior to usage, it is also equally important to confirm that the GOF test performs well and is suitable for the given model. This study assesses the suitability of the GOF test developed for binary response multilevel models with respect to the method used in model estimation. An extensive set of simulations was conducted using MLwiN (v 2.19) with varying number of clusters, cluster sizes and intra cluster correlations. The test maintained the desirable Type-I error for models estimated using PQL2 and it failed for almost all the combinations of MQL. Power of the test was adequate for most of the combinations in all estimation methods except MQL1. Moreover, models were fitted using the four methods to a real-life dataset and performance of the test was compared for each model.

Keywords: Goodness-of-fit test, marginal quasi-likelihood, multilevel modelling, type-I error, penalized quasi-likelihood, power, quasi-likelihood.

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Authors: Rami Al-Ruzouq, Abdallah Al-Zoubi, Abdel-Rahman Abueladas, Petya Dimitrova

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Protection and proper management of archaeological heritage are an essential process of studying and interpreting the generations present and future. Protecting the archaeological heritage is based upon multidiscipline professional collaboration. This study aims to gather data by different sources (Photogrammetry and Geographic Information System (GIS)) integrated for the purpose of documenting one the of significant archeological sites (Ahl-Alkahf, Jordan). 3D modeling deals with the actual image of the features, shapes and texture to represent reality as realistically as possible by using texture. The 3D coordinates that result of the photogrammetric adjustment procedures are used to create 3D-models of the study area. Adding Textures to the 3D-models surfaces gives a 'real world' appearance to the displayed models. GIS system combined all data, including boundary maps, indicating the location of archeological sites, transportation layer, digital elevation model and orthoimages. For realistic representation of the study area, 3D - GIS model prepared, where efficient generation, management and visualization of such special data can be achieved.

Keywords: Archaeology, close range photogrammetry, ortho-photo, 3D-GIS

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Authors: Nader Ghareeb, R¨udiger Schmidt

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Minimizing the weight in flexible structures means reducing material and costs as well. However, these structures could become prone to vibrations. Attenuating these vibrations has become a pivotal engineering problem that shifted the focus of many research endeavors. One technique to do that is to design and implement an active control system. This system is mainly composed of a vibrating structure, a sensor to perceive the vibrations, an actuator to counteract the influence of disturbances, and finally a controller to generate the appropriate control signals. In this work, two different techniques are explored to create two different mathematical models of an active control system. The first model is a finite element model with a reduced number of nodes and it is called a super-element. The second model is in the form of state-space representation, i.e. a set of partial differential equations. The damping coefficients are calculated and incorporated into both models. The effectiveness of these models is demonstrated when the system is excited by its first natural frequency and an active control strategy is developed and implemented to attenuate the resulting vibrations. Results from both modeling techniques are presented and compared.

Keywords: Finite element analysis, super-element, state-space model.

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Authors: Michele Sinico

Abstract:

The present research investigates the effect of symmetry on the perception of happiness and boredom in design products. Three experiments were carried out in order to verify the degree of the visual expressive value on different models of bookcases, wall clocks, and chairs. 60 participants directly indicated the degree of happiness and boredom using 7-point rating scales. The findings show that the participants acknowledged a different value of expressive quality in the different product models. Results show also that symmetry is not a significant constraint for an emotional design project.

Keywords: Product experience, emotional design, symmetry, expressive qualities.

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Authors: Antonio Natali, Ambra Molesini

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In modern distributed software systems, the issue of communication among composing parts represents a critical point, but the idea of extending conventional programming languages with general purpose communication constructs seems difficult to realize. As a consequence, there is a (growing) gap between the abstraction level required by distributed applications and the concepts provided by platforms that enable communication. This work intends to discuss how the Model Driven Software Development approach can be considered as a mature technology to generate in automatic way the schematic part of applications related to communication, by providing at the same time high level specialized languages useful in all the phases of software production. To achieve the goal, a stack of languages (meta-meta¬models) has been introduced in order to describe – at different levels of abstraction – the collaborative behavior of generic entities in terms of communication actions related to a taxonomy of messages. Finally, the generation of platforms for communication is viewed as a form of specification of language semantics, that provides executable models of applications together with model-checking supports and effective runtime environments.

Keywords: Interactions, specific languages, meta-models, model driven development.

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Authors: Pavel Zikmund, Robert Popela

Abstract:

Extreme formation is a theoretical concept of selfsustain flight when a big airliner is followed by a small UAV glider flying in the airliner wake vortex. The paper presents results of a climb analysis with the goal to lift the gliding UAV to airliners cruise altitude. Wake vortex models, the UAV drag polar and basic parameters and airliner’s climb profile are introduced at first. Afterwards, flight performance of the UAV in a wake vortex is evaluated by analytical methods. Time history of optimal distance between an airliner and the UAV during a climb is determined. The results are encouraging. Therefore available UAV drag margin for electricity generation is figured out for different vortex models.

Keywords: Flight in formation, self-sustained flight, UAV, wake vortex.

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Authors: Yan Lyu, Yiqun Pan, Zhizhong Huang

Abstract:

In the design stage of a new building, the energy model of this building is often required for the analysis of the performance on energy efficiency. In practice, a certain degree of geometric simplification should be done in the establishment of building energy models, since the detailed geometric features of a real building are hard to be described perfectly in most energy simulation engine, such as ESP-r, eQuest or EnergyPlus. Actually, the detailed description is not necessary when the result with extremely high accuracy is not demanded. Therefore, this paper analyzed the relationship between the error of the simulation result from building energy models and the geometric simplification of the models. Finally, the following two parameters are selected as the indices to characterize the geometric feature of in building energy simulation: the southward projected area and total side surface area of the building. Based on the parameterization method, the simplification from an arbitrary column building to a typical shape (a cuboid) building can be made for energy modeling. The result in this study indicates that no more than 7% prediction error of annual cooling/heating load will be caused by the geometric simplification for those buildings with the ratio of southward projection length to total perimeter of the bottom of 0.25~0.35, which means this method is applicable for building performance simulation.

Keywords: building energy model, simulation, geometric simplification, design, regression

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Authors: Gilberto Gonzalez-A, Dunia Nuñez-P

Abstract:

Bond graph models of an electrical transformer including the nonlinear saturation are presented. The transformer using electrical and magnetic circuits are modelled. These models determine the relation between self and mutual inductances, and the leakage and magnetizing inductances of power transformers with two windings using the properties of a bond graph. The equivalence between electrical and magnetic variables is given. The modelling and analysis using this methodology to three phase power transformers can be extended.

Keywords: Bond graph, electrical transformer, magnetic circuits, nonlinear saturation.

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Authors: Petr Teply

Abstract:

Liquidity risk management ranks to key concepts applied in finance. Liquidity is defined as a capacity to obtain funding when needed, while liquidity risk means as a threat to this capacity to generate cash at fair costs. In the paper we present challenges of liquidity risk management resulting from the 2007- 2009 global financial upheaval. We see five main regulatory liquidity risk management issues requiring revision in coming years: liquidity measurement, intra-day and intra-group liquidity management, contingency planning and liquidity buffers, liquidity systems, controls and governance, and finally models testing the viability of business liquidity models.

Keywords: liquidity, risk management, regulation, global crisis

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Authors: M. Centra

Abstract:

Due to the liberalization of countless electricity markets, load forecasting has become crucial to all public utilities for which electricity is a strategic variable. With the goal of contributing to the forecasting process inside public utilities, this paper addresses the issue of applying the Holt-Winters exponential smoothing technique and the time series analysis for forecasting the hourly electricity load curve of the Italian railways. The results of the analysis confirm the accuracy of the two models and therefore the relevance of forecasting inside public utilities.

Keywords: ARIMA models, Exponential smoothing, Electricity, Load forecasting, Rail transportation.

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Authors: A. A. Hekmatzadeh, A. Karimi-Jashani, N. Talebbeydokhti

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The rate of nitrate adsorption by a nitrate selective ion exchange resin was investigated in a well-stirred batch experiments. The kinetic experimental data were simulated with diffusion models including external mass transfer, particle diffusion and chemical adsorption. Particle pore volume diffusion and particle surface diffusion were taken into consideration separately and simultaneously in the modeling. The model equations were solved numerically using the Crank-Nicholson scheme. An optimization technique was employed to optimize the model parameters. All nitrate concentration decay data were well described with the all diffusion models. The results indicated that the kinetic process is initially controlled by external mass transfer and then by particle diffusion. The external mass transfer coefficient and the coefficients of pore volume diffusion and surface diffusion in all experiments were close to each other with the average value of 8.3×10-3 cm/S for external mass transfer coefficient. In addition, the models are more sensitive to the mass transfer coefficient in comparison with particle diffusion. Moreover, it seems that surface diffusion is the dominant particle diffusion in comparison with pore volume diffusion.

Keywords: External mass transfer, pore volume diffusion, surface diffusion, mass action law isotherm.

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