Search results for: Modal assurance criterion

Authors: Byoung-Uk Nam, Hag-Seong Kim, Ho-Jung Lee, Dong-Hyun Kim

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This paper focuses on systematic analysis and controller design of the two-inertia STABILIZATION system, considering the angular motion on a base body. This approach is essential to the stabilization system to aim at a target under three or six degrees of freedom base motion. Four controllers, such as conventional PDF(Pseudo-Derivative Feedback) controller with motor speed feedback, PDF controller with load speed feedback, modified PDF controller with motor-load speed feedback and feedforward controller added to modified PDF controller, are suggested to improve reference tracking and disturbance rejection performance. Characteristics and performance of each controller are analyzed and validated by simulation in the case of the modified PDF controller with and without a feedforward controller.

Keywords: Two-Inertia stabilization System, ITAE criterion, Speed Control.

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Authors: Meng Hu, Lili Wang

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In this paper, based on linear matrix inequality (LMI), by using Lyapunov functional theory, the exponential stability criterion is obtained for a class of uncertain Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy Hopfield neural networks (TSFHNNs) with time delays. Here we choose a generalized Lyapunov functional and introduce a parameterized model transformation with free weighting matrices to it, these techniques lead to generalized and less conservative stability condition that guarantee the wide stability region. Finally, an example is given to illustrate our results by using MATLAB LMI toolbox.

Keywords: Hopfield neural network, linear matrix inequality, exponential stability, time delay, T-S fuzzy model.

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Authors: Y. Kurosawa, T. Yamaguchi

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A numerical method is proposed to calculate damping properties for sound-proof structures involving elastic body, viscoelastic body, and porous media. For elastic and viscoelastic body displacement is modeled using conventional finite elements including complex modulus of elasticity. Both effective density and bulk modulus have complex quantities to represent damped sound fields in the porous media. Particle displacement in the porous media is discretised using finite element method. Displacement vectors as common unknown variables are solved under coupled condition between elastic body, viscoelastic body and porous media. Further, explicit expressions of modal loss factor for the mixed structures are derived using asymptotic method. Eigenvalue analysis and frequency responded were calculated for automotive test panel laminated viscoelastic and porous structures using this technique, the results almost agreed with the experimental results.

Keywords: Damping, Porous Media, Finite Element Method, Computer Aided Engineering.

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Authors: Aikaterini Fountoulaki, Nikos Karacapilidis, Manolis Manatakis

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This paper proposes an innovative methodology for Acceptance Sampling by Variables, which is a particular category of Statistical Quality Control dealing with the assurance of products quality. Our contribution lies in the exploitation of machine learning techniques to address the complexity and remedy the drawbacks of existing approaches. More specifically, the proposed methodology exploits Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) to aid decision making about the acceptance or rejection of an inspected sample. For any type of inspection, ANNs are trained by data from corresponding tables of a standard-s sampling plan schemes. Once trained, ANNs can give closed-form solutions for any acceptance quality level and sample size, thus leading to an automation of the reading of the sampling plan tables, without any need of compromise with the values of the specific standard chosen each time. The proposed methodology provides enough flexibility to quality control engineers during the inspection of their samples, allowing the consideration of specific needs, while it also reduces the time and the cost required for these inspections. Its applicability and advantages are demonstrated through two numerical examples.

Keywords: Acceptance Sampling, Neural Networks, Statistical Quality Control.

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Authors: Abdelfatteh Haidine, Ralf Lehnert

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In this paper a new approach is proposed for the adaptation of the simulated annealing search in the field of the Multi-Objective Optimization (MOO). This new approach is called Multi-Case Multi-Objective Simulated Annealing (MC-MOSA). It uses some basics of a well-known recent Multi-Objective Simulated Annealing proposed by Ulungu et al., which is referred in the literature as U-MOSA. However, some drawbacks of this algorithm have been found, and are substituted by other ones, especially in the acceptance decision criterion. The MC-MOSA has shown better performance than the U-MOSA in the numerical experiments. This performance is further improved by some other subvariants of the MC-MOSA, such as Fast-annealing MC-MOSA, Re-annealing MCMOSA and the Two-Stage annealing MC-MOSA.

Keywords: Simulated annealing, multi-objective optimization, acceptance decision criteria, re-annealing, two-stage annealing.

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Authors: Jin-Hee Park, Yong-Gyu Lee, Gilwon Yoon

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Wireless capsule endoscopy provides real-time images in the digestive tract. Capsule images are usually low resolution and are diverse images due to travel through various regions of human body. Color information has been a primary reference in predicting abnormalities such as bleeding. Often color is not sufficient for this purpose. In this study, we took morphological shapes into account as additional, but important criterion. First, we processed gastric images in order to indentify various objects in the image. Then, we analyzed color information in the object. In this way, we could remove unnecessary information and increase the accuracy. Compared to our previous investigations, we could handle images of various degrees of brightness and improve our diagnostic algorithm.

Keywords: Capsule Endoscopy, HSV model, Image processing, Object Identification, Color Separation.

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Authors: Khin May Win, Nan Sai Moon Kham

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Identification of cancer genes that might anticipate the clinical behaviors from different types of cancer disease is challenging due to the huge number of genes and small number of patients samples. The new method is being proposed based on supervised learning of classification like support vector machines (SVMs).A new solution is described by the introduction of the Maximized Margin (MM) in the subset criterion, which permits to get near the least generalization error rate. In class prediction problem, gene selection is essential to improve the accuracy and to identify genes for cancer disease. The performance of the new method was evaluated with real-world data experiment. It can give the better accuracy for classification.

Keywords: Microarray data, feature selection, recursive featureelimination, support vector machines.

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Authors: M. Sasajima, T. Yamaguchi, Y. Koike, A. Hara

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This paper describes vibration analysis using the finite element method for a small earphone, especially for the diaphragm shape with a low-rigidity. The viscoelastic diaphragm is supported by multiple nonlinear concentrated springs with linear hysteresis damping. The restoring forces of the nonlinear springs have cubic nonlinearity. The finite elements for the nonlinear springs with hysteresis are expressed and are connected to the diaphragm that is modeled by linear solid finite elements in consideration of a complex modulus of elasticity. Further, the discretized equations in physical coordinates are transformed into the nonlinear ordinary coupled equations using normal coordinates corresponding to the linear natural modes. We computed the nonlinear stationary and non-stationary responses due to the internal resonance between modes with large amplitude in the nonlinear springs and elastic modes in the diaphragm. The non-stationary motions are confirmed as the chaos due to the maximum Lyapunov exponents with a positive number. From the time histories of the deformation distribution in the chaotic vibration, we identified nonlinear modal couplings.

Keywords: Nonlinear Vibration, Finite Element Method, Chaos , Small Earphone.

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Authors: M. Ouassaid, A. Nejmi, M. Cherkaoui, M. Maaroufi

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The very nonlinear nature of the generator and system behaviour following a severe disturbance precludes the use of classical linear control technique. In this paper, a new approach of nonlinear control is proposed for transient and steady state stability analysis of a synchronous generator. The control law of the generator excitation is derived from the basis of Lyapunov stability criterion. The overall stability of the system is shown using Lyapunov technique. The application of the proposed controller to simulated generator excitation control under a large sudden fault and wide range of operating conditions demonstrates that the new control strategy is superior to conventional automatic voltage regulator (AVR), and show very promising results.

Keywords: Excitation control, Lyapunov technique, non linearcontrol, synchronous generator, transient stability, voltage regulation.

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Authors: Semeh Ben Salem, Sami Naouali, Moetez Sallami

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The increasing amount of collected data has limited the performance of the current analyzing algorithms. Thus, developing new cost-effective algorithms in terms of complexity, scalability, and accuracy raised significant interests. In this paper, a modified effective k-means based algorithm is developed and experimented. The new algorithm aims to reduce the computational load without significantly affecting the quality of the clusterings. The algorithm uses the City Block distance and a new stop criterion to guarantee the convergence. Conducted experiments on a real data set show its high performance when compared with the original k-means version.

Keywords: Pattern recognition, partitional clustering, K-means clustering, Manhattan distance, terrorism data analysis.

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Authors: Grzegorz Sierpiński, Ireneusz Celiński, Marcin Staniek

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The article discusses multimodal mobility in contemporary societies as a main planning and organization issue in the functioning of administrative bodies, a problem which really exists in the space of contemporary cities in terms of shaping modern transport systems. The article presents classification of available resources and initiatives undertaken for developing multimodal mobility. Solutions can be divided into three groups of measures – physical measures in the form of changes of the transport network infrastructure, organizational ones (including transport policy) and information measures. The latter ones include in particular direct support for people travelling in the transport network by providing information about ways of using available means of transport. A special measure contributing to this end is a trip planner. The article compares several selected planners. It includes a short description of the Green Travelling Project, which aims at developing a planner supporting environmentally friendly solutions in terms of transport network operation. The article summarizes preliminary findings of the project.

Keywords: Mobility, modal split, multimodal trip, multimodal platforms, sustainable transport.

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Authors: H. Kaatuzian, M. Sedghi, S. Khatami

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In this paper, by exploiting a single semiconductor optical amplifier-Mach Zehnder Interferometer (SOA-MZI), an integratable all-optical flip-flop (AOFF) is proposed. It is composed of a SOA-MZI with a bidirectional coupler at the output. Output signals of both bar and crossbar of the SOA-MZI is fed back to SOAs located in the arms of the Mach-Zehnder Interferometer (MZI). The injected photon-rates to the SOAs are modulated by feedback signals in order to form optical flip-flop. According to numerical analysis, Gaussian optical pulses with the energy of 15.2 fJ and 20 ps duration with the full width at half-maximum criterion, can switch the states of the SR-AOFF. Also simulation results show that the SR-AOFF has the contrast ratio of 8.5 dB between two states with the transition time of nearly 20 ps.

Keywords: All Optical, Flip-Flop, Mach-Zehnder Interferometer (MZI), Semiconductor Optical Amplifier (SOA).

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Authors: A. H. Hendry, H. S. Mogindol

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There is an increasing worldwide demand on the field of interaction with wildlife tourism. Studies pertaining to the service quality within the sphere of interaction with wildlife tourism are plentiful. However, studies on service quality in wildlife attractions, especially on semi-captured wildlife tourism are still limited. The Sepilok Orangutan Rehabilitation Centre (SORC) in Sandakan, Sabah, Malaysia is one good example of a semi-captured wildlife attraction and a renowned attraction in Sabah. This study presents a gap analysis by measuring the perception and expectation of service quality at SORC through the use of a modified SERVQUAL, referred to as WILSERV. A survey questionnaire was devised and administered to 190 visitors who visited SORC. The study revealed that all the means of the six dimensions for perceived perceptions were lower than the expectations. The highest gap was from the dimension of reliability (-0.21), followed by tangible (-0.17), responsiveness (-0.11), assurance, (-0.11), empathy (-0.11) and wild-tangible (-0.05). Similarly, the study also showed that all six dimensions for perceived perceptions means were lower than the expectations for both local and foreign visitors.

Keywords: Gap analysis, service quality, WILSERV, wildlife tourism.

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Authors: Parvinder Singh Sandhu, Sumeet Kaur Sehra, Karmjit Kaur

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Phylogenetic tree is a graphical representation of the evolutionary relationship among three or more genes or organisms. These trees show relatedness of data sets, species or genes divergence time and nature of their common ancestors. Quality of a phylogenetic tree requires parsimony criterion. Various approaches have been proposed for constructing most parsimonious trees. This paper is concerned about calculating and optimizing the changes of state that are needed called Small Parsimony Algorithms. This paper has proposed enhanced small parsimony algorithm to give better score based on number of evolutionary changes needed to produce the observed sequence changes tree and also give the ancestor of the given input.

Keywords: Phylogenetic Analysis, Small Parsimony, EnhancedFitch Algorithm, Enhanced Sakoff Algorithm.

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Authors: Shih-Pin Chen, Shih-Syuan You

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Fuzzy regression models are useful for investigating the relationship between explanatory variables and responses in fuzzy environments. To overcome the deficiencies of previous models and increase the explanatory power of fuzzy data, the graded mean integration (GMI) representation is applied to determine representative crisp regression coefficients. A fuzzy regression model is constructed based on the modified dissemblance index (MDI), which can precisely measure the actual total error. Compared with previous studies based on the proposed MDI and distance criterion, the results from commonly used test examples show that the proposed fuzzy linear regression model has higher explanatory power and forecasting accuracy.

Keywords: Dissemblance index, fuzzy linear regression, graded mean integration, mathematical programming.

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Authors: Arafat A. A. Shabaneh

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Harsh environments require developed detection by an optical communication system to ensure a high level of security and safety. Fiber Bragg gratings (FBGs) are emerging sensing instruments that respond to variations in strain and temperature by varying wavelengths. In this study, a cascaded uniform FBG is designed as a strain sensor for 6 km length at 1550 nm wavelength with 30 °C temperature by analyzing dynamic strain and wavelength shifts. The FBG is placed in a small segment of an optical fiber that reflects light with a specific wavelength and passes on the remaining wavelengths. Consequently, periodic alteration occurs in the refractive index in the fiber core. The alteration in the modal index of the fiber is produced by strain effects on a Bragg wavelength. When the developed sensor is exposed to the strain (0.01) of the cascaded uniform FBG, the wavelength shifts by 0.0000144383 μm. The sensing accuracy of the developed sensor is 0.0012. Simulation results show the reliability and effectiveness of the strain monitoring sensor for remote sensing application.

Keywords: Remote sensing, cascaded fiber Bragg grating, strain sensor, wavelength shift.

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Authors: Samir Avdakovic, Amir Nuhanovic

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Low frequency power oscillations may be triggered by many events in the system. Most oscillations are damped by the system, but undamped oscillations can lead to system collapse. Oscillations develop as a result of rotor acceleration/deceleration following a change in active power transfer from a generator. Like the operations limits, the monitoring of power system oscillating modes is a relevant aspect of power system operation and control. Unprevented low-frequency power swings can be cause of cascading outages that can rapidly extend effect on wide region. On this regard, a Wide Area Monitoring, Protection and Control Systems (WAMPCS) help in detecting such phenomena and assess power system dynamics security. The monitoring of power system electromechanical oscillations is very important in the frame of modern power system management and control. In first part, this paper compares the different technique for identification of power system oscillations. Second part analyzes possible identification some power system dynamics behaviors Using Wide Area Monitoring Systems (WAMS) based on Phasor Measurement Units (PMUs) and wavelet technique.

Keywords: Power system oscillations, Modal analysis, Prony, Wavelet, PMU, Wide Area Monitoring System.

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Authors: Samsiah Abdul Razak, Daud Mohamad

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Molodstov-s soft sets theory was originally proposed as general mathematical tool for dealing with uncertainty problems. The matrix form has been introduced in soft set and some of its properties have been discussed. However, the formulation of soft matrix in group decision making problem only with equal importance weights of criteria, which does not show the true opinion of decision maker on each criteria. The aim of this paper is to propose a method for solving group decision making problem incorporating the importance of criteria by using soft matrices in a more objective manner. The weight of each criterion is calculated by using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method. An example of house selection process is given to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Keywords: Soft set, Soft Matrix, Soft max-min decision making (SMmDM), Analytic hierarchy process (AHP)

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Authors: Kenneth I.Eshiet, Yong Sheng

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The sand production problem has led researchers into making various attempts to understand the phenomenon. The generally accepted concept is that the occurrence of sanding is due to the in-situ stress conditions and the induced changes in stress that results in the failure of the reservoir sandstone during hydrocarbon production from wellbores. By using a hypothetical cased (perforated) well, an approach to the problem is presented here by using Finite Element numerical modelling techniques. In addition to the examination of the erosion problem, the influence of certain key parameters is studied in order to ascertain their effect on the failure and subsequent erosion process. The major variables investigated include: drawdown, perforation depth, and the erosion criterion. Also included is the determination of the optimal mud pressure for given operational and reservoir conditions. The improved understanding between parameters enables the choice of optimal values to minimize sanding during oil production.

Keywords: Equivalent Plastic Strain, Erosion, Hydrocarbon Production.

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Authors: Mojtaba Valinejadshoubi, Ashutosh Bagchi, Osama Moselhi

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Structures such as buildings, bridges, dams, wind turbines etc. need to be maintained against various factors such as deterioration, excessive loads, environment, temperature, etc. Choosing an appropriate monitoring system is important for determining any critical damage to a structure and address that to avoid any adverse consequence. Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) has emerged as an effective technique to monitor the health of the structures. SHM refers to an ongoing structural performance assessment using different kinds of sensors attached to or embedded in the structures to evaluate their integrity and safety to help engineers decide on rehabilitation measures. Ability of SHM in identifying the location and severity of structural damages by considering any changes in characteristics of the structures such as their frequency, stiffness and mode shapes helps engineers to monitor the structures and take the most effective corrective actions to maintain their safety and extend their service life. The main objective of this study is to review the overall SHM process specifically determining the natural frequency of an instrumented simply-supported concrete beam using modal testing and finite element model updating.

Keywords: Structural Health Monitoring, Natural Frequency, FFT analysis, Finite element model updating.

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Authors: Nattapong Techarattanased

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This research paper aimed to identify determinants of airline service quality on passengers’ repeated purchase of service. The population of this study was Thai passengers flying domestic flights with Thai Airways, making a total of 300 samples. These 300 samples participated in this research by answering a collection of questions by means of a questionnaire. An analysis of means score and multiple regression revealed that perceived service quality for tangible elements, reliability, responsiveness, assurance and empathy had determined repeated purchase of flight service of the passengers at a high level. Moreover, reliability and responsiveness factors could predict the passengers’ repeated purchase of flight service at the percentage of 30.6. The findings gave a signal that Thai Airways may consider a development of route network and fleet strategy as well as an establishment of aircraft and seat qualification to meet passengers’ needs and requirements. Passengers’ level of satisfaction could also be maximized by offering service value through various kinds of special deals and programs, whereas value- added pricing strategy should be considered in order to differentiate from and beat other leading airline competitors.

Keywords: Service Quality, Repeated Purchase.

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Authors: Chang Su Woo, Hyun Sung Park

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Useful lifetime evaluation of chevron rubber spring was very important in design procedure to assure the safety and reliability. It is, therefore, necessary to establish a suitable criterion for the replacement period of chevron rubber spring. In this study, we performed characteristic analysis and useful lifetime prediction of chevron rubber spring. Rubber material coefficient was obtained by curve fittings of uniaxial tension equibiaxial tension and pure shear test. Computer simulation was executed to predict and evaluate the load capacity and stiffness for chevron rubber spring. In order to useful lifetime prediction of rubber material, we carried out the compression set with heat aging test in an oven at the temperature ranging from 50°C to 100°C during a period 180 days. By using the Arrhenius plot, several useful lifetime prediction equations for rubber material was proposed.

Keywords: Chevron rubber spring, material coefficient, finite element analysis, useful lifetime prediction.

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Authors: Wenjuan Du

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The phase compensation method was proposed based on the concept of the damping torque analysis (DTA). It is a method for the design of a PSS (power system stabilizer) to suppress local-mode power oscillations in a single-machine infinite-bus power system. This paper presents the application of the phase compensation method for the design of a PSS in a multi-machine power system. The application is achieved by examining the direct damping contribution of the stabilizer to the power oscillations. By using linearized equal area criterion, a theoretical proof to the application for the PSS design is presented. Hence PSS design in the paper is an example of stable tending control by localized method.

Keywords: Phase compensation method, power system small-signal stability, power system stabilizer.

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Authors: Suma. V., T. R. Gopalakrishnan Nair

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Defect prevention is the most vital but habitually neglected facet of software quality assurance in any project. If functional at all stages of software development, it can condense the time, overheads and wherewithal entailed to engineer a high quality product. The key challenge of an IT industry is to engineer a software product with minimum post deployment defects. This effort is an analysis based on data obtained for five selected projects from leading software companies of varying software production competence. The main aim of this paper is to provide information on various methods and practices supporting defect detection and prevention leading to thriving software generation. The defect prevention technique unearths 99% of defects. Inspection is found to be an essential technique in generating ideal software generation in factories through enhanced methodologies of abetted and unaided inspection schedules. On an average 13 % to 15% of inspection and 25% - 30% of testing out of whole project effort time is required for 99% - 99.75% of defect elimination. A comparison of the end results for the five selected projects between the companies is also brought about throwing light on the possibility of a particular company to position itself with an appropriate complementary ratio of inspection testing.

Keywords: Defect Detection and Prevention, Inspections, Software Engineering, Software Process, Testing.

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Authors: Neelima Gupta, Seema Aggarwal

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Most of the biclustering/projected clustering algorithms are based either on the Euclidean distance or correlation coefficient which capture only linear relationships. However, in many applications, like gene expression data and word-document data, non linear relationships may exist between the objects. Mutual Information between two variables provides a more general criterion to investigate dependencies amongst variables. In this paper, we improve upon our previous algorithm that uses mutual information for biclustering in terms of computation time and also the type of clusters identified. The algorithm is able to find biclusters with mixed relationships and is faster than the previous one. To the best of our knowledge, none of the other existing algorithms for biclustering have used mutual information as a similarity measure. We present the experimental results on synthetic data as well as on the yeast expression data. Biclusters on the yeast data were found to be biologically and statistically significant using GO Tool Box and FuncAssociate.

Keywords: Biclustering, mutual information.

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Authors: Mohamed Abdelwahed

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The aeration process via injectors is used to combat the lack of oxygen in lakes due to eutrophication. A 3D numerical simulation of the resulting flow using a simplified model is presented. In order to generate the best dynamic in the fluid with respect to the aeration purpose, the optimization of the injectors location is considered. We propose to adapt to this problem the topological sensitivity analysis method which gives the variation of a criterion with respect to the creation of a small hole in the domain. The main idea is to derive the topological sensitivity analysis of the physical model with respect to the insertion of an injector in the fluid flow domain. We propose in this work a topological optimization algorithm based on the studied asymptotic expansion. Finally we present some numerical results, showing the efficiency of our approach

Keywords: Quasi Stokes equations, Numerical simulation, topological optimization, sensitivity analysis.

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Authors: Amir Gholami Pastaki, Ali Reza Sahab, Seyed Mehdi Sadeghi

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LSP routing is among the prominent issues in MPLS networks traffic engineering. The objective of this routing is to increase number of the accepted requests while guaranteeing the quality of service (QoS). Requested bandwidth is the most important QoS criterion that is considered in literatures, and a various number of heuristic algorithms have been presented with that regards. Many of these algorithms prevent flows through bottlenecks of the network in order to perform load balancing, which impedes optimum operation of the network. Here, a modern routing algorithm is proposed as MIRAD: having a little information of the network topology, links residual bandwidth, and any knowledge of the prospective requests it provides every request with a maximum bandwidth as well as minimum end-to-end delay via uniform load distribution across the network. Simulation results of the proposed algorithm show a better efficiency in comparison with similar algorithms.

Keywords: new generation networks, QoS, traffic engineering, MPLS, QoS based routing, LSP

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Authors: Dariush Semnani, Javad Yekrang, Hossein Ghayoor

Abstract:

Concerning the measurement of friction properties of textiles and fabrics using Kawabata Evaluation System (KES), whose output is constrained to the surface friction factor of fabric, and no other data would be generated; this research has been conducted to gain information about surface roughness regarding its surface friction factor. To assess roughness properties of light nonwovens, a 3-dimensional model of a surface has been simulated with regular sinuous waves through it as an ideal surface. A new factor was defined, namely Surface Roughness Factor, through comparing roughness properties of simulated surface and real specimens. The relation between the proposed factor and friction factor of specimens has been analyzed by regression, and results showed a meaningful correlation between them. It can be inferred that the new presented factor can be used as an acceptable criterion for evaluating the roughness properties of light nonwoven fabrics.

Keywords: Surface roughness, Nonwoven, Machine vision, Image processing.

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Authors: Frantisek Bozek, Lenka Jesonkova, Jiri Dvorak, Milos Bozek, Eduard Bakos

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The contents of nitrates and nitrites were monitored in 15 ground water resources of a selected region earmarked for the emergency supply of population. The resources have been selected on the basis of previous assessment of natural conditions and the exploitation of territory in the infiltration area as well as the surroundings of water resources. The health risk analysis carried out in relation to nitrates and nitrites, which were found to be the most serious water contaminants, proved, that 14 resources met the health standards in relation to the assessed criterion and could be included in crisis plans. Water quality of ground resources may be assessed in the same way with regard to other contaminants.

Keywords: Drinking water, health risks, methemoglobinemia, nitrates, nitrites, water pollution.

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Authors: S. Wongkoon, M. Pollar, M. Jaroensutasinee, K. Jaroensutasinee

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This study aimed at developing a forecasting model on the number of Dengue Haemorrhagic Fever (DHF) incidence in Northern Thailand using time series analysis. We developed Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) models on the data collected between 2003-2006 and then validated the models using the data collected between January-September 2007. The results showed that the regressive forecast curves were consistent with the pattern of actual values. The most suitable model was the SARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,0)12 model with a Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) of 12.2931 and a Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE) of 8.91713. The SARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,0)12 model fitting was adequate for the data with the Portmanteau statistic Q20 = 8.98644 ( x20,95= 27.5871, P>0.05). This indicated that there was no significant autocorrelation between residuals at different lag times in the SARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,0)12 model.

Keywords: Dengue, SARIMA, Time Series Analysis, Northern Thailand.

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