Search results for: Matrix of risk
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 2020

Search results for: Matrix of risk

1810 Dynamics Simulation Approach in Analyzing Pension Expenditure

Authors: Hasimah Sapiri, Anton Abdulbasah Kamil, Razman Mat Tahar, Hanafi Tumin

Abstract:

Salary risk and demographic risk have been identified as main risks in analyzing pension expenditure particularly in Defined Benefit pension plan. Therefore, public pension plan in Malaysia is studied to analyze pension expenditure due to salary and demographic risk. Through the literature review and interview session with several officers in public sector, factors affecting pension expenditure are determined. Then, the inter-relationships between these factors are analyzed through causal loop diagram. The System Dynamics model is later developed using iThink software to show how demographic and salary changes affect the pension expenditure. Then, by using actual data, the impact of different policy scenarios on pension expenditure is analyzed. It is shown that dynamics simulation model of pension expenditure is useful to evaluate the impact of changes and policy decisions on risk particularly involving demographic and salary risk.

Keywords: Demographic and Salary risk, Pension Expenditure, Public Policy, System Dynamics.

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1809 Analysis of Risk-Based Disaster Planning in Local Communities

Authors: R. A. Temah, L. A. Nkengla-Asi

Abstract:

Planning for future disasters sets the stage for a variety of activities that may trigger multiple recurring operations and expose the community to opportunities to minimize risks. Local communities are increasingly embracing the necessity for planning based on local risks, but are also significantly challenged to effectively plan and response to disasters. This research examines basic risk-based disaster planning model and compares it with advanced risk-based planning that introduces the identification and alignment of varieties of local capabilities within and out of the local community that can be pivotal to facilitate the management of local risks and cascading effects prior to a disaster. A critical review shows that the identification and alignment of capabilities can potentially enhance risk-based disaster planning. A tailored holistic approach to risk based disaster planning is pivotal to enhance collective action and a reduction in disaster collective cost.

Keywords: Capabilities, disaster planning, hazards, local community, risk-based.

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1808 A New Preconditioned AOR Method for Z-matrices

Authors: Guangbin Wang, Ning Zhang, Fuping Tan

Abstract:

In this paper, we present a preconditioned AOR-type iterative method for solving the linear systems Ax = b, where A is a Z-matrix. And give some comparison theorems to show that the rate of convergence of the preconditioned AOR-type iterative method is faster than the rate of convergence of the AOR-type iterative method.

Keywords: Z-matrix, AOR-type iterative method, precondition, comparison.

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1807 Quantification of Technology Innovation Usinga Risk-Based Framework

Authors: Gerard E. Sleefe

Abstract:

There is significant interest in achieving technology innovation through new product development activities. It is recognized, however, that traditional project management practices focused only on performance, cost, and schedule attributes, can often lead to risk mitigation strategies that limit new technology innovation. In this paper, a new approach is proposed for formally managing and quantifying technology innovation. This approach uses a risk-based framework that simultaneously optimizes innovation attributes along with traditional project management and system engineering attributes. To demonstrate the efficacy of the new riskbased approach, a comprehensive product development experiment was conducted. This experiment simultaneously managed the innovation risks and the product delivery risks through the proposed risk-based framework. Quantitative metrics for technology innovation were tracked and the experimental results indicate that the risk-based approach can simultaneously achieve both project deliverable and innovation objectives.

Keywords: innovation, risk assessment, product development, technology management.

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1806 A Structural Equation Model of Risk Perception of Rockfall for Revisit Intention

Authors: Ya-Fen Lee, Yun-Yao Chi

Abstract:

The study aims to explore the relationship between risk perception of rockfall and revisit intention using a Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) analysis. A total of 573 valid questionnaires are collected from travelers to Taroko National Park, Taiwan. The findings show the majority of travelers have the medium perception of rockfall risk, and are willing to revisit the Taroko National Park. The revisit intention to Taroko National Park is influenced by hazardous preferences, willingness-to-pay, obstruction and attraction. The risk perception has an indirect effect on revisit intention through influencing willingness-to-pay. The study results can be a reference for mitigation the rockfall disaster.

Keywords: Risk perception, rockfall, revisit intention, structural equation modeling.

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1805 Fabrication Characteristics and Mechanical Behavior of Fly Ash-Alumina Reinforced Zn-27Al Alloy Matrix Hybrid Composite Using Stir-Casting Technique

Authors: Oluwagbenga B. Fatile, Felix U. Idu, Olajide T. Sanya

Abstract:

This paper reports the viability of developing Zn-27Al alloy matrix hybrid composites reinforced with alumina, graphite and fly ash (solid waste bye product of coal in thermal power plants). This research work was aimed at developing low cost-high performance Zn-27Al matrix composite with low density. Alumina particulates (Al2O3), graphite added with 0, 2, 3, 4 and 5 wt% fly ash were utilized to prepare 10wt% reinforcing phase with Zn-27Al alloy as matrix using two-step stir casting method. Density measurement, estimated percentage porosity, tensile testing, micro hardness measurement and optical microscopy were used to assess the performance of the composites produced. The results show that the hardness, ultimate tensile strength, and percent elongation of the hybrid composites decrease with increase in fly ash content. The maximum decrease in hardness and ultimate tensile strength of 13.72% and 15.25% respectively were observed for composite grade containing 5wt% fly ash. The percentage elongation of composite sample without fly ash is 8.9% which is comparable with that of the sample containing 2wt% fly ash with percentage elongation of 8.8%. The fracture toughness of the fly ash containing composites was however superior to those of composites without fly ash with 5wt% fly ash containing composite exhibiting the highest fracture toughness. The results show that fly ash can be utilized as complementary reinforcement in ZA-27 alloy matrix composite to reduce cost.

Keywords: Fly ash, hybrid composite, mechanical behaviour, stir-cast.

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1804 Quantum Enhanced Correlation Matrix Memories via States Orthogonalisation

Authors: Mario Mastriani, Marcelo Naiouf

Abstract:

This paper introduces a Quantum Correlation Matrix Memory (QCMM) and Enhanced QCMM (EQCMM), which are useful to work with quantum memories. A version of classical Gram-Schmidt orthogonalisation process in Dirac notation (called Quantum Orthogonalisation Process: QOP) is presented to convert a non-orthonormal quantum basis, i.e., a set of non-orthonormal quantum vectors (called qudits) to an orthonormal quantum basis, i.e., a set of orthonormal quantum qudits. This work shows that it is possible to improve the performance of QCMM thanks QOP algorithm. Besides, the EQCMM algorithm has a lot of additional fields of applications, e.g.: Steganography, as a replacement Hopfield Networks, Bilevel image processing, etc. Finally, it is important to mention that the EQCMM is an extremely easy to implement in any firmware.

Keywords: Quantum Algebra, correlation matrix memory, Dirac notation, orthogonalisation.

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1803 Designing Information Systems in Education as Prerequisite for Successful Management Results

Authors: Vladimir Simovic, Matija Varga, Tonco Marusic

Abstract:

This research paper shows matrix technology models and examples of information systems in education (in the Republic of Croatia and in the Germany) in support of business, education (when learning and teaching) and e-learning. Here we researched and described the aims and objectives of the main process in education and technology, with main matrix classes of data. In this paper, we have example of matrix technology with detailed description of processes related to specific data classes in the processes of education and an example module that is support for the process: ‘Filling in the directory and the diary of work’ and ‘evaluation’. Also, on the lower level of the processes, we researched and described all activities which take place within the lower process in education. We researched and described the characteristics and functioning of modules: ‘Fill the directory and the diary of work’ and ‘evaluation’. For the analysis of the affinity between the aforementioned processes and/or sub-process we used our application model created in Visual Basic, which was based on the algorithm for analyzing the affinity between the observed processes and/or sub-processes.

Keywords: Designing, education management, information systems, matrix technology, process affinity.

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1802 Spatial Pattern and GIS-Based Model for Risk Assessment – A Case Study of Dusit District, Bangkok

Authors: Morakot Worachairungreung

Abstract:

The objectives of the research are to study patterns of fire location distribution and develop techniques of Geographic Information System application in fire risk assessment for fire planning and management. Fire risk assessment was based on two factors: the vulnerability factor such as building material types, building height, building density and capacity for mitigation factor such as accessibility by road, distance to fire station, distance to hydrants and it was obtained from four groups of stakeholders including firemen, city planners, local government officers and local residents. Factors obtained from all stakeholders were converted into Raster data of GIS and then were superimposed on the data in order to prepare fire risk map of the area showing level of fire risk ranging from high to low. The level of fire risk was obtained from weighted mean of each factor based on the stakeholders. Weighted mean for each factor was obtained by Analytical Hierarchy Analysis.

Keywords: Fire Risk Assessment, Geographic Information System: GIS, Raster Analysis and Analytical Hierarchy Analysis.

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1801 Production of Spherical Cementite within Bainitic Matrix Microstructures in High Carbon Powder Metallurgy Steels

Authors: O. Altuntaş, A. Güral

Abstract:

The hardness-microstructure relationships of spherical cementite in bainitic matrix obtained by a different heat treatment cycles carried out to high carbon powder metallurgy (P/M) steel were investigated. For this purpose, 1.5 wt.% natural graphite powder admixed in atomized iron powders and the mixed powders were compacted under 700 MPa at room temperature and then sintered at 1150 °C under a protective argon gas atmosphere. The densities of the green and sintered samples were measured via the Archimedes method. A density of 7.4 g/cm3 was obtained after sintering and a density of 94% was achieved. The sintered specimens having primary cementite plus lamellar pearlitic structures were fully quenched from 950 °C temperature and then over-tempered at 705 °C temperature for 60 minutes to produce spherical-fine cementite particles in the ferritic matrix. After by this treatment, these samples annealed at 735 °C temperature for 3 minutes were austempered at 300 °C salt bath for a period of 1 to 5 hours. As a result of this process, it could be able to produced spherical cementite particle in the bainitic matrix. This microstructure was designed to improve wear and toughness of P/M steels. The microstructures were characterized and analyzed by SEM and micro and macro hardness.

Keywords: Powder metallurgy steel, heat treatment, bainite, spherical cementite.

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1800 Some Equalities Connected with Fuzzy Soft Matrices

Authors: D. R. Jain

Abstract:

The aim of this paper is to use matrix representation of Fuzzy soft sets for proving some equalities connected with Fuzzy soft sets based on set-operations.

Keywords: Equality, Fuzzy soft matrix, Fuzzy soft sets, operations.

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1799 A Reconfigurable Processing Element for Cholesky Decomposition and Matrix Inversion

Authors: Aki Happonen, Adrian Burian, Erwin Hemming

Abstract:

Fixed-point simulation results are used for the performance measure of inverting matrices by Cholesky decomposition. The fixed-point Cholesky decomposition algorithm is implemented using a fixed-point reconfigurable processing element. The reconfigurable processing element provides all mathematical operations required by Cholesky decomposition. The fixed-point word length analysis is based on simulations using different condition numbers and different matrix sizes. Simulation results show that 16 bits word length gives sufficient performance for small matrices with low condition number. Larger matrices and higher condition numbers require more dynamic range for a fixedpoint implementation.

Keywords: Cholesky Decomposition, Fixed-point, Matrix inversion, Reconfigurable processing.

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1798 A Method for Modeling Flexible Manipulators: Transfer Matrix Method with Finite Segments

Authors: Haijie Li, Xuping Zhang

Abstract:

This paper presents a computationally efficient method for the modeling of robot manipulators with flexible links and joints. This approach combines the Discrete Time Transfer Matrix Method with the Finite Segment Method, in which the flexible links are discretized by a number of rigid segments connected by torsion springs; and the flexibility of joints are modeled by torsion springs. The proposed method avoids the global dynamics and has the advantage of modeling non-uniform manipulators. Experiments and simulations of a single-link flexible manipulator are conducted for verifying the proposed methodologies. The simulations of a three-link robot arm with links and joints flexibility are also performed.

Keywords: Flexible manipulator, transfer matrix method, linearization, finite segment method.

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1797 An LMI Approach of Robust H∞ Fuzzy State-Feedback Controller Design for HIV/AIDS Infection System with Dual Drug Dosages

Authors: Wudhichai Assawinchaichote

Abstract:

This paper examines the problem of designing robust H controllers for for HIV/AIDS infection system with dual drug dosages described by a Takagi-Sugeno (S) fuzzy model. Based on a linear matrix inequality (LMI) approach, we develop an H controller which guarantees the L2-gain of the mapping from the exogenous input noise to the regulated output to be less than some prescribed value for the system. A sufficient condition of the controller for this system is given in term of Linear Matrix Inequalities (LMIs). The effectiveness of the proposed controller design methodology is finally demonstrated through simulation results. It has been shown that the anti-HIV vaccines are critically important in reducing the infected cells.

Keywords: H∞ Fuzzy control; Takagi-Sugeno (TS) fuzzy model; Linear Matrix Inequalities (LMIs); HIV/AIDS infection system

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1796 Design for Safety: Safety Consideration in Planning and Design of Airport Airsides

Authors: Maithem Al-Saadi, Min An

Abstract:

During airport planning and design stages, the major issues of capacity and safety in construction and operation of an airport need to be taken into consideration. The airside of an airport is a major and critical infrastructure that usually consists of runway(s), taxiway system, and apron(s) etc., which have to be designed according to the international standards and recommendations, and local limitations to accommodate the forecasted demands. However, in many cases, airport airsides are suffering from unexpected risks that occurred during airport operations. Therefore, safety risk assessment should be applied in the planning and design of airsides to cope with the probability of risks and their consequences, and to make decisions to reduce the risks to as low as reasonably practicable (ALARP) based on safety risk assessment. This paper presents a combination approach of Failure Modes, Effect, and Criticality Analysis (FMECA), Fuzzy Reasoning Approach (FRA), and Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP) to develop a risk analysis model for safety risk assessment. An illustrated example is used to the demonstrate risk assessment process on how the design of an airside in an airport can be analysed by using the proposed safety design risk assessment model.

Keywords: Airport airside planning and design, design for safety, fuzzy reasoning approach, fuzzy AHP, risk assessment.

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1795 Multi-Hazard Risk Assessment and Management in Tourism Industry- A Case Study from the Island of Taiwan

Authors: Chung-Hung Tsai

Abstract:

Global environmental changes lead to increased frequency and scale of natural disaster, Taiwan is under the influence of global warming and extreme weather. Therefore, the vulnerability was increased and variability and complexity of disasters is relatively enhanced. The purpose of this study is to consider the source and magnitude of hazard characteristics on the tourism industry. Using modern risk management concepts, integration of related domestic and international basic research, this goes beyond the Taiwan typhoon disaster risk assessment model and evaluation of loss. This loss evaluation index system considers the impact of extreme weather, in particular heavy rain on the tourism industry in Taiwan. Consider the extreme climate of the compound impact of disaster for the tourism industry; we try to make multi-hazard risk assessment model, strategies and suggestions. Related risk analysis results are expected to provide government department, the tourism industry asset owners, insurance companies and banking include tourist disaster risk necessary information to help its tourism industry for effective natural disaster risk management.

Keywords: Tourism industry, extreme weather, multi-hazard, vulnerability analysis, loss exceeding probability, risk management.

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1794 Analysis of Factors Used by Farmers to Manage Risk: A Case Study on Italian Farms

Authors: A. Pontrandolfi, G. Enjolras, F. Capitanio

Abstract:

The study analyses the strategies Italian farmers use to cope with the risks that face their production. We specifically explore the potential and the limitations of the economic tools for climatic risk management in agriculture of the Common Agricultural Policy 2014-2020, that foresees contributions for economic tools for risk management, in relation to farms’ needs, exposure and vulnerability of agricultural areas to climatic risk. We consider at the farm level approaches to hedge risks in terms of the use of technical tools (agricultural practices, pesticides, fertilizers, irrigation) and economic/financial instruments (insurances, etc.). We develop cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses as well as analyses of correlation that underline the main differences between the way farms adapt their structure and management towards risk. The results show a preference for technical tools, despite the presence of important public aids on economic tools such as insurances. Therefore, there is a strong need for a more effective and integrated risk management policy scheme. Synergies between economic tools and risk reduction actions of a more technical, structural and management nature (production diversification, irrigation infrastructures, technological and management innovations and formation-information-consultancy, etc.) are emphasized.

Keywords: Agriculture and climate change, climatic risk management, insurance schemes.

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1793 Airport Investment Risk Assessment under Uncertainty

Authors: Elena M. Capitanul, Carlos A. Nunes Cosenza, Walid El Moudani, Felix Mora Camino

Abstract:

The construction of a new airport or the extension of an existing one requires massive investments and many times public private partnerships were considered in order to make feasible such projects. One characteristic of these projects is uncertainty with respect to financial and environmental impacts on the medium to long term. Another one is the multistage nature of these types of projects. While many airport development projects have been a success, some others have turned into a nightmare for their promoters. This communication puts forward a new approach for airport investment risk assessment. The approach takes explicitly into account the degree of uncertainty in activity levels prediction and proposes milestones for the different stages of the project for minimizing risk. Uncertainty is represented through fuzzy dual theory and risk management is performed using dynamic programming. An illustration of the proposed approach is provided.

Keywords: Airports, fuzzy logic, risk, uncertainty.

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1792 Systemic Approach to Risk Measurement of Drainage Systems in Urban Areas

Authors: Jadwiga Królikowska, Andrzej Królikowski, Jarosław Bajer

Abstract:

The work delineates the threats of maladjustment of the capacity of rain canals, designed and built in the early 20th century, in connection to heavy rainfall, especially in summer. This is the cause of the so called 'urban floods.' It directly relates to fierce raise of paving in the cities. Resolving this problem requires a change in philosophy of draining the rainfall by wider use of retention, infiltration and usage of rainwater.

In systemic approach to managing the safety of urban drainage systems the risk, which is directly connected to safety failures, has been accepted as a measure. The risk level defines the probability of occurrence of losses greater than the ones forecast for a given time frame. The procedure of risk modelling, enabling its numeric analysis by using appropriate weights, is a significant issue in this paper.

Keywords: Drainage system, urban areas, risk measurement.

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1791 Food Safety and Perceived Risk: A Case Study of Khao San Road, Bangkok, Thailand

Authors: Siripen Yiamjanya, Kevin Wongleedee

Abstract:

Food safety is an important concern for holiday makers in foreign and unfamiliar tourist destinations. In fact, risk from food in these tourist destinations has an influence on tourist perception. This risk can potentially affect physical health and lead to an inability to pursue planned activities. The objective of this paper was to compare foreign tourists- demographics including gender, age and education level, with the level of perceived risk towards food safety. A total of 222 foreign tourists during their stay at Khao San Road in Bangkok were used as the sample. Independent- samples ttest, analysis of variance, and Least Significant Difference or LSD post hoc test were utilized. The findings revealed that there were few demographic differences in level of perceived risk among the foreign tourists. The post hoc test indicated a significant difference among the old and the young tourists, and between the higher and lower level of education. Ranks of tourists- perceived risk towards food safety unveiled some interesting results. Tourists- perceived risk of food safety in established restaurants can be ranked as i) cleanliness of dining utensils, ii) sanitation of food preparation area, and iii) cleanliness of food seasoning and ingredients. Whereas, the tourists- perceived risk of food safety in street food and drink can be ranked as i) cleanliness of stalls and pushcarts, ii) cleanliness of food sold, and iii) personal hygiene of street food hawkers or vendors.

Keywords: Food Safety, Foreign Tourists, Perceived Risk, Khao San Road.

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1790 Modeling the Impact of Controls on Information System Risks

Authors: M. Ndaw, G. Mendy, S. Ouya

Abstract:

Information system risk management helps to reduce or eliminate risk by implementing appropriate controls. In this paper, we propose a quantification model of controls impact on information system risks by automatizing the residual criticality estimation step of FMECA which is based on a inductive reasoning. For this, we defined three equations based on type and maturity of controls. For testing, the values obtained with the model were compared to estimated values given by interlocutors during different working sessions and the result is satisfactory. This model allows an optimal assessment of controls maturity and facilitates risk analysis of information system.

Keywords: Information System, Risk, Control, FMECA.

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1789 Load Flow Analysis: An Overview

Authors: P. S. Bhowmik, D. V. Rajan, S. P. Bose

Abstract:

The load flow study in a power system constitutes a study of paramount importance. The study reveals the electrical performance and power flows (real and reactive) for specified condition when the system is operating under steady state. This paper gives an overview of different techniques used for load flow study under different specified conditions.

Keywords: Load Flow Studies, Y-matrix and Z-matrix iteration, Newton-Raphson method, Fast Decoupled method, Fuzzy logic, Artificial Neural Network.

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1788 Characterization of Fabricated A 384.1-MgO Based Metal Matrix Composite and Optimization of Tensile Strength using Taguchi Techniques

Authors: Nripjit, Anand K Tyagi, Nirmal Singh

Abstract:

The present work consecutively on synthesis and characterization of composites, Al/Al alloy A 384.1 as matrix in which the main ingredient as Al/Al-5% MgO alloy based metal matrix composite. As practical implications the low cost processing route for the fabrication of Al alloy A 384.1 and operational difficulties of presently available manufacturing processes based in liquid manipulation methods. As all new developments, complete understanding of the influence of processing variables upon the final quality of the product. And the composite is applied comprehensively to the acquaintance for achieving superiority of information concerning the specific heat measurement of a material through the aid of thermographs. Products are evaluated concerning relative particle size and mechanical behavior under tensile strength. Furthermore, Taguchi technique was employed to examine the experimental optimum results are achieved, owing to effectiveness of this approach.

Keywords: MMC, Thermographs, Tensile strength, Taguchi technique, Optimal parameters

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1787 Decoder Design for a New Single Error Correcting/Double Error Detecting Code

Authors: M. T. Anwar, P. K. Lala, P. Thenappan

Abstract:

This paper presents the decoder design for the single error correcting and double error detecting code proposed by the authors in an earlier paper. The speed of error detection and correction of a code is largely dependent upon the associated encoder and decoder circuits. The complexity and the speed of such circuits are determined by the number of 1?s in the parity check matrix (PCM). The number of 1?s in the parity check matrix for the code proposed by the authors are fewer than in any currently known single error correcting/double error detecting code. This results in simplified encoding and decoding circuitry for error detection and correction.

Keywords: Decoder, Hsiao code, Parity Check Matrix, Syndrome Pattern.

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1786 Financial Portfolio Optimization in Turkish Electricity Market via Value at Risk

Authors: F. Gökgöz, M. E. Atmaca

Abstract:

Electricity has an indispensable role in human daily life, technological development and economy. It is a special product or service that should be instantaneously generated and consumed. Sources of the world are limited so that effective and efficient use of them is very important not only for human life and environment but also for technological and economic development. Competitive electricity market is one of the important way that provides suitable platform for effective and efficient use of electricity. Besides benefits, it brings along some risks that should be carefully managed by a market player like Electricity Generation Company. Risk management is an essential part in market players’ decision making. In this paper, risk management through diversification is applied with the help of Value at Risk methods for case studies. Performance of optimal electricity sale solutions are measured and the portfolio performance has been evaluated via Sharpe-Ratio, and compared with conventional approach. Biennial historical electricity price data of Turkish Day Ahead Market are used to demonstrate the approach.

Keywords: Electricity market, portfolio optimization, risk management, Sharpe ratio, value at risk.

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1785 A New Heuristic Approach for the Large-Scale Generalized Assignment Problem

Authors: S. Raja Balachandar, K.Kannan

Abstract:

This paper presents a heuristic approach to solve the Generalized Assignment Problem (GAP) which is NP-hard. It is worth mentioning that many researches used to develop algorithms for identifying the redundant constraints and variables in linear programming model. Some of the algorithms are presented using intercept matrix of the constraints to identify redundant constraints and variables prior to the start of the solution process. Here a new heuristic approach based on the dominance property of the intercept matrix to find optimal or near optimal solution of the GAP is proposed. In this heuristic, redundant variables of the GAP are identified by applying the dominance property of the intercept matrix repeatedly. This heuristic approach is tested for 90 benchmark problems of sizes upto 4000, taken from OR-library and the results are compared with optimum solutions. Computational complexity is proved to be O(mn2) of solving GAP using this approach. The performance of our heuristic is compared with the best state-ofthe- art heuristic algorithms with respect to both the quality of the solutions. The encouraging results especially for relatively large size test problems indicate that this heuristic approach can successfully be used for finding good solutions for highly constrained NP-hard problems.

Keywords: Combinatorial Optimization Problem, Generalized Assignment Problem, Intercept Matrix, Heuristic, Computational Complexity, NP-Hard Problems.

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1784 A Socio-Technical Approach to Cyber-Risk Assessment

Authors: Kitty Kioskli, Nineta Polemi

Abstract:

Evaluating the levels of cyber-security risks within an enterprise is most important in protecting its information system, services and all its digital assets against security incidents (e.g. accidents, malicious acts, massive cyber-attacks). The existing risk assessment methodologies (e.g. eBIOS, OCTAVE, CRAMM, NIST-800) adopt a technical approach considering as attack factors only the capability, intention and target of the attacker, and not paying attention to the attacker’s psychological profile and personality traits. In this paper, a socio-technical approach is proposed in cyber risk assessment, in order to achieve more realistic risk estimates by considering the personality traits of the attackers. In particular, based upon principles from investigative psychology and behavioural science, a multi-dimensional, extended, quantifiable model for an attacker’s profile is developed, which becomes an additional factor in the cyber risk level calculation.

Keywords: Attacker, behavioural models, cyber risk assessment, cyber-security, human factors, investigative psychology, ISO27001, ISO27005.

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1783 A Contribution to the Polynomial Eigen Problem

Authors: Malika Yaici, Kamel Hariche, Tim Clarke

Abstract:

The relationship between eigenstructure (eigenvalues and eigenvectors) and latent structure (latent roots and latent vectors) is established. In control theory eigenstructure is associated with the state space description of a dynamic multi-variable system and a latent structure is associated with its matrix fraction description. Beginning with block controller and block observer state space forms and moving on to any general state space form, we develop the identities that relate eigenvectors and latent vectors in either direction. Numerical examples illustrate this result. A brief discussion of the potential of these identities in linear control system design follows. Additionally, we present a consequent result: a quick and easy method to solve the polynomial eigenvalue problem for regular matrix polynomials.

Keywords: Eigenvalues/Eigenvectors, Latent values/vectors, Matrix fraction description, State space description.

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1782 Understanding Narrative Transformations of Ebola in Negotiations of Epidemic Risk

Authors: N. W. Paul, M. Banerjee

Abstract:

Discussing the nexus between global health policy and local practices, this article addresses the recent Ebola outbreak as a role model for narrative co-constructions of epidemic risk. We will demonstrate in how far a theory-driven and methodologically rooted analysis of narrativity can help to improve mechanisms of prevention and intervention whenever epidemic risk needs to be addressed locally in order to contribute to global health. Analyzing the narrative transformation of Ebola, we will also address issues of transcultural problem-solving and of normative questions at stake. In this regard, we seek to contribute to a better understanding of a key question of global health and justice as well as to the underlying ethical questions. By highlighting and analyzing the functions of narratives, this paper provides a translational approach to refine our practices by which we address epidemic risk, be it on the national, the transnational or the global scale.

Keywords: Ebola, Epidemic Risk, Medical Ethics, Medical Humanities.

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1781 Comparison and Characterization of Dyneema™ HB-210 and HB-212 for Accelerated UV Aging

Authors: Jonmichael A. Weaver, David A. Miller

Abstract:

Ultra High Molecular Weight Polyethylene (UHMWPE) presents several distinct advantages as a material with a high strength to weight ratio, durability, and neutron stability. Understanding the change in the mechanical performance of UHMWPE due to environmental exposure is key to safety for future applications. Dyneema® HB-210, a 15 µm diameter UHMWPE multi-filament fiber laid up in a polyurethane matrix in [0/ 90]2, with a thickness of 0.17 mm is compared to the same fiber and orientation system, HB-212, with a rubber-based matrix under UV aging conditions. UV aging tests according to ASTM-G154 were performed on both HB-210 and HB-212 to interrogate the change in mechanical properties, as measured through dynamic mechanical analysis and imaged using a scanning electron microscope. These results showed a decrease in both the storage modulus and loss modulus of the aged material compared to the unaged, even though the tan δ slightly increased. Material degradation occurred at a higher rate in Dyneema® HB-212 compared to HB-210. The HB-210 was characterized for the effects of 100 hours of UV aging via dynamic mechanical analysis. Scanning electron microscope images were taken of the HB-210 and HB-212 to identify the primary damage mechanisms in the matrix. Embrittlement and matrix spall were the products of prolonged UV exposure and erosion, resulting in decreased mechanical properties.

Keywords: Composite materials, material characterization, UV aging, UHMWPE.

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