Search results for: Mathematical Regression

Authors: L. Basha, E. Gjika

Abstract:

This study is focused on analyzing climate change in Albania and its potential effects on cereal yields. Initially, monthly temperature and rainfalls in Albania were studied for the period 1960-2021. Climacteric variables are important variables when trying to model cereal yield behavior, especially when significant changes in weather conditions are observed. For this purpose, in the second part of the study, linear and nonlinear models explaining cereal yield are constructed for the same period, 1960-2021. The multiple linear regression analysis and lasso regression method are applied to the data between cereal yield and each independent variable: average temperature, average rainfall, fertilizer consumption, arable land, land under cereal production, and nitrous oxide emissions. In our regression model, heteroscedasticity is not observed, data follow a normal distribution, and there is a low correlation between factors, so we do not have the problem of multicollinearity. Machine learning methods, such as Random Forest (RF), are used to predict cereal yield responses to climacteric and other variables. RF showed high accuracy compared to the other statistical models in the prediction of cereal yield. We found that changes in average temperature negatively affect cereal yield. The coefficients of fertilizer consumption, arable land, and land under cereal production are positively affecting production. Our results show that the RF method is an effective and versatile machine-learning method for cereal yield prediction compared to the other two methods: multiple linear regression and lasso regression method.

Keywords: Cereal yield, climate change, machine learning, multiple regression model, random forest.

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Authors: M.A. Kamely, S.M. Kamil, C.W. Chong

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A mathematical model of the surface roughness has been developed by using response surface methodology (RSM) in grinding of AISI D2 cold work tool steels. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) was used to check the validity of the model. Low and high value for work speed and feed rate are decided from design of experiment. The influences of all machining parameters on surface roughness have been analyzed based on the developed mathematical model. The developed prediction equation shows that both the feed rate and work speed are the most important factor that influences the surface roughness. The surface roughness was found to be the lowers with the used of low feed rate and low work speed. Accuracy of the best model was proved with the testing data.

Keywords: Mathematical Modeling, Response surfacemethodology, Surface roughness, Cylindrical Grinding.

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Authors: M. Mokhtar, A. Shuib, D. Mohamad

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Portfolio optimization problem has received a lot of attention from both researchers and practitioners over the last six decades. This paper provides an overview of the current state of research in portfolio optimization with the support of mathematical programming techniques. On top of that, this paper also surveys the solution algorithms for solving portfolio optimization models classifying them according to their nature in heuristic and exact methods. To serve these purposes, 40 related articles appearing in the international journal from 2003 to 2013 have been gathered and analyzed. Based on the literature review, it has been observed that stochastic programming and goal programming constitute the highest number of mathematical programming techniques employed to tackle the portfolio optimization problem. It is hoped that the paper can meet the needs of researchers and practitioners for easy references of portfolio optimization.

Keywords: Portfolio optimization, Mathematical programming, Multi-objective programming, Solution approaches.

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Authors: Youngji Yoo, Cheong-Sool Park, Jun Seok Kim, Young-Hak Lee, Sung-Shick Kim, Jun-Geol Baek

Abstract:

In the semiconductor manufacturing process, large amounts of data are collected from various sensors of multiple facilities. The collected data from sensors have several different characteristics due to variables such as types of products, former processes and recipes. In general, Statistical Quality Control (SQC) methods assume the normality of the data to detect out-of-control states of processes. Although the collected data have different characteristics, using the data as inputs of SQC will increase variations of data, require wide control limits, and decrease performance to detect outof- control. Therefore, it is necessary to separate similar data groups from mixed data for more accurate process control. In the paper, we propose a regression tree using split algorithm based on Pearson distribution to handle non-normal distribution in parametric method. The regression tree finds similar properties of data from different variables. The experiments using real semiconductor manufacturing process data show improved performance in fault detecting ability.

Keywords: Semiconductor, non-normal mixed process data, clustering, Statistical Quality Control (SQC), regression tree, Pearson distribution system.

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Authors: Florin Leon, Silvia Curteanu

Abstract:

Developing complete mechanistic models for polymerization reactors is not easy, because complex reactions occur simultaneously; there is a large number of kinetic parameters involved and sometimes the chemical and physical phenomena for mixtures involving polymers are poorly understood. To overcome these difficulties, empirical models based on sampled data can be used instead, namely regression methods typical of machine learning field. They have the ability to learn the trends of a process without any knowledge about its particular physical and chemical laws. Therefore, they are useful for modeling complex processes, such as the free radical polymerization of methyl methacrylate achieved in a batch bulk process. The goal is to generate accurate predictions of monomer conversion, numerical average molecular weight and gravimetrical average molecular weight. This process is associated with non-linear gel and glass effects. For this purpose, an adaptive sampling technique is presented, which can select more samples around the regions where the values have a higher variation. Several machine learning methods are used for the modeling and their performance is compared: support vector machines, k-nearest neighbor, k-nearest neighbor and random forest, as well as an original algorithm, large margin nearest neighbor regression. The suggested method provides very good results compared to the other well-known regression algorithms.

Keywords: Adaptive sampling, batch bulk methyl methacrylate polymerization, large margin nearest neighbor regression, machine learning.

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Authors: Dibyendu Ghoshal, Pinaki Pratim Acharjya

Abstract:

Image segmentation process based on mathematical morphology has been studied in the paper. It has been established from the first principles of the morphological process, the entire segmentation is although a nonlinear signal processing task, the constituent wise, the intermediate steps are linear, bilinear and conformal transformation and they give rise to a non linear affect in a cumulative manner.

Keywords: Image segmentation, linear transform, bilinear transform, conformal transform, mathematical morphology.

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Authors: M. B. El_Mashade, I. I. Mahamoud, M. S. El_Tokhy

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Improving the performance of the QCL through block diagram as well as mathematical models is the main scope of this paper. In order to enhance the performance of the underlined device, the mathematical model parameters are used in a reliable manner in such a way that the optimum behavior was achieved. These parameters play the central role in specifying the optical characteristics of the considered laser source. Moreover, it is important to have a large amount of radiated power, where increasing the amount of radiated power represents the main hopping process that can be predicted from the behavior of quantum laser devices. It was found that there is a good agreement between the calculated values from our mathematical model and those obtained with VisSim and experimental results. These demonstrate the strength of mplementation of both mathematical and block diagram models.

Keywords: Quantum Cascaded Lasers (QCLs), Modeling, Block Diagram Programming, Intersubband transitions

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Authors: S. Sowmyayani

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The advancement of computer-aided design helps the medical force and security force. Some applications include biometric recognition, elderly fall detection, face recognition, cancer recognition, tumor recognition, etc. This paper deals with different machine learning algorithms that are more generically used for any health care system. The most focused problems are classification and regression. With the rise of big data, machine learning has become particularly important for solving problems. Machine learning uses two types of techniques: supervised learning and unsupervised learning. The former trains a model on known input and output data and predicts future outputs. Classification and regression are supervised learning techniques. Unsupervised learning finds hidden patterns in input data. Clustering is one such unsupervised learning technique. The above-mentioned models are discussed briefly in this paper.

Keywords: Supervised learning, unsupervised learning, regression, neural network.

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Authors: Gilbert Makanda, Roelf Sypkens

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A mathematical model for knowledge acquisition in teaching and learning is proposed. In this study we adopt the mathematical model that is normally used for disease modelling into teaching and learning. We derive mathematical conditions which facilitate knowledge acquisition. This study compares the effects of dropping out of the course at early stages with later stages of learning. The study also investigates effect of individual interaction and learning from other sources to facilitate learning. The study fits actual data to a general mathematical model using Matlab ODE45 and lsqnonlin to obtain a unique mathematical model that can be used to predict knowledge acquisition. The data used in this study was obtained from the tutorial test results for mathematics 2 students from the Central University of Technology, Free State, South Africa in the department of Mathematical and Physical Sciences. The study confirms already known results that increasing dropout rates and forgetting taught concepts reduce the population of knowledgeable students. Increasing teaching contacts and access to other learning materials facilitate knowledge acquisition. The effect of increasing dropout rates is more enhanced in the later stages of learning than earlier stages. The study opens up a new direction in further investigations in teaching and learning using differential equations.

Keywords: Differential equations, knowledge acquisition, least squares nonlinear, dynamical systems.

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Authors: Surinder Deswal

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The paper investigates the potential of support vector machines and Gaussian process based regression approaches to model the oxygen–transfer capacity from experimental data of multiple plunging jets oxygenation systems. The results suggest the utility of both the modeling techniques in the prediction of the overall volumetric oxygen transfer coefficient (KLa) from operational parameters of multiple plunging jets oxygenation system. The correlation coefficient root mean square error and coefficient of determination values of 0.971, 0.002 and 0.945 respectively were achieved by support vector machine in comparison to values of 0.960, 0.002 and 0.920 respectively achieved by Gaussian process regression. Further, the performances of both these regression approaches in predicting the overall volumetric oxygen transfer coefficient was compared with the empirical relationship for multiple plunging jets. A comparison of results suggests that support vector machines approach works well in comparison to both empirical relationship and Gaussian process approaches, and could successfully be employed in modeling oxygen-transfer.

Keywords: Oxygen-transfer, multiple plunging jets, support vector machines, Gaussian process.

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Authors: Anjali Chatterjee, Nirmal Kumar Roy

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Economically transformers constitute one of the largest investments in a Power system. For this reason, transformer condition assessment and management is a high priority task. If a transformer fails, it would have a significant negative impact on revenue and service reliability. Monitoring the state of health of power transformers has traditionally been carried out using laboratory Dissolved Gas Analysis (DGA) tests performed at periodic intervals on the oil sample, collected from the transformers. DGA of transformer oil is the single best indicator of a transformer-s overall condition and is a universal practice today, which started somewhere in the 1960s. Failure can occur in a transformer due to different reasons. Some failures can be limited or prevented by maintenance. Oil filtration is one of the methods to remove the dissolve gases and prevent the deterioration of the oil. In this paper we analysis the DGA data by regression method and predict the gas concentration in the oil in the future. We bring about a comparative study of different traditional methods of regression and the errors generated out of their predictions. With the help of these data we can deduce the health of the transformer by finding the type of fault if it has occurred or will occur in future. Additional in this paper effect of filtration on the transformer health is highlight by calculating the probability of failure of a transformer with and without oil filtrating.

Keywords: Power Transformers, Dissolve gas Analysis, Regression method, Filtration, oil.

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Authors: M. Moeinaddini, Z. Asadi-Shekari, M. Zaly Shah, A. Hamzah

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Currently, planners try to have more green travel options to decrease economic, social and environmental problems. Therefore, this study tries to find significant urban travel factors to be used to increase the usage of alternative urban travel modes. This paper attempts to identify the relationship between prominent urban mobility indicators and daily trips by public transport in 30 cities from various parts of the world. Different travel modes, infrastructures and cost indicators were evaluated in this research as mobility indicators. The results of multi-linear regression analysis indicate that there is a significant relationship between mobility indicators and the daily usage of public transport.

Keywords: Green travel modes, urban travel indicators, daily trips by public transport, multi-linear regression analysis.

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Authors: Encarnación Álvarez, Rosa M. García-Fernández, Juan F. Muñoz

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Estimation of a proportion has many applications in economics and social studies. A common application is the estimation of the low income proportion, which gives the proportion of people classified as poor into a population. In this paper, we present this poverty indicator and propose to use the logistic regression estimator for the problem of estimating the low income proportion. Various sampling designs are presented. Assuming a real data set obtained from the European Survey on Income and Living Conditions, Monte Carlo simulation studies are carried out to analyze the empirical performance of the logistic regression estimator under the various sampling designs considered in this paper. Results derived from Monte Carlo simulation studies indicate that the logistic regression estimator can be more accurate than the customary estimator under the various sampling designs considered in this paper. The stratified sampling design can also provide more accurate results.

Keywords:

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Authors: Kamel Hashem, Ibrahim Arman

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Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) in mathematical education is a very active field of research and innovation, where learning is understood to be meaningful and grasping multiple linked representation rather than rote memorization, a great amount of literature offering a wide range of theories, learning approaches, methodologies and interpretations, are generally stressing the potentialities for teaching and learning using ICT. Despite the utilization of new learning approaches with ICT, students experience difficulties in learning concepts relevant to understanding mathematics, much remains unclear about the relationship between the computer environment, the activities it might support, and the knowledge that might emerge from such activities. Many questions that might arise in this regard: to what extent does the use of ICT help students in the process of understanding and solving tasks or problems? Is it possible to identify what aspects or features of students' mathematical learning can be enhanced by the use of technology? This paper will highlight the interest of the integration of information and communication technologies (ICT) into the teaching and learning of mathematics (quadratic functions), it aims to investigate the effect of four instructional methods on students- mathematical understanding and problem solving. Quantitative and qualitative methods are used to report about 43 students in middle school. Results showed that mathematical thinking and problem solving evolves as students engage with ICT activities and learn cooperatively.

Keywords: Dynamic Geometry Software, Information and Communication Technologies, Visualization, Mathematical Education.

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Authors: Dileep Kumar Gupta, Rajendra Prasad, Pradeep Kumar, Varun Narayan Mishra, Ajeet Kumar Vishwakarma, Prashant Kumar Srivastava

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An approach was evaluated for the retrieval of soil moisture of bare soil surface using bistatic scatterometer data in the angular range of 200 to 700 at VV- and HH- polarization. The microwave data was acquired by specially designed X-band (10 GHz) bistatic scatterometer. The linear regression analysis was done between scattering coefficients and soil moisture content to select the suitable incidence angle for retrieval of soil moisture content. The 250 incidence angle was found more suitable. The support vector regression analysis was used to approximate the function described by the input output relationship between the scattering coefficient and corresponding measured values of the soil moisture content. The performance of support vector regression algorithm was evaluated by comparing the observed and the estimated soil moisture content by statistical performance indices %Bias, root mean squared error (RMSE) and Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE). The values of %Bias, root mean squared error (RMSE) and Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) were found 2.9451, 1.0986 and 0.9214 respectively at HHpolarization. At VV- polarization, the values of %Bias, root mean squared error (RMSE) and Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) were found 3.6186, 0.9373 and 0.9428 respectively.

Keywords: Bistatic scatterometer, soil moisture, support vector regression, RMSE, %Bias, NSE.

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Authors: Alexander N. Savostyanov, Tatiana A. Dolgorukova, Elena A. Esipenko, Mikhail S. Zaleshin, Margherita Malanchini, Anna V. Budakova, Alexander E. Saprygin, Tatiana A. Golovko, Yulia V. Kovas

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EEG correlates of mathematical and trait anxiety level were studied in 52 healthy Russian-speakers during execution of error-recognition tasks with lexical, arithmetic and algebraic conditions. Event-related spectral perturbations were used as a measure of brain activity. The ERSP plots revealed alpha/beta desynchronizations within a 500-3000 ms interval after task onset and slow-wave synchronization within an interval of 150-350 ms. Amplitudes of these intervals reflected the accuracy of error recognition, and were differently associated with the three conditions. The correlates of anxiety were found in theta (4-8 Hz) and beta2 (16- 20 Hz) frequency bands. In theta band the effects of mathematical anxiety were stronger expressed in lexical, than in arithmetic and algebraic condition. The mathematical anxiety effects in theta band were associated with differences between anterior and posterior cortical areas, whereas the effects of trait anxiety were associated with inter-hemispherical differences. In beta1 and beta2 bands effects of trait and mathematical anxiety were directed oppositely. The trait anxiety was associated with increase of amplitude of desynchronization, whereas the mathematical anxiety was associated with decrease of this amplitude. The effect of mathematical anxiety in beta2 band was insignificant for lexical condition but was the strongest in algebraic condition. EEG correlates of anxiety in theta band could be interpreted as indexes of task emotionality, whereas the reaction in beta2 band is related to tension of intellectual resources.

Keywords: EEG, brain activity, lexical and numerical error-recognition tasks, mathematical and trait anxiety.

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Authors: Autcha Araveeporn

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The Random Coefficient Dynamic Regression (RCDR) model is to developed from Random Coefficient Autoregressive (RCA) model and Autoregressive (AR) model. The RCDR model is considered by adding exogenous variables to RCA model. In this paper, the concept of the Maximum Likelihood (ML) method is used to estimate the parameter of RCDR(1,1) model. Simulation results have shown the AIC and BIC criterion to compare the performance of the the RCDR(1,1) model. The variables as the stationary and weakly stationary data are good estimates where the exogenous variables are weakly stationary. However, the model selection indicated that variables are nonstationarity data based on the stationary data of the exogenous variables.

Keywords: Autoregressive, Maximum Likelihood Method, Nonstationarity, Random Coefficient Dynamic Regression, Stationary.

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Authors: Manfred Hartmann, Andreas Graef, Hannes Perko, Christoph Baumgartner, Tilmann Kluge

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In this paper we introduce a novel method for the characterization of synchronziation and coupling effects in multivariate time series that can be used for the analysis of EEG or ECoG signals recorded during epileptic seizures. The method allows to visualize the spatio-temporal evolution of synchronization and coupling effects that are characteristic for epileptic seizures. Similar to other methods proposed for this purpose our method is based on a regression analysis. However, a more general definition of the regression together with an effective channel selection procedure allows to use the method even for time series that are highly correlated, which is commonly the case in EEG/ECoG recordings with large numbers of electrodes. The method was experimentally tested on ECoG recordings of epileptic seizures from patients with temporal lobe epilepsies. A comparision with the results from a independent visual inspection by clinical experts showed an excellent agreement with the patterns obtained with the proposed method.

Keywords: EEG, epilepsy, regression analysis, seizurepropagation.

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Authors: Walaa Khalaf, Calogero Pace, Manlio Gaudioso

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We present an Electronic Nose (ENose), which is aimed at identifying the presence of one out of two gases, possibly detecting the presence of a mixture of the two. Estimation of the concentrations of the components is also performed for a volatile organic compound (VOC) constituted by methanol and acetone, for the ranges 40-400 and 22-220 ppm (parts-per-million), respectively. Our system contains 8 sensors, 5 of them being gas sensors (of the class TGS from FIGARO USA, INC., whose sensing element is a tin dioxide (SnO2) semiconductor), the remaining being a temperature sensor (LM35 from National Semiconductor Corporation), a humidity sensor (HIH–3610 from Honeywell), and a pressure sensor (XFAM from Fujikura Ltd.). Our integrated hardware–software system uses some machine learning principles and least square regression principle to identify at first a new gas sample, or a mixture, and then to estimate the concentrations. In particular we adopt a training model using the Support Vector Machine (SVM) approach with linear kernel to teach the system how discriminate among different gases. Then we apply another training model using the least square regression, to predict the concentrations. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed multiclassification and regression scheme is effective in the identification of the tested VOCs of methanol and acetone with 96.61% correctness. The concentration prediction is obtained with 0.979 and 0.964 correlation coefficient for the predicted versus real concentrations of methanol and acetone, respectively.

Keywords: Electronic nose, Least square regression, Mixture ofgases, Support Vector Machine.

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Authors: Ε. Giovanis

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In this paper we present an autoregressive model with neural networks modeling and standard error backpropagation algorithm training optimization in order to predict the gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate of four countries. Specifically we propose a kind of weighted regression, which can be used for econometric purposes, where the initial inputs are multiplied by the neural networks final optimum weights from input-hidden layer after the training process. The forecasts are compared with those of the ordinary autoregressive model and we conclude that the proposed regression-s forecasting results outperform significant those of autoregressive model in the out-of-sample period. The idea behind this approach is to propose a parametric regression with weighted variables in order to test for the statistical significance and the magnitude of the estimated autoregressive coefficients and simultaneously to estimate the forecasts.

Keywords: Autoregressive model, Error back-propagation Feed-Forward neural networks, , Gross Domestic Product

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Authors: Wei Zhang, Yao-Yu Li, Yi-Fan Zhu, Qun Li, Wei-Ping Wang

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It-s known that incorporating prior knowledge into support vector regression (SVR) can help to improve the approximation performance. Most of researches are concerned with the incorporation of knowledge in the form of numerical relationships. Little work, however, has been done to incorporate the prior knowledge on the structural relationships among the variables (referred as to Structural Prior Knowledge, SPK). This paper explores the incorporation of SPK in SVR by constructing appropriate admissible support vector kernel (SV kernel) based on the properties of reproducing kernel (R.K). Three-levels specifications of SPK are studied with the corresponding sub-levels of prior knowledge that can be considered for the method. These include Hierarchical SPK (HSPK), Interactional SPK (ISPK) consisting of independence, global and local interaction, Functional SPK (FSPK) composed of exterior-FSPK and interior-FSPK. A convenient tool for describing the SPK, namely Description Matrix of SPK is introduced. Subsequently, a new SVR, namely Motivated Support Vector Regression (MSVR) whose structure is motivated in part by SPK, is proposed. Synthetic examples show that it is possible to incorporate a wide variety of SPK and helpful to improve the approximation performance in complex cases. The benefits of MSVR are finally shown on a real-life military application, Air-toground battle simulation, which shows great potential for MSVR to the complex military applications.

Keywords: admissible support vector kernel, reproducing kernel, structural prior knowledge, motivated support vector regression

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Authors: Wei Zhang, Yao-Yu Li, Yi-Fan Zhu, Qun Li, Wei-Ping Wang

Abstract:

It-s known that incorporating prior knowledge into support vector regression (SVR) can help to improve the approximation performance. Most of researches are concerned with the incorporation of knowledge in form of numerical relationships. Little work, however, has been done to incorporate the prior knowledge on the structural relationships among the variables (referred as to Structural Prior Knowledge, SPK). This paper explores the incorporation of SPK in SVR by constructing appropriate admissible support vector kernel (SV kernel) based on the properties of reproducing kernel (R.K). Three-levels specifications of SPK are studies with the corresponding sub-levels of prior knowledge that can be considered for the method. These include Hierarchical SPK (HSPK), Interactional SPK (ISPK) consisting of independence, global and local interaction, Functional SPK (FSPK) composed of exterior-FSPK and interior-FSPK. A convenient tool for describing the SPK, namely Description Matrix of SPK is introduced. Subsequently, a new SVR, namely Motivated Support Vector Regression (MSVR) whose structure is motivated in part by SPK, is proposed. Synthetic examples show that it is possible to incorporate a wide variety of SPK and helpful to improve the approximation performance in complex cases. The benefits of MSVR are finally shown on a real-life military application, Air-toground battle simulation, which shows great potential for MSVR to the complex military applications.

Keywords: admissible support vector kernel, reproducing kernel, structural prior knowledge, motivated support vector regression

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Authors: Monjed Ezzeddinne, Nicolas Lefebvre, Régis Lengellé

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This paper presents a new version of the SVM mixture algorithm initially proposed by Kwok for classification and regression problems. For both cases, a slight modification of the mixture model leads to a standard SVM training problem, to the existence of an exact solution and allows the direct use of well known decomposition and working set selection algorithms. Only the regression case is considered in this paper but classification has been addressed in a very similar way. This method has been successfully applied to engine pollutants emission modeling.

Keywords: Identification, Learning systems, Mixture ofExperts, Support Vector Machines.

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Authors: Shahin Mirshekari, Mohammadreza Moradi, Hossein Jafari, Mehdi Jafari, Mohammad Ensaf

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This research employs Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) with an ensemble kernel, integrating Exponential Squared, Revised Matérn, and Rational Quadratic kernels to analyze pharmaceutical sales data. Bayesian optimization was used to identify optimal kernel weights: 0.76 for Exponential Squared, 0.21 for Revised Matérn, and 0.13 for Rational Quadratic. The ensemble kernel demonstrated superior performance in predictive accuracy, achieving an R² score near 1.0, and significantly lower values in MSE, MAE, and RMSE. These findings highlight the efficacy of ensemble kernels in GPR for predictive analytics in complex pharmaceutical sales datasets.

Keywords: Gaussian Process Regression, Ensemble Kernels, Bayesian Optimization, Pharmaceutical Sales Analysis, Time Series Forecasting, Data Analysis.

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Authors: Zhu Jiaming, Yu Mengna

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In this article, models based on quantitative analysis, physical geometry and regression analysis are established, by using analytic hierarchy process analysis, fuzzy cluster analysis, fuzzy photographic and data fitting. The reasons of various leaf shapes among different species and the differences between the leaf shapes on same tree have been solved by using software, such as Eviews, VB and Matlab. We also successfully estimate the leaf mass of a tree and the correlation with the tree profile.

Keywords: Leaf shape; Mass; Fuzzy cluster; Regression analysis; Eviews; Matlab

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Authors: V. S. Klimash, Ye Min Thu

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Thyristor rectifiers, inverters grid-tied, and AC voltage regulators are widely used in industry, and on electrified transport, they have a lot in common both in the power circuit and in the control system. They have a common mathematical structure and switching processes. At the same time, the rectifier, but the inverter units and thyristor regulators of alternating voltage are considered separately both theoretically and practically. They are written about in different books as completely different devices. The aim of this work is to combine them into one class based on the unity of the equations describing electromagnetic processes, and then, to show this unity on the mathematical model and experimental setup. Based on research from mathematics to the product, a conclusion is made about the methodology for the rapid conduct of research and experimental design work, preparation for production and serial production of converters with a unified bundle. In recent years, there has been a transition from thyristor circuits and transistor in modular design. Showing the example of thyristor rectifiers and AC voltage regulators, we can conclude that there is a unity of mathematical structures and grid-tied thyristor converters.

Keywords: Direct current, alternating current, rectifier, AC voltage regulator, generalized mathematical model.

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Authors: Worachat Wannawong, Usa W. HumphriesPrungchan Wongwises, Suphat Vongvisessomjai

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The mathematical modeling of storm surge in sea and coastal regions such as the South China Sea (SCS) and the Gulf of Thailand (GoT) are important to study the typhoon characteristics. The storm surge causes an inundation at a lateral boundary exhibiting in the coastal zones particularly in the GoT and some part of the SCS. The model simulations in the three dimensional primitive equations with a high resolution model are important to protect local properties and human life from the typhoon surges. In the present study, the mathematical modeling is used to simulate the typhoon–induced surges in three case studies of Typhoon Linda 1997. The results of model simulations at the tide gauge stations can describe the characteristics of storm surges at the coastal zones.

Keywords: lateral boundary, mathematical modeling, numericalsimulations, three dimensional primitive equations, storm surge.

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Authors: Troy L. Story

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Mathematical models of dynamics employing exterior calculus are mathematical representations of the same unifying principle; namely, the description of a dynamic system with a characteristic differential one-form on an odd-dimensional differentiable manifold leads, by analysis with exterior calculus, to a set of differential equations and a characteristic tangent vector (vortex vector) which define transformations of the system. Using this principle, a mathematical model for economic growth is constructed by proposing a characteristic differential one-form for economic growth dynamics (analogous to the action in Hamiltonian dynamics), then generating a pair of characteristic differential equations and solving these equations for the rate of economic growth as a function of labor and capital. By contracting the characteristic differential one-form with the vortex vector, the Lagrangian for economic growth dynamics is obtained.

Keywords: Differential geometry, exterior calculus, Hamiltonian geometry, mathematical economics.

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Authors: Yina F. Muñoz, Alexander Paz, Hanns De La Fuente-Mella, Joaquin V. Fariña, Guilherme M. Sales

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The primary approach for estimating bridge deterioration uses Markov-chain models and regression analysis. Traditional Markov models have problems in estimating the required transition probabilities when a small sample size is used. Often, reliable bridge data have not been taken over large periods, thus large data sets may not be available. This study presents an important change to the traditional approach by using the Small Data Method to estimate transition probabilities. The results illustrate that the Small Data Method and traditional approach both provide similar estimates; however, the former method provides results that are more conservative. That is, Small Data Method provided slightly lower than expected bridge condition ratings compared with the traditional approach. Considering that bridges are critical infrastructures, the Small Data Method, which uses more information and provides more conservative estimates, may be more appropriate when the available sample size is small. In addition, regression analysis was used to calculate bridge deterioration. Condition ratings were determined for bridge groups, and the best regression model was selected for each group. The results obtained were very similar to those obtained when using Markov chains; however, it is desirable to use more data for better results.

Keywords: Concrete bridges, deterioration, Markov chains, probability matrix.

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Authors: Paria Soleimani, Arezoo Neshati

Abstract:

Myocardial infarction is one of the leading causes of death in the world. Some of these deaths occur even before the patient reaches the hospital. Myocardial infarction occurs as a result of impaired blood supply. Because the most of these deaths are due to coronary artery disease, hence the awareness of the warning signs of a heart attack is essential. Some heart attacks are sudden and intense, but most of them start slowly, with mild pain or discomfort, then early detection and successful treatment of these symptoms is vital to save them. Therefore, importance and usefulness of a system designing to assist physicians in early diagnosis of the acute heart attacks is obvious. The main purpose of this study would be to enable patients to become better informed about their condition and to encourage them to seek professional care at an earlier stage in the appropriate situations. For this purpose, the data were collected on 711 heart patients in Iran hospitals. 28 attributes of clinical factors can be reported by patients; were studied. Three logistic regression models were made on the basis of the 28 features to predict the risk of heart attacks. The best logistic regression model in terms of performance had a C-index of 0.955 and with an accuracy of 94.9%. The variables, severe chest pain, back pain, cold sweats, shortness of breath, nausea and vomiting, were selected as the main features.

Keywords: Coronary heart disease, acute heart attacks, prediction, logistic regression.

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