Search results for: Markov random field
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 3090

Search results for: Markov random field

3000 Applying Gibbs Sampler for Multivariate Hierarchical Linear Model

Authors: Satoshi Usami

Abstract:

Among various HLM techniques, the Multivariate Hierarchical Linear Model (MHLM) is desirable to use, particularly when multivariate criterion variables are collected and the covariance structure has information valuable for data analysis. In order to reflect prior information or to obtain stable results when the sample size and the number of groups are not sufficiently large, the Bayes method has often been employed in hierarchical data analysis. In these cases, although the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method is a rather powerful tool for parameter estimation, Procedures regarding MCMC have not been formulated for MHLM. For this reason, this research presents concrete procedures for parameter estimation through the use of the Gibbs samplers. Lastly, several future topics for the use of MCMC approach for HLM is discussed.

Keywords: Gibbs sampler, Hierarchical Linear Model, Markov Chain Monte Carlo, Multivariate Hierarchical Linear Model

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2999 A New Approach to Feedback Shift Registers

Authors: Myat Su Mon Win

Abstract:

The pseudorandom number generators based on linear feedback shift registers (LFSRs), are very quick, easy and secure in the implementation of hardware and software. Thus they are very popular and widely used. But LFSRs lead to fairly easy cryptanalysis due to their completely linearity properties. In this paper, we propose a stochastic generator, which is called Random Feedback Shift Register (RFSR), using stochastic transformation (Random block) with one-way and non-linearity properties.

Keywords: Linear Feedback Shift Register, Non Linearity, R_Block, Random Feedback Shift Register

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2998 Optimal Bayesian Control of the Proportion of Defectives in a Manufacturing Process

Authors: Viliam Makis, Farnoosh Naderkhani, Leila Jafari

Abstract:

In this paper, we present a model and an algorithm for the calculation of the optimal control limit, average cost, sample size, and the sampling interval for an optimal Bayesian chart to control the proportion of defective items produced using a semi-Markov decision process approach. Traditional p-chart has been widely used for controlling the proportion of defectives in various kinds of production processes for many years. It is well known that traditional non-Bayesian charts are not optimal, but very few optimal Bayesian control charts have been developed in the literature, mostly considering finite horizon. The objective of this paper is to develop a fast computational algorithm to obtain the optimal parameters of a Bayesian p-chart. The decision problem is formulated in the partially observable framework and the developed algorithm is illustrated by a numerical example.

Keywords: Bayesian control chart, semi-Markov decision process, quality control, partially observable process.

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2997 Dynamic Variation in Nano-Scale CMOS SRAM Cells Due to LF/RTS Noise and Threshold Voltage

Authors: M. Fadlallah, G. Ghibaudo, C. G. Theodorou

Abstract:

The dynamic variation in memory devices such as the Static Random Access Memory can give errors in read or write operations. In this paper, the effect of low-frequency and random telegraph noise on the dynamic variation of one SRAM cell is detailed. The effect on circuit noise, speed, and length of time of processing is examined, using the Supply Read Retention Voltage and the Read Static Noise Margin. New test run methods are also developed. The obtained results simulation shows the importance of noise caused by dynamic variation, and the impact of Random Telegraph noise on SRAM variability is examined by evaluating the statistical distributions of Random Telegraph noise amplitude in the pull-up, pull-down. The threshold voltage mismatch between neighboring cell transistors due to intrinsic fluctuations typically contributes to larger reductions in static noise margin. Also the contribution of each of the SRAM transistor to total dynamic variation has been identified.

Keywords: Low-frequency noise, Random Telegraph Noise, Dynamic Variation, SRRV.

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2996 Data Oriented Modeling of Uniform Random Variable: Applied Approach

Authors: Ahmad Habibizad Navin, Mehdi Naghian Fesharaki, Mirkamal Mirnia, Mohamad Teshnelab, Ehsan Shahamatnia

Abstract:

In this paper we introduce new data oriented modeling of uniform random variable well-matched with computing systems. Due to this conformity with current computers structure, this modeling will be efficiently used in statistical inference.

Keywords: Uniform random variable, Data oriented modeling, Statistical inference, Prodigraph, Statistically complete tree, Uniformdigital probability digraph, Uniform n-complete probability tree.

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2995 Stochastic Model Predictive Control for Linear Discrete-Time Systems with Random Dither Quantization

Authors: Tomoaki Hashimoto

Abstract:

Recently, feedback control systems using random dither quantizers have been proposed for linear discrete-time systems. However, the constraints imposed on state and control variables have not yet been taken into account for the design of feedback control systems with random dither quantization. Model predictive control is a kind of optimal feedback control in which control performance over a finite future is optimized with a performance index that has a moving initial and terminal time. An important advantage of model predictive control is its ability to handle constraints imposed on state and control variables. Based on the model predictive control approach, the objective of this paper is to present a control method that satisfies probabilistic state constraints for linear discrete-time feedback control systems with random dither quantization. In other words, this paper provides a method for solving the optimal control problems subject to probabilistic state constraints for linear discrete-time feedback control systems with random dither quantization.

Keywords: Optimal control, stochastic systems, discrete-time systems, probabilistic constraints, random dither quantization.

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2994 A New Vector Quantization Front-End Process for Discrete HMM Speech Recognition System

Authors: M. Debyeche, J.P Haton, A. Houacine

Abstract:

The paper presents a complete discrete statistical framework, based on a novel vector quantization (VQ) front-end process. This new VQ approach performs an optimal distribution of VQ codebook components on HMM states. This technique that we named the distributed vector quantization (DVQ) of hidden Markov models, succeeds in unifying acoustic micro-structure and phonetic macro-structure, when the estimation of HMM parameters is performed. The DVQ technique is implemented through two variants. The first variant uses the K-means algorithm (K-means- DVQ) to optimize the VQ, while the second variant exploits the benefits of the classification behavior of neural networks (NN-DVQ) for the same purpose. The proposed variants are compared with the HMM-based baseline system by experiments of specific Arabic consonants recognition. The results show that the distributed vector quantization technique increase the performance of the discrete HMM system.

Keywords: Hidden Markov Model, Vector Quantization, Neural Network, Speech Recognition, Arabic Language

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2993 Improved Segmentation of Speckled Images Using an Arithmetic-to-Geometric Mean Ratio Kernel

Authors: J. Daba, J. Dubois

Abstract:

In this work, we improve a previously developed segmentation scheme aimed at extracting edge information from speckled images using a maximum likelihood edge detector. The scheme was based on finding a threshold for the probability density function of a new kernel defined as the arithmetic mean-to-geometric mean ratio field over a circular neighborhood set and, in a general context, is founded on a likelihood random field model (LRFM). The segmentation algorithm was applied to discriminated speckle areas obtained using simple elliptic discriminant functions based on measures of the signal-to-noise ratio with fractional order moments. A rigorous stochastic analysis was used to derive an exact expression for the cumulative density function of the probability density function of the random field. Based on this, an accurate probability of error was derived and the performance of the scheme was analysed. The improved segmentation scheme performed well for both simulated and real images and showed superior results to those previously obtained using the original LRFM scheme and standard edge detection methods. In particular, the false alarm probability was markedly lower than that of the original LRFM method with oversegmentation artifacts virtually eliminated. The importance of this work lies in the development of a stochastic-based segmentation, allowing an accurate quantification of the probability of false detection. Non visual quantification and misclassification in medical ultrasound speckled images is relatively new and is of interest to clinicians.

Keywords: Discriminant function, false alarm, segmentation, signal-to-noise ratio, skewness, speckle.

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2992 Improving Protein-Protein Interaction Prediction by Using Encoding Strategies and Random Indices

Authors: Essam Al-Daoud

Abstract:

A New features are extracted and compared to improve the prediction of protein-protein interactions. The basic idea is to select and use the best set of features from the Tensor matrices that are produced by the frequency vectors of the protein sequences. Three set of features are compared, the first set is based on the indices that are the most common in the interacting proteins, the second set is based on the indices that tend to be common in the interacting and non-interacting proteins, and the third set is constructed by using random indices. Moreover, three encoding strategies are compared; that are based on the amino asides polarity, structure, and chemical properties. The experimental results indicate that the highest accuracy can be obtained by using random indices with chemical properties encoding strategy and support vector machine.

Keywords: protein-protein interactions, random indices, encoding strategies, support vector machine.

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2991 Trajectory-Based Modified Policy Iteration

Authors: R. Sharma, M. Gopal

Abstract:

This paper presents a new problem solving approach that is able to generate optimal policy solution for finite-state stochastic sequential decision-making problems with high data efficiency. The proposed algorithm iteratively builds and improves an approximate Markov Decision Process (MDP) model along with cost-to-go value approximates by generating finite length trajectories through the state-space. The approach creates a synergy between an approximate evolving model and approximate cost-to-go values to produce a sequence of improving policies finally converging to the optimal policy through an intelligent and structured search of the policy space. The approach modifies the policy update step of the policy iteration so as to result in a speedy and stable convergence to the optimal policy. We apply the algorithm to a non-holonomic mobile robot control problem and compare its performance with other Reinforcement Learning (RL) approaches, e.g., a) Q-learning, b) Watkins Q(λ), c) SARSA(λ).

Keywords: Markov Decision Process (MDP), Mobile robot, Policy iteration, Simulation.

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2990 Multiple Targets Classification and Fuzzy Logic Decision Fusion in Wireless Sensor Networks

Authors: Ahmad Aljaafreh

Abstract:

This paper proposes a hierarchical hidden Markov model (HHMM) to model the detection of M vehicles in a wireless sensor network (WSN). The HHMM model contains an extra level of hidden Markov model to model the temporal transitions of each state of the first HMM. By modeling the temporal transitions, only those hypothesis with nonzero transition probabilities needs to be tested. Thus, this method efficiently reduces the computation load, which is preferable in WSN applications.This paper integrates several techniques to optimize the detection performance. The output of the states of the first HMM is modeled as Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM), where the number of states and the number of Gaussians are experimentally determined, while the other parameters are estimated using Expectation Maximization (EM). HHMM is used to model the sequence of the local decisions which are based on multiple hypothesis testing with maximum likelihood approach. The states in the HHMM represent various combinations of vehicles of different types. Due to the statistical advantages of multisensor data fusion, we propose a heuristic based on fuzzy weighted majority voting to enhance cooperative classification of moving vehicles within a region that is monitored by a wireless sensor network. A fuzzy inference system weighs each local decision based on the signal to noise ratio of the acoustic signal for target detection and the signal to noise ratio of the radio signal for sensor communication. The spatial correlation among the observations of neighboring sensor nodes is efficiently utilized as well as the temporal correlation. Simulation results demonstrate the efficiency of this scheme.

Keywords: Classification, decision fusion, fuzzy logic, hidden Markov model

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2989 Segmentation of Piecewise Polynomial Regression Model by Using Reversible Jump MCMC Algorithm

Authors: Suparman

Abstract:

Piecewise polynomial regression model is very flexible model for modeling the data. If the piecewise polynomial regression model is matched against the data, its parameters are not generally known. This paper studies the parameter estimation problem of piecewise polynomial regression model. The method which is used to estimate the parameters of the piecewise polynomial regression model is Bayesian method. Unfortunately, the Bayes estimator cannot be found analytically. Reversible jump MCMC algorithm is proposed to solve this problem. Reversible jump MCMC algorithm generates the Markov chain that converges to the limit distribution of the posterior distribution of piecewise polynomial regression model parameter. The resulting Markov chain is used to calculate the Bayes estimator for the parameters of piecewise polynomial regression model.

Keywords: Piecewise, Bayesian, reversible jump MCMC, segmentation.

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2988 Availability Analysis of Milling System in a Rice Milling Plant

Authors: P. C. Tewari, Parveen Kumar

Abstract:

The paper describes the availability analysis of milling system of a rice milling plant using probabilistic approach. The subsystems under study are special purpose machines. The availability analysis of the system is carried out to determine the effect of failure and repair rates of each subsystem on overall performance (i.e. steady state availability) of system concerned. Further, on the basis of effect of repair rates on the system availability, maintenance repair priorities have been suggested. The problem is formulated using Markov Birth-Death process taking exponential distribution for probable failures and repair rates. The first order differential equations associated with transition diagram are developed by using mnemonic rule. These equations are solved using normalizing conditions and recursive method to drive out the steady state availability expression of the system. The findings of the paper are presented and discussed with the plant personnel to adopt a suitable maintenance policy to increase the productivity of the rice milling plant.

Keywords: Markov process, milling system, availability modeling, rice milling plant.

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2987 First Studies of the Influence of Single Gene Perturbations on the Inference of Genetic Networks

Authors: Frank Emmert-Streib, Matthias Dehmer

Abstract:

Inferring the network structure from time series data is a hard problem, especially if the time series is short and noisy. DNA microarray is a technology allowing to monitor the mRNA concentration of thousands of genes simultaneously that produces data of these characteristics. In this study we try to investigate the influence of the experimental design on the quality of the result. More precisely, we investigate the influence of two different types of random single gene perturbations on the inference of genetic networks from time series data. To obtain an objective quality measure for this influence we simulate gene expression values with a biologically plausible model of a known network structure. Within this framework we study the influence of single gene knock-outs in opposite to linearly controlled expression for single genes on the quality of the infered network structure.

Keywords: Dynamic Bayesian networks, microarray data, structure learning, Markov chain Monte Carlo.

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2986 Texture Based Weed Detection Using Multi Resolution Combined Statistical and Spatial Frequency (MRCSF)

Authors: R.S.Sabeenian, V.Palanisamy

Abstract:

Texture classification is a trendy and a catchy technology in the field of texture analysis. Textures, the repeated patterns, have different frequency components along different orientations. Our work is based on Texture Classification and its applications. It finds its applications in various fields like Medical Image Classification, Computer Vision, Remote Sensing, Agricultural Field, and Textile Industry. Weed control has a major effect on agriculture. A large amount of herbicide has been used for controlling weeds in agriculture fields, lawns, golf courses, sport fields, etc. Random spraying of herbicides does not meet the exact requirement of the field. Certain areas in field have more weed patches than estimated. So, we need a visual system that can discriminate weeds from the field image which will reduce or even eliminate the amount of herbicide used. This would allow farmers to not use any herbicides or only apply them where they are needed. A machine vision precision automated weed control system could reduce the usage of chemicals in crop fields. In this paper, an intelligent system for automatic weeding strategy Multi Resolution Combined Statistical & spatial Frequency is used to discriminate the weeds from the crops and to classify them as narrow, little and broad weeds.

Keywords: crop weed discrimination, MRCSF, MRFM, Weeddetection, Spatial Frequency.

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2985 Unconstrained Arabic Online Handwritten Words Segmentation using New HMM State Design

Authors: Randa Ibrahim Elanwar, Mohsen Rashwan, Samia Mashali

Abstract:

In this paper we propose a segmentation system for unconstrained Arabic online handwriting. An essential problem addressed by analytical-based word recognition system. The system is composed of two-stages the first is a newly special designed hidden Markov model (HMM) and the second is a rules based stage. In our system, handwritten words are broken up into characters by simultaneous segmentation-recognition using HMMs of unique design trained using online features most of which are novel. The HMM output characters boundaries represent the proposed segmentation points (PSP) which are then validated by rules-based post stage without any contextual information help to solve different segmentation errors. The HMM has been designed and tested using a self collected dataset (OHASD) [1]. Most errors cases are cured and remarkable segmentation enhancement is achieved. Very promising word and character segmentation rates are obtained regarding the unconstrained Arabic handwriting difficulty and not using context help.

Keywords: Arabic, Hidden Markov Models, online handwriting, word segmentation

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2984 The Giant Component in a Random Subgraph of a Weak Expander

Authors: Yilun Shang

Abstract:

In this paper, we investigate the appearance of the giant component in random subgraphs G(p) of a given large finite graph family Gn = (Vn, En) in which each edge is present independently with probability p. We show that if the graph Gn satisfies a weak isoperimetric inequality and has bounded degree, then the probability p under which G(p) has a giant component of linear order with some constant probability is bounded away from zero and one. In addition, we prove the probability of abnormally large order of the giant component decays exponentially. When a contact graph is modeled as Gn, our result is of special interest in the study of the spread of infectious diseases or the identification of community in various social networks.

Keywords: subgraph, expander, random graph, giant component, percolation.

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2983 The Maximum Likelihood Method of Random Coefficient Dynamic Regression Model

Authors: Autcha Araveeporn

Abstract:

The Random Coefficient Dynamic Regression (RCDR) model is to developed from Random Coefficient Autoregressive (RCA) model and Autoregressive (AR) model. The RCDR model is considered by adding exogenous variables to RCA model. In this paper, the concept of the Maximum Likelihood (ML) method is used to estimate the parameter of RCDR(1,1) model. Simulation results have shown the AIC and BIC criterion to compare the performance of the the RCDR(1,1) model. The variables as the stationary and weakly stationary data are good estimates where the exogenous variables are weakly stationary. However, the model selection indicated that variables are nonstationarity data based on the stationary data of the exogenous variables.

Keywords: Autoregressive, Maximum Likelihood Method, Nonstationarity, Random Coefficient Dynamic Regression, Stationary.

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2982 Auto Tuning PID Controller based on Improved Genetic Algorithm for Reverse Osmosis Plant

Authors: Jin-Sung Kim, Jin-Hwan Kim, Ji-Mo Park, Sung-Man Park, Won-Yong Choe, Hoon Heo

Abstract:

An optimal control of Reverse Osmosis (RO) plant is studied in this paper utilizing the auto tuning concept in conjunction with PID controller. A control scheme composing an auto tuning stochastic technique based on an improved Genetic Algorithm (GA) is proposed. For better evaluation of the process in GA, objective function defined newly in sense of root mean square error has been used. Also in order to achieve better performance of GA, more pureness and longer period of random number generation in operation are sought. The main improvement is made by replacing the uniform distribution random number generator in conventional GA technique to newly designed hybrid random generator composed of Cauchy distribution and linear congruential generator, which provides independent and different random numbers at each individual steps in Genetic operation. The performance of newly proposed GA tuned controller is compared with those of conventional ones via simulation.

Keywords: Genetic Algorithm, Auto tuning, Hybrid random number generator, Reverse Osmosis, PID controller

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2981 Speech Coding and Recognition

Authors: M. Satya Sai Ram, P. Siddaiah, M. Madhavi Latha

Abstract:

This paper investigates the performance of a speech recognizer in an interactive voice response system for various coded speech signals, coded by using a vector quantization technique namely Multi Switched Split Vector Quantization Technique. The process of recognizing the coded output can be used in Voice banking application. The recognition technique used for the recognition of the coded speech signals is the Hidden Markov Model technique. The spectral distortion performance, computational complexity, and memory requirements of Multi Switched Split Vector Quantization Technique and the performance of the speech recognizer at various bit rates have been computed. From results it is found that the speech recognizer is showing better performance at 24 bits/frame and it is found that the percentage of recognition is being varied from 100% to 93.33% for various bit rates.

Keywords: Linear predictive coding, Speech Recognition, Voice banking, Multi Switched Split Vector Quantization, Hidden Markov Model, Linear Predictive Coefficients.

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2980 Block Activity in Metric Neural Networks

Authors: Mario Gonzalez, David Dominguez, Francisco B. Rodriguez

Abstract:

The model of neural networks on the small-world topology, with metric (local and random connectivity) is investigated. The synaptic weights are random, driving the network towards a chaotic state for the neural activity. An ordered macroscopic neuron state is induced by a bias in the network connections. When the connections are mainly local, the network emulates a block-like structure. It is found that the topology and the bias compete to influence the network to evolve into a global or a block activity ordering, according to the initial conditions.

Keywords: Block attractor, random interaction, small world, spin glass.

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2979 Performance Modeling and Availability Analysis of Yarn Dyeing System of a Textile Industry

Authors: P. C. Tewari, Rajiv Kumar, Dinesh Khanduja

Abstract:

This paper discusses the performance modeling and availability analysis of Yarn Dyeing System of a Textile Industry. The Textile Industry is a complex and repairable engineering system. Yarn Dyeing System of Textile Industry consists of five subsystems arranged in series configuration. For performance modeling and analysis of availability, a performance evaluating model has been developed with the help of mathematical formulation based on Markov-Birth-Death Process. The differential equations have been developed on the basis of Probabilistic Approach using a Transition Diagram. These equations have further been solved using normalizing condition in order to develop the steady state availability, a performance measure of the system concerned. The system performance has been further analyzed with the help of decision matrices. These matrices provide various availability levels for different combinations of failure and repair rates for various subsystems. The findings of this paper are therefore, considered to be useful for the analysis of availability and determination of the best possible maintenance strategies which can be implemented in future to enhance the system performance.

Keywords: Availability Analysis, Markov Process, Performance Modeling, Steady State Availability.

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2978 A New Concept for Deriving the Expected Value of Fuzzy Random Variables

Authors: Liang-Hsuan Chen, Chia-Jung Chang

Abstract:

Fuzzy random variables have been introduced as an imprecise concept of numeric values for characterizing the imprecise knowledge. The descriptive parameters can be used to describe the primary features of a set of fuzzy random observations. In fuzzy environments, the expected values are usually represented as fuzzy-valued, interval-valued or numeric-valued descriptive parameters using various metrics. Instead of the concept of area metric that is usually adopted in the relevant studies, the numeric expected value is proposed by the concept of distance metric in this study based on two characters (fuzziness and randomness) of FRVs. Comparing with the existing measures, although the results show that the proposed numeric expected value is same with those using the different metric, if only triangular membership functions are used. However, the proposed approach has the advantages of intuitiveness and computational efficiency, when the membership functions are not triangular types. An example with three datasets is provided for verifying the proposed approach.

Keywords: Fuzzy random variables, Distance measure, Expected value.

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2977 Efficient System for Speech Recognition using General Regression Neural Network

Authors: Abderrahmane Amrouche, Jean Michel Rouvaen

Abstract:

In this paper we present an efficient system for independent speaker speech recognition based on neural network approach. The proposed architecture comprises two phases: a preprocessing phase which consists in segmental normalization and features extraction and a classification phase which uses neural networks based on nonparametric density estimation namely the general regression neural network (GRNN). The relative performances of the proposed model are compared to the similar recognition systems based on the Multilayer Perceptron (MLP), the Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) and the well known Discrete Hidden Markov Model (HMM-VQ) that we have achieved also. Experimental results obtained with Arabic digits have shown that the use of nonparametric density estimation with an appropriate smoothing factor (spread) improves the generalization power of the neural network. The word error rate (WER) is reduced significantly over the baseline HMM method. GRNN computation is a successful alternative to the other neural network and DHMM.

Keywords: Speech Recognition, General Regression NeuralNetwork, Hidden Markov Model, Recurrent Neural Network, ArabicDigits.

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2976 Optimal Maintenance Policy for a Partially Observable Two-Unit System

Authors: Leila Jafari, Viliam Makis, Akram Khaleghei G.B.

Abstract:

In this paper, we present a maintenance model of a two-unit series system with economic dependence. Unit#1 which is considered to be more expensive and more important, is subject to condition monitoring (CM) at equidistant, discrete time epochs and unit#2, which is not subject to CM has a general lifetime distribution. The multivariate observation vectors obtained through condition monitoring carry partial information about the hidden state of unit#1, which can be in a healthy or a warning state while operating. Only the failure state is assumed to be observable for both units. The objective is to find an optimal opportunistic maintenance policy minimizing the long-run expected average cost per unit time. The problem is formulated and solved in the partially observable semi-Markov decision process framework. An effective computational algorithm for finding the optimal policy and the minimum average cost is developed, illustrated by a numerical example.

Keywords: Condition-Based Maintenance, Semi-Markov Decision Process, Multivariate Bayesian Control Chart, Partially Observable System, Two-unit System.

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2975 Physical and Chemical Investigation of Polycaprolactone, Nanohydroxyapatite and Poly (Vinyl Alcohol) Nanocomposite Scaffolds

Authors: A.Doustgani, E.Vasheghani- Farahani, M. Soleimani, S. Hashemi-Najafabadi

Abstract:

Aligned and random nanofibrous scaffolds of PVA/PCL/nHA were fabricated by electrospinning method. The composite nanofibrous scaffolds were subjected to detailed analysis. Morphological investigations revealed that the prepared nanofibers have uniform morphology and the average fiber diameters of aligned and random scaffolds were 135.5 and 290 nm, respectively. The obtained scaffolds have a porous structure with porosity of 88 and 76% for random and aligned nanofibers, respectively. Furthermore, FTIR analysis demonstrated that there were strong intramolecular interactions between the molecules of PVA/PCL/nHA. On the other hand, mechanical characterizations show that aligning the nanofibers, could significantly improve the rigidity of the resultant biocomposite nanofibrous scaffolds.

Keywords: Electrospinnig, nanofibrous scaffold, poly (vinyl alcohol), polycaprolactone.

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2974 Feature Selection and Predictive Modeling of Housing Data Using Random Forest

Authors: Bharatendra Rai

Abstract:

Predictive data analysis and modeling involving machine learning techniques become challenging in presence of too many explanatory variables or features. Presence of too many features in machine learning is known to not only cause algorithms to slow down, but they can also lead to decrease in model prediction accuracy. This study involves housing dataset with 79 quantitative and qualitative features that describe various aspects people consider while buying a new house. Boruta algorithm that supports feature selection using a wrapper approach build around random forest is used in this study. This feature selection process leads to 49 confirmed features which are then used for developing predictive random forest models. The study also explores five different data partitioning ratios and their impact on model accuracy are captured using coefficient of determination (r-square) and root mean square error (rsme).

Keywords: Housing data, feature selection, random forest, Boruta algorithm, root mean square error.

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2973 Fusion Classifier for Open-Set Face Recognition with Pose Variations

Authors: Gee-Sern Jison Hsu

Abstract:

A fusion classifier composed of two modules, one made by a hidden Markov model (HMM) and the other by a support vector machine (SVM), is proposed to recognize faces with pose variations in open-set recognition settings. The HMM module captures the evolution of facial features across a subject-s face using the subject-s facial images only, without referencing to the faces of others. Because of the captured evolutionary process of facial features, the HMM module retains certain robustness against pose variations, yielding low false rejection rates (FRR) for recognizing faces across poses. This is, however, on the price of poor false acceptance rates (FAR) when recognizing other faces because it is built upon withinclass samples only. The SVM module in the proposed model is developed following a special design able to substantially diminish the FAR and further lower down the FRR. The proposed fusion classifier has been evaluated in performance using the CMU PIE database, and proven effective for open-set face recognition with pose variations. Experiments have also shown that it outperforms the face classifier made by HMM or SVM alone.

Keywords: Face recognition, open-set identification, hidden Markov model, support vector machines.

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2972 Volatility Switching between Two Regimes

Authors: Josip Visković, Josip Arnerić, Ante Rozga

Abstract:

Based on the fact that volatility is time varying in high frequency data and that periods of high volatility tend to cluster, the most successful and popular models in modeling time varying volatility are GARCH type models. When financial returns exhibit sudden jumps that are due to structural breaks, standard GARCH models show high volatility persistence, i.e. integrated behavior of the conditional variance. In such situations models in which the parameters are allowed to change over time are more appropriate. This paper compares different GARCH models in terms of their ability to describe structural changes in returns caused by financial crisis at stock markets of six selected central and east European countries. The empirical analysis demonstrates that Markov regime switching GARCH model resolves the problem of excessive persistence and outperforms uni-regime GARCH models in forecasting volatility when sudden switching occurs in response to financial crisis.

Keywords: Central and east European countries, financial crisis, Markov switching GARCH model, transition probabilities.

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2971 Reduction of Linear Time-Invariant Systems Using Routh-Approximation and PSO

Authors: S. Panda, S. K. Tomar, R. Prasad, C. Ardil

Abstract:

Order reduction of linear-time invariant systems employing two methods; one using the advantages of Routh approximation and other by an evolutionary technique is presented in this paper. In Routh approximation method the denominator of the reduced order model is obtained using Routh approximation while the numerator of the reduced order model is determined using the indirect approach of retaining the time moments and/or Markov parameters of original system. By this method the reduced order model guarantees stability if the original high order model is stable. In the second method Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) is employed to reduce the higher order model. PSO method is based on the minimization of the Integral Squared Error (ISE) between the transient responses of original higher order model and the reduced order model pertaining to a unit step input. Both the methods are illustrated through numerical examples.

Keywords: Model Order Reduction, Markov Parameters, Routh Approximation, Particle Swarm Optimization, Integral Squared Error, Steady State Stability.

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