Search results for: Hypothetical Reasoning

Authors: Yue Wang, Jixin Ma, Brian Knight

Abstract:

This paper presents a visualized computer aided case tool for non-expert, called Visual Time, for representing and reasoning about incomplete and uncertain temporal information. It is both expressive and versatile, allowing logical conjunctions and disjunctions of both absolute and relative temporal relations, such as “Before”, “Meets”, “Overlaps”, “Starts”, “During”, and “Finishes”, etc. In terms of a visualized framework, Visual Time provides a user-friendly environment for describing scenarios with rich temporal structure in natural language, which can be formatted as structured temporal phrases and modeled in terms of Temporal Relationship Diagrams (TRD). A TRD can be automatically and visually transformed into a corresponding Time Graph, supported by automatic consistency checker that derives a verdict to confirm if a given scenario is temporally consistent or inconsistent.

Keywords: Time Visualization, Uncertainty, Incompleteness, Consistency Checking.

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Authors: Nhon Van Do

Abstract:

In the artificial intelligence field, knowledge representation and reasoning are important areas for intelligent systems, especially knowledge base systems and expert systems. Knowledge representation Methods has an important role in designing the systems. There have been many models for knowledge such as semantic networks, conceptual graphs, and neural networks. These models are useful tools to design intelligent systems. However, they are not suitable to represent knowledge in the domains of reality applications. In this paper, new models for knowledge representation called computational networks will be presented. They have been used in designing some knowledge base systems in education for solving problems such as the system that supports studying knowledge and solving analytic geometry problems, the program for studying and solving problems in Plane Geometry, the program for solving problems about alternating current in physics.

Keywords: Artificial intelligence, artificial intelligence and education, knowledge engineering, knowledge representation.

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Authors: Ariyanti Mustapha

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The development of Islamic jurisprudence since the first century of the hijra has fascinated many orientalists to explore the historiography of Islamic legislation. The practice of usul fiqh began during the lifetime of the Prophet Muhammad and was continued by the companions as the legal reasoning due to the absence of the legal injunction in the Qur’an and Sunnah. The orientalists propagated that the Roman and Jewish legislation were transplanted into Islamic jurisprudence and it was the primary reason for its progression. We used qualitative and comparative methods to analyze the orientalists’ views. Results showed that many erroneous facts were propagated by Goldziher and Schacht by claiming the parallels between the principles, methodologies, and fundamental concepts in Islamic jurisprudence and Roman Provincial law. The orientalists claimed that Islamic jurisprudence was derived from the corpus of Jewish Mishnah and Ha-kol. These judgments are used by the orientalists to prove the inferiority of Islamic jurisprudence. Nevertheless, many evidences have proven that Islamic legislation is capable of developing independently without any foreign transplant.

Keywords: Foreign transplant, ijtihad, orientalist, usul fiqh.

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Authors: Nhon Van Do, Nam Hoai Le, Vien Chan Luong

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The Model for Knowledge Base of Computational Objects (KBCO model) has been successfully applied to represent the knowledge of human like Plane Geometry, Physical, Calculus. However, the original model cannot easyly apply in inorganic chemistry field because of the knowledge specific problems. So, the aim of this article is to introduce how we extend the Computional Object (Com-Object) in KBCO model, kinds of fact, problems model, and inference algorithms to develop a program for solving problems in inorganic chemistry. Our purpose is to develop the application that can help students in their study inorganic chemistry at schools. This application was built successful by using Maple, C# and WPF technology. It can solve automatically problems and give human readable solution agree with those writting by students and teachers.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, automated problem solving, knowledge base system, knowledge representation, reasoning strategy, education software/educational applications.

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Authors: Edlira Kalemi, Sule Yildirim-Yayilgan

Abstract:

Online Social Networks (OSNs) are nowadays being used widely and intensively for crime investigation and prevention activities. As they provide a lot of information they are used by the law enforcement and intelligence. An extensive review on existing solutions and models for collecting intelligence from this source of information and making use of it for solving crimes has been presented in this article. The main focus is on smart solutions and models where ontologies have been used as the main approach for representing criminal domain knowledge. A framework for a prototype ontology named SC-Ont will be described. This defines terms of the criminal domain ontology and the relations between them. The terms and the relations are extracted during both this review and the discussions carried out with domain experts. The development of SC-Ont is still ongoing work, where in this paper, we report mainly on the motivation for using smart ontology models and the possible benefits of using them for solving crimes.

Keywords: Criminal digital evidence, social media, ontologies, reasoning.

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Authors: Dení Stincer Gómez, Zuraya Monroy Nasr

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Pedagogy of science historically has given priority to teaching strategies that mobilize the cognitive mechanisms leaving out emotional mechanisms. Modern epistemology, cognitive psychology and psychoanalysis begin to argue and prove that emotions are relevant epistemological functions. They are 1) the selection function: that allows the perception and reason choose, to multiple alternative explanation of a particular fact, those are relevant and discard those that are not, 2) heuristic function: that is related to the activation cognitive processes that are effective in the process of knowing; and 3) the so-called content-bearing function: it argues that emotions provide the material reasoning that is subsequently transformed into linguistic propositions. According to these hypotheses, scientific knowledge seems to come from emotions that meet these functions. This paper argues that science education must start from the presence of certain emotions in the learner if we want to form citizens with a scientific or cultural future.

Keywords: Epistemic emotions, science education, formation of citizens and scientists, epistemic functions of emotions.

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Authors: Sadaf Nawaz, Adnan Ahmed Khan, Asad Mahmood, Chaudhary Farrukh Javed

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Classically, an energy detector is implemented in time domain (TD). However, frequency domain (FD) based energy detector has demonstrated an improved performance. This paper presents a comparison between the two approaches as to analyze their pros and cons. A detailed performance analysis of the classical TD energy-detector and the periodogram based detector is performed. Exact and approximate mathematical expressions for probability of false alarm (Pf) and probability of detection (Pd) are derived for both approaches. The derived expressions naturally lead to an analytical as well as intuitive reasoning for the improved performance of (Pf) and (Pd) in different scenarios. Our analysis suggests the dependence improvement on buffer sizes. Pf is improved in FD, whereas Pd is enhanced in TD based energy detectors. Finally, Monte Carlo simulations results demonstrate the analysis reached by the derived expressions.

Keywords: Cognitive radio, energy detector, periodogram, spectrum sensing.

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Authors: Abdallah A. Alshennawy, Ayman A. Aly

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The fuzzy technique is an operator introduced in order to simulate at a mathematical level the compensatory behavior in process of decision making or subjective evaluation. The following paper introduces such operators on hand of computer vision application. In this paper a novel method based on fuzzy logic reasoning strategy is proposed for edge detection in digital images without determining the threshold value. The proposed approach begins by segmenting the images into regions using floating 3x3 binary matrix. The edge pixels are mapped to a range of values distinct from each other. The robustness of the proposed method results for different captured images are compared to those obtained with the linear Sobel operator. It is gave a permanent effect in the lines smoothness and straightness for the straight lines and good roundness for the curved lines. In the same time the corners get sharper and can be defined easily.

Keywords: Fuzzy logic, Edge detection, Image processing, computer vision, Mechanical parts, Measurement.

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Authors: G. Haupt

Abstract:

Existing literature ondesign reasoning seems to give either one sided accounts on expert design behaviour based on internal processing. In the same way ecological theoriesseem to focus one sidedly on external elementsthat result in a lack of unifying design cognition theory. Although current extended design cognition studies acknowledge the intellectual interaction between internal and external resources, there still seems to be insufficient understanding of the complexities involved in such interactive processes. As such,this paper proposes a novelmulti-directional model for design researchers tomap the complex and dynamic conduct controlling behaviour in which both the computational and ecological perspectives are integrated in a vertical manner. A clear distinction between identified intentional and emerging physical drivers, and relationships between them during the early phases of experts- design process, is demonstrated by presenting a case study in which the model was employed.

Keywords: External representation, early phases, extended design cognition, internal processes and external drivers, conduct controlling behaviour.

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Authors: Ahmed Tawfik, Fausto Giunchiglia, Vincenzo Maltese

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Ontologies provide a common understanding of a specific domain of interest that can be communicated between people and used as background knowledge for automated reasoning in a wide range of applications. In this paper, we address the design of multilingual ontologies following well-defined knowledge engineering methodologies with the support of novel collaborative development approaches. In particular, we present a collaborative platform which allows ontologies to be developed incrementally in multiple languages. This is made possible via an appropriate mapping between language independent concepts and one lexicalization per language (or a lexical gap in case such lexicalization does not exist). The collaborative platform has been designed to support the development of the Universal Knowledge Core, a multilingual ontology currently in English, Italian, Chinese, Mongolian, Hindi and Bangladeshi. Its design follows a workflow-based development methodology that models resources as a set of collaborative objects and assigns customizable workflows to build and maintain each collaborative object in a community driven manner, with extensive support of modern web 2.0 social and collaborative features.

Keywords: Knowledge Diversity, Knowledge Representation, Ontology Development.

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Authors: M. Matash Borujerdi, S.M. Mirzababaei

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As computer network technology becomes increasingly complex, it becomes necessary to place greater requirements on the validity of developing standards and the resulting technology. Communication networks are based on large amounts of protocols. The validity of these protocols have to be proved either individually or in an integral fashion. One strategy for achieving this is to apply the growing field of formal methods. Formal methods research defines systems in high order logic so that automated reasoning can be applied for verification. In this research we represent and implement a formerly announced multicast protocol in Prolog language so that certain properties of the protocol can be verified. It is shown that by using this approach some minor faults in the protocol were found and repaired. Describing the protocol as facts and rules also have other benefits i.e. leads to a process-able knowledge. This knowledge can be transferred as ontology between systems in KQML format. Since the Prolog language can increase its knowledge base every time, this method can also be used to learn an intelligent network.

Keywords: Formal methods, MobiCast, Mobile Network, Multicast.

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Authors: Mehrdad N. Khajavi, Bahram Notghi, Golamhassan Paygane

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Vehicle suspension design must fulfill some conflicting criteria. Among those is ride comfort which is attained by minimizing the acceleration transmitted to the sprung mass, via suspension spring and damper. Also good handling of a vehicle is a desirable property which requires stiff suspension and therefore is in contrast with a vehicle with good ride. Among the other desirable features of a suspension is the minimization of the maximum travel of suspension. This travel which is called suspension working space in vehicle dynamics literature is also a design constraint and it favors good ride. In this research a full car 8 degrees of freedom model has been developed and the three above mentioned criteria, namely: ride, handling and working space has been adopted as objective functions. The Multi Objective Programming (MOP) discipline has been used to find the Pareto Front and some reasoning used to chose a design point between these non dominated points of Pareto Front.

Keywords: Vehicle, Ride, Handling, Suspension, Working Space, Multi Objective Programming.

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Authors: Jędrzej Minda

Abstract:

In aviation a very narrow spectrum of control inceptors exists, namely centre-sticks, side-sticks, pedals and yokes. However, new types of aircraft are emerging and with them a need for new inceptors. A manned multicopter created at AGH University of Science and Technology is an aircraft in which the pilot takes a specific orientation in which classical inceptors may be impractical to use. In this paper unique kind of control inceptor is described, which aims to provide a handling quality not unlike standard solutions and provide a firm grip point for the pilot without the risk of involuntary stick movement. Simulations of pilot-inceptor model were performed in order to compare dynamic amplification factors of design described in this paper with classical one. Functional prototype is built on which drone pilots carried out a comfort of use evaluation. This paper provides a general overview of the project, including literature review, reasoning behind components selection and mechanism design finalized by conclusions.

Keywords: Mechanisms, mechatronics, embedded control, serious gaming, rescue missions, rescue robotics.

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Authors: J. L. Andrade-Pineda, J.M. León-Blanco, M. Calle, P. L. González-R

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The enrollment in current Master's degree programs usually pursues gaining the expertise required in real-life workplaces. The experience we present here concerns the learning process of "Project Management Methodology (PMM)", around a cooperative/collaborative mechanism aimed at affording students measurable learning goals and providing the teacher with the ability of focusing on the weaknesses detected. We have designed a mixed summative/formative evaluation, which assures curriculum engage while enriches the comprehension of PMM key concepts. In this experience we converted the students into active actors in the evaluation process itself and we endowed ourselves as teachers with a flexible process in which along with qualifications (score), other attitudinal feedback arises. Despite the high level of self-affirmation on their discussion within the interactive assessment sessions, they ultimately have exhibited a great ability to review and correct the wrong reasoning when that was the case.

Keywords: Cooperative-collaborative learning, educational management, formative-summative assessment, leadership training.

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Authors: B. Al-Naami, N. Gharaibeh, A. AlRazzaq Kheshman

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Alzheimer is known as the loss of mental functions such as thinking, memory, and reasoning that is severe enough to interfere with a person's daily functioning. The appearance of Alzheimer Disease symptoms (AD) are resulted based on which part of the brain has a variety of infection or damage. In this case, the MRI is the best biomedical instrumentation can be ever used to discover the AD existence. Therefore, this paper proposed a fusion method to distinguish between the normal and (AD) MRIs. In this combined method around 27 MRIs collected from Jordanian Hospitals are analyzed based on the use of Low pass -morphological filters to get the extracted statistical outputs through intensity histogram to be employed by the descriptive box plot. Also, the artificial neural network (ANN) is applied to test the performance of this approach. Finally, the obtained result of t-test with confidence accuracy (95%) has compared with classification accuracy of ANN (100 %). The robust of the developed method can be considered effectively to diagnose and determine the type of AD image.

Keywords: Alzheimer disease, Brain MRI analysis, Morphological filter, Box plot, Intensity histogram, ANN.

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Authors: Quratulain N. Rajput, Sajjad Haider

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This paper applies Bayesian Networks to support information extraction from unstructured, ungrammatical, and incoherent data sources for semantic annotation. A tool has been developed that combines ontologies, machine learning, and information extraction and probabilistic reasoning techniques to support the extraction process. Data acquisition is performed with the aid of knowledge specified in the form of ontology. Due to the variable size of information available on different data sources, it is often the case that the extracted data contains missing values for certain variables of interest. It is desirable in such situations to predict the missing values. The methodology, presented in this paper, first learns a Bayesian network from the training data and then uses it to predict missing data and to resolve conflicts. Experiments have been conducted to analyze the performance of the presented methodology. The results look promising as the methodology achieves high degree of precision and recall for information extraction and reasonably good accuracy for predicting missing values.

Keywords: Information Extraction, Bayesian Network, ontology, Machine Learning

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Authors: Anosh Arshad Sundhu, Francesco Giordano, Giacomo Della Croce, Maurizio Arnone

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Digital Twin (DT) is a technology that generates a virtual representation of a physical system or process, enabling real-time monitoring, analysis, and simulation. DT of an Electrical Distribution System (EDS) can perform online analysis by integrating the static and real-time data in order to show the current grid status and predictions about the future status to the Distribution System Operator (DSO), producers and consumers. DT technology for EDS also offers the opportunity to DSO to test hypothetical scenarios. This paper discusses the development of a DT of an EDS by Smart Grid Controller (SGC) application, which is developed using open-source libraries and languages. The developed application can be integrated with Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition System (SCADA) of any EDS for creating the DT. The paper shows the performance of developed tools inside the application, tested on real EDS for grid observability, Smart Recursive Load Flow (SRLF) calculation and state estimation of loads in MV feeders.

Keywords: Digital Twin, Distribution System Operator, Electrical Distribution System, Smart Grid Controller, Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition System, Smart Recursive Load Flow.

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Authors: Xia Cui, Guang-wei Yuan, Jing-yan Yue

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A Picard-Newton iteration method is studied to accelerate the numerical solution procedure of a class of two-dimensional nonlinear coupled parabolic-hyperbolic system. The Picard-Newton iteration is designed by adding higher-order terms of small quantity to an existing Picard iteration. The discrete functional analysis and inductive hypothesis reasoning techniques are used to overcome difficulties coming from nonlinearity and coupling, and theoretical analysis is made for the convergence and approximation properties of the iteration scheme. The Picard-Newton iteration has a quadratic convergent ratio, and its solution has second order spatial approximation and first order temporal approximation to the exact solution of the original problem. Numerical tests verify the results of the theoretical analysis, and show the Picard-Newton iteration is more efficient than the Picard iteration.

Keywords: Nonlinearity, iterative acceleration, coupled parabolic hyperbolic system, quadratic convergence, numerical analysis.

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Authors: Isabela Moreira Queiroz

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Slope stability analyses are largely carried out by deterministic methods and evaluated through a single security factor. Although it is known that the geotechnical parameters can present great dispersal, such analyses are considered fixed and known. The probabilistic methods, in turn, incorporate the variability of input key parameters (random variables), resulting in a range of values of safety factors, thus enabling the determination of the probability of failure, which is an essential parameter in the calculation of the risk (probability multiplied by the consequence of the event). Among the probabilistic methods, there are three frequently used methods in geotechnical society: FOSM (First-Order, Second-Moment), Rosenblueth (Point Estimates) and Monte Carlo. This paper presents a comparison between the results from deterministic and probabilistic analyses (FOSM method, Monte Carlo and Rosenblueth) applied to a hypothetical slope. The end was held to evaluate the behavior of the slope and consequent risk analysis, which is used to calculate the risk and analyze their mitigation and control solutions. It can be observed that the results obtained by the three probabilistic methods were quite close. It should be noticed that the calculation of the risk makes it possible to list the priority to the implementation of mitigation measures. Therefore, it is recommended to do a good assessment of the geological-geotechnical model incorporating the uncertainty in viability, design, construction, operation and closure by means of risk management. 

Keywords: Probabilistic methods, risk assessment, risk management, slope stability.

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Authors: Liming Zhang

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There have been different approaches to compute the analytic instantaneous frequency with a variety of background reasoning and applicability in practice, as well as restrictions. This paper presents an adaptive Fourier decomposition and (α-counting) based instantaneous frequency computation approach. The adaptive Fourier decomposition is a recently proposed new signal decomposition approach. The instantaneous frequency can be computed through the so called mono-components decomposed by it. Due to the fast energy convergency, the highest frequency of the signal will be discarded by the adaptive Fourier decomposition, which represents the noise of the signal in most of the situation. A new instantaneous frequency definition for a large class of so-called simple waves is also proposed in this paper. Simple wave contains a wide range of signals for which the concept instantaneous frequency has a perfect physical sense. The α-counting instantaneous frequency can be used to compute the highest frequency for a signal. Combination of these two approaches one can obtain the IFs of the whole signal. An experiment is demonstrated the computation procedure with promising results.

Keywords: Adaptive Fourier decomposition, Fourier series, signal processing, instantaneous frequency

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Authors: Hu Haibo, Tu Chunmei, Fu Chunlei, Fu Li, Mao Fan, Ma Yuan

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Chinese Idioms are a type of traditional Chinese idiomatic expressions with specific meanings and stereotypes structure which are widely used in classical Chinese and are still common in vernacular written and spoken Chinese today. Currently, Chinese Idioms are retrieved in glossary with key character or key word in morphology or pronunciation index that can not meet the need of searching semantically. OCIRS is proposed to search the desired idiom in the case of users only knowing its meaning without any key character or key word. The user-s request in a sentence or phrase will be grammatically analyzed in advance by word segmentation, key word extraction and semantic similarity computation, thus can be mapped to the idiom domain ontology which is constructed to provide ample semantic relations and to facilitate description logics-based reasoning for idiom retrieval. The experimental evaluation shows that OCIRS realizes the function of searching idioms via semantics, obtaining preliminary achievement as requested by the users.

Keywords: Chinese idiom, idiom retrieval, semantic searching, ontology, semantics similarity.

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Authors: Nattapong Techarattanased

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The purposes of this research are to make comparisons in respect of the behaviors on the use of the services of metered taxi classified by the demographic factor and to study the influence of the recognition on service quality having the effect on usage behaviors of metered taxi services of consumers in Bangkok Metropolitan Areas. The samples used in this research were 400 metered taxi service users in Bangkok Metropolitan Areas and questionnaire was used as the tool for collecting the data. Analysis statistics are mean and multiple regression analysis. Results of the research revealed that the consumers recognize the overall quality of services in each aspect include tangible aspects of the service, responses to customers, assurance on the confidence, understanding and knowing of customers which is rated at the moderate level except the aspect of the assurance on the confidence and trustworthiness which are rated at a high level. For the result of hypothetical test, it is found that the quality in providing the services on the aspect of the assurance given to the customers has the effect on the usage behaviors of metered taxi services and the aspect of the frequency on the use of the services per month which in this connection. Such variable can forecast at one point nine percent (1.9%). In addition, quality in providing the services and the aspect of the responses to customers have the effect on the behaviors on the use of metered taxi services on the aspect of the expenses on the use of services per month which in this connection, such variable can forecast at two point one percent (2.1%).

Keywords: Consumer behavior, metered taxi, satisfaction, service quality.

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Authors: Kostyantyn Yermashov, Karsten Wolke, Karl Hayo Siemsen

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Domain-specific languages describe specific solutions to problems in the application domain. Traditionally they form a solution composing black-box abstractions together. This, usually, involves non-deep transformations over the target model. In this paper we argue that it is potentially powerful to operate with grey-box abstractions to build a domain-specific software system. We present parametric code templates as grey-box abstractions and conceptual tools to encapsulate and manipulate these templates. Manipulations introduce template-s merging routines and can be defined in a generic way. This involves reasoning mechanisms at the code templates level. We introduce the concept of Neurath Modelling Language (NML) that operates with parametric code templates and specifies a visualisation mapping mechanism for target models. Finally we provide an example of calculating a domain-specific software system with predefined NML elements.

Keywords: software design, code templates, domain-specific languages, modelling languages, generic tools

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Authors: Kuen-Long Leu, Yung-Yuan Chen, Chin-Long Wey, Jwu-E Chen, Chung-Hsien Hsu

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The increasing importance of FlexRay systems in automotive domain inspires unceasingly relative researches. One primary issue among researches is to verify the reliability of FlexRay systems either from protocol aspect or from system design aspect. However, research rarely discusses the effect of network topology on the system reliability. In this paper, we will illustrate how to model the reliability of FlexRay systems with various network topologies by a well-known probabilistic reasoning technology, Bayesian Network. In this illustration, we especially investigate the effectiveness of error containment built in star topology and fault-tolerant midpoint synchronization algorithm adopted in FlexRay communication protocol. Through a FlexRay steer-by-wire case study, the influence of different topologies on the failure probability of the FlexRay steerby- wire system is demonstrated. The notable value of this research is to show that the Bayesian Network inference is a powerful and feasible method for the reliability assessment of FlexRay systems.

Keywords: Bayesian Network, FlexRay, fault tolerance, network topology, reliability.

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Authors: Linnea Stenliden

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The aim of this paper is to understand emerging learning conditions, when a visual analytics is implemented and used in K 12 (education). To date, little attention has been paid to the role visual analytics (digital media and technology that highlight visual data communication in order to support analytical tasks) can play in education, and to the extent to which these tools can process actionable data for young students. This study was conducted in three public K 12 schools, in four social science classes with students aged 10 to 13 years, over a period of two to four weeks at each school. Empirical data were generated using video observations and analyzed with help of metaphors within Actor-network theory (ANT). The learning conditions are found to be distinguished by broad complexity, characterized by four dimensions. These emerge from the actors’ deeply intertwined relations in the activities. The paper argues in relation to the found dimensions that novel approaches to teaching and learning could benefit students’ knowledge building as they work with visual analytics, analyzing visualized data.

Keywords: Analytical reasoning, complexity, data use, problem space, visual analytics, visual storytelling, translation.

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Authors: Nael Y. Zabel, Maged E. Georgy, Moheeb E. Ibrahim

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A knowledge-based expert system with the acronym RASPE is developed as an application tool to help decision makers in construction companies make informed decisions about managing risks in pipeline construction projects. Choosing to use expert systems from all available artificial intelligence techniques is due to the fact that an expert system is more suited to representing a domain’s knowledge and the reasoning behind domain-specific decisions. The knowledge-based expert system can capture the knowledge in the form of conditional rules which represent various project scenarios and potential risk mitigation/response actions. The built knowledge in RASPE is utilized through the underlying inference engine that allows the firing of rules relevant to a project scenario into consideration. Paper provides an overview of the knowledge acquisition process and goes about describing the knowledge structure which is divided up into four major modules. The paper shows one module in full detail for illustration purposes and concludes with insightful remarks.

Keywords: Expert System, Knowledge Management, Pipeline Projects, Risk Mismanagement.

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Authors: Abdullah M. Algarni, Yashwant K. Malaiya

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Some of the key aspects of vulnerability—discovery, dissemination, and disclosure—have received some attention recently. However, the role of interaction among the vulnerability discoverers and vulnerability acquirers has not yet been adequately addressed. Our study suggests that a major percentage of discoverers, a majority in some cases, are unaffiliated with the software developers and thus are free to disseminate the vulnerabilities they discover in any way they like. As a result, multiple vulnerability markets have emerged. In some of these markets, the exchange is regulated, but in others, there is little or no regulation. In recent vulnerability discovery literature, the vulnerability discoverers have remained anonymous individuals. Although there has been an attempt to model the level of their efforts, information regarding their identities, modes of operation, and what they are doing with the discovered vulnerabilities has not been explored.

Reports of buying and selling of the vulnerabilities are now appearing in the press; however, the existence of such markets requires validation, and the natures of the markets need to be analyzed. To address this need, we have attempted to collect detailed information. We have identified the most prolific vulnerability discoverers throughout the past decade and examined their motivation and methods. A large percentage of these discoverers are located in Eastern and Western Europe and in the Far East. We have contacted several of them in order to collect firsthand information regarding their techniques, motivations, and involvement in the vulnerability markets. We examine why many of the discoverers appear to retire after a highly successful vulnerability-finding career. The paper identifies the actual vulnerability markets, rather than the hypothetical ideal markets that are often examined. The emergence of worldwide government agencies as vulnerability buyers has significant implications. We discuss potential factors that can impact the risk to society and the need for detailed exploration.

Keywords: Risk management, software security, vulnerability discoverers, vulnerability markets.

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Authors: Sotirios Raptis

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Bayesian reasoning (BR) or Linear (Auto) Regression (AR/LR) can predict different sources of data using priors or other data, and can link social service demands in cohorts, while their consideration in isolation (self-prediction) may lead to service misuse ignoring the context. The paper advocates that BR with Binomial (BD), or Normal (ND) models or raw data (.D) as probabilistic updates can be compared to AR/LR to link services in Scotland and reduce cost by sharing healthcare (HC) resources. Clustering, cross-correlation, along with BR, LR, AR can better predict demand. Insurance companies and policymakers can link such services, and examples include those offered to the elderly, and low-income people, smoking-related services linked to mental health services, or epidemiological weight in children. 22 service packs are used that are published by Public Health Services (PHS) Scotland and Scottish Government (SG) from 1981 to 2019, broken into 110 year series (factors), joined using LR, AR, BR. The Primary component analysis found 11 significant factors, while C-Means (CM) clustering gave five major clusters.

Keywords: Bayesian probability, cohorts, data frames, regression, services, prediction.

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Authors: Danijela Tuljak-Suban, Valter Suban

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Food as perishable goods represents a specific and sensitive part in the supply chain theory, since changing physical or chemical characteristics considerably influence the approach to stock management. The most delicate phase of this process is transportation, where it becomes difficult to ensure the stable conditions which limit deterioration, since the value of the deterioration rate could be easily influenced by the mode of transportation. The fuzzy definition of variables allows one to take these variations into account. Furthermore, an appropriate choice of the defuzzification method permits one to adapt results to real conditions as far as possible. In this article those methods which take into account the relationship between the deterioration rate of perishable goods and transportation by ship will be applied with the aim of (a) minimizing the total cost function, defined as the sum of the ordering cost, holding cost, disposing cost and transportation costs, and (b) improving the supply chain sustainability by reducing environmental impact and waste disposal costs.

Keywords: Perishable goods, fuzzy reasoning, transport by ship, supply chain sustainability.

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Authors: Ines Hamdi, Mohamed Ben Ahmed

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The understanding of the system level of biological behavior and phenomenon variously needs some elements such as gene sequence, protein structure, gene functions and metabolic pathways. Challenging problems are representing, learning and reasoning about these biochemical reactions, gene and protein structure, genotype and relation between the phenotype, and expression system on those interactions. The goal of our work is to understand the behaviors of the interactions networks and to model their evolution in time and in space. We propose in this study an ontological meta-model for the knowledge representation of the genetic regulatory networks. Ontology in artificial intelligence means the fundamental categories and relations that provide a framework for knowledge models. Domain ontology's are now commonly used to enable heterogeneous information resources, such as knowledge-based systems, to communicate with each other. The interest of our model is to represent the spatial, temporal and spatio-temporal knowledge. We validated our propositions in the genetic regulatory network of the Aarbidosis thaliana flower

Keywords: Ontological model, spatio-temporal modeling, Genetic Regulatory Networks (GRNs), knowledge representation.

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