Search results for: Extreme values theory

Authors: Hans H. Diel

Abstract:

In this paper a functional interpretation of quantum theory (QT) with emphasis on quantum field theory (QFT) is proposed. Besides the usual statements on relations between a functions initial state and final state, a functional interpretation also contains a description of the dynamic evolution of the function. That is, it describes how things function. The proposed functional interpretation of QT/QFT has been developed in the context of the author-s work towards a computer model of QT with the goal of supporting the largest possible scope of QT concepts. In the course of this work, the author encountered a number of problems inherent in the translation of quantum physics into a computer program. He came to the conclusion that the goal of supporting the major QT concepts can only be satisfied, if the present model of QT is supplemented by a "functional interpretation" of QT/QFT. The paper describes a proposal for that

Keywords: Computability, Foundation of Quantum Mechanics, Measurement Problem, Models of Physics.

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Authors: A. Rashid, N. Hasan

Abstract:

The present study investigates numerically the phenomenon of vortex-shedding and its suppression in twodimensional mixed convective flow past a square cylinder under the joint influence of buoyancy and free-stream orientation with respect to gravity. The numerical experiments have been conducted at a fixed Reynolds number (Re) of 100 and Prandtl number (Pr) of 0.71, while Richardson number (Ri) is varied from 0 to 1.6 and freestream orientation, α, is kept in the range 0o≤ α ≤ 90o, with 0o corresponding to an upward flow and 90o representing a cross-flow scenario, respectively. The continuity, momentum and energy equations, subject to Boussinesq approximation, are discretized using a finite difference method and are solved by a semi-explicit pressure correction scheme. The critical Richardson number, leading to the suppression of the vortex-shedding (Ric), is estimated by using Stuart-Landau theory at various free-stream orientations and the neutral curve is obtained in the Ri-α plane. The neutral curve exhibits an interesting non-monotonic behavior with Ric first increasing with increasing values of α upto 45o and then decreasing till 70o. Beyond 70o, the neutral curve again exhibits a sharp increasing asymptotic trend with Ric approaching very large values as α approaches 90o. The suppression of vortex shedding is not observed at α = 90o (cross-flow). In the unsteady flow regime, the Strouhal number (St) increases with the increase in Richardson number.

Keywords: bluff body, buoyancy, free-stream orientation, vortex-shedding.

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Authors: Om Parkash, C.P.Gandhi

Abstract:

Probabilistic measures of uncertainty have been obtained as functions of time and birth and death rates in a queuing process. The variation of different entropy measures has been studied in steady and non-steady processes of queuing theory.

Keywords: Uncertainty, steady state, non-steady state, trafficintensity, monotonocity

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Authors: Samar M. Alqhtani, Suhuai Luo, Brian Regan

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Data fusion technology can be the best way to extract useful information from multiple sources of data. It has been widely applied in various applications. This paper presents a data fusion approach in multimedia data for event detection in twitter by using Dempster-Shafer evidence theory. The methodology applies a mining algorithm to detect the event. There are two types of data in the fusion. The first is features extracted from text by using the bag-ofwords method which is calculated using the term frequency-inverse document frequency (TF-IDF). The second is the visual features extracted by applying scale-invariant feature transform (SIFT). The Dempster - Shafer theory of evidence is applied in order to fuse the information from these two sources. Our experiments have indicated that comparing to the approaches using individual data source, the proposed data fusion approach can increase the prediction accuracy for event detection. The experimental result showed that the proposed method achieved a high accuracy of 0.97, comparing with 0.93 with texts only, and 0.86 with images only.

Keywords: Data fusion, Dempster-Shafer theory, data mining, event detection.

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Authors: Bingchun Liu, Pei-Chann Chang, Natasha Huang, Dun Li

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Machine Learning and Data Mining are the two important tools for extracting useful information and knowledge from large datasets. In machine learning, classification is a wildly used technique to predict qualitative variables and is generally preferred over regression from an operational point of view. Due to the enormous increase in air pollution in various countries especially China, Air Quality Classification has become one of the most important topics in air quality research and modelling. This study aims at introducing a hybrid classification model based on information theory and Support Vector Machine (SVM) using the air quality data of four cities in China namely Beijing, Guangzhou, Shanghai and Tianjin from Jan 1, 2014 to April 30, 2016. China's Ministry of Environmental Protection has classified the daily air quality into 6 levels namely Serious Pollution, Severe Pollution, Moderate Pollution, Light Pollution, Good and Excellent based on their respective Air Quality Index (AQI) values. Using the information theory, information gain (IG) is calculated and feature selection is done for both categorical features and continuous numeric features. Then SVM Machine Learning algorithm is implemented on the selected features with cross-validation. The final evaluation reveals that the IG and SVM hybrid model performs better than SVM (alone), Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and K-Nearest Neighbours (KNN) models in terms of accuracy as well as complexity.

Keywords: Machine learning, air quality classification, air quality index, information gain, support vector machine, cross-validation.

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Authors: Refaat M Mohamed, Ayman El-Baz, Aly A. Farag

Abstract:

This paper presents a new approach for the prob-ability density function estimation using the Support Vector Ma-chines (SVM) and the Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithms.In the proposed approach, an advanced algorithm for the SVM den-sity estimation which incorporates the Mean Field theory in the learning process is used. Instead of using ad-hoc values for the para-meters of the kernel function which is used by the SVM algorithm,the proposed approach uses the EM algorithm for an automatic optimization of the kernel. Experimental evaluation using simulated data set shows encouraging results.

Keywords: Density Estimation, SVM, Learning Algorithms, Parameters Estimation.

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Authors: Sarra Ben Hariz, Zied Elouedi, Khaled Mellouli

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The belief K-modes method (BKM) approach is a new clustering technique handling uncertainty in the attribute values of objects in both the cluster construction task and the classification one. Like the standard version of this method, the BKM results depend on the chosen initial modes. So, one selection method of initial modes is developed, in this paper, aiming at improving the performances of the BKM approach. Experiments with several sets of real data show that by considered the developed selection initial modes method, the clustering algorithm produces more accurate results.

Keywords: Clustering, Uncertainty, Belief function theory, Belief K-modes Method, Initial modes selection.

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Authors: T. Atan, T. Ayyıldız, P. Akyol

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The purpose of this study was to examine and compare physical fitness values of students engaged in different team sport branches Totally 60 female, and 60 male athletes, that 20 athletes in each branch which are volleyball, basketball and football participated the study as a volunteer. The mean ages of female and male athletes were 21.20 ±1.87 and 21.61 ± 1.61 respectively. Age, height, body weight, body mass index, flexibility, body fat percentage, 30m sprint, maximum oxygen consumption capacity (MaxVO2) and drop jump values were measured. As a result of measurements, significant differences were found in height, weight, MaxVO2, shuttle run speed between different sports branches in female athletes. In male athletes, height, body weight, flexibility, 30m split speed and drop jump values were found significantly different between sports branches. As a conclusion and as a literature, it can be said that structure of body has to be appropriate with the engaged sports branch. Physical fitness values that required the sports branches can be expressed clearly by increasing the number of subjects.

Keywords: Volleyball, basketball, football, athletes, physical fitness.

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Authors: F. Raouf, M. Taghizadeh

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It is shown that a modified UNIFAC model can be applied to predict solubility of hydrocarbon gases and vapors in hydrocarbon solvents. Very good agreement with experimental data has been achieved. In this work we try to find best way for predicting dimethyl ether solubility in liquid paraffin by using group contribution theory.

Keywords: UNIFAC, Henry's law, Group contribution theory, Solubility.

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Authors: Janet L. Kourik, Peter E. Maher

Abstract:

To investigate the correspondence of theory and practice, a successfully implemented Knowledge Management System (KMS) is explored through the lens of Alavi and Leidner-s proposed KMS framework for the analysis of an information system in knowledge management (Framework-AISKM). The applied KMS system was designed to manage curricular knowledge in a distributed university environment. The motivation for the KMS is discussed along with the types of knowledge necessary in an academic setting. Elements of the KMS involved in all phases of capturing and disseminating knowledge are described. As the KMS matures the resulting data stores form the precursor to and the potential for knowledge mining. The findings from this exploratory study indicate substantial correspondence between the successful KMS and the theory-based framework providing provisional confirmation for the framework while suggesting factors that contributed to the system-s success. Avenues for future work are described.

Keywords: Applied KMS, education, knowledge management (KM), KM framework, knowledge management system (KMS).

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Authors: Benalia Nadia, Bensiali Nadia, Mekki Mounira

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In this paper, we propose an easily computable proximity index for predicting voltage collapse of a load bus using only measured values of the bus voltage and power; Using these measurements a polynomial of fourth order is obtained by using LES estimation algorithms. The sum of the absolute values of the polynomial coefficient gives an idea of the critical bus. We demonstrate the applicability of our proposed method on 6 bus test system. The results obtained verify its applicability, as well as its accuracy and the simplicity. From this indicator, it is allowed to predict the voltage instability or the proximity of a collapse. Results obtained by the PV curve are compared with corresponding values by QV curves and are observed to be in close agreement.

Keywords: least square method, Voltage Collapse, Voltage Stability, PV curve

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Authors: C. Yaiprasert, K. Jaroensutasinee, M. Jaroensutasinee

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To develop a process of extracting pixel values over the using of satellite remote sensing image data in Thailand. It is a very important and effective method of forecasting rainfall. This paper presents an approach for forecasting a possible rainfall area based on pixel values from remote sensing satellite images. First, a method uses an automatic extraction process of the pixel value data from the satellite image sequence. Then, a data process is designed to enable the inference of correlations between pixel value and possible rainfall occurrences. The result, when we have a high averaged pixel value of daily water vapor data, we will also have a high amount of daily rainfall. This suggests that the amount of averaged pixel values can be used as an indicator of raining events. There are some positive associations between pixel values of daily water vapor images and the amount of daily rainfall at each rain-gauge station throughout Thailand. The proposed approach was proven to be a helpful manual for rainfall forecasting from meteorologists by which using automated analyzing and interpreting process of meteorological remote sensing data.

Keywords: Pixel values, satellite image, water vapor, rainfall, image processing.

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Authors: I. Yakubu, Y. Y. Ziggah, C. Yeboah

Abstract:

In the mining environment, tailings dam embankment is among the hazards and risk areas. The tailings dam embankment could fail and result to damages to facilities, human injuries or even fatalities. Periodic monitoring of the dam embankment is needed to help assess the safety of the tailings dam embankment. Artificial intelligence techniques such as fractals can be used to analyse the stability of the monitored dataset from survey measurement techniques. In this paper, the fractal dimension (D) was determined using D = 2-H. The Hurst parameters (H) of each monitored prism were determined by using a time domain of rescaled range programming in MATLAB software. The fractal dimensions of each monitored prism were determined based on the values of H. The results reveal that the values of the determined H were all within the threshold of 0 ≤ H ≤ 1 m. The smaller the H, the bigger the fractal dimension is. Fractal dimension values ranging from 1.359 x 10^-4 m to 1.8843 x 10^-3 m were obtained from the monitored prisms on the based on the tailing dam embankment dataset used. The ranges of values obtained indicate that the tailings dam embankment is stable.

Keywords: Hurst parameter, fractal dimension, tailings dam embankment, surveyed dataset.

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Authors: Nassima Cheikh, Abdelmadjid Cheikh, Said Hamou

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The objective of this work which is based on the approach of simultaneous engineering is to contribute to the development of a CIM tool for the synthesis of functional design dimensions expressed by average values and tolerance intervals. In this paper, the dispersions method known as the Δl method which proved reliable in the simulation of manufacturing dimensions is used to develop a methodology for the automation of the simulation. This methodology is constructed around three procedures. The first procedure executes the verification of the functional requirements by automatically extracting the functional dimension chains in the mechanical sub-assembly. Then a second procedure performs an optimization of the dispersions on the basis of unknown variables. The third procedure uses the optimized values of the dispersions to compute the optimized average values and tolerances of the functional dimensions in the chains. A statistical and cost based approach is integrated in the methodology in order to take account of the capabilities of the manufacturing processes and to distribute optimal values among the individual components of the chains.

Keywords: functional tolerances, manufacturing dispersions, simulation, CIM.

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Authors: Rand Alfaris, Mohamed Rushdan MD Said, Mohamed Othman, Fudziah Ismail

Abstract:

This paper is introduced a modification to Diffie- Hellman protocol to be applicable on the decimal numbers, which they are the numbers between zero and one. For this purpose we extend the theory of the congruence. The new congruence is over the set of the real numbers and it is called the “real congruence" or the “real modulus". We will refer to the existing congruence by the “integer congruence" or the “integer modulus". This extension will define new terms and redefine the existing terms. As the properties and the theorems of the integer modulus are extended as well. Modified Diffie-Hellman key exchange protocol is produced a sharing, secure and decimal secret key for the the cryptosystems that depend on decimal numbers.

Keywords: Extended theory of the congruence, modified Diffie- Hellman protocol.

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Authors: Wan Norhasniah Wan Husin, Mohd Ridhuan Tee Abdullah

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Towards the end of 19th century, the discovery of tin and the growing importance of rubber, had led Malaya to once again become the centre of attraction to western colonization, which later on caused the region to be influxed by cheap labour from China and India. One of the factors which attracted the alien communities was the characteristics of social relation offered by the Malays. If one analyzes the history of social relation of the Malays either among themselves or their relation with alien communities, it is apparent that the community places high regards to values such as tolerant, cooperative, respectful and helpful with each other. In fact, all these values are deeply rooted in the value of 'budi'. With the arrival of Islam, the value of 'budi' had been well assimilated with Islamic values thus giving birth to the value of 'budi-Islam'. Through 'budi- Islam', the Malay conducted their dealings with British as well the other communities during the time of peace or conflict. This value is well nurtured due to the geographical circumstances like the fertile, naturally rich land and bountiful marine life. Besides, a set of Malay customs known as 'adat' custom contributed in enhancing the values of budi.

Keywords: Adat System, budi and Islam, Chinese community, Malay community

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Authors: Khalid Pervaiz Akhter, Mahmood Ahmad, Ghulam Murtaza, Ishrat Shafi, Zafar Javed

Abstract:

The objective of this manuscript is to find area under the plasma concentration- time curve (AUC) for multiple doses of salbutamol sulphate sustained release tablets (Ventolin® oral tablets SR 8 mg, GSK, Pakistan) in the group of 18 healthy adults by using computational mathematics techniques. Following the administration of 4 doses of Ventolin® tablets 12 hourly to 24 healthy human subjects and bioanalysis of obtained plasma samples, plasma drug concentration-time profile was constructed. AUC, an important pharmacokinetic parameter, was measured using integrated equation of multiple oral dose regimens. The approximated AUC was also calculated by using computational mathematics techniques such as repeated rectangular, repeated trapezium and repeated Simpson's rule and compared with exact value of AUC calculated by using integrated equation of multiple oral dose regimens to find best computational mathematics method that gives AUC values closest to exact. The exact values of AUC for four consecutive doses of Ventolin® oral tablets were 150.5819473, 157.8131756, 164.4178231 and 162.78 ng.h/ml while the closest values approximated AUC values were 149.245962, 157.336171, 164.2585768 and 162.289224 ng.h/ml, respectively as found by repeated rectangular rule. The errors in the approximated values of AUC were negligible. It is concluded that all computational tools approximated values of AUC accurately but the repeated rectangular rule gives slightly better approximated values of AUC as compared to repeated trapezium and repeated Simpson's rules.

Keywords: Salbutamol sulphate, Area under curve (AUC), repeated rectangular rule, repeated trapezium rule, repeated Simpson's rule.

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Authors: Petar Halachev

Abstract:

Forecasting the values of the indicators, which characterize the effectiveness of performance of organizations is of great importance for their successful development. Such forecasting is necessary in order to assess the current state and to foresee future developments, so that measures to improve the organization-s activity could be undertaken in time. The article presents an overview of the applied mathematical and statistical methods for developing forecasts. Special attention is paid to artificial neural networks as a forecasting tool. Their strengths and weaknesses are analyzed and a synopsis is made of the application of artificial neural networks in the field of forecasting of the values of different education efficiency indicators. A method of evaluation of the activity of universities using the Balanced Scorecard is proposed and Key Performance Indicators for assessment of e-learning are selected. Resulting indicators for the evaluation of efficiency of the activity are proposed. An artificial neural network is constructed and applied in the forecasting of the values of indicators for e-learning efficiency on the basis of the KPI values.

Keywords: artificial neural network, balanced scorecard, e-learning

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Authors: Morteza Farahani, Ahmad Seif, Asadallah Boshra, Hossein Aghaie

Abstract:

Density functional theory (DFT) calculations were performed to calculate aluminum-27, boron-11, and nitrogen-14 quadrupole coupling constant (CQ) in the representative considered model of (6, 0) boron nitride-aluminum nitride nanotube junction (BN-AlNNT) for the first time. To this aim, 1.3 nm length of BNAlN consisting of 18 Al, 18 B, and 36 N atoms was selected where the end atoms capped by hydrogen atoms. The calculated CQ values for optimized BN-AlNNT system reveal different electrostatic environment in the mentioned system. The calculations were performed using the Gaussian 98 package of program.

Keywords: Nanotube Junction, Density functional, Nuclear Quadrupole Resonance.

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Authors: Veronica Diaz Quezada

Abstract:

A study and its preliminary results are presented. The research is descriptive and exploratory and it is still in process. Its objective is to develop an assessment method in the field of fostering values using competence mathematics problem solving. This is part of a more extensive research that aims at contributing to educational integration in Latin America, particularly to the development of proposals to link education for citizenship and the mathematics lessons. This is being carried out by research teams of University of Barcelona-España; University Nacional of Costa Rica; University Autónoma of Querétaro-México; Pontificia University Católica of Perú, University Nacional of Villa María- Argentina and University of Los Lagos-Chile, in the context of Andrés Bello Chair for the Association of Latin American Universities. This research was developed and implemented in Chile in 2016, using mixed research methods. It included interviews and a problem-solving math test with ethical values that was administered to students of the secondary education of the regions of Los Ríos and of the Lakes of Chile. The results show the lack of integration between the teaching of values and science discipline.

Keywords: Citizenship, ethical values, mathematics, secondary school, solving problem.

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Authors: A.Campanile, M. Mandarino, V. Piscopo, A. Pranzitelli

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In the traditional theory of non-uniform torsion the axial displacement field is expressed as the product of the unit twist angle and the warping function. The first one, variable along the beam axis, is obtained by a global congruence condition; the second one, instead, defined over the cross-section, is determined by solving a Neumann problem associated to the Laplace equation, as well as for the uniform torsion problem. So, as in the classical theory the warping function doesn-t punctually satisfy the first indefinite equilibrium equation, the principal aim of this work is to develop a new theory for non-uniform torsion of beams with axial symmetric cross-section, fully restrained on both ends and loaded by a constant torque, that permits to punctually satisfy the previous equation, by means of a trigonometric expansion of the axial displacement and unit twist angle functions. Furthermore, as the classical theory is generally applied with good results to the global and local analysis of ship structures, two beams having the first one an open profile, the second one a closed section, have been analyzed, in order to compare the two theories.

Keywords: Non-uniform torsion, Axial symmetric cross-section, Fourier series, Helmholtz equation, FE method.

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Authors: Hrudaya Ku. Tripathy, B. K. Tripathy, Pradip K. Das

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Knowledge Discovery in Databases (KDD) has evolved into an important and active area of research because of theoretical challenges and practical applications associated with the problem of discovering (or extracting) interesting and previously unknown knowledge from very large real-world databases. Rough Set Theory (RST) is a mathematical formalism for representing uncertainty that can be considered an extension of the classical set theory. It has been used in many different research areas, including those related to inductive machine learning and reduction of knowledge in knowledge-based systems. One important concept related to RST is that of a rough relation. In this paper we presented the current status of research on applying rough set theory to KDD, which will be helpful for handle the characteristics of real-world databases. The main aim is to show how rough set and rough set analysis can be effectively used to extract knowledge from large databases.

Keywords: Data mining, Data tables, Knowledge discovery in database (KDD), Rough sets.

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Authors: Benjamin D. Leiby, Darryl K. Ahner

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This study demonstrates an alternative stochastic imputation approach for large datasets when preferred commercial packages struggle to iterate due to numerical problems. A large country conflict dataset motivates the search to impute missing values well over a common threshold of 20% missingness. The methodology capitalizes on correlation while using model residuals to provide the uncertainty in estimating unknown values. Examination of the methodology provides insight toward choosing linear or nonlinear modeling terms. Static tolerances common in most packages are replaced with tailorable tolerances that exploit residuals to fit each data element. The methodology evaluation includes observing computation time, model fit, and the comparison of known  values to replaced values created through imputation. Overall, the country conflict dataset illustrates promise with modeling first-order interactions, while presenting a need for further refinement that mimics predictive mean matching.

Keywords: Correlation, country conflict, imputation, stochastic regression.

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Authors: Aarthi Chandramohan, M. V. C. Rao

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This paper presents three new methodologies for the basic operations, which aim at finding new ways of computing union (maximum) and intersection (minimum) membership values by taking into effect the entire membership values in a fuzzy set. The new methodologies are conceptually simple and easy from the application point of view and are illustrated with a variety of problems such as Cartesian product of two fuzzy sets, max –min composition of two fuzzy sets in different product spaces and an application of an inverted pendulum to determine the impact of the new methodologies. The results clearly indicate a difference based on the nature of the fuzzy sets under consideration and hence will be highly useful in quite a few applications where different values have significant impact on the behavior of the system.

Keywords: Centroid, fuzzy set operations, intersection, triangular norms , triangular S-norms, union.

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Authors: R.K.Tuli

Abstract:

The objective of the present communication is to develop new genuine exponentiated mean codeword lengths and to study deeply the problem of correspondence between well known measures of entropy and mean codeword lengths. With the help of some standard measures of entropy, we have illustrated such a correspondence. In literature, we usually come across many inequalities which are frequently used in information theory. Keeping this idea in mind, we have developed such inequalities via coding theory approach.

Keywords: Codeword, Code alphabet, Uniquely decipherablecode, Mean codeword length, Uncertainty, Noiseless channel

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Authors: Arvind Bhardwaj, Ajay Gupta, Arun Kanda

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Theory of Constraints has been emerging as an important tool for optimization of manufacturing/service systems. Goldratt in his first book “ The Goal " gave the introduction on Theory of Constraints and its applications in a factory scenario. A large number of production managers around the globe read this book but only a few could implement it in their plants because the book did not explain the steps to implement TOC in the factory. To overcome these limitations, Goldratt wrote this book to explain TOC, DBR and the method to implement it. In this paper, an attempt has been made to summarize the salient features of TOC and DBR listed in the book and the correct approach to implement TOC in a factory setting. The simulator available along with the book was actually used by the authors and the claim of Goldratt regarding the use of DBR and Buffer management to ease the work of production managers was tested and was found to be correct.

Keywords: Drum Buffer Rope (DBR), Optimized ProductionTechnology (OPT), Capacity Constrained Resource (CCR)

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Authors: Alisha Fisher

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Exploring and engaging in intimate, sexual, and romantic relationships carries the opportunity of personal growth, pleasure, connection, and enhancement of well-being. As more and more North Americans begin to consider and engage in romantic and sexual orientations outside of monogamy, the question of their motivations arises. We utilize McClelland's human motivation theory to investigate the intersections of motivational attributes for North Americans engaging in consensual non-monogamous (CNM) relationships. The need for achievement, power, and affiliation all influence and interact with each other within CNM relationships. The interplay of these motivations is vital for CNM relational structures to operate and effectively navigate conflict. Further studies should explore these motivational components within the individuals who practice CNM and examining the differences in various CNM relational structures.

Keywords: Consensual non-monogamy, motivations for non-monogamy, McClelland Motivation theory, CNM.

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Authors: Ahmed T. Farid, Muhammed Rizwan

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Geotechnical study for evaluating soil or rock permeability is a highly important parameter. Permeability values for rock formations are more difficult for determination than soil formation as it is an effect of the rock quality and its fracture values. In this research, the prediction of in situ permeability of limestone rock formations was predicted. The limestone rock permeability was evaluated using Lugeon tests (in-situ packer permeability). Different sites which spread all over the Riyadh region of Saudi Arabia were chosen to conduct our study of predicting the in-situ permeability of limestone rock. Correlations were deducted between the values of in-situ permeability of the limestone rock with the value of the rock quality designation (RQD) calculated during the execution of the boreholes of the study areas. The study was performed for different ranges of RQD values measured during drilling of the sites boreholes. The developed correlations are recommended for the onsite determination of the in-situ permeability of limestone rock only. For the other sedimentary formations of rock, more studies are needed for predicting the actual correlations related to each type.

Keywords: Packer, permeability, rock, quality.

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Authors: Sanghun Lee

Abstract:

Since the advent of the information era, the Internet has brought various positive effects in everyday life. Nevertheless, recently, problems and side-effects have been noted. Internet witch-trials and spread of pornography are only a few of these problems.In this study, problems and causes of malicious replies on internet boards were analyzed, using the key ideas of game theory. The study provides a mathematical model for the internet reply game to devise three possible plans that could efficiently counteract malicious replies. Furthermore, seven specific measures that comply with one of the three plans were proposed and evaluated according to the importance and utility of each measure using the orthogonal array survey and SPSS conjoint analysis.The conclusion was that the most effective measure would be forbidding unsigned user access to malicious replies. Also notable was that some analytically proposed measures, when implemented, could backfire and encourage malicious replies.

Keywords: Conjoint Analysis, Game Theory, Internet, MaliciousReplies, Prisoner's Dilemma

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Authors: A. A. Purohit, M. M. Vaidya, M. D. Kudale

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Among the various developing countries in the world like China, Malaysia, Korea etc., India is also developing its infrastructures in the form of Road/Rail/Airports and Waterborne facilities at an exponential rate. Mumbai, the financial epicenter of India is overcrowded and to relieve the pressure of congestion, Navi Mumbai suburb is being developed on the east bank of Thane creek near Mumbai. The government due to limited space at existing Mumbai Airports (domestic and international) to cater for the future demand of airborne traffic, proposes to build a new international airport near Panvel at Navi Mumbai. Considering the precedence of extreme rainfall on 26^th July 2005 and nearby townships being in a low-lying area, wherein new airport is proposed, it is inevitable to study this complex confluence area from a hydrodynamic consideration under both tidal and extreme events (predicted discharge hydrographs), to avoid inundation of the surrounding due to the proposed airport reclamation (1160 hectares) and to determine the safe grade elevation (SGE). The model studies conducted using the application of unstructured mesh to simulate the Panvel estuarine area (93 km²), calibration, validation of a model for hydraulic field measurements and determine the maxima water levels around the airport for various extreme hydrodynamic events, namely the simultaneous occurrence of highest tide from the Arabian Sea and peak flood discharges (Probable Maximum Precipitation and 26^th July 2005) from five rivers, the Gadhi, Kalundri, Taloja, Kasadi and Ulwe, meeting at the proposed airport area revealed that: (a) The Ulwe River flowing beneath the proposed airport needs to be diverted. The 120m wide proposed Ulwe diversion channel having a wider base width of 200 m at SH-54 Bridge on the Ulwe River along with the removal of the existing bund in Moha Creek is inevitable to keep the SGE of the airport to a minimum. (b) The clear waterway of 80 m at SH-54 Bridge (Ulwe River) and 120 m at Amra Marg Bridge near Moha Creek is also essential for the Ulwe diversion and (c) The river bank protection works on the right bank of Gadhi River between the NH-4B and SH-54 bridges as well as upstream of the Ulwe River diversion channel are essential to avoid inundation of low lying areas. The maxima water levels predicted around the airport keeps SGE to a minimum of 11m with respect to Chart datum of Ulwe Bundar and thus development is not only technologically-economically feasible but also sustainable. The unstructured mesh modeling is a promising tool to simulate complex extreme hydrodynamic events and provides a reliable solution to evolve optimal SGE of airport.

Keywords: Airport, hydrodynamics, hydrographs, safe grade elevation, tides.

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