Search results for: Building stock energy modelling

Authors: Syeda Maria Ali Shah, Asif Mansoor, Talat Sharafat Rehmani, Safia Mirza

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The stock market of any country acts as a predictor of the economy. The spread of the COVID-19 pandemic has severely impacted the global financial markets. Besides, it has also critically affected the economy of Pakistan. In this study, we consider the role of the Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) with regard to the Pakistan Stock Exchange and quantify the impact on macroeconomic variables in presence of COVID-19. The suitable macroeconomic variables are used to quantify the impact of COVID-19 by developing the stochastic model. The sufficiency of the computed model is attained by means of available techniques in the literature. The estimated equations are used to forecast the impact of pandemic on macroeconomic variables. The constructed model can help the policymakers take counteractive measures for restricting the influence of viruses on the Karachi Stock Market.

Keywords: COVID-19, Karachi Stock Market, macroeconomic variables, stochastic model, forecasting.

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Authors: Jian Yao

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To investigate the energy performance of solar shading devices, this paper carried out a survey on the current status of solar shading utilization in buildings in Ningbo and performed building simulations to evaluate the energy savings potential by adopting different solar shading devices. Results show that solar shading utilization in this area is not popular and effective, and should be considered firstly in the design stage since the potential for energy savings is up to 6.8% for residential buildings and 9.4% for commercial buildings.

Keywords: Solar shading, Energy savings, Building design.

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Authors: Mahsa Karimpour, Martin Belusko, Ke Xing, Frank Bruno

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Traditionally, the embodied energy of design choices which reduce operational energy were assumed to have a negligible impact on the life cycle energy of buildings. However with new buildings having considerably lower operational energy, the significance of embodied energy increases. A life cycle assessment of a population of house designs was conducted in a mild and mixed climate zone. It was determined not only that embodied energy dominates life cycle energy, but that the impact on embodied of design choices was of equal significance to the impact on operational energy.

Keywords: Building life cycle energy, embodied energy, energy design measures, low energy buildings.

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Authors: Nadira Kaimova

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In this paper it was examined the influence of margin regulation on stock market volatility in EU 1993 – 2014. Regulating margin requirements or haircuts for securities financing transactions has for a long time been considered as a potential tool to limit the build-up of leverage and dampen volatility in financial markets. The margin requirement dictates how much investors can borrow against these securities. Margin can be an important part of investment. Using daily and monthly stock returns and there is no convincing evidence that EU Regulation margin requirements have served to dampen stock market volatility. In this paper was detected the expected negative relation between margin requirements and the amount of margin credit outstanding. Also, it confirmed that changes in margin requirements by the EU regulation have tended to follow than lead changes in market volatility. For the analysis have been used the modified Levene statistics to test whether the standard deviation of stock returns in the 25, 50 and 100 days preceding margin changes is the same as that in the succeeding 25, 50 and 100 days. The analysis started in May 1993 when it was first empowered to set the initial margin requirement and the last sample was in May 2014. To test whether margin requirements influence stock market volatility over the long term, the sample of stock returns was divided into 14 periods, according to the 14 changes in margin requirements.

Keywords: Levene statistic, Margin Regulation, Stock Market, Volatility.

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Authors: Idil Kanter Otcu

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Nowadays, due to the growing problems of energy supply and the drastic reduction of natural non-renewable resources, the development of new applications in the energy sector and steps towards greater efficiency in energy consumption are required. Since buildings account for a large share of energy consumption, increasing the structural density of buildings causes an increase in energy consumption. This increase in energy consumption means that energy efficiency approaches to building design and the integration of new systems using emerging technologies become necessary in order to curb this consumption. As new systems for productive usage of generated energy are developed, buildings that require less energy to operate, with rational use of resources, need to be developed. One solution for reducing the energy requirements of buildings is through landscape planning, design and application. Requirements such as heating, cooling and lighting can be met with lower energy consumption through planting design, which can help to achieve more efficient and rational use of resources. Within this context, rather than a planting design which considers only the ecological and aesthetic features of plants, these considerations should also extend to spatial organization whereby the relationship between the site and open spaces in the context of climatic elements and planting designs are taken into account. In this way, the planting design can serve an additional purpose. In this study, a landscape design which takes into consideration location, local climate morphology and solar angle will be illustrated on a sample building project.

Keywords: Energy efficiency, landscape design, plant design, xeriscape landscape.

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Authors: M. Cañada-Soriano, C. Aparicio-Fernández, P. Sebastián Ferrer Gisbert, M. Val Field, J.-L. Vivancos-Bono

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The lack of insulation along with the existence of air leakages constitute a meaningful impact on the energy performance of buildings. Both of them lead to increases in the energy demand through additional heating and/or cooling loads. Additionally, they cause thermal discomfort. In order to quantify these uncontrolled air currents, the Blower Door test can be used. It is a standardized procedure that determines the airtightness of a space by characterizing the rate of air leakages through the envelope surface. In this sense, the low-energy buildings complying with the Passive House design criteria are required to achieve high levels of airtightness. Due to the invisible nature of air leakages, additional tools are often considered to identify where the infiltrations take place such as the infrared thermography. The aim of this study is to assess the airtightness of a typical Mediterranean dwelling house, refurbished under the Passive House standard, using the Blower Door test. Moreover, the building energy performance modelling tools TRNSYS (TRaNsient System Simulation program) and TRNFlow (TRaNsient Flow) have been used to estimate the energy demand in different scenarios. In this sense, a sequential implementation of three different energy improvement measures (insulation thickness, glazing type and infiltrations) have been analyzed.

Keywords: Airtightness, blower door, TRNSYS, infrared thermography, energy demand.

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Authors: Antoni Wibowo, Harry Pujianto, Dewi Retno Sari Saputro

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The stock market can provide huge profits in a relatively short time in financial sector; however, it also has a high risk for investors and traders if they are not careful to look the factors that affect the stock market. Therefore, they should give attention to the dynamic fluctuations and movements of the stock market to optimize profits from their investment. In this paper, we present a nonlinear autoregressive exogenous model (NARX) to predict the movements of stock market; especially, the movements of the closing price index. As case study, we consider to predict the movement of the closing price in Indonesia composite index (IHSG) and choose the best structures of NARX for IHSG’s prediction.

Keywords: NARX, prediction, stock market, time series.

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Authors: B. A. Gobin, R. K. Subramanian

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Knowledge modelling, a main activity for the development of Knowledge Based Systems, have no set standards and are mostly done in an ad hoc way. There is a lack of support for the transition from abstract level to implementation. In this paper, a methodology for the development of the knowledge model, which is inspired by both Software and Knowledge Engineering, is proposed. Use of UML which is the de-facto standard for modelling in the software engineering arena is explored for knowledge modelling. The methodology proposed, is used to develop a knowledge model of a knowledge based system for recommending suitable hotels for tourists visiting Mauritius.

Keywords: Domain Modelling, Knowledge Based Systems, Knowledge Modelling, UML.

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Authors: Bahareh Amirjabbari, Nadia Bhuiyan

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In recent decades, the lean methodology, and the development of its principles and concepts have widely been applied in supply chain management. One of the most important strategies of being lean is having efficient inventory within the chain. On the other hand, managing inventory efficiently requires appropriate management of safety stock in order to protect against increasing stretch in the breaking points of the supply chain, which in turn can result in possible reduction of inventory. This paper applies a safety stock cost minimization model in a manufacturing company. The model results in optimum levels and locations of safety stock within the company-s supply chain in order to minimize total logistics costs.

Keywords: Cost, efficient inventory, optimization, safety stock, supply chain

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Authors: U. Şendurur, B. Nazlıoğlu

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Using Turkish data, in this study it is investigated that whether a firm’s ownership structure has an impact on its stock prices after the crisis. A linear regression model is conducted on the data of non-financial firms that are trading in Istanbul Stock Exchange 100 Index (ISE 100) index. The findings show that, all explanatory variables such as inside ownership, largest ownership, concentrated ownership, foreign shareholders, family controlled and dispersed ownership are not very important to explain stock prices after the crisis. Family controlled firms and concentrated ownership is positively related to stock price, dispersed ownership, largest ownership, foreign shareholders, and inside ownership structures have negative interaction between stock prices, but because of the p value is not under the value of 0.05 this relation is not significant. In addition, the analysis shows that, the shares of firms that have inside, largest and dispersed ownership structure are outperform comparing with the other firms. Furthermore, ownership concentrated firms outperform to family controlled firms.

Keywords: Financial crisis, ISE 100 Index, Ownership structure, Stock price.

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Authors: Zainal Abidin Akasah, Maizam Alias, Azuin Ramli

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The safety and health performances aspects of a building are the most challenging aspect of facility management. It requires a deep understanding by the building managers on the factors that contribute to health and safety performances. This study attempted to develop an explanatory architectural safety performance model for stratified low-cost housing in Malaysia. The proposed Building Safety and Health Performance (BSHP) model was tested empirically through a survey on 308 construction practitioners using partial least squares (PLS) and structural equation modelling (SEM) tool. Statistical analysis results supports the conclusion that architecture, building services, external environment, management approaches and maintenance management have positive influence on safety and health performance of stratified low-cost housing in Malaysia. The findings provide valuable insights for construction industry to introduce BSHP model in the future where the model could be used as a guideline for training purposes of managers and better planning and implementation of building management.

Keywords: Building management, stratified low-cost housing, Safety and health model

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Authors: A. A. Azemati, H. Hosseini, B. Shirkavand Hadavand

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By using an adequate thermal barrier coating in buildings the energy saving will be happened. In this study, a range of wall paints with different absorption coefficient in different climates has been investigated. In order to study these effects, heating and cooling loads of a common building with different ordinary paints and paint with mineral coating have been calculated. The effect of building paint in different climatic condition was studied and comparison was done between ordinary paints and paint with mineral insulators in temperate climate to obtain optimized energy consumption. The results have been shown that coatings with inorganic micro particles as insulation reduce the energy consumption of buildings around 14%.

Keywords: Insulator, coating, climate, energy consumption.

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Authors: H. Nejadriahi

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A growing demand for sustainability makes sustainability as one of the significant debates of nowadays. Energy saving is one of the main criteria to be considered in the context of sustainability. Reducing energy use in buildings is one of the most important ways to reduce humans’ overall environmental impact. Taking this into consideration, study of different design strategies, which can assist in reducing energy use and subsequently improving the sustainability level of today's buildings would be an essential task. The sustainability level of a building is highly affected by the sustainability performance of its components. One of the main building components, which can have a great impact on energy saving and sustainability level of the building, is its facade. The aim of this study is to investigate on the role of facade in sustainability enhancement of the contemporary buildings of Iran. In this study, the concept of sustainability in architecture, the building facades, and their relationship to sustainability are explained briefly. Following that, a number of contemporary Iranian buildings are discussed and analyzed in terms of different design strategies used in their facades in accordance to the sustainability concepts. The methods used in this study are descriptive and analytic. The results of this paper would assist in generating a wider vision and a source of inspiration for the current designers to design and create environmental and sustainable buildings for the future.

Keywords: Building facade, contemporary buildings, Iran, sustainability.

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Authors: Stephen C. H. Leung, Defu Zhang

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This paper addresses a stock-cutting problem with rotation of items and without the guillotine cutting constraint. In order to solve the large-scale problem effectively and efficiently, we propose a simple but fast heuristic algorithm. It is shown that this heuristic outperforms the latest published algorithms for large-scale problem instances.

Keywords: Combinatorial optimization, heuristic, large-scale, stock-cutting.

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Authors: Edikan E. Akpanibah, Ogunmodimu Dupe Catherine

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The relevance of geometric Brownian motion (GBM) in modelling the behaviour of stock market prices (SMP) cannot be over emphasized taking into consideration the volatility of the SMP. Consequently, there is need to investigate how GBM models are being estimated and used in financial market to predict SMP. To achieve this, the GBM estimation and its application to the SMP of some selected companies are studied. The normal and log-normal distributions were used to determine the expected value, variance and co-variance. Furthermore, the GBM model was used to predict the SMP of some selected companies over a period of time and the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) were calculated and used to determine the accuracy of the GBM model in predicting the SMP of the four companies under consideration. It was observed that for all the four companies, their MAPE values were within the region of acceptance. Also, the MAPE values of our data were compared to an existing literature to test the accuracy of our prediction with respect to time of investment. Finally, some numerical simulations of the graphs of the SMP, expectations and variance of the four companies over a period of time were presented using MATLAB programming software.

Keywords: Stock Market, Geometric Brownian Motion, normal and log-normal distribution, mean absolute percentage error.

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Authors: Jin Xu, Albert Y.S. Lam, Victor O.K. Li

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Stock portfolio selection is a classic problem in finance, and it involves deciding how to allocate an institution-s or an individual-s wealth to a number of stocks, with certain investment objectives (return and risk). In this paper, we adopt the classical Markowitz mean-variance model and consider an additional common realistic constraint, namely, the cardinality constraint. Thus, stock portfolio optimization becomes a mixed-integer quadratic programming problem and it is difficult to be solved by exact optimization algorithms. Chemical Reaction Optimization (CRO), which mimics the molecular interactions in a chemical reaction process, is a population-based metaheuristic method. Two different types of CRO, named canonical CRO and Super Molecule-based CRO (S-CRO), are proposed to solve the stock portfolio selection problem. We test both canonical CRO and S-CRO on a benchmark and compare their performance under two criteria: Markowitz efficient frontier (Pareto frontier) and Sharpe ratio. Computational experiments suggest that S-CRO is promising in handling the stock portfolio optimization problem.

Keywords: Stock portfolio selection, Markowitz model, Chemical Reaction Optimization, Sharpe ratio

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Authors: P. Sankar, P. James Daniel Paul, Siddhant Sahu

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A brief review of the empirical studies on the methodology of the stock market decision support would indicate that they are at a threshold of validating the accuracy of the traditional and the fuzzy, artificial neural network and the decision trees. Many researchers have been attempting to compare these models using various data sets worldwide. However, the research community is on the way to the conclusive confidence in the emerged models. This paper attempts to use the automotive sector stock prices from National Stock Exchange (NSE), India and analyze them for the intra-sectorial support for stock market decisions. The study identifies the significant variables and their lags which affect the price of the stocks using OLS analysis and decision tree classifiers.

Keywords: Indian Automotive Sector, Stock Market Decisions, Equity Portfolio Analysis, Decision Tree Classifiers, Statistical Data Analysis.

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Authors: B. K. Yeoh, Z. Arsad, C. W. Hooy

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This paper tests the level of market integration between Malaysia and Singapore stock markets with the world market. Kalman Filter (KF) methodology is used on the International Capital Asset Pricing Model (ICAPM) and the pricing errors estimated within the framework of ICAPM are used as a measure of market integration or segmentation. The advantage of the KF technique is that it allows for time-varying coefficients in estimating ICAPM and hence able to capture the varying degree of market integration. Empirical results show clear evidence of varying degree of market integration for both case of Malaysia and Singapore. Furthermore, the results show that the changes in the level of market integration are found to coincide with certain economic events that have taken placed. The findings certainly provide evidence on the practicability of the KF technique to estimate stock markets integration. In the comparison between Malaysia and Singapore stock market, the result shows that the trends of the market integration indices for Malaysia and Singapore look similar through time but the magnitude is notably different with the Malaysia stock market showing greater degree of market integration. Finally, significant evidence of varying degree of market integration shows the inappropriate use of OLS in estimating the level of market integration.

Keywords: ICAPM, Kalman filter, stock market integration.

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Authors: Yu J. Chiu, Chia H. Yeh

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Innovation is more important in any companies. However, it is not easy to measure the innovation performance correctly. Patent is one of measuring index nowadays. This paper wants to purpose an approach for valuing patents based on market reaction to patent infringement litigations. The interesting phenomenon is found from collection of patent infringement litigation events. That is if any patent litigation event occurs the stock value will follow changing. The plaintiffs- stock value raises some percentage. According to this interesting phenomenon, the relationship between patent litigation and stock value is tested and verified. And then, the stock value variation is used to deduce the infringed patents- value. The purpose of this study is providing another concept model to evaluate the infringed patents. This study can provide a decision assist system to help drafting patent litigation strategy and determine the technology value

Keywords: Patent valuation, infringement litigations, stock value, artificial neural networks.

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Authors: Mouataz Zreika, Maria Estela Varua

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Stock investment decisions are often made based on current events of the global economy and the analysis of historical data. Conversely, visual representation could assist investors’ gain deeper understanding and better insight on stock market trends more efficiently. The trend analysis is based on long-term data collection. The study adopts a hybrid method that combines the Clustering algorithm and Force-directed algorithm to overcome the scalability problem when visualizing large data. This method exemplifies the potential relationships between each stock, as well as determining the degree of strength and connectivity, which will provide investors another understanding of the stock relationship for reference. Information derived from visualization will also help them make an informed decision. The results of the experiments show that the proposed method is able to produced visualized data aesthetically by providing clearer views for connectivity and edge weights.

Keywords: Clustering, force-directed, graph drawing, stock investment analysis.

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Authors: Kung-Jen Tu, Danny Vernatha

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To assist individual departments within universities in their energy management tasks, this study explores the application of Building Information Modeling in establishing the ‘BIM based Energy Management Support System’ (BIM-EMSS). The BIM-EMSS consists of six components: (1) sensors installed for each occupant and each equipment, (2) electricity sub-meters (constantly logging lighting, HVAC, and socket electricity consumptions of each room), (3) BIM models of all rooms within individual departments’ facilities, (4) data warehouse (for storing occupancy status and logged electricity consumption data), (5) building energy management system that provides energy managers with various energy management functions, and (6) energy simulation tool (such as eQuest) that generates real time 'standard energy consumptions' data against which 'actual energy consumptions' data are compared and energy efficiency evaluated. Through the building energy management system, the energy manager is able to (a) have 3D visualization (BIM model) of each room, in which the occupancy and equipment status detected by the sensors and the electricity consumptions data logged are displayed constantly; (b) perform real time energy consumption analysis to compare the actual and standard energy consumption profiles of a space; (c) obtain energy consumption anomaly detection warnings on certain rooms so that energy management corrective actions can be further taken (data mining technique is employed to analyze the relation between space occupancy pattern with current space equipment setting to indicate an anomaly, such as when appliances turn on without occupancy); and (d) perform historical energy consumption analysis to review monthly and annually energy consumption profiles and compare them against historical energy profiles. The BIM-EMSS was further implemented in a research lab in the Department of Architecture of NTUST in Taiwan and implementation results presented to illustrate how it can be used to assist individual departments within universities in their energy management tasks.

Keywords: Sensor, electricity sub-meters, database, energy anomaly detection.

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Authors: Sang Hoon Kang, Seong-Min Yoon

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Little attention has been paid to information transmission between the portfolios of large stocks and small stocks in the Korean stock market. This study investigates the return and volatility transmission mechanisms between large and small stocks in the Korea Exchange (KRX). This study also explores whether bad news in the large stock market leads to a volatility of the small stock market that is larger than the good news volatility of the large stock market. By employing the Granger causality test, we found unidirectional return transmissions from the large stocks to medium and small stocks. This evidence indicates that pat information about the large stocks has a better ability to predict the returns of the medium and small stocks in the Korean stock market. Moreover, by using the asymmetric GARCH-BEKK model, we observed the unidirectional relationship of asymmetric volatility transmission from large stocks to the medium and small stocks. This finding suggests that volatility in the medium and small stocks following a negative shock in the large stocks is larger than that following a positive shock in the large stocks.

Keywords: Asymmetric GARCH-BEKK model, Asymmetric volatility transmission, Causality, Korean stock market, Spillover effect

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Authors: Robert H. Crawford, André Stephan

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Certifications such as the Passive House Standard aim to reduce the final space heating energy demand of residential buildings. Space conditioning, notably heating, is responsible for nearly 70% of final residential energy consumption in Europe. There is therefore significant scope for the reduction of energy consumption through improvements to the energy efficiency of residential buildings. However, these certifications totally overlook the energy embodied in the building materials used to achieve this greater operational energy efficiency. The large amount of insulation and the triple-glazed high efficiency windows require a significant amount of energy to manufacture. While some previous studies have assessed the life cycle energy demand of passive houses, including their embodied energy, these rely on incomplete assessment techniques which greatly underestimate embodied energy and can lead to misleading conclusions. This paper analyses the embodied and operational energy demands of a case study passive house using a comprehensive hybrid analysis technique to quantify embodied energy. Results show that the embodied energy is much more significant than previously thought. Also, compared to a standard house with the same geometry, structure, finishes and number of people, a passive house can use more energy over 80 years, mainly due to the additional materials required. Current building energy efficiency certifications should widen their system boundaries to include embodied energy in order to reduce the life cycle energy demand of residential buildings.

Keywords: Embodied energy, Hybrid analysis, Life cycle energy analysis, Passive house.

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Authors: V. Koci, J. Madera, R. Cerny

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Calculations of energy efficiency of several AACbased building envelopes under different climatic conditions are presented. As thermal insulating materials, expanded polystyrene and hydrophobic and hydrophilic mineral wools are assumed. The computations are accomplished using computer code HEMOT developed at Department of Materials Engineering, Faculty of Civil Engineering at the Czech Technical University in Prague. The climatic data of Athens, Kazan, Oslo, Prague and Reykjavík are obtained using METEONORM software.

Keywords: climatic conditions, computational simulation, energy efficiency, thermal insulation

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Authors: Y.C. Yeh, Y.S. Tsay, C.M. Chiang

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A good green building design project, designers should consider not only energy consumption, but also healthy and comfortable needs of inhabitants. In recent years, the Taiwan government paid attentions on both carbon reduction and indoor air quality issues, which be presented in the legislation of Building Codes and other regulations. Taiwan located in hot and humid climates, dampness in buildings leads to significant microbial pollution and building damage. This means that the high temperature and humidity present a serious indoor air quality issue. The interactions between vapor transfers and energy fluxes are essential for the whole building Heat Air and Moisture (HAM) response. However, a simulation tool with short calculation time, property accuracy and interface is needed for practical building design processes. In this research, we consider the vapor transfer phenomenon of building materials as well as temperature and humidity and energy consumption in a building space. The simulation bases on the EMPD method, which was performed by EnergyPlus, a simulation tool developed by DOE, to simulate the indoor moisture variation in a one-zone residential unit based on the Effective Moisture Penetration Depth Method, which is more suitable for practical building design processes.

Keywords: Effective Moisture Penetration Depth Method, Moisture Buffering Effect, Interior Material, Green Material, EnergyPlus

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Authors: Farid Vahedi

Abstract:

There is a great deal of interest in constructing Double Skin Facade (DSF) structures which are considered as modern movement in field of Energy Conservation, renewable energies, and Architecture design. This trend provides many conclusive alternatives which are frequently associated with sustainable building. In this paper a building with Double Skin Facade is considered in the semiarid climate of Tehran, Iran, in order to consider the DSF-s performance during hot seasons. Mathematical formulations calculate solar heat gain by the external skin. Moreover, Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) simulations were performed on the case study building to enhance effectiveness of the facade. The conclusion divulged difference of gained energy by the cavity and room with and without blind and louvers. Some solutions were introduced to surge the performance of natural ventilation by plunging the cooling loads in summer.

Keywords: Double Skin Façade Buildings, Energy Conservation, Renewable Energy, Natural Ventilation, Semi-arid Climate.

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Authors: A. Iqbal, N. Khalid, S. Rafiq

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The interrelationship between international stock markets has been a key study area among the financial market researchers for international portfolio management and risk measurement. The characteristics of security returns and their dynamics play a vital role in the financial market theory. This study is an attempt to find out the dynamic linkages among the equity market of USA and emerging markets of Pakistan and India using daily data covering the period of January 2003–December 2009. The study utilizes Johansen (Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12, 1988) and Johansen and Juselius (Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 52, 1990) cointegration procedure for long run relationship and Granger-causality tests based on Toda and Yamamoto (Journal of Econometrics, 66, 1995) methodology. No cointegration was found among stock markets of USA, Pakistan and India, while Granger-causality test showed the evidence of unidirectional causality running from New York stock exchange to Bombay and Karachi stock exchanges.

Keywords: Causality, Cointegration, India, Pakistan, Stock Markets, US.

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Authors: Ebrahim Abbasi, Amir Abouec

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In this research, the researchers have managed to design a model to investigate the current trend of stock price of the "IRAN KHODRO corporation" at Tehran Stock Exchange by utilizing an Adaptive Neuro - Fuzzy Inference system. For the Longterm Period, a Neuro-Fuzzy with two Triangular membership functions and four independent Variables including trade volume, Dividend Per Share (DPS), Price to Earning Ratio (P/E), and also closing Price and Stock Price fluctuation as an dependent variable are selected as an optimal model. For the short-term Period, a neureo – fuzzy model with two triangular membership functions for the first quarter of a year, two trapezoidal membership functions for the Second quarter of a year, two Gaussian combination membership functions for the third quarter of a year and two trapezoidal membership functions for the fourth quarter of a year were selected as an optimal model for the stock price forecasting. In addition, three independent variables including trade volume, price to earning ratio, closing Stock Price and a dependent variable of stock price fluctuation were selected as an optimal model. The findings of the research demonstrate that the trend of stock price could be forecasted with the lower level of error.

Keywords: Stock Price forecast, membership functions, Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System, trade volume, P/E, DPS.

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Authors: Vinko Lešić, Mario Vašak, Anita Martinčević, Marko Gulin, Antonio Starčić, Hrvoje Novak

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With 40% of total world energy consumption, building systems are developing into technically complex large energy consumers suitable for application of sophisticated power management approaches to largely increase the energy efficiency and even make them active energy market participants. Centralized control system of building heating and cooling managed by economically-optimal model predictive control shows promising results with estimated 30% of energy efficiency increase. The research is focused on implementation of such a method on a case study performed on two floors of our faculty building with corresponding sensors wireless data acquisition, remote heating/cooling units and central climate controller. Building walls are mathematically modeled with corresponding material types, surface shapes and sizes. Models are then exploited to predict thermal characteristics and changes in different building zones. Exterior influences such as environmental conditions and weather forecast, people behavior and comfort demands are all taken into account for deriving price-optimal climate control. Finally, a DC microgrid with photovoltaics, wind turbine, supercapacitor, batteries and fuel cell stacks is added to make the building a unit capable of active participation in a price-varying energy market. Computational burden of applying model predictive control on such a complex system is relaxed through a hierarchical decomposition of the microgrid and climate control, where the former is designed as higher hierarchical level with pre-calculated price-optimal power flows control, and latter is designed as lower level control responsible to ensure thermal comfort and exploit the optimal supply conditions enabled by microgrid energy flows management. Such an approach is expected to enable the inclusion of more complex building subsystems into consideration in order to further increase the energy efficiency.

Keywords: Energy-efficient buildings, Hierarchical model predictive control, Microgrid power flow optimization, Price-optimal building climate control.

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Authors: S. Zouari, H. Daoud, M. Loulou, P. Loumeau, N. Masmoudi

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A wideband 2-1-1 cascaded ΣΔ modulator with a single-bit quantizer in the two first stages and a 4-bit quantizer in the final stage is developed. To reduce sensitivity of digital-to-analog converter (DAC) nonlinearities in the feedback of the last stage, dynamic element matching (DEM) is introduced. This paper presents two modelling approaches: The first is MATLAB description and the second is VHDL-AMS modelling of the proposed architecture and exposes some high-level-simulation results allowing a behavioural study. The detail of both ideal and non-ideal behaviour modelling are presented. Then, the study of the effect of building blocks nonidealities is presented; especially the influences of nonlinearity, finite operational amplifier gain, amplifier slew rate limitation and capacitor mismatch. A VHDL-AMS description presents a good solution to predict system-s performances and can provide sensitivity curves giving the impact of nonidealities on the system performance.

Keywords: behavioural study, DAC nonlinearity, DEM, ΣΔ modulator, VHDL-AMS modelling.

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