**Commenced**in January 2007

**Frequency:**Monthly

**Edition:**International

**Paper Count:**290

# Search results for: loss exceeding probability

##### 290 Multi-Hazard Risk Assessment and Management in Tourism Industry- A Case Study from the Island of Taiwan

**Authors:**
Chung-Hung Tsai

**Abstract:**

Global environmental changes lead to increased frequency and scale of natural disaster, Taiwan is under the influence of global warming and extreme weather. Therefore, the vulnerability was increased and variability and complexity of disasters is relatively enhanced. The purpose of this study is to consider the source and magnitude of hazard characteristics on the tourism industry. Using modern risk management concepts, integration of related domestic and international basic research, this goes beyond the Taiwan typhoon disaster risk assessment model and evaluation of loss. This loss evaluation index system considers the impact of extreme weather, in particular heavy rain on the tourism industry in Taiwan. Consider the extreme climate of the compound impact of disaster for the tourism industry; we try to make multi-hazard risk assessment model, strategies and suggestions. Related risk analysis results are expected to provide government department, the tourism industry asset owners, insurance companies and banking include tourist disaster risk necessary information to help its tourism industry for effective natural disaster risk management.

**Keywords:**
Tourism industry,
extreme weather,
multi-hazard,
vulnerability analysis,
loss exceeding probability,
risk management.

##### 289 Remarks Regarding Queuing Model and Packet Loss Probability for the Traffic with Self-Similar Characteristics

**Authors:**
Mihails Kulikovs,
Ernests Petersons

**Abstract:**

**Keywords:**
Queuing System,
Packet Loss Probability,
Measurement-Based Admission Control (MBAC),
Performanceevaluation,
Quality of Service (QoS).

##### 288 Coverage Probability Analysis of WiMAX Network under Additive White Gaussian Noise and Predicted Empirical Path Loss Model

**Authors:**
Chaudhuri Manoj Kumar Swain,
Susmita Das

**Abstract:**

This paper explores a detailed procedure of predicting a path loss (PL) model and its application in estimating the coverage probability in a WiMAX network. For this a hybrid approach is followed in predicting an empirical PL model of a 2.65 GHz WiMAX network deployed in a suburban environment. Data collection, statistical analysis, and regression analysis are the phases of operations incorporated in this approach and the importance of each of these phases has been discussed properly. The procedure of collecting data such as received signal strength indicator (RSSI) through experimental set up is demonstrated. From the collected data set, empirical PL and RSSI models are predicted with regression technique. Furthermore, with the aid of the predicted PL model, essential parameters such as PL exponent as well as the coverage probability of the network are evaluated. This research work may assist in the process of deployment and optimisation of any cellular network significantly.

**Keywords:**
WiMAX,
RSSI,
path loss,
coverage probability,
regression analysis.

##### 287 Probability of Globality

**Authors:**
Eva Eggeling,
Dieter W. Fellner,
Torsten Ullrich

**Abstract:**

**Keywords:**
global optimization,
probability theory,
probability of
globality

##### 286 Vector Control Using Series Iron Loss Model of Induction, Motors and Power Loss Minimization

**Authors:**
Kheldoun Aissa,
Khodja Djalal Eddine

**Abstract:**

**Keywords:**
Field Oriented Controller,
Induction Motor,
Loss ModelController,
Series Iron Loss.

##### 285 Transmission Loss Allocation via Loss Function Decomposition and Current Projection Concept

**Authors:**
M.R. Ebrahimi,
Z. Ghofrani,
M. Ehsan

**Abstract:**

**Keywords:**
Transmission loss,
loss allocation,
current projectionconcept,
loss function decomposition.

##### 284 Performance Evaluation of a Limited Round-Robin System

**Authors:**
Yoshiaki Shikata

**Abstract:**

**Keywords:**
Limited RR rule,
quantum,
processor sharing,
sojourn
time,
performance measures,
simulation,
loss probability.

##### 283 Performance of Soft Handover Algorithm in Varied Propagation Environments

**Authors:**
N. P. Singh,
Brahmjit Singh

**Abstract:**

**Keywords:**
CDMA,
Correlation coefficient,
Path loss exponent,
Probability of outage,
Soft handover.

##### 282 Video-On-Demand QoE Evaluation across Different Age-Groups and Its Significance for Network Capacity

**Authors:**
Mujtaba Roshan,
John A. Schormans

**Abstract:**

Quality of Experience (QoE) drives churn in the broadband networks industry, and good QoE plays a large part in the retention of customers. QoE is known to be affected by the Quality of Service (QoS) factors packet loss probability (PLP), delay and delay jitter caused by the network. Earlier results have shown that the relationship between these QoS factors and QoE is non-linear, and may vary from application to application. We use the network emulator Netem as the basis for experimentation, and evaluate how QoE varies as we change the emulated QoS metrics. Focusing on Video-on-Demand, we discovered that the reported QoE may differ widely for users of different age groups, and that the most demanding age group (the youngest) can require an order of magnitude lower PLP to achieve the same QoE than is required by the most widely studied age group of users. We then used a bottleneck TCP model to evaluate the capacity cost of achieving an order of magnitude decrease in PLP, and found it be (almost always) a 3-fold increase in link capacity that was required.

**Keywords:**
Quality of experience,
quality of service,
packet loss probability,
network capacity.

##### 281 Evaluation of Expected Annual Loss Probabilities of RC Moment Resisting Frames

**Authors:**
Saemee Jun,
Dong-Hyeon Shin,
Tae-Sang Ahn,
Hyung-Joon Kim

**Abstract:**

Building loss estimation methodologies which have been advanced considerably in recent decades are usually used to estimate socio and economic impacts resulting from seismic structural damage. In accordance with these methods, this paper presents the evaluation of an annual loss probability of a reinforced concrete moment resisting frame designed according to Korean Building Code. The annual loss probability is defined by (1) a fragility curve obtained from a capacity spectrum method which is similar to a method adopted from HAZUS, and (2) a seismic hazard curve derived from annual frequencies of exceedance per peak ground acceleration. Seismic fragilities are computed to calculate the annual loss probability of a certain structure using functions depending on structural capacity, seismic demand, structural response and the probability of exceeding damage state thresholds. This study carried out a nonlinear static analysis to obtain the capacity of a RC moment resisting frame selected as a prototype building. The analysis results show that the probability of being extensive structural damage in the prototype building is expected to 0.01% in a year.

**Keywords:**
Expected annual loss,
Loss estimation,
RC structure,
Fragility analysis.

##### 280 A Practical Scheme for Transmission Loss Allocation to Generators and Loads in Restructured Power Systems

**Authors:**
M.R. Ebrahimi,
M. Ehsan

**Abstract:**

This paper presents a practical scheme that can be used for allocating the transmission loss to generators and loads. In this scheme first the share of a generator or load on the current through a branch is determined using Z-bus modified matrix. Then the current components are decomposed and the branch loss allocation is obtained. A motivation of proposed scheme is to improve the results of Z-bus method and to reach more fair allocation. The proposed scheme has been implemented and tested on several networks. To achieve practical and applicable results, the proposed scheme is simulated and compared on the transmission network (400kv) of Khorasan region in Iran and the 14-bus standard IEEE network. The results show that the proposed scheme is comprehensive and fair to allocating the energy losses of a power market to its participants.

**Keywords:**
Transmission Loss,
Loss Allocation,
Z-bus modifiedmatrix,
current Components Decomposition and Restructured PowerSystems

##### 279 Economic Loss due to Ganoderma Disease in Oil Palm

**Authors:**
K. Assis,
K. P. Chong,
A. S. Idris,
C. M. Ho

**Abstract:**

Oil palm or *Elaeis guineensis* is considered as the golden crop in Malaysia. But oil palm industry in this country is now facing with the most devastating disease called as Ganoderma Basal Stem Rot disease. The objective of this paper is to analyze the economic loss due to this disease. There were three commercial oil palm sites selected for collecting the required data for economic analysis. Yield parameter used to measure the loss was the total weight of fresh fruit bunch in six months. The predictors include disease severity, change in disease severity, number of infected neighbor palms, age of palm, planting generation, topography, and first order interaction variables. The estimation model of yield loss was identified by using backward elimination based regression method. Diagnostic checking was conducted on the residual of the best yield loss model. The value of mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) was used to measure the forecast performance of the model. The best yield loss model was then used to estimate the economic loss by using the current monthly price of fresh fruit bunch at mill gate.

**Keywords:**
Ganoderma,
oil palm,
regression model,
yield loss,
economic loss.

##### 278 Probabilities and the Persistence of Memory in a Bingo-like Carnival Game

**Authors:**
M. Glomski,
M. Lopes

**Abstract:**

Seemingly simple probabilities in the m-player game bingo have never been calculated. These probabilities include expected game length and the expected number of winners on a given turn. The difficulty in probabilistic analysis lies in the subtle interdependence among the m-many bingo game cards in play. In this paper, the game i got it!, a bingo variant, is considered. This variation provides enough weakening of the inter-player dependence to allow probabilistic analysis not possible for traditional bingo. The probability of winning in exactly k turns is calculated for a one-player game. Given a game of m-many players, the expected game length and tie probability are calculated. With these calculations, the game-s interesting payout scheme is considered.

**Keywords:**
Conditional probability,
games of chance,
npersongames,
probability theory.

##### 277 Assessment of Path Loss Prediction Models for Wireless Propagation Channels at L-Band Frequency over Different Micro-Cellular Environments of Ekiti State, Southwestern Nigeria

**Authors:**
C. I. Abiodun,
S. O. Azi,
J. S. Ojo,
P. Akinyemi

**Abstract:**

The design of accurate and reliable mobile communication systems depends majorly on the suitability of path loss prediction methods and the adaptability of the methods to various environments of interest. In this research, the results of the adaptability of radio channel behavior are presented based on practical measurements carried out in the 1800 MHz frequency band. The measurements are carried out in typical urban, suburban and rural environments in Ekiti State, Southwestern part of Nigeria. A total number of seven base stations of MTN GSM service located in the studied environments were monitored. Path loss and break point distances were deduced from the measured received signal strength (RSS) and a practical path loss model is proposed based on the deduced break point distances. The proposed two slope model, regression line and four existing path loss models were compared with the measured path loss values. The standard deviations of each model with respect to the measured path loss were estimated for each base station. The proposed model and regression line exhibited lowest standard deviations followed by the Cost231-Hata model when compared with the Erceg Ericsson and SUI models. Generally, the proposed two-slope model shows closest agreement with the measured values with a mean error values of 2 to 6 dB. These results show that, either the proposed two slope model or Cost 231-Hata model may be used to predict path loss values in mobile micro cell coverage in the well-considered environments. Information from this work will be useful for link design of microwave band wireless access systems in the region.

**Keywords:**
Break-point distances,
path loss models,
path loss exponent,
received signal strength.

##### 276 Performance Evaluation of a Prioritized, Limited Multi-Server Processor-Sharing System That Includes Servers with Various Capacities

**Authors:**
Yoshiaki Shikata,
Nobutane Hanayama

**Abstract:**

We present a prioritized, limited multi-server processor sharing (PS) system where each server has various capacities, and N (≥2) priority classes are allowed in each PS server. In each prioritized, limited server, different service ratio is assigned to each class request, and the number of requests to be processed is limited to less than a certain number. Routing strategies of such prioritized, limited multi-server PS systems that take into account the capacity of each server are also presented, and a performance evaluation procedure for these strategies is discussed. Practical performance measures of these strategies, such as loss probability, mean waiting time, and mean sojourn time, are evaluated via simulation. In the PS server, at the arrival (or departure) of a request, the extension (shortening) of the remaining sojourn time of each request receiving service can be calculated by using the number of requests of each class and the priority ratio. Utilising a simulation program which executes these events and calculations, the performance of the proposed prioritized, limited multi-server PS rule can be analyzed. From the evaluation results, most suitable routing strategy for the loss or waiting system is clarified.

**Keywords:**
Processor sharing,
multi-server,
various capacity,
N priority classes,
routing strategy,
loss probability,
mean sojourn time,
mean waiting time,
simulation.

##### 275 One scheme of Transition Probability Evaluation

**Authors:**
Alexander B. Bichkov,
Alla A. Mityureva,
Valery V. Smirnov

**Abstract:**

**Keywords:**
Path integral,
saddle point method,
semiclassical approximation,
transition probability

##### 274 Evaluation of Best-Fit Probability Distribution for Prediction of Extreme Hydrologic Phenomena

**Authors:**
Karim Hamidi Machekposhti,
Hossein Sedghi

**Abstract:**

The probability distributions are the best method for forecasting of extreme hydrologic phenomena such as rainfall and flood flows. In this research, in order to determine suitable probability distribution for estimating of annual extreme rainfall and flood flows (discharge) series with different return periods, precipitation with 40 and discharge with 58 years time period had been collected from Karkheh River at Iran. After homogeneity and adequacy tests, data have been analyzed by Stormwater Management and Design Aid (SMADA) software and residual sum of squares (R.S.S). The best probability distribution was Log Pearson Type III with R.S.S value (145.91) and value (13.67) for peak discharge and Log Pearson Type III with R.S.S values (141.08) and (8.95) for maximum discharge in Jelogir Majin and Pole Zal stations, respectively. The best distribution for maximum precipitation in Jelogir Majin and Pole Zal stations was Log Pearson Type III distribution with R.S.S values (1.74&1.90) and then Pearson Type III distribution with R.S.S values (1.53&1.69). Overall, the Log Pearson Type III distributions are acceptable distribution types for representing statistics of extreme hydrologic phenomena in Karkheh River at Iran with the Pearson Type III distribution as a potential alternative.

**Keywords:**
Karkheh river,
log pearson type III,
probability distribution,
residual sum of squares.

##### 273 Probability and Instruction Effects in Syllogistic Conditional Reasoning

**Authors:**
Olimpia Matarazzo,
Ivana Baldassarre

**Abstract:**

**Keywords:**
Conditionals,
conditional probability,
conditional syllogism,
inferential task.

##### 272 Probability-Based Damage Detection of Structures Using Kriging Surrogates and Enhanced Ideal Gas Molecular Movement Algorithm

**Authors:**
M. R. Ghasemi,
R. Ghiasi,
H. Varaee

**Abstract:**

Surrogate model has received increasing attention for use in detecting damage of structures based on vibration modal parameters. However, uncertainties existing in the measured vibration data may lead to false or unreliable output result from such model. In this study, an efficient approach based on Monte Carlo simulation is proposed to take into account the effect of uncertainties in developing a surrogate model. The probability of damage existence (PDE) is calculated based on the probability density function of the existence of undamaged and damaged states. The kriging technique allows one to genuinely quantify the surrogate error, therefore it is chosen as metamodeling technique. Enhanced version of ideal gas molecular movement (EIGMM) algorithm is used as main algorithm for model updating. The developed approach is applied to detect simulated damage in numerical models of 72-bar space truss and 120-bar dome truss. The simulation results show the proposed method can perform well in probability-based damage detection of structures with less computational effort compared to direct finite element model.

**Keywords:**
Enhanced ideal gas molecular movement,
Kriging,
probability-based damage detection,
probability of damage existence,
surrogate modeling,
uncertainty quantification.

##### 271 Energy Loss at Drops using Neuro Solutions

**Authors:**
Farzin Salmasi

**Abstract:**

**Keywords:**
Air bubble,
drop,
energy loss,
hydraulic jump,
NeuroSolutions

##### 270 Dual Band Microstrip Patch Antenna for IEEE802.11b Application

**Authors:**
Biplab Bag

**Abstract:**

In this paper, the design of a coaxial feed single layer rectangular microstrip patch antenna for IEEE802.11b application is presented. The proposed antenna is designed by using substrate FR4_epoxy having permittivity of about 4.4 and tangent loss of 0.013. The characteristics of the substrate are designed and to evaluate the performance of modeled antenna using HFSS v.11 EM simulator, from Ansoft. The proposed antenna dual resonant frequency has been achieved in the band of 1.57GHz-1.68GHz (with BW 30 MHz) and 2.25 GHz -2.55GHz (with BW 40MHz). The simulation results with frequency response, radiation pattern and return loss, VSWR, Input Impedance are presented with appropriate table and graph.

**Keywords:**
Microstrip,
Radiation Pattern,
Return Loss,
Tangent Loss,
VSWR.

##### 269 A Stochastic Approach to Extreme Wind Speeds Conditions on a Small Axial Wind Turbine

**Authors:**
Nkongho Ayuketang Arreyndip,
Ebobenow Joseph

**Abstract:**

**Keywords:**
Probability,
Stochastic,
Probability density function,
Turbulence.

##### 268 Microstrip Slot Antenna for Triple Band Application in Wireless Communication

**Authors:**
Biplab Bag

**Abstract:**

In this paper, the design of a coaxial feed single layer rectangular microstrip patch antenna for three different wireless communication band applications is presented. The proposed antenna is designed by using substrate Roger RT/duroid 5880 having permittivity of about 2.2 and tangent loss of 0.0009. The characteristics of the substrate are designed and to evaluate the performance of modeled antenna using HFSS v.11 EM simulator, from Ansoft. The proposed antenna has small in size and operates at 2.25GHz, 3.76GHz and 5.23GHz suitable for mobile satellite service (MSS) network, WiMAX and WLAN applications. The dimension of the patch and slots are optimized to obtain these desired functional frequency ranges. The simulation results with frequency response, radiation pattern and return loss, VSWR, Input Impedance are presented with appropriate table and graph.

**Keywords:**
Microstrip,
Tangent Loss,
MSS,
WiMAX,
WLAN,
Radiation Pattern,
Return Loss,
VSWR.

##### 267 The Possibility-Probability Relationship for Bloodstream Concentrations of Physiologically Active Substances

**Authors:**
Arkady Bolotin

**Abstract:**

**Keywords:**
Possibility distributions,
possibility-probability relationship.

##### 266 An Overview of Handoff Techniques in Cellular Networks

**Authors:**
Nasıf Ekiz,
Tara Salih,
Sibel Küçüköner,
Kemal Fidanboylu

**Abstract:**

Continuation of an active call is one of the most important quality measurements in the cellular systems. Handoff process enables a cellular system to provide such a facility by transferring an active call from one cell to another. Different approaches are proposed and applied in order to achieve better handoff service. The principal parameters used to evaluate handoff techniques are: forced termination probability and call blocking probability. The mechanisms such as guard channels and queuing handoff calls decrease the forced termination probability while increasing the call blocking probability. In this paper we present an overview about the issues related to handoff initiation and decision and discuss about different types of handoff techniques available in the literature.

**Keywords:**
Handoff,
Forced Termination Probability,
Blocking probability,
Handoff Initiation,
Handoff Decision,
Handoff Prioritization Schemes.

##### 265 Probability Distribution of Rainfall Depth at Hourly Time-Scale

**Authors:**
S. Dan'azumi,
S. Shamsudin,
A. A. Rahman

**Abstract:**

**Keywords:**
Goodness-of-fit test,
Hourly rainfall,
Malaysia,
Probability distribution.

##### 264 Considerations for Effectively Using Probability of Failure as a Means of Slope Design Appraisal for Homogeneous and Heterogeneous Rock Masses

**Authors:**
Neil Bar,
Andrew Heweston

**Abstract:**

Probability of failure (PF) often appears alongside factor of safety (FS) in design acceptance criteria for rock slope, underground excavation and open pit mine designs. However, the design acceptance criteria generally provide no guidance relating to how PF should be calculated for homogeneous and heterogeneous rock masses, or what qualifies a ‘reasonable’ PF assessment for a given slope design. Observational and kinematic methods were widely used in the 1990s until advances in computing permitted the routine use of numerical modelling. In the 2000s and early 2010s, PF in numerical models was generally calculated using the point estimate method. More recently, some limit equilibrium analysis software offer statistical parameter inputs along with Monte-Carlo or Latin-Hypercube sampling methods to automatically calculate PF. Factors including rock type and density, weathering and alteration, intact rock strength, rock mass quality and shear strength, the location and orientation of geologic structure, shear strength of geologic structure and groundwater pore pressure influence the stability of rock slopes. Significant engineering and geological judgment, interpretation and data interpolation is usually applied in determining these factors and amalgamating them into a geotechnical model which can then be analysed. Most factors are estimated ‘approximately’ or with allowances for some variability rather than ‘exactly’. When it comes to numerical modelling, some of these factors are then treated deterministically (i.e. as exact values), while others have probabilistic inputs based on the user’s discretion and understanding of the problem being analysed. This paper discusses the importance of understanding the key aspects of slope design for homogeneous and heterogeneous rock masses and how they can be translated into reasonable PF assessments where the data permits. A case study from a large open pit gold mine in a complex geological setting in Western Australia is presented to illustrate how PF can be calculated using different methods and obtain markedly different results. Ultimately sound engineering judgement and logic is often required to decipher the true meaning and significance (if any) of some PF results.

**Keywords:**
Probability of failure,
point estimate method,
Monte-Carlo simulations,
sensitivity analysis,
slope stability.

##### 263 A Forward Automatic Censored Cell-Averaging Detector for Multiple Target Situations in Log-Normal Clutter

**Authors:**
Musa'ed N. Almarshad,
Saleh A. Alshebeili,
Mourad Barkat

**Abstract:**

**Keywords:**
CFAR,
Log-normal clutter,
Censoring,
Probabilityof detection,
Probability of false alarm,
Probability of falsecensoring.

##### 262 Characterization and Modeling of Packet Loss of a VoIP Communication

**Authors:**
L. Estrada,
D. Torres,
H. Toral

**Abstract:**

**Keywords:**
Packet loss,
gap and burst distribution,
Markovchain,
VoIP measurements.

##### 261 Simple Procedure for Probability Calculation of Tensile Crack Occurring in Rigid Pavement – Case Study

**Authors:**
Aleš Florian,
Lenka Ševelová,
Jaroslav Žák

**Abstract:**

Formation of tensile cracks in concrete slabs of rigid pavement can be (among others) the initiation point of the other, more serious failures which can ultimately lead to complete degradation of the concrete slab and thus the whole pavement. Two measures can be used for reliability assessment of this phenomenon - the probability of failure and/or the reliability index. Different methods can be used for their calculation. The simple ones are called moment methods and simulation techniques. Two methods - FOSM Method and Simple Random Sampling Method - are verified and their comparison is performed. The influence of information about the probability distribution and the statistical parameters of input variables as well as of the limit state function on the calculated reliability index and failure probability are studied in three points on the lower surface of concrete slabs of the older type of rigid pavement formerly used in the Czech Republic.

**Keywords:**
Failure,
pavement,
probability,
reliability index,
simulation,
tensile crack.