Search results for: Four Phase Methodology

Authors: Matthew P. Mancini, Vincent Ribiere

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Today’s workers face more numerous and complex challenges and are required to be increasingly interdependent and faster learners. Knowledge sharing activities between people have been understood as a significant element affecting organizational innovation performance. While they do have the potential to spark cognitive conflict, disagreement is important from an organizational perspective because it can stimulate the development of new ideas and perhaps pave the way for creativity, innovation, and competitive advantage. How teams cope with the cognitive conflict dimension of knowledge sharing and the associated interpersonal risk is what captures our attention. Specifically, assertive conflict management strategies have a positive influence on knowledge sharing behaviors, and team psychological safety has a positive influence on knowledge sharing intention. This paper focuses on explaining the impact that these factors have on the shaping of an individual’s decision to engage or not in knowledge sharing activities. To accomplish this, we performed an empirical analysis on the results of our questionnaire about knowledge-sharing related conflict management and team psychological safety in pharmaceutical enterprises located in North America, Europe, and Asia. First, univariate analysis is used to characterize behavior regarding conflict management strategy into two groups. Group 1 presents assertive conflict management strategies and group 2 shows unassertive ones. Then, by using SEM methodology, we evaluated the relationships between them and the team psychological safety construct with the knowledge sharing process. The results of the SEM analysis show that assertive conflict management strategies affect the knowledge sharing process the most with a small, but significant effect from team psychological safety. The findings suggest that assertive conflict management strategies are just as important as knowledge sharing intentions for encouraging knowledge sharing behavior. This paper provides clear insights into how employees manage the sharing of their knowledge in the face of conflict and interpersonal risk and the relative importance of these factors in sustaining productive knowledge sharing activities.

Keywords: Cognitive dissonance, conflict management, knowledge sharing, organizational behavior, psychological safety.

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Authors: S. S. Sharma, Jagannath K, P. R. Prabhu

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Metal matrix composites consists of a metallic matrix combined with dispersed particulate phase as reinforcement. Aluminum alloys have been the primary material of choice for structural components of aircraft since about 1930. Well known performance characteristics, known fabrication costs, design experience, and established manufacturing methods and facilities, are just a few of the reasons for the continued confidence in 7XXX Al alloys that will ensure their use in significant quantities for the time to come. Particulate MMCs are of special interest owing to the low cost of their raw materials (primarily natural river sand here) and their ease of fabrication, making them suitable for applications requiring relatively high volume production. 7XXX Al alloys are precipitation hardenable and therefore amenable for thermomechanical treatment. Al–Zn alloys reinforced with particulate materials are used in aerospace industries in spite of the drawbacks of susceptibility to stress corrosion, poor wettability, poor weldability and poor fatigue resistance. The resistance offered by these particulates for the moving dislocations impart secondary hardening in turn contributes strain hardening. Cold deformation increases lattice defects, which in turn improves the properties of solution treated alloy. In view of this, six different Al–Zn–Mg alloy composites reinforced with silica (3 wt. % and 5 wt. %) are prepared by conventional semisolid synthesizing process. The cast alloys are solution treated and aged. The solution treated alloys are further severely cold rolled to enhance the properties. The hardness and strength values are analyzed and compared with silica free Al – Zn-Mg alloys. Precipitation hardening phenomena is accelerated due to the increased number of potential sites for precipitation. Higher peak hardness and lesser aging time are the characteristics of thermo mechanically treated samples. For obtaining maximum hardness, optimum number and volume of precipitate particles are required. The Al-5Zn-1Mg with 5% SiO₂ alloy composite shows better result.

Keywords: Dislocation, hardness, matrix, thermomechanical, precipitation hardening, reinforcement.

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Authors: Anatoly Krivinsh

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The results of dissertation research "Preventing and  combating corruption in public procurement" are presented in this  publication. The study was conducted 2011 till 2013 in a Member  State of the European Union– in the Republic of Latvia.  Goal of the thesis is to explore corruption prevention and  combating issues in public procurement sphere, to identify the  prevalence rates, determinants and contributing factors and  prevention opportunities in Latvia.  In the first chapter the author analyzes theoretical aspects of  understanding corruption in public procurement, with particular  emphasis on corruption definition problem, its nature, causes and  consequences. A separate section is dedicated to the public  procurement concept, mechanism and legal framework. In the first  part of this work the author presents cognitive methodology of  corruption in public procurement field, based on which the author has  carried out an analysis of corruption situation in public procurement  in Republic of Latvia.  In the second chapter of the thesis, the author analyzes the  problem of corruption in public procurement, including its historical  aspects, typology and classification of corruption subjects involved,  corruption risk elements in public procurement and their  identification. During the development of the second chapter author's  practical experience in public procurements was widely used.  The third and fourth chapter deals with issues related to the  prevention and combating corruption in public procurement, namely  the operation of the concept, principles, methods and techniques,  subjects in Republic of Latvia, as well as an analysis of foreign  experience in preventing and combating corruption. The fifth chapter  is devoted to the corruption prevention and combating perspectives  and their assessment. In this chapter the author has made the  evaluation of corruption prevention and combating measures  efficiency in Republic of Latvia, assessment of anti-corruption  legislation development stage in public procurement field in Latvia. 

Keywords: Prevention of corruption, public purchases.

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Authors: Matthew D. Baffa

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Infrared thermography is a non-destructive test method used to estimate surface temperatures based on the amount of electromagnetic energy radiated by building envelope components. These surface temperatures are indicators of various qualitative building envelope deficiencies such as locations and extent of heat loss, thermal bridging, damaged or missing thermal insulation, air leakage, and moisture presence in roof, floor, and wall assemblies. Although infrared thermography is commonly used for qualitative deficiency detection in buildings, this study assesses its use as a quantitative method to estimate the overall thermal conductance value (U-value) of the exterior above-grade walls of a study home. The overall U-value of exterior above-grade walls in a home provides useful insight into the energy consumption and thermal comfort of a home. Three methodologies from the literature were employed to estimate the overall U-value by equating conductive heat loss through the exterior above-grade walls to the sum of convective and radiant heat losses of the walls. Outdoor infrared thermography field measurements of the exterior above-grade wall surface and reflective temperatures and emissivity values for various components of the exterior above-grade wall assemblies were carried out during winter months at the study home using a basic thermal imager device. The overall U-values estimated from each methodology from the literature using the recorded field measurements were compared to the nominal exterior above-grade wall overall U-value calculated from materials and dimensions detailed in architectural drawings of the study home. The nominal overall U-value was validated through calendarization and weather normalization of utility bills for the study home as well as various estimated heat loss quantities from a HOT2000 computer model of the study home and other methods. Under ideal environmental conditions, the estimated overall U-values deviated from the nominal overall U-value between ±2% to ±33%. This study suggests infrared thermography can estimate the overall U-value of exterior above-grade walls in low-rise residential homes with a fair amount of accuracy.

Keywords: Emissivity, heat loss, infrared thermography, thermal conductance.

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Authors: B. Arzhanov, A. Correia, P. Delgado, J. Meireles

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Quad Flat No-Lead (QFN) packages have become very popular for turners, converters and audio amplifiers, among others applications, needing efficient power dissipation in small footprints. Since semiconductor junction temperature (T_J) is a critical parameter in the product quality. And to ensure that die temperature does not exceed the maximum allowable T_J, a thermal analysis conducted in an earlier development phase is essential to avoid repeated re-designs process with huge losses in cost and time. A simulation tool capable to estimate die temperature of components with QFN package was developed. Allow establish a non-empirical way to define an acceptance criterion for amount of voids in solder interface between its exposed pad and Printed Circuit Board (PCB) to be applied during industrialization process, and evaluate the impact of PCB designs parameters. Targeting PCB layout designer as an end user for the application, a user-friendly interface (GUI) was implemented allowing user to introduce design parameters in a convenient and secure way and hiding all the complexity of finite element simulation process. This cost effective tool turns transparent a simulating process and provides useful outputs after acceptable time, which can be adopted by PCB designers, preventing potential risks during the design stage and make product economically efficient by not oversizing it. This article gathers relevant information related to the design and implementation of the developed tool, presenting a parametric study conducted with it. The simulation tool was experimentally validated using a Thermal-Test-Chip (TTC) in a QFN open-cavity, in order to measure junction temperature (T_J) directly on the die under controlled and knowing conditions. Providing a short overview about standard thermal solutions and impacts in exposed pad packages (i.e. QFN), accurately describe the methods and techniques that the system designer should use to achieve optimum thermal performance, and demonstrate the effect of system-level constraints on the thermal performance of the design.

Keywords: Quad Flat No-Lead packages, exposed pads, junction temperature, thermal management and measurements.

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Authors: R. Sekula

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Epoxy composites are broadly used as an electrical insulation for the high voltage applications since only such materials can fulfill particular mechanical, thermal, and dielectric requirements. However, properties of the final product are strongly dependent on proper manufacturing process with minimized material failures, as too large shrinkage, voids and cracks. Therefore, application of proper materials (epoxy, hardener, and filler) and process parameters (mold temperature, filling time, filling velocity, initial temperature of internal parts, gelation time), as well as design and geometric parameters are essential features for final quality of the produced components. In this paper, an approach for three-dimensional modeling of all molding stages, namely filling, curing and post-curing is presented. The reactive molding simulation tool is based on a commercial CFD package, and include dedicated models describing viscosity and reaction kinetics that have been successfully implemented to simulate the reactive nature of the system with exothermic effect. Also a dedicated simulation procedure for stress and shrinkage calculations, as well as simulation results are presented in the paper. Second part of the paper is dedicated to recent developments on formulations of functional composites for electrical insulation applications, focusing on thermally conductive materials. Concepts based on filler modifications for epoxy electrical composites have been presented, including the results of the obtained properties. Finally, having in mind tough environmental regulations, in addition to current process and design aspects, an approach for product re-design has been presented focusing on replacement of epoxy material with the thermoplastic one. Such “design-for-recycling” method is one of new directions associated with development of new material and processing concepts of electrical products and brings a lot of additional research challenges. For that, one of the successful products has been presented to illustrate the presented methodology.

Keywords: Curing, epoxy insulation, numerical simulations, recycling.

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Authors: Dejana Bouillet, Vlatka Domović

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Both policymakers and researchers recognize that participating in early childhood education and care (ECEC) is useful for all children, especially for those who are exposed to the high risk of social exclusion. Social exclusion of children is understood as a multidimensional construct including economic, social, cultural, health, and other aspects of disadvantage and deprivation, which individually or combined can have an unfavorable effect on the current life and development of a child, as well as on the child’s development and on disadvantaged life chances in adult life. ECEC institutions should be able to promote educational approaches that portray developmental, cultural, language, and other diversity amongst children. However, little is known about the ways in which Croatian ECEC institutions recognize and respect the diversity of children and their families and how they respond to their educational needs. That is why this paper is dedicated to the analysis of the capacities of ECEC professionals to respond to the demands of educational needs of this very diverse group of children and their families. The results obtained in the frame of the project “Models of response to educational needs of children at risk of social exclusion in ECEC institutions,” funded by the Croatian Science Foundation, will be presented. The research methodology arises from explanations of educational processes and risks of social exclusion as a complex and heterogeneous phenomenon. The preliminary results of the qualitative data analysis of educational practices regarding capacities to identify and appropriately respond to the requirements of children at risk of social exclusion will be presented. The data have been collected by interviewing educational staff in 10 Croatian ECEC institutions (n = 10). The questions in the interviews were related to various aspects of inclusive institutional policy, culture, and practices. According to the analysis, it is possible to conclude that Croatian ECEC professionals are still faced with great challenges in the process of implementation of inclusive policies, culture, and practices. There are several baselines of this conclusion. The interviewed educational professionals are not familiar enough with the whole complexity and diversity of needs of children at risk of social exclusion, and the ECEC institutions do not have enough resources to provide all interventions that these children and their families need.

Keywords: children at risk of social exclusion, ECEC professionals, inclusive policies, culture and practices, interpretative phenomenological analysis

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Authors: Marinelle El-Khoury, Lina Bouhaya, Nivine Abbas, Hassan Sleiman

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The road network in the north of Lebanon is a prime example of the lack of pavement design and execution in Lebanon.  These roads show major distresses and hence, should be tested and evaluated. The aim of this research is to investigate and determine the deficiencies in road surface design in Lebanon, and to propose an environmentally friendly asphalt mix design. This paper consists of several parts: (i) evaluating pavement performance and structural behavior, (ii) identifying the distresses using visual examination followed by laboratory tests, (iii) deciding the optimal solution where rehabilitation or reconstruction is required and finally, (iv) identifying a sustainable method, which uses recycled material in the proposed mix. The asphalt formula contains Reclaimed Asphalt Pavement (RAP) in the base course layer and in the asphalt layer. Visual inspection of the roads in Tripoli shows that these roads face a high level of distress severity. Consequently, the pavement should be reconstructed rather than simply rehabilitated. Coring was done to determine the pavement layer thickness. The results were compared to the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO) design methodology and showed that the existing asphalt thickness is lower than the required asphalt thickness. Prior to the pavement reconstruction, the road materials were tested according to the American Society for Testing and Materials (ASTM) specification to identify whether the materials are suitable. Accordingly, the ASTM tests that were performed on the base course are Sieve analysis, Atterberg limits, modified proctor, Los Angeles, and California Bearing Ratio (CBR) tests. Results show a CBR value higher than 70%. Hence, these aggregates could be used as a base course layer. The asphalt layer was also tested and the results of the Marshall flow and stability tests meet the ASTM specifications. In the last section, an environmentally friendly mix was proposed. An optimal RAP percentage of 30%, which produced a well graded base course and asphalt mix, was determined through a series of trials.

Keywords: Asphalt mix, reclaimed asphalt pavement, California bearing ratio, sustainability.

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Authors: N. Hernández Huertas, F. Rojas Mora

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Sounding rockets are aerospace vehicles that were developed in the mid-20th century, and since then numerous investigations have been executed with the aim of innovate in this type of technology. However, the costs associated to the production of this type of technology are usually quite high, and therefore the challenge that exists today is to be able to reduce them. In this way, the main objective of this document is to present the design process of a Colombian aerospace mission capable to reach the thermosphere using low-cost “Candy” type solid fuel engines. This mission is the latest development of the Uniandes Aerospace Project (PUA for its Spanish acronym), which is an undergraduate and postgraduate research group at Universidad de los Andes (Bogotá, Colombia), dedicated to incurring in this type of technology. In this way, the investigations that have been carried out on Candy-type solid fuel, which is a compound of potassium nitrate and sorbitol, have allowed the production of engines powerful enough to reach space, and which represents a unique technological advance in Latin America and an important development in experimental rocketry. In this way, following the engineering iterative design methodology was possible to design a 2-stage sounding rocket with 1 solid fuel engine in each one, which was then simulated in RockSim V9.0 software and reached an apogee of approximately 150 km above sea level. Similarly, a speed equal to 5 Mach was obtained, which after performing a finite element analysis, it was shown that the rocket is strong enough to be able to withstand such speeds. Under these premises, it was demonstrated that it is possible to build a high-power aerospace mission at low cost, using Candy-type solid fuel engines. For this reason, the feasibility of carrying out similar missions clearly depends on the ability to replicate the engines in the best way, since as mentioned above, the design of the rocket is adequate to reach supersonic speeds and reach space. Consequently, with a team of at least 3 members, the mission can be obtained in less than 3 months. Therefore, when publishing this project, it is intended to be a reference for future research in this field and benefit the industry.

Keywords: Aerospace missions, candy type solid propellant engines, design of solid rockets, experimental rocketry, low costs missions.

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Authors: Yudia Mailani Putri, Martalena Purba, B. J. Istiti Kandarina

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Background: Obesity has been recognized as a global health problem. Individuals classified as overweight and obese are increasing at an alarming rate. This condition is associated with psychological and physiological problems. as a person reaches adulthood, somatic growth ceases. At this stage, the human body has developed fully, to a stable state. As the capital of Riau Province in Indonesia, Pekanbaru is dominated by Malay ethnic population habitually consuming cholesterol-rich fatty foods as a daily menu, a trigger to the onset of obesity resulting in high prevalence of degenerative diseases. Research objectives: The aim of this study is elaborating the relationship between high-fat consumption pattern, stress level, physical activity and the incidence of obesity in adult women in Pekanbaru city. Research Methods: Among the combined research methods applied in this study, the first stage is quantitative observational, analytical cross-sectional research design with adult women aged 20-40 living in Pekanbaru city. The sample consists of 200 women with BMI≥25. Sample data is processed with univariate, bivariate (correlation and simple linear regression) and multivariate (multiple linear regression) analysis. The second phase is qualitative descriptive study purposive sampling by in-depth interviews. six participants withdrew from the study. Results: According to the results of the bivariate analysis, there are relationships between the incidence of obesity and the pattern of high fat foods consumption (energy intake (p≤0.000; r = 0.536), protein intake (p≤0.000; r=0.307), fat intake (p≤0.000; r=0.416), carbohydrate intake (p≤0.000; r=0.430), frequency of fatty food consumption (p≤0.000; r=0.506) and frequency of viscera foods consumption (p≤0.000; r=0.535). There is a relationship between physical activity and incidence of obesity (p≤0.000; r=-0.631). However, there is no relationship between the level of stress (p=0.741; r=0.019-) and the incidence of obesity. Physical activity is a predominant factor in the incidence of obesity in adult women in Pekanbaru city. Conclusion: There are relationships between high-fat food consumption pattern, physical activity and the incidence of obesity in Pekanbaru city whereas physical activity is a predominant factor in the occurrence of obesity, supported by the unchangeable pattern of high-fat foods consumption.

Keywords: Obesity, adult, high in fat, stress, physical activity, consumption pattern.

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Authors: Jorge Rodriguez-Guerra, Carlos Calleja, Aron Pujana, Iker Elorza, Ana Maria Macarulla

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Society demands more reliable manufacturing processes capable of producing high quality products in shorter production cycles. New control algorithms have been studied to satisfy this paradigm, in which Fault-Tolerant Control (FTC) plays a significant role. It is suitable to detect, isolate and adapt a system when a harmful or faulty situation appears. In this paper, a general overview about FTC characteristics are exposed; highlighting the properties a system must ensure to be considered faultless. In addition, a research to identify which are the main FTC techniques and a classification based on their characteristics is presented in two main groups: Active Fault-Tolerant Controllers (AFTCs) and Passive Fault-Tolerant Controllers (PFTCs). AFTC encompasses the techniques capable of re-configuring the process control algorithm after the fault has been detected, while PFTC comprehends the algorithms robust enough to bypass the fault without further modifications. The mentioned re-configuration requires two stages, one focused on detection, isolation and identification of the fault source and the other one in charge of re-designing the control algorithm by two approaches: fault accommodation and control re-design. From the algorithms studied, one has been selected and applied to a case study based on an industrial hydraulic-press. The developed model has been embedded under a real-time validation platform, which allows testing the FTC algorithms and analyse how the system will respond when a fault arises in similar conditions as a machine will have on factory. One AFTC approach has been picked up as the methodology the system will follow in the fault recovery process. In a first instance, the fault will be detected, isolated and identified by means of a neural network. In a second instance, the control algorithm will be re-configured to overcome the fault and continue working without human interaction.

Keywords: Fault-tolerant control, electro-hydraulic actuator, fault detection and isolation, control re-design, real-time.

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Authors: H. Shayeghi, H. A. Shayanfar, G. Azimi

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The quality of short term load forecasting can improve the efficiency of planning and operation of electric utilities. Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) are employed for nonlinear short term load forecasting owing to their powerful nonlinear mapping capabilities. At present, there is no systematic methodology for optimal design and training of an artificial neural network. One has often to resort to the trial and error approach. This paper describes the process of developing three layer feed-forward large neural networks for short-term load forecasting and then presents a heuristic search algorithm for performing an important task of this process, i.e. optimal networks structure design. Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) is used to develop the optimum large neural network structure and connecting weights for one-day ahead electric load forecasting problem. PSO is a novel random optimization method based on swarm intelligence, which has more powerful ability of global optimization. Employing PSO algorithms on the design and training of ANNs allows the ANN architecture and parameters to be easily optimized. The proposed method is applied to STLF of the local utility. Data are clustered due to the differences in their characteristics. Special days are extracted from the normal training sets and handled separately. In this way, a solution is provided for all load types, including working days and weekends and special days. The experimental results show that the proposed method optimized by PSO can quicken the learning speed of the network and improve the forecasting precision compared with the conventional Back Propagation (BP) method. Moreover, it is not only simple to calculate, but also practical and effective. Also, it provides a greater degree of accuracy in many cases and gives lower percent errors all the time for STLF problem compared to BP method. Thus, it can be applied to automatically design an optimal load forecaster based on historical data.

Keywords: Large Neural Network, Short-Term Load Forecasting, Particle Swarm Optimization.

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Authors: Pauliasi Tony Fakahau

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This paper provides an overview of the impact of the revenue reform programme on vulnerable communities in the Kingdom of Tonga. Economic turmoil and mismanagement during the late 1990s forced the government to seek technical and financial assistance from the Asian Development Bank to undertake a comprehensive Economic and Public Sector Reform (EPSR) programme. The EPSR is a Western model recommended by donor agencies as the solution to Tonga’s economic challenges. The EPSR programme included public sector reform, private sector growth, and revenue generation. Tax reform was the main tool for revenue generation, which set out to strengthen tax compliance and administration as well as implement a value-added consumption tax. The EPSR is based on Western values and ideology but failed to recognise that Tongan cultural values are important to the local community. Two participant groups were interviewed. Participant group one consisted of 51 people representing vulnerable communities. Participant group two consisted of six people from the government and business sector who were from the elite of Tongan society. The Kakala Research Methodology provided the framework for the research, and the Talanoa Research Method was used to conduct semi-structured interviews in the homes of the first group and in the workplaces of the second group. The research found a heavy burden of the consumption tax on the purchasing power of participant group one (vulnerable participants), having an impact on nearly every financial transaction they made. Participant group one’s main financial priorities were kavenga fakalotu (obligations to the church), kavenga fakafāmili (obligations to the family) and kavenga fakafonua (obligations to cultural events for the village, nobility, and royalty). The findings identified inequalities of the revenue reform, especially from consumption tax, for vulnerable people and communities compared to the elite of society. The research concluded that government and donor agencies need ameliorating policies to reduce the burden of tax on vulnerable groups more susceptible to the impact of revenue reform.

Keywords: Tax reform, Tonga vulnerable community revenue, revenue reform, public sector reform.

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Authors: Dante Jose R. Amisola, Glenford M. Prospero

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'Driving What’s Next' is a strong campaign of the new administration of De La Salle Lipa in promoting social innovation in quality education. The new leadership directs social innovation in quality education in the institutional directions and initiatives to address real-world challenges with real-world solutions. This research under study aims to qualify the commitment of the institution to extend the Lasallian quality human and Christian education to all, as expressed in the Institution’s new mission-vision statement. The Classic Grounded Theory methodology is employed in the process of generating concepts in reference to the documents, a series of meetings, focus group discussions and other related activities that account for the conceptualization and formulation of the new mission-vision along with the new education innovation framework. Notably, Driving What’s Next is the emergent theory that encapsulates the commitment of giving quality human and Christian education to all. It directs the new leadership in driving social innovation in quality education initiatives. Correspondingly, Driving What’s Next is continually resolved through four interrelated strategies also termed as the institution's four strategic directions, namely: (1) driving social innovation in quality education, (2) embracing our shared humanity and championing social inclusion and justice initiatives, (3) creating sustainable futures and (4) engaging diverse stakeholders in our shared mission. Significantly, the four strategic directions capture and integrate the 17 UN sustainable development goals, making the innovative curriculum locally and globally relevant. To conclude, the main concern of the new administration and how it is continually resolved, provide meaningful and fun learning experiences and promote a new way of learning in the light of the 21^st century skills among the members of the academic community including stakeholders and extended communities at large, which are defined as: learning together and by association (collaboration), learning through engagement (communication), learning by design (creativity) and learning with social impact (critical thinking).

Keywords: De La Salle Lipa, Driving What’s Next, social innovation in quality education, DLSL mission - vision, strategic directions.

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Authors: S. Sieniutycz

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This paper unifies power optimization approaches in various energy converters, such as: thermal, solar, chemical, and electrochemical engines, in particular fuel cells. Thermodynamics leads to converter-s efficiency and limiting power. Efficiency equations serve to solve problems of upgrading and downgrading of resources. While optimization of steady systems applies the differential calculus and Lagrange multipliers, dynamic optimization involves variational calculus and dynamic programming. In reacting systems chemical affinity constitutes a prevailing component of an overall efficiency, thus the power is analyzed in terms of an active part of chemical affinity. The main novelty of the present paper in the energy yield context consists in showing that the generalized heat flux Q (involving the traditional heat flux q plus the product of temperature and the sum products of partial entropies and fluxes of species) plays in complex cases (solar, chemical and electrochemical) the same role as the traditional heat q in pure heat engines. The presented methodology is also applied to power limits in fuel cells as to systems which are electrochemical flow engines propelled by chemical reactions. The performance of fuel cells is determined by magnitudes and directions of participating streams and mechanism of electric current generation. Voltage lowering below the reversible voltage is a proper measure of cells imperfection. The voltage losses, called polarization, include the contributions of three main sources: activation, ohmic and concentration. Examples show power maxima in fuel cells and prove the relevance of the extension of the thermal machine theory to chemical and electrochemical systems. The main novelty of the present paper in the FC context consists in introducing an effective or reduced Gibbs free energy change between products p and reactants s which take into account the decrease of voltage and power caused by the incomplete conversion of the overall reaction.

Keywords: Power yield, entropy production, chemical engines, fuel cells, exergy.

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Authors: Wojciech Górecki, Anna Sowiżdżał, Grzegorz Machowski, Tomasz Maćkowski, Bartosz Papiernik, Michał Stefaniuk

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The article shows results of the project which aims at evaluating possibilities of effective development and exploitation of natural gas from argillaceous series of the Autochthonous Miocene in the Carpathian Foredeep. To achieve the objective, the research team develop a world-trend based but unique methodology of processing and interpretation, adjusted to data, local variations and petroleum characteristics of the area. In order to determine the zones in which maximum volumes of hydrocarbons might have been generated and preserved as shale gas reservoirs, as well as to identify the most preferable well sites where largest gas accumulations are anticipated a number of task were accomplished. Evaluation of petrophysical properties and hydrocarbon saturation of the Miocene complex is based on laboratory measurements as well as interpretation of well-logs and archival data. The studies apply mercury porosimetry (MICP), micro CT and nuclear magnetic resonance imaging (using the Rock Core Analyzer). For prospective location (e.g. central part of Carpathian Foredeep – Brzesko-Wojnicz area) reprocessing and reinterpretation of detailed seismic survey data with the use of integrated geophysical investigations has been made. Construction of quantitative, structural and parametric models for selected areas of the Carpathian Foredeep is performed on the basis of integrated, detailed 3D computer models. Modeling are carried on with the Schlumberger’s Petrel software. Finally, prospective zones are spatially contoured in a form of regional 3D grid, which will be framework for generation modelling and comprehensive parametric mapping, allowing for spatial identification of the most prospective zones of unconventional gas accumulation in the Carpathian Foredeep. Preliminary results of research works indicate a potentially prospective area for occurrence of unconventional gas accumulations in the Polish part of Carpathian Foredeep.

Keywords: Autochthonous Miocene, Carpathian Foredeep, Poland, shale gas.

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Authors: Tajinder Pal Singh

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Teaching of mathematics to engineering students is an open ended problem in education. The main goal of mathematics learning for engineering students is the ability of applying a wide range of mathematical techniques and skills in their engineering classes and later in their professional work. Most of the undergraduate engineering students and faculties feels that no efforts and attempts are made to demonstrate the applicability of various topics of mathematics that are taught thus making mathematics unavoidable for some engineering faculty and their students. The lack of understanding of concepts in engineering mathematics may hinder the understanding of other concepts or even subjects. However, for most undergraduate engineering students, mathematics is one of the most difficult courses in their field of study. Most of the engineering students never understood mathematics or they never liked it because it was too abstract for them and they could never relate to it. A right balance of application and concept based teaching can only fulfill the objectives of teaching mathematics to engineering students. It will surely improve and enhance their problem solving and creative thinking skills. In this paper, some practical (informal) ways of making mathematics-teaching application based for the engineering students is discussed. An attempt is made to understand the present state of teaching mathematics in engineering colleges. The weaknesses and strengths of the current teaching approach are elaborated. Some of the causes of unpopularity of mathematics subject are analyzed and a few pragmatic suggestions have been made. Faculty in mathematics courses should spend more time discussing the applications as well as the conceptual underpinnings rather than focus solely on strategies and techniques to solve problems. They should also introduce more ‘word’ problems as these problems are commonly encountered in engineering courses. Overspecialization in engineering education should not occur at the expense of (or by diluting) mathematics and basic sciences. The role of engineering education is to provide the fundamental (basic) knowledge and to teach the students simple methodology of self-learning and self-development. All these issues would be better addressed if mathematics and engineering faculty join hands together to plan and design the learning experiences for the students who take their classes. When faculties stop competing against each other and start competing against the situation, they will perform better. Without creating any administrative hassles these suggestions can be used by any young inexperienced faculty of mathematics to inspire engineering students to learn engineering mathematics effectively.

Keywords: Application based learning, conceptual learning, engineering mathematics, word problem.

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Authors: J. Bartnicka, J. A. Piedrabuena, R. Portilla, L. Moyano - Cuevas, J. B. Pagador, P. Augat, J. Tokarczyk, F. M. Sánchez Margallo

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Orthopaedic surgeries are characterized by a high degree of complexity. This is reflected by four main groups of resources: 1) surgical team which is consisted of people with different competencies, educational backgrounds and positions; 2) information and knowledge about medical and technical aspects of surgery; 3) medical equipment including surgical tools and materials; 4) space infrastructure which is important from an operating room layout point of view. These all components must be integrated and build a homogeneous organism for achieving an efficient and ergonomically correct surgical workflow. Taking this as a background, there was formulated a concept of international project, called “Online Vocational Training course on ergonomics for orthopaedic Minimally Invasive” (Train4OrthoMIS), which aim is to develop an e-learning tool available in 4 languages (English, Spanish, Polish and German). In the article, there is presented the first project research outcomes focused on three aspects: 1) ergonomic needs of surgeons who work in hospitals around different European countries, 2) the concept of structure of e-learning course, 3) the definition of tools and methods for knowledge assessment adjusted to users’ expectation.  The methodology was based on the expert panels and two types of surveys: 1) on training needs, 2) on evaluation and self-assessment preferences. The major findings of the study allowed describing the subjects of four training modules and learning sessions. According to peoples’ opinion there were defined most expected test methods which are single choice test and right after quizzes: “True or False” and “Link elements” The first project outcomes confirmed the necessity of creating a universal training tool for orthopaedic surgeons regardless of the country in which they work. Because of limited time that surgeons have, the e-learning course should be strictly adjusted to their expectation in order to be useful.

Keywords: International e-learning, ergonomics, orthopaedic surgery, Train4OrthoMIS.

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Authors: Renata Martins Pacheco, João Claro

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Wildfires are becoming an increasing concern worldwide, causing substantial social, economic, and environmental disruptions. This situation is especially relevant in Mediterranean-climate regions, present in all the five continents of the world, in which fire is not only a natural component of the environment but also perhaps one of the most important evolutionary forces. The rise in wildfire occurrences and their associated impacts suggests the need for identifying knowledge gaps and enhancing the basis of scientific evidence on how managers and policymakers may act effectively to address them. Considering that the main goal of a systematic map is to collate and catalog a body of evidence to describe the state of knowledge for a specific topic, it is a suitable approach to be used for this purpose. In this context, the aim of this study is to systematically map the research trends in wildfire management practices in Mediterranean-climate regions. A total of 201 wildfire management studies were analyzed and systematically mapped in terms of their: Year of publication; Place of study; Scientific outlet; Research area (Web of Science) or Research field (Scopus); Wildfire phase; Central research topic; Main objective of the study; Research methods; and Main conclusions or contributions. The results indicate that there is an increasing number of studies being developed on the topic (most from the last 10 years), but more than half of them are conducted in few Mediterranean countries (60% of the analyzed studies were conducted in Spain, Portugal, Greece, Italy or France), and more than 50% are focused on pre-fire issues, such as prevention and fuel management. In contrast, only 12% of the studies focused on “Economic modeling” or “Human factors and issues,” which suggests that the triple bottom line of the sustainability argument (social, environmental, and economic) is not being fully addressed by fire management research. More than one-fourth of the studies had their objective related to testing new approaches in fire or forest management, suggesting that new knowledge is being produced on the field. Nevertheless, the results indicate that most studies (about 84%) employed quantitative research methods, and only 3% of the studies used research methods that tackled social issues or addressed expert and practitioner’s knowledge. Perhaps this lack of multidisciplinary studies is one of the factors hindering more progress from being made in terms of reducing wildfire occurrences and their impacts.

Keywords: Management Mediterranean-climate regions, policy, wildfire.

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Authors: António Marques, Graça Guedes

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The Portuguese footwear industry had in the last five years a remarkable performance in the exportation values, the trade balance and others economic indicators. After a long period of difficulties and with a strong reduction of companies and employees since 1994 until 2009, the Portuguese footwear industry changed the strategy and is now a success case between the international players of footwear. Only the Italian industry sells footwear with a higher value than the Portuguese and the distance between them is decreasing year by year. This paper analyses how the Portuguese footwear companies innovate and make innovation, according the classification proposed by the Oslo Manual. Also, analyses the strategy follow in the innovation process and shows the linkage between the type of innovation and the strategy of innovation. The research methodology was qualitative and the strategy for data collection was the case study. The qualitative data will be analyzed with the MAXQDA software. The economic results of the footwear companies studied shows differences between all of them and these differences are related with the innovation strategy adopted. The companies focused in product and marketing innovation, oriented to their target market, have higher ratios “turnover per worker” than the companies focused in process innovation. However, all the footwear companies in this “low-tech” industry create value and contribute to a positive foreign trade of 1.310 million euros in 2013. The growth strategies implemented has the participation of the sectorial organizations in several innovative projects. And it’s obvious that cooperation between all of them is a critical element to the performance achieved by the companies and the innovation observed. The Portuguese footwear sector has in the last years an excellent performance (economic results, exportation values, trade balance, brands and international image) and his performance is strongly related with the strategy in innovation followed, the type of innovation and the networks in the cluster. A simplified model, called “Ace of Diamonds”, is proposed by the authors and explains the way how this performance was reached by the seven companies that participate in the study (two of them are the leaders in the setor), and if this model can be used in others traditional and “low-tech” industries.

Keywords: Footwear industry, innovation strategy, low-tech industry, Oslo Manual.

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Authors: Rajinder Singh, Ram Valluru

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Chain Ladder (CL) method, Expected Loss Ratio (ELR) method and Bornhuetter-Ferguson (BF) method, in addition to more complex transition-rate modeling, are commonly used actuarial reserving methods in general insurance. There is limited published research about their relative performance in the context of Mortgage Insurance (MI). In our experience, these traditional techniques pose unique challenges and do not provide stable claim estimates for medium to longer term liabilities. The relative strengths and weaknesses among various alternative approaches revolve around: stability in the recent loss development pattern, sufficiency and reliability of loss development data, and agreement/disagreement between reported losses to date and ultimate loss estimate. CL method results in volatile reserve estimates, especially for accident periods with little development experience. The ELR method breaks down especially when ultimate loss ratios are not stable and predictable. While the BF method provides a good tradeoff between the loss development approach (CL) and ELR, the approach generates claim development and ultimate reserves that are disconnected from the ever-to-date (ETD) development experience for some accident years that have more development experience. Further, BF is based on subjective a priori assumption. The fundamental shortcoming of these methods is their inability to model exogenous factors, like the economy, which impact various cohorts at the same chronological time but at staggered points along their life-time development. This paper proposes an alternative approach of parametrizing the loss development curve and using logistic regression to generate the ultimate loss estimate for each homogeneous group (accident year or delinquency period). The methodology was tested on an actual MI claim development dataset where various cohorts followed a sigmoidal trend, but levels varied substantially depending upon the economic and operational conditions during the development period spanning over many years. The proposed approach provides the ability to indirectly incorporate such exogenous factors and produce more stable loss forecasts for reserving purposes as compared to the traditional CL and BF methods.

Keywords: Actuarial loss reserving techniques, logistic regression, parametric function, volatility.

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Authors: K. Appasamy, P. Paul

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Mauritius, a developing small-island-state, is facing a recession which is having a considerable economic impact particularly on its construction sector. Further, the presence of foreign entities, both as companies and workers, within this sector is creating a very competitive environment for local firms. This study investigates the key drivers that allow foreign firms to participate in this sector, in particular looking at the international and local tender processes, and the capacity of local industry to participate. This study also looks at how the current set up may hinder the latter’s involvement. The methodology used included qualitative semi-structured interviews conducted with established foreign companies, local companies, and public bodies. Study findings indicate: there is an adequate availability of professional skills and expertise within the Mauritian construction industry but a lack of skilled labour especially at the operative level; projects awarded to foreign firms are either due to their uniqueness and hence lack of local knowledge, or due to foreign firms having lower tender bids; tendering systems and processes are weak, including monitoring and enforcement, which encourages corruption and favouritism; a high lev el of ignorance of this sector’s characteristics and opportunities exists amongst the local population; local entities are very profit oriented and have short term strategies that discourage long term investment in workforce training and development; but most importantly, stakeholders do not grasp the importance of encouraging youngsters to join this sector, they have no long term vision, and there is a lack of mutual involvement and collaboration between them. Although local industry is highly competent, qualified and experienced, the tendering and procurement systems in Mauritius are not conducive enough to allow for effective strategic planning and an equitable allocation of projects during an economic downturn so that the broadest spread of stakeholders’ benefit. It is of utmost importance that all sector and government entities collaborate to formulate strategies and reforms on tender processes and capacity building to ensure fairness and continuous growth of this sector in Mauritius.

Keywords: Construction industry, tender process, international firms, local capacity, Mauritius.

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Authors: T. B. Karu Jayasundara

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The Earth’s gravity is not uniform. The satellite imageries of the Earth’s surface from NASA reveal a number of different gravity anomaly regions all over the globe. When the moon rotates around the earth, its gravity has a major physical influence on a number of regions on the earth. This physical change can be seen by the tides. The tides make sea levels high and low in coastal regions. During high tide, the gravitational force of the Moon pulls the Earth’s gravity so that the total gravitational intensity of Earth is reduced; it is further reduced in the low gravity regions of Earth. This reduction in gravity helps keep the suspended particles such as dust in the atmosphere, sand grains in the sea water for longer. Dramatic differences can be seen from the floating dust in the low gravity regions when compared with other regions. The above phenomena can be demonstrated from experiments. The experiments have to be done in high and low gravity regions of the earth during high and low tide, which will assist in comparing the final results. One of the experiments that can be done is by using a water filled cylinder about 80 cm tall, a few particles, which have the same density and same diameter (about 1 mm) and a stop watch. The selected particles were dropped from the surface of the water in the cylinder and the time taken for the particles to reach the bottom of the cylinder was measured using the stop watch. The times of high and low tide charts can be obtained from the regional government authorities. This concept is demonstrated by the particle drop times taken at high and low tides. The result of the experiment shows that the particle settlement time is less in low tide and high in high tide. The experiment for dust particles in air can be collected on filters, which are cellulose ester membranes and using a vacuum pump. The dust on filters can be used to make slides according to the NOHSC method. Counting the dust particles on the slides can be done using a phase contrast microscope. The results show that the concentration of dust is high at high tide and low in low tide. As a result of the high tides, a high concentration of heavy minerals deposit on placer deposits and dust particles retain in the atmosphere for longer in low gravity regions. These conditions are remarkably exhibited in the lowest low gravity region of the earth, mainly in the regions of India, Sri Lanka and in the middle part of the Indian Ocean. The biggest heavy mineral placer deposits are found in coastal regions of India and Sri Lanka and heavy dust particles are found in the atmosphere of India, particularly in the Delhi region.

Keywords: Dust particles, high and low tides, heavy minerals. low gravity.

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Authors: P. Bogas

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As a scientific contribution to this discussion, a pedagogical intervention of a quasi-experimental nature was developed, with a mixed methodology, evaluating the intervention within a single curricular unit of Marketing, using cases based on real challenges of brands, business simulation and customer projects. Primary and secondary experiences were incorporated in the intervention: the primary experiences are the experiential activities themselves; the secondary experiences resulted from the primary experience, such as reflection and discussion in work teams. A diversified learning relationship was encouraged through the various connections between the different members of the learning community. The present study concludes that in the same context, the students' response can be described as: students who reinforce the initial deep approach, students who maintain the initial deep approach level and others who change from an emphasis on the deep approach to one closer to superficial. This typology did not always confirm studies reported in the literature, namely, whether the initial level of deep processing would influence the superficial and the opposite. The result of this investigation points to the inclusion of pedagogical and didactic activities that integrate different motivations and initial strategies, leading to a possible adoption of deep approaches to learning, since it revealed statistically significant differences in the difference in the scores of the deep/superficial approach and the experiential level. In the case of real challenges, the categories of “attribution of meaning and meaning of studied” and the possibility of “contact with an aspirational context” for their future professional stand out. In this category, the dimensions of autonomy that will be required of them were also revealed when comparing the classroom context of real cases and the future professional context and the impact they may have on the world. Regarding to the simulated practice, two categories of response stand out: on the one hand, the motivation associated with the possibility of measuring the results of the decisions taken, an awareness of oneself and, on the other hand, the additional effort that this practice required for some of the students.

Keywords: Experiential learning, higher education, marketing, mixed methods, reflective thinking.

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Authors: Ali Essam El Shazly

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The Haussmannization plan of Cairo in 1867 formed a regular network of roundabout spaces, though deteriorated at present. The method of identifying the spatial structure of roundabout Cairo for conservation matches the voronoi diagram with the space syntax through their geometrical property of spatial convexity. In this initiative, the primary convex hull of first-order voronoi adopts the integral and control measurements of space syntax on Cairo’s roundabout generators. The functional essence of royal palaces optimizes the roundabout structure in terms of spatial measurements and the symbolic voronoi projection of 'Tahrir Roundabout' over the Giza Nile and Pyramids. Some roundabouts of major public and commercial landmarks surround the pole of 'Ezbekia Garden' with a higher control than integral measurements, which filter the new spatial structure from the adjacent traditional town. Nevertheless, the least integral and control measures correspond to the voronoi contents of pollutant workshops and the plateau of old Cairo Citadel with the visual compensation of new royal landmarks on top. Meanwhile, the extended suburbs of infinite voronoi polygons arrange high control generators of chateaux housing in 'garden city' environs. The point pattern of roundabouts determines the geometrical characteristics of voronoi polygons. The measured lengths of voronoi edges alternate between the zoned short range at the new poles of Cairo and the distributed structure of longer range. Nevertheless, the shortest range of generator-vertex geometry concentrates at 'Ezbekia Garden' where the crossways of vast Cairo intersect, which maximizes the variety of choice at different spatial resolutions. However, the symbolic 'Hippodrome' which is the largest public landmark forms exclusive geometrical measurements, while structuring a most integrative roundabout to parallel the royal syntax. Overview of the symbolic convex hull of voronoi with space syntax interconnects Parisian Cairo with the spatial chronology of scattered monuments to conceive one universal Cairo structure. Accordingly, the approached methodology of 'voronoi-syntax' prospects the future conservation of roundabout Cairo at the inferred city-level concept.

Keywords: Roundabout Cairo, first-order Voronoi, space syntax, spatial structure.

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Authors: Panagiotis Platanitis

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Purpose: This research paper seeks to review the empirical studies in the field of expatriate adjustment in East Asia in order to produce a thematic understanding of the current adjustment challenges, thus enabling practitioners to enrich their knowledge. Background: Learning to live, work, and function in a country and culture vastly different from that of one’s upbringing can pose some unique challenges in terms of adaptation and adjustment. This has led to a growing body of research about the adjustment of expatriate workers. Adjustment itself has been posited as a three-dimensional construct; work adjustment, interaction adjustment and general or cultural adjustment. Methodology: This qualitative systematic review has been conducted on all identified peer-reviewed empirical studies related to expatriate adjustment in East Asia. Five electronic databases (PsychInfo, Emerald, Scopus, EBSCO and JSTOR) were searched to December 2015. Out of 625 identified records, thorough evaluation for eligibility resulted in 15 relevant studies being subjected to data analysis. The quality of the identified research was assessed according to the Standard Quality Assessment Criteria for Evaluating Primary Research Papers from a Variety of Fields. The data were analysed by means of thematic synthesis for systematic reviews of qualitative research. Findings: Data analysis revealed five key themes. The themes developed were: (1) personality traits (2) types of adjustment, (3) language, (4) culture and (5) coping strategies. Types of adjustment included subthemes such as: Interaction, general, work, psychological, sociocultural and cross-cultural adjustment. Conclusion: The present review supported previous literature on the different themes of adjustment and it takes the focus from work and general adjustment to the psychological challenges and it introduces the psychological adjustment. It also gives a different perspective about the use of cross-cultural training and the coping strategies expatriates use when they are abroad. This review helps counselling psychologists to understand the importance of a multicultural approach when working with expatriates and also to be aware of what expatriates might face when working and living in East Asia.

Keywords: Expatriates, adjustment, East Asia, counselling psychology.

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Authors: Krzysztof J. Czarnocki, E. Czarnocka, K. Szaniawska

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Main goal of the research project is Scaffold Use Risk Assessment Model (SURAM) formulation, developed for the assessment of risk levels as a various construction process stages with various work trades. Finally, in 2016, the project received financing by the National Center for Research and development according to PBS3/A2/19/2015–Research Grant. The presented data, calculations and analyzes discussed in this paper were created as a result of the completion on the first and second phase of the PBS3/A2/19/2015 project. Method: One of the arms of the research project is the assessment of worker visual concentration on the sight zones as well as risky visual point inadequate observation. In this part of research, the mobile eye-tracker was used to monitor the worker observation zones. SMI Eye Tracking Glasses is a tool, which allows us to analyze in real time and place where our eyesight is concentrated on and consequently build the map of worker's eyesight concentration during a shift. While the project is still running, currently 64 construction sites have been examined, and more than 600 workers took part in the experiment including monitoring of typical parameters of the work regimen, workload, microclimate, sound vibration, etc. Full equipment can also be useful in more advanced analyses. Because of that technology we have verified not only main focus of workers eyes during work on or next to scaffolding, but we have also examined which changes in the surrounding environment during their shift influenced their concentration. In the result of this study it has been proven that only up to 45.75% of the shift time, workers’ eye concentration was on one of three work-related areas. Workers seem to be distracted by noisy vehicles or people nearby. In opposite to our initial assumptions and other authors’ findings, we observed that the reflective parts of the scaffoldings were not more recognized by workers in their direct workplaces. We have noticed that the red curbs were the only well recognized part on a very few scaffoldings. Surprisingly on numbers of samples, we have not recognized any significant number of concentrations on those curbs. Conclusion: We have found the eye-tracking method useful for the construction of the SURAM model in the risk perception and worker’s behavior sub-modules. We also have found that the initial worker's stress and work visual conditions seem to be more predictive for assessment of the risky developing situation or an accident than other parameters relating to a work environment.

Keywords: Accident assessment model, eye tracking, occupational safety, scaffolding.

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Authors: Tomoko Fukuyama, Osamu Senbu

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Prestressed concrete is used a lot in infrastructures such as roads or bridges. However, poor grout filling and PC steel corrosion are currently major issues of prestressed concrete structures. One of the problems with nondestructive corrosion detection of PC steel is a plastic pipe which covers PC steel. The insulative property of pipe makes a nondestructive diagnosis difficult; therefore a practical technology to detect these defects is necessary for the maintenance of infrastructures. The goal of the research is a development of an electrochemical technique which enables to detect internal defects from the surface of prestressed concrete nondestructively. Ideally, the measurements should be conducted from the surface of structural members to diagnose non-destructively. In the present experiment, a prestressed concrete member is simplified as a layered specimen to simulate a current path between an input and an output electrode on a member surface. The specimens which are layered by mortar and the prestressed concrete constitution materials (steel, polyethylene, stainless steel, or galvanized steel plates) were provided to the alternating current impedance measurement. The magnitude of an applied electric field was 0.01-volt or 1-volt, and the frequency range was from 106 Hz to 10-2 Hz. The frequency spectrums of impedance, which relate to charge reactions activated by an electric field, were measured to clarify the effects of the material configurations or the properties. In the civil engineering field, the Nyquist diagram is popular to analyze impedance and it is a good way to grasp electric relaxation using a shape of the plot. However, it is slightly not suitable to figure out an influence of a measurement frequency which is reciprocal of reaction time. Hence, Bode diagram is also applied to describe charge reactions in the present paper. From the experiment results, the alternating current impedance method looks to be applicable to the insulative material measurement and eventually prestressed concrete diagnosis. At the same time, the frequency spectrums of impedance show the difference of the material configuration. This is because the charge mobility reflects the variety of substances and also the measuring frequency of the electric field determines migration length of charges which are under the influence of the electric field. However, it could not distinguish the differences of the material thickness and is inferred the difficulties of prestressed concrete diagnosis to identify the amount of an air void or a layer of corrosion product by the technique.

Keywords: Prestressed concrete, electric charge, impedance, phase shift.

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Authors: E. L. Suarez, D. E. Meeroff, Y. Yong

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Current flooding risk modeling focuses on resilience, defined as the probability of recovery from a severe flooding event. However, the long-term damage to property and well-being by nuisance flooding and its long-term effects on communities are not typically included in risk assessments. An approach was developed to address the probability of recovering from a severe flooding event combined with the probability of community performance during a nuisance event. A consolidated model, namely the conflation flooding recovery (&FR) model, evaluates risk-coping mitigation strategies for communities based on the recovery time from catastrophic events, such as hurricanes or extreme surges, and from everyday nuisance flooding events. The &FR model assesses the variation contribution of each independent input and generates a weighted output that favors the distribution with minimum variation. This approach is especially useful if the input distributions have dissimilar variances. The &FR is defined as a single distribution resulting from the product of the individual probability density functions. The resulting conflated distribution resides between the parent distributions, and it infers the recovery time required by a community to return to basic functions, such as power, utilities, transportation, and civil order, after a flooding event. The &FR model is more accurate than averaging individual observations before calculating the mean and variance or averaging the probabilities evaluated at the input values, which assigns the same weighted variation to each input distribution. The main disadvantage of these traditional methods is that the resulting measure of central tendency is exactly equal to the average of the input distribution’s means without the additional information provided by each individual distribution variance. When dealing with exponential distributions, such as resilience from severe flooding events and from nuisance flooding events, conflation results are equivalent to the weighted least squares method or best linear unbiased estimation. The combination of severe flooding risk with nuisance flooding improves flood risk management for highly populated coastal communities, such as in South Florida, USA, and provides a method to estimate community flood recovery time more accurately from two different sources, severe flooding events and nuisance flooding events.

Keywords: Community resilience, conflation, flood risk, nuisance flooding.

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Authors: Lily Ingsrisawang, Supawadee Ingsriswang, Saisuda Somchit, Prasert Aungsuratana, Warawut Khantiyanan

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This paper presents the methodology from machine learning approaches for short-term rain forecasting system. Decision Tree, Artificial Neural Network (ANN), and Support Vector Machine (SVM) were applied to develop classification and prediction models for rainfall forecasts. The goals of this presentation are to demonstrate (1) how feature selection can be used to identify the relationships between rainfall occurrences and other weather conditions and (2) what models can be developed and deployed for predicting the accurate rainfall estimates to support the decisions to launch the cloud seeding operations in the northeastern part of Thailand. Datasets collected during 2004-2006 from the Chalermprakiat Royal Rain Making Research Center at Hua Hin, Prachuap Khiri khan, the Chalermprakiat Royal Rain Making Research Center at Pimai, Nakhon Ratchasima and Thai Meteorological Department (TMD). A total of 179 records with 57 features was merged and matched by unique date. There are three main parts in this work. Firstly, a decision tree induction algorithm (C4.5) was used to classify the rain status into either rain or no-rain. The overall accuracy of classification tree achieves 94.41% with the five-fold cross validation. The C4.5 algorithm was also used to classify the rain amount into three classes as no-rain (0-0.1 mm.), few-rain (0.1- 10 mm.), and moderate-rain (>10 mm.) and the overall accuracy of classification tree achieves 62.57%. Secondly, an ANN was applied to predict the rainfall amount and the root mean square error (RMSE) were used to measure the training and testing errors of the ANN. It is found that the ANN yields a lower RMSE at 0.171 for daily rainfall estimates, when compared to next-day and next-2-day estimation. Thirdly, the ANN and SVM techniques were also used to classify the rain amount into three classes as no-rain, few-rain, and moderate-rain as above. The results achieved in 68.15% and 69.10% of overall accuracy of same-day prediction for the ANN and SVM models, respectively. The obtained results illustrated the comparison of the predictive power of different methods for rainfall estimation.

Keywords: Machine learning, decision tree, artificial neural network, support vector machine, root mean square error.

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