Search results for: emerging risks

Authors: Akram Khaleghei Ghosheh Balagh, Viliam Makis, Leila Jafari

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In this paper, we present a new maintenance model for a partially observable system subject to two failure modes, namely a catastrophic failure and a failure due to the system degradation. The system is subject to condition monitoring and the degradation process is described by a hidden Markov model. A cost-optimal Bayesian control policy is developed for maintaining the system. The control problem is formulated in the semi-Markov decision process framework. An effective computational algorithm is developed, illustrated by a numerical example.

Keywords: Partially observable system, hidden Markov model, competing risks, multivariate Bayesian control.

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Authors: Jan Stodt, Christoph Reich

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The usage of machine learning models for prediction is growing rapidly and proof that the intended requirements are met is essential. Audits are a proven method to determine whether requirements or guidelines are met. However, machine learning models have intrinsic characteristics, such as the quality of training data, that make it difficult to demonstrate the required behavior and make audits more challenging. This paper describes an ML audit framework that evaluates and reviews the risks of machine learning applications, the quality of the training data, and the machine learning model. We evaluate and demonstrate the functionality of the proposed framework by auditing an steel plate fault prediction model.

Keywords: Audit, machine learning, assessment, metrics.

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Authors: Suboohi Shervani, Jingjing Ling, Jiabin Liu, Tahir Husain

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Offshore oil-spill has become the most emerging problem in the world. In the current paper, a graphene/ZnO/polymer nanocomposite thin film is coated on stainless steel mesh via layer by layer deposition method. The structural characterization of materials is determined by Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM) and X-ray diffraction (XRD). The total petroleum hydrocarbons (TPHs) and separation efficiency have been measured via gas chromatography – flame ionization detector (GC-FID). TPHs are reduced to 2 ppm and separation efficiency of the nanocomposite coated mesh is reached ≥ 99% for the final sample. The nanocomposite coated mesh acts as a promising candidate for the separation of oil- water mixture.

Keywords: Oil-spill, graphene, oil-water separation, nanocomposite.

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Authors: I. Kulyk, M. Stefan

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Atmospheric plasma is emerging as a promising technology for many industrial sectors, because of its ecological and economic advantages respect to the traditional production processes. For textile industry, atmospheric plasma is becoming a valid alternative to the conventional wet processes, but the plasma machines realized so far do not allow the treatment of fibrous mechanically weak material. Novel atmospheric plasma machine for industrial applications, developed by VenetoNanotech SCpA in collaboration with Italian producer of corona equipment ME.RO SpA is presented. The main feature of this pre-industrial scale machine is the possibility of the inline plasma treatment of delicate fibrous substrates such as fibre sleeves, for example wool tops, cotton fibres, polymeric tows, mineral fibers and so on, avoiding burnings and disruption of the faint materials.

Keywords: Atmospheric plasma, industrial machine, fibrous materials.

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Authors: Muhammad R Ahmed, Xu Huang, Dharmandra Sharma, Hongyan Cui

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An information procuring and processing emerging technology wireless sensor network (WSN) Consists of autonomous nodes with versatile devices underpinned by applications. Nodes are equipped with different capabilities such as sensing, computing, actuation and wireless communications etc. based on application requirements. A WSN application ranges from military implementation in the battlefield, environmental monitoring, health sector as well as emergency response of surveillance. The nodes are deployed independently to cooperatively monitor the physical and environmental conditions. The architecture of WSN differs based on the application requirements and focus on low cost, flexibility, fault tolerance capability, deployment process as well as conserve energy. In this paper we have present the characteristics, architecture design objective and architecture of WSN

Keywords: wireless sensor network, characteristics, architecture

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Authors: Bita Mashayekhi, Hamid Kalhornia

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One of the most important roles of financial reporting is improving the firms’ investment decisions; however, there is not much supporting evidence for this claim in emerging markets like Iran. In this study, the effect of financial reporting transparency in investment efficiency of Iranian firms has been investigated. In order to do this, 336 listed companies on Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) has been selected for time period 2012 to 2015 as research sample. For testing our main hypothesis, we classified sample firms into two groups based on their deviation from expected investment: under-investment and over-investment cases. The results indicate that there is positive significant relationship between financial transparency and investment efficiency. In the other words, transparency can mitigate both underinvestment and overinvestment situations.

Keywords: Corporate governance, disclosure, investment decisions, investment efficiency, transparency.

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Authors: Preeda Sansakorn, Min An

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In order to be capable of dealing with uncertainties, subjectivities, including vagueness arising in building construction projects, the application of fuzzy reasoning technique based on fuzzy set theory is proposed. This study contributes significantly to the development of a fuzzy reasoning safety risk assessment model for building construction projects that could be employed to assess the risk magnitude of each hazardous event identified during construction, and a third parameter of probability of consequence is incorporated in the model. By using the proposed safety risk analysis methodology, more reliable and less ambiguities, which provide the safety risk management project team for decision-making purposes.

Keywords: Safety risks assessment, building construction safety, fuzzy reasoning, construction risk assessment model, building construction projects.

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Authors: Ana Bobirca, Paul-Gabriel Miclaus

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The purpose of the article is to illustrate the main characteristics of the corporate governance challenge facing the countries of South-Eastern Europe (SEE) and to subsequently determine and assess the extensiveness and effectiveness of corporate governance regulations in these countries. Therefore, we start with an overview on the subject of the key problems of corporate governance in transition. We then address the issue of corporate governance measurement for SEE countries. To this end, we include a review of the methodological framework for determining both the extensiveness and the effectiveness of corporate governance legislation. We then focus on the actual analysis of the quality of corporate governance codes, as well as of legal institutions effectiveness and provide a measure of corporate governance in Romania and other SEE emerging markets. The paper concludes by emphasizing the corporate governance enforcement gap and by identifying research issues that require further study.

Keywords: corporate governance, effectiveness, extensiveness, South-Eastern Europe

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Authors: Josef Brychta, Jiri Kratochvil, Marek Pagac

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The group of progressive cutting materials can include non-traditional, emerging and less-used materials that can be an efficient use of cutting their lead to a quantum leap in the field of machining. This is essentially a “superhard” materials (STM) based on polycrystalline diamond (PCD) and polycrystalline cubic boron nitride (PCBN) cutting performance ceramics and development is constantly "perfecting" fine coated cemented carbides. The latter cutting materials are broken down by two parameters, toughness and hardness. A variation of alloying elements is always possible to improve only one of each parameter. Reducing the size of the core on the other hand doing achieves "contradictory" properties, namely to increase both hardness and toughness.

Keywords: Grained cutting materials difficult to machine materials, optimum utilization.

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Authors: Irina Pyrlina

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Author presents the results of a study conducted to identify criteria of efficient information system (IS) with serviceoriented architecture (SOA) realization and proposes a ranking method to evaluate SOA information systems using a set of architecture quality criteria before the systems are implemented. The method is used to compare 7 SOA projects and ranking result for SOA efficiency of the projects is provided. The choice of SOA realization project depends on following criteria categories: IS internal work and organization, SOA policies, guidelines and change management, processes and business services readiness, risk management and mitigation. The last criteria category was analyzed on the basis of projects statistics.

Keywords: multiple criteria threshold algorithm, serviceoriented architecture, SOA operational risks, efficiency criteria for IS architecture, projects ranking.

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Authors: Maziar Ramezani, Thomas Neitzert

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A dent is a gross distortion of the pipe cross-section. Dent depth is defined as the maximum reduction in the diameter of the pipe compared to the original diameter. Pipeline dent finite element (FE) simulation and theoretical analysis are conducted in this paper to develop an understanding of the geometric characteristics and strain distribution in the pressurized dented pipe. Based on the results, the magnitude of the denting force increases significantly with increasing the internal pressure, and the maximum circumferential and longitudinal strains increase by increasing the internal pressure and the dent depth. The results can be used for characterizing dents and ranking their risks to the integrity of a pipeline.

Keywords: dented steel pipelines, Finite element model, Internal pressure, Strain distribution

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Authors: Susmita Ghosh, Bhaskar Bhowmick

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Market is an important factor for start-ups to look into during decision-making in product development and related areas. Emerging country markets are more uncertain in terms of information availability and institutional supports. The literature review of market uncertainty reveals the need for identifying factors representing the market uncertainty. This paper identifies factors for market uncertainty using Exploratory Factor Analysis (EFA) and confirmed the number of factor retention using an alternative factor retention criterion ‘Parallel Analysis’. 500 entrepreneurs, engaged in start-ups from all over India participated in the study. This paper concludes with the factor structure of ‘market uncertainty’ having dimensions of uncertainty in industry orientation, uncertainty in customer orientation and uncertainty in marketing orientation.

Keywords: Uncertainty, market, orientation, competitor, demand.

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Authors: Oladotun A. Fatoki, Deborah A. Onifade

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Spoilage occurs in plant produce due to the action of field and storage microorganisms. The conditions of storage can also cause physiological spoilage. Various methods exist to ensure that these food substances maintain their quality long after harvesting. However, many of these methods either fail to keep the plant for the required period or predispose the plant to other spoilage risks. The major shortcoming posed by the use of many antimicrobials is the chemical residues it deposits in the food substance. The use of plants in preservation has been in use for a long period, though little understood then, it served its purposes. A better understanding of the roles of these plant parts in increasing the shelf life of farm produce has helped in the creation of more effective and safer means of pest and microbial control. This can be extended to plants that have not been used for these purposes initially. Microbial sources should also be investigated as these have provided cheaper sources of secondary metabolites.

Keywords: Antimicrobials, Food preservation, Phytochemicals

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Authors: Christos E. Alexakos, Konstantinos C. Giotopoulos, Eleni J. Thermogianni, Grigorios N. Beligiannis, Spiridon D. Likothanassis

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In this contribution an innovative platform is being presented that integrates intelligent agents in legacy e-learning environments. It introduces the design and development of a scalable and interoperable integration platform supporting various assessment agents for e-learning environments. The agents are implemented in order to provide intelligent assessment services to computational intelligent techniques such as Bayesian Networks and Genetic Algorithms. The utilization of new and emerging technologies like web services allows integrating the provided services to any web based legacy e-learning environment.

Keywords: Bayesian Networks, Computational Intelligence techniques, E-learning legacy systems, Service Oriented Integration, Intelligent Agents

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Authors: Yanmin Zhao, Siu Ming Yiu

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To claim the ownership for an executable program is a non-trivial task. An emerging direction is to add a watermark to the program such that the watermarked program preserves the original program’s functionality and removing the watermark would heavily destroy the functionality of the watermarked program. In this paper, the first watermarking signature scheme with the watermark and the constraint function hidden in the symmetric key setting is constructed. The scheme uses well-known techniques of lattice trapdoors and a lattice evaluation. The watermarking signature scheme is unforgeable under the Short Integer Solution (SIS) assumption and satisfies other security requirements such as the unremovability security property.

Keywords: Short integer solution problem, signatures, the symmetric-key setting, watermarking schemes.

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Authors: R. Kongnuy, E. Naowanich

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In this paper we develop and analyze the model for the spread of Leptospirosis by age group in Thailand, between 1997 and 2010 by using mathematical modeling and computer simulation. Leptospirosis is caused by pathogenic spirochetes of the genus Leptospira. It is a zoonotic disease of global importance and an emerging health problem in Thailand. In Thailand, leptospirosis is a reportable disease, the top three age groups are 23.31% in 35-44 years olds group, 22.76% in 25-34 year olds group, 17.60% in 45-54 year olds group from reported leptospirosis between 1997 and 2010, with a peak in 35-44 year olds group. Our paper, the Leptosipirosis transmission by age group in Thailand is studied on the mathematical model. Some analytical and simulation results are presented.

Keywords: Age Group, Equilibrium State, Leptospirosis, Mathematical Modeling.

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Authors: Oulad Naoui Noureddine, Cherif ELAmine, Djehiche Abdelkader

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Water resources management includes several disciplines; the modeling of rainfall-runoff relationship is the most important discipline to prevent natural risks. There are several models to study rainfall-runoff relationship in watersheds. However, the majority of these models are not applicable in all basins of the world.  In this study, a new stochastic method called The Only Corresponding Competitor method (OCC) was used for the hydrological modeling of M’ZAB   Watershed (South East of Algeria) to adapt a few empirical models for any hydrological regime.  The results obtained allow to authorize a certain number of visions, in which it would be interesting to experiment with hydrological models that improve collectively or separately the data of a catchment by the OCC method.

Keywords: Empirical model, modeling, OCC, rainfall-runoff relationship.

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Authors: A. Peter Amala Sujith, T.V. Hymavathi, P. Yasoda Devi

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Lutein is a dietary oxycarotenoid which is found to reduce the risks of Age-related Macular Degeneration (AMD). Supercritical fluid extraction of lutein esters from marigold petals was carried out and was found to be much effective than conventional solvent extraction. The saponification of pre-concentrated lutein esters to produce free lutein was studied which showed a composition of about 88% total carotenoids (UV-VIS spectrophotometry) and 90.7% lutein (HPLC). The lipase catalyzed hydrolysis of lutein esters in conventional medium was investigated. The optimal temperature, pH, enzyme concentration and water activity were found to be 50°C, 7, 15% and 0.33 respectively and the activity loss of lipase was about 25% after 8 times re-use in at 50°C for 12 days. However, the lipase catalyzed hydrolysis of lutein esters in conventional media resulted in poor conversions (16.4%).

Keywords: lutein, preconcentration, saponification, lipase

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Authors: Enkelejda Koka, Denard Veshi

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Since 2011, in the name of ‘humanitarianism’ and deaths in the Mediterranean Sea, the legal and political justification delivered by Greece to manage the refugee crisis is pre-emptive interception. Although part of the EU, Greece adopted its own strategy. These practices have also created high risks for migrants generally resulting in non-rescue episodes and push-back practices having lethal consequences to the life of the irregular migrant. Thus, this article provides an analysis of the Greek ‘compassionate border work’ policy, a practice known as push-back. It is argued that these push-back practices violate international obligations, notably the ‘right to life’, the ‘duty to search and rescue’, the prohibition of inhuman or degrading treatment or punishment and the principle of non-refoulement.

Keywords: Greece, migrants, push-back policy, violation of international law.

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Authors: Niklas Echterhoff, Benjamin Amshoff, Jürgen Gausemeier

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Due to today-s fierce competition, companies have to be proactive creators of the future by effectively developing innovations. Especially radical innovations allow high profit margins – but they also entail high risks. One possibility to realize radical innovations and reduce the risk of failure is cross-industry innovation (CII). CII brings together problems and solution ideas from different industries. However, there is a lack of systematic ways towards CII. Bridging this gap, the present paper provides a systematic approach towards planned CII. Starting with the analysis of potentials, the definition of promising search strategies is crucial. Subsequently, identified solution ideas need to be assessed. For the most promising ones, the adaption process has to be systematically planned – regarding the risk affinity of a company. The introduced method is explained on a project from the furniture industry.

Keywords: Analogy building, cross-industry innovations, knowledge transfer, solution adaption.

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Authors: Helen P. Greatrex

Abstract:

Many states are now committed to implementing international human rights standards domestically. In terms of practical governance, how might effectiveness be measured? A facevalue answer can be found in domestic laws and institutions relating to human rights. However, this article provides two further tools to help states assess their status on the spectrum of robust to fragile human rights governance. The first recognises that each state has its own 'human rights history' and the ideal end stage is robust human rights governance, and the second is developing criteria to assess robustness. Although a New Zealand case study is used to illustrate these tools, the widespread adoption of human rights standards by many states inevitably means that the issues are relevant to other countries. This is even though there will always be varying degrees of similarity-difference in constitutional background and developed or emerging human rights systems.

Keywords: robust human rights governance, fragile states.

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Authors: Z. H. Shi, T. J. Dou, H. Zhang, H. X. Huang, N. Zeng

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The contamination of significant quantities of soils and sediments with uranium and other actinide elements as a result of nuclear activity poses many environmental risks. The electrokinetic process is one of the most promising remediation techniques for sludge, sediment, and saturated or unsaturated soils contaminated with heavy metals and radionuclides. However, secondary waste is a major concern for soil contaminated with nuclides. To minimize the generation of secondary wastes, this study used the anion and cation exchange membranes to improve the performance of the experimental apparatus. Remediation experiments of uranium-contaminated soil were performed with different agents. The results show that using acetic acid and EDTA as chelating agents clearly enhances the migration ability of the uranium. The ion exchange membranes (IEMs) used in the experiments not only reduce secondary wastes, but also, keep the soil pH stable.

Keywords: Electrokinetic remediation, ion exchange membranes, soil, uranium.

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Authors: E. Cenderelli, E. Bruno, G. Iacoviello, A. Lazzini

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The financial sector is exposed to the risk of cyber-attacks like any other industrial sector. Furthermore, the topic of CybeRisk (cyber risk) has become particularly relevant given that Information Technology (IT) attacks have increased drastically in recent years, and cannot be stopped by single organizations requiring a response at international and national level. IT risk is never a matter purely for the IT manager, although he clearly plays a key role. A bank's risk management function requires a thorough understanding of the evolving risks as well as the tools and practical techniques available to address them. Upon the request of European and national legislation regarding CybeRisk in the financial system, banks are therefore called upon to strengthen the operational model for CybeRisk management. This will require an important change with a more intense collaboration with the structures that deal with information security for the development of an ad hoc system for the evaluation and control of this type of risk. The aim of the work is to propose a framework for the management and control of CybeRisk that will bridge the gap in the literature regarding the understanding and consideration of CybeRisk as an integral part of business management. The IT function has a strong relevance in the management of CybeRisk, which is perceived mainly as operational risk, but with a positive tendency on the part of risk management to the identification of CybeRisk assessment methods that are increasingly complete, quantitative and able to better describe the possible impacts on the business. The paper provides answers to the research questions: Is it possible to define a CybeRisk governance structure able to support the comparison between risk and security? How can the relationships between IT assets be integrated into a cyberisk assessment framework to guarantee a system of protection and risks control? From a methodological point of view, this research uses a case study approach. The choice of “Monte dei Paschi di Siena” was determined by the specific features of one of Italy’s biggest lenders. It is chosen to use an intensive research strategy: an in-depth study of reality. The case study methodology is an empirical approach to explore a complex and current phenomenon that develops over time. The use of cases has also the advantage of allowing the deepening of aspects concerning the "how" and "why" of contemporary events, on which the scholar has little control. The research bases on quantitative data and qualitative information obtained through semi-structured interviews of an open-ended nature and questionnaires to directors, members of the audit committee, risk, IT and compliance managers, and those responsible for internal audit function and anti-money laundering. The added value of the paper can be seen in the development of a framework based on a mapping of IT assets from which it is possible to identify their relationships for purposes of a more effective management and control of cyber risk.

Keywords: Bank, CybeRisk, information technology, risk management.

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Authors: N. Boutra, N. Ravot, J. Benoit, O. Picon

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Submarine power cables used for offshore wind farms electric energy distribution and transmission are subject to numerous threats. Some of the risks are associated with transport, installation and operating in harsh marine environment. This paper describes the feasibility of an electromagnetic low frequency sensing technique for submarine power cable failure prediction. The impact of a structural damage shape and material variability on the induced electric field is evaluated. The analysis is performed by modeling the cable using the finite element method, we use sensitivity analysis in order to identify the main damage characteristics affecting electric field variation. Lastly, we discuss the results obtained.

Keywords: Electromagnetism, defect, finite element method, sensitivity analysis, submarine power cables.

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Authors: Daniel Siahaan, Aditya Prapanca

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The emerging Semantic Web has been attracted many researchers and developers. New applications have been developed on top of Semantic Web and many supporting tools introduced to improve its software development process. Metadata modeling is one of development process where supporting tools exists. The existing tools are lack of readability and easiness for a domain knowledge expert to graphically models a problem in semantic model. In this paper, a metadata modeling tool called RDFGraph is proposed. This tool is meant to solve those problems. RDFGraph is also designed to work with modern database management systems that support RDF and to improve the performance of the query execution process. The testing result shows that the rules used in RDFGraph follows the W3C standard and the graphical model produced in this tool is properly translated and correct.

Keywords: CASE tool, data modeling, semantic web

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Authors: Cătălin Nicolae Albu, Nadia Albu, Maria Mădălina Gîrbină

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There is limited evidence from various countries about the possible impact of various criteria to be used to determine the scope of the IFRS for SMEs issued in 2009 and, research is needed in this area. We provide evidence from Romania, an emerging economy member of the European Union. The aim of this paper is to analyze in a local setting if size is a relevant factor for deciding between local and global standards for SMEs. Our results indicate that size is a moderate indicator of the existence of possible users interested in financial statements and that there is a difference between the scopes of the standard determined on various criteria.. Also, we suggest that the international exposure is quite reduced in the case of SMEs, but is sufficient to suggest that at least some SMEs would benefit from international comparability of financial statements

Keywords: SMEs, IFRS for SMEs, accounting regulation, entity's size.

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Authors: Linda Sau-ling LAI

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This paper aims to address the new trend of social commerce as electronic commerce leverages Web 2.0 technologies and online social media. The infusions of new technologies on the World Wide Web connect users in their homes and workplaces, thus transforming social formations and business transactions. An in-depth study of the growth and success of a social commerce site, Facebook was conducted. The investigation is finalized with a triad relational model which reflects socioeconomic life in the Internet today. The following three concepts work jointly to form a global community that has already started to take the place of traditional commerce and socialization: Web 2.0 technology, E-commerce, and online social media. A discussion of the research findings indicates that social commerce networks are sustainable because of the various incentives given to users as they collaborate with others regardless of their identity and location. The focus of this article is to increase understanding on quickly developing Web 2.0 based social media and their subsequent effects on the emerging social commerce.

Keywords: Social Commerce, Web 2.0, ElectronicCommerce, Social Media

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Authors: Zh.Mingaleva, K.Balkova

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Innovations and innovative activity get the increasing value for successful financial and economic activity of the countries and regions. The level of innovative sphere development determines place of a country or a region in world economy and forms a basis of steady economic growth. This article is devoted to different aspects of organization of the national economic safety in the conditions of innovative development, its problems, risks and threats. Economy can be considered as aspiring for transition to innovative way only with finding of economic safety: financial independence, power stability and technological progress. There are statistical indicators, defining the level of economic security and factors, threatening economic safety of the state. The research is based on the analysis of factors and indicators in conditions of innovative development. The paper is illustrated by the examples of possible estimated system of the economic safety level.

Keywords: Economic safety, innovative activity, innovative development, innovative economy

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Authors: Ahmed Shuhaiber, Hans Lehmann

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Mobile payments have been deployed by businesses for more than a decade. Customers use mobile payments if they trust in this relatively new payment method, have a belief and confidence in, as well as reliance on its services and applications. Despite its potential, the current literature shows that there is lack of customer trust in B2C mobile payments, and a lack of studies that determine the factors that influence their trust in these payments; which make these factors yet to be understood, especially in the Middle East region. Thus, this study aims to explore the factors that influence customer trust in mobile payments. The empirical data for this explorative study was collected by establishing four focus group sessions in the UAE. The results indicate that the explored significant factors can be classified into five main groups: customer characteristics, environmental (social and cultural) influences, provider characteristics, mobile-device characteristics, and perceived risks.

Keywords: B2C mobile payments, Mobile commerce, Mobile payment services and application, Trust in mobile payments.

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Authors: Chunling Cong, Chris.P.Tsokos

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The objective of the present research manuscript is to perform parametric, nonparametric, and decision tree analysis to evaluate two treatments that are being used for breast cancer patients. Our study is based on utilizing real data which was initially used in “Tamoxifen with or without breast irradiation in women of 50 years of age or older with early breast cancer" [1], and the data is supplied to us by N.A. Ibrahim “Decision tree for competing risks survival probability in breast cancer study" [2]. We agree upon certain aspects of our findings with the published results. However, in this manuscript, we focus on relapse time of breast cancer patients instead of survival time and parametric analysis instead of semi-parametric decision tree analysis is applied to provide more precise recommendations of effectiveness of the two treatments with respect to reoccurrence of breast cancer.

Keywords: decision tree, breast cancer treatments, parametricanalysis, non-parametric analysis

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