Search results for: decision uncertainty distance (DUD)

Authors: D. N. Kambrekar, S. B. Jagginavar, J. Aruna

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Grape stem borer, Celosterna scrabrator is an important production constraint in grapes in India. Hitherto this pest was a severe menace only on the aged and unmanaged fields but during the recent past it has also started damaging the newly established fields. In India, since Karnataka, Andra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and Maharashtra are the major grape production states, the incidence of stem borer is also restricted and severe in these states. The grubs of the beetle bore in to the main stem and even the branches, which affect the translocation of nutrients to the areal parts of the plant. Since, the grubs bore inside the stem, the chewed material along with its excreta is discharged outside the holes and the frass is found on the ground just below the bored holes. The portion of vines above the damaged part has a sticky appearance. The leaves become pale yellow which looks like a deficiency of micronutrients. The leaves ultimately dry and drop down. The status of the incidence of the grape stem borer in different grape growing districts of Northern Karnataka was carried out during three years. In each taluka five locations were surveyed for the incidence of grape stem borer. Further, the experiment on management of stem borer was carried out in the grape gardens of Vijayapur districts under farmers field during three years. Stem borer infested plants that show live holes were selected per treatments and it was replicated three times. Live and dead holes observed during pre-treatment were closely monitored and only plants with live holes were selected and tagged. Different doses of chlorantraniliprole 0.4% GR were incorporated into the soil around the vine basins near root zone surrounded to trunk region by removing soils up to 5-10 cm with a peripheral distance of 1 to 1.5 feet from the main trunk where feeder roots are present. Irrigation was followed after application of insecticide for proper incorporation of the test chemical. The results indicated that there was sever to moderate incidence of the stem borer in all the grape growing districts of northern Karnataka. Maximum incidence was recorded in Belagavi (11 holes per vine) and minimum was in Gadag district (8.5 holes per vine). The investigations carried out to study the efficacy of chlorantraniliprole on grape stem borer for successive three years under farmers field indicated that chlorantraniliprole @ 15g/vine applied just near the active root zone of the plant followed by irrigation has successfully managed the pest. The insecticide has translocated to all the parts of the plants and thereby stopped the activity of the pest which has resulted in to better growth of the plant and higher berry yield compared to other treatments under investigation. Thus, chlorantraniliprole 0.4 GR @ 15g/vine can be effective means in managing the stem borer.

Keywords: Chlorantraniliprole, grape stem borer, Celosterna scrabrator, management.

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Authors: B. Frączek

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The paper analyses the usage of the Internet by university students in Visegrad Countries (4V Countries) who study economic fields in their formal and informal financial education and captures the areas of untapped potential of Internet in educational processes. Higher education and training, technological readiness, and the financial market development are in the group of pillars, that are key for efficiency driven economies. These three pillars have become an inspiration to the research on using the Internet in the financial education among economic university students as the group of the best educated people in finance. The financial education is a process that allows for improving the level of financial literacy. In turn, the financial literacy it is the set of financial knowledge, skills, awareness and patterns influencing the financial decisions. The level of financial literacy influences the level of financial well-being of individuals, determines the scale of saving of households and at the same time gives the greater chance for sustainable and more predictable development of the financial market with the positive impact on economy. The financial literacy is necessary for each group of society but its appropriate level is desirable especially in respect of economics students as future participants of financial markets as well as the experts and advisors in financial decision making. The low level of financial literacy is the great problem of many target groups in both developing and developed countries and the financial education is seen as the best way of improving this situation. Also the financial inclusion plays the special role in enhancing the level of financial literacy in the aspect of education by practice as well as due to interrelation between level of financial literacy and degree of financial inclusion. Despite many initiatives under financial education, the level of financial literacy is still very low. Scientists still search for new ways of solving this problem. One of the proposal is more effective usage of the new technology in financial education, especially the Internet, because of the growing popularity of e-learning and the increasing number of Internet users, especially among young people who are called the Generation Net. Due to special role of the university students studying the economics fields for the future financial markets, students of four universities from Visegrad Countries (Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia) were invited to participate in the survey. The aim of the article is to present the level and ways of using the Internet technology in financial education and indicating the so far unused or underused opportunities.

Keywords: Financial education, financial inclusion, financial literacy, usage of Internet in education.

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Authors: A. Balbo, G. Colucci, M. Nicoli, L. Savoldi

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Hydrogen is expected to become an undisputed player in the ecological transition throughout the next decades. The decarbonization potential offered by this energy vector provides various opportunities for the so-called “hard-to-abate” sectors, including industrial production of iron and steel, glass, refineries and the heavy-duty transport. In this regard, Italy, in the framework of decarbonization plans for the whole European Union, has been considering a wider use of hydrogen to provide an alternative to fossil fuels in hard-to-abate sectors. This work aims to assess and compare different options concerning the pathway to be followed in the development of the future Italian energy system in order to meet decarbonization targets as established by the Paris Agreement and by the European Green Deal, and to infer a techno-economic analysis of the required asset alternatives to be used in that perspective. To accomplish this objective, the Energy System Optimization Model TEMOA-Italy is used, based on the open-source platform TEMOA and developed at PoliTo as a tool to be used for technology assessment and energy scenario analysis. The adopted assessment strategy includes two different scenarios to be compared with a business-as-usual one, which considers the application of current policies in a time horizon up to 2050. The studied scenarios are based on the up-to-date hydrogen-related targets and planned investments included in the National Hydrogen Strategy and in the Italian National Recovery and Resilience Plan, with the purpose of providing a critical assessment of what they propose. One scenario imposes decarbonization objectives for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050, without any other specific target. The second one (inspired to the national objectives on the development of the sector) promotes the deployment of the hydrogen value-chain. These scenarios provide feedback about the applications hydrogen could have in the Italian energy system, including transport, industry and synfuels production. Furthermore, the decarbonization scenario where hydrogen production is not imposed, will make use of this energy vector as well, showing the necessity of its exploitation in order to meet pledged targets by 2050. The distance of the planned policies from the optimal conditions for the achievement of Italian objectives is clarified, revealing possible improvements of various steps of the decarbonization pathway, which seems to have as a fundamental element Carbon Capture and Utilization technologies for its accomplishment. In line with the European Commission open science guidelines, the transparency and the robustness of the presented results are ensured by the adoption of the open-source open-data model such as the TEMOA-Italy.

Keywords: Decarbonization, energy system optimization models, hydrogen, open-source modeling, TEMOA.

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Authors: S. Vijayakumar, M. Sasikala, T. S. Mohammed Saleem, Gurusharan, K. Gauthaman

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The main objective of our study is to collect data about the profile of the asthmatic patients in Assam and thereby have a comprehensive knowledge of the factors influencing the asthmatic patients of the state and their medication pattern. We developed a search strategy to find any publication about the community based survey asthma related and used. These to search the MEDLINE (1996 to current literature) CINAHL DOAJ pubmed databases using the key phrases, Asthma, Respiratory disorders, Drug therapy of Asthma, database decision support system and asthma. The appropriate literature was printed out from the online source and library (Journal) source. The study was conducted through a set of structured and non-structured questionnaires targeted on the asthmatic patients belonging to the rural and urban areas of Assam, during the month of Dec 2006 to July 2007, 138 cases were studied in Gauwathi Medical College & Hospital located in Bhangagarh, Assam in India. The demographic characteristics a factor in 138 patients with asthma with allergic rhinitis (cases) gives the detail profile of asthmatic patient-s distribution of Assam as classified on the basis of age and sex. It is evident from the study that male populations (66%) are more prone to asthma as compared to the females (34%).Another striking features that emerged from this survey is the maximum prevalence of asthma in the age group of 20- 30 years followed by infants belonging to the age group of 7 (0.05%) 0-10years among both male and female populations of Assam. The high incidence of asthma in the age group of 20-30 years may probably be due to the allergy arising out of sudden exposure to dust and pollen which the children face while playing and going to the school. The rural females in the age group of 30-40 years are more prone to asthma than urban females in the same age group may be due to sex differentiation among the tribal population of the state. Pharmacists should educate the asthmatics how to use inhalers considering growing menace of asthma in the state. Safer drugs should be produced in the form of aerosol so that easy administration by the asthmatic patients and physicians of the state is possible for curing asthma. The health centers should be more equipped with the medicines to cure asthma in the state like Assam.

Keywords: Asthma, Respiratory disease, Smoker.

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Authors: Ali Reza Vaezi, Naser Fakori Ivand, Fereshteh Azarifam

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Inter-rill erosion is the detachment and transfer of soil particles between the rills which occurs due to the impact of raindrops and the shear stress of shallow surface runoff. This erosion can be affected by some soil properties such as texture, amount of organic matter and stability of soil aggregates. Information on the temporal variation of inter-rill erosion during a rainfall event and the effect of soil properties on it can help develop better methods to soil conservation in the hillslopes. The importance of this study is especially grate in semi-arid regions, where the soil is weakly aggregated and vegetation cover is mostly poor. Therefore, this research was conducted to investigate the temporal variation of surface flow and inter-rill erosion and the effect of soil properties on it in some semi-arid soils. A field experiment was done in eight different soil textures under simulated rainfalls with uniform intensity. A total of twenty four plots were installed for eight study soils with three replicates in the form of a random complete block design along the land. The plots were 1.2 m (length) × 1 m (width) in dimensions which designed with a distance of 3 m from each other across the slope. Then, soil samples were purred into the plots. Rainfall simulation experiments were done using a designed portable simulator with an intensity of 60 mm per hour for 60 minutes. Runoff production and soil loss were measured during 1 hour time with 5-min intervals. Soil properties including particle size distribution, aggregate stability, bulk density, exchangeable sodium percentages (ESP) and hydraulic conductivity (Ks) were determined in the soil samples. Correlation and regression analysis was done to determine the effect of soil properties on runoff and inter-rill erosion. Results indicated that the study soils have lower both organic matter content and aggregate stability. The soils, except for coarse textured textures, are calcareous and with relatively higher ESP. Runoff production and soil loss did not occur in sand texture, which was associated with higher infiltration and drainage rates. A strong relationship was found between inter-rill erosion and surface runoff (R2 = 0.75, p < 0.01). The correlation analysis showed that surface runoff was significantly affected by some soil properties consisting of sand, silt, clay, bulk density, gravel, Ks, lime (calcium carbonate), and ESP. The soils with lower Ks such as fine-textured soils, produced higher surface runoff and more inter-rill erosion. In the soils, surface runoff production temporally increased during rainfall and finally reached a peak after about 25-35 min. Time to peak was very short (30 min) in fine-textured soils, especially clay, which was related to their lower infiltration rate.

Keywords: Erosion plot, rainfall simulator, soil properties, surface flow.

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Authors: Wann-Ming Wey

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In recent years, in addition to face the external threats such as energy shortages and climate change, traffic congestion and environmental pollution have become anxious problems for many cities. Considering private automobile-oriented urban development had produced many negative environmental and social impacts, the transit-oriented development (TOD) has been considered as a sustainable urban model. TOD encourages public transport combined with friendly walking and cycling environment designs, however, non-motorized modes help improving human health, energy saving, and reducing carbon emissions. Due to environmental changes often affect the planners’ decision-making; this research applies dynamic network process (DNP) which includes the time dependent concept to promoting friendly walking and cycling environmental designs as an advanced planning support system for environment improvements.

This research aims to discuss what kinds of design strategies can improve a friendly walking and cycling environment under TOD. First of all, we collate and analyze environment designing factors by reviewing the relevant literatures as well as divide into three aspects of “safety”, “convenience”, and “amenity” from fifteen environment designing factors. Furthermore, we utilize fuzzy Delphi Technique (FDT) expert questionnaire to filter out the more important designing criteria for the study case. Finally, we utilized DNP expert questionnaire to obtain the weights changes at different time points for each design criterion. Based on the changing trends of each criterion weight, we are able to develop appropriate designing strategies as the reference for planners to allocate resources in a dynamic environment. In order to illustrate the approach we propose in this research, Taipei city as one example has been used as an empirical study, and the results are in depth analyzed to explain the application of our proposed approach.

Keywords: Environment Planning Support Systems, Walking and Cycling, Transit-oriented Development (TOD), Dynamic Network Process (DNP).

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Authors: Excellence Favor, Bakari M. M. Mwinyiwiwa

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Access to information holds the key to the empowerment of everybody despite where they are living. This research has been carried out in respect of the people living in developing countries, considering their plight and complex geographical, demographic, social-economic conditions surrounding the areas they live, which hinder access to information and of professionals providing services such as medical workers, which has led to high death rates and development stagnation. Research on Unified Communications and Integrated Collaborations (UCIC) system in the health sector of developing countries aims at creating a possible solution of bridging the digital canyon among the communities. The system is meant to deliver services in a seamless manner to assist health workers situated anywhere to be accessed easily and access information which will enhance service delivery. The proposed UCIC provides the most immersive telepresence experience for one-to-one or many-to-many meetings. Extending to locations anywhere in the world, the transformative platform delivers Ultra-low operating costs through the use of general purpose networks and using special lenses and track systems. The essence of this study is to create a security model for the deployment of the UCIC system in the health sector of developing countries. The model approach used for building the UCIC system security carefully considers the specific requirements for the health sector environment organization such as data centre, national, regional and district hospitals, and health centers IV, III, II and I and then builds the single best possible secure network to meet their needs. The security model demonstrates on how the components of the UCIC system will be protected physically and logically in the health sector environment. The UCIC system once adopted and implemented correctly will bring enhancement to the speed and quality of services offered by health workers. The capacities of UCIC will help health workers shorten decision cycles, accelerate service delivery and save lives by speeding access to information and by making it possible for all health workers and patients to collaborate ubiquitously.

Keywords: Developing Countries, Health Sector Environment, Security, Unified Communications and Integrated Collaborations.

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Authors: A. Mihoc, K. Cater

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On the bridge of a ship the officers are looking for visual aids to guide navigation in order to reconcile the outside world with the position communicated by the digital navigation system. Aids to navigation include: Lighthouses, lightships, sector lights, beacons, buoys, and others. They are designed to help navigators calculate their position, establish their course or avoid dangers. In poor visibility and dense traffic areas, it can be very difficult to identify these critical aids to guide navigation. The paper presents the usage of Augmented Reality (AR) as a means to present digital information about these aids to support navigation. To date, nautical navigation related mobile AR applications have been limited to the leisure industry. If proved viable, this prototype can facilitate the creation of other similar applications that could help commercial officers with navigation. While adopting a user centered design approach, the team has developed the prototype based on insights from initial research carried on board of several ships. The prototype, built on Nexus 9 tablet and Wikitude, features a head-up display of the navigational aids (lights) in the area, presented in AR and a bird’s eye view mode presented on a simplified map. The application employs the aids to navigation data managed by Hydrographic Offices and the tablet’s sensors: GPS, gyroscope, accelerometer, compass and camera. Sea trials on board of a Navy and a commercial ship revealed the end-users’ interest in using the application and further possibility of other data to be presented in AR. The application calculates the GPS position of the ship, the bearing and distance to the navigational aids; all within a high level of accuracy. However, during testing several issues were highlighted which need to be resolved as the prototype is developed further. The prototype stretched the capabilities of Wikitude, loading over 500 objects during tests in a major port. This overloaded the display and required over 45 seconds to load the data. Therefore, extra filters for the navigational aids are being considered in order to declutter the screen. At night, the camera is not powerful enough to distinguish all the lights in the area. Also, magnetic interference with the bridge of the ship generated a continuous compass error of the AR display that varied between 5 and 12 degrees. The deviation of the compass was consistent over the whole testing durations so the team is now looking at the possibility of allowing users to manually calibrate the compass. It is expected that for the usage of AR in professional maritime contexts, further development of existing AR tools and hardware is needed. Designers will also need to implement a user-centered design approach in order to create better interfaces and display technologies for enhanced solutions to aid navigation.

Keywords: Compass error, GPS, maritime navigation, mobile augmented reality.

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Authors: Mathias U. Bonet, Pericles Pilidis, Georgios Doulgeris

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A gas turbine-powered cruise Liner is scheduled to transport pilgrim passengers from Lagos-Nigeria to the Islamic port city of Jeddah in Saudi Arabia. Since the gas turbine is an air breathing machine, changes in the density and/or mass flow at the compressor inlet due to an encounter with variations in weather conditions induce negative effects on the performance of the power plant during the voyage. In practice, all deviations from the reference atmospheric conditions of 15 ^oC and 1.103 bar tend to affect the power output and other thermodynamic parameters of the gas turbine cycle. Therefore, this paper seeks to evaluate how a simple cycle marine gas turbine power plant would react under a variety of scenarios that may be encountered during a voyage as the ship sails across the Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea before arriving at its designated port of discharge. It is also an assessment that focuses on the effect of varying aerodynamic and hydrodynamic conditions which deteriorate the efficient operation of the propulsion system due to an increase in resistance that results from some projected levels of the ship hull fouling. The investigated passenger ship is designed to run at a service speed of 22 knots and cover a distance of 5787 nautical miles. The performance evaluation consists of three separate voyages that cover a variety of weather conditions in winter, spring and summer seasons. Real-time daily temperatures and the sea states for the selected transit route were obtained and used to simulate the voyage under the aforementioned operating conditions. Changes in engine firing temperature, power output as well as the total fuel consumed per voyage including other performance variables were separately predicted under both calm and adverse weather conditions. The collated data were obtained online from the UK Meteorological Office as well as the UK Hydrographic Office websites, while adopting the Beaufort scale for determining the magnitude of sea waves resulting from rough weather situations. The simulation of the gas turbine performance and voyage analysis was effected through the use of an integrated Cranfield-University-developed computer code known as ‘Turbomatch’ and ‘Poseidon’. It is a project that is aimed at developing a method for predicting the off design behavior of the marine gas turbine when installed and operated as the main prime mover for both propulsion and powering of all other auxiliary services onboard a passenger cruise liner. Furthermore, it is a techno-economic and environmental assessment that seeks to enable the forecast of the marine gas turbine part and full load performance as it relates to the fuel requirement for a complete voyage.

Keywords:

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Authors: Bernard Kumi-Boateng, Issaka Yakubu

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Forest fire, which is, an uncontrolled fire occurring in nature has become a major concern for the Forestry Commission of Ghana (FCG). The forest fires in Ghana usually result in massive destruction and take a long time for the firefighting crews to gain control over the situation. In order to assess the effect of forest fire at local scale, it is important to consider the role fire plays in vegetation composition, biodiversity, soil erosion, and the hydrological cycle. The occurrence, frequency and behaviour of forest fires vary over time and space, primarily as a result of the complicated influences of changes in land use, vegetation composition, fire suppression efforts, and other indigenous factors. One of the forest zones in Ghana with a high level of vegetation stress is the Goaso forest area. The area has experienced changes in its traditional land use such as hunting, charcoal production, inefficient logging practices and rural abandonment patterns. These factors which were identified as major causes of forest fire, have recently modified the incidence of fire in the Goaso area. In spite of the incidence of forest fires in the Goaso forest area, most of the forest services do not provide a cartographic representation of the burned areas. This has resulted in significant amount of information being required by the firefighting unit of the FCG to understand fire risk factors and its spatial effects. This study uses Remote Sensing and Geographic Information System techniques to develop a fire risk hazard model using the Goaso Forest Area (GFA) as a case study. From the results of the study, natural forest, agricultural lands and plantation cover types were identified as the major fuel contributing loads. However, water bodies, roads and settlements were identified as minor fuel contributing loads. Based on the major and minor fuel contributing loads, a forest fire risk hazard model with a reasonable accuracy has been developed for the GFA to assist decision making.

Keywords: Forest risk, GIS, remote sensing, Goaso.

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Authors: Ana Pauna

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The Expert Witness Testimony in the Battered Woman Syndrome Expert witness testimony (EWT) is a kind of information given by an expert specialized in the field (here in BWS) to the jury in order to help the court better understand the case. EWT does not always work in favor of the battered women. Two main decision-making models are discussed in the paper: the Mathematical model and the Explanation model. In the first model, the jurors calculate ″the importance and strength of each piece of evidence″ whereas in the second model they try to integrate the EWT with the evidence and create a coherent story that would describe the crime. The jury often misunderstands and misjudges battered women for their action (or in this case inaction). They assume that these women are masochists and accept being mistreated for if a man abuses a woman constantly, she should and could divorce him or simply leave at any time. The research in the domain found that indeed, expert witness testimony has a powerful influence on juror’s decisions thus its quality needs to be further explored. One of the important factors that need further studies is a bias called the dispositionist worldview (a belief that what happens to people is of their own doing). This kind of attributional bias represents a tendency to think that a person’s behavior is due to his or her disposition, even when the behavior is clearly attributed to the situation. Hypothesis The hypothesis of this paper is that if a juror has a dispositionist worldview then he or she will blame the rape victim for triggering the assault. The juror would therefore commit the fundamental attribution error and believe that the victim’s disposition caused the rape and not the situation she was in. Methods The subjects in the study were 500 randomly sampled undergraduate students from McGill, Concordia, Université de Montréal and UQAM. Dispositional Worldview was scored on the Dispositionist Worldview Questionnaire. After reading the Rape Scenarios, each student was asked to play the role of a juror and answer a questionnaire consisting of 7 questions about the responsibility, causality and fault of the victim. Results The results confirm the hypothesis which states that if a juror has a dispositionist worldview then he or she will blame the rape victim for triggering the assault. By doing so, the juror commits the fundamental attribution error because he will believe that the victim’s disposition, and not the constraints or opportunities of the situation, caused the rape scenario.

Keywords: bias, expert/witness testimony, attribution error, jury, rape myth

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Authors: Marcel Schneider, Nils Nießen

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Microscopic simulation tool kits allow for consideration of the two processes of railway operations and the previous timetable production. Block occupation conflicts on both process levels are often solved by using defined train priorities. These conflict resolutions (dispatching decisions) generate reactionary delays to the involved trains. The sum of reactionary delays is commonly used to evaluate the quality of railway operations, which describes the timetable robustness. It is either compared to an acceptable train performance or the delays are appraised economically by linear monetary functions. It is impossible to adequately evaluate dispatching decisions without a well-founded objective function. This paper presents a new approach for the evaluation of dispatching decisions. The approach uses mode choice models and considers the behaviour of the end-customers. These models evaluate the reactionary delays in more detail and consider other competing modes of transport. The new approach pursues the coupling of a microscopic model of railway operations with the macroscopic choice mode model. At first, it will be implemented for railway operations process but it can also be used for timetable production. The evaluation considers the possibility for the customer to interchange to other transport modes. The new approach starts to look at rail and road, but it can also be extended to air travel. The result of mode choice models is the modal split. The reactions by the end-customers have an impact on the revenue of the train operating companies. Different purposes of travel have different payment reserves and tolerances towards late running. Aside from changes to revenues, longer journey times can also generate additional costs. The costs are either time- or track-specific and arise from required changes to rolling stock or train crew cycles. Only the variable values are summarised in the contribution margin, which is the base for the monetary evaluation of delays. The contribution margin is calculated for different possible solutions to the same conflict. The conflict resolution is optimised until the monetary loss becomes minimal. The iterative process therefore determines an optimum conflict resolution by monitoring the change to the contribution margin. Furthermore, a monetary value of each dispatching decision can also be derived.

Keywords: Choice of mode, monetary evaluation, railway operations, reactionary delays.

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Authors: Miriam I. Lautenschläger, Max H. Scheiwe, Kay A. Weidenmann, Frank Henning, Peter Elsner

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Due to increasing environmental awareness jute fibers are more often used in fiber reinforced composites. In the Sheet Molding Compound (SMC) process, the mold cavity is filled via material flow allowing more complex component design. But, the difficulty of using jute fibers in this process is the decreased capacity of fiber movement in the mold. A comparative flow study with jute nonwoven reinforced SMC was conducted examining the influence of the fiber volume content, the grammage of the jute nonwoven textile and a mechanical modification of the nonwoven textile on the flowability. The nonwoven textile reinforcement was selected to support homogeneous fiber distribution. Trials were performed using two SMC paste formulations differing only in filler type. Platy-shaped kaolin with a mean particle size of 0.8 μm and ashlar calcium carbonate with a mean particle size of 2.7 μm were selected as fillers. Ensuring comparability of the two SMC paste formulations the filler content was determined to reach equal initial viscosity for both systems. The calcium carbonate filled paste was set as reference. The flow study was conducted using a jute nonwoven textile with 300 g/m² as reference. The manufactured SMC sheets were stacked and centrally placed in a square mold. The mold coverage was varied between 25 and 90% keeping the weight of the stack for comparison constant. Comparing the influence of the two fillers kaolin yielded better results regarding a homogeneous fiber distribution. A mold coverage of about 68% was already sufficient to homogeneously fill the mold cavity whereas for calcium carbonate filled system about 79% mold coverage was necessary. The flow study revealed a strong influence of the fiber volume content on the flowability. A fiber volume content of 12 vol.-% and 25 vol.-% were compared for both SMC formulations. The lower fiber volume content strongly supported fiber transport whereas 25 vol.-% showed insignificant influence. The results indicate a limiting fiber volume content for the flowability. The influence of the nonwoven textile grammage was determined using nonwoven jute material with 500 g/m² and a fiber volume content of 20 vol.-%. The 500 g/m² reinforcement material showed inferior results with regard to fiber movement. A mold coverage of about 90 % was required to prevent the destruction of the nonwoven structure. Below this mold coverage the 500 g/m² nonwoven material was ripped and torn apart. Low mold coverages led to damage of the textile reinforcement. Due to the ripped nonwoven structure the textile was modified with cuts in order to facilitate fiber movement in the mold. Parallel cuts of about 20 mm length and 20 mm distance to each other were applied to the textile and stacked with varying orientations prior to molding. Stacks with unidirectional orientated cuts over stacks with cuts in various directions e.g. (0°, 45°, 90°, -45°) were investigated. The mechanical modification supported tearing of the textile without achieving benefit for the flowability.

Keywords: Filler, flowability, jute fiber, nonwoven, sheet molding compound.

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Authors: Anna Słupik, Krzysztof Jaworski, Anna Mosiołek, Dariusz Białoszewski

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Background: Maintaining the correct body balance is essential in the prevention of falls in the elderly, which is especially important for women because of postmenopausal osteoporosis and the serious consequences of falls. One of the exercise methods which is very popular among adults, and which may affect body balance in the positive way is the Pilates method. The aim of the study was to evaluate the effect of regular Pilates exercises on the ability to maintain body balance in static conditions in adult healthy women. Material and methods: The study group consisted of 20 healthy women attending Pilates twice a week for at least 1 year. The control group consisted of 20 healthy women physically inactive. Women in the age range from 35 to 50 years old without pain in musculoskeletal system or other pain were only qualified to the groups. Body balance was assessed using MatScan VersaTek platform with Sway Analysis Module based on Matscan Clinical 6.7 software (Tekscan Inc., U.S.A). The balance was evaluated under the following conditions: standing on both feet with eyes open, standing on both feet with eyes closed, one-leg standing (separately on the right and left foot) with eyes open. Each test lasted 30 seconds. The following parameters were calculated: estimated size of the ellipse of 95% confidence, the distance covered by the Center of Gravity (COG), the size of the maximum shift in the sagittal and frontal planes and load distribution between the left and right foot, as well as between rear- and forefoot. Results: It was found that there is significant difference between the groups in favor of the study group in the size of the confidence ellipse and maximum shifts of COG in the sagittal plane during standing on both feet, both with the eyes open and closed (p <0.05). While standing on one leg both on the right and left leg, with eyes opened there was a significant difference in favor of the study group, in terms of the size of confidence ellipse, the size of the maximum shifts in the sagittal and in the frontal plane (p <0.05). There were no differences between the distribution of load between the right and left foot (standing with both feet), nor between fore- and rear foot (in standing with both feet or one-leg). Conclusions: 1. Static balance in women exercising regularly by Pilates method is better than in inactive women, which may in the future prevent falls and their consequences. 2. The observed differences in maintaining balance in frontal plane in one-leg standing may indicate a positive impact of Pilates exercises on the ability to maintain global balance in terms of reduced support surface. 3. Pilates method can be used as a form preventive therapy for all people who are expected to have problems with body balance in the future, for example in chronic neurological disorders or vestibular problems. 4. The results have shown that, further prospective randomized research on a larger and more representative group is needed.

Keywords: Balance exercises, body balance, Pilates, pressure distribution, women.

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Authors: Safak Isik, Ozalp Vayvay

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Strategic partnerships with suppliers play a vital role for the long-term value-based supply chain. This strategic collaboration keeps still being one of the top priority of many business organizations in order to create more additional value; benefiting mainly from supplier’s specialization, capacity and innovative power, securing supply and better managing costs and quality. However, many organizations encounter difficulties in initiating, developing and managing those partnerships and many attempts result in failures. One of the reasons for such failure is the incompatibility of members of this partnership or in other words wrong supplier selection which emphasize the significance of the selection process since it is the beginning stage. An effective selection process of strategic suppliers is critical to the success of the partnership. Although there are several research studies to select the suppliers in literature, only a few of them is related to strategic supplier selection for long-term partnership. The purpose of this study is to propose a conceptual model for the selection of strategic partnership suppliers. A two-stage approach has been used in proposed model incorporating first segmentation and second selection. In the first stage; considering the fact that not all suppliers are strategically equal and instead of a long list of potential suppliers, Kraljic’s purchasing portfolio matrix can be used for segmentation. This supplier segmentation is the process of categorizing suppliers based on a defined set of criteria in order to identify types of suppliers and determine potential suppliers for strategic partnership. In the second stage, from a pool of potential suppliers defined at first phase, a comprehensive evaluation and selection can be performed to finally define strategic suppliers considering various tangible and intangible criteria. Since a long-term relationship with strategic suppliers is anticipated, criteria should consider both current and future status of the supplier. Based on an extensive literature review; strategical, operational and organizational criteria have been determined and elaborated. The result of the selection can also be used to determine suppliers who are not ready for a partnership but to be developed for strategic partnership. Since the model is based on multiple criteria for both stages, it provides a framework for further utilization of Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) techniques. The model may also be applied to a wide range of industries and involve managerial features in business organizations.

Keywords: Kraljic’s matrix, purchasing portfolio, strategic supplier selection, supplier collaboration, supplier partnership, supplier segmentation.

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Authors: Edward A. Osifodunrin, Jose Manuel Dias Lopes

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In Nigeria, enormous efforts/resources had, over the years, been expended on promoting financial inclusion (FI); however, it is seemingly discouraging that many of its self-declared targets on FI remained unachieved, especially amongst the Rural Dwellers and Actors in the Informal Sectors (RDAIS). Expectedly, many reasons had been earmarked for these failures: low literacy level, huge informal/rural sectors etc. This study posits that in spite of these truly-debilitating factors, these FI policy failures could have been avoided or mitigated if the principles of active and better-managed citizens’ participation had been strictly followed in the (re)design/implementation of its FI policies. In other words, in a bid to mitigate the prevalent financial exclusion (FE) in Nigeria, this study hypothesizes the significant positive impact of involving the RDAIS in policy-wide decision making in the FI domain, backed by a preliminary empirical validation. Also, the study introduces the RDAIS-focused Participatory Financial Inclusion Policy (PFIP) as a major FI policy regeneration/improvement tool. The three categories of respondents that served as research subjects are FI experts in Nigeria (n = 72), RDAIS from the very rural/remote village of Unguwar Dogo in Northern Nigeria (n = 43) and RDAIS from another rural village of Sekere (n = 56) in the Southern region of Nigeria. Using survey design (5-point Likert scale questionnaires), random/stratified sampling, and descriptive/inferential statistics, the study often recorded independent consensus (amongst these three categories of respondents) that RDAIS’s active participation in iterative FI policy initiation, (re)design, implementation, (re)evaluation could indeed give improved FI outcomes. However, few questionnaire items also recorded divergent opinions and various statistically (in)significant differences on the mean scores of these three categories. The PFIP (or any customized version of it) should then be carefully integrated into the NFIS of Nigeria (and possibly in the NFIS of other developing countries) to truly/fully provide FI policy integration for these excluded RDAIS and arrest the prevalence of FE.

Keywords: Citizens’ participation, development, financial inclusion, formal financial services, national financial inclusion strategy, participatory financial inclusion policy, rural dwellers and actors in the informal sectors.

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Authors: Fazıl Gökgöz, Fahrettin Filiz

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Load forecasting has become crucial in recent years and become popular in forecasting area. Many different power forecasting models have been tried out for this purpose. Electricity load forecasting is necessary for energy policies, healthy and reliable grid systems. Effective power forecasting of renewable energy load leads the decision makers to minimize the costs of electric utilities and power plants. Forecasting tools are required that can be used to predict how much renewable energy can be utilized. The purpose of this study is to explore the effectiveness of LSTM-based neural networks for estimating renewable energy loads. In this study, we present models for predicting renewable energy loads based on deep neural networks, especially the Long Term Memory (LSTM) algorithms. Deep learning allows multiple layers of models to learn representation of data. LSTM algorithms are able to store information for long periods of time. Deep learning models have recently been used to forecast the renewable energy sources such as predicting wind and solar energy power. Historical load and weather information represent the most important variables for the inputs within the power forecasting models. The dataset contained power consumption measurements are gathered between January 2016 and December 2017 with one-hour resolution. Models use publicly available data from the Turkish Renewable Energy Resources Support Mechanism. Forecasting studies have been carried out with these data via deep neural networks approach including LSTM technique for Turkish electricity markets. 432 different models are created by changing layers cell count and dropout. The adaptive moment estimation (ADAM) algorithm is used for training as a gradient-based optimizer instead of SGD (stochastic gradient). ADAM performed better than SGD in terms of faster convergence and lower error rates. Models performance is compared according to MAE (Mean Absolute Error) and MSE (Mean Squared Error). Best five MAE results out of 432 tested models are 0.66, 0.74, 0.85 and 1.09. The forecasting performance of the proposed LSTM models gives successful results compared to literature searches.

Keywords: Deep learning, long-short-term memory, energy, renewable energy load forecasting.

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Authors: Rahman Davtalab, Saba Ghotbi

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Florida is one of the most vulnerable states to natural disasters among the 50 states of the USA. The state exposed by tropical storms, hurricanes, storm surge, landslide, etc. Besides the mentioned natural phenomena, global warming, sea-level rise, and other anthropogenic environmental changes make a very complicated and unpredictable system for decision-makers. In this study, we tried to highlight the effects of climate change and sea-level rise on surface water and groundwater systems for three different geographical locations in Florida; Main Canal of Jacksonville Beach in the northeast of Florida adjacent to the Atlantic Ocean, Grace Lake in central Florida, far away from surrounded coastal line, and Mc Dill in Florida and adjacent to Tampa Bay and Mexican Gulf. An integrated hydrologic and hydraulic model was developed and simulated for all three cases, including surface water, groundwater, or a combination of both. For the case study of Main Canal-Jacksonville Beach, the investigation showed that a 76 cm sea-level rise in time horizon 2060 could increase the flow velocity of the tide cycle for the main canal's outlet and headwater. This case also revealed how the sea level rise could change the tide duration, potentially affecting the coastal ecosystem. As expected, sea-level rise can raise the groundwater level. Therefore, for the Mc Dill case, the effect of groundwater rise on soil storage and the performance of stormwater retention ponds is investigated. The study showed that sea-level rise increased the pond’s seasonal high water up to 40 cm by time horizon 2060. The reliability of the retention pond is dropped from 99% for the current condition to 54% for the future. The results also proved that the retention pond could not retain and infiltrate the designed treatment volume within 72 hours, which is a significant indication of increasing pollutants in the future. Grace Lake case study investigates the effects of climate change on groundwater recharge. This study showed that using the dynamically downscaled data of the groundwater recharge can decline up to 24 % by the mid-21st century. 

Keywords: groundwater, surface water, Florida, retention pond, tide, sea-level rise

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Authors: Denise Levy, Gian M. A. A. Sordi

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This web based project focuses on continuing corporate education and improving workers' skills in Brazilian radioactive facilities throughout the country. The potential of Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs) shall contribute to improve the global communication in this very large country, where it is a strong challenge to ensure high quality professional information to as many people as possible. The main objective of this system is to provide Brazilian radioactive facilities a complete web-based repository - in Portuguese - for research, consultation and information, offering conditions for learning and improving professional and personal skills. UNIPRORAD is a web based system to offer unified programs and inter-related information about radiological protection programs. The content includes the best practices for radioactive facilities in order to meet both national standards and international recommendations published by different organizations over the past decades: International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP), International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and National Nuclear Energy Commission (CNEN). The website counts on concepts, definitions and theory about optimization and ionizing radiation monitoring procedures. Moreover, the content presents further discussions related to some national and international recommendations, such as potential exposure, which is currently one of the most important research fields in radiological protection. Only two publications of ICRP develop expressively the issue and there is still a lack of knowledge of fail probabilities, for there are still uncertainties to find effective paths to quantify probabilistically the occurrence of potential exposures and the probabilities to reach a certain level of dose. To respond to this challenge, this project discusses and introduces potential exposures in a more quantitative way than national and international recommendations. Articulating ICRP and AIEA valid recommendations and official reports, in addition to scientific papers published in major international congresses, the website discusses and suggests a number of effective actions towards safety which can be incorporated into labor practice. The WEB platform was created according to corporate public needs, taking into account the development of a robust but flexible system, which can be easily adapted to future demands. ICTs provide a vast array of new communication capabilities and allow to spread information to as many people as possible at low costs and high quality communication. This initiative shall provide opportunities for employees to increase professional skills, stimulating development in this large country where it is an enormous challenge to ensure effective and updated information to geographically distant facilities, minimizing costs and optimizing results.

Keywords: Distance learning, information and communication technology, nuclear science, radioactive facilities.

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Authors: R.M. Kainkwa

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The African Great Lakes Region refers to the zone around lakes Victoria, Tanganyika, Albert, Edward, Kivu, and Malawi. The main source of electricity in this region is hydropower whose systems are generally characterized by relatively weak, isolated power schemes, poor maintenance and technical deficiencies with limited electricity infrastructures. Most of the hydro sources are rain fed, and as such there is normally a deficiency of water during the dry seasons and extended droughts. In such calamities fossil fuels sources, in particular petroleum products and natural gas, are normally used to rescue the situation but apart from them being nonrenewable, they also release huge amount of green house gases to our environment which in turn accelerates the global warming that has at present reached an amazing stage. Wind power is ample, renewable, widely distributed, clean, and free energy source that does not consume or pollute water. Wind generated electricity is one of the most practical and commercially viable option for grid quality and utility scale electricity production. However, the main shortcoming associated with electric wind power generation is fluctuation in its output both in space and time. Before making a decision to establish a wind park at a site, the wind speed features there should therefore be known thoroughly as well as local demand or transmission capacity. The main objective of this paper is to utilise monthly average wind speed data collected from one prospective site within the African Great Lakes Region to demonstrate that the available wind power there is high enough to generate electricity. The mean monthly values were calculated from records gathered on hourly basis for a period of 5 years (2001 to 2005) from a site in Tanzania. The documentations that were collected at a height of 2 m were projected to a height of 50 m which is the standard hub height of wind turbines. The overall monthly average wind speed was found to be 12.11 m/s whereas June to November was established to be the windy season as the wind speed during the session is above the overall monthly wind speed. The available wind power density corresponding to the overall mean monthly wind speed was evaluated to be 1072 W/m2, a potential that is worthwhile harvesting for the purpose of electric generation.

Keywords: Hydro power, windy season, available wind powerdensity.

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Authors: Dale Dzemydiene, Aurelija Burinskiene, Arunas Miliauskas, Kristina Ciziuniene

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Data flow and the purpose of reporting the data are different and dependent on business needs. Different parameters are reported and transferred regularly during freight delivery. This business practices form the dataset constructed for each time point and contain all required information for freight moving decisions. As a significant amount of these data is used for various purposes, an integrating methodological approach must be developed to respond to the indicated problem. The proposed methodology contains several steps: (1) collecting context data sets and data validation; (2) multi-objective analysis for optimizing freight transfer services. For data validation, the study involves Grubbs outliers analysis, particularly for data cleaning and the identification of statistical significance of data reporting event cases. The Grubbs test is often used as it measures one external value at a time exceeding the boundaries of standard normal distribution. In the study area, the test was not widely applied by authors, except when the Grubbs test for outlier detection was used to identify outsiders in fuel consumption data. In the study, the authors applied the method with a confidence level of 99%. For the multi-objective analysis, the authors would like to select the forms of construction of the genetic algorithms, which have more possibilities to extract the best solution. For freight delivery management, the schemas of genetic algorithms' structure are used as a more effective technique. Due to that, the adaptable genetic algorithm is applied for the description of choosing process of the effective transportation corridor. In this study, the multi-objective genetic algorithm methods are used to optimize the data evaluation and select the appropriate transport corridor. The authors suggest a methodology for the multi-objective analysis, which evaluates collected context data sets and uses this evaluation to determine a delivery corridor for freight transfer service in the multi-modal transportation network. In the multi-objective analysis, authors include safety components, the number of accidents a year, and freight delivery time in the multi-modal transportation network. The proposed methodology has practical value in the management of multi-modal transportation processes.

Keywords: Multi-objective decision support, analysis, data validation, freight delivery, multi-modal transportation, genetic programming methods.

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Authors: Denise Levy, Anna Lucia C. H. Villavicencio

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Food irradiation is a processing and preservation technique to eliminate insects and parasites and reduce disease-causing microorganisms. Moreover, the process helps to inhibit sprouting and delay ripening, extending fresh fruits and vegetables shelf-life. Nevertheless, most Brazilian consumers seem to misunderstand the difference between irradiated food and radioactive food and the general public has major concerns about the negative health effects and environmental contamination. Society´s judgment and decision making are directly linked to perceived benefits and risks. The web-based project entitled ‘Scientific information about food irradiation: Internet as a tool to approach science and society’ was created by the Nuclear and Energetic Research Institute (IPEN), in order to offer an interdisciplinary approach to science education, integrating economic, ethical, social and political aspects of food irradiation. This project takes into account that, misinformation and unfounded preconceived ideas impact heavily on the acceptance of irradiated food and purchase intention by the Brazilian consumer. Taking advantage of the potential value of the Internet to enhance communication and education among general public, a research study was carried out regarding the possibilities and trends of Information and Communication Technologies among the Brazilian population. The content includes concepts, definitions and Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ) about processes, safety, advantages, limitations and the possibilities of food irradiation, including health issues, as well as its impacts on the environment. The project counts on eight self-instructional interactive web courses, situating scientific content in relevant social contexts in order to encourage self-learning and further reflections. Communication is a must to improve public understanding of science. The use of information technology for quality scientific divulgation shall contribute greatly to provide information throughout the country, spreading information to as many people as possible, minimizing geographic distances and stimulating communication and development.

Keywords: Food irradiation, multimedia learning tools, nuclear science, society and education.

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Authors: Emily Kislik, Gabriel Mantilla Saltos, Gladys Torres, Mercy Borbor-Córdova

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The Galápagos Marine Reserve (GMR) is an internationally-recognized region of consistent upwelling events, high productivity, and rich biodiversity. Despite its high-nutrient, low-chlorophyll condition, the archipelago has experienced phytoplankton blooms, especially in the western section between Isabela and Fernandina Islands. However, little is known about how climate variability will affect future phytoplankton standing stock in the Galápagos, and no consistent protocols currently exist to quantify phytoplankton biomass, identify species, or monitor for potential harmful algal blooms (HABs) within the archipelago. This analysis investigates physical, chemical, and biological oceanic variables that contribute to algal blooms within the GMR, using 4 km Aqua MODIS satellite imagery and 0.125-degree wind stress data from January 2003 to December 2016. Furthermore, this study analyzes chlorophyll-a concentrations at varying spatial scales— within the greater archipelago, as well as within five smaller bioregions based on species biodiversity in the GMR. Seasonal and interannual trend analyses, correlations, and hotspot identification were performed. Results demonstrate that chlorophyll-a is expressed in two seasons throughout the year in the GMR, most frequently in September and March, with a notable hotspot in the Elizabeth Bay bioregion. Interannual chlorophyll-a trend analyses revealed highest peaks in 2003, 2007, 2013, and 2016, and variables that correlate highly with chlorophyll-a include surface temperature and particulate organic carbon. This study recommends future in situ sampling locations for phytoplankton monitoring, including the Elizabeth Bay bioregion. Conclusions from this study contribute to the knowledge of oceanic drivers that catalyze primary productivity and consequently affect species biodiversity within the GMR. Additionally, this research can inform policy and decision-making strategies for species conservation and management within bioregions of the Galápagos.

Keywords: Bioregions, ecological monitoring, phytoplankton, remote sensing.

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Authors: Aspasia Koutsokosta, Stefanos Katsavounis

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This paper reviews the model-based qualitative and quantitative Operations Management research in the context of Construction Supply Chain Management (CSCM). Construction industry has been traditionally blamed for low productivity, cost and time overruns, waste, high fragmentation and adversarial relationships. The construction industry has been slower than other industries to employ the Supply Chain Management (SCM) concept and develop models that support the decision-making and planning. However the last decade there is a distinct shift from a project-based to a supply-based approach of construction management. CSCM comes up as a new promising management tool of construction operations and improves the performance of construction projects in terms of cost, time and quality. Modeling the Construction Supply Chain (CSC) offers the means to reap the benefits of SCM, make informed decisions and gain competitive advantage. Different modeling approaches and methodologies have been applied in the multi-disciplinary and heterogeneous research field of CSCM. The literature review reveals that a considerable percentage of the CSC modeling research accommodates conceptual or process models which present general management frameworks and do not relate to acknowledged soft Operations Research methods. We particularly focus on the model-based quantitative research and categorize the CSCM models depending on their scope, objectives, modeling approach, solution methods and software used. Although over the last few years there has been clearly an increase of research papers on quantitative CSC models, we identify that the relevant literature is very fragmented with limited applications of simulation, mathematical programming and simulation-based optimization. Most applications are project-specific or study only parts of the supply system. Thus, some complex interdependencies within construction are neglected and the implementation of the integrated supply chain management is hindered. We conclude this paper by giving future research directions and emphasizing the need to develop optimization models for integrated CSCM. We stress that CSC modeling needs a multi-dimensional, system-wide and long-term perspective. Finally, prior applications of SCM to other industries have to be taken into account in order to model CSCs, but not without translating the generic concepts to the context of construction industry.

Keywords: Construction supply chain management, modeling, operations research, optimization and simulation.

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Authors: Brennan Lodge

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Amidst a complex regulatory landscape, Retrieval Augmented Generation (RAG) emerges as a transformative tool for Governance Risk and Compliance (GRC) officers. This paper details the application of RAG in synthesizing Large Language Models (LLMs) with external knowledge bases, offering GRC professionals an advanced means to adapt to rapid changes in compliance requirements. While the development for standalone LLMs is exciting, such models do have their downsides. LLMs cannot easily expand or revise their memory, and they cannot straightforwardly provide insight into their predictions, and may produce “hallucinations.” Leveraging a pre-trained seq2seq transformer and a dense vector index of domain-specific data, this approach integrates real-time data retrieval into the generative process, enabling gap analysis and the dynamic generation of compliance and risk management content. We delve into the mechanics of RAG, focusing on its dual structure that pairs parametric knowledge contained within the transformer model with non-parametric data extracted from an updatable corpus. This hybrid model enhances decision-making through context-rich insights, drawing from the most current and relevant information, thereby enabling GRC officers to maintain a proactive compliance stance. Our methodology aligns with the latest advances in neural network fine-tuning, providing a granular, token-level application of retrieved information to inform and generate compliance narratives. By employing RAG, we exhibit a scalable solution that can adapt to novel regulatory challenges and cybersecurity threats, offering GRC officers a robust, predictive tool that augments their expertise. The granular application of RAG’s dual structure not only improves compliance and risk management protocols but also informs the development of compliance narratives with pinpoint accuracy. It underscores AI’s emerging role in strategic risk mitigation and proactive policy formation, positioning GRC officers to anticipate and navigate the complexities of regulatory evolution confidently.

Keywords: Retrieval Augmented Generation, Governance Risk and Compliance, Cybersecurity, AI-driven Compliance, Risk Management, Generative AI.

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Authors: Alan Crowle, Philpp Thies

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s the floating offshore wind turbine industry continues to develop and grow, the capabilities of established port facilities need to be assessed as to their ability to support the expanding construction and installation requirements. This paper assesses current infrastructure requirements and projected changes to port facilities that may be required to support the floating offshore wind industry. Understanding the infrastructure needs of the floating offshore renewable industry will help to identify the port-related requirements. Floating offshore wind turbines can be installed further out to sea and in deeper waters than traditional fixed offshore wind arrays, meaning it can take advantage of stronger winds. Separate ports are required for substructure construction, fit-out of the turbines, moorings, subsea cables and maintenance. Large areas are required for the laydown of mooring equipment, inter array cables, turbine blades and nacelles. The capabilities of established port facilities to support floating wind farms are assessed by evaluation of size of substructures, height of wind turbine with regards to the cranes for fitting of blades, distance to offshore site and offshore installation vessel characteristics. The paper will discuss the advantages and disadvantages of using large land based cranes, inshore floating crane vessels or offshore crane vessels at the fit-out port for the installation of the turbine. Water depths requirements for import of materials and export of the completed structures will be considered. There are additional costs associated with any emerging technology. However, part of the popularity of Floating Offshore Wind Turbines stems from the cost savings against permanent structures like fixed wind turbines. Floating Offshore Wind Turbine developers can benefit from lighter, more cost effective equipment which can be assembled in port and towed to site rather than relying on large, expensive installation vessels to transport and erect fixed bottom turbines. The ability to assemble Floating Offshore Wind Turbines equipment on shore means minimising highly weather dependent operations like offshore heavy lifts and assembly, saving time and costs and reducing safety risks for offshore workers. Maintenance might take place in safer onshore conditions for barges and semi submersibles. Offshore renewables, such as floating wind, can take advantage of this wealth of experience, while oil and gas operators can deploy this experience at the same time as entering the renewables space. The floating offshore wind industry is in the early stages of development and port facilities are required for substructure fabrication, turbine manufacture, turbine construction and maintenance support. The paper discusses the potential floating wind substructures as this provides a snapshot of the requirements at the present time, and potential technological developments required for commercial development. Scaling effects of demonstration-scale projects will be addressed; however the primary focus will be on commercial-scale (30+ units) device floating wind energy farms.

Keywords: Floating offshore wind turbine, port logistics, installation, construction.

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Authors: Najaf Hedayat

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Food and fibre production in arid and semi-arid regions has emerged as one of the major challenges for various socio-economic and political reasons such as the food security and self-sufficiency. Productive use of the renewable water resources has risen on top ofthe decision-making agenda. For this reason, efficient operation and maintenance of modern irrigation and drainage schemes become part and parcel and indispensible reality in agricultural policy making arena. The aim of this paper is to investigate the complexity of operating and maintaining such schemes, mainly focussing on challenges which enhance and opportunities that impedsustainable food and fibre production. The methodology involved using secondary data complemented byroutine observations and stakeholders views on issues that influence the O&M in the Dez command area. The SPSS program was used as an analytical framework for data analysis and interpretation.Results indicate poor application efficiency in most croplands, much of which is attributed to deficient operation of conveyance and distribution canals. These in turn, are reportedly linked to inadequate maintenance of the pumping stations and hydraulic structures like turnouts,flumes and other control systems particularly in the secondary and tertiary canals. Results show that the aforementioned deficiencies have been the major impediment to establishing regular flow toward the farm gates which subsequently undermine application efficiency and tillage operationsat farm level. Results further show that accumulative impact of such deficiencies has been the major causes of poorcrop yield and quality that deem production system in these croplands uneconomic. Results further show that the present state might undermine the sustainability of agricultural system in the command area. The overall conclusion being that present water management is unlikely to be responsive to challenges that the sector faces. And in the absence of coherent measures to shift the status quo situation in favour of more productive resource use, it would be hard to fulfil the objectives of the National Economic and Socio-cultural Development Plans.

Keywords: renewable water resources, Dez scheme, irrigationand drainage, sustainable crop production, O&M

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Authors: Abdel-Samad M. Ali, Ali A. Hadi Al-Shawi

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Discrimination against women and girls impairs progress in all domains of development articulated either in the framework of Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) or in the Post-2015 Development Agenda. Paper aspires to create greater awareness among researchers and policy makers of the challenges posed by gender gaps and the opportunities created by reducing them within the Arab region. The study reveals how Arab countries are closing in on gender-oriented targets of the third and fifth MDGs. While some countries can claim remarkable achievements particularly in girls’ equality in education, there is still a long way to go to keep Arab’s commitments to current and future generations in other countries and subregions especially in the economic participation or in the political empowerment of women. No country has closed or even expected to close the economic participation gap or the political empowerment gap. This should provide the incentive to keep moving forward in the Post-2015 Agenda. Findings of the study prove that while Arab states have uneven achievements in reducing maternal mortality, Arab women remain at a disadvantage in the labour market. For Arab region especially LDCs, improving maternal health is part of the unmet agenda for the post-2015 period and still calls for intensified efforts and procedures. While antenatal care coverage is improving across the Arab region, progress is marginal in LDCs. To achieve proper realization of gender equality and empowerment of women in the Arab region in the post-2015 agenda, the study presents critical key challenges to be addressed. These challenges include: Negative cultural norms and stereotypes; violence against women and girls; early marriage and child labour; women’s limited control over their own bodies; limited ability of women to generate their own income and control assets and property; gender-based discrimination in law and in practice; women’s unequal participation in private and public decision making autonomy; and limitations in data. However, in all Arab states, gender equality must be integrated as a goal across all issues, particularly those that affect the future of a country.

Keywords: Gender, equity, millennium development goals, post-2015 development agenda.

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Authors: Wan-Yu Liu

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To respond to the Kyoto Protocol, the policy of Payment for Environmental Service (PES), which was entitled “Plain Landscape Afforestation Program (PLAP)", was certified by Executive Yuan in Taiwan on 31 August 2001 and has been implementing for six years since 1 January 2002. Although the PLAP has received a lot of positive comments, there are still many difficulties during the process of implementation, such as insufficient technology for afforestation, private landowners- low interests in participating in PLAP, insufficient subsidies, and so on, which are potential threats that hinder the PLAP from moving forward in future. In this paper, selecting Ping-Tung County in Taiwan as a sample region and targeting those private landowners with and without intention to participate in the PLAP, respectively, we conduct an empirical analysis based on the Logit model to investigate the factors that determine whether those private landowners join the PLAP, so as to realize the incentive effects of the PLAP upon the personal decision on afforestation. The possible factors that might determine private landowner-s participation in the PLAP include landowner-s characteristics, cropland characteristics, as well as policy factors. Among them, the policy factors include afforestation subsidy amount (+), duration of afforestation subsidy (+), the rules on adjoining and adjacent areas (+), and so on, which do not reach the remarkable level in statistics though, but the directions of variable signs are consistent with the intuition behind the policy. As for the landowners- characteristics, each of age (+), education level (–), and annual household income (+) variables reaches 10% of the remarkable level in statistics; as for the cropland characteristics, each of cropland area (+), cropland price (–), and the number of cropland parcels (–) reaches 1% of the remarkable level in statistics. In light of the above, the cropland characteristics are the dominate factor that determines the probability of landowner-s participation in the PLAP. In the Logit model established by this paper, the probability of correctly estimating nonparticipants is 98%, the probability of correctly estimating the participants is 71.8%, and the probability for the overall estimation is 95%. In addition, Hosmer-Lemeshow test and omnibus test also revealed that the Logit model in this paper may provide fine goodness of fit and good predictive power in forecasting private landowners- participation in this program. The empirical result of this paper expects to help the implementation of the afforestation programs in Taiwan.

Keywords: Forestry policy, logit, afforestation subsidy, afforestation policy.

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Authors: Sagir M. Yusuf, Chris Baber

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In this paper, we describe how to achieve knowledge understanding and prediction (Situation Awareness (SA)) for multiple-agents conducting searching activity using Bayesian inferential reasoning and learning. Bayesian Belief Network was used to monitor agents' knowledge about their environment, and cases are recorded for the network training using expectation-maximisation or gradient descent algorithm. The well trained network will be used for decision making and environmental situation prediction. Forest fire searching by multiple UAVs was the use case. UAVs are tasked to explore a forest and find a fire for urgent actions by the fire wardens. The paper focused on two problems: (i) effective agents’ path planning strategy and (ii) knowledge understanding and prediction (SA). The path planning problem by inspiring animal mode of foraging using Lévy distribution augmented with Bayesian reasoning was fully described in this paper. Results proof that the Lévy flight strategy performs better than the previous fixed-pattern (e.g., parallel sweeps) approaches in terms of energy and time utilisation. We also introduced a waypoint assessment strategy called k-previous waypoints assessment. It improves the performance of the ordinary levy flight by saving agent’s resources and mission time through redundant search avoidance. The agents (UAVs) are to report their mission knowledge at the central server for interpretation and prediction purposes. Bayesian reasoning and learning were used for the SA and results proof effectiveness in different environments scenario in terms of prediction and effective knowledge representation. The prediction accuracy was measured using learning error rate, logarithm loss, and Brier score and the result proves that little agents mission that can be used for prediction within the same or different environment. Finally, we described a situation-based knowledge visualization and prediction technique for heterogeneous multi-UAV mission. While this paper proves linkage of Bayesian reasoning and learning with SA and effective searching strategy, future works is focusing on simplifying the architecture.

Keywords: Lèvy flight, situation awareness, multi-agent system, multi-robot coordination, autonomous system, swarm intelligence.

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