Search results for: Prediction methods

Authors: Mikhail Gritskevich, Sebastian Hohenstein

Abstract:

The paper presents the results of a detailed assessment of several modern Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) turbulence models for prediction of C3X vane film cooling at various injection regimes. Three models are considered, namely the Shear Stress Transport (SST) model, the modification of the SST model accounting for the streamlines curvature (SST-CC), and the Explicit Algebraic Reynolds Stress Model (EARSM). It is shown that all the considered models face with a problem in prediction of the adiabatic effectiveness in the vicinity of the cooling holes; however, accounting for the Reynolds stress anisotropy within the EARSM model noticeably increases the solution accuracy. On the other hand, further downstream all the models provide a reasonable agreement with the experimental data for the adiabatic effectiveness and among the considered models the most accurate results are obtained with the use EARMS.

Keywords: Discrete holes film cooling, Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes, Reynolds stress tensor anisotropy, turbulent heat transfer.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1122

Authors: G. R. Rameshkumar, B. V. A Rao, K. P. Ramachandran

Abstract:

Misalignment and unbalance are the major concerns in rotating machinery. When the power supply to any rotating system is cutoff, the system begins to lose the momentum gained during sustained operation and finally comes to rest. The exact time period from when the power is cutoff until the rotor comes to rest is called Coast Down Time. The CDTs for different shaft cutoff speeds were recorded at various misalignment and unbalance conditions. The CDT reduction percentages were calculated for each fault and there is a specific correlation between the CDT reduction percentage and the severity of the fault. In this paper, radial basis network, a new generation of artificial neural networks, has been successfully incorporated for the prediction of CDT for misalignment and unbalance conditions. Radial basis network has been found to be successful in the prediction of CDT for mechanical faults in rotating machinery.

Keywords: Coast Down Time, Misalignment, Unbalance, Artificial Neural Networks, Radial Basis Network.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2988

Authors: Dursun Aydin

Abstract:

This paper study about using of nonparametric models for Gross National Product data in Turkey and Stanford heart transplant data. It is discussed two nonparametric techniques called smoothing spline and kernel regression. The main goal is to compare the techniques used for prediction of the nonparametric regression models. According to the results of numerical studies, it is concluded that smoothing spline regression estimators are better than those of the kernel regression.

Keywords: Kernel regression, Nonparametric models, Prediction, Smoothing spline.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 3101

Authors: A. Brahma

Abstract:

Drying is a phenomenon that accompanies the hardening of hydraulic materials. This study is concerned the modelling of drying shrinkage of the hydraulic materials and the prediction of the rate of spontaneous deformations of hydraulic materials during hardening. The model developed takes consideration of the main factors affecting drying shrinkage. There was agreement between drying shrinkage predicted by the developed model and experimental results. In last we show that developed model describe the evolution of the drying shrinkage of high performances concretes correctly.

Keywords: Drying, hydraulic concretes, shrinkage, modeling, prediction.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1778

Authors: Kefaya Qaddoum

Abstract:

Most of greenhouse growers desire a determined amount of yields in order to accurately meet market requirements. The purpose of this paper is to model a simple but often satisfactory supervised classification method. The original naive Bayes have a serious weakness, which is producing redundant predictors. In this paper, utilized regularization technique was used to obtain a computationally efficient classifier based on naive Bayes. The suggested construction, utilized L1-penalty, is capable of clearing redundant predictors, where a modification of the LARS algorithm is devised to solve this problem, making this method applicable to a wide range of data. In the experimental section, a study conducted to examine the effect of redundant and irrelevant predictors, and test the method on WSG data set for tomato yields, where there are many more predictors than data, and the urge need to predict weekly yield is the goal of this approach. Finally, the modified approach is compared with several naive Bayes variants and other classification algorithms (SVM and kNN), and is shown to be fairly good.

Keywords: Tomato yields prediction, naive Bayes, redundancy

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 5109

Authors: Su Jin Kim, Ji Yeon Cho, Bong Gyou Lee

Abstract:

The purpose of this study is to suggest energy efficient routing for ad hoc networks which are composed of nodes with limited energy. There are diverse problems including limitation of energy supply of node, and the node energy management problem has been presented. And a number of protocols have been proposed for energy conservation and energy efficiency. In this study, the critical point of the EA-MPDSR, that is the type of energy efficient routing using only two paths, is improved and developed. The proposed TP-MESR uses multi-path routing technique and traffic prediction function to increase number of path more than 2. It also verifies its efficiency compared to EA-MPDSR using network simulator (NS-2). Also, To give a academic value and explain protocol systematically, research guidelines which the Hevner(2004) suggests are applied. This proposed TP-MESR solved the existing multi-path routing problem related to overhead, radio interference, packet reassembly and it confirmed its contribution to effective use of energy in ad hoc networks.

Keywords: Ad hoc, energy-aware, multi-path, routing protocol, traffic prediction.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1558

Authors: Sagir M. Yusuf, Chris Baber

Abstract:

In this paper, we describe how Bayesian inferential reasoning will contributes in obtaining a well-satisfied prediction for Distributed Constraint Optimization Problems (DCOPs) with uncertainties. We also demonstrate how DCOPs could be merged to multi-agent knowledge understand and prediction (i.e. Situation Awareness). The DCOPs functions were merged with Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) in the form of situation, awareness, and utility nodes. We describe how the uncertainties can be represented to the BBN and make an effective prediction using the expectation-maximization algorithm or conjugate gradient descent algorithm. The idea of variable prediction using Bayesian inference may reduce the number of variables in agents’ sampling domain and also allow missing variables estimations. Experiment results proved that the BBN perform compelling predictions with samples containing uncertainties than the perfect samples. That is, Bayesian inference can help in handling uncertainties and dynamism of DCOPs, which is the current issue in the DCOPs community. We show how Bayesian inference could be formalized with Distributed Situation Awareness (DSA) using uncertain and missing agents’ data. The whole framework was tested on multi-UAV mission for forest fire searching. Future work focuses on augmenting existing architecture to deal with dynamic DCOPs algorithms and multi-agent information merging.

Keywords: DCOP, multi-agent reasoning, Bayesian reasoning, swarm intelligence.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1010

Authors: Paratibha Aggarwal, Yogesh Aggarwal

Abstract:

The paper presents the potential of fuzzy logic (FL-I) and neural network techniques (ANN-I) for predicting the compressive strength, for SCC mixtures. Six input parameters that is contents of cement, sand, coarse aggregate, fly ash, superplasticizer percentage and water-to-binder ratio and an output parameter i.e. 28- day compressive strength for ANN-I and FL-I are used for modeling. The fuzzy logic model showed better performance than neural network model.

Keywords: Self compacting concrete, compressive strength, prediction, neural network, Fuzzy logic.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2458

Authors: Sun-Young Jang, Sung-Ah Kim, Dongyoun Shin

Abstract:

The Intelligent transportation system is essential to build smarter cities. Machine learning based transportation prediction could be highly promising approach by delivering invisible aspect visible. In this context, this research aims to make a prototype model that predicts transportation network by using big data and machine learning technology. In detail, among urban transportation systems this research chooses bus system.  The research problem that existing headway model cannot response dynamic transportation conditions. Thus, bus delay problem is often occurred. To overcome this problem, a prediction model is presented to fine patterns of bus delay by using a machine learning implementing the following data sets; traffics, weathers, and bus statues. This research presents a flexible headway model to predict bus delay and analyze the result. The prototyping model is composed by real-time data of buses. The data are gathered through public data portals and real time Application Program Interface (API) by the government. These data are fundamental resources to organize interval pattern models of bus operations as traffic environment factors (road speeds, station conditions, weathers, and bus information of operating in real-time). The prototyping model is designed by the machine learning tool (RapidMiner Studio) and conducted tests for bus delays prediction. This research presents experiments to increase prediction accuracy for bus headway by analyzing the urban big data. The big data analysis is important to predict the future and to find correlations by processing huge amount of data. Therefore, based on the analysis method, this research represents an effective use of the machine learning and urban big data to understand urban dynamics.

Keywords: Big data, bus headway prediction, machine learning, public transportation.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1562

Authors: Piyush Samant, Ravinder Agarwal

Abstract:

Complementary and Alternative Medicine (CAM) techniques are quite popular and effective for chronic diseases. Iridology is more than 150 years old CAM technique which analyzes the patterns, tissue weakness, color, shape, structure, etc. for disease diagnosis. The objective of this paper is to validate the use of iridology for the diagnosis of the diabetes. The suggested model was applied in a systemic disease with ocular effects. 200 subject data of 100 each diabetic and non-diabetic were evaluated. Complete procedure was kept very simple and free from the involvement of any iridologist. From the normalized iris, the region of interest was cropped. All 63 features were extracted using statistical, texture analysis, and two-dimensional discrete wavelet transformation. A comparison of accuracies of six different classifiers has been presented. The result shows 89.66% accuracy by the random forest classifier.

Keywords: Complementary and alternative medicine, Iridology, iris, feature extraction, classification, disease prediction.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1858

Authors: D. Prangchumpol

Abstract:

This paper is a description approach to predict incoming and outgoing data rate in network system by using association rule discover, which is one of the data mining techniques. Information of incoming and outgoing data in each times and network bandwidth are network performance parameters, which needed to solve in the traffic problem. Since congestion and data loss are important network problems. The result of this technique can predicted future network traffic. In addition, this research is useful for network routing selection and network performance improvement.

Keywords: Traffic prediction, association rule, data mining.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 3669

Authors: Dhananjay C. Joshi, Jung-Hsin Lin

Abstract:

Protein-protein interactions (PPI) play a crucial role in many biological processes such as cell signalling, transcription, translation, replication, signal transduction, and drug targeting, etc. Structural information about protein-protein interaction is essential for understanding the molecular mechanisms of these processes. Structures of protein-protein complexes are still difficult to obtain by biophysical methods such as NMR and X-ray crystallography, and therefore protein-protein docking computation is considered an important approach for understanding protein-protein interactions. However, reliable prediction of the protein-protein complexes is still under way. In the past decades, several grid-based docking algorithms based on the Katchalski-Katzir scoring scheme were developed, e.g., FTDock, ZDOCK, HADDOCK, RosettaDock, HEX, etc. However, the success rate of protein-protein docking prediction is still far from ideal. In this work, we first propose a more practical measure for evaluating the success of protein-protein docking predictions,the rate of first success (RFS), which is similar to the concept of mean first passage time (MFPT). Accordingly, we have assessed the ZDOCK bound and unbound benchmarks 2.0 and 3.0. We also createda new benchmark set for protein-protein docking predictions, in which the complexes have experimentally determined binding affinity data. We performed free energy calculation based on the solution of non-linear Poisson-Boltzmann equation (nlPBE) to improve the binding mode prediction. We used the well-studied thebarnase-barstarsystem to validate the parameters for free energy calculations. Besides,thenlPBE-based free energy calculations were conducted for the badly predicted cases by ZDOCK and ZRANK. We found that direct molecular mechanics energetics cannot be used to discriminate the native binding pose from the decoys.Our results indicate that nlPBE-based calculations appeared to be one of the promising approaches for improving the success rate of binding pose predictions.

Keywords: protein-protein docking, protein-protein interaction, molecular mechanics energetics, Poisson-Boltzmann calculations

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1805

Authors: Cristian Păuna

Abstract:

After the widespread release of electronic trading, automated trading systems have become a significant part of the business intelligence system of any modern financial investment company. An important part of the trades is made completely automatically today by computers using mathematical algorithms. The trading decisions are taken almost instantly by logical models and the orders are sent by low-latency automatic systems. This paper will present a real-time price prediction methodology designed especially for algorithmic trading. Based on the price cyclicality function, the methodology revealed will generate price cyclicality bands to predict the optimal levels for the entries and exits. In order to automate the trading decisions, the cyclicality bands will generate automated trading signals. We have found that the model can be used with good results to predict the changes in market behavior. Using these predictions, the model can automatically adapt the trading signals in real-time to maximize the trading results. The paper will reveal the methodology to optimize and implement this model in automated trading systems. After tests, it is proved that this methodology can be applied with good efficiency in different timeframes. Real trading results will be also displayed and analyzed in order to qualify the methodology and to compare it with other models. As a conclusion, it was found that the price prediction model using the price cyclicality function is a reliable trading methodology for algorithmic trading in the financial market.

Keywords: Algorithmic trading, automated trading systems, financial markets, high-frequency trading, price prediction.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1371

Authors: Tang Wei, Yang Xiaofeng, Gui Yewei, Du Yanxia

Abstract:

Complex lifting entry was selected for precise landing performance during the Mars Science Laboratory entry. This study aims to develop the three-dimensional numerical method for precise computation and the surface panel method for rapid engineering prediction. Detailed flow field analysis for Mars exploration mission was performed by carrying on a series of fully three-dimensional Navier-Stokes computations. The static aerodynamic performance was then discussed, including the surface pressure, lift and drag coefficient, lift-to-drag ratio with the numerical and engineering method. Computation results shown that the shock layer is thin because of lower effective specific heat ratio, and that calculated results from both methods agree well with each other, and is consistent with the reference data. Aerodynamic performance analysis shows that CG location determines trim characteristics and pitch stability, and certain radially and axially shift of the CG location can alter the capsule lifting entry performance, which is of vital significance for the aerodynamic configuration design and inner instrument layout of the Mars entry capsule.

Keywords: Mars entry capsule, static aerodynamics, computational fluid dynamics, hypersonic.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 3034

Authors: Wenbin Zhang, Hantian Wu, Jian Tang

Abstract:

An artificial neural network is a mathematical model inspired by biological neural networks. There are several kinds of neural networks and they are widely used in many areas, such as: prediction, detection, and classification. Meanwhile, in day to day life, people always have to make many difficult decisions. For example, the coach of a soccer club has to decide which offensive player to be selected to play in a certain game. This work describes a novel Neural Network using a combination of the General Regression Neural Network and the Probabilistic Neural Networks to help a soccer coach make an informed decision.

Keywords: General Regression Neural Network, Probabilistic Neural Networks, Neural function.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 3763

Authors: Janak Raj Sharma, Rajni Sharma

Abstract:

Based on Traub-s methods for solving nonlinear equation f(x) = 0, we develop two families of third-order methods for solving system of nonlinear equations F(x) = 0. The families include well-known existing methods as special cases. The stability is corroborated by numerical results. Comparison with well-known methods shows that the present methods are robust. These higher order methods may be very useful in the numerical applications requiring high precision in their computations because these methods yield a clear reduction in number of iterations.

Keywords: Nonlinear equations and systems, Newton's method, fixed point iteration, order of convergence.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2207

Authors: Abdel Hamid Ajbar, Emad Ali

Abstract:

Saudi Arabia is an arid country which depends on costly desalination plants to satisfy the growing residential water demand. Prediction of water demand is usually a challenging task because the forecast model should consider variations in economic progress, climate conditions and population growth. The task is further complicated knowing that Mecca city is visited regularly by large numbers during specific months in the year due to religious occasions. In this paper, a neural networks model is proposed to handle the prediction of the monthly and yearly water demand for Mecca city, Saudi Arabia. The proposed model will be developed based on historic records of water production and estimated visitors- distribution. The driving variables for the model include annuallyvarying variables such as household income, household density, and city population, and monthly-varying variables such as expected number of visitors each month and maximum monthly temperature.

Keywords: Water demand forecast; Neural Networks model; water resources management; Saudi Arabia.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1813

Authors: L. Mirtskhulava, M. Khunjgurua, N. Lomineishvili, K. Bakuria

Abstract:

Software reliability prediction gives a great opportunity to measure the software failure rate at any point throughout system test. A software reliability prediction model provides with the technique for improving reliability. Software reliability is very important factor for estimating overall system reliability, which depends on the individual component reliabilities. It differs from hardware reliability in that it reflects the design perfection. Main reason of software reliability problems is high complexity of software. Various approaches can be used to improve the reliability of software. We focus on software reliability model in this article, assuming that there is a time redundancy, the value of which (the number of repeated transmission of basic blocks) can be an optimization parameter. We consider given mathematical model in the assumption that in the system may occur not only irreversible failures, but also a failure that can be taken as self-repairing failures that significantly affect the reliability and accuracy of information transfer. Main task of the given paper is to find a time distribution function (DF) of instructions sequence transmission, which consists of random number of basic blocks. We consider the system software unreliable; the time between adjacent failures has exponential distribution.

Keywords: Exponential distribution, conditional mean time to failure, distribution function, mathematical model, software reliability.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1680

Authors: Hasan Keshavarzian, Tayebeh Nesari

Abstract:

Bolted rail joint is one of the most vulnerable areas in railway track. A comprehensive approach was developed for studying the reliability of fatigue crack initiation of railroad bolt hole under random axle loads and random material properties. The operation condition was also considered as stochastic variables. In order to obtain the comprehensive probability model of fatigue crack initiation life prediction in railroad bolt hole, we used FEM, response surface method (RSM), and reliability analysis. Combined energy-density based and critical plane based fatigue concept is used for the fatigue crack prediction. The dynamic loads were calculated according to the axle load, speed, and track properties. The results show that axle load is most sensitive parameter compared to Poisson’s ratio in fatigue crack initiation life. Also, the reliability index decreases slowly due to high cycle fatigue regime in this area.

Keywords: Rail-wheel tribology, rolling contact mechanic, finite element modeling, reliability analysis.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1109

Authors: Masoud Sadeghian, Alireza Fatehi

Abstract:

In this paper, we use nonlinear system identification method to predict and detect process fault of a cement rotary kiln. After selecting proper inputs and output, an input-output model is identified for the plant. To identify the various operation points in the kiln, Locally Linear Neuro-Fuzzy (LLNF) model is used. This model is trained by LOLIMOT algorithm which is an incremental treestructure algorithm. Then, by using this method, we obtained 3 distinct models for the normal and faulty situations in the kiln. One of the models is for normal condition of the kiln with 15 minutes prediction horizon. The other two models are for the two faulty situations in the kiln with 7 minutes prediction horizon are presented. At the end, we detect these faults in validation data. The data collected from White Saveh Cement Company is used for in this study.

Keywords: Cement Rotary Kiln, Fault Detection, Delay Estimation Method, Locally Linear Neuro Fuzzy Model, LOLIMOT.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1673

Authors: Sun-Young Jang, Sung-Ah Kim, Dongyoun Shin

Abstract:

Current real-estate value estimation, difficult for laymen, usually is performed by specialists. This paper presents an automated estimation process based on big data and machine-learning technology that calculates influences of building conditions on real-estate price measurement. The present study analyzed actual building sales sample data for Nonhyeon-dong, Gangnam-gu, Seoul, Korea, measuring the major influencing factors among the various building conditions. Further to that analysis, a prediction model was established and applied using RapidMiner Studio, a graphical user interface (GUI)-based tool for derivation of machine-learning prototypes. The prediction model is formulated by reference to previous examples. When new examples are applied, it analyses and predicts accordingly. The analysis process discerns the crucial factors effecting price increases by calculation of weighted values. The model was verified, and its accuracy determined, by comparing its predicted values with actual price increases.

Keywords: Big data, building-value analysis, machine learning, price prediction.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1164

Authors: Hamed Afrasiab, Saeed Khodaygan

Abstract:

Prediction of machining process capability in the design stage plays a key role to reach the precision design and manufacturing of mechanical products. Inaccuracies in machining process lead to errors in position and orientation of machined features on the part, and strongly affect the process capability in the final quality of the product. In this paper, an efficient systematic approach is given to investigate the machining errors to predict the manufacturing errors of the parts and capability prediction of corresponding machining processes. A mathematical formulation of fixture locators modeling is presented to establish the relationship between the part errors and the related sources. Based on this method, the final machining errors of the part can be accurately estimated by relating them to the combined dimensional and geometric tolerances of the workpiece – fixture system. This method is developed for uncertainty analysis based on the Worst Case and statistical approaches. The application of the presented method is illustrated through presenting an example and the computational results are compared with the Monte Carlo simulation results.

Keywords: Process capability, machining error, dimensional and geometrical tolerances, uncertainty analysis.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1234

Authors: I. M. Abd Rahim, H. Abdul Rahim, R. Ghazali

Abstract:

There is numerous non-invasive blood glucose measurement technique developed by researchers, and near infrared (NIR) is the potential technique nowadays. However, there are some disagreements on the optimal wavelength range that is suitable to be used as the reference of the glucose substance in the blood. This paper focuses on the experimental data collection technique and also the analysis method used to analyze the data gained from the experiment. The selection of suitable linear and non-linear model structure is essential in prediction system, as the system developed need to be conceivably accurate.

Keywords: Invasive, linear, near-infrared (Nir), non-invasive, non-linear, prediction system.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 857

Authors: Darby Tien-Hao Chang, Guan-Yu Shiu, You-Jie Sun

Abstract:

Various cis-regulatory module (CRM) predictors have been proposed in the last decade. Several well-established CRM predictors adopted different categories of prediction strategies, including window clustering, probabilistic modeling and phylogenetic footprinting. Appropriate integration of them has a potential to achieve high quality CRM prediction. This study analyzed four existing CRM predictors (ClusterBuster, MSCAN, CisModule and MultiModule) to seek a predictor combination that delivers a higher accuracy than individual CRM predictors. 465 CRMs across 140 Drosophila melanogaster genes from the RED fly database were used to evaluate the integrated CRM predictor proposed in this study. The results show that four predictor combinations achieved superior performance than the best individual CRM predictor.

Keywords: Cis-regulatory module, transcription factor binding site.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1650

Authors: Fajaruddin Mustakim, Motohiro Fujita

Abstract:

This paper present the study carried out of accident analysis, black spot study and to develop accident predictive models based on the data collected at rural roadway, Federal Route 50 (F050) Malaysia. The road accident trends and black spot ranking were established on the F050. The development of the accident prediction model will concentrate in Parit Raja area from KM 19 to KM 23. Multiple non-linear regression method was used to relate the discrete accident data with the road and traffic flow explanatory variable. The dependent variable was modeled as the number of crashes namely accident point weighting, however accident point weighting have rarely been account in the road accident prediction Models. The result show that, the existing number of major access points, without traffic light, rise in speed, increasing number of Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADT), growing number of motorcycle and motorcar and reducing the time gap are the potential contributors of increment accident rates on multiple rural roadway.

Keywords: Accident Trends, Black Spot Study, Accident Prediction Model

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 3283

Authors: S. Balaji, E. Golden Julie, Y. Harold Robinson

Abstract:

The context aware adaptive routing protocol is presented for unicast communication in intermittently connected mobile ad hoc networks (MANETs). The selection of the node is done by the Kalman filter prediction theory and it also makes use of utility functions. The context aware adaptive routing is defined by spray and wait technique, but the time consumption in delivering the message is too high and also the resource wastage is more. In this paper, we describe the spray and focus routing scheme for avoiding the existing problems.

Keywords: Context aware adaptive routing, Kalman filter prediction, spray and wait, spray and focus, intermittent networks.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 913

Authors: Farhad Asadi, S. Hossein Sadati

Abstract:

This paper presents a prediction performance of feedforward Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) and Echo State Networks (ESN) trained with extended Kalman filter. Feedforward neural networks and ESN are powerful neural networks which can track and predict nonlinear signals. However, their tracking performance depends on the specific signals or data sets, having the risk of instability accompanied by large error. In this study we explore this process by applying different network size and leaking rate for prediction of nonlinear or chaotic signals in MLP neural networks. Major problems of ESN training such as the problem of initialization of the network and improvement in the prediction performance are tackled. The influence of coefficient of activation function in the hidden layer and other key parameters are investigated by simulation results. Extended Kalman filter is employed in order to improve the sequential and regulation learning rate of the feedforward neural networks. This training approach has vital features in the training of the network when signals have chaotic or non-stationary sequential pattern. Minimization of the variance in each step of the computation and hence smoothing of tracking were obtained by examining the results, indicating satisfactory tracking characteristics for certain conditions. In addition, simulation results confirmed satisfactory performance of both of the two neural networks with modified parameterization in tracking of the nonlinear signals.

Keywords: Feedforward neural networks, nonlinear signal prediction, echo state neural networks approach, leaking rates, capacity of neural networks.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 758

Authors: S. Chokri

Abstract:

Load modeling is one of the central functions in power systems operations. Electricity cannot be stored, which means that for electric utility, the estimate of the future demand is necessary in managing the production and purchasing in an economically reasonable way. A majority of the recently reported approaches are based on neural network. The attraction of the methods lies in the assumption that neural networks are able to learn properties of the load. However, the development of the methods is not finished, and the lack of comparative results on different model variations is a problem. This paper presents a new approach in order to predict the Tunisia daily peak load. The proposed method employs a computational intelligence scheme based on the Fuzzy neural network (FNN) and support vector regression (SVR). Experimental results obtained indicate that our proposed FNN-SVR technique gives significantly good prediction accuracy compared to some classical techniques.

Keywords: Neural network, Load Forecasting, Fuzzy inference, Machine learning, Fuzzy modeling and rule extraction, Support Vector Regression.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2198

Authors: E. Nemati Lay, M. Peymani, E. Sanjari

Abstract:

Prediction of viscosity of natural gas is an important parameter in the energy industries such as natural gas storage and transportation. In this study viscosity of different compositions of natural gas is modeled by using an artificial neural network (ANN) based on back-propagation method. A reliable database including more than 3841 experimental data of viscosity for testing and training of ANN is used. The designed neural network can predict the natural gas viscosity using pseudo-reduced pressure and pseudo-reduced temperature with AARD% of 0.221. The accuracy of designed ANN has been compared to other published empirical models. The comparison indicates that the proposed method can provide accurate results.

Keywords: Artificial neural network, Empirical correlation, Natural gas, Viscosity

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 3245

Authors: Raquel M. de Sousa, Sofiane Labidi, Allan Kardec D. Barros, Alex O. Barradas Filho, Aldalea L. B. Marques

Abstract:

Several parameters are established in order to measure biodiesel quality. One of them is the iodine value, which is an important parameter that measures the total unsaturation within a mixture of fatty acids. Limitation of unsaturated fatty acids is necessary since warming of higher quantity of these ones ends in either formation of deposits inside the motor or damage of lubricant. Determination of iodine value by official procedure tends to be very laborious, with high costs and toxicity of the reagents, this study uses artificial neural network (ANN) in order to predict the iodine value property as an alternative to these problems. The methodology of development of networks used 13 esters of fatty acids in the input with convergence algorithms of back propagation of back propagation type were optimized in order to get an architecture of prediction of iodine value. This study allowed us to demonstrate the neural networks’ ability to learn the correlation between biodiesel quality properties, in this caseiodine value, and the molecular structures that make it up. The model developed in the study reached a correlation coefficient (R) of 0.99 for both network validation and network simulation, with Levenberg-Maquardt algorithm.

Keywords: Artificial Neural Networks, Biodiesel, Iodine Value, Prediction.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2380