Search results for: Representation Learning.

Authors: H. AbdelRahman, S. Rostom, Y. Lotfy, S. Salah Eldeen, R. Yassein, N. Awny

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People are growing more concerned with their appearance in today's society. But they are terrified of what they will look like after a plastic surgery. People's mental health suffers when they have accidents, burns, or genetic issues that cause them to cleave certain body parts, which makes them feel uncomfortable and unappreciated. The method provides an innovative deep learning-based technique for image inpainting that analyzes different picture structures and fixes damaged images. This study proposes a model based on the Stable Diffusion Inpainting method for in-painting medical images. One significant advancement made possible by deep neural networks is image inpainting, which is the process of reconstructing damaged and missing portions of an image. The patient can see the outcome more easily since the system uses the user's input of an image to identify a problem. It then modifies the image and outputs a fixed image.

Keywords: Generative Adversarial Network, GAN, Large Mask Inpainting, LAMA, Stable Diffusion Inpainting.

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Authors: Brigitte Rafael, Stefan M. Oertl

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Music segmentation is a key issue in music information retrieval (MIR) as it provides an insight into the internal structure of a composition. Structural information about a composition can improve several tasks related to MIR such as searching and browsing large music collections, visualizing musical structure, lyric alignment, and music summarization. The authors of this paper present the MTSSM framework, a twolayer framework for the multi-track segmentation of symbolic music. The strength of this framework lies in the combination of existing methods for local track segmentation and the application of global structure information spanning via multiple tracks. The first layer of the MTSSM uses various string matching techniques to detect the best candidate segmentations for each track of a multi-track composition independently. The second layer combines all single track results and determines the best segmentation for each track in respect to the global structure of the composition.

Keywords: Pattern Recognition, Music Information Retrieval, Machine Learning.

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Authors: Tarek Aboueldahab

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In this paper, we propose a new hybrid learning model for stock market indices prediction by adding a passive congregation term to the standard hybrid model comprising Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) with Genetic Algorithm (GA) operators in training Neural Networks (NN). This new passive congregation term is based on the cooperation between different particles in determining new positions rather than depending on the particles selfish thinking without considering other particles positions, thus it enables PSO to perform both the local and global search instead of only doing the local search. Experiment study carried out on the most famous European stock market indices in both long term and short term prediction shows significantly the influence of the passive congregation term in improving the prediction accuracy compared to standard hybrid model.

Keywords: Global Search, Hybrid Model, Passive Congregation, Stock Market Prediction.

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Authors: Hussain A. Alkharusi, Said S. Aldhafri, Hilal Z. Alnabhani, Muna Alkalbani

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Analyzing classroom assessments is one of the responsibilities of the teacher. It aims improving teacher’s instruction and assessment as well as student learning. The present study investigated factors that might explain variation in teachers’ practices regarding analysis of classroom assessments. The factors considered in the investigation included gender, in-service assessment training, teaching load, teaching experience, knowledge in assessment, attitude towards quantitative aspects of assessment, and self-perceived competence in analyzing assessments. Participants were 246 in-service teachers in Oman. Results of a stepwise multiple linear regression analysis revealed that self-perceived competence was the only significant factor explaining the variance in teachers’ analysis of assessments. Implications for research and practice are discussed.

 

Keywords: Analysis of assessment, Classroom assessment, In-service teachers, Self-competence.

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Authors: Vilma Zydziunaite, Vaida Jurgile

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The concept of teacher leadership refers to professional actors (employees and leaders) who can exercise control over or influence their work and its environment. The particular interest of the current research is gaining an understanding of how teachers experience leadership through educational interactions with students in a classroom. The aim of the research is to identify how teachers experience leadership in their everyday professional life through educational interactions with students in a classroom. Research questions are focused on essences of teacher leadership what are experienced by school teachers. The lifeworld research was performed in the study. 24 teachers participated in qualitative research. Data were collected via semi-structured interviews and analysed by using phenomenological analysis. Findings highlight aspects of teacher leadership through educational interactions with students in a classroom through the contribution to learning and teaching, authenticity, influence, empowerment, respect, equality, acknowledgement, resentment.

Keywords: Classroom, educational interaction, lifeworld research, teacher leadership.

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Authors: Rajoo Pandey

Abstract:

Most of the commonly used blind equalization algorithms are based on the minimization of a nonconvex and nonlinear cost function and a neural network gives smaller residual error as compared to a linear structure. The efficacy of complex valued feedforward neural networks for blind equalization of linear and nonlinear communication channels has been confirmed by many studies. In this paper we present two neural network models for blind equalization of time-varying channels, for M-ary QAM and PSK signals. The complex valued activation functions, suitable for these signal constellations in time-varying environment, are introduced and the learning algorithms based on the CMA cost function are derived. The improved performance of the proposed models is confirmed through computer simulations.

Keywords: Blind Equalization, Neural Networks, Constant Modulus Algorithm, Time-varying channels.

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Authors: Indradip Banerjee, Souvik Bhattacharyya, Gautam Sanyal

Abstract:

‘Steganalysis’ is one of the challenging and attractive interests for the researchers with the development of information hiding techniques. It is the procedure to detect the hidden information from the stego created by known steganographic algorithm. In this paper, a novel feature based image steganalysis technique is proposed. Various statistical moments have been used along with some similarity metric. The proposed steganalysis technique has been designed based on transformation in four wavelet domains, which include Haar, Daubechies, Symlets and Biorthogonal. Each domain is being subjected to various classifiers, namely K-nearest-neighbor, K* Classifier, Locally weighted learning, Naive Bayes classifier, Neural networks, Decision trees and Support vector machines. The experiments are performed on a large set of pictures which are available freely in image database. The system also predicts the different message length definitions.

Keywords: Steganalysis, Moments, Wavelet Domain, KNN, K*, LWL, Naive Bayes Classifier, Neural networks, Decision trees, SVM.

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Authors: Andre A. Keller

Abstract:

The optimal control is one of the possible controllers for a dynamic system, having a linear quadratic regulator and using the Pontryagin-s principle or the dynamic programming method . Stochastic disturbances may affect the coefficients (multiplicative disturbances) or the equations (additive disturbances), provided that the shocks are not too great . Nevertheless, this approach encounters difficulties when uncertainties are very important or when the probability calculus is of no help with very imprecise data. The fuzzy logic contributes to a pragmatic solution of such a problem since it operates on fuzzy numbers. A fuzzy controller acts as an artificial decision maker that operates in a closed-loop system in real time. This contribution seeks to explore the tracking problem and control of dynamic macroeconomic models using a fuzzy learning algorithm. A two inputs - single output (TISO) fuzzy model is applied to the linear fluctuation model of Phillips and to the nonlinear growth model of Goodwin.

Keywords: fuzzy control, macroeconomic model, multiplier - accelerator, nonlinear accelerator, stabilization policy.

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Authors: Takahiro Nishigaki, Katsumi Nitta, Takashi Onoda

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In this paper, we present a method of applying Independent Topic Analysis (ITA) to increasing the number of document data. The number of document data has been increasing since the spread of the Internet. ITA was presented as one method to analyze the document data. ITA is a method for extracting the independent topics from the document data by using the Independent Component Analysis (ICA). ICA is a technique in the signal processing; however, it is difficult to apply the ITA to increasing number of document data. Because ITA must use the all document data so temporal and spatial cost is very high. Therefore, we present Incremental ITA which extracts the independent topics from increasing number of document data. Incremental ITA is a method of updating the independent topics when the document data is added after extracted the independent topics from a just previous the data. In addition, Incremental ITA updates the independent topics when the document data is added. And we show the result applied Incremental ITA to benchmark datasets.

Keywords: Text mining, topic extraction, independent, incremental, independent component analysis.

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Authors: Evisa Mitrou, Nicholas Tsitsianis, Supriya Shinde

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In the age of digitisation and globalisation, businesses have shifted online and are investing in big data analytics (BDA) to respond to changing market conditions and sustain their performance. Our study shifts the focus from the adoption of BDA to the impact of BDA on financial performance. We explore the financial performance of both BDA-vendors (business-to-business) and BDA-clients (business-to-customer). We distinguish between the five BDA-technologies (big-data-as-a-service (BDaaS), descriptive, diagnostic, predictive, and prescriptive analytics) and discuss them individually. Further, we use four perspectives (internal business process, learning and growth, customer, and finance) and discuss the significance of how each of the five BDA-technologies affect the performance measures of these four perspectives. We also present the analysis of employee engagement, average turnover, average net income, and average net assets for BDA-clients and BDA-vendors. Our study also explores the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on business continuity for both BDA-vendors and BDA-clients.

Keywords: BDA-clients, BDA-vendors, big data analytics, financial performance.

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Authors: Homayoon Zarshenas, Mahdi Bamdad, Hadi Grailu, Akbar A. Shakoori

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In this study we focus on improvement performance of a cue based Motor Imagery Brain Computer Interface (BCI). For this purpose, data fusion approach is used on results of different classifiers to make the best decision. At first step Distinction Sensitive Learning Vector Quantization method is used as a feature selection method to determine most informative frequencies in recorded signals and its performance is evaluated by frequency search method. Then informative features are extracted by packet wavelet transform. In next step 5 different types of classification methods are applied. The methodologies are tested on BCI Competition II dataset III, the best obtained accuracy is 85% and the best kappa value is 0.8. At final step ordered weighted averaging (OWA) method is used to provide a proper aggregation classifiers outputs. Using OWA enhanced system accuracy to 95% and kappa value to 0.9. Applying OWA just uses 50 milliseconds for performing calculation.

Keywords: BCI, EEG, Classifier, Fuzzy operator, OWA.

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Authors: Margarita Zavala, Julio Rolón, Gabriel Chavira, José González, Jorge Orozco, Roberto Pichardo

Abstract:

Adolescence is a neuralgic stage in the formation of every human being, generally at this stage is when the middle school level is studied. In 2006 in Mexico incorporated “mentoring" space to assist students in their integration and participation in life. In public middle schools, is sometimes difficult to be aware of situations that affect students because of the number of them and traditional records management. Whit this they lose the opportunity to provide timely support as a preventive way. In order to provide this support, it is required to know the students by detecting the relevant information that has greater impact on their learning process. This research is looking to check if it is possible to identify student’s relevant information to detect when it is at risk, and then to propose a model to manage in a proper way such information.

Keywords: Adolescence, mentoring, middle school students, mentoring system support.

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Authors: Mohammed Alkahtani, Ali Ahmad, Saber Darmoul, Shatha Samman, Ayoub Al-zabidi, Khaled Ba Matraf

Abstract:

Education systems are complex and involve interactions between humans (teachers and students); media based technologies, lectures, classrooms, etc. to provide educational services. The education system performance is characterized by how well students learn, which is measured using student grades on exams and quizzes, achievements on standardized tests, among others. Advances in portable communications technologies, such as mobile phones, tablets, and laptops, created a different type of classroom, where students seem to engage in more than just the intended learning activities. The performance of more than one task in parallel or in rapid transition is commonly known as multitasking. Several operations in educational systems are performed simultaneously, resulting in a multitasking education environment. This paper surveys existing research on multitasking in educational settings, summarizes literature findings, provides a synthesis of the impact of multitasking on performance, and identifies directions of future research.

Keywords: Education systems, GPA, multitasking, performance.

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Authors: Ena Bhattacharyya

Abstract:

The notion of communicative competence has been deemed fuzzy in communication studies. This fuzziness has led to tensions among engineers across tenures in interpreting what constitutes communicative competence. The study seeks to investigate novice and professional engineers- understanding of the said notion in terms of two main elements of communicative competence: linguistic and rhetorical competence. Novice engineers are final year engineering students, whilst professional engineers represent engineers who have at least 5 years working experience. Novice and professional engineers were interviewed to gauge their perceptions on linguistic and rhetorical features deemed necessary to enhance communicative competence for the profession. Both groups indicated awareness and differences on the importance of the sub-sets of communicative competence, namely, rhetorical explanatory competence, linguistic oral immediacy competence, technical competence and meta-cognitive competence. Such differences, a possible attribute of the learning theory, inadvertently indicate sublime differences in the way novice and professional engineers perceive communicative competence.

Keywords: Communicative competence, technical oral presentation, linguistic competence, rhetorical competence.

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Authors: Jindong Gu, Matthias Schubert, Volker Tresp

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In many outlier detection tasks, only training data belonging to one class, i.e., the positive class, is available. The task is then to predict a new data point as belonging either to the positive class or to the negative class, in which case the data point is considered an outlier. For this task, we propose a novel corrupted Generative Adversarial Network (CorGAN). In the adversarial process of training CorGAN, the Generator generates outlier samples for the negative class, and the Discriminator is trained to distinguish the positive training data from the generated negative data. The proposed framework is evaluated using an image dataset and a real-world network intrusion dataset. Our outlier-detection method achieves state-of-the-art performance on both tasks.

Keywords: Outlier detection, generative adversary networks, semi-supervised learning.

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Authors: M. Pellerone, S. G. Razza, L. Miano, A. Miccichè, M. Adamo

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The teacher’s attitude plays a decisive role in promoting the development of the non-native or disabled student and counteracting hypothetical negative attitudes and prejudice towards those who are “different”. The objective of the present research is to measure the relationship between teachers’ prejudices towards disabled and/or immigrant students as predictors of teaching-learning strategies. A cross-sectional study involved 200 Italian female teachers who completed an anamnestic questionnaire, the Assessment Teaching Scale, the Italian Modern and Classical Prejudices Scale towards people with intellectual disability (ID), and the Pettigrew and Meertens’ Blatant Subtle Prejudice Scale. Confirming research hypotheses, data underline the predictive role of prejudice on teaching strategies, and in particular on the socio-emotional and communicative-relational dimensions. Results underline that general training appears necessary, especially for younger generations of teachers.

Keywords: Disabled students, Immigrant students, instructional competence, prejudice, teachers.

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Authors: Widodo Budiharto, Michael Yoseph Ricky, Ro'fah Nur Rachmawati

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The rapid development of the BlackBerry games industry and its development goals were not just for entertainment, but also used for educational of students interactively. Unfortunately the development of adaptive educational games on BlackBerry in Indonesian language that interesting and entertaining for learning process is very limited. This paper shows the research of development of novel adaptive educational games for students who can adjust the difficulty level of games based on the ability of the user, so that it can motivate students to continue to play these games. We propose a method where these games can adjust the level of difficulty, based on the assessment of the results of previous problems using neural networks with three inputs in the form of percentage correct, the speed of answer and interest mode of games (animation / lessons) and 1 output. The experimental results are presented and show the adaptive games are running well on mobile devices based on BlackBerry platform

Keywords: Adaptive games, neural networks, mobile games, BlackBerry

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Authors: Fauzy M. Wan, Reem S.A. Baragash

Abstract:

This study examined the effects of two dynamic visualizations on 60 Malaysian primary school student-s performance (time on task), retention and transference. The independent variables in this study were the two dynamic visualizations, the video and the animated instructions. The dependent variables were the gain score of performance, retention and transference. The results showed that the students in the animation group significantly outperformed the students in the video group in retention. There were no significant differences in terms of gain scores in the performance and transference among the animation and the video groups, although the scores were slightly higher in the animation group compared to the video group. The conclusion of this study is that the animation visualization is superior compared to the video in the retention for a procedural task.

Keywords: Dynamic visualization, Procedural Task, Retention, Transference

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Authors: Denise Levy, Gian M. A. A. Sordi

Abstract:

This web based project focuses on continuing corporate education and improving workers' skills in Brazilian radioactive facilities throughout the country. The potential of Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs) shall contribute to improve the global communication in this very large country, where it is a strong challenge to ensure high quality professional information to as many people as possible. The main objective of this system is to provide Brazilian radioactive facilities a complete web-based repository - in Portuguese - for research, consultation and information, offering conditions for learning and improving professional and personal skills. UNIPRORAD is a web based system to offer unified programs and inter-related information about radiological protection programs. The content includes the best practices for radioactive facilities in order to meet both national standards and international recommendations published by different organizations over the past decades: International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP), International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and National Nuclear Energy Commission (CNEN). The website counts on concepts, definitions and theory about optimization and ionizing radiation monitoring procedures. Moreover, the content presents further discussions related to some national and international recommendations, such as potential exposure, which is currently one of the most important research fields in radiological protection. Only two publications of ICRP develop expressively the issue and there is still a lack of knowledge of fail probabilities, for there are still uncertainties to find effective paths to quantify probabilistically the occurrence of potential exposures and the probabilities to reach a certain level of dose. To respond to this challenge, this project discusses and introduces potential exposures in a more quantitative way than national and international recommendations. Articulating ICRP and AIEA valid recommendations and official reports, in addition to scientific papers published in major international congresses, the website discusses and suggests a number of effective actions towards safety which can be incorporated into labor practice. The WEB platform was created according to corporate public needs, taking into account the development of a robust but flexible system, which can be easily adapted to future demands. ICTs provide a vast array of new communication capabilities and allow to spread information to as many people as possible at low costs and high quality communication. This initiative shall provide opportunities for employees to increase professional skills, stimulating development in this large country where it is an enormous challenge to ensure effective and updated information to geographically distant facilities, minimizing costs and optimizing results.

Keywords: Distance learning, information and communication technology, nuclear science, radioactive facilities.

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Authors: S. Chokri

Abstract:

Load modeling is one of the central functions in power systems operations. Electricity cannot be stored, which means that for electric utility, the estimate of the future demand is necessary in managing the production and purchasing in an economically reasonable way. A majority of the recently reported approaches are based on neural network. The attraction of the methods lies in the assumption that neural networks are able to learn properties of the load. However, the development of the methods is not finished, and the lack of comparative results on different model variations is a problem. This paper presents a new approach in order to predict the Tunisia daily peak load. The proposed method employs a computational intelligence scheme based on the Fuzzy neural network (FNN) and support vector regression (SVR). Experimental results obtained indicate that our proposed FNN-SVR technique gives significantly good prediction accuracy compared to some classical techniques.

Keywords: Neural network, Load Forecasting, Fuzzy inference, Machine learning, Fuzzy modeling and rule extraction, Support Vector Regression.

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Authors: S. Thongchai

Abstract:

Result of the study on knowledge management systems in businesses was shown that the most of these businesses provide internet accessibility for their employees in order to study new knowledge via internet, corporate website, electronic mail, and electronic learning system. These business organizations use information technology application for knowledge management because of convenience, time saving, ease of use, accuracy of information and knowledge usefulness. The result indicated prominent improvements for corporate knowledge management systems as the following; 1) administrations must support corporate knowledge management system 2) the goal of corporate knowledge management must be clear 3) corporate culture should facilitate the exchange and sharing of knowledge within the organization 4) cooperation of personnel of all levels must be obtained 5) information technology infrastructure must be provided 6) they must develop the system regularly and constantly. 

Keywords: Business organizations, information technology application, knowledge management systems, and prominent improvements.

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Authors: Rana M. Zeina, Laila AL-Ayadhi, Shahid Bashir

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Cognitive symptoms and behavioral symptoms may, in fact, overlap and be related to the level of the general cognitive function. We have measured the behavioral aspects of autism and its correlation to the cognitive ability in 30 children with ASD. We used a neuropsychological Battery CANTAB eclipse to evaluate the ASD children's cognitive ability. Individuals with ASD and challenging behaviors showed significant correlation between some cognitive abilities and Motor aspects. Based on these findings, we can conclude that the motor behavioral problems in autism affect specific cognitive abilities in ASDs such as comprehension, learning, reversal, acquisition, attention set shifting, and speed of reaction to one stimulus. Future researches should also focus on the relationship between motor stereotypes and other subtypes of repetitive behaviors, such as verbal stereotypes, ritual routine adherence, and the use of different types of CANTAB tests.

Keywords: Autism, Cognitive ability, Motor Behavior, and Neuropsychological battery.

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Authors: Ivana Šimonová

Abstract:

As widely accepted, didactic multiple-choice tests are referred as a tool providing feedback easily and quickly. Despite the final test scores are corrected by a special formula and number of high plausibility distractors is taken into consideration, the results may be influenced by the random choice. The survey was held in three academic years at the Faculty of Informatics and Management, University of Hradec Kralove, Czech Republic, where the multiple-choice test scores were compared to the open-answer ones. The research sample included 567 respondents. The collected data were processed by the NCSS2007 statistic software by the method of frequency and multiple regression analysis and presented in the form of figures and tables. The results proved statistically significant differences in test scores in academic years 2 and 3, and were discussed from the point of the credit system and conditions for teaching/learning English in the Czech education system.

Keywords: ESP, higher education, multiple-choice test, open-answer test.

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Authors: F. Arıkan, Z. Karakus

Abstract:

Cancer is a widespread disease in the world and is the third reason of deaths among the chronic diseases. Educating patients and caregivers has a vital role for empowering them in managing disease and treatment's symptoms. Informing of the patients about their disease and treatment process decreases patient's distress and decisional conflicts, improves wellbeing of them, increase success of the treatment and survival. In this era, technological education methods are used for patients that have different chronic disease. Many studies indicated that especially web based patient education such as chronic obstructive lung disease; heart failure is more effective than printed materials. Web based education provide easiness to patients while they are reaching health services. It also has more advantages because of it decreases health cost and requirement of staff. It is thought that web based education may be beneficial method for cancer patient's empowerment in coping with the disease's symptoms. The aim of the study is evaluate the effectiveness of web based education for cancer patients' clinical outcomes.

Keywords: Cancer Patients, E-Learning, Nursing, Web Based Education.

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Authors: Chothmal, Basant Agarwal

Abstract:

Sentiment analysis means to classify a given review document into positive or negative polar document. Sentiment analysis research has been increased tremendously in recent times due to its large number of applications in the industry and academia. Sentiment analysis models can be used to determine the opinion of the user towards any entity or product. E-commerce companies can use sentiment analysis model to improve their products on the basis of users’ opinion. In this paper, we propose a new One-class Support Vector Machine (One-class SVM) based sentiment analysis model for movie review documents. In the proposed approach, we initially extract features from one class of documents, and further test the given documents with the one-class SVM model if a given new test document lies in the model or it is an outlier. Experimental results show the effectiveness of the proposed sentiment analysis model.

Keywords: Feature selection methods, Machine learning, NB, One-class SVM, Sentiment Analysis, Support Vector Machine.

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Authors: Ya-Hui Lee, Ching-Yi Lu, Hui-Chuan Wei

Abstract:

The purpose of this research was to explore the relation between proactive coping and well-being of middle-aged adults. We conducted survey research that with t-test, one way ANOVA, Pearson correlation and stepwise multiple regression to analyze. This research drew on a sample of 395 participants from the senior learning centers of Taiwan. The results provided the following findings: 1.The participants from different residence areas associated significant difference with proactive coping, but not with well-being. 2. The participants’ perceived of financial level associated significant difference with both proactive coping and well-being. 3. There was significant difference between participants’ income and well-being. 4. The proactive coping was positively correlated with well-being. 5. From stepwise multiple regression analysis showed that two dimensions of proactive coping had positive predictability. Finally, these results of this study can be provided as references for designing older adult educational programs in Taiwan.

Keywords: Middle-age adults, learners, proactive coping, well-being.

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Authors: Hasan Karal, Yasemin Aydin, Ömer Faruk Ursavas

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Primary studies are being carried out in Turkey for expanding information and communication technologies (ICT) aided instruction activities. Subject of the present study is to identify whether those studies achieved their goals in the application. Information technologies (IT) formative teachers in the primary schools, and academicians in the faculties of education were interviewed to investigate the process and results of implementing computer-aided instruction methods whose basis is strengthened in theory. Analysis of the results gained from two separate surveys demonstrated that capability of the teachers in elementary education institutions for carrying into effect computer-aided instruction and technical infrastructure has not been established for computer-aided instruction practices yet. Prospective teachers must be well-equipped in ICT to duly fulfill requirements of modern education and also must be self-confident. Finally, scope and intensity of the courses given in connection with teaching of the ICT in faculties of education needs to be revised.

Keywords: Information and Communication Technologies, Teacher, Education

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Authors: M. T. Becerra, F. Martín, P. Gutiérrez, S. Cubo, E. Iglesias, A. A. Sáenz del Castillo, P. Cañamero

Abstract:

The consolidation of the European Higher Education Area (EHEA) in universities has led to significant changes in student training. This paper, part of a Teaching Innovation Project, starts from new training requirements that are fit within Undergraduate Thesis Project, a subject that culminate student learning. Undergraduate Thesis Project is current assessment system that weigh the student acquired training in university education. Students should develop a range of cross curricular competences such as public presentation of ideas, problems and solutions both orally and writing in Undergraduate Thesis Project. Specifically, we intend with our innovation proposal to provide resources that enable university students from Teacher Degree in Education Faculty of University of Extremadura (Spain) to develop the cross curricular competence of public speaking.

Keywords: Interaction, Public Speaking, Student, University.

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Authors: Salvatore Marra, Francesco C. Morabito

Abstract:

In this paper we present an efficient approach for the prediction of two sunspot-related time series, namely the Yearly Sunspot Number and the IR5 Index, that are commonly used for monitoring solar activity. The method is based on exploiting partially recurrent Elman networks and it can be divided into three main steps: the first one consists in a “de-rectification" of the time series under study in order to obtain a new time series whose appearance, similar to a sum of sinusoids, can be modelled by our neural networks much better than the original dataset. After that, we normalize the derectified data so that they have zero mean and unity standard deviation and, finally, train an Elman network with only one input, a recurrent hidden layer and one output using a back-propagation algorithm with variable learning rate and momentum. The achieved results have shown the efficiency of this approach that, although very simple, can perform better than most of the existing solar activity forecasting methods.

Keywords: Elman neural networks, sunspot, solar activity, time series prediction.

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Authors: Margaret F. Shipley

Abstract:

Fuzzy logic can be used when knowledge is incomplete or when ambiguity of data exists. The purpose of this paper is to propose a proactive fuzzy set- based model for reacting to the risk inherent in investment activities relative to a complete view of portfolio management. Fuzzy rules are given where, depending on the antecedents, the portfolio size may be slightly or significantly decreased or increased. The decision maker considers acceptable bounds on the proportion of acceptable risk and return. The Fuzzy Controller model allows learning to be achieved as 1) the firing strength of each rule is measured, 2) fuzzy output allows rules to be updated, and 3) new actions are recommended as the system continues to loop. An extension is given to the fuzzy controller that evaluates potential financial loss before adjusting the portfolio. An application is presented that illustrates the algorithm and extension developed in the paper.

Keywords: Portfolio Management, Financial Market Monitoring, Fuzzy Controller, Fuzzy Logic,

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