Search results for: Tukey honest significant differences

Authors: Christina G. Siontorou

Abstract:

This paper presents an integrated knowledge-based approach to multi-scale modeling of aquatic systems, with a view to enhancing predictive power and aiding environmental management and policy-making. The basic phases of this approach have been exemplified in the case of a bay in Saronicos Gulf (Attiki, Greece). The results showed a significant problem with rising phytoplankton blooms linked to excessive microbial growth, arisen mostly due to increased nitrogen inflows; therefore, the nitrification/denitrification processes of the benthic and water column sub-systems have provided the quality variables to be monitored for assessing environmental status. It is thereby demonstrated that the proposed approach facilitates modeling choices and implementation option decisions, while it provides substantial support for knowledge and experience capitalization in long-term water management.

Keywords: Aquatic ecosystem, integrated modeling, multi-scale modeling, ontological platform.

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Authors: Mehdi Modabberifar, Behrouz Raad, Bahman Mirzakhani

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Flanges are widely used for connecting valves, pipes and other industrial devices such as gearboxes. Method of producing a flange has a considerable impact on the manner of their involvement with the industrial engines and gearboxes. By Using die casting instead of sand casting and machining for manufacturing flanges, production speed and dimensional accuracy of the parts increases. Also, in die casting, obtained dimensions are close to final dimensions and hence the need for machining flanges after die casting process decreases which makes a significant savings in raw materials and improves the mechanical properties of flanges. In this paper, a typical die of an industrial helical gearbox flange (size ISO 50) was designed and die casting process for producing this type of flange was simulated using ProCAST software. The results of simulation were used for optimizing die design. Finally, using the results of the analysis, optimized die was built.

Keywords: Die casting, finite element, flange.

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Authors: Neelima Gupta, Seema Aggarwal

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Most of the biclustering/projected clustering algorithms are based either on the Euclidean distance or correlation coefficient which capture only linear relationships. However, in many applications, like gene expression data and word-document data, non linear relationships may exist between the objects. Mutual Information between two variables provides a more general criterion to investigate dependencies amongst variables. In this paper, we improve upon our previous algorithm that uses mutual information for biclustering in terms of computation time and also the type of clusters identified. The algorithm is able to find biclusters with mixed relationships and is faster than the previous one. To the best of our knowledge, none of the other existing algorithms for biclustering have used mutual information as a similarity measure. We present the experimental results on synthetic data as well as on the yeast expression data. Biclusters on the yeast data were found to be biologically and statistically significant using GO Tool Box and FuncAssociate.

Keywords: Biclustering, mutual information.

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Authors: Josefina Barnachea Janier, Radzuan B. Razali, Afza Shafie, Brahim Belhaouari Samir

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In the Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR) method, use of Carbon dioxide flooding whereby CO₂ is injected into an oil reservoir to increase output when extracting oil resulted significant recovery worldwide. The carbon dioxide function as a pressurizing agent when mixed into the underground crude oil will reduce its viscosity and will enable a rapid oil flow. Despite the CO₂’s advantage in the oil recovery, it may result to asphaltene precipitation a problem that will cause the reduction of oil produced from oil wells. In severe cases, asphaltene precipitation can cause costly blockages in oil pipes and machinery. This paper presents reviews of several studies done on mathematical modeling of asphaltene precipitation. The synthesized result from several researches done on this topic can be used as guide in order to better understand asphaltene precipitation. Likewise, this can be used as initial reference for students, and new researchers doing study on asphaltene precipitation.

Keywords: Asphaltene precipitation, crude oil, carbon dioxide flooding, enhanced oil recovery.

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Authors: Wang Zhenzhen, Wang Xu, Hong Liangping

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The construction of thematic commercial streets has been on the hotspot with the rapid development of cities. In order to improve the image and competitiveness of cities, many cities are building or rebuilding thematic commercial streets. However, many contradictions and problems have emerged during this process. Therefore, it is significant, for both the practice and the research, to analyze the development of thematic commercial streets and provide some useful suggestions. Through the deep research and comparative study of the eight typical thematic commercial streets in Harbin, this paper summarize the current situations, laws and influencing factors of the development of these streets, and then put forward some suggestions about the plan, constructions and developments of the thematic commercial streets.

Keywords: Thematic commercial streets, laws of the development, influence factors, the constructions and developments, degrees of aggregation.

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Authors: Amudha Kadirvelu, Sivalal Sadasivan

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While the problem based learning (PBL) approach promotes unsupervised self-directed learning (SDL), many students experience difficulty juggling the role of being an information recipient and information seeker. Logbooks have been used to assess trainee doctors but not in other areas. This study aimed to determine the effectiveness of logbook for assessing SDL during PBL sessions in first year medical students. The log book included a learning checklist and knowledge and skills components. Comparisons with the baseline assessment of student performance in PBL and that at semester end after logbook intervention showed significant improvements in student performance (31.5 ± 8 vs. 17.7 ± 4.4; p<0.001) with a large effect size of 3.93. The learner-s log for PBL has played an important role in enhancing SDL in first year medical students. Learner-s log could be a good self-assessment tool for the undergraduate medical students.

Keywords: Problem based learning, self-directed learning, logbook, self-assessment.

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Authors: Shoureshe Kanani, Hassan Zandi

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Historical monuments as architectural heritage are, economically and culturally, considered one of the key aspects for modern communities. Cultural heritage represents a country-s national identity and pride and maintains and enriches that country-s culture. Therefore, conservation of the monuments remained from our ancestors requires everybody-s serious and unremitting effort. Conservation, renewal, restoration, and technical study of cultural and historical matters are issues which have a special status among various forms of art and science in the present century and this is due to two reasons: firstly, progress of humankind in this century has created a factor called environmental pollution which not only has caused new destructive processes of cultural/historical monuments but also has accelerated the previous destructive processes by several times, and secondly, the rapid advance of various sciences, especially chemistry, has lead to the contribution of new methods and materials to this significant issue.

Keywords: Air Pollution, Climatic, Historical Monuments

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Authors: H. P. Singh, S. Singh

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The voice signal in Voice over Internet protocol (VoIP) system is processed through the best effort policy based IP network, which leads to the network degradations including delay, packet loss jitter. The work in this paper presents the implementation of finite impulse response (FIR) filter for voice quality improvement in the VoIP system through distributed arithmetic (DA) algorithm. The VoIP simulations are conducted with AMR-NB 6.70 kbps and G.729a speech coders at different packet loss rates and the performance of the enhanced VoIP signal is evaluated using the perceptual evaluation of speech quality (PESQ) measurement for narrowband signal. The results show reduction in the computational complexity in the system and significant improvement in the quality of the VoIP voice signal.

Keywords: VoIP, Signal Quality, Distributed Arithmetic, Packet Loss, Speech Coder.

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Authors: Masoud Saeedi, Shirin Rahimi Kazerooni, Vahid Parvaresh

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Validity is an overriding consideration in language testing. If a test score is intended for a particular purpose, this must be supported through empirical evidence. This article addresses the validity of a multiple-choice achievement test (MCT). The test is administered at the end of each semester to decide about students' mastery of a course in general English. To provide empirical evidence pertaining to the validity of this test, two criterion measures were used. In so doing, a Cloze test and a C-test which are reported to gauge general English proficiency were utilized. The results of analyses show that there is a statistically significant correlation among participants' scores on the MCT, Cloze, and Ctest. Drawing on the findings of the study, it can be cautiously deduced that these tests measure the same underlying trait. However, allowing for the limitations of using criterion measures to validate tests, we cannot make any absolute claim as to the validity of this MCT test.

Keywords: C-test, cloze test, multiple-choice test, validity argument.

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Authors: Irina Severin, M. Caramihai, K. Chung, G. Tasca, T. Park

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The current study has investigated the ageing phenomena of silica optical fibres in relation to water activity which might be accelerated when exposed to a supplementary energy, such as microwaves. A controlled stress by winding fibres onto accurate diameter mandrel was applied. Taking into account that normally a decrease in fibre strength is induced in time by chemical action of water, the effects of cumulative reagents such as: water, applied stress and supplementary energy (microwave) in some cases acted in the opposite manner. The microwave effect as a structural relaxation catalyst appears unexpected, even if the overall gain in fibre strength is not high, but the stress corrosion factor revealed significant increase in certain simulation conditions.

Keywords: optical fibres, mechanical testing, aging, microwave, structural relaxation.

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Authors: Shun-Qi Zhang, Shu-Yang Zhang, Min Chen

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Applying strong electric field on piezoelectric actuators, on one hand very significant electroelastic material nonlinear effects will occur, on the other hand piezo plates and shells may undergo large displacements and rotations. In order to give a precise prediction of piezolaminated smart structures under large electric field, this paper develops a finite element (FE) model accounting for both electroelastic material nonlinearity and geometric nonlinearity with large rotations based on the first order shear deformation (FSOD) hypothesis. The proposed FE model is applied to analyze a piezolaminated semicircular shell structure.

Keywords: Smart structures, piezolamintes, material nonlinearity, geometric nonlinearity, strong electric field.

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Authors: Amjad Abdullah, Amjad Yahya, Bushra Aljohani, Amani S. Alghamdi

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Change point detection is an important part of data analysis. The presence of a change point refers to a significant change in the behavior of a time series. In this article, we examine the detection of multiple change points of parameters of the exponential Lomax distribution, which is broad and flexible compared with other distributions while fitting data. We used the Schwarz information criterion and binary segmentation to detect multiple change points in publicly available data on the average temperature in the ozone layer. The change points were successfully located.

Keywords: Binary segmentation, change point, exponential Lomax distribution, information criterion.

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Authors: Ahmed Chalak Shakir, GuXuemai, Jia Min

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Recently, wireless sensor networks have been paid more interest, are widely used in a lot of commercial and military applications, and may be deployed in critical scenarios (e.g. when a malfunctioning network results in danger to human life or great financial loss). Such networks must be protected against human intrusion by using the secret keys to encrypt the exchange messages between communicating nodes. Both the symmetric and asymmetric methods have their own drawbacks for use in key management. Thus, we avoid the weakness of these two cryptosystems and make use of their advantages to establish a secure environment by developing the new method for encryption depending on the idea of code conversion. The code conversion-s equations are used as the key for designing the proposed system based on the basics of logic gate-s principals. Using our security architecture, we show how to reduce significant attacks on wireless sensor networks.

Keywords: logic gates, code conversions, Gray-code, and clustering.

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Authors: Hyeondal Jeong, Yoonjung Baek

Abstract:

This research examines the effects of positive psychological capital (or PsyCap) on employee’s outcomes (satisfaction, commitment, organizational citizenship behavior, innovation behavior and individual creativity). This study conducted a meta-analysis of articles published in the Republic of Korea. As a result, positive psychological capital has a positive effect on the behavior of employees. Heterogeneity was identified among the studies included in the analysis and the context factors were analyzed; the study proposes contextual factors such as team tenure. The moderating effect of team tenure was not statistically significant. The implications were discussed based on the analysis results.

Keywords: Positive psychological capital, satisfaction, commitment, OCB, creativity, meta-analysis.

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Authors: Lina Fernandes, G. N. Nayak, D. Ilangovan

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Two short sediment cores collected from mangrove areas of Manori and Thane creeks along Mumbai coast were analysed for sediment composition and metals (Fe, Mn, Cu, Pb, Co, Ni, Zn, Cr and V). The statistical analysis of Pearson correlation matrix proved that there is a significant relationship between metal concentration and finer grain size in Manori creek while poor correlation was observed in Thane creek. Based on the enrichment factor, the present metal to background metal ratios clearly reflected maximum enrichment of Cu and Pb in Manori creek and Mn in Thane creek. Geoaccumulation index calculated indicate that the study area is unpolluted with respect to Fe, Mn, Co, Ni, Zn and Cr in both the cores while moderately polluted with Cu and Pb in Manori creek. Based on contamination degree, both the core sediments were found to be considerably contaminated with metals.

Keywords: Creek, Igeo, Mumbai, trace metals

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Authors: Ibrahim Ozkan

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In this study, a cross-layer design which combines adaptive modulation and coding (AMC) and hybrid automatic repeat request (HARQ) techniques for a cooperative wireless network is investigated analytically. Previous analyses of such systems in the literature are confined to the case where the fading channel is independent at each retransmission, which can be unrealistic unless the channel is varying very fast. On the other hand, temporal channel correlation can have a significant impact on the performance of HARQ systems. In this study, utilizing a Markov channel model which accounts for the temporal correlation, the performance of non-cooperative and cooperative networks are investigated in terms of packet loss rate and throughput metrics for Chase combining HARQ strategy.

Keywords: Cooperative network, adaptive modulation and coding, hybrid ARQ, correlated fading.

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Authors: Mustafa M. Donma, Orkide Donma

Abstract:

Cardiovascular (CV) pathology is one of the expected consequences of excessive fat gain. The role of zinc (Zn) in thyroid hormone metabolism (THM) is a matter of debate. Both thyroid stimulating hormone (TSH) and Zn levels are subject to variation in obese individuals. Zn participates in THM. It is closely related to TSH. Since thyroid hormones are required for Zn absorption, hypothyroidism can lead to Zn deficiency and vice versa. Zn exhibits protective effects on CV health and it is inversely correlated with CV markers in childhood obesity. The association between subclinical hypothyroidism (SCHT) and metabolic disorders is under investigation due to its clinical importance. SCHT is defined as the elevated serum TSH levels in the presence of normal free thyroxin (T4) concentrations. The aim of this study is to evaluate the associations between TSH levels and Zn concentrations in SCHT cases detected in morbid obese (MO) children with and without metabolic syndrome (MetS) [(MOMetS+ and MOMetS-)], respectively. 42 children were present in each study group. Informed consent forms were obtained. Tekrdag Namik Kemal University Faculty of Medicine Non-Interventional Clinical Investigations Ethical Committee approved the study protocol. World Health Organization criteria were used for obesity classification. Children with age and sex-dependent body mass index percentile values above 99 were defined as MO. Children exhibiting at least two of MetS criteria were included in MOMetS+ group. Elevated fasting blood glucose, elevated triglycerides (TRG)/decreased high density lipoprotein-cholesterol (HDL-C) concentrations, elevated blood pressure values in addition to central obesity were listed as MetS criteria. Anthropometric measures were recorded. Routine biochemical analyses were performed. In MOMetS- group 13, in MOMetS+ group 15 children were with SCHT. Statistical analyses were performed. p < 0.05 was accepted as statistically significant. In MOMetS- and MOMetS+ groups, TSH levels were 4.1 ± 2.9 mU/L and 4.6 ± 3.1 mU/L, respectively. Corresponding values for SCHT cases were 7.3 ± 3.1 mU/L and 8.0 ± 2.7 mU/L. Free T4 levels were within normal limits. Zn concentrations were negatively correlated with TSH levels in both groups. Significant negative correlation calculated in MOMetS+ group (r = -0.909; p < 0.001) was much stronger than that found in MOMetS- group (r = -0.706; p < 0.05). This strong correlation (r = -0.909; p < 0.001) calculated for cases with SCHT in MOMetS+ group was much lower in the same group (r = -0.793; p < 0.001) when all cases were considered. In conclusion, the presence of strong correlations between TSH and Zn in SCHT in both MOMetS- and MOMetS+ groups have pointed out that MO children were under the threat of CV pathologies. The detection of the much stronger correlation in MOMetS+ group in comparison with the correlation found in MOMetS- group was the indicator of greater CV risk due to the presence of MetS. In MOMetS+ group, correlation in SCHT cases found higher than correlation calculated for all cases confirmed much higher CV risk due to the contribution of SCHT.

Keywords: Cardiovascular risk, child morbid obesity, subclinical hypothyroidism, zinc.

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Authors: Z. H. Shi, T. J. Dou, H. Zhang, H. X. Huang, N. Zeng

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The contamination of significant quantities of soils and sediments with uranium and other actinide elements as a result of nuclear activity poses many environmental risks. The electrokinetic process is one of the most promising remediation techniques for sludge, sediment, and saturated or unsaturated soils contaminated with heavy metals and radionuclides. However, secondary waste is a major concern for soil contaminated with nuclides. To minimize the generation of secondary wastes, this study used the anion and cation exchange membranes to improve the performance of the experimental apparatus. Remediation experiments of uranium-contaminated soil were performed with different agents. The results show that using acetic acid and EDTA as chelating agents clearly enhances the migration ability of the uranium. The ion exchange membranes (IEMs) used in the experiments not only reduce secondary wastes, but also, keep the soil pH stable.

Keywords: Electrokinetic remediation, ion exchange membranes, soil, uranium.

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Authors: Ali Farhaninejad, Rizal Zahari, Ehsan Rasooliyazdi

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Increasing energy absorption is a significant parameter in vehicle design. Absorbing more energy results in decreasing occupant damage. Limitation of the deflection in a side impact results in decreased energy absorption (SEA) and increased peak load (PL). Hence a high crash force jeopardizes passenger safety and vehicle integrity. The aims of this paper are to determine suitable dimensions and material of a square beam subjected to side impact, in order to maximize SEA and minimize PL. To achieve this novel goal, the geometric parameters of a square beam are optimized using the response surface method (RSM).multi-objective optimization is performed, and the optimum design for different response features is obtained.

Keywords: Crashworthiness, side impact, energy absorption, multi-objective optimization, Square beam, SEA

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Authors: Basudev Ghosh, Sreyasi Banerjee

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Using pseudo potential method arbitrary amplitude ion-acoustic solitary waves have been theoretically studied in a collisionless plasma consisting of warm drifting positive ions, Boltzmann positrons and nonthermal electrons. Ion-acoustic solitary wave solutions have been obtained and the dependence of the solitary wave profile on different plasma parameters has been studied numerically. Lower and higher order compressive and rarefactive solitary waves are observed in presence of positrons, nonthermal electrons, ion drift velocity and finite ion temperature. Inclusion of higher order nonlinearity is shown to have significant correction to the solitary wave profile for the same values of plasma parameters.

Keywords: Ion-acoustic waves, Nonthermal electrons, Sagdeev potential, Solitary waves.

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Authors: F. Calisir, C. A. Gumussoy, A. E. Bayraktaroglu, E. Saygivar

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Meeting users- requirements is one of predictors of project success. There should be a match between the expectations of the users and the perception of key project personnel with respect to usability and functionality. The aim of this study is to make a comparison of key project personnel-s and potential users- (customer representatives) evaluations of the relative importance of usability and functionality factors in a software design project. Analytical Network Process (ANP) was used to analyze the relative importance of the factors. The results show that navigation and interaction are the most significant factors,andsatisfaction and efficiency are the least important factors for both groups. Further, it can be concluded that having similar orders and scores of usability and functionality factors for both groups shows that key project personnel have captured the expectations and requirements of potential users accurately.

Keywords: Functionality, software design, usability.

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Authors: C. Asarkaya, S. Z. Siretioglu Girgin

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Turkish migrants constitute the largest group among people with migration background living in Germany. Turkish women’s labor market participation is of significant importance for their social and economic integration to the German society. This paper thus aims to investigate their labor market positions. Turkish migrant women participate less in the labor market compared to men, and are responsible for most of the housework, child care, and elderly care. This is due to their traditional roles in the family, educational level, insufficient knowledge of German language, and insufficient professional experience. We strongly recommend that wide-reaching integration policies for women are formulated, so as to encourage participation of not only migrant women but also their husbands, fathers and/or brothers, and natives.

Keywords: Empowerment, Germany, Labor Market, Migration, Turkish, Women.

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Authors: K. Jarmkom, P. Eakwaropas, W. Khobjai, S. Techaeoi

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Ancient Thai perfumed powder was used as a fragrance for clothing, food, and the body. Plant-based natural Thai perfume products are known as Pang-Rum. The objective of this study was to evaluate the stability of essential oils after six months of incubation. The chemical compositions were determined by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS), in terms of the qualitative composition of the isolated essential oil. The isolation of the essential oil of natural products by incubate sample for 5 min at 40 ºC is described. The volatile components were identified by percentage of total peak areas comparing their retention times of GC chromatograph with NIST mass spectral library. The results show no significant difference in the seven chromatograms of perfumed powder (Pang-Rum) both with binder and without binder. Further identification was done by GC-MS. Some components of Pang-Rum with/without binder were changed by temperature and time.

Keywords: GC-MS analysis, essential oils, stability, Pang-Rum.

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Authors: Kahil Amar, Boukais Said, Kezmane Ali, Hamizi Mohand, Hannachi Naceur Eddine

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The principle of the seismic performance evaluation methods is to provide a measure of capability for a building or set of buildings to be damaged by an earthquake. The common objective of many of these methods is to supply classification criteria. The purpose of this study is to present a method for assessing the seismic performance of structures, based on Pushover method; we are particularly interested in reinforced concrete frame structures, which represent a significant percentage of damaged structures after a seismic event. The work is based on the characterization of seismic movement of the various earthquake zones in terms of PGA and PGD that is obtained by means of SIMQK_GR and PRISM software and the correlation between the points of performance and the scalar characterizing the earthquakes will developed.

Keywords: Seismic performance, Pushover method, characterization of seismic motion, harmfulness of the seismic signal

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Authors: Fu Shiming, Pei Yifei

Abstract:

To study the impact of the inter-module ventilation (IMV) on the space station, the Computational Fluid Dynamic (CFD) model under the influence of IMV, the mathematical model, boundary conditions and calculation method are established and determined to analyze the influence of IMV on cabin air flow characteristics and velocity distribution firstly; and then an integrated overall thermal mathematical model of the space station is used to consider the impact of IMV on thermal management. The results show that: the IMV has a significant influence on the cabin air flow, the flowrate of IMV within a certain range can effectively improve the air velocity distribution in cabin, if too much may lead to its deterioration; IMV can affect the heat deployment of the different modules in space station, thus affecting its thermal management, the use of IMV can effectively maintain the temperature levels of the different modules and help the space station to dissipate the waste heat.

Keywords: CFD, Environment control and life support, Space station, Thermal management, Thermal mathematical model.

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Authors: Azher H. Qamar

Abstract:

Pregnancy is considered a special period in a woman’s life. There are myths about pregnancy that describe gender predictions, dietary beliefs, pregnancy signs, and risk of magic or witchcraft. Majority of these myths is in connection with the early childcare. In traditional societies midwives and experienced women practice and teach these myths to young mothers. Mother who feel special and vulnerable, at the same time feel secure in following these socially transmitted myths. Rural Punjab, a province of Pakistan has a culture rich with beliefs and myths. Myths about pregnancy are significant in rural culture and pregnancy care is seen as mother and childcare. This paper presents my research reflections that I did as a part of my Ph.D studies about early childcare beliefs and rituals practiced in rural Punjab, Pakistan.

Keywords: Myths, Pregnancy, BabyCare, Culture

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Authors: M. Heck, H. Vettiger

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Small and medium-sized enterprises (SME) are the backbone of central Europe’s economies and have a significant contribution to the gross domestic product. Production planning and scheduling (PPS) is still a crucial element in manufacturing industries of the 21^st century even though this area of research is more than a century old. The topic of PPS is well researched especially in the context of large enterprises in the manufacturing industry. However the implementation of PPS methodologies within SME is mostly unobserved. This work analyzes how PPS is implemented in SME with the geographical focus on Switzerland and its vicinity. Based on restricted resources compared to large enterprises, SME have to face different challenges. The real problem areas of selected enterprises in regards of PPS are identified and evaluated. For the identified real-life problem areas of SME clear and detailed recommendations are created, covering concepts and best practices and the efficient usage of PPS. Furthermore the economic and entrepreneurial value for companies is lined out and why the implementation of the introduced recommendations is advised.

Keywords: Central Europe, PPS, Production Planning, SME.

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Authors: W. Jay Gabbard, Saundra H. Starks, Jeremiah Jaggers, Amy C. Cappiccie

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An ethical mandate of the social work profession in the United States is that BSW and MSW graduates are sufficiently prepared to both understand diverse cultural values and beliefs and offer services that are culturally sensitive and relevant to clients. This skill set is particularly important for social workers in the 21st Century, given the increasing globalization of the U.S. and world. The purpose of this paper is to outline a pedagogical model for teaching cultural competency that resulted in a significant increase in cultural competency for MSW graduates at Western Kentucky University (WKU). More specifically, this model is predicated on five specific culturally sensitive principles and activities that were found to be highly effective in conveying culturally relevant knowledge and skills to MSW students at WKU. Future studies can assess the effectiveness of these principles in other MSW programs across the U.S. and abroad.

Keywords: Cultural Competence, Social Work, Teaching

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Authors: S. Dorbani, F. Kharchi, F. Salem, K. Arroudj, N. Chioukh

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The need for thermal comfort of buildings, with the aim of saving energy, has always generated a big interest during the development of methods, to improve the mode of construction. In the present paper, which is concerned by the valorization of locally abundant materials, mixtures of plaster and dune sand have been studied. To point out the thermal performances of these mixtures, a comparative study has been established between this product and the two materials most commonly used in construction, the concrete and hollow brick. The results showed that optimal mixture is made with 1/3 plaster and 2/3 dune sand. This mortar achieved significant increases in the mechanical strengths, which allow it to be used as a carrier element for buildings, of up to two levels. The element obtained offers an acceptable thermal insulation, with a decrease the outer-wall construction thickness.

Keywords: Local materials, mortar, plaster, dune sand, compaction, mechanical performance, thermal performance.

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Authors: S. Wongkoon, M. Pollar, M. Jaroensutasinee, K. Jaroensutasinee

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This study aimed at developing a forecasting model on the number of Dengue Haemorrhagic Fever (DHF) incidence in Northern Thailand using time series analysis. We developed Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) models on the data collected between 2003-2006 and then validated the models using the data collected between January-September 2007. The results showed that the regressive forecast curves were consistent with the pattern of actual values. The most suitable model was the SARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,0)12 model with a Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) of 12.2931 and a Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE) of 8.91713. The SARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,0)12 model fitting was adequate for the data with the Portmanteau statistic Q20 = 8.98644 ( x20,95= 27.5871, P>0.05). This indicated that there was no significant autocorrelation between residuals at different lag times in the SARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,0)12 model.

Keywords: Dengue, SARIMA, Time Series Analysis, Northern Thailand.

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