Search results for: sources of risk

Authors: Mikhail V. Khachaturyan

Abstract:

The article analyzes problems of improving the management systems of the ownership risks in the conditions of the transformation of the Russian economy. Among the main sources of threats business owners should highlight is the inefficiency of the implementation of business models and interaction with hired managers. In this context, it is particularly important to analyze the relationship of business models and ownership risks. The analysis of this problem appears to be relevant for a number of reasons: Firstly, the increased risk appetite of the owner directly affects the business model and the composition of his holdings; secondly, owners with significant stakes in the company are factors in the formation of particular types of risks for owners, for which relations have a significant influence on a firm's competitiveness and ultimately determines its survival; and thirdly, inefficient system of management ownership of risk is one of the main causes of mass bankruptcies, which significantly affects the stable operation of the economy as a whole. The separation of the processes of possession, disposal and use in modern organizations is the cause of not only problems in the process of interaction between the owner and managers in managing the organization as a whole, but also the asymmetric information about the kinds and forms of the main risks. Managers tend to avoid risky projects, inhibit the diversification of the organization's assets, while owners can insist on the development of such projects, with the aim not only of creating new values for themselves and consumers, but also increasing the value of the company as a result of increasing capital. In terms of separating ownership and management, evaluation of projects by the ratio of risk-yield requires preservation of the influence of the owner on the process of development and making management decisions. It is obvious that without a clearly structured system of participation of the owner in managing the risks of their business, further development is hopeless. In modern conditions of forming a risk management system, owners are compelled to compromise between the desire to increase the organization's ability to produce new value, and, consequently, increase its cost due to the implementation of risky projects and the need to tolerate the cost of lost opportunities of risk diversification. Improving the effectiveness of the management of ownership risks may also contribute to the revitalization of creditors on implementation claims to inefficient owners, which ultimately will contribute to the efficiency models of ownership control to exclude variants of insolvency. It is obvious that in modern conditions, the success of the model of the ownership of risk management and audit is largely determined by the ability and willingness of the owner to find a compromise between potential opportunities for expanding the firm's ability to create new value through risk and maintaining the current level of new value creation and an acceptable level of risk through the use of models of diversification.

Keywords: Risk management, ownership risks, economic transformation, Russian economy, management systems.

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Authors: Dae Gon Woo, Han Sung Kim, Dohyung Lim, Dong Jin Seo, In Deok Kong, Chang Yong Ko

Abstract:

Functional gastrointestinal disorders (FGID) affect millions of people spread all age regardless of race and sex. Emotional stress and obesity have been associated with increased reporting of gastrointestinal (GI) symptoms, but the relationship between FGID and risk factors (emotional stress or obesity) is unclear. Our aim was to assess the changes of the mechanical characteristics on the gastrointestinal tracts of the mentally fatigued obese and normal rat models. Finally, using the physical characteristics with micro-indentation test, we made a close investigation into the relation between FGID and risk factors quantitatively.

Keywords: Functional gastrointestinal disorders, Risk Factors, Mechanical Characteristics, Gastrointestinal Tract.

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Authors: Kitti Leangkrua

Abstract:

This paper presents a risk-based maintenance strategy of a power transformer in order to optimize operating and maintenance costs. The methodology involves the study and preparation of a database for the collection the technical data and test data of a power transformer. An evaluation of the overall condition of each transformer is performed by a program developed as a result of the measured results; in addition, the calculation of the main equipment separation to the overall condition of the transformer (% HI) and the criteria for evaluating the importance (% ImI) of each location where the transformer is installed. The condition assessment is performed by analysis test data such as electrical test, insulating oil test and visual inspection. The condition of the power transformer will be classified from very poor to very good condition. The importance is evaluated from load criticality, importance of load and failure consequence. The risk matrix is developed for evaluating the risk of each power transformer. The high risk power transformer will be focused firstly. The computerized program is developed for practical use, and the maintenance strategy of a power transformer can be effectively managed.

Keywords: Asset management, risk-based maintenance, power transformer, health index.

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Authors: Muhammad Jamaluddin Thaheem, Alberto De Marco

Abstract:

The area of Project Risk Management (PRM) has been extensively researched, and the utilization of various tools and techniques for managing risk in several industries has been sufficiently reported. Formal and systematic PRM practices have been made available for the construction industry. Based on such body of knowledge, this paper tries to find out the global picture of PRM practices and approaches with the help of a survey to look into the usage of PRM techniques and diffusion of software tools, their level of maturity, and their usefulness in the construction sector. Results show that, despite existing techniques and tools, their usage is limited: software tools are used only by a minority of respondents and their cost is one of the largest hurdles in adoption. Finally, the paper provides some important guidelines for future research regarding quantitative risk analysis techniques and suggestions for PRM software tools development and improvement.

Keywords: Construction industry, Project risk management, Software tools, Survey study.

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Authors: Pegah Farshadmanesh, Jamshid Mohammadi, Mehdi Modares

Abstract:

In nearly all earthquakes of the past century that resulted in moderate to significant damage, the occurrence of postearthquake fire ignition (PEFI) has imposed a serious hazard and caused severe damage, especially in urban areas. In order to reduce the loss of life and property caused by post-earthquake fires, there is a crucial need for predictive models to estimate the PEFI risk. The parameters affecting PEFI risk can be categorized as: 1) factors influencing fire ignition in normal (non-earthquake) condition, including floor area, building category, ignitability, type of appliance, and prevention devices, and 2) earthquake related factors contributing to the PEFI risk, including building vulnerability and earthquake characteristics such as intensity, peak ground acceleration, and peak ground velocity. State-of-the-art statistical PEFI risk models are solely based on limited available earthquake data, and therefore they cannot predict the PEFI risk for areas with insufficient earthquake records since such records are needed in estimating the PEFI model parameters. In this paper, the correlation between normal condition ignition risk, peak ground acceleration, and PEFI risk is examined in an effort to offer a means for predicting post-earthquake ignition events. An illustrative example is presented to demonstrate how such correlation can be employed in a seismic area to predict PEFI hazard.

Keywords: Fire risk, post-earthquake fire ignition (PEFI), risk management, seismicity.

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Authors: Chien-Lung Chen, Jeng-Lin Tsai, Feng-Chao Chung, Su-Ching Kuo, Kuo-Hsin Tseng, Pei-Hsuan Kuo, Li-Ying Hsieh, Ying I. Tsai

Abstract:

This study applied the Gaussian trajectory transfer-coefficient model (GTx) to simulate the particulate matter concentrations and the source apportionments at Nanzih Air Quality Monitoring Station in southern Taiwan from November 2007 to February 2008. The correlation coefficient between the observed and the calculated daily PM10 concentrations is 0.5 and the absolute bias of the PM10 concentrations is 24%. The simulated PM10 concentrations matched well with the observed data. Although the emission rate of PM10 was dominated by area sources (58%), the results of source apportionments indicated that the primary sources for PM10 at Nanzih Station were point sources (42%), area sources (20%) and then upwind boundary concentration (14%). The obvious difference of PM10 source apportionment between episode and non-episode days was upwind boundary concentrations which contributed to 20% and 11% PM10 sources, respectively. The gas-particle conversion of secondary aerosol and long range transport played crucial roles on the PM10 contribution to a receptor.

Keywords: back trajectory model, particulate matter, sourceapportionment

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Authors: S. A. Nta

Abstract:

Application of health risk assessment methods is important in order to comprehend the risk of human exposure to heavy metals and other dangerous pollutants. Four soil samples were collected at distances of 10, 20, 30 m and the control 100 m away from the dump site at depths of 0.3, 0.6 and 0.9 m. The collected soil samples were examined for Zn, Cu, Pb, Cd and Ni using standard methods. The health risks via the main pathways of human exposure to heavy metal were detected using relevant standard equations. Hazard quotient was calculated to determine non-carcinogenic health risk for each individual heavy metal. Life time cancer risk was calculated to determine the cumulative life cancer rating for each exposure pathway. The estimated health risk values for adults and children were generally lower than the reference dose. The calculated hazard quotient for the ingestion, inhalation and dermal contact pathways were less than unity. This means that there is no detrimental concern to the health on human exposure to heavy metals in contaminated soil. The life time cancer risk 5.4 × 10^-2 was higher than the acceptable threshold value of 1 × 10^-4 which is reflected to have significant health effects on human exposure to heavy metals in contaminated soil. Good hygienic practices are recommended to ease the potential risk to children and adult who are exposed to contaminated soils. Also, the local authorities should be made aware of such health risks for the purpose of planning the management strategy accordingly.

Keywords: Health risk assessment, pollution, heavy metals, soil.

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Authors: Piotr Prewysz-Kwinto

Abstract:

The market of financial instruments with high risk is developing very dynamically in recent years and attracts more and more interest of investors. It consists essentially of two groups of instruments, i.e. derivatives and exchange traded product (ETP), and each year new types are introduced and offered to investors. The aim of this paper is to present the principles concerning financial instruments with high investment risk available on the Warsaw Stock Exchange (WSE), because they have quite complex constructions, and to evaluate the development of this market. In order to achieve this aim, statistical data from 2014-2016 was analyzed. The results confirm that the financial instruments with high investment risk available on the WSE constitute a diversified and the most numerous group of financial instruments and attract the most interest of investors. Responsible investing requires, however, a good knowledge of how they work and how they can generate profit to not expose oneself to unexpected losses.

Keywords: Derivatives, exchange traded products, financial instruments, financial market, risk, stock exchange.

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Authors: P Bumb, U Desideri, F Quattrocchi, L Arcioni

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This paper presents the feasibility study of CO2 sequestration from the sources to the sinks in the prospective of Italian Industries. CO2 produced at these sources captured, compressed to supercritical pressures, transported via pipelines and stored in underground geologic formations such as depleted oil and natural gas reservoirs, un-minable coal seams and deep saline aquifers. In this work, we present the optimized pipeline infrastructure for the CO2 with appropriate constraints to find lower cost system by the use of nonlinear optimization software LINGO 11.0. This study was conducted on CO2 transportation complex network of Italian Industries, to find minimum cost network for transporting the CO2 from sources to the sinks.

Keywords: CCS, CO2, ECBM, EU, NAP, LINGO, UNMIG.

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Authors: Mojtaba Rezaei, Elham Heydari

Abstract:

This paper highlights the empirical results of analyzing the correlation between accounting information and systematic risk. This association is analyzed among financial ratios and systematic risk by considering the financial statement of 39 companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) for five years (2014-2018). Financial ratios have been categorized into four groups and to describe the special features, as representative of accounting information we selected: Return on Asset (ROA), Debt Ratio (Total Debt to Total Asset), Current Ratio (current assets to current debt), Asset Turnover (Net sales to Total assets), and Total Assets. The hypotheses were tested through simple and multiple linear regression and T-student test. The findings illustrate that there is no significant relationship between accounting information and market risk. This indicates that in the selected sample, historical accounting information does not fully reflect the price of stocks.

Keywords: Accounting information, market risk, systematic risk, efficient market hypothesis, EMH, Tehran Stock Exchange, TSE.

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Authors: Siavash Asadi Ghajarloo

Abstract:

Nowadays predicting political risk level of country has become a critical issue for investors who intend to achieve accurate information concerning stability of the business environments. Since, most of the times investors are layman and nonprofessional IT personnel; this paper aims to propose a framework named GECR in order to help nonexpert persons to discover political risk stability across time based on the political news and events. To achieve this goal, the Bayesian Networks approach was utilized for 186 political news of Pakistan as sample dataset. Bayesian Networks as an artificial intelligence approach has been employed in presented framework, since this is a powerful technique that can be applied to model uncertain domains. The results showed that our framework along with Bayesian Networks as decision support tool, predicted the political risk level with a high degree of accuracy.

Keywords: Bayesian Networks, Data mining, GECRframework, Predicting political risk.

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Authors: Sung-Hun Lee, Yun-Seong Lee, Jin-O Kim

Abstract:

Reliability Centered Maintenance(RCM) is one of most widely used methods in the modern power system to schedule a maintenance cycle and determine the priority of inspection. In order to apply the RCM method to the Smart Grid, a precedence study for the new structure of rearranged system should be performed due to introduction of additional installation such as renewable and sustainable energy resources, energy storage devices and advanced metering infrastructure. This paper proposes a new method to evaluate the priority of maintenance and inspection of the power system facilities in the Smart Grid using the Risk Priority Number. In order to calculate that risk index, it is required that the reliability block diagram should be analyzed for the Smart Grid system. Finally, the feasible technical method is discussed to estimate the risk potential as part of the RCM procedure.

Keywords: Expert System, FMECA, Fuzzy Theory, Reliability Centered Maintenance, Risk Priority Number

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Authors: Isabela Moreira Queiroz

Abstract:

Slope stability analyses are largely carried out by deterministic methods and evaluated through a single security factor. Although it is known that the geotechnical parameters can present great dispersal, such analyses are considered fixed and known. The probabilistic methods, in turn, incorporate the variability of input key parameters (random variables), resulting in a range of values of safety factors, thus enabling the determination of the probability of failure, which is an essential parameter in the calculation of the risk (probability multiplied by the consequence of the event). Among the probabilistic methods, there are three frequently used methods in geotechnical society: FOSM (First-Order, Second-Moment), Rosenblueth (Point Estimates) and Monte Carlo. This paper presents a comparison between the results from deterministic and probabilistic analyses (FOSM method, Monte Carlo and Rosenblueth) applied to a hypothetical slope. The end was held to evaluate the behavior of the slope and consequent risk analysis, which is used to calculate the risk and analyze their mitigation and control solutions. It can be observed that the results obtained by the three probabilistic methods were quite close. It should be noticed that the calculation of the risk makes it possible to list the priority to the implementation of mitigation measures. Therefore, it is recommended to do a good assessment of the geological-geotechnical model incorporating the uncertainty in viability, design, construction, operation and closure by means of risk management. 

Keywords: Probabilistic methods, risk assessment, risk management, slope stability.

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Authors: Marco Bötel, Tobias Gelau, Wendelin Gross

Abstract:

Supply chain networks are frequently hit by unplanned events which lead to disruptions and cause operational and financial consequences. It is neither possible to avoid disruption risk entirely, nor are network members able to prepare for every possible disruptive event. Therefore a continuity planning should be set up which supports effective operational responses in supply chain networks in times of emergencies. In this research network related degrees of freedom which determine the options for responsive actions are derived from interview data. The findings are further embedded into a common risk management process. The paper provides support for researchers and practitioners to identify the network related options for responsive actions and to determine the need for improving the reaction capabilities.

Keywords: Supply Chain Risk Management, Business Continuity Planning, Degrees of Freedom, Risk Management Process, Mitigation Measures.

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Authors: Anders Troedsson

Abstract:

For us humans, risk and insecurity are intimately linked to vulnerabilities - where there is vulnerability, there is potentially risk and insecurity. Reducing vulnerability through compensatory measures means decreasing the likelihood of a certain external event be qualified as a risk/threat/assault, and thus also means increasing the individual’s sense of security. The paper suggests that a meaningful way to approach the study of risk/ insecurity is to organize thinking about the vulnerabilities that external phenomena evoke in humans as perceived by them. Such phenomena are, through a set of given vulnerabilities, potentially translated into perceptions of "insecurity." An ontological discussion about salient timespace characteristics of external phenomena as perceived by humans, including such which potentially can be qualified as risk/threat/assault, leads to the positing of two dimensions which are central for describing what in the paper is called the essence of risk/threat/assault. As is argued, such modeling helps analysis steer free of the subjective factor which is intimately connected to human perception and which mediates between phenomena “out there” potentially identified as risk/threat/assault, and their translation into an experience of security or insecurity. A proposed set of universally given vulnerabilities are scrutinized with the help of the two dimensions, resulting in a modeling effort featuring four realms of vulnerabilities which together represent a dynamic whole. This model in turn informs modeling on human security.

Keywords: Human vulnerabilities, human security, inert-immediate, material-immaterial, timespace.

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Authors: Samad Jafarmadar, Amin Habibzadeh

Abstract:

A power and cooling cycle, which combines the organic Rankine cycle and the ejector refrigeration cycle supplied by waste heat energy sources, is discussed in this paper. 13 working fluids including wet, dry, and isentropic fluids are studied in order to find their performances on the combined cycle. Various operating conditions’ effects on the proposed cycle are examined by fixing power/refrigeration ratio. According to the results, dry and isentropic fluids have better performance compared with wet fluids.

Keywords: Combined power and refrigeration cycle, low temperature heat sources, organic rankine cycle, working fluids.

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Authors: A. Chakraborty, T. Gupta

Abstract:

Several studies have shown the association between ambient particulate matter (PM) and adverse health effects and climate change, thus highlighting the need to limit the anthropogenic sources of PM. PM Exposure is commonly monitored as mass concentration of PM10 (particle aerodynamic diameter < 10μm) or PM2.5 (particle aerodynamic diameter < 2.5μm), although increasing toxicity with decreasing aerodynamic diameter has been reported due to increased surface area and enhanced chemical reactivity with other species. Additionally, the light scattering properties of PM increases with decreasing size. Hence, it is important to study the chemical characterization of finer fraction of the particulate matter and to identify their sources so that they can be controlled appropriately to a large extent at the sources before reaching to the receptors.

Keywords: PM1, PCA, source apportionment.

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Authors: Chin Wen Cheong

Abstract:

This study employs a bivariate asymmetric GARCH model to reveal the hidden dynamics price changes and volatility among the emerging markets of Thailand and Malaysian after the Asian financial crisis from January 2001 to December 2008. Our results indicated that the equity markets are sharing the common information (shock) that transmitted among each others. These empirical findings are used to demonstrate the importance of shock and volatility dynamic transmissions in the cross-market hedging and market risk.

Keywords: multivariate ARCH, structural change, value at risk.

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Authors: Shaya Alshahrani

Abstract:

Perceived risks play a major role in consumer intentions, behaviors, attitudes, and decisions about online shopping in the KSA. This paper investigates the influence of six perceived risk dimensions on Saudi consumers: product risk, information risk, financial risk, privacy and security risk, delivery risk, and terms and conditions risk empirically. To ensure the success of this study, a random survey was distributed to reflect the consumers’ perceived risk and to enable the generalization of the results. Data were collected from 323 respondents in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA): 50 who had never shopped online and 273 who had done so. The results indicated that all six risks influenced the respondents’ perceptions of online shopping. The non-online shoppers perceived financial and delivery risks as the most significant barriers to online shopping. This was followed closely by performance, information, and privacy and security risks. Terms and conditions were perceived as less significant. The online consumers considered delivery and performance risks to be the most significant influences on internet shopping. This was followed closely by information and terms and conditions. Financial and privacy and security risks were perceived as less significant. This paper argues that introducing adequate legal solutions to addressing related problems arising from this study is an urgent need. This may enhance consumer trust in the KSA online market, increase consumers’ intentions regarding online shopping, and improve consumer protection.

Keywords: Perceived risk, consumer protection, online shopping, Saudi Arabia, online contracts, e-commerce.

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Authors: Mohamed Saad Ahmed Hussien

Abstract:

This paper discusses the risk management in Islamic banks and aims to determine the difference in the practices and methods of risk management in those banks compared to the conventional banks, and to make a case study of the biggest Islamic bank in Egypt (Faisal Islamic Bank of Egypt) to identify the most important financial risks faced and how to manage those risks. It was found that Islamic banks face two types of risks. The first type is similar to the risks in conventional banks; the second type is the additional risks which facing the Islamic banks only as a result of some Islamic modes of financing. With regard to the risk management, Islamic banks such as conventional banks applied the regulatory rules issued by the Central Banks and the Basel Committee; Islamic banks also applied the instructions and procedures issued by the Islamic Financial Services Board (IFSB). Also, Islamic banks are similar to the conventional banks in the practices and methods which they use to manage the risks. And there are some factors that may affect the risk management in Islamic banks, such as the size of the bank and the efficiency of the administration and the staff of the bank.

Keywords: Conventional banks, Faisal Islamic Bank of Egypt, Islamic banks, risk management.

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Authors: P. Vaculík, P. Kaňovský

Abstract:

The following article presents Technology Centre of Ostrava (TCO) in the Czech Republic describing the structure and main research areas realized by the project ENET - Energy Units for Utilization of non Traditional Energy Sources. More details are presented from the research program dealing with transformation, accumulation and distribution of electric energy. Technology Centre has its own energy mix consisting of alternative sources of fuel sources that use of process gases from the storage part and also the energy from distribution network. The article will be focus on the properties and application possibilities SiC semiconductor devices for power semiconductor converter for photovoltaic systems.

Keywords: SiC, Si, Technology Centre of Ostrava, Photovoltaic Systems, DC/DC Converter, Simulation.

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Authors: Youssef Khmou, Said Safi, Miloud Frikel

Abstract:

The Maximum entropy principle in spectral analysis was used as an estimator of Direction of Arrival (DoA) of electromagnetic or acoustic sources impinging on an array of sensors, indeed the maximum entropy operator is very efficient when the signals of the radiating sources are ergodic and complex zero mean random processes which is the case for cosmic sources. In this paper, we present basic review of the maximum entropy method (MEM) which consists of rank one operator but not a projector, and we elaborate a new operator which is full rank and sum of all possible projectors. Two dimensional Simulation results based on Monte Carlo trials prove the resolution power of the new operator where the MEM presents some erroneous fluctuations.

Keywords: Maximum entropy, Cosmic source, Localization, operator, projector, azimuth, elevation, DoA, circular array.

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Authors: Anca E. Gurzau, Alexandru Coman, Eugen S. Gurzau, Marinela Penes, Daniela Dumitrescu, DorinMarchean, Ioan Chera

Abstract:

The environment pollution with pesticides and heavy metals is a recognized problem nowadays, with extension to the global scale the tendency of amplification. Even with all the progress in the environmental field, both in the emphasize of the effect of the pollutants upon health, the linked studies environment-health are insufficient, not only in Romania but all over the world also. We aim to describe the particular situation in Romania regarding the uncontrolled use of pesticides, to identify and evaluate the risk zones for health and the environment in Romania, with the final goal of designing adequate programs for reduction and control of the risk sources. An exploratory study was conducted to determine the magnitude of the pesticide use problem in a population living in Saliste, a rural setting in Transylvania, Romania. The significant stakeholders in Saliste region were interviewed and a sample from the population living in Saliste area was selected to fill in a designed questionnaire. All the selected participants declared that they used pesticides in their activities for more than one purpose. They declared they annually applied pesticides for a period of time between 11 and 30 years, from 5 to 9 days per year on average, mainly on crops situated at some distance from the houses but high risk behavior was identified as the volunteers declared the use of pesticides in the backyard gardens, near their homes, where children were playing. The pesticide applicators did not have the necessary knowledge about safety and exposure. The health data must be correlated with exposure biomarkers in attempt to identify the possible health effects of the pesticides exposure. Future plans include educational campaigns to raise the awareness of the population on the danger of uncontrolled use of pesticides.

Keywords: Pesticides, health effects, Romania, Saliste.

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Authors: Taner Ersoz, Filiz Ersoz, Seyma Ozbilge

Abstract:

In this study, the clients who applied to a bank branch for loan were analyzed through data mining. The study was composed of the information such as amounts of loans received by personal and SME clients working with the bank branch, installment numbers, number of delays in loan installments, payments available in other banks and number of banks to which they are in debt between 2010 and 2013. The client risk profile was examined through Classification and Regression Tree (CART) analysis, one of the decision tree classification methods. At the end of the study, 5 different types of customers have been determined on the decision tree. The classification of these types of customers has been created with the rating of those posing a risk for the bank branch and the customers have been classified according to the risk ratings.

Keywords: Client classification, loan suitability, risk rating, CART analysis, decision tree.

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Authors: P. Pongsumpun

Abstract:

The Swine flu outbreak in humans is due to a new strain of influenza A virus subtype H1N1 that derives in part from human influenza, avian influenza, and two separated strains of swine influenza. It can be transmitted from human to human. A mathematical model for the transmission of Swine flu is developed in which the human populations are divided into two classes, the risk and non-risk human classes. Each class is separated into susceptible, exposed, infectious, quarantine and recovered sub-classes. In this paper, we formulate the dynamical model of Swine flu transmission and the repetitive contacts between the people are also considered. We analyze the behavior for the transmission of this disease. The Threshold condition of this disease is found and numerical results are shown to confirm our theoretical predictions.

Keywords: Mathematical model, Steady state, Swine flu, threshold condition.

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Authors: D. Jakovčević, M. Mihelja Žaja

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The purpose of this paper is to analyze the influence and relative share of underwriting risks in explaining the variation in insurance cycles in subsequent periods. Through the insurance contracts they underwrite, insurance companies assume risks. Underwriting risks include pricing risk, reserve risk, reinsurance risk and occurrence risk. These risks pose major risks for property and liability insurers, and therefore their impact on the insurance cycle is important. The main goal of this paper is to determine the relative proportion of underwriting risks in explaining the variation of insurance cycle. In order to fulfill the main goal of the paper vector autoregressive model, VAR, will be applied.

Keywords: Insurance cycle, insurance risks, combined ratio, Republic of Croatia.

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Authors: J. P. Dubois

Abstract:

Stochastic modeling of network traffic is an area of significant research activity for current and future broadband communication networks. Multimedia traffic is statistically characterized by a bursty variable bit rate (VBR) profile. In this paper, we develop an improved model for uniform activity level video sources in ATM using a doubly stochastic autoregressive model driven by an underlying spatial point process. We then examine a number of burstiness metrics such as the peak-to-average ratio (PAR), the temporal autocovariance function (ACF) and the traffic measurements histogram. We found that the former measure is most suitable for capturing the burstiness of single scene video traffic. In the last phase of this work, we analyse statistical multiplexing of several constant scene video sources. This proved, expectedly, to be advantageous with respect to reducing the burstiness of the traffic, as long as the sources are statistically independent. We observed that the burstiness was rapidly diminishing, with the largest gain occuring when only around 5 sources are multiplexed. The novel model used in this paper for characterizing uniform activity video was thus found to be an accurate model.

Keywords: AR, ATM, burstiness, doubly stochastic, statisticalmultiplexing.

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Authors: J. R. Wang, W. Y. Cheng, J. S. Yeh, S. W. Chen, Y. M. Ferng, J. H. Yang, W. S. Hsu, C. Shih

Abstract:

To understand the risk for dry storage concrete casks in the cask loading, transfer, and storage phase, the purpose of this research is to establish the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) analysis methodology for dry storage concrete casks by using SAPHIRE 8 code. This analysis methodology is used to perform the study of Taiwan nuclear power plants (NPPs) dry storage system. The process of research has three steps. First, the data of the concrete casks and Taiwan NPPs are collected. Second, the PRA analysis methodology is developed by using SAPHIRE 8. Third, the PRA analysis is performed by using this methodology. According to the analysis results, the maximum risk is the multipurpose canister (MPC) drop case.

Keywords: PRA, Dry storage, concrete cask, SAPHIRE.

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Authors: Mohsen Shirani, Micaela Demichela

Abstract:

During the last decades, a number of food crises such as Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE), Mad-Cow disease, Dioxin in chicken food, Food-and-Mouth Disease (FMD), have certainly inflected the reliability of the food industry. Consequently, the trend in applying different scientific methods of risk assessment in food safety has obtained more attentions in the academic and practice. However, lack of practical approach considering entire food supply chain is tangible in the academic literature. In this regard, this paper aims to apply risk assessment tool (FMEA) with integration of Human Factor along the entire supply chain of food production and test the method in a case study of Diary production, and analyze its results.

Keywords: Food Risk Assessment, FMEA, Human Factor.

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Authors: Ankit R Patel, Ankit A Patel, Mahesh A Patel, Dhaval R Vyas

Abstract:

Although lighting systems powered by Photovoltaic (PV) cells have existed for many years, they are not widely used, especially in lighting for buildings, due to their high initial cost and low conversion efficiency. One of the technical challenges facing PV powered lighting systems has been how to use dc power generated by the PV module to energize common light sources that are designed to operate efficiently under ac power. Usually, the efficiency of the dc light sources is very poor compared to ac light sources. Rapid developments in LED lighting systems have made this technology a potential candidate for PV powered lighting systems. This study analyzed the efficiency of each component of PV powered lighting systems to identify optimum system configurations for different applications.

Keywords: Energy Efficiency, LED, Modeling of systems, Photovoltaic.

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