Search results for: Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) model
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 8804

Search results for: Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) model

7154 Evaluation of Risk Attributes Driven by Periodically Changing System Functionality

Authors: Dariusz Dymek, Leszek Kotulski

Abstract:

Modeling of the distributed systems allows us to represent the whole its functionality. The working system instance rarely fulfils the whole functionality represented by model; usually some parts of this functionality should be accessible periodically. The reporting system based on the Data Warehouse concept seams to be an intuitive example of the system that some of its functionality is required only from time to time. Analyzing an enterprise risk associated with the periodical change of the system functionality, we should consider not only the inaccessibility of the components (object) but also their functions (methods), and the impact of such a situation on the system functionality from the business point of view. In the paper we suggest that the risk attributes should be estimated from risk attributes specified at the requirements level (Use Case in the UML model) on the base of the information about the structure of the model (presented at other levels of the UML model). We argue that it is desirable to consider the influence of periodical changes in requirements on the enterprise risk estimation. Finally, the proposition of such a solution basing on the UML system model is presented.

Keywords: Risk assessing, software maintenance, UML, graph grammars.

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7153 Spike Sorting Method Using Exponential Autoregressive Modeling of Action Potentials

Authors: Sajjad Farashi

Abstract:

Neurons in the nervous system communicate with each other by producing electrical signals called spikes. To investigate the physiological function of nervous system it is essential to study the activity of neurons by detecting and sorting spikes in the recorded signal. In this paper a method is proposed for considering the spike sorting problem which is based on the nonlinear modeling of spikes using exponential autoregressive model. The genetic algorithm is utilized for model parameter estimation. In this regard some selected model coefficients are used as features for sorting purposes. For optimal selection of model coefficients, self-organizing feature map is used. The results show that modeling of spikes with nonlinear autoregressive model outperforms its linear counterpart. Also the extracted features based on the coefficients of exponential autoregressive model are better than wavelet based extracted features and get more compact and well-separated clusters. In the case of spikes different in small-scale structures where principal component analysis fails to get separated clouds in the feature space, the proposed method can obtain well-separated cluster which removes the necessity of applying complex classifiers.

Keywords: Exponential autoregressive model, Neural data, spike sorting, time series modeling.

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7152 Finite Volume Method for Flow Prediction Using Unstructured Meshes

Authors: Juhee Lee, Yongjun Lee

Abstract:

In designing a low-energy-consuming buildings, the heat transfer through a large glass or wall becomes critical. Multiple layers of the window glasses and walls are employed for the high insulation. The gravity driven air flow between window glasses or wall layers is a natural heat convection phenomenon being a key of the heat transfer. For the first step of the natural heat transfer analysis, in this study the development and application of a finite volume method for the numerical computation of viscous incompressible flows is presented. It will become a part of the natural convection analysis with high-order scheme, multi-grid method, and dual-time step in the future. A finite volume method based on a fully-implicit second-order is used to discretize and solve the fluid flow on unstructured grids composed of arbitrary-shaped cells. The integrations of the governing equation are discretised in the finite volume manner using a collocated arrangement of variables. The convergence of the SIMPLE segregated algorithm for the solution of the coupled nonlinear algebraic equations is accelerated by using a sparse matrix solver such as BiCGSTAB. The method used in the present study is verified by applying it to some flows for which either the numerical solution is known or the solution can be obtained using another numerical technique available in the other researches. The accuracy of the method is assessed through the grid refinement.

Keywords: Finite volume method, fluid flow, laminar flow, unstructured grid.

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7151 Alertness States Classification By SOM and LVQ Neural Networks

Authors: K. Ben Khalifa, M.H. Bédoui, M. Dogui, F. Alexandre

Abstract:

Several studies have been carried out, using various techniques, including neural networks, to discriminate vigilance states in humans from electroencephalographic (EEG) signals, but we are still far from results satisfactorily useable results. The work presented in this paper aims at improving this status with regards to 2 aspects. Firstly, we introduce an original procedure made of the association of two neural networks, a self organizing map (SOM) and a learning vector quantization (LVQ), that allows to automatically detect artefacted states and to separate the different levels of vigilance which is a major breakthrough in the field of vigilance. Lastly and more importantly, our study has been oriented toward real-worked situation and the resulting model can be easily implemented as a wearable device. It benefits from restricted computational and memory requirements and data access is very limited in time. Furthermore, some ongoing works demonstrate that this work should shortly results in the design and conception of a non invasive electronic wearable device.

Keywords: Electroencephalogram interpretation, artificialneural networks, vigilance states, hardware implementation

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7150 Numerical Investigation of Improved Aerodynamic Performance of a NACA 0015 Airfoil Using Synthetic Jet

Authors: K. Boualem, T. Yahiaoui, A. Azzi

Abstract:

Numerical investigations are performed to analyze the flow behavior over NACA0015 and to evaluate the efficiency of synthetic jet as active control device. The second objective of this work is to investigate the influence of momentum coefficient of synthetic jet on the flow behaviour. The unsteady Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes equations of the turbulent flow are solved using, k-ω SST provided by ANSYS CFX-CFD code. The model presented in this paper is a comprehensive representation of the information found in the literature. Comparison of obtained numerical flow parameters with the experimental ones shows that the adopted computational procedure reflects nearly the real flow nature. Also, numerical results state that use of synthetic jets devices has positive effects on the flow separation, and thus, aerodynamic performance improvement of NACA0015 airfoil. It can also be observed that the use of synthetic jet increases the lift coefficient about 13.3% and reduces the drag coefficient about 52.7%.

Keywords: Active control, CFD, NACA airfoil, synthetic jet.

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7149 Interaction of Electroosmotic Flow on Isotachophoretic Transport of Ions

Authors: S. Bhattacharyya, Partha P. Gopmandal

Abstract:

A numerical study on the influence of electroosmotic flow on analyte preconcentration by isotachophoresis ( ITP) is made. We consider that the double layer induced electroosmotic flow ( EOF) counterbalance the electrophoretic velocity and a stationary ITP stacked zones results. We solve the Navier-Stokes equations coupled with the Nernst-Planck equations to determine the local convective velocity and the preconcentration dynamics of ions. Our numerical algorithm is based on a finite volume method along with a secondorder upwind scheme. The present numerical algorithm can capture the the sharp boundaries of step-changes ( plateau mode) or zones of steep gradients ( peak mode) accurately. The convection of ions due to EOF reduces the resolution of the ITP transition zones and produces a dispersion in analyte zones. The role of the electrokinetic parameters which induces dispersion is analyzed. A one-dimensional model for the area-averaged concentrations based on the Taylor-Aristype effective diffusivity is found to be in good agreement with the computed solutions.

Keywords: Interfaces, Electroosmotic flow, QUICK Scheme, Dispersion, Effective Diffusivity.

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7148 A Comparison of the Sum of Squares in Linear and Partial Linear Regression Models

Authors: Dursun Aydın

Abstract:

In this paper, estimation of the linear regression model is made by ordinary least squares method and the partially linear regression model is estimated by penalized least squares method using smoothing spline. Then, it is investigated that differences and similarity in the sum of squares related for linear regression and partial linear regression models (semi-parametric regression models). It is denoted that the sum of squares in linear regression is reduced to sum of squares in partial linear regression models. Furthermore, we indicated that various sums of squares in the linear regression are similar to different deviance statements in partial linear regression. In addition to, coefficient of the determination derived in linear regression model is easily generalized to coefficient of the determination of the partial linear regression model. For this aim, it is made two different applications. A simulated and a real data set are considered to prove the claim mentioned here. In this way, this study is supported with a simulation and a real data example.

Keywords: Partial Linear Regression Model, Linear RegressionModel, Residuals, Deviance, Smoothing Spline.

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7147 Parallel and Distributed Mining of Association Rule on Knowledge Grid

Authors: U. Sakthi, R. Hemalatha, R. S. Bhuvaneswaran

Abstract:

In Virtual organization, Knowledge Discovery (KD) service contains distributed data resources and computing grid nodes. Computational grid is integrated with data grid to form Knowledge Grid, which implements Apriori algorithm for mining association rule on grid network. This paper describes development of parallel and distributed version of Apriori algorithm on Globus Toolkit using Message Passing Interface extended with Grid Services (MPICHG2). The creation of Knowledge Grid on top of data and computational grid is to support decision making in real time applications. In this paper, the case study describes design and implementation of local and global mining of frequent item sets. The experiments were conducted on different configurations of grid network and computation time was recorded for each operation. We analyzed our result with various grid configurations and it shows speedup of computation time is almost superlinear.

Keywords: Association rule, Grid computing, Knowledge grid, Mobility prediction.

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7146 Model to Support Synchronous and Asynchronous in the Learning Process with An Adaptive Hypermedia System

Authors: Francisca Grimón, Marylin Giugni, Josep Monguet F., Joaquín Fernández, Luis León G.

Abstract:

In blended learning environments, the Internet can be combined with other technologies. The aim of this research was to design, introduce and validate a model to support synchronous and asynchronous activities by managing content domains in an Adaptive Hypermedia System (AHS). The application is based on information recovery techniques, clustering algorithms and adaptation rules to adjust the user's model to contents and objects of study. This system was applied to blended learning in higher education. The research strategy used was the case study method. Empirical studies were carried out on courses at two universities to validate the model. The results of this research show that the model had a positive effect on the learning process. The students indicated that the synchronous and asynchronous scenario is a good option, as it involves a combination of work with the lecturer and the AHS. In addition, they gave positive ratings to the system and stated that the contents were adapted to each user profile.

Keywords: Blended Learning, System Adaptive, Model, Clustering Algorithms.

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7145 Degradation Model of Optical Characteristics of Zno-Pigmented White Paint by Electron Radiation

Authors: Tian Hai, Yang Shengsheng, Jr., Wang Yi

Abstract:

Based on an analysis of the mechanism of degradation of optical characteristics of the ZnO-pigmented white paint by electron irradiation, a model of single molecular color centers is built. An equation that explains the relationship between the changes of variation of the ZnO-pigmented white paint-s spectrum absorptance and electron fluence is derived. The uncertain parameters in the equation can be calculated using the curve fitting by experimental data. The result indicates that the model can be applied to predict the degradation of optical characteristics of ZnO-pigmented white paint by electron radiation.

Keywords: ZnO-pigmented white pain, effects of electron radiation, optical characteristics degradation, prediction model.

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7144 3-D Numerical Model for Wave-Induced Seabed Response around an Offshore Pipeline

Authors: Zuodong Liang, Dong-Sheng Jeng

Abstract:

Seabed instability around an offshore pipeline is one of key factors that need to be considered in the design of offshore infrastructures. Unlike previous investigations, a three-dimensional numerical model for the wave-induced soil response around an offshore pipeline is proposed in this paper. The numerical model was first validated with 2-D experimental data available in the literature. Then, a parametric study will be carried out to examine the effects of wave, seabed characteristics and confirmation of pipeline. Numerical examples demonstrate significant influence of wave obliquity on the wave-induced pore pressures and the resultant seabed liquefaction around the pipeline, which cannot be observed in 2-D numerical simulation.

Keywords: Pore pressure, 3D wave model, seabed liquefaction, pipeline.

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7143 A Finite Element/Finite Volume Method for Dam-Break Flows over Deformable Beds

Authors: Alia Alghosoun, Ashraf Osman, Mohammed Seaid

Abstract:

A coupled two-layer finite volume/finite element method was proposed for solving dam-break flow problem over deformable beds. The governing equations consist of the well-balanced two-layer shallow water equations for the water flow and a linear elastic model for the bed deformations. Deformations in the topography can be caused by a brutal localized force or simply by a class of sliding displacements on the bathymetry. This deformation in the bed is a source of perturbations, on the water surface generating water waves which propagate with different amplitudes and frequencies. Coupling conditions at the interface are also investigated in the current study and two mesh procedure is proposed for the transfer of information through the interface. In the present work a new procedure is implemented at the soil-water interface using the finite element and two-layer finite volume meshes with a conservative distribution of the forces at their intersections. The finite element method employs quadratic elements in an unstructured triangular mesh and the finite volume method uses the Rusanove to reconstruct the numerical fluxes. The numerical coupled method is highly efficient, accurate, well balanced, and it can handle complex geometries as well as rapidly varying flows. Numerical results are presented for several test examples of dam-break flows over deformable beds. Mesh convergence study is performed for both methods, the overall model provides new insight into the problems at minimal computational cost.

Keywords: Dam-break flows, deformable beds, finite element method, finite volume method, linear elasticity, Shallow water equations.

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7142 Quality of Service Evaluation using a Combination of Fuzzy C-Means and Regression Model

Authors: Aboagela Dogman, Reza Saatchi, Samir Al-Khayatt

Abstract:

In this study, a network quality of service (QoS) evaluation system was proposed. The system used a combination of fuzzy C-means (FCM) and regression model to analyse and assess the QoS in a simulated network. Network QoS parameters of multimedia applications were intelligently analysed by FCM clustering algorithm. The QoS parameters for each FCM cluster centre were then inputted to a regression model in order to quantify the overall QoS. The proposed QoS evaluation system provided valuable information about the network-s QoS patterns and based on this information, the overall network-s QoS was effectively quantified.

Keywords: Fuzzy C-means; regression model, network quality of service

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7141 Positive Periodic Solutions for a Predator-prey Model with Modified Leslie-Gower Holling-type II Schemes and a Deviating Argument

Authors: Yanling Zhu, Kai Wang

Abstract:

In this paper, by utilizing the coincidence degree theorem a predator-prey model with modified Leslie-Gower Hollingtype II schemes and a deviating argument is studied. Some sufficient conditions are obtained for the existence of positive periodic solutions of the model.

Keywords: Predator-prey model, Holling II type functional response, positive periodic solution, coincidence degree theorem.

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7140 Speed Sensorless Control with a Linearizationby State Feedback of Asynchronous Machine Using a Model Reference Adaptive System

Authors: A. Larabi, M. S. Boucherit

Abstract:

In this paper, we show that the association of the PI regulators for the speed and stator currents with a control strategy using the linearization by state feedback for an induction machine without speed sensor, and with an adaptation of the rotor resistance. The rotor speed is estimated by using the model reference adaptive system approach (MRAS). This method consists of using two models: The first is the reference model and the second is an adjustable one in which two components of the stator flux, obtained from the measurement of the currents and stator voltages are estimated. The estimated rotor speed is then obtained by canceling the difference between stator-flux of the reference model and those of the adjustable one. Satisfactory results of simulation are obtained and discussed in this paper to highlight the proposed approach.

Keywords: Asynchronous actuator, PI Regulator, adaptivemethod with reference model, Vector control.

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7139 A New Model for Production Forecasting in ERP

Authors: S. F. Wong, W. I. Ho, B. Lin, Q. Huang

Abstract:

ERP has been used in many enterprises for management, the accuracy of the production forecasting module is vital to the decision making of the enterprise, and the profit is affected directly. Therefore, enhancing the accuracy of the production forecasting module can also increase the efficiency and profitability. To deal with a lot of data, a suitable, reliable and accurate statistics model is necessary. LSSVM and Grey System are two main models to be studied in this paper, and a case study is used to demonstrate how the combination model is effective to the result of forecasting.

Keywords: ERP, Grey System, LSSVM, production forecasting.

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7138 Bifurcations of a Delayed Prototype Model

Authors: Changjin Xu

Abstract:

In this paper, a delayed prototype model is studied. Regarding the delay as a bifurcation parameter, we prove that a sequence of Hopf bifurcations will occur at the positive equilibrium when the delay increases. Using the normal form method and center manifold theory, some explicit formulae are worked out for determining the stability and the direction of the bifurcated periodic solutions. Finally, Computer simulations are carried out to explain some mathematical conclusions.

Keywords: Prototype model, Stability, Hopf bifurcation, Delay, Periodic solution.

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7137 Pure and Mixed Nash Equilibria Domain of a Discrete Game Model with Dichotomous Strategy Space

Authors: A. S. Mousa, F. Shoman

Abstract:

We present a discrete game theoretical model with homogeneous individuals who make simultaneous decisions. In this model the strategy space of all individuals is a discrete and dichotomous set which consists of two strategies. We fully characterize the coherent, split and mixed strategies that form Nash equilibria and we determine the corresponding Nash domains for all individuals. We find all strategic thresholds in which individuals can change their mind if small perturbations in the parameters of the model occurs.

Keywords: Coherent strategy, split strategy, pure strategy, mixed strategy, Nash Equilibrium, game theory.

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7136 A Stochastic Analytic Hierarchy Process Based Weighting Model for Sustainability Measurement in an Organization

Authors: Faramarz Khosravi, Gokhan Izbirak

Abstract:

A weighted statistical stochastic based Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) model for modeling the potential barriers and enablers of sustainability for measuring and assessing the sustainability level is proposed. For context-dependent potential barriers and enablers, the proposed model takes the basis of the properties of the variables describing the sustainability functions and was developed into a realistic analytical model for the sustainable behavior of an organization. This thus serves as a means for measuring the sustainability of the organization. The main focus of this paper was the application of the AHP tool in a statistically-based model for measuring sustainability. Hence a strong weighted stochastic AHP based procedure was achieved. A case study scenario of a widely reported major Canadian electric utility was adopted to demonstrate the applicability of the developed model and comparatively examined its results with those of an equal-weighted model method. Variations in the sustainability of a company, as fluctuations, were figured out during the time. In the results obtained, sustainability index for successive years changed form 73.12%, 79.02%, 74.31%, 76.65%, 80.49%, 79.81%, 79.83% to more exact values 73.32%, 77.72%, 76.76%, 79.41%, 81.93%, 79.72%, and 80,45% according to priorities of factors that have found by expert views, respectively. By obtaining relatively necessary informative measurement indicators, the model can practically and effectively evaluate the sustainability extent of any organization and also to determine fluctuations in the organization over time.

Keywords: AHP, sustainability fluctuation, environmental indicators, performance measurement, environmental sustainability.

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7135 Generic Model for Timetabling Problems by Integer Linear Programming Approach

Authors: N. A. H. Aizam, V. Uvaraja

Abstract:

The agenda of showing the scheduled time for performing certain tasks is known as timetabling. It is widely used in many departments such as transportation, education, and production. Some difficulties arise to ensure all tasks happen in the time and place allocated. Therefore, many researchers invented various programming models to solve the scheduling problems from several fields. However, the studies in developing the general integer programming model for many timetabling problems are still questionable. Meanwhile, this thesis describes about creating a general model which solves different types of timetabling problems by considering the basic constraints. Initially, the common basic constraints from five different fields are selected and analyzed. A general basic integer programming model was created and then verified by using the medium set of data obtained randomly which is much similar to realistic data. The mathematical software, AIMMS with CPLEX as a solver has been used to solve the model. The model obtained is significant in solving many timetabling problems easily since it is modifiable to all types of scheduling problems which have same basic constraints.

Keywords: AIMMS mathematical software, integer linear programming, scheduling problems, timetabling.

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7134 An Improved Conjugate Gradient Based Learning Algorithm for Back Propagation Neural Networks

Authors: N. M. Nawi, R. S. Ransing, M. R. Ransing

Abstract:

The conjugate gradient optimization algorithm is combined with the modified back propagation algorithm to yield a computationally efficient algorithm for training multilayer perceptron (MLP) networks (CGFR/AG). The computational efficiency is enhanced by adaptively modifying initial search direction as described in the following steps: (1) Modification on standard back propagation algorithm by introducing a gain variation term in the activation function, (2) Calculation of the gradient descent of error with respect to the weights and gains values and (3) the determination of a new search direction by using information calculated in step (2). The performance of the proposed method is demonstrated by comparing accuracy and computation time with the conjugate gradient algorithm used in MATLAB neural network toolbox. The results show that the computational efficiency of the proposed method was better than the standard conjugate gradient algorithm.

Keywords: Adaptive gain variation, back-propagation, activation function, conjugate gradient, search direction.

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7133 Stability Analysis of a Human-Mosquito Model of Malaria with Infective Immigrants

Authors: Nisha Budhwar, Sunita Daniel

Abstract:

In this paper, we analyse the stability of the SEIR model of malaria with infective immigrants which was recently formulated by the authors. The model consists of an SEIR model for the human population and SI Model for the mosquitoes. Susceptible humans become infected after they are bitten by infectious mosquitoes and move on to the Exposed, Infected and Recovered classes respectively. The susceptible mosquito becomes infected after biting an infected person and remains infected till death. We calculate the reproduction number R0 using the next generation method and then discuss about the stability of the equilibrium points. We use the Lyapunov function to show the global stability of the equilibrium points.

Keywords: Susceptible, exposed, infective, recovered, infective immigrants, reproduction number, Lyapunov function, equilibrium points, global stability.

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7132 Forecasting the Influences of Information and Communication Technology on the Structural Changes of Japanese Industrial Sectors: A Study Using Statistical Analysis

Authors: Ubaidillah Zuhdi, Shunsuke Mori, Kazuhisa Kamegai

Abstract:

The purpose of this study is to forecast the influences of information and communication technology (ICT) on the structural changes of Japanese economies. In this study, input-output (IO) and statistical approaches are used as analysis instruments. More specifically, this study employs Leontief IO coefficients and constrained multivariate regression (CMR) model in order to achieve the purpose. The periods of initial and forecast in this study are 2005 and 2015, respectively. In this study, ICT is represented by ICT capital stocks. This study conducts two levels of analysis, namely macro and micro. The results of macro level analysis show that the dynamics of Japanese economies on the forecast period, relative to the initial period, are not so high. We focus on (1) commerce, (2) business services and office supplies, and (3) personal services sectors when conducting the analysis of the micro level. Further, we analyze its specific IO coefficients when doing this analysis. The results of the analysis explain that ICT gives a strong influence on the changes of these coefficients from initial to forecast periods.

Keywords: Forecast, ICT, Structural changes, Japanese economies.

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7131 Port Governance in Santos, Brazil: A Qualitative Approach

Authors: Guilherme B. B. Vieira, Rafael M. da Silva, Eliana T. P. Senna, Luiz A. S. Senna, Francisco J. Kliemann Neto

Abstract:

Given the importance of ports as links in the global supply chains and because they are key elements to induce competitiveness in their hinterlands, the number of studies devoted to port governance, management and operations has increased in the last decades. Some of these studies address the port governance model as an element to improve coordination among the actors of the portlogistics chain and to generate a better port performance. In this context, the present study analyzes the governance of Port of Santos through individual interviews with port managers, based on a conceptual model that considers the key dimensions associated with port governance. The results reinforce the usefulness of the applied model and highlight some existing improvement opportunities in the port studied.

Keywords: Port Governance, Model, Port of Santos, Managers’ Perception.

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7130 Numerical Simulation of Progressive Collapse for a Reinforced Concrete Building

Authors: Han-Soo Kim, Jae-Gyun Ahn, Hyo-Seung Ahn

Abstract:

Though nonlinear dynamic analysis using a specialized hydro-code such as AUTODYN is accurate and useful tool for progressive collapse assessment of a multi-story building subjected to blast load, it takes too much time to be applied to a practical simulation of progressive collapse of a tall building. In this paper, blast analysis of a RC frame structure using a simplified model with Reinforcement Contact technique provided in Ansys Workbench was introduced and investigated on its accuracy. Even though the simplified model has a fraction of elements of the detailed model, the simplified model with this modeling technique shows similar structural behavior under the blast load to the detailed model. The proposed modeling method can be effectively applied to blast loading progressive collapse analysis of a RC frame structure.

Keywords: Autodyn, Blast Load, Progressive Collapse, Reinforcement Contact.

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7129 A New SIR-based Model for Influenza Epidemic

Authors: Kang-Hung Yang, Jin-Yuan Hsu

Abstract:

In recent years, several severe large-scale influenza outbreaks happened in many countries, such as SARS in 2005 or H1N1 in 2009. Those influenza Epidemics have greatly impacts not only on people-s life and health, but medical systems in different countries. Although severe diseases are more experienced, they are not fully controlled. Governments have different policies to control the spreads of diseases. However, those policies have both positive and negative social or economical influence on people and society. Therefore, it is necessary and essential to develop an appropriate model for evaluations of policies. Consequently, a proper measure can be implemented to confront the diseases. The main goal of this study is to develop a SIR-based model for the further evaluations of the candidate policies during the influenza outbreaks.

Keywords: SIR, influenza, systems dynamic model, H1N1

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7128 Computing Transition Intensity Using Time-Homogeneous Markov Jump Process: Case of South African HIV/AIDS Disposition

Authors: A. Bayaga

Abstract:

This research provides a technical account of estimating Transition Probability using Time-homogeneous Markov Jump Process applying by South African HIV/AIDS data from the Statistics South Africa. It employs Maximum Likelihood Estimator (MLE) model to explore the possible influence of Transition Probability of mortality cases in which case the data was based on actual Statistics South Africa. This was conducted via an integrated demographic and epidemiological model of South African HIV/AIDS epidemic. The model was fitted to age-specific HIV prevalence data and recorded death data using MLE model. Though the previous model results suggest HIV in South Africa has declined and AIDS mortality rates have declined since 2002 – 2013, in contrast, our results differ evidently with the generally accepted HIV models (Spectrum/EPP and ASSA2008) in South Africa. However, there is the need for supplementary research to be conducted to enhance the demographic parameters in the model and as well apply it to each of the nine (9) provinces of South Africa.

Keywords: AIDS mortality rates, Epidemiological model, Time-homogeneous Markov Jump Process, Transition Probability, Statistics South Africa.

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7127 Artificial Visual Percepts for Image Understanding

Authors: Jeewanee Bamunusinghe, Damminda Alahakoon

Abstract:

Visual inputs are one of the key sources from which humans perceive the environment and 'understand' what is happening. Artificial systems perceive the visual inputs as digital images. The images need to be processed and analysed. Within the human brain, processing of visual inputs and subsequent development of perception is one of its major functionalities. In this paper we present part of our research project, which aims at the development of an artificial model for visual perception (or 'understanding') based on the human perceptive and cognitive systems. We propose a new model for perception from visual inputs and a way of understaning or interpreting images using the model. We demonstrate the implementation and use of the model with a real image data set.

Keywords: Image understanding, percept, visual perception.

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7126 A Study on Metal Hexagonal Honeycomb Crushing Under Quasi-Static Loading

Authors: M. Zarei Mahmoudabadi, M. Sadighi

Abstract:

In the study of honeycomb crushing under quasistatic loading, two parameters are important, the mean crushing stress and the wavelength of the folding mode. The previous theoretical models did not consider the true cylindrical curvature effects and the flow stress in the folding mode of honeycomb material. The present paper introduces a modification on Wierzbicki-s model based on considering two above mentioned parameters in estimating the mean crushing stress and the wavelength through implementation of the energy method. Comparison of the results obtained by the new model and Wierzbicki-s model with existing experimental data shows better prediction by the model presented in this paper.

Keywords: Crush strength, Flow stress, Honeycomb, Quasistatic load.

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7125 Optimized Calculation of Hourly Price Forward Curve (HPFC)

Authors: Ahmed Abdolkhalig

Abstract:

This paper examines many mathematical methods for molding the hourly price forward curve (HPFC); the model will be constructed by numerous regression methods, like polynomial regression, radial basic function neural networks & a furrier series. Examination the models goodness of fit will be done by means of statistical & graphical tools. The criteria for choosing the model will depend on minimize the Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), using the correlation analysis approach for the regression analysis the optimal model will be distinct, which are robust against model misspecification. Learning & supervision technique employed to determine the form of the optimal parameters corresponding to each measure of overall loss. By using all the numerical methods that mentioned previously; the explicit expressions for the optimal model derived and the optimal designs will be implemented.

Keywords: Forward curve, furrier series, regression, radial basic function neural networks.

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