Search results for: regression models
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 3050

Search results for: regression models

1490 An Improved Limited Tolerance Rough Set Model

Authors: Chen Wu, Komal Narejo, Dandan Li

Abstract:

Some extended rough set models in incomplete information system cannot distinguish the two objects that have few known attributes and more unknown attributes; some cannot make a flexible and accurate discrimination. In order to solve this problem, this paper suggests an improved limited tolerance rough set model using two thresholds to control what two objects have a relationship between them in limited tolerance relation and to classify objects. Our practical study case shows the model can get fine and reasonable decision results.

Keywords: Decision rule, incomplete information system, limited tolerance relation, rough set model.

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1489 An In-Depth Inquiry into the Impact of Poor Teacher-Student Relationships on Chronic Absenteeism in Secondary Schools of West Java Province, Indonesia

Authors: Yenni Anggrayni

Abstract:

The lack of awareness of the significant prevalence of school absenteeism in Indonesia, which ultimately results in high rates of school dropouts, is an unresolved issue. Therefore, this study aims to investigate the root causes of chronic absenteeism qualitatively and quantitatively using the bioecological systems paradigm in secondary schools for any reason. This study used an open-ended questionnaire to collect data from 1,148 students in six West Java Province districts/cities. Univariate and stepwise multiple logistic regression analyses produced a prediction model for the components. Analysis results show that poor teacher-student relationships, bullying by peers or teachers, negative perception of education, and lack of parental involvement in learning activities are the leading causes of chronic absenteeism. Another finding is to promote home-school partnerships to improve school climate and parental involvement in learning to address chronic absenteeism.

Keywords: Bullying, chronic absenteeism, dropout of school, home-school partnerships, parental involvement.

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1488 Cross-Cultural Strategies for Web Design

Authors: Armando Calabrese, Guendalina Capece, Michele Corbò, Nathan Levialdi Ghiron, Matteo M. Marucchi

Abstract:

People from different cultures favor web pages characterized by the values of their culture and, therefore, tend to prefer different characteristics of a website according to their cultural values in terms of navigation, security, product information, customer service, shopping and design tools. For a company aiming to globalize its market it is useful to implement country specific cultural interfaces and different web sites for countries with different cultures. This paper, following the conclusions proposed by two models of Hall and Hofstede, and the studies of Marcus and Gould, defines, through an empirical analysis, the guidelines of web design for both the Scandinavian countries and Malaysia.

Keywords: Cultural dimensions, cultural markers, Hofstede, web design, web marketing.

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1487 Development and Validation of an Instrument Measuring the Coping Strategies in Situations of Stress

Authors: Lucie Côté, Martin Lauzier, Guy Beauchamp, France Guertin

Abstract:

Stress causes deleterious effects to the physical, psychological and organizational levels, which highlight the need to use effective coping strategies to deal with it. Several coping models exist, but they don’t integrate the different strategies in a coherent way nor do they take into account the new research on the emotional coping and acceptance of the stressful situation. To fill these gaps, an integrative model incorporating the main coping strategies was developed. This model arises from the review of the scientific literature on coping and from a qualitative study carried out among workers with low or high levels of stress, as well as from an analysis of clinical cases. The model allows one to understand under what circumstances the strategies are effective or ineffective and to learn how one might use them more wisely. It includes Specific Strategies in controllable situations (the Modification of the Situation and the Resignation-Disempowerment), Specific Strategies in non-controllable situations (Acceptance and Stubborn Relentlessness) as well as so-called General Strategies (Wellbeing and Avoidance). This study is intended to undertake and present the process of development and validation of an instrument to measure coping strategies based on this model. An initial pool of items has been generated from the conceptual definitions and three expert judges have validated the content. Of these, 18 items have been selected for a short form questionnaire. A sample of 300 students and employees from a Quebec university was used for the validation of the questionnaire. Concerning the reliability of the instrument, the indices observed following the inter-rater agreement (Krippendorff’s alpha) and the calculation of the coefficients for internal consistency (Cronbach's alpha) are satisfactory. To evaluate the construct validity, a confirmatory factor analysis using MPlus supports the existence of a model with six factors. The results of this analysis suggest also that this configuration is superior to other alternative models. The correlations show that the factors are only loosely related to each other. Overall, the analyses carried out suggest that the instrument has good psychometric qualities and demonstrates the relevance of further work to establish predictive validity and reconfirm its structure. This instrument will help researchers and clinicians better understand and assess coping strategies to cope with stress and thus prevent mental health issues.

Keywords: Acceptance, coping strategies, measurement instrument, questionnaire, stress, validation process.

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1486 A new Cellular Automata Model of Cardiac Action Potential Propagation based on Summation of Excited Neighbors

Authors: F. Pourhasanzade, S. H. Sabzpoushan

Abstract:

The heart tissue is an excitable media. A Cellular Automata is a type of model that can be used to model cardiac action potential propagation. One of the advantages of this approach against the methods based on differential equations is its high speed in large scale simulations. Recent cellular automata models are not able to avoid flat edges in the result patterns or have large neighborhoods. In this paper, we present a new model to eliminate flat edges by minimum number of neighbors.

Keywords: Cellular Automata, Action Potential Simulation, Isotropic Pattern.

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1485 The Sign in the Communication Process

Authors: S. Pesina, T. Solonchak

Abstract:

In the process of information transmission (concept verbalization) we deal mostly with the substance (contents), and then pay attention to the form. Recalling events from the remote past, often we cannot exactly reproduce specific heard or pronounced words, as well as the syntactic structures. We remember events, feelings, images; we recall the general contents of the discourse. The thought gets a specific language form only during the concept verbalization phase. With minimum time for pondering, depending on the language competence level, the grammar and syntactic shaping often occurs automatically with the use of famous models and stereotypes. This means that the language form adapts itself to the consciousness, and not vice versa.

Keywords: Lexical eidos, phenomenology, noema, polysemantic word, semantic core.

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1484 Quantification of Peptides based on Isotope Dilution Surface Enhanced Raman Scattering

Authors: F. Yaghobian, R. Stosch, B. Güttler

Abstract:

This study aims to demonstrate the quantification of peptides based on isotope dilution surface enhanced Raman scattering (IDSERS). SERS spectra of phenylalanine (Phe), leucine (Leu) and two peptide sequences TGQIFK (T13) and YSFLQNPQTSLCFSESIPTPSNR (T6) as part of the 22-kDa human growth hormone (hGH) were obtained on Ag-nanoparticle covered substrates. On the basis of the dominant Phe and Leu vibrational modes, precise partial least squares (PLS) prediction models were built enabling the determination of unknown T13 and T6 concentrations. Detection of hGH in its physiological concentration in order to investigate the possibility of protein quantification has been achieved.

Keywords: Surface Enhanced Raman Scattering, Quantification, Peptides.

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1483 A Contribution to 3D Modeling of Manufacturing Tolerance Optimization

Authors: F. Sebaa, A. Cheikh, M. Rahou

Abstract:

The study of the generated defects on manufactured parts shows the difficulty to maintain parts in their positions during the machining process and to estimate them during the pre-process plan. This work presents a contribution to the development of 3D models for the optimization of the manufacturing tolerances. An experimental study allows the measurement of the defects of part positioning for the determination of ε and the choice of an optimal setup of the part. An approach of 3D tolerance based on the small displacements method permits the determination of the manufacturing errors upstream. A developed tool, allows an automatic generation of the tolerance intervals along the three axes.

Keywords: Manufacturing tolerances, 3D modeling, optimization, errors.

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1482 Using Statistical Significance and Prediction to Test Long/Short Term Public Services and Patients Cohorts: A Case Study in Scotland

Authors: Sotirios Raptis

Abstract:

Health and Social care (HSc) services planning and scheduling are facing unprecedented challenges, due to the pandemic pressure and also suffer from unplanned spending that is negatively impacted by the global financial crisis. Data-driven approaches can help to improve policies, plan and design services provision schedules using algorithms that assist healthcare managers to face unexpected demands using fewer resources. The paper discusses services packing using statistical significance tests and machine learning (ML) to evaluate demands similarity and coupling. This is achieved by predicting the range of the demand (class) using ML methods such as Classification and Regression Trees (CART), Random Forests (RF), and Logistic Regression (LGR). The significance tests Chi-Squared and Student’s test are used on data over a 39 years span for which data exist for services delivered in Scotland. The demands are associated using probabilities and are parts of statistical hypotheses. These hypotheses, as their NULL part, assume that the target demand is statistically dependent on other services’ demands. This linking is checked using the data. In addition, ML methods are used to linearly predict the above target demands from the statistically found associations and extend the linear dependence of the target’s demand to independent demands forming, thus, groups of services. Statistical tests confirmed ML coupling and made the prediction statistically meaningful and proved that a target service can be matched reliably to other services while ML showed that such marked relationships can also be linear ones. Zero padding was used for missing years records and illustrated better such relationships both for limited years and for the entire span offering long-term data visualizations while limited years periods explained how well patients numbers can be related in short periods of time or that they can change over time as opposed to behaviours across more years. The prediction performance of the associations were measured using metrics such as Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC), Area Under Curve (AUC) and Accuracy (ACC) as well as the statistical tests Chi-Squared and Student. Co-plots and comparison tables for the RF, CART, and LGR methods as well as the p-value from tests and Information Exchange (IE/MIE) measures are provided showing the relative performance of ML methods and of the statistical tests as well as the behaviour using different learning ratios. The impact of k-neighbours classification (k-NN), Cross-Correlation (CC) and C-Means (CM) first groupings was also studied over limited years and for the entire span. It was found that CART was generally behind RF and LGR but in some interesting cases, LGR reached an AUC = 0 falling below CART, while the ACC was as high as 0.912 showing that ML methods can be confused by zero-padding or by data’s irregularities or by the outliers. On average, 3 linear predictors were sufficient, LGR was found competing well RF and CART followed with the same performance at higher learning ratios. Services were packed only when a significance level (p-value) of their association coefficient was more than 0.05. Social factors relationships were observed between home care services and treatment of old people, low birth weights, alcoholism, drug abuse, and emergency admissions. The work found  that different HSc services can be well packed as plans of limited duration, across various services sectors, learning configurations, as confirmed by using statistical hypotheses.

Keywords: Class, cohorts, data frames, grouping, prediction, probabilities, services.

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1481 A New Time Dependent, High Temperature Analytical Model for the Single-electron Box in Digital Applications

Authors: M.J. Sharifi

Abstract:

Several models have been introduced so far for single electron box, SEB, which all of them were restricted to DC response and or low temperature limit. In this paper we introduce a new time dependent, high temperature analytical model for SEB for the first time. DC behavior of the introduced model will be verified against SIMON software and its time behavior will be verified against a newly published paper regarding step response of SEB.

Keywords: Single electron box, SPICE, SIMON, Timedependent, Circuit model.

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1480 Analyzing Disclosure Practice of Religious Nonprofit Organizations using Partial Disclosure Index

Authors: Ruhaya Atan, Saunah Zainon, Roland Yeow Theng Nam, Sharifah Aliman

Abstract:

This study examines the relevance of disclosure practices in improving the accountability and transparency of religious nonprofit organizations (RNPOs). The assessment of disclosure is based on the annual returns of RNPOs for the financial year 2010. In order to quantify the information disclosed in the annual returns, partial disclosure indexes of basic information (BI) disclosure index, financial information (FI) disclosure index and governance information (GI) disclosure index have been built which takes into account the content of information items in the annual returns. The empirical evidence obtained revealed low disclosure practices among RNPOs in the sample. The multiple regression results showed that the organizational attribute of the board size appeared to be the most significant predictor for both partial index on the extent of BI disclosure index, and FI disclosure index. On the other hand, the extent of financial information disclosure is related to the amount of donation received by RNPOs. On GI disclosure index, the existence of an external audit appeared to be significant variable. This study has contributed to the academic literature in providing empirical evidence of the disclosure practices among RNPOs.

Keywords: disclosure, index, partial, NPOs, religious

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1479 The Impact of Bank Consolidation on the Performance of SMES in Nigeria

Authors: Okolo Chimaobi Valentine

Abstract:

This paper seeks to assess the implications of bank consolidation on the performance of small and medium scale enterprises in the Nigerian economy. Multiple linear regression technique and correlation matrix test were employed to measure the extent to which small and medium scale enterprises asset size, survival and access to credit were influenced. The result showed that bank deposit (BD) and bank credit (L or BC) impacted on asset size and survival of small and medium scale enterprises. None of the variables had significant impact on SMEs access to credit. There is a shift of focus by commercial banks away from small and medium scale enterprises (small customers), which is evidenced by the significant negative influence of bank credit to both the survival and asset size of small and medium enterprises. While micro finance banks work hard at providing funds to small and medium scale entrepreneurs, their capacity to meet the needs of these entrepreneurs is constrained. CBN should make policies that will boost micro finance bank’s capital and also monitor closely the management of the banks to ensure prudent financing of small and medium scale investments.

Keywords: Bank consolidation, small and medium enterprises.

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1478 Locus of Control, Emotion Venting Strategy and Internet Addiction

Authors: Jia-Ru Li, Chih-Hung Wang, Ching-Wen Lin

Abstract:

Internet addiction has become a critical problem on adolescents in Taiwan, and its negative effects on various dimensions of adolescent development caught the attention of educational and psychological experts. This study examined the correlation between cognitive (locus of control) and emotion (emotion venting strategies) factors on internet addiction of adolescents in Taiwan. Using the Compulsive Internet Use (CIU) and the Emotion Venting Strategy scales, a survey was conducted and 215 effective samples (students ranging from12 to14 years old) returned. Quantitative analysis methods such as descriptive statistics, t-test, ANOVA, Pearson correlations and multiple regression were adopted. The results were as follows: 1. Severity of Internet addiction has significant gender differences; boys were at a higher risk than girls in becoming addicted to the Internet. 2. Emotion venting, locus of control and internet addiction have been shown to be positive correlated with one another. 3. Setting the locus of control as the control variable, emotion venting strategy has positive and significant contribution to internet addiction. The results of this study suggest that coaching deconstructive emotion strategies and cognitive believes are encouraged to integrate with actual field work.

Keywords: Emotion venting strategy, locus of control, adolescent internet addiction.

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1477 Removal of Basic Blue 3 from Aqueous Solution by Adsorption Onto Durio Ziberthinus

Authors: Siew-Teng

Abstract:

Durian husk (DH), a fruit waste, was studied for its ability to remove Basic blue 3 (BB3) from aqueous solutions. Batch kinetic studies were carried out to study the sorption characteristics under various experimental conditions. The optimum pH for the dye removal occurred in the pH range of 3-10. Sorption was found to be concentration and agitation dependent. The kinetics of dye sorption fitted a pseudo-second order rate expression. Both Langmuir and Freundlich models appeared to provide reasonable fittings for the sorption data of BB3 on durian husk. Maximum sorption capacity calculated from the Langmuir model is 49.50 mg g-1.

Keywords: Durian husk, Batch study, Sorption, Basic Blue 3

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1476 Decomposition Method for Neural Multiclass Classification Problem

Authors: H. El Ayech, A. Trabelsi

Abstract:

In this article we are going to discuss the improvement of the multi classes- classification problem using multi layer Perceptron. The considered approach consists in breaking down the n-class problem into two-classes- subproblems. The training of each two-class subproblem is made independently; as for the phase of test, we are going to confront a vector that we want to classify to all two classes- models, the elected class will be the strongest one that won-t lose any competition with the other classes. Rates of recognition gotten with the multi class-s approach by two-class-s decomposition are clearly better that those gotten by the simple multi class-s approach.

Keywords: Artificial neural network, letter-recognition, Multi class Classification, Multi Layer Perceptron.

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1475 Forecasting the Istanbul Stock Exchange National 100 Index Using an Artificial Neural Network

Authors: Birol Yildiz, Abdullah Yalama, Metin Coskun

Abstract:

Many studies have shown that Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) have been widely used for forecasting financial markets, because of many financial and economic variables are nonlinear, and an ANN can model flexible linear or non-linear relationship among variables. The purpose of the study was to employ an ANN models to predict the direction of the Istanbul Stock Exchange National 100 Indices (ISE National-100). As a result of this study, the model forecast the direction of the ISE National-100 to an accuracy of 74, 51%.

Keywords: Artificial Neural Networks, Istanbul StockExchange, Non-linear Modeling.

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1474 Identification of an Unstable Nonlinear System: Quadrotor

Authors: Mauricio Pe˜na, Adriana Luna, Carol Rodr´ıguez

Abstract:

In the following article we begin from a multi-parameter unstable nonlinear model of a Quadrotor. We design a control to stabilize and assure the attitude of the device, starting off a linearized system at the equilibrium point of the null angles of Euler (hover), which provides us a control with limited capacities at small angles of rotation of the vehicle in three dimensions. In order to clear this obstacle, we propose the identification of models in different angles by means of simulations and the design of a controller specifically implemented for the identification task, that in future works will allow the development of controllers according to fast and agile angles of Euler for Quadrotor.

Keywords: Quadrotor, model, control, identification.

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1473 Calculation of Wave Function at the Origin (WFO) for Heavy Mesons by Numerical Solving of the Schrodinger Equation

Authors: M. Momeni Feyli

Abstract:

Many recent high energy physics calculations involving charm and beauty invoke wave function at the origin (WFO) for the meson bound state. Uncertainties of charm and beauty quark masses and different models for potentials governing these bound states require a simple numerical algorithm for evaluation of the WFO's for these bound states. We present a simple algorithm for this propose which provides WFO's with high precision compared with similar ones already obtained in the literature.

Keywords: Mesons, Bound states, Schrodinger equation, Nonrelativistic quark model.

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1472 A Strategy to Optimize the SPC Scheme for Mass Production of HDD Arm with ClusteringTechnique and Three-Way Control Chart

Authors: W. Chattinnawat

Abstract:

Consider a mass production of HDD arms where hundreds of CNC machines are used to manufacturer the HDD arms. According to an overwhelming number of machines and models of arm, construction of separate control chart for monitoring each HDD arm model by each machine is not feasible. This research proposed a strategy to optimize the SPC management on shop floor. The procedure started from identifying the clusters of the machine with similar manufacturing performance using clustering technique. The three way control chart ( I - MR - R ) is then applied to each clustered group of machine. This proposed research has advantageous to the manufacturer in terms of not only better performance of the SPC but also the quality management paradigm.

Keywords: Three way control chart. I - MR - R , between/within variation, HDD arm.

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1471 The Influences of Marketing Mix on Customer Purchasing Behavior at Chatuchak Plaza Market

Authors: Bundit Pungnirund

Abstract:

The objective of this research was to study the influence of marketing mix on customers purchasing behavior. A total of 397 respondents were collected from customers who were the patronages of the Chatuchak Plaza market. A questionnaire was utilized as a tool to collect data. Statistics utilized in this research included frequency, percentage, mean, standard deviation, and multiple regression analysis. Data were analyzed by using Statistical Package for the Social Sciences. The findings revealed that the majority of respondents were male with the age between 25-34 years old, hold undergraduate degree, married and stay together. The average income of respondents was between 10,001-20,000 baht. In terms of occupation, the majority worked for private companies. The research analysis disclosed that there were three variables of marketing mix which included price (X2), place (X3), and product (X1) which had an influence on the frequency of customer purchasing. These three variables can predict a purchase about 30 percent of the time by using the equation; Y1 = 6.851 + .921(X2) + .949(X3) + .591(X1). It also found that in terms of marketing mixed, there were two variables had an influence on the amount of customer purchasing which were physical characteristic (X6), and the process (X7). These two variables are 17 percent predictive of a purchasing by using the equation: Y2 = 2276.88 + 2980.97(X6) + 2188.09(X7).

Keywords: Influences, Marketing Mixed, Purchasing Behavior.

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1470 Probability of Globality

Authors: Eva Eggeling, Dieter W. Fellner, Torsten Ullrich

Abstract:

The objective of global optimization is to find the globally best solution of a model. Nonlinear models are ubiquitous in many applications and their solution often requires a global search approach; i.e. for a function f from a set A ⊂ Rn to the real numbers, an element x0 ∈ A is sought-after, such that ∀ x ∈ A : f(x0) ≤ f(x). Depending on the field of application, the question whether a found solution x0 is not only a local minimum but a global one is very important. This article presents a probabilistic approach to determine the probability of a solution being a global minimum. The approach is independent of the used global search method and only requires a limited, convex parameter domain A as well as a Lipschitz continuous function f whose Lipschitz constant is not needed to be known.

Keywords: global optimization, probability theory, probability of globality

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1469 Matrix Completion with Heterogeneous Observation Cost Using Sparsity-Number of Column-Space

Authors: Ilqar Ramazanli

Abstract:

The matrix completion problem has been studied broadly under many underlying conditions. In many real-life scenarios, we could expect elements from distinct columns or distinct positions to have a different cost. In this paper, we explore this generalization under adaptive conditions. We approach the problem under two different cost models. The first one is that entries from different columns have different observation costs, but, within the same column, each entry has a uniform cost. The second one is any two entry has different observation cost, despite being the same or different columns. We provide complexity analysis of our algorithms and provide tightness guarantees.

Keywords: Matrix completion, adaptive learning, heterogeneous cost, Matroid optimization.

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1468 Comparative Study in Dentinal Tubuli Occlusion Using Bioglass and Copper-Bromide Laser

Authors: Sun Woo Lee, Tae Bum Lee, Yoon Hwa Park, Yoo Jeong Kim

Abstract:

Cervical dentinal hypersensitivity (CDH) affects 8-30% of adults and nearly 85% of perio-treated patients. Various treatment schemes have been applied for treating CDH, among them being fluoride application, laser irradiation, and, recently, bioglass. The purpose of this study was to investigate the influence of bioglass, copper-bromide (Cu-Br) laser irradiation and their combination on dentinal tubule occlusion as a potential dentinal hypersensitivity treatment for CDH. 45 human dentin surfaces were organized into three equal groups: group A received Cu-Br laser only; group B received bioglass only; group C received bioglass followed by Cu-Br laser irradiation. Specimens were evaluated with regard to dentinal tubule occlusion under environmental scanning electron microscope. Treatment modality significantly affected dentinal tubule occlusion (p<0.001). Groups B and C scored higher dentinal tubule occlusion than group A. Binary logistic regression showed that bioglass application significantly (p<0.001) contributed to dentinal tubule occlusion, compared with other variables. Under the conditions used herein and within the limitations of this study, bioglass application, alone or combined with Cu-Br laser irradiation, is a superior method for producing dentinal tubule occlusion, and may lead to an effective treatment modality for CDH.

Keywords: Bioglass, Cu-Br laser, cervical dentinal hypersensitivity, dentinal tubule occlusion.

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1467 Design Parameters Selection and Optimization of Weld Zone Development in Resistance Spot Welding

Authors: Norasiah Muhammad, Yupiter HP Manurung

Abstract:

This paper investigates the development of weld zone in Resistance Spot Welding (RSW) which focuses on weld nugget and Heat Affected Zone (HAZ). The effects of four factors namely weld current, weld time, electrode force and hold time were studied using a general 24 factorial design augmented by five centre points. The results of the analysis showed that all selected factors except hold time exhibit significant effect on weld nugget radius and HAZ size. Optimization of the welding parameters (weld current, weld time and electrode force) to normalize weld nugget and to minimize HAZ size was then conducted using Central Composite Design (CCD) in Response Surface Methodology (RSM) and the optimum parameters were determined. A regression model for radius of weld nugget and HAZ size was developed and its adequacy was evaluated. The experimental results obtained under optimum operating conditions were then compared with the predicted values and were found to agree satisfactorily with each other

Keywords: Factorial design, Optimization, Resistance Spot Welding (RSW), Response Surface Methodology (RSM).

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1466 Investigating the Capacity of Ultimate Torsion of Concrete Prismatic Beams with Transverse Spiral Bars

Authors: Hadi Barghlame, M. A. Lotfollahi-Yaghin

Abstract:

In this paper, the torsion capacity of ultimate point on rectangular beams with spiral reinforcements in the torsion direction and its anti-direction are investigated. Therefore, models of above-mentioned beams have been numerically analyzed under various loads using ANSYS software. It was observed that, spirallyreinforced prismatic beam and beam with spiral links, show lower torsion capacity than beam with normal links also in anti-direction. The result is that the concrete regulations are violated in this case.

Keywords: RC beam, ultimate torsion, finite element, prismatic beams, spirally tie.

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1465 Air Handling Units Power Consumption Using Generalized Additive Model for Anomaly Detection: A Case Study in a Singapore Campus

Authors: Ju Peng Poh, Jun Yu Charles Lee, Jonathan Chew Hoe Khoo

Abstract:

The emergence of digital twin technology, a digital replica of physical world, has improved the real-time access to data from sensors about the performance of buildings. This digital transformation has opened up many opportunities to improve the management of the building by using the data collected to help monitor consumption patterns and energy leakages. One example is the integration of predictive models for anomaly detection. In this paper, we use the GAM (Generalised Additive Model) for the anomaly detection of Air Handling Units (AHU) power consumption pattern. There is ample research work on the use of GAM for the prediction of power consumption at the office building and nation-wide level. However, there is limited illustration of its anomaly detection capabilities, prescriptive analytics case study, and its integration with the latest development of digital twin technology. In this paper, we applied the general GAM modelling framework on the historical data of the AHU power consumption and cooling load of the building between Jan 2018 to Aug 2019 from an education campus in Singapore to train prediction models that, in turn, yield predicted values and ranges. The historical data are seamlessly extracted from the digital twin for modelling purposes. We enhanced the utility of the GAM model by using it to power a real-time anomaly detection system based on the forward predicted ranges. The magnitude of deviation from the upper and lower bounds of the uncertainty intervals is used to inform and identify anomalous data points, all based on historical data, without explicit intervention from domain experts. Notwithstanding, the domain expert fits in through an optional feedback loop through which iterative data cleansing is performed. After an anomalously high or low level of power consumption detected, a set of rule-based conditions are evaluated in real-time to help determine the next course of action for the facilities manager. The performance of GAM is then compared with other approaches to evaluate its effectiveness. Lastly, we discuss the successfully deployment of this approach for the detection of anomalous power consumption pattern and illustrated with real-world use cases.

Keywords: Anomaly detection, digital twin, Generalised Additive Model, Power Consumption Model.

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1464 Economic Evaluation of Degradation by Corrosion of an on-Grid Battery Energy Storage System: A Case Study in Algeria Territory

Authors: Fouzia Brihmat

Abstract:

Economic planning models, which are used to build microgrids and Distributed Energy Resources (DER), are the current norm for expressing such confidence. These models often decide both short-term DER dispatch and long-term DER investments. This research investigates the most cost-effective hybrid (photovoltaic-diesel) renewable energy system (HRES) based on Total Net Present Cost (TNPC) in an Algerian Saharan area, which has a high potential for solar irradiation and has a production capacity of 1 GW/h. Lead-acid batteries have been around much longer and are easier to understand, but have limited storage capacity. Lithium-ion batteries last longer, are lighter, but generally more expensive. By combining the advantages of each chemistry, we produce cost-effective high-capacity battery banks that operate solely on AC coupling. The financial implications of this research describe the corrosion process that occurs at the interface between the active material and grid material of the positive plate of a lead-acid battery. The best cost study for the HRES is completed with the assistance of the HOMER Pro MATLAB Link. Additionally, during the course of the project's 20 years, the system is simulated for each time step. In this model, which takes into consideration decline in solar efficiency, changes in battery storage levels over time, and rises in fuel prices above the rate of inflation, the trade-off is that the model is more accurate, but the computation takes longer. We initially utilized the optimizer to run the model without multi-year in order to discover the best system architecture. The optimal system for the single-year scenario is the Danvest generator, which has 760 kW, 200 kWh of the necessary quantity of lead-acid storage, and a somewhat lower Cost Of Energy (COE) of $0.309/kWh. Different scenarios that account for fluctuations in the gasified biomass generator's production of electricity have been simulated, and various strategies to guarantee the balance between generation and consumption have been investigated.

Keywords: Battery, Corrosion, Diesel, Economic planning optimization, Hybrid energy system, HES, Lead-acid battery, Li-ion battery, multi-year planning, microgrid, price forecast, total net present cost, wind.

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1463 Modelling Extreme Temperature in Malaysia Using Generalized Extreme Value Distribution

Authors: Husna Hasan, Norfatin Salam, Mohd Bakri Adam

Abstract:

Extreme temperature of several stations in Malaysia is modelled by fitting the monthly maximum to the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. The Mann-Kendall (MK) test suggests a non-stationary model. Two models are considered for stations with trend and the Likelihood Ratio test is used to determine the best-fitting model. Results show that half of the stations favour a model which is linear for the location parameters. The return level is the level of events (maximum temperature) which is expected to be exceeded once, on average, in a given number of years, is obtained.

Keywords: Extreme temperature, extreme value, return level.

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1462 The Future of Blended Learning

Authors: Reem A. Alebaikan

Abstract:

The emergence of blended learning has been influenced by the rapid changes in Higher Education within the last few years. However, there is a lack of studies that look into the future of blended learning in the Saudi context. The most likely explanation is that blended learning is relatively new and, with respect to learning in general, under-researched. This study addresses this gap and explores the views of lecturers and students towards the future of blended learning in Saudi Arabia. This study was informed by the interpretive paradigm that appears to be most appropriate to understand and interpret the perceptions of students and instructors towards a new learning environment. While globally there has been considerable research on the perceptions of e-learning and blended learning with its different models, there is plenty of space for further research specifically in the Arab region, and in Saudi Arabia where blended learning is now being introduced.

Keywords: blended learning, higher education.

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1461 A Proposed Framework for Visualization to Teach Computer Science

Authors: Muhammed Yousoof, Mohd Sapiyan, Khaja Kamaluddin

Abstract:

Computer programming is considered a very difficult course by many computer science students. The reasons for the difficulties include cognitive load involved in programming, different learning styles of students, instructional methodology and the choice of the programming languages. To reduce the difficulties the following have been tried: pair programming, program visualization, different learning styles etc. However, these efforts have produced limited success. This paper reviews the problem and proposes a framework to help students overcome the difficulties involved.

Keywords: Cognitive Load, Instructional Models, LearningStyles, Program Visualization.

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