Search results for: partial distribution function

Authors: Ajay Shekhar Pandey, D. Singh, S. K. Sinha

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A clustering based technique has been developed and implemented for Short Term Load Forecasting, in this article. Formulation has been done using Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) as an objective function. Data Matrix and cluster size are optimization variables. Model designed, uses two temperature variables. This is compared with six input Radial Basis Function Neural Network (RBFNN) and Fuzzy Inference Neural Network (FINN) for the data of the same system, for same time period. The fuzzy inference system has the network structure and the training procedure of a neural network which initially creates a rule base from existing historical load data. It is observed that the proposed clustering based model is giving better forecasting accuracy as compared to the other two methods. Test results also indicate that the RBFNN can forecast future loads with accuracy comparable to that of proposed method, where as the training time required in the case of FINN is much less.

Keywords: Load forecasting, clustering, fuzzy inference.

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Authors: Omar M. Sallabi, Younis El-Haddad

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The Genetic Algorithm (GA) is one of the most important methods used to solve many combinatorial optimization problems. Therefore, many researchers have tried to improve the GA by using different methods and operations in order to find the optimal solution within reasonable time. This paper proposes an improved GA (IGA), where the new crossover operation, population reformulates operation, multi mutation operation, partial local optimal mutation operation, and rearrangement operation are used to solve the Traveling Salesman Problem. The proposed IGA was then compared with three GAs, which use different crossover operations and mutations. The results of this comparison show that the IGA can achieve better results for the solutions in a faster time.

Keywords: AI, Genetic algorithms, TSP.

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Authors: Tamás Hartványi, Ferenc Tóth

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European telecommunication distribution center performance is measured by service lead time and quality. Operation model is CTO (customized to order) namely, a high mix customization of telecommunication network equipment and parts. CTO operation contains material receiving, warehousing, network and server assembly to order and configure based on customer specifications. Variety of the product and orders does not support mass production structure. One of the success factors to satisfy customer is to have a proper aggregated planning method for the operation in order to have optimized human resources and highly efficient asset utilization. Research will investigate several methods and find proper way to have an order book simulation where practical optimization problem may contain thousands of variables and the simulation running times of developed algorithms were taken into account with high importance. There are two operation research models that were developed, customer demand is given in orders, no change over time, customer demands are given for product types, and changeover time is constant.

Keywords: CTO, aggregated planning, demand simulation, changeover time.

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Authors: Mohammad Reza Sedighi, Behnam Nilforooshan Dardashti

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The high temperature degree and uniform Temperature Distribution (TD) on surface of cookware which contact with food are effective factors for improving cookware application. Additionally, the ability of pan material in retaining the heat and nonreactivity with foods are other significant properties. It is difficult for single material to meet a wide variety of demands such as superior thermal and chemical properties. Multi-Layer Plate (MLP) makes more regular TD. In this study the main objectives are to find the best structure (single or multi-layer) and materials to provide maximum temperature degree and uniform TD up side surface of pan. And also heat retaining of used metals with goal of improving the thermal quality of pan to economize the energy. To achieve this aim were employed Finite Element Method (FEM) for analyzing transient thermal behavior of applied materials. The analysis has been extended for different metals, we achieved the best temperature profile and heat retaining in Copper/ Stainless Steel MLP.

Keywords: Cookware, Energy optimization, Heat retaining, Laminated plate, Temperature distribution

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Authors: Mahmoud Zarrini, R.N. Pralhad

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In this chapter, we have studied Variation of velocity in incompressible fluid over a moving surface. The boundary layer equations are on a fixed or continuously moving flat plate in the same or opposite direction to the free stream with suction and injection. The boundary layer equations are transferred from partial differential equations to ordinary differential equations. Numerical solutions are obtained by using Runge-Kutta and Shooting methods. We have found numerical solution to velocity and skin friction coefficient.

Keywords: Boundary layer, continuously moving surface, shooting method, skin friction coefficient.

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Authors: Ali Asadian, Behzad Moshiri, Ali Khaki Sedigh, Caro Lucas

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Most integrated inertial navigation systems (INS) and global positioning systems (GPS) have been implemented using the Kalman filtering technique with its drawbacks related to the need for predefined INS error model and observability of at least four satellites. Most recently, a method using a hybrid-adaptive network based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) has been proposed which is trained during the availability of GPS signal to map the error between the GPS and the INS. Then it will be used to predict the error of the INS position components during GPS signal blockage. This paper introduces a genetic optimization algorithm that is used to update the ANFIS parameters with respect to the INS/GPS error function used as the objective function to be minimized. The results demonstrate the advantages of the genetically optimized ANFIS for INS/GPS integration in comparison with conventional ANFIS specially in the cases of satellites- outages. Coping with this problem plays an important role in assessment of the fusion approach in land navigation.

Keywords: Adaptive Network based Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS), Genetic optimization, Global Positioning System (GPS), Inertial Navigation System (INS).

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Authors: Azamossadat Nourbakhsh, Moharram Habibnezhad Korayem

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In the visual servoing systems, the data obtained by Visionary is used for controlling robots. In this project, at first the simulator which was proposed for simulating the performance of a 6R robot before, was examined in terms of software and test, and in the proposed simulator, existing defects were obviated. In the first version of simulation, the robot was directed toward the target object only in a Position-based method using two cameras in the environment. In the new version of the software, three cameras were used simultaneously. The camera which is installed as eye-inhand on the end-effector of the robot is used for visual servoing in a Feature-based method. The target object is recognized according to its characteristics and the robot is directed toward the object in compliance with an algorithm similar to the function of human-s eyes. Then, the function and accuracy of the operation of the robot are examined through Position-based visual servoing method using two cameras installed as eye-to-hand in the environment. Finally, the obtained results are tested under ANSI-RIA R15.05-2 standard.

Keywords: 6R Robot , camera, visual servoing, Feature-based visual servoing, Position-based visual servoing, Performance tests.

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Authors: Chia-Hung Lin, Mei-Sung Kang, Cong-Hui Huang, Chao-Lin Kuo

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This paper proposes fractal patterns for power quality (PQ) detection using color relational analysis (CRA) based classifier. Iterated function system (IFS) uses the non-linear interpolation in the map and uses similarity maps to construct various fractal patterns of power quality disturbances, including harmonics, voltage sag, voltage swell, voltage sag involving harmonics, voltage swell involving harmonics, and voltage interruption. The non-linear interpolation functions (NIFs) with fractal dimension (FD) make fractal patterns more distinguishing between normal and abnormal voltage signals. The classifier based on CRA discriminates the disturbance events in a power system. Compared with the wavelet neural networks, the test results will show accurate discrimination, good robustness, and faster processing time for detecting disturbing events.

Keywords: Power Quality (PQ), Color Relational Analysis(CRA), Iterated Function System (IFS), Non-linear InterpolationFunction (NIF), Fractal Dimension (FD).

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Authors: Gints Jekabsons

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The approach of subset selection in polynomial regression model building assumes that the chosen fixed full set of predefined basis functions contains a subset that is sufficient to describe the target relation sufficiently well. However, in most cases the necessary set of basis functions is not known and needs to be guessed – a potentially non-trivial (and long) trial and error process. In our research we consider a potentially more efficient approach – Adaptive Basis Function Construction (ABFC). It lets the model building method itself construct the basis functions necessary for creating a model of arbitrary complexity with adequate predictive performance. However, there are two issues that to some extent plague the methods of both the subset selection and the ABFC, especially when working with relatively small data samples: the selection bias and the selection instability. We try to correct these issues by model post-evaluation using Cross-Validation and model ensembling. To evaluate the proposed method, we empirically compare it to ABFC methods without ensembling, to a widely used method of subset selection, as well as to some other well-known regression modeling methods, using publicly available data sets.

Keywords: Basis function construction, heuristic search, modelensembles, polynomial regression.

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Authors: Danae Venieri, Christos Theodoropoulos, Maria Lagkadinou, Joan Iliopoulou-Georgudaki

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Changes in the sensory, chemical and microbiological quality of the Mediterranean hake during post-catch handling and distribution were investigated. 115 fish samples were seasonally received during three stages of the transfer route from the sea to the consumer and two storage methods were recorded, seawater and ice storage. Microbiological evaluation revealed higher status for the ice stored samples regarding heterotrophic bacteria (2.68 log cfu/g and 1.92 log cfu/g at 22oC and 37°C respectively) and psychrotrophic counts (3.20 log cfu/g), with statistically significant differences among storage methods. Sensory evaluation also revealed higher status for the ice stored samples with a mean quality index of 0.17 and a spoilage time estimated at 30 hours, in contrast to seawater storage, which varied from 0.28 to 0.3, and a 14-hour estimated spoilage. Detected pathogens were identified mainly in the seawater stored samples, posing questions on the quality of the product reaching the seafood markets.

Keywords: Merluccius merluccius, Microbiological quality, Psychrotrophic bacteria, Sensory evaluation.

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Authors: Mohamed M. Mousa, Aidarkhan Kaltayev

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Based on the homotopy perturbation method (HPM) and Padé approximants (PA), approximate and exact solutions are obtained for cubic Boussinesq and modified Boussinesq equations. The obtained solutions contain solitary waves, rational solutions. HPM is used for analytic treatment to those equations and PA for increasing the convergence region of the HPM analytical solution. The results reveal that the HPM with the enhancement of PA is a very effective, convenient and quite accurate to such types of partial differential equations.

Keywords: Homotopy perturbation method, Padé approximants, cubic Boussinesq equation, modified Boussinesq equation.

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Authors: M. Azadbakht, Y. Fadakar

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Since fuel must be injected with appropriate pressure and time for accurate performance of diesel engines, then proper function of engine is influenced by accurate function of injector pump. At first total pump was designed by SolidWorks 2012 software. Then the total relationship of rotor, roller, internal cam ring, pole shoe and plunger in injector pump in MF285 tractor and their performance was shown. During suction state rollers connect with dents in internal cam ring and in pressure course pole shoes have drawer move in rotor and perform tappet action between rollers and plungers. The maximum stress was obtained by using analysis of finite element method. The maximum stress in contact surface of roller and internal cam ring and on roller surface. The maximum amount of this stress is 288.12 MPa. According to conducted analyses, the minimum value for safety factor is related to roller surface and it equals to 2.0477.

Keywords: Rotary injector pump, MF285 tractor, finite element, stress.

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Authors: Avinash Chandra, R. P. Chhabra

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Natural convection heat transfer from a heated horizontal semi-circular cylinder (flat surface upward) has been investigated for the following ranges of conditions; Grashof number, and Prandtl number. The governing partial differential equations (continuity, Navier-Stokes and energy equations) have been solved numerically using a finite volume formulation. In addition, the role of the type of the thermal boundary condition imposed at cylinder surface, namely, constant wall temperature (CWT) and constant heat flux (CHF) are explored. Natural convection heat transfer from a heated horizontal semi-circular cylinder (flat surface upward) has been investigated for the following ranges of conditions; Grashof number, and Prandtl number, . The governing partial differential equations (continuity, Navier-Stokes and energy equations) have been solved numerically using a finite volume formulation. In addition, the role of the type of the thermal boundary condition imposed at cylinder surface, namely, constant wall temperature (CWT) and constant heat flux (CHF) are explored. The resulting flow and temperature fields are visualized in terms of the streamline and isotherm patterns in the proximity of the cylinder. The flow remains attached to the cylinder surface over the range of conditions spanned here except that for and ; at these conditions, a separated flow region is observed when the condition of the constant wall temperature is prescribed on the surface of the cylinder. The heat transfer characteristics are analyzed in terms of the local and average Nusselt numbers. The maximum value of the local Nusselt number always occurs at the corner points whereas it is found to be minimum at the rear stagnation point on the flat surface. Overall, the average Nusselt number increases with Grashof number and/ or Prandtl number in accordance with the scaling considerations. The numerical results are used to develop simple correlations as functions of Grashof and Prandtl number thereby enabling the interpolation of the present numerical results for the intermediate values of the Prandtl or Grashof numbers for both thermal boundary conditions.

Keywords: Constant heat flux, Constant surface temperature, Grashof number, natural convection, Prandtl number, Semi-circular cylinder

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Authors: Wei Zhang, Hong Yu, Xian-ping Zhao, Da-da Wang, Fei Xue

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For lack of the visualization of the ultrasonic detection method of partial discharge (PD), the ultrasonic detection technology combined with the X-ray visual detection method (UXV) is proposed. The method can conduct qualitative analysis accurately and conduct reliable positioning diagnosis to the internal insulation defects of GIS, and while it could make up the blindness of the X-ray visual detection method and improve the detection rate. In this paper, an experimental model of GIS is used as the trial platform, a variety of insulation defects are set inside the GIS cavity. With the proposed method, the ultrasonic method is used to conduct the preliminary detection, and then the X-ray visual detection is used to locate and diagnose precisely. Therefore, the proposed UXV technology is feasible and practical.

Keywords: GIS, ultrasonic, visual detection, X-ray

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Authors: A. Amogpai

Abstract:

Hydropower and solar photovoltaic (PV) generation are crucial in sustainability and transitioning from fossil fuel to clean energy. Integrating renewable energy sources such as hydropower and solar PV into the distributed networks contributes to achieving energy balance, pollution mitigation, and cost reduction. Frequent power outages and a lack of load reliability characterize the current South Sudan electricity distribution system. The country’s electricity demand is 300 MW; however, the installed capacity is around 212.4 MW. Insufficient funds to build new electricity facilities and expand generation are the reasons for the gap in installed capacity. The South Sudan Ministry of Energy and Dams gave a contract to an Egyptian Elsewedy Electric Company that completed the construction of a solar PV plant in 2023. The plant has a 35 MWh battery storage and 20 MW solar PV system capacity. The construction of Juba Solar PV Park started in 2022 to increase the current installed capacity in Juba City to 53 MW. The plant will begin serving 59000 residents in Juba and save 10,886.2 t of carbon dioxide (CO2) annually.

Keywords: Renewable energy, hydropower, solar energy, photovoltaic, South Sudan.

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Authors: Sakol Udomsiri, Masahiro Iwahashi

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This paper presents comparative study on recent integer DCTs and a new method to construct a low sensitive structure of integer DCT for colored input signals. The method refers to sensitivity of multiplier coefficients to finite word length as an indicator of how word length truncation effects on quality of output signal. The sensitivity is also theoretically evaluated as a function of auto-correlation and covariance matrix of input signal. The structure of integer DCT algorithm is optimized by combination of lower sensitive lifting structure types of IRT. It is evaluated by the sensitivity of multiplier coefficients to finite word length expression in a function of covariance matrix of input signal. Effectiveness of the optimum combination of IRT in integer DCT algorithm is confirmed by quality improvement comparing with existing case. As a result, the optimum combination of IRT in each integer DCT algorithm evidently improves output signal quality and it is still compatible with the existing one.

Keywords: DCT, sensitivity, lossless, wordlength.

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Authors: Ye. B. Utepov, A. S. Tulebekova, A. B. Kazkeyev

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Maturity sensors are used to determine concrete strength by the non-destructive method. The method of placement of the maturity sensors determines their number required for a certain frame of a monolithic building. This paper proposes a cheap prototype of an embedded wireless sensor for monitoring concrete structures, as well as an alternative strategy for placing sensors based on the transitional boundaries of the temperature distribution of concrete curing, which were determined by building a heat map of the temperature distribution, where unknown values are calculated by the method of inverse distance weighing. The developed prototype can simultaneously measure temperature and relative humidity over a smartphone-controlled time interval. It implements a maturity method to assess the in-situ strength of concrete, which is considered an alternative to the traditional shock impulse and compression testing method used in Kazakhstan. The prototype was tested in laboratory and field conditions. The tests were aimed at studying the effect of internal and external temperature and relative humidity on concrete's strength gain. Based on an experimentally poured concrete slab with randomly integrated maturity sensors, it the transition boundaries form elliptical forms were determined. Temperature distribution over the largest diameter of the ellipses was plotted, resulting in correct and inverted parabolas. As a result, the distance between the closest opposite crossing points of the parabolas is accepted as the maximum permissible step for setting the maturity sensors. The proposed placement strategy can be applied to sensors that measure various continuous phenomena such as relative humidity. Prototype testing has also revealed Bluetooth inconvenience due to weak signal and inability to access multiple prototypes simultaneously. For this reason, further prototype upgrades are planned in the future work.

Keywords: Heat map, placement strategy, temperature and relative humidity, wireless embedded sensor.

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Authors: S. Roziana, R. Azizah, A.R. Hamidah

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This paper discusses the issues and challenge that academia faced in knowledge sharing at a research university in Malaysia. The partial results of interview are presented from the actual study. The main issues in knowledge sharing practices are university structure and designation and title. The academia awareness in sharing knowledge is also influenced by culture. Our investigation highlight that the concept of reciprocal relationship of sharing knowledge may hinder knowledge sharing awareness among academia. Hence, we concluded that further investigation could be carried out on the social interaction and trust culture among academia in sharing knowledge within research/ranking university environment.

Keywords: Knowledge sharing awareness, knowledge sharing practices, research university.

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Authors: Aradhna Pandarum

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South Africa is experiencing an exponential growth of distributed solar PV installations. This is due to various factors with the predominant one being increasing electricity tariffs along with decreasing installation costs, resulting in attractive business cases to some end-users. Despite there being a variety of economic and environmental advantages associated with the installation of PV, their potential impact on distribution grids has yet to be thoroughly investigated. This is especially true since the locations of these units cannot be controlled by Network Service Providers (NSPs) and their output power is stochastic and non-dispatchable. This report details two case studies that were completed to determine the possible voltage and technical losses impact of increasing PV penetration in the Northern Cape of South Africa. Some major impacts considered for the simulations were ramping of PV generation due to intermittency caused by moving clouds, the size and overall hosting capacity and the location of the systems. The main finding is that the technical impact is different on a constrained feeder vs a non-constrained feeder. The acceptable PV penetration level is much lower for a constrained feeder than a non-constrained feeder, depending on where the systems are located.

Keywords: Medium voltage networks, power system losses, power system voltage, solar photovoltaic, PV.

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Authors: Tamer A. Tabet, Fauziah Abdul Aziz, Shahidan Radiman

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The spiral angle of the elementary cellulose fibril in the wood cell wall, often called microfibril angle, (MFA). Microfibril angle in hardwood is one of the key determinants of solid timber performance due to its strong influence on the stiffness, strength, shrinkage, swelling, thermal-dynamics mechanical properties and dimensional stability of wood. Variation of MFA (degree) in the S2 layer of the cell walls among Acacia mangium trees was determined using small-angle X-ray scattering (SAXS). The length and orientation of the microfibrils of the cell walls in the irradiated volume of the thin samples are measured using SAXS and optical microscope for 3D surface measurement. The undetermined parameters in the analysis are the MFA, (M) and the standard deviation (σФ) of the intensity distribution arising from the wandering of the fibril orientation about the mean value. Nine separate pairs of values are determined for nine different values of the angle of the incidence of the X-ray beam relative to the normal to the radial direction in the sample. The results show good agreement. The curve distribution of scattered intensity for the real cell wall structure is compared with that calculated with that assembly of rectangular cells with the same ratio of transverse to radial cell wall length. It is demonstrated that for β = 45°, the peaks in the curve intensity distribution for the real and the rectangular cells coincide. If this peak position is Ф45, then the MFA can be determined from the relation M = tan-1 (tan Ф45 / cos 45°), which is precise for rectangular cells. It was found that 92.93% of the variation of MFA can be attributed to the distance from pith to bark. Here we shall present our results of the MFA in the cell wall with respect to its shape, structure and the distance from pith to park as an important fast check and yet accurate towards the quality of wood, its uses and application.

Keywords: Small-Angle X-Ray Scattering, Microfibril Angle, MFA, rectangular cell wall and real cell wall, Acacia mangium.

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Authors: A. K. Sayah, Sh. Hosseinabadi, M. Farazar

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This study investigates CO2 mitigation by methanol synthesis from flue gas CO2 and H2 generation through water electrolysis. Electrolytic hydrogen generation is viable provided that the required electrical power is supplied from renewable energy resources; whereby power generation from renewable resources is yet commercial challenging. This approach contribute to zero-emission, moreover it produce oxygen which could be used as feedstock for chemical process. At ZPC, however, oxygen would be utilized through partial oxidation of methane in autothermal reactor (ATR); this makes ease the difficulties of O2 delivery and marketing. On the other hand, onboard hydrogen storage and consumption; in methanol plant; make the project economically more competitive.

Keywords: Biomass, CO2 abatement, flue gas recovery, renewable energy, sustainable development.

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Authors: Geoffrey J. Blanford, Christoph Weissbart

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The prospects for the European power sector indicate that it has to almost fully decarbonize in order to reach the economy-wide target of CO₂-emission reduction. We apply the EU-REGEN model to explain the penetration of RES from an economic perspective, their spatial distribution, and the complementary role of conventional generation technologies. Furthermore, we identify economic consequences of national energy and climate targets. Our study shows that onshore wind power will be the most crucial generation technology for the future European power sector. Its geographic distribution is driven by resource quality. Gas power will be the major conventional generation technology for backing-up wind power. Moreover, a complete phase out of coal power proves to be not economically optimal. The paper demonstrates that existing national targets have a negative impact, especially on the German region with higher prices and lower revenues. The remaining regions profit are hardly affected. We encourage an EU-wide coordination on the expansion of wind power with harmonized policies. Yet, this requires profitable market structures for both, RES and conventional generation technologies.

Keywords: European decarbonization pathway, power market investment, public policies, technology choice.

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Authors: S. Karthika, K. Velayutham, P. Rathika, D. Devaraj

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The electric power supplied by a photovoltaic power generation systems depends on the solar irradiation and temperature. The PV system can supply the maximum power to the load at a particular operating point which is generally called as maximum power point (MPP), at which the entire PV system operates with maximum efficiency and produces its maximum power. Hence, a Maximum power point tracking (MPPT) methods are used to maximize the PV array output power by tracking continuously the maximum power point. The proposed MPPT controller is designed for 10kW solar PV system installed at Cape Institute of Technology. This paper presents the fuzzy logic based MPPT algorithm. However, instead of one type of membership function, different structures of fuzzy membership functions are used in the FLC design. The proposed controller is combined with the system and the results are obtained for each membership functions in Matlab/Simulink environment. Simulation results are decided that which membership function is more suitable for this system.

Keywords: MPPT, DC-DC Converter, Fuzzy logic controller, Photovoltaic (PV) system.

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Authors: Abdul-Khaliq M. Hussain, Bashir A. Tantosh, El-Sadeg A. Abdalla

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Corrosion of metallic water pipelines buried below ground surface is a function of the nature of the surrounding soil and groundwater. This gives the importance of knowing the physical and chemical characteristics of the pipe-s surrounding environment. The corrosion of externally – unprotected metallic water pipelines, specially ductile iron pipes, in localities with aggressive soil conditions is becoming a significant problem. Anticorrosive protection for metallic water pipelines, their fittings and accessories is very important, because they may be attached by corrosion with time. The tendency of a metallic substrate to corrode is a function of the surface characteristics of the metal and of the metal/protective film interface, the physical, electrical and electrochemical properties of the film, and the nature of the environment in which the pipelines system is placed. In this work the authors have looked at corrosion problems of water pipelines and their control. The corrosive properties of groundwater and soil environments are reviewed, and parameters affecting corrosion are discussed. The purpose of this work is to provide guidelines for materials selection in water and soil environments, and how the water pipelines can be protected against metallic corrosion.

Keywords: Corrosion, Drinking Water, Metallic WaterPipelines, Polluted Water.

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Authors: Ioannis Binas, Marios Moschakis

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Electrical faults in transmission and distribution networks can have great impact on the electrical equipment used. Fault effects depend on the characteristics of the fault as well as the network itself. It is important to anticipate the network’s behavior during faults when planning a new equipment installation, as well as troubleshooting. Moreover, working backwards, we could be able to estimate the characteristics of the fault when checking the perceived effects. Different transformer winding connections dominantly used in the Greek power transfer and distribution networks and the effects of 1-phase to neutral, phase-to-phase, 2-phases to neutral and 3-phase faults on different locations of the network were simulated in order to present voltage sag characteristics. The study was performed on a generic network with three steps down transformers on two voltage level buses (one 150 kV/20 kV transformer and two 20 kV/0.4 kV). We found that during faults, there are significant changes both on voltage magnitudes and on phase angles. The simulations and short-circuit analysis were performed using the PSCAD simulation package. This paper presents voltage characteristics calculated for the simulated network, with different approaches on the transformer winding connections during symmetrical and asymmetrical faults on various locations.

Keywords: Phase angle shift, power quality, transformer winding connections, voltage sag propagation.

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Authors: Rawaa H. El-Bidweihy, Hisham M. Abdelsalam, Ihab A. El-Khodary

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Bayesian networks are now considered to be a promising tool in the field of energy with different applications. In this study, the aim was to indicate the states of a previous constructed Bayesian network related to the solar energy in Egypt and the factors affecting its market share, depending on the followed data distribution type for each factor, and using either the Z-distribution approach or the Chebyshev’s inequality theorem. Later on, the separate and the conditional probabilities of the states of each factor in the Bayesian network were derived, either from the collected and scrapped historical data or from estimations and past studies. Results showed that we could use the constructed model for scenario and decision analysis concerning forecasting the total percentage of the market share of the solar energy in Egypt by 2035 and using it as a stable renewable source for generating any type of energy needed. Also, it proved that whenever the use of the solar energy increases, the total costs decreases. Furthermore, we have identified different scenarios, such as the best, worst, 50/50, and most likely one, in terms of the expected changes in the percentage of the solar energy market share. The best scenario showed an 85% probability that the market share of the solar energy in Egypt will exceed 10% of the total energy market, while the worst scenario showed only a 24% probability that the market share of the solar energy in Egypt will exceed 10% of the total energy market. Furthermore, we applied policy analysis to check the effect of changing the controllable (decision) variable’s states acting as different scenarios, to show how it would affect the target nodes in the model. Additionally, the best environmental and economical scenarios were developed to show how other factors are expected to be, in order to affect the model positively. Additional evidence and derived probabilities were added for the weather dynamic nodes whose states depend on time, during the process of converting the Bayesian network into a dynamic Bayesian network.

Keywords: Bayesian network, Chebyshev, decision variable, dynamic Bayesian network, Z-distribution

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Authors: Gabriele Cecchetti, Anna Lina Ruscelli, Filippo Cugini, Piero Castoldi

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European Rail Traffic Management System (ERTMS) is the European reference for interoperable and safer signaling systems to efficiently manage trains running. If implemented, it allows trains cross seamlessly intra-European national borders. ERTMS has defined a secure communication protocol, EURORADIO, based on open communication networks. Its RadioInfill function can improve the reaction of the signaling system to changes in line conditions, avoiding unnecessary braking: its advantages in terms of power saving and travel time has been analyzed. In this paper a software implementation of the EURORADIO protocol with RadioInfill for ERTMS Level 1 using GSM-R is illustrated as part of the SR-Secure Italian project. In this building-blocks architecture the EURORADIO layers communicates together through modular Application Programm Interfaces. Security coding rules and railway industry requirements specified by EN 50128 standard have been respected. The proposed implementation has successfully passed conformity tests and has been tested on a computer-based simulator.

Keywords: ERTMS, ETCS signalling, EURORADIO protocol, radio infill function.

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Authors: Ekrem Erdem, Can Tansel Tugcu

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Improved resource efficiency of production is a key requirement for sustainable growth, worldwide. In this regards, by considering the energy and tourism as the extra inputs to the classical Coub-Douglas production function, this study aims at investigating the efficiency changes in the North African countries. To this end, the study uses panel data for the period 1995-2010 and adopts the Malmquist index based on the data envelopment analysis. Results show that tourism increases technical and scale efficiencies, while it decreases technological and total factor productivity changes. On the other hand, when the production function is augmented by the energy input; technical efficiency change decreases, while the technological change, scale efficiency change and total factor productivity change increase. Thus, in order to satisfy the needs for sustainable growth, North African governments should take some measures for increasing the contribution that the tourism makes to economic growth and some others for efficient use of resources in the energy sector.

Keywords: Data envelopment analysis, Economic efficiency, North African countries, Sustainable growth.

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Authors: V. V. Singh, Yusuf Ibrahim Gwanda, Rajesh Prasad

Abstract:

In this paper, we focus on the reliability and performance analysis of Computer Centre (CC) at Yobe State University, Damaturu, Nigeria. The CC consists of three servers: one database mail server, one redundant and one for sharing with the client computers in the CC (called as a local server). Observing the different possibilities of the functioning of the CC, the analysis has been done to evaluate the various popular measures of reliability such as availability, reliability, mean time to failure (MTTF), profit analysis due to the operation of the system. The system can ultimately fail due to the failure of router, redundant server before repairing the mail server and switch failure. The system can also partially fail when a local server fails. The failed devices have restored according to Least Recently Used (LRU) techniques. The system can also fail entirely due to a cooling failure of the server, electricity failure or some natural calamity like earthquake, fire tsunami, etc. All the failure rates are assumed to be constant and follow exponential time distribution, while the repair follows two types of distributions: i.e. general and Gumbel-Hougaard family copula distribution.

Keywords: Reliability, availability Gumbel-Hougaard family copula, MTTF, internet data center.

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Authors: Min Min Swe Zin

Abstract:

This paper introduces the foundations of Bayesian probability theory and Bayesian decision method. The main goal of Bayesian decision theory is to minimize the expected loss of a decision or minimize the expected risk. The purposes of this study are to review the decision process on the issue of flood occurrences and to suggest possible process for decision improvement. This study examines the problem structure of flood occurrences and theoretically explicates the decision-analytic approach based on Bayesian decision theory and application to flood occurrences in Environmental Engineering. In this study, we will discuss about the flood occurrences upon an annual maximum water level in cm, 43-year record available from 1965 to 2007 at the gauging station of Sagaing on the Ayeyarwady River with the drainage area - 120193 sq km by using Bayesian decision method. As a result, we will discuss the loss and risk of vast areas of agricultural land whether which will be inundated or not in the coming year based on the two standard maximum water levels during 43 years. And also we forecast about that lands will be safe from flood water during the next 10 years.

Keywords: Bayesian decision method, conditional binomial distribution, minimax rules, prior beta distribution.

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