Search results for: work effort estimation methods
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 8708

Search results for: work effort estimation methods

7448 Effects of Fermentation Techniques on the Quality of Cocoa Beans

Authors: Monday O. Ale, Adebukola A. Akintade, Olasunbo O. Orungbemi

Abstract:

Fermentation as an important operation in the processing of cocoa beans is now affected by the recent climate change across the globe. The major requirement for effective fermentation is the ability of the material used to retain sufficient heat for the required microbial activities. Apart from the effects of climate on the rate of heat retention, the materials used for fermentation plays an important role. Most Farmers still restrict fermentation activities to the use of traditional methods. Improving on cocoa fermentation in this era of climate change makes it necessary to work on other materials that can be suitable for cocoa fermentation. Therefore, the objective of this study was to determine the effects of fermentation techniques on the quality of cocoa beans. The materials used in this fermentation research were heap-leaves (traditional), stainless steel, plastic tin, plastic basket and wooden box. The period of fermentation varies from zero days to 10 days. Physical and chemical tests were carried out for variables in quality determination in the samples. The weight per bean varied from 1.0-1.2 g after drying across the samples and the major color of the dry beans observed was brown except with the samples from stainless steel. The moisture content varied from 5.5-7%. The mineral content and the heavy metals decreased with increase in the fermentation period. A wooden box can conclusively be used as an alternative to heap-leaves as there was no significant difference in the physical features of the samples fermented with the two methods. The use of a wooden box as an alternative for cocoa fermentation is therefore recommended for cocoa farmers.

Keywords: Effects, fermentation, fermentation materials, period, quality.

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7447 The Influence of the Commons Structure Modification on the Active Power Losses Allocation

Authors: O. Pop, C. Barbulescu, M. Nemes, St. Kilyeni

Abstract:

The tracing methods determine the contribution the power system sources have in their supplying. These methods can be used to assess the transmission prices, but also to recover the transmission fixed cost. In this paper is presented the influence of the modification of commons structure has on the specific price of transfer and on active power losses. The authors propose a power losses allocation method, based on Kirschen-s method. The system operator must make use of a few basic principles about allocation. The only necessary information is the power flows on system branches and the modifications applied to power system buses. In order to illustrate this method, the 25-bus test system is used, elaborated within the Electrical Power Engineering Department, from Timisoara, Romania.

Keywords: Power systems, P-U bus, P-Q bus, loss allocation, traceability methods.

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7446 An Efficient 3D Animation Data Reduction Using Frame Removal

Authors: Jinsuk Yang, Choongjae Joo, Kyoungsu Oh

Abstract:

Existing methods in which the animation data of all frames are stored and reproduced as with vertex animation cannot be used in mobile device environments because these methods use large amounts of the memory. So 3D animation data reduction methods aimed at solving this problem have been extensively studied thus far and we propose a new method as follows. First, we find and remove frames in which motion changes are small out of all animation frames and store only the animation data of remaining frames (involving large motion changes). When playing the animation, the removed frame areas are reconstructed using the interpolation of the remaining frames. Our key contribution is to calculate the accelerations of the joints of individual frames and the standard deviations of the accelerations using the information of joint locations in the relevant 3D model in order to find and delete frames in which motion changes are small. Our methods can reduce data sizes by approximately 50% or more while providing quality which is not much lower compared to original animations. Therefore, our method is expected to be usefully used in mobile device environments or other environments in which memory sizes are limited.

Keywords: Data Reduction, Interpolation, Vertex Animation, 3D Animation.

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7445 Dengue Disease Mapping with Standardized Morbidity Ratio and Poisson-gamma Model: An Analysis of Dengue Disease in Perak, Malaysia

Authors: N. A. Samat, S. H. Mohd Imam Ma’arof

Abstract:

Dengue disease is an infectious vector-borne viral disease that is commonly found in tropical and sub-tropical regions, especially in urban and semi-urban areas, around the world and including Malaysia. There is no currently available vaccine or chemotherapy for the prevention or treatment of dengue disease. Therefore prevention and treatment of the disease depend on vector surveillance and control measures. Disease risk mapping has been recognized as an important tool in the prevention and control strategies for diseases. The choice of statistical model used for relative risk estimation is important as a good model will subsequently produce a good disease risk map. Therefore, the aim of this study is to estimate the relative risk for dengue disease based initially on the most common statistic used in disease mapping called Standardized Morbidity Ratio (SMR) and one of the earliest applications of Bayesian methodology called Poisson-gamma model. This paper begins by providing a review of the SMR method, which we then apply to dengue data of Perak, Malaysia. We then fit an extension of the SMR method, which is the Poisson-gamma model. Both results are displayed and compared using graph, tables and maps. Results of the analysis shows that the latter method gives a better relative risk estimates compared with using the SMR. The Poisson-gamma model has been demonstrated can overcome the problem of SMR when there is no observed dengue cases in certain regions. However, covariate adjustment in this model is difficult and there is no possibility for allowing spatial correlation between risks in adjacent areas. The drawbacks of this model have motivated many researchers to propose other alternative methods for estimating the risk.

Keywords: Dengue disease, Disease mapping, Standardized Morbidity Ratio, Poisson-gamma model, Relative risk.

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7444 Prediction of Bath Temperature Using Neural Networks

Authors: H. Meradi, S. Bouhouche, M. Lahreche

Abstract:

In this work, we consider an application of neural networks in LD converter. Application of this approach assumes a reliable prediction of steel temperature and reduces a reblow ratio in steel work. It has been applied a conventional model to charge calculation, the obtained results by this technique are not always good, this is due to the process complexity. Difficulties are mainly generated by the noisy measurement and the process non linearities. Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) have become a powerful tool for these complex applications. It is used a backpropagation algorithm to learn the neural nets. (ANNs) is used to predict the steel bath temperature in oxygen converter process for the end condition. This model has 11 inputs process variables and one output. The model was tested in steel work, the obtained results by neural approach are better than the conventional model.

Keywords: LD converter, bath temperature, neural networks.

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7443 Teaching Computer Programming to Diverse Students: A Comparative, Mixed-Methods, Classroom Research Study

Authors: Almudena Konrad, Tomás Galguera

Abstract:

Lack of motivation and interest is a serious obstacle to students’ learning computing skills. A need exists for a knowledge base on effective pedagogy and curricula to teach computer programming. This paper presents results from research evaluating a six-year project designed to teach complex concepts in computer programming collaboratively, while supporting students to continue developing their computer thinking and related coding skills individually. Utilizing a quasi-experimental, mixed methods design, the pedagogical approaches and methods were assessed in two contrasting groups of students with different socioeconomic status, gender, and age composition. Analyses of quantitative data from Likert-scale surveys and an evaluation rubric, combined with qualitative data from reflective writing exercises and semi-structured interviews yielded convincing evidence of the project’s success at both teaching and inspiring students.

Keywords: Computational thinking, computing education, computer programming curriculum, logic, teaching methods.

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7442 Some Aspects of the Sustainable Development in Romania

Authors: Burja C., Burja V.

Abstract:

The paper presents the Romanian realities and perspectives from the point of view of reaching the sustainable development model in the context of the recent accession to the European Union, based on the analysis of the indicators listed in the EU Sustainable Development Strategy. The analysis of the economic-social potential for sustainable development and of the environment aspects show that the objectives stipulated in the renewed EU Sustainable Development Strategy of 2006 can be reached, but an extra effort must be put-in in order to overcome the existing substantial gaps in several areas in relation to the developed countries of the EU. The paper-s conclusions show that even if sustainable development is not an easy target to reach in Romania, there are resources and a growing potential, which can lead to sustainable development if used rationally.

Keywords: Ecological dimension, economic-social potential, strategy, sustainable development

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7441 Effects of Different Drying Methods on the Properties of Viscose Single Jersey Fabrics

Authors: M. Kucukali Ozturk, Y. Beceren, B. Nergis

Abstract:

The study discussed in this paper was conducted in an attempt to investigate effects of different drying methods (line dry and tumble dry) on viscose single jersey fabrics knitted with ring yarn.

Keywords: Color change, dimensional properties, drying method, fabric tightness, physical properties.

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7440 Development of Condition Monitoring System with Control Functions for Wind Turbines

Authors: Joon-Young Park, Beom-Joo Kim, Jae-Kyung Lee

Abstract:

As an effort to promote wind power industry in Korea, Korea South-East Power Corporation has been developing 22MW YeungHeung wind farm consisting of nine 2 to 3MW wind turbines supplied by three manufacturers. To maximize its availability and reliability and to solve the difficulty of operating three kinds of SCADA systems, Korea Electric Power Corporation has been developing a condition monitoring system integrated with control functions. This paper presents the developed condition monitoring system and its application to YeungHeung wind test bed, and the design of its control functions.

Keywords: condition monitoring, control function, reliability, wind turbine

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7439 Synchronization between the Slow Oscillations in the Human Cardiovascular System

Authors: M. D. Prokhorov, V. I. Ponomarenko, A. S. Karavaev, A. R. Kiselev, V. I. Gridnev

Abstract:

Synchronization between the slow oscillations of heart rate and blood pressure having in humans a basic frequency close to 0.1 Hz is investigated. A method is proposed for quantitative estimation of synchronization between these oscillating processes based on calculation of relative time of phase synchronization of oscillations. It is shown that healthy subjects exhibit in average substantially longer epochs of synchronization between the slow oscillations in heart rate and blood pressure than patients after acute myocardial infarction

Keywords: Cardiovascular system, slow oscillating processes, synchronization.

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7438 Wavelet Based Identification of Second Order Linear System

Authors: Sudipta Majumdar, Harish Parthasarathy

Abstract:

In this paper, a wavelet based method is proposed to identify the constant coefficients of a second order linear system and is compared with the least squares method. The proposed method shows improved accuracy of parameter estimation as compared to the least squares method. Additionally, it has the advantage of smaller data requirement and storage requirement as compared to the least squares method.

Keywords: Least squares method, linear system, system identification, wavelet transform.

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7437 Biosynthesis and In vitro Studies of Silver Bionanoparticles Synthesized from Aspergillusspecies and its Antimicrobial Activity against Multi Drug Resistant Clinical Isolates

Authors: M. Saravanan

Abstract:

Antimicrobial resistant is becoming a major factor in virtually all hospital acquired infection may soon untreatable is a serious public health problem. These concerns have led to major research effort to discover alternative strategies for the treatment of bacterial infection. Nanobiotehnology is an upcoming and fast developing field with potential application for human welfare. An important area of nanotechnology for development of reliable and environmental friendly process for synthesis of nanoscale particles through biological systems In the present studies are reported on the use of fungal strain Aspergillus species for the extracellular synthesis of bionanoparticles from 1 mM silver nitrate (AgNO3) solution. The report would be focused on the synthesis of metallic bionanoparticles of silver using a reduction of aqueous Ag+ ion with the culture supernatants of Microorganisms. The bio-reduction of the Ag+ ions in the solution would be monitored in the aqueous component and the spectrum of the solution would measure through UV-visible spectrophotometer The bionanoscale particles were further characterized by Atomic Force Microscopy (AFM), Fourier Transform Infrared Spectroscopy (FTIR) and Thin layer chromatography. The synthesized bionanoscale particle showed a maximum absorption at 385 nm in the visible region. Atomic Force Microscopy investigation of silver bionanoparticles identified that they ranged in the size of 250 nm - 680 nm; the work analyzed the antimicrobial efficacy of the silver bionanoparticles against various multi drug resistant clinical isolates. The present Study would be emphasizing on the applicability to synthesize the metallic nanostructures and to understand the biochemical and molecular mechanism of nanoparticles formation by the cell filtrate in order to achieve better control over size and polydispersity of the nanoparticles. This would help to develop nanomedicine against various multi drug resistant human pathogens.

Keywords: Bionanoparticles, UV-visible spectroscopy, AtomicForce Microscopy, Extracellular synthesis, Multi drug resistant, antimicrobial activity, Nanomedicine

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7436 Data Mining Classification Methods Applied in Drug Design

Authors: Mária Stachová, Lukáš Sobíšek

Abstract:

Data mining incorporates a group of statistical methods used to analyze a set of information, or a data set. It operates with models and algorithms, which are powerful tools with the great potential. They can help people to understand the patterns in certain chunk of information so it is obvious that the data mining tools have a wide area of applications. For example in the theoretical chemistry data mining tools can be used to predict moleculeproperties or improve computer-assisted drug design. Classification analysis is one of the major data mining methodologies. The aim of thecontribution is to create a classification model, which would be able to deal with a huge data set with high accuracy. For this purpose logistic regression, Bayesian logistic regression and random forest models were built using R software. TheBayesian logistic regression in Latent GOLD software was created as well. These classification methods belong to supervised learning methods. It was necessary to reduce data matrix dimension before construct models and thus the factor analysis (FA) was used. Those models were applied to predict the biological activity of molecules, potential new drug candidates.

Keywords: data mining, classification, drug design, QSAR

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7435 Combination of Geological, Geophysical and Reservoir Engineering Analyses in Field Development: A Case Study

Authors: Atif Zafar, Fan Haijun

Abstract:

A sequence of different Reservoir Engineering methods and tools in reservoir characterization and field development are presented in this paper. The real data of Jin Gas Field of L-Basin of Pakistan is used. The basic concept behind this work is to enlighten the importance of well test analysis in a broader way (i.e. reservoir characterization and field development) unlike to just determine the permeability and skin parameters. Normally in the case of reservoir characterization we rely on well test analysis to some extent but for field development plan, the well test analysis has become a forgotten tool specifically for locations of new development wells. This paper describes the successful implementation of well test analysis in Jin Gas Field where the main uncertainties are identified during initial stage of field development when location of new development well was marked only on the basis of G&G (Geologic and Geophysical) data. The seismic interpretation could not encounter one of the boundary (fault, sub-seismic fault, heterogeneity) near the main and only producing well of Jin Gas Field whereas the results of the model from the well test analysis played a very crucial rule in order to propose the location of second well of the newly discovered field. The results from different methods of well test analysis of Jin Gas Field are also integrated with and supported by other tools of Reservoir Engineering i.e. Material Balance Method and Volumetric Method. In this way, a comprehensive way out and algorithm is obtained in order to integrate the well test analyses with Geological and Geophysical analyses for reservoir characterization and field development. On the strong basis of this working and algorithm, it was successfully evaluated that the proposed location of new development well was not justified and it must be somewhere else except South direction.

Keywords: Field development, reservoir characterization, reservoir engineering, well test analysis.

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7434 The New AIMD Congestion Control Algorithm

Authors: Hayder Natiq Jasem, Zuriati Ahmad Zukarnain, Mohamed Othman, Shamala Subramaniam

Abstract:

Congestion control is one of the fundamental issues in computer networks. Without proper congestion control mechanisms there is the possibility of inefficient utilization of resources, ultimately leading to network collapse. Hence congestion control is an effort to adapt the performance of a network to changes in the traffic load without adversely affecting users perceived utilities. AIMD (Additive Increase Multiplicative Decrease) is the best algorithm among the set of liner algorithms because it reflects good efficiency as well as good fairness. Our control model is based on the assumption of the original AIMD algorithm; we show that both efficiency and fairness of AIMD can be improved. We call our approach is New AIMD. We present experimental results with TCP that match the expectation of our theoretical analysis.

Keywords: Congestion control, Efficiency, Fairness, TCP, AIMD.

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7433 The Design of PIP Controller for a Thermal System with Large Time Delay

Authors: Seiyed Hamid Zareh, Atabak Sarrafan, Kambiz Ghaemi Osgouie

Abstract:

This paper will first describe predictor controllers when the proportional-integral-derivative (PID) controllers are inactive for procedures that have large delay time (LDT) in transfer stage. Therefore in those states, the predictor controllers are better than the PID controllers, then compares three types of predictor controllers. The value of these controller-s parameters are obtained by trial and error method, so here an effort has been made to obtain these parameters by Ziegler-Nichols method. Eventually in this paper Ziegler-Nichols method has been described and finally, a PIP controller has been designed for a thermal system, which circulates hot air to keep the temperature of a chamber constant.

Keywords: Proportional-integral-predictive controller, Transferfunction, Delay time, Transport-lag.

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7432 Development of a Multi-Factorial Instrument for Accident Analysis Based on Systemic Methods

Authors: C. V. Pietreanu, S. E. Zaharia, C. Dinu

Abstract:

The present research is built on three major pillars, commencing by making some considerations on accident investigation methods and pointing out both defining aspects and differences between linear and non-linear analysis. The traditional linear focus on accident analysis describes accidents as a sequence of events, while the latest systemic models outline interdependencies between different factors and define the processes evolution related to a specific (normal) situation. Linear and non-linear accident analysis methods have specific limitations, so the second point of interest is mirrored by the aim to discover the drawbacks of systemic models which becomes a starting point for developing new directions to identify risks or data closer to the cause of incidents/accidents. Since communication represents a critical issue in the interaction of human factor and has been proved to be the answer of the problems made by possible breakdowns in different communication procedures, from this focus point, on the third pylon a new error-modeling instrument suitable for risk assessment/accident analysis will be elaborated.

Keywords: Accident analysis, multi-factorial error modeling, risk, systemic methods.

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7431 Comparison of Machine Learning and Deep Learning Algorithms for Automatic Classification of 80 Different Pollen Species

Authors: Endrick Barnacin, Jean-Luc Henry, Jimmy Nagau, Jack Molinié

Abstract:

Palynology is a field of interest in many disciplines due to its multiple applications: chronological dating, climatology, allergy treatment, and honey characterization. Unfortunately, the analysis of a pollen slide is a complicated and time consuming task that requires the intervention of experts in the field, which are becoming increasingly rare due to economic and social conditions. In this context, the automation of this task is urgent. In this work, we compare classical feature extraction methods (Shape, GLCM, LBP, and others) and Deep Learning (CNN and Transfer Learning) to perform a recognition task over 80 regional pollen species. It has been found that the use of Transfer Learning seems to be more precise than the other approaches.

Keywords: Image segmentation, stuck particles separation, Sobel operator, thresholding.

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7430 A New Distribution and Application on the Lifetime Data

Authors: Gamze Ozel, Selen Cakmakyapan

Abstract:

We introduce a new model called the Marshall-Olkin Rayleigh distribution which extends the Rayleigh distribution using Marshall-Olkin transformation and has increasing and decreasing shapes for the hazard rate function. Various structural properties of the new distribution are derived including explicit expressions for the moments, generating and quantile function, some entropy measures, and order statistics are presented. The model parameters are estimated by the method of maximum likelihood and the observed information matrix is determined. The potentiality of the new model is illustrated by means of a simulation study. 

Keywords: Marshall-Olkin distribution, Rayleigh distribution, estimation, maximum likelihood.

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7429 Improving the Quality of Transport Management Services with Fuzzy Signatures

Authors: Csaba I. Hencz, István Á. Harmati

Abstract:

Nowadays the significance of road transport is gradually increasing. All transport companies are working in the same external environment where the speed of transport is defined by traffic rules. The main objective is to accelerate the speed of service and it is only dependent on the individual abilities of the managing members. These operational control units make decisions quickly (in a typically experiential and/or intuitive way). For this reason, support for these decisions is an important task. Our goal is to create a decision support model based on fuzzy signatures that can assist the work of operational management automatically. If the model sets parameters properly, the management of transport could be more economical and efficient.

Keywords: Freight transport, decision support, information handling, fuzzy methods.

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7428 Estimation of Bayesian Sample Size for Binomial Proportions Using Areas P-tolerance with Lowest Posterior Loss

Authors: H. Bevrani, N. Najafi

Abstract:

This paper uses p-tolerance with the lowest posterior loss, quadratic loss function, average length criteria, average coverage criteria, and worst outcome criterion for computing of sample size to estimate proportion in Binomial probability function with Beta prior distribution. The proposed methodology is examined, and its effectiveness is shown.

Keywords: Bayesian inference, Beta-binomial Distribution, LPLcriteria, quadratic loss function.

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7427 Investigation of Stability of Functionally Graded Material when Encountering Periodic Loading

Authors: M. Amiri

Abstract:

In this work, functionally graded materials (FGMs), subjected to loading, which varies with time has been studied. The material properties of FGM are changing through the thickness of material as power law distribution. The conical shells have been chosen for this study so in the first step capability equations for FGM have been obtained. With Galerkin method, these equations have been replaced with time dependant differential equations with variable coefficient. These equations have solved for different initial conditions with variation methods. Important parameters in loading conditions are semi-vertex angle, external pressure and material properties. Results validation has been done by comparison between with those in previous studies of other researchers.

Keywords: Impulsive semi-vertex angle, loading, functionally graded materials, composite material.

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7426 Application of Scanning Electron Microscopy and X-Ray Evaluation of the Main Digestion Methods for Determination of Macroelements in Plant Tissue

Authors: Krasimir I. Ivanov, Penka S. Zapryanova, Stefan V. Krustev, Violina R. Angelova

Abstract:

Three commonly used digestion methods (dry ashing, acid digestion, and microwave digestion) in different variants were compared for digestion of tobacco leaves. Three main macroelements (K, Ca and Mg) were analysed using AAS Spectrometer Spectra АА 220, Varian, Australia. The accuracy and precision of the measurements were evaluated by using Polish reference material CTR-VTL-2 (Virginia tobacco leaves). To elucidate the problems with elemental recovery X-Ray and SEM–EDS analysis of all residues after digestion were performed. The X-ray investigation showed a formation of KClO4 when HClO4 was used as a part of the acids mixture. The use of HF at Ca and Mg determination led to the formation of CaF2 and MgF2. The results were confirmed by energy dispersive X-ray microanalysis. SPSS program for Windows was used for statistical data processing.

Keywords: Digestion methods, determination of macroelements, plant tissue.

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7425 Thermodynamic Performance of Regenerative Organic Rankine Cycles

Authors: Kyoung Hoon Kim

Abstract:

ORC (Organic Rankine Cycle) has potential of reducing consumption of fossil fuels and has many favorable characteristics to exploit low-temperature heat sources. In this work thermodynamic performance of ORC with regeneration is comparatively assessed for various working fluids. Special attention is paid to the effects of system parameters such as the turbine inlet pressure on the characteristics of the system such as net work production, heat input, volumetric flow rate per 1 MW of net work and quality of the working fluid at turbine exit as well as thermal efficiency. Results show that for a given source the thermal efficiency generally increases with increasing of the turbine inlet pressure however has optimal condition for working fluids of low critical pressure such as iso-pentane or n-pentane.

Keywords: low-grade energy source, organic Rankine cycle(ORC), regeneration, Patel-Teja equation.

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7424 BIM Application and Construction Schedule Simulation for the Horizontal Work Area

Authors: Hyeon-Seong Kim, Sang-Mi Park, Seul-Gi Kim, Seon-Ju Han, Leen-Seok Kang

Abstract:

The use of BIM, including 4D CAD system, in a construction project is gradually increasing. Since the building construction works repeatedly in the vertical space, it is relatively easy to confirm the interference effect when applying the BIM, but the interference effect for the civil engineering project is relatively small because the civil works perform non-repetitive processes in the horizontal space. For this reason, it is desirable to apply BIM to the construction phase when applying BIM to the civil engineering project, and the most active BIM tool applied to the construction phase is the 4D CAD function for the schedule management. This paper proposes the application procedure of BIM by the construction phase of civil engineering project and a linear 4D CAD construction methodology suitable for the civil engineering project in which linear work is performed.

Keywords: BIM, 4D CAD, Horizontal work area, Linear simulation, VR.

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7423 Simulation of a Multi-Component Transport Model for the Chemical Reaction of a CVD-Process

Authors: J. Geiser, R. Röhle

Abstract:

In this paper we present discretization and decomposition methods for a multi-component transport model of a chemical vapor deposition (CVD) process. CVD processes are used to manufacture deposition layers or bulk materials. In our transport model we simulate the deposition of thin layers. The microscopic model is based on the heavy particles, which are derived by approximately solving a linearized multicomponent Boltzmann equation. For the drift-process of the particles we propose diffusionreaction equations as well as for the effects of heat conduction. We concentrate on solving the diffusion-reaction equation with analytical and numerical methods. For the chemical processes, modelled with reaction equations, we propose decomposition methods and decouple the multi-component models to simpler systems of differential equations. In the numerical experiments we present the computational results of our proposed models.

Keywords: Chemical reactions, chemical vapor deposition, convection-diffusion-reaction equations, decomposition methods, multi-component transport.

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7422 Forecasting Malaria Cases in Bujumbura

Authors: Hermenegilde Nkurunziza, Albrecht Gebhardt, Juergen Pilz

Abstract:

The focus in this work is to assess which method allows a better forecasting of malaria cases in Bujumbura ( Burundi) when taking into account association between climatic factors and the disease. For the period 1996-2007, real monthly data on both malaria epidemiology and climate in Bujumbura are described and analyzed. We propose a hierarchical approach to achieve our objective. We first fit a Generalized Additive Model to malaria cases to obtain an accurate predictor, which is then used to predict future observations. Various well-known forecasting methods are compared leading to different results. Based on in-sample mean average percentage error (MAPE), the multiplicative exponential smoothing state space model with multiplicative error and seasonality performed better.

Keywords: Burundi, Forecasting, Malaria, Regressionmodel, State space model.

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7421 The Changing Trend of Collaboration Patterns in the Social Sciences: Institutional Influences on Academic Research in Korea, 2013-2016

Authors: Ho-Dae Chong, Jong-Kil Kim

Abstract:

Collaborative research has become more prevalent and important across disciplines because it stimulates innovation and interaction between scholars. Seeing as existing studies relatively disregarded the institutional conditions triggering collaborative research, this work aims to analyze the changing trend in collaborative work patterns among Korean social scientists. The focus of this research is the performance of social scientists who received research grants through the government’s Social Science Korea (SSK) program. Using quantitative statistical methods, collaborative research patterns in a total of 2,354 papers published under the umbrella of the SSK program in peer-reviewed scholarly journals from 2013 to 2016 were examined to identify changing trends and triggering factors in collaborative research. A notable finding is that the share of collaborative research is overwhelmingly higher than that of individual research. In particular, levels of collaborative research surpassed 70%, increasing much quicker compared to other research done in the social sciences. Additionally, the most common composition of collaborative research was for two or three researchers to conduct joint research as coauthors, and this proportion has also increased steadily. Finally, a strong association between international journals and co-authorship patterns was found for the papers published by SSK program researchers from 2013 to 2016. The SSK program can be seen as the driving force behind collaboration between social scientists. Its emphasis on competition through a merit-based financial support system along with a rigorous evaluation process seems to have influenced researchers to cooperate with those who have similar research interests.

Keywords: Co-authorship, collaboration, competition, cooperation, Social Science Korea, policy.

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7420 Emerging Methods as a Tool for Obtaining Subconscious Feedback in E-commerce and Marketplace

Authors: J. Berčík, A. Mravcová, A. Rusková, P. Jurčišin, R. Virágh

Abstract:

The online world is changing every day. With this comes the emergence and development of new business models. One of them is the sale of several types of products in one place. This type of sales in the form of online marketplaces has undergone a positive development in recent years and represents a kind of alternative to brick-and-mortar shopping centers. The main philosophy is to buy several products under one roof. Examples of popular e-commerce marketplaces are Amazon, eBay or Allegro. Their share of total e-commerce turnover is expected to even double in the coming years. The paper highlights possibilities for testing web applications and online marketplace using emerging methods like stationary eye camera (Eye tracking) and facial analysis (FaceReading).

Keywords: Emerging methods, consumer neuroscience, e-commerce, marketplace, user experience, user interface.

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7419 Feature Selection Methods for an Improved SVM Classifier

Authors: Daniel Morariu, Lucian N. Vintan, Volker Tresp

Abstract:

Text categorization is the problem of classifying text documents into a set of predefined classes. After a preprocessing step, the documents are typically represented as large sparse vectors. When training classifiers on large collections of documents, both the time and memory restrictions can be quite prohibitive. This justifies the application of feature selection methods to reduce the dimensionality of the document-representation vector. In this paper, three feature selection methods are evaluated: Random Selection, Information Gain (IG) and Support Vector Machine feature selection (called SVM_FS). We show that the best results were obtained with SVM_FS method for a relatively small dimension of the feature vector. Also we present a novel method to better correlate SVM kernel-s parameters (Polynomial or Gaussian kernel).

Keywords: Feature Selection, Learning with Kernels, SupportVector Machine, and Classification.

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