Search results for: multivariate statistical process control

Authors: N. A. Samat, S. H. Mohd Imam Ma’arof

Abstract:

Dengue disease is an infectious vector-borne viral disease that is commonly found in tropical and sub-tropical regions, especially in urban and semi-urban areas, around the world and including Malaysia. There is no currently available vaccine or chemotherapy for the prevention or treatment of dengue disease. Therefore prevention and treatment of the disease depend on vector surveillance and control measures. Disease risk mapping has been recognized as an important tool in the prevention and control strategies for diseases. The choice of statistical model used for relative risk estimation is important as a good model will subsequently produce a good disease risk map. Therefore, the aim of this study is to estimate the relative risk for dengue disease based initially on the most common statistic used in disease mapping called Standardized Morbidity Ratio (SMR) and one of the earliest applications of Bayesian methodology called Poisson-gamma model. This paper begins by providing a review of the SMR method, which we then apply to dengue data of Perak, Malaysia. We then fit an extension of the SMR method, which is the Poisson-gamma model. Both results are displayed and compared using graph, tables and maps. Results of the analysis shows that the latter method gives a better relative risk estimates compared with using the SMR. The Poisson-gamma model has been demonstrated can overcome the problem of SMR when there is no observed dengue cases in certain regions. However, covariate adjustment in this model is difficult and there is no possibility for allowing spatial correlation between risks in adjacent areas. The drawbacks of this model have motivated many researchers to propose other alternative methods for estimating the risk.

Keywords: Dengue disease, Disease mapping, Standardized Morbidity Ratio, Poisson-gamma model, Relative risk.

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Authors: Po-Wen Chen, Jin-Yu Wu, Md. Manirul Ali, Yang Peng, Chen-Te Chang, Der-Jun Jan

Abstract:

Dynamics of cathode spot has become a major part of vacuum arc discharge with its high academic interest and wide application potential. In this article, using a three-dimensional statistical model, we simulate the distribution of the ignition probability of a new cathode spot occurring in different magnetic pressure on old cathode spot surface and at different arcing time. This model for the ignition probability of a new cathode spot was proposed in two typical situations, one by the pure isotropic random walk in the absence of an external magnetic field, other by the retrograde motion in external magnetic field, in parallel with the cathode surface. We mainly focus on developed relationship between the ignition probability density distribution of a new cathode spot and the external magnetic field.

Keywords: Cathode spot, vacuum arc discharge, transverse magnetic field, random walk.

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Authors: Sheetal Kumar Parwar, J. Deb Barma, A. Majumder

Abstract:

Submerged arc welding is a very complex process. It is a very efficient and high performance welding process. In this present study an attempt have been done to reduce the welding distortion by increased amount of oxide flux through TiO2 in submerged arc welding process. Care has been taken to avoid the excessiveness of the adding agent for attainment of significant results. Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) based BAT algorithm is used for the parametric optimization purpose in which DEA is used to convert multi response parameters into a single response parameter. The present study also helps to know the effectiveness of the addition of TiO2 in active flux during submerged arc welding process.

Keywords: BAT algorithm, design of experiment, optimization, submerged arc welding.

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Authors: Mahdi Zolfaghari, Seyed Hossein Hosseinian, Hossein Askarian Abyaneh, Mehrdad Abedi

Abstract:

This paper presents a virtual active power filter (VAPF) using vehicle to grid (V2G) technology to maintain power quality requirements. The optimal discrete operation of the power converter of electric vehicle (EV) is based on recognizing desired switching states using the model predictive control (MPC) algorithm. A fast dynamic response, lower total harmonic distortion (THD) and good reference tracking performance are realized through the presented control strategy. The simulation results using MATLAB/Simulink validate the effectiveness of the scheme in improving power quality as well as good dynamic response in power transferring capability.

Keywords: Virtual active power filter, V2G technology, model predictive control, electric vehicle, power quality.

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Authors: Wimalin S. Laosiritaworn, Pongsak Holimchayachotikul

Abstract:

this article proposed a methodology for computer numerical control (CNC) machine scoring. The case study company is a manufacturer of hard disk drive parts in Thailand. In this company, sample of parts manufactured from CNC machine are usually taken randomly for quality inspection. These inspection data were used to make a decision to shut down the machine if it has tendency to produce parts that are out of specification. Large amount of data are produced in this process and data mining could be very useful technique in analyzing them. In this research, data mining techniques were used to construct a machine scoring model called 'machine priority assessment model (MPAM)'. This model helps to ensure that the machine with higher risk of producing defective parts be inspected before those with lower risk. If the defective prone machine is identified sooner, defective part and rework could be reduced hence improving the overall productivity. The results showed that the proposed method can be successfully implemented and approximately 351,000 baht of opportunity cost could have saved in the case study company.

Keywords: Computer Numerical Control, Data Mining, HardDisk Drive.

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Authors: Kayoko Yamamoto

Abstract:

This study focuses on an evaluation of Hokkaido which is the northernmost and largest prefecture by surface area in Japan and particularly on two points: the rivalry between all kinds of land use such as urban land and agricultural and forestry land in various cities and their surrounding areas and the possibilities for forestry biomass in areas other than those mentioned above and grasps which areas require examination of the nature of land use control and guidance through conducting land use analysis at the district level using GIS (Geographic Information Systems). The results of analysis in this study demonstrated that it is essential to divide the whole of Hokkaido into two areas: those within delineated city planning areas and those outside of delineated city planning areas and to conduct an evaluation of each land use control. In delineated urban areas, particularly urban areas, it is essential to re-examine land use from the point of view of compact cities or smart cities along with conducting an evaluation of land use control that focuses on issues of rivalry between all kinds of land use such as urban land and agricultural and forestry land. In areas outside of delineated urban areas, it is desirable to aim to build a specific community recycling range based on forest biomass utilization by conducting an evaluation of land use control concerning the possibilities for forest biomass focusing particularly on forests within and outside of city planning areas.

Keywords: Land Use Control, Urbanization, Forestry Biomass, Geographic Information Systems (GIS), Hokkaido

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Authors: Pongchanun Luangpaiboon, Wanwisa Sarasang

Abstract:

In this paper, performances of shuffled frog leaping algorithm was investigated on the stealth laser dicing process. Effect of problem on the performance of the algorithm was based on the tolerance of meandering data. From the customer specification it could be less than five microns with the target of zero microns. Currently, the meandering levels are unsatisfactory when compared to the customer specification. Firstly, the two-level factorial design was applied to preliminarily study the statistically significant effects of five process variables. In this study one influential process variable is integer. From the experimental results, the new operating condition from the algorithm was superior when compared to the current manufacturing condition.

Keywords: Stealth Laser Dicing Process, Meandering, Metaheuristics, Shuffled Frog Leaping Algorithm.

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Authors: S. Ahmadnejad, Z. Monjamed, M. Pakravannejad, A. Malekian

Abstract:

The investigating and assessing the effects of relaxation training on the levels of state anxiety concerning first year female nursing students at their initial experience in clinical setting. This research is a quasi experimental study that was carried out in nursing and midwifery faculty of Tehran university of medical sciences .The sample of research consists 60 first term female nursing students were selected through convenience and random sampling. 30 of them were the experimental group and 30 of them were in control group. The Instruments of data-collection has been a questionnaire which consists of 3 parts. The first part includes 10 questions about demographic characteristics .the second part includes 20 question about anxiety (test 'Spielberg' ). The 3rd part includes physiological indicators of anxiety (BP, P, R, body temperature). The statistical tests included t-test and
 and fisher test, Data were analyzed by SPSS software.

Keywords: Anxiety, Nursing students, Relaxation

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Authors: Dong Sang Yoo

Abstract:

We consider nonlinear uncertain systems such that a  priori information of the uncertainties is not available. For such  systems, we assume that the upper bound of the uncertainties is  represented as a Fredholm integral equation of the first kind and we  propose an adaptation law that is capable of estimating the upper  bound and design a continuous robust control which renders nonlinear  uncertain systems ultimately bounded.

 

Keywords: Adaptive Control, Estimation, Fredholm Integral, Uncertain System.

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Authors: Andreas Jede, Frank Teuteberg

Abstract:

Cloud computing (CC) has already gained overall appreciation in research and practice. Whereas the willingness to integrate cloud services in various IT environments is still unbroken, the previous CC procurement processes run mostly in an unorganized and non-standardized way. In practice, a sufficiently specific, yet applicable business process for the important acquisition phase is often lacking. And research does not appropriately remedy this deficiency yet. Therefore, this paper introduces a field-tested approach for CC procurement. Based on an extensive literature review and augmented by expert interviews, we designed a model that is validated and further refined through an in-depth real-life case study. For the detailed process description, we apply the event-driven process chain notation (EPC). The gained valuable insights into the case study may help CC research to shift to a more socio-technical area. For practice, next to giving useful organizational instructions we will provide extended checklists and lessons learned.

Keywords: Cloud Procurement Process, IT-Organization, Event-driven Process Chain, In-depth Case Study.

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Authors: R. Sharma, M. Gopal

Abstract:

This paper presents a new problem solving approach that is able to generate optimal policy solution for finite-state stochastic sequential decision-making problems with high data efficiency. The proposed algorithm iteratively builds and improves an approximate Markov Decision Process (MDP) model along with cost-to-go value approximates by generating finite length trajectories through the state-space. The approach creates a synergy between an approximate evolving model and approximate cost-to-go values to produce a sequence of improving policies finally converging to the optimal policy through an intelligent and structured search of the policy space. The approach modifies the policy update step of the policy iteration so as to result in a speedy and stable convergence to the optimal policy. We apply the algorithm to a non-holonomic mobile robot control problem and compare its performance with other Reinforcement Learning (RL) approaches, e.g., a) Q-learning, b) Watkins Q(λ), c) SARSA(λ).

Keywords: Markov Decision Process (MDP), Mobile robot, Policy iteration, Simulation.

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Authors: Arishai Akraudom

Abstract:

The objective of this research was to study the themes of alcoholic beverage advertisements in Thailand after the enactment of the 2008 Alcoholic Beverage Control Act. Data was collected through textual analysis of 35 television and cinema advertisements for alcoholic beverage products broadcast in Thailand. Nine themes were identified, seven of which were themes that had previously been used before the new law (i.e. power, competition, friendship, Thainess, success, romance and safety) and two of which were new themes (volunteerism and conservation) that were introduced as a form of adaptation and negotiation in response to the new law.

Keywords: Alcoholic Beverage Control Act 2008, Alcohol Advertising, Analysis of Themes, Narrative Structure, Health Communication.

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Authors: Jagdeep Singh, Prem Singh

Abstract:

Milk is considered as an essential and complete food. The present study was conducted at Milk Plant Mohali especially in reference to the procurement section where the cash inflow was maximum, with the objective to achieve higher productivity and reduce wastage of milk. In milk plant it was observed that during the month of Jan-2014 to March-2014 the average procurement of milk was Rs. 4, 19, 361 liter per month and cost of procurement of milk is Rs 35/- per liter. The total cost of procurement thereby equal to Rs. 1crore 46 lakh per month, but there was mismatch in procurementproduction of milk, which leads to an average loss of Rs. 12, 94, 405 per month. To solve the procurement-production problem Quality Control Tools like brainstorming, Flow Chart, Cause effect diagram and Pareto analysis are applied wherever applicable. With the successful implementation of Quality Control tools an average saving of Rs. 4, 59, 445 per month is done.

Keywords: Milk, Procurement-demand, quality control tools.

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Authors: P. Sawatnatee, S. Udomsuk, K-N. Areerak, K-L. Areerak, A. Srikaew

Abstract:

The paper presents how to design the indirect vector control of three-phase induction motor drive systems using the artificial intelligence technique called the adaptive tabu search. The results from the simulation and the experiment show that the drive system with the controller designed from the proposed method can provide the best output speed response compared with those of the conventional method. The controller design using the proposed technique can be used to create the software package for engineers to achieve the optimal controller design of the induction motor speed control based on the indirect vector concept.

 

Keywords: Indirect Vector Control, Induction Motor, Adaptive Tabu Search, Control Design, Artificial Intelligence.

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Authors: S. Poonsawat, T. Kulworawanichpong

Abstract:

This paper presents the speed regulation scheme of a small brushless dc motor (BLDC motor) with trapezoidal back-emf consideration. The proposed control strategy uses the proportional controller in which the proportional gain, kp, is appropriately adjusted by using genetic algorithms. As a result, the proportional control can perform well in order to compensate the BLDC motor with load disturbance. This confirms that the proposed speed regulation scheme gives satisfactory results.

Keywords: BLDC motor, proportional controller, genetic algorithms.

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Authors: Sadia Afroza, Rakiba Rouf

Abstract:

Road safety and associated behaviors have received significant attention in recent years, reflecting general public concern. This paper portrays a statistical scenario of the young drivers in UAE with emphasis on various concern points of young driver’s behavior and license issuance. Although there are many factors contributing to road accidents, statistically it is evident that age plays a major role in road accidents. Despite ensuring strict road safety laws enforced by the UAE government, there is a staggering correlation among road accidents and young driver’s at UAE. However, private organizations like BMW and RoadSafetyUAE have extended its support on conducting surveys on driver’s behavior with an aim to ensure road safety. Various strategies such as road safety law enforcement, license issuance, adapting new technologies like safety cameras and raising awareness can be implemented to improve the road safety concerns among young drivers.

Keywords: Driving behavior, GLDS, road safety, UAE drivers, young drivers.

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Authors: T. Abdelkrim, K. Benamrane, B. Bezza, Aeh Benkhelifa, A. Borni

Abstract:

This paper proposes a regulation method of back-to-back connected three-level converters in order to reduce the torque ripple in induction motor. First part is dedicated to the presentation of the feedback control of three-level PWM rectifier. In the second part, three-level NPC voltage source inverter balancing DC bus algorithm is presented. A theoretical analysis with a complete simulation of the system is presented to prove the excellent performance of the proposed technique.

Keywords: Back-to-back connection, Feedback control, Neutral-point balance, Three-level converter, Torque ripple.

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Authors: Daniel Amariei, Calin O. Miclosina, Ion Vela, Marius Tufoi, Cornel Mituletu

Abstract:

Even it has been recognized that Shape Memory Alloys (SMA) have a significant potential for deployment actuators, the number of applications of SMA-based actuators to the present day is still quite small, due to the need of deep understanding of the thermo-mechanical behavior of SMA, causing an important need for a mathematical model able to describe all thermo-mechanical properties of SMA by relatively simple final set of constitutive equations. SMAs offer attractive potentials such as: reversible strains of several percent, generation of high recovery stresses and high power / weight ratios. The paper tries to provide an overview of the shape memory functions and a presentation of the designed and developed temperature control system used for a gripper actuated by two pairs of differential SMA active springs. An experimental setup was established, using electrical energy for actuator-s springs heating process. As for holding the temperature of the SMA springs at certain level for a long time was developed a control system in order to avoid the active elements overheating.

Keywords: active element, actuator, model, Nitinol, prehension

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Authors: Mauricio Pe˜na, Adriana Luna, Carol Rodr´ıguez

Abstract:

In the following article we begin from a multi-parameter unstable nonlinear model of a Quadrotor. We design a control to stabilize and assure the attitude of the device, starting off a linearized system at the equilibrium point of the null angles of Euler (hover), which provides us a control with limited capacities at small angles of rotation of the vehicle in three dimensions. In order to clear this obstacle, we propose the identification of models in different angles by means of simulations and the design of a controller specifically implemented for the identification task, that in future works will allow the development of controllers according to fast and agile angles of Euler for Quadrotor.

Keywords: Quadrotor, model, control, identification.

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Authors: Mansour A. Mohamed, George G. Karady, Ali M. Yousef

Abstract:

This paper proposes transient angle stability agents to enhance power system stability. The proposed transient angle stability agents divided into two strategy agents. The first strategy agent is a prediction agent that will predict power system instability. According to the prediction agent-s output, the second strategy agent, which is a control agent, is automatically calculating the amount of active power reduction that can stabilize the system and initiating a control action. The control action considered is turbine fast valving. The proposed strategies are applied to a realistic power system, the IEEE 50- generator system. Results show that the proposed technique can be used on-line for power system instability prediction and control.

Keywords: Multi-agents, Fast Valving, Power System Transient Stability, Prediction methods,

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Authors: M. R. Vaezi, R. Ghasemi, A. Akramizadeh

Abstract:

Frequency stability of microgrids under islanded operation attracts particular attention recently. A new cooperative frequency control strategy based on centralized multi-agent system (CMAS) is proposed in this study. Based on this strategy, agents sent data and furthermore each component has its own to center operating decisions (MGCC).After deciding on the information, they are returned. Frequency control strategies include primary and secondary frequency control and disposal of multi-stage load in which this study will also provide a method and algorithm for load shedding. This could also be a big problem for the performance of micro-grid in times of disaster. The simulation results show the promising performance of the proposed structure of the controller based on multi agent systems.

Keywords: Frequency Control, Islanded Micro-grid, Load shedding, Multi-agent System.

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Authors: José A. Menezes, Giordano Cabral, Bruno T. Gomes

Abstract:

Choosing good features is an essential part of machine learning. Recent techniques aim to automate this process. For instance, feature learning intends to learn the transformation of raw data into a useful representation to machine learning tasks. In automatic audio classification tasks, this is interesting since the audio, usually complex information, needs to be transformed into a computationally convenient input to process. Another technique tries to generate features by searching a feature space. Genetic algorithms, for instance, have being used to generate audio features by combining or modifying them. We find this approach particularly interesting and, despite the undeniable advances of feature learning approaches, we wanted to take a step forward in the use of genetic algorithms to find audio features, combining them with more conventional methods, like PCA, and inserting search control mechanisms, such as constraints over a confusion matrix. This work presents the results obtained on particular audio classification problems.

Keywords: Feature generation, feature learning, genetic algorithm, music information retrieval.

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Authors: Xie Kefeng, Zhang He

Abstract:

For the stability and control demand of offshore small floating platform, a 2-HUS/U parallel mechanism was presented as offshore platform. Inverse kinematics was obtained by institutional constraint equation, and the dynamic model of offshore 2-HUS/U parallel platform was derived based on rigid body’s Lagrangian method. The equivalent moment of inertia, damping and driving force/torque variation of offshore 2-HUS/U parallel platform were analyzed. A numerical example shows that, for parallel platform of given motion, system’s equivalent inertia changes 1.25 times maximally. During the movement of platform, they change dramatically with the system configuration and have coupling characteristics. The maximum equivalent drive torque is 800 N. At the same time, the curve of platform’s driving force/torque is smooth and has good sine features. The control system needs to be adjusted according to kinetic equation during stability and control and it provides a basis for the optimization of control system.

Keywords: 2-HUS/U platform, Dynamics, Lagrange, Parallel platform.

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Authors: Walid S. Alfuhaid, Saud A. Alghamdi, John M. Watkins, M. Edwin Sawan

Abstract:

Designing a controller for stochastic decentralized interconnected large scale systems usually involves a high degree of complexity and computation ability. Noise, observability, and controllability of all system states, connectivity, and channel bandwidth are other constraints to design procedures for distributed large scale systems. The quasi-steady state model investigated in this paper is a reduced order model of the original system using singular perturbation techniques. This paper results in an optimal control synthesis to design an observer based feedback controller by standard stochastic control theory techniques using Linear Quadratic Gaussian (LQG) approach and Kalman filter design with less complexity and computation requirements. Numerical example is given at the end to demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed method.

Keywords: Decentralized, optimal control, output, singular perturb.

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Authors: Reza Hossseynie, Amir Jafari

Abstract:

This paper presents a method for steering velocity bounded mobile robots in environments with partially known stationary obstacles. The exact location of obstacles is unknown and only a probability distribution associated with the location of the obstacles is known. Kinematic model of a 2-wheeled differential drive robot is used as the model of mobile robot. The presented control strategy uses the Artificial Potential Field (APF) method for devising a desired direction of movement for the robot at each instant of time while the Constrained Directions Control (CDC) uses the generated direction to produce the control signals required for steering the robot. The location of each obstacle is considered to be the mean value of the 2D probability distribution and similarly, the magnitude of the electric charge in the APF is set as the trace of covariance matrix of the location probability distribution. The method not only captures the challenges of planning the path (i.e. probabilistic nature of the location of unknown obstacles), but it also addresses the output saturation which is considered to be an important issue from the control perspective. Moreover, velocity of the robot can be controlled during the steering. For example, the velocity of robot can be reduced in close vicinity of obstacles and target to ensure safety. Finally, the control strategy is simulated for different scenarios to show how the method can be put into practice.

Keywords: Steering, obstacle avoidance, mobile robots, constrained directions control, artificial potential field.

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Authors: Parvinder Singh Sandhu, Gurdev Singh

Abstract:

Metrics is the process by which numbers or symbols are assigned to attributes of entities in the real world in such a way as to describe them according to clearly defined rules. Software metrics are instruments or ways to measuring all the aspect of software product. These metrics are used throughout a software project to assist in estimation, quality control, productivity assessment, and project control. Object oriented software metrics focus on measurements that are applied to the class and other characteristics. These measurements convey the software engineer to the behavior of the software and how changes can be made that will reduce complexity and improve the continuing capability of the software. Object oriented software metric can be classified in two types static and dynamic. Static metrics are concerned with all the aspects of measuring by static analysis of software and dynamic metrics are concerned with all the measuring aspect of the software at run time. Major work done before, was focusing on static metric. Also some work has been done in the field of dynamic nature of the software measurements. But research in this area is demanding for more work. In this paper we give a set of dynamic metrics specifically for polymorphism in object oriented system.

Keywords: Metrics, Software, Quality, Object oriented system, Polymorphism.

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Authors: Igor Astrov, Mikhail Pikkov

Abstract:

This paper focuses on a critical component of the situational awareness (SA), the neural control of depth flight of an autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV). Constant depth flight is a challenging but important task for AUVs to achieve high level of autonomy under adverse conditions. With the SA strategy, we proposed a multirate neural control of an AUV trajectory using neural network model reference controller for a nontrivial mid-small size AUV "r2D4" stochastic model. This control system has been demonstrated and evaluated by simulation of diving maneuvers using software package Simulink. From the simulation results it can be seen that the chosen AUV model is stable in the presence of high noise, and also can be concluded that the fast SA of similar AUV systems with economy in energy of batteries can be asserted during the underwater missions in search-and-rescue operations.

Keywords: Autonomous underwater vehicles, multirate systems, neurocontrollers, situational awareness.

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Authors: T. C. Manjunath, B. Bandyopadhyay

Abstract:

Active vibration control is an important problem in structures. The objective of active vibration control is to reduce the vibrations of a system by automatic modification of the system-s structural response. In this paper, the modeling and design of a fast output sampling feedback controller for a smart flexible beam system embedded with shear sensors and actuators for SISO system using Timoshenko beam theory is proposed. FEM theory, Timoshenko beam theory and the state space techniques are used to model the aluminum cantilever beam. For the SISO case, the beam is divided into 5 finite elements and the control actuator is placed at finite element position 1, whereas the sensor is varied from position 2 to 5, i.e., from the nearby fixed end to the free end. Controllers are designed using FOS method and the performance of the designed FOS controller is evaluated for vibration control for 4 SISO models of the same plant. The effect of placing the sensor at different locations on the beam is observed and the performance of the controller is evaluated for vibration control. Some of the limitations of the Euler-Bernoulli theory such as the neglection of shear and axial displacement are being considered here, thus giving rise to an accurate beam model. Embedded shear sensors and actuators have been considered in this paper instead of the surface mounted sensors and actuators for vibration suppression because of lot of advantages. In controlling the vibration modes, the first three dominant modes of vibration of the system are considered.

Keywords: Smart structure, Timoshenko beam theory, Fast output sampling feedback control, Finite Element Method, State space model, SISO, Vibration control, LMI

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Authors: C. D. Naiju, K. Annamalai, Siva Prasad Darla, Y. Murali Krishna

Abstract:

This work presents the results of a study carried out to determine the sliding wear behavior and its effect on the process parameters of components manufactured by direct metal laser sintering (DMLS). A standard procedure and specimen had been used in the present study to find the wear behavior. Using Taguchi-s experimental technique, an orthogonal array of modified L8 had been developed. Sliding wear testing using pin-on-disk machine was carried out and analysis of variance (ANOVA) technique was used to investigate the effect of process parameters and to identify the main process parameter that influences the properties of wear behavior on the DMLS components. It has been found that part orientation, one of the selected process parameter had more influence on wear as compared to other selected process parameters.

Keywords: ANOVA, DMLS, Taguchi, Wear.

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Authors: Nishi Bhuvandas, P. V. Timbadiya, P. L. Patel, P. D. Porey

Abstract:

Recent perceived climate variability raises concerns with unprecedented hydrological phenomena and extremes. Distribution and circulation of the waters of the Earth become increasingly difficult to determine because of additional uncertainty related to anthropogenic emissions. The world wide observed changes in the large-scale hydrological cycle have been related to an increase in the observed temperature over several decades. Although the effect of change in climate on hydrology provides a general picture of possible hydrological global change, new tools and frameworks for modelling hydrological series with nonstationary characteristics at finer scales, are required for assessing climate change impacts. Of the downscaling techniques, dynamic downscaling is usually based on the use of Regional Climate Models (RCMs), which generate finer resolution output based on atmospheric physics over a region using General Circulation Model (GCM) fields as boundary conditions. However, RCMs are not expected to capture the observed spatial precipitation extremes at a fine cell scale or at a basin scale. Statistical downscaling derives a statistical or empirical relationship between the variables simulated by the GCMs, called predictors, and station-scale hydrologic variables, called predictands. The main focus of the paper is on the need for using statistical downscaling techniques for projection of local hydrometeorological variables under climate change scenarios. The projections can be then served as a means of input source to various hydrologic models to obtain streamflow, evapotranspiration, soil moisture and other hydrological variables of interest.

Keywords: Climate Change, Downscaling, GCM, RCM.

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