Search results for: residual life prediction.
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 2729

Search results for: residual life prediction.

1559 A Grid-based Neural Network Framework for Multimodal Biometrics

Authors: Sitalakshmi Venkataraman

Abstract:

Recent scientific investigations indicate that multimodal biometrics overcome the technical limitations of unimodal biometrics, making them ideally suited for everyday life applications that require a reliable authentication system. However, for a successful adoption of multimodal biometrics, such systems would require large heterogeneous datasets with complex multimodal fusion and privacy schemes spanning various distributed environments. From experimental investigations of current multimodal systems, this paper reports the various issues related to speed, error-recovery and privacy that impede the diffusion of such systems in real-life. This calls for a robust mechanism that caters to the desired real-time performance, robust fusion schemes, interoperability and adaptable privacy policies. The main objective of this paper is to present a framework that addresses the abovementioned issues by leveraging on the heterogeneous resource sharing capacities of Grid services and the efficient machine learning capabilities of artificial neural networks (ANN). Hence, this paper proposes a Grid-based neural network framework for adopting multimodal biometrics with the view of overcoming the barriers of performance, privacy and risk issues that are associated with shared heterogeneous multimodal data centres. The framework combines the concept of Grid services for reliable brokering and privacy policy management of shared biometric resources along with a momentum back propagation ANN (MBPANN) model of machine learning for efficient multimodal fusion and authentication schemes. Real-life applications would be able to adopt the proposed framework to cater to the varying business requirements and user privacies for a successful diffusion of multimodal biometrics in various day-to-day transactions.

Keywords: Back Propagation, Grid Services, MultimodalBiometrics, Neural Networks.

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1558 Finite Element Modeling of Rotating Mixing of Toothpaste

Authors: Inamullah Bhatti, Ahsanullah Baloch, Khadija Qureshi

Abstract:

The objective of this research is to examine the shear thinning behaviour of mixing flow of non-Newtonian fluid like toothpaste in the dissolution container with rotating stirrer. The problem under investigation is related to the chemical industry. Mixing of fluid is performed in a cylindrical container with rotating stirrer, where stirrer is eccentrically placed on the lid of the container. For the simulation purpose the associated motion of the fluid is considered as revolving of the container, with stick stirrer. For numerical prediction, a time-stepping finite element algorithm in a cylindrical polar coordinate system is adopted based on semi-implicit Taylor-Galerkin/pressure-correction scheme. Numerical solutions are obtained for non-Newtonian fluids employing power law model. Variations with power law index have been analysed, with respect to the flow structure and pressure drop.

Keywords: finite element simulation, mixing fluid, rheology, rotating flow, toothpaste

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1557 Quality Classification and Monitoring Using Adaptive Metric Distance and Neural Networks: Application in Pickling Process

Authors: S. Bouhouche, M. Lahreche, S. Ziani, J. Bast

Abstract:

Modern manufacturing facilities are large scale, highly complex, and operate with large number of variables under closed loop control. Early and accurate fault detection and diagnosis for these plants can minimise down time, increase the safety of plant operations, and reduce manufacturing costs. Fault detection and isolation is more complex particularly in the case of the faulty analog control systems. Analog control systems are not equipped with monitoring function where the process parameters are continually visualised. In this situation, It is very difficult to find the relationship between the fault importance and its consequences on the product failure. We consider in this paper an approach to fault detection and analysis of its effect on the production quality using an adaptive centring and scaling in the pickling process in cold rolling. The fault appeared on one of the power unit driving a rotary machine, this machine can not track a reference speed given by another machine. The length of metal loop is then in continuous oscillation, this affects the product quality. Using a computerised data acquisition system, the main machine parameters have been monitored. The fault has been detected and isolated on basis of analysis of monitored data. Normal and faulty situation have been obtained by an artificial neural network (ANN) model which is implemented to simulate the normal and faulty status of rotary machine. Correlation between the product quality defined by an index and the residual is used to quality classification.

Keywords: Modeling, fault detection and diagnosis, parameters estimation, neural networks, Fault Detection and Diagnosis (FDD), pickling process.

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1556 A Neural Network Approach in Predicting the Blood Glucose Level for Diabetic Patients

Authors: Zarita Zainuddin, Ong Pauline, C. Ardil

Abstract:

Diabetes Mellitus is a chronic metabolic disorder, where the improper management of the blood glucose level in the diabetic patients will lead to the risk of heart attack, kidney disease and renal failure. This paper attempts to enhance the diagnostic accuracy of the advancing blood glucose levels of the diabetic patients, by combining principal component analysis and wavelet neural network. The proposed system makes separate blood glucose prediction in the morning, afternoon, evening and night intervals, using dataset from one patient covering a period of 77 days. Comparisons of the diagnostic accuracy with other neural network models, which use the same dataset are made. The comparison results showed overall improved accuracy, which indicates the effectiveness of this proposed system.

Keywords: Diabetes Mellitus, principal component analysis, time-series, wavelet neural network.

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1555 Prediction of Phenolic Compound Migration Process through Soil Media using Artificial Neural Network Approach

Authors: Supriya Pal, Kalyan Adhikari, Somnath Mukherjee, Sudipta Ghosh

Abstract:

This study presents the application of artificial neural network for modeling the phenolic compound migration through vertical soil column. A three layered feed forward neural network with back propagation training algorithm was developed using forty eight experimental data sets obtained from laboratory fixed bed vertical column tests. The input parameters used in the model were the influent concentration of phenol(mg/L) on the top end of the soil column, depth of the soil column (cm), elapsed time after phenol injection (hr), percentage of clay (%), percentage of silt (%) in soils. The output of the ANN was the effluent phenol concentration (mg/L) from the bottom end of the soil columns. The ANN predicted results were compared with the experimental results of the laboratory tests and the accuracy of the ANN model was evaluated.

Keywords: Modeling, Neural Networks, Phenol, Soil media

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1554 Application of Turbulence Modeling in Computational Fluid Dynamics for Airfoil Simulations

Authors: Mohammed Bilal

Abstract:

The precise prediction of aerodynamic behavior is necessary for the design and optimization of airfoils for a variety of applications. Turbulence, a phenomenon of complex and irregular flow, significantly affects the aerodynamic properties of airfoils. Therefore, turbulence modeling is essential for accurately predicting the behavior of airfoils in simulations. This study investigates five commonly employed turbulence models: Spalart-Allmaras (SA) model, k-epsilon model, k-omega model, Reynolds Stress Model (RSM), and Large Eddy Simulation (LES) model. The paper includes a comparison of the models' precision, computational expense, and applicability to various flow conditions. The strengths and weaknesses of each model are highlighted, allowing researchers and engineers to make informed decisions regarding simulations of specific airfoils. Unquestionably, the continuous development of turbulence modeling will contribute to further improvements in airfoil design and optimization, which will be advantageous to numerous industries.

Keywords: Computational fluid dynamics, airfoil, turbulence, aircraft.

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1553 Clogging Reduction Design Factor for Geosynthetics Used in Sustainable Urban Drainage Systems and Roads

Authors: Jaime Carpio-García, Elena Blanco-Fernández, Javier González-Fernández, Daniel Castro-Fresno

Abstract:

Sustainable urban drainage systems (SUDS) are more often used in order to prevent floods, water treatment, fight against pollution, urban heat island effect, and global warming in applications like green roofs, permeable pavements, and others. Furthermore, geosynthetics are also worldwide used as a part of drainage systems in road construction. Geotextiles are an essential part of both, and one of the main geotextile properties in those applications is permeability, whose behavior is not well established along its service life. In this paper, clogging reduction design factors for an estimated service life of 25 years are experimentally obtained for five different geotextiles used in SUDS and roads combined with two different soils and with two pollutants, motor oil, and lime, in order to evaluate chemical clogging, too. The effect of characteristic opening size and other characteristics of the geosynthetics are also discussed in order to give civil engineers, together with the clogging reduction factors, a better long-time design of geotextiles used in their SUDS and roads.

Keywords: Geotextiles, drainage, clogging, reduction factor.

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1552 The Origin, Diffusion and a Comparison of Ordinary Differential Equations Numerical Solutions Used by SIR Model in Order to Predict SARS-CoV-2 in Nordic Countries

Authors: Gleda Kutrolli, Maksi Kutrolli, Etjon Meco

Abstract:

SARS-CoV-2 virus is currently one of the most infectious pathogens for humans. It started in China at the end of 2019 and now it is spread in all over the world. The origin and diffusion of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic, is analysed based on the discussion of viral phylogeny theory. With the aim of understanding the spread of infection in the affected countries, it is crucial to modelize the spread of the virus and simulate its activity. In this paper, the prediction of coronavirus outbreak is done by using SIR model without vital dynamics, applying different numerical technique solving ordinary differential equations (ODEs). We find out that ABM and MRT methods perform better than other techniques and that the activity of the virus will decrease in April but it never cease (for some time the activity will remain low) and the next cycle will start in the middle July 2020 for Norway and Denmark, and October 2020 for Sweden, and September for Finland.

Keywords: Forecasting, ordinary differential equations, SARS-CoV-2 epidemic, SIR model.

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1551 Tools for Analysis and Optimization of Standalone Green Microgrids

Authors: William Anderson, Kyle Kobold, Oleg Yakimenko

Abstract:

Green microgrids using mostly renewable energy (RE) for generation, are complex systems with inherent nonlinear dynamics. Among a variety of different optimization tools there are only a few ones that adequately consider this complexity. This paper evaluates applicability of two somewhat similar optimization tools tailored for standalone RE microgrids and also assesses a machine learning tool for performance prediction that can enhance the reliability of any chosen optimization tool. It shows that one of these microgrid optimization tools has certain advantages over another and presents a detailed routine of preparing input data to simulate RE microgrid behavior. The paper also shows how neural-network-based predictive modeling can be used to validate and forecast solar power generation based on weather time series data, which improves the overall quality of standalone RE microgrid analysis.

Keywords: Microgrid, renewable energy, complex systems, optimization, predictive modeling, neural networks.

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1550 Neuro-Fuzzy Network Based On Extended Kalman Filtering for Financial Time Series

Authors: Chokri Slim

Abstract:

The neural network's performance can be measured by efficiency and accuracy. The major disadvantages of neural network approach are that the generalization capability of neural networks is often significantly low, and it may take a very long time to tune the weights in the net to generate an accurate model for a highly complex and nonlinear systems. This paper presents a novel Neuro-fuzzy architecture based on Extended Kalman filter. To test the performance and applicability of the proposed neuro-fuzzy model, simulation study of nonlinear complex dynamic system is carried out. The proposed method can be applied to an on-line incremental adaptive learning for the prediction of financial time series. A benchmark case studie is used to demonstrate that the proposed model is a superior neuro-fuzzy modeling technique.

Keywords: Neuro-fuzzy, Extended Kalman filter, nonlinear systems, financial time series.

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1549 Numerical and Infrared Mapping of Temperature in Heat Affected Zone during Plasma Arc Cutting of Mild Steel

Authors: Dalvir Singh, Somnath Chattopadhyaya

Abstract:

During welding or flame cutting of metals, the prediction of heat affected zone (HAZ) is critical. There is need to develop a simple mathematical model to calculate the temperature variation in HAZ and derivative analysis can be used for this purpose. This study presents analytical solution for heat transfer through conduction in mild steel plate. The homogeneous and nonhomogeneous boundary conditions are single variables. The full field analytical solutions of temperature measurement, subjected to local heating source, are derived first by method of separation of variables followed with the experimental visualization using infrared imaging. Based on the present work, it is suggested that appropriate heat input characteristics controls the temperature distribution in and around HAZ.

Keywords: Conduction Heat Transfer, Heat Affected Zone (HAZ), Infra-Red Imaging, Numerical Method, Orthogonal Function, Plasma Arc Cutting, Separation of Variables, Temperature Measurement.

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1548 Determining Earthquake Performances of Existing Reinforced Concrete Buildings by Using ANN

Authors: Musa H. Arslan, Murat Ceylan, Tayfun Koyuncu

Abstract:

In this study, an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) analytical method has been developed for analyzing earthquake performances of the Reinforced Concrete (RC) buildings. 66 RC buildings with four to ten storeys were subjected to performance analysis according to the parameters which are the existing material, loading and geometrical characteristics of the buildings. The selected parameters have been thought to be effective on the performance of RC buildings. In the performance analyses stage of the study, level of performance possible to be shown by these buildings in case of an earthquake was determined on the basis of the 4-grade performance levels specified in Turkish Earthquake Code-2007 (TEC-2007). After obtaining the 4-grade performance level, selected 23 parameters of each building have been matched with the performance level. In this stage, ANN-based fast evaluation algorithm mentioned above made an economic and rapid evaluation of four to ten storey RC buildings. According to the study, the prediction accuracy of ANN has been found about 74%.

Keywords: Artificial neural network, earthquake, performance, reinforced concrete.

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1547 A Neuro-Fuzzy Approach Based Voting Scheme for Fault Tolerant Systems Using Artificial Bee Colony Training

Authors: D. Uma Devi, P. Seetha Ramaiah

Abstract:

Voting algorithms are extensively used to make decisions in fault tolerant systems where each redundant module gives inconsistent outputs. Popular voting algorithms include majority voting, weighted voting, and inexact majority voters. Each of these techniques suffers from scenarios where agreements do not exist for the given voter inputs. This has been successfully overcome in literature using fuzzy theory. Our previous work concentrated on a neuro-fuzzy algorithm where training using the neuro system substantially improved the prediction result of the voting system. Weight training of Neural Network is sub-optimal. This study proposes to optimize the weights of the Neural Network using Artificial Bee Colony algorithm. Experimental results show the proposed system improves the decision making of the voting algorithms.

Keywords: Voting algorithms, Fault tolerance, Fault masking, Neuro-Fuzzy System (NFS), Artificial Bee Colony (ABC)

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1546 Performance Evaluation and Modeling of a Conical Plunging Jet Aerator

Authors: Surinder Deswal, D. V. S. Verma

Abstract:

Aeration by a plunging water jet is an energetically attractive way to effect oxygen-transfer than conventional oxygenation systems. In the present study, a new type of conical shaped plunging aeration device is fabricated to generate hollow inclined ined plunging jets (jet plunge angle of π/3 ) to investigate its oxygen transfer capacity. The results suggest that the volumetric oxygen-transfer coefficient and oxygen-transfer efficiency of the conical plunging jet aerator are competitive with other types of aeration systems. Relationships of volumetric oxygen-transfer coefficient with jet power per unit volume and jet parameters are also proposed. The suggested relationships predict the volumetric oxygentransfer coefficient within a scatter of ± 15% . Further, the application of Support Vector Machines on the experimental data revealed its utility in the prediction of volumetric oxygen-transfer coefficient and development of conical plunging jet aerators.

Keywords: Conical plunging jet, oxygen-transfer efficiency, support vector machines, volumetric oxygen-transfer coefficient.

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1545 Optimization of Assembly and Welding of Complex 3D Structures on the Base of Modeling with Use of Finite Elements Method

Authors: M. N. Zelenin, V. S. Mikhailov, R. P. Zhivotovsky

Abstract:

It is known that residual welding deformations give negative effect to processability and operational quality of welded structures, complicating their assembly and reducing strength. Therefore, selection of optimal technology, ensuring minimum welding deformations, is one of the main goals in developing a technology for manufacturing of welded structures. Through years, JSC SSTC has been developing a theory for estimation of welding deformations and practical activities for reducing and compensating such deformations during welding process. During long time a methodology was used, based on analytic dependence. This methodology allowed defining volumetric changes of metal due to welding heating and subsequent cooling. However, dependences for definition of structures deformations, arising as a result of volumetric changes of metal in the weld area, allowed performing calculations only for simple structures, such as units, flat sections and sections with small curvature. In case of complex 3D structures, estimations on the base of analytic dependences gave significant errors. To eliminate this shortage, it was suggested to use finite elements method for resolving of deformation problem. Here, one shall first calculate volumes of longitudinal and transversal shortenings of welding joints using method of analytic dependences and further, with obtained shortenings, calculate forces, which action is equivalent to the action of active welding stresses. Further, a finiteelements model of the structure is developed and equivalent forces are added to this model. Having results of calculations, an optimal sequence of assembly and welding is selected and special measures to reduce and compensate welding deformations are developed and taken.

Keywords: Finite elements method, modeling, expected welding deformations, welding, assembling.

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1544 Torsion Behavior of Steel Fibered High Strength Self Compacting Concrete Beams Reinforced by GFRB Bars

Authors: Khaled S. Ragab, Ahmed S. Eisa

Abstract:

This paper investigates experimentally and analytically the torsion behavior of steel fibered high strength self compacting concrete beams reinforced by GFRP bars. Steel fibered high strength self compacting concrete (SFHSSCC) and GFRP bars became in the recent decades a very important materials in the structural engineering field. The use of GFRP bars to replace steel bars has emerged as one of the many techniques put forward to enhance the corrosion resistance of reinforced concrete structures. High strength concrete and GFRP bars attract designers and architects as it allows improving the durability as well as the esthetics of a construction. One of the trends in SFHSSCC structures is to provide their ductile behavior and additional goal is to limit development and propagation of macro-cracks in the body of SFHSSCC elements. SFHSSCC and GFRP bars are tough, improve the workability, enhance the corrosion resistance of reinforced concrete structures, and demonstrate high residual strengths after appearance of the first crack. Experimental studies were carried out to select effective fiber contents. Three types of volume fraction from hooked shape steel fibers are used in this study, the hooked steel fibers were evaluated in volume fractions ranging between 0.0%, 0.75% and 1.5%. The beams shape is chosen to create the required forces (i.e. torsion and bending moments simultaneously) on the test zone. A total of seven beams were tested, classified into three groups. All beams, have 200cm length, cross section of 10×20cm, longitudinal bottom reinforcement of 3

Keywords: Self compacting concrete, torsion behavior, steel fiber, steel fiber reinforced high strength self compacting concrete (SFRHSCC), GFRP bars.

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1543 Settlement Prediction for Tehran Subway Line-3 via FLAC3D and ANFIS

Authors: S. A. Naeini, A. Khalili

Abstract:

Nowadays, tunnels with different applications are developed, and most of them are related to subway tunnels. The excavation of shallow tunnels that pass under municipal utilities is very important, and the surface settlement control is an important factor in the design. The study sought to analyze the settlement and also to find an appropriate model in order to predict the behavior of the tunnel in Tehran subway line-3. The displacement in these sections is also determined by using numerical analyses and numerical modeling. In addition, the Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) method is utilized by Hybrid training algorithm. The database pertinent to the optimum network was obtained from 46 subway tunnels in Iran and Turkey which have been constructed by the new Austrian tunneling method (NATM) with similar parameters based on type of their soil. The surface settlement was measured, and the acquired results were compared to the predicted values. The results disclosed that computing intelligence is a good substitute for numerical modeling.

Keywords: Settlement, subway line, FLAC3D, ANFIS method.

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1542 GA Based Optimal Feature Extraction Method for Functional Data Classification

Authors: Jun Wan, Zehua Chen, Yingwu Chen, Zhidong Bai

Abstract:

Classification is an interesting problem in functional data analysis (FDA), because many science and application problems end up with classification problems, such as recognition, prediction, control, decision making, management, etc. As the high dimension and high correlation in functional data (FD), it is a key problem to extract features from FD whereas keeping its global characters, which relates to the classification efficiency and precision to heavens. In this paper, a novel automatic method which combined Genetic Algorithm (GA) and classification algorithm to extract classification features is proposed. In this method, the optimal features and classification model are approached via evolutional study step by step. It is proved by theory analysis and experiment test that this method has advantages in improving classification efficiency, precision and robustness whereas using less features and the dimension of extracted classification features can be controlled.

Keywords: Classification, functional data, feature extraction, genetic algorithm, wavelet.

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1541 One-Class Support Vector Machines for Protein-Protein Interactions Prediction

Authors: Hany Alashwal, Safaai Deris, Razib M. Othman

Abstract:

Predicting protein-protein interactions represent a key step in understanding proteins functions. This is due to the fact that proteins usually work in context of other proteins and rarely function alone. Machine learning techniques have been applied to predict protein-protein interactions. However, most of these techniques address this problem as a binary classification problem. Although it is easy to get a dataset of interacting proteins as positive examples, there are no experimentally confirmed non-interacting proteins to be considered as negative examples. Therefore, in this paper we solve this problem as a one-class classification problem using one-class support vector machines (SVM). Using only positive examples (interacting protein pairs) in training phase, the one-class SVM achieves accuracy of about 80%. These results imply that protein-protein interaction can be predicted using one-class classifier with comparable accuracy to the binary classifiers that use artificially constructed negative examples.

Keywords: Bioinformatics, Protein-protein interactions, One-Class Support Vector Machines

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1540 Analysis and Prediction of the Behavior of the Landslide at Ain El Hammam, Algeria Based on the Second Order Work Criterion

Authors: Zerarka Hizia, Akchiche Mustapha, Prunier Florent

Abstract:

The landslide of Ain El Hammam (AEH) is characterized by a complex geology and a high hydrogeology hazard. AEH's perpetual reactivation compels us to look closely at its triggers and to better understand the mechanisms of its evolution in mass and in depth. This study builds a numerical model to simulate the influencing factors such as precipitation, non-saturation, and pore pressure fluctuations, using Plaxis software. For a finer analysis of instabilities, we use Hill's criterion, based on the sign of the second order work, which is the most appropriate material stability criterion for non-associated elastoplastic materials. The results of this type of calculation allow us, in theory, to predict the shape and position of the slip surface(s) which are liable to ground movements of the slope, before reaching the rupture given by the plastic limit of Mohr Coulomb. To validate the numerical model, an analysis of inclinometer measures is performed to confirm the direction of movement and kinematic of the sliding mechanism of AEH’s slope.

Keywords: Landslide, second order work, precipitation, inclinometers.

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1539 Cyclostationary Gaussian Linearization for Analyzing Nonlinear System Response under Sinusoidal Signal and White Noise Excitation

Authors: R. J. Chang

Abstract:

A cyclostationary Gaussian linearization method is formulated for investigating the time average response of nonlinear system under sinusoidal signal and white noise excitation. The quantitative measure of cyclostationary mean, variance, spectrum of mean amplitude, and mean power spectral density of noise are analyzed. The qualitative response behavior of stochastic jump and bifurcation are investigated. The validity of the present approach in predicting the quantitative and qualitative statistical responses is supported by utilizing Monte Carlo simulations. The present analysis without imposing restrictive analytical conditions can be directly derived by solving non-linear algebraic equations. The analytical solution gives reliable quantitative and qualitative prediction of mean and noise response for the Duffing system subjected to both sinusoidal signal and white noise excitation.

Keywords: Cyclostationary, Duffing system, Gaussian linearization, sinusoidal signal and white noise.

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1538 Innovation at the Faculty-level Education through Service Learning

Authors: Nives Mikelic Preradovic, Damir Boras, Tomislava Lauc

Abstract:

The paper presents the service learning project titled DicDucFac (idea-leadership-product), that was planned and conducted by the team of information sciences students. It was planned as a workshop dealing with the application of modern social media (Facebook, YouTube, Gmail) for the purposes of selfpromotion, free advertising via social networks and marketing own ideas and/or products in the virtual world. The workshop was organized for highly-skilled computer literate unemployed youth. These youth, as final beneficiaries, will be able to apply what they learned in this workshop to “the real world“, increasing their chances for employment and self-employment. The results of the project reveal that the basic, active-learning principles embodied in our teaching approach allow students to learn more effectively and gain essential life skills (from computer applications to teamwork) that can only be learned by doing. It also shows that our students received the essentials of professional ethics and citizenship through direct, personal engagement in professional activities and the life of the community.

Keywords: Service Learning, Innovation, Engaged Citizenship, Leadership, Social Networks, Marketing.

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1537 Application of Feed-Forward Neural Networks Autoregressive Models in Gross Domestic Product Prediction

Authors: Ε. Giovanis

Abstract:

In this paper we present an autoregressive model with neural networks modeling and standard error backpropagation algorithm training optimization in order to predict the gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate of four countries. Specifically we propose a kind of weighted regression, which can be used for econometric purposes, where the initial inputs are multiplied by the neural networks final optimum weights from input-hidden layer after the training process. The forecasts are compared with those of the ordinary autoregressive model and we conclude that the proposed regression-s forecasting results outperform significant those of autoregressive model in the out-of-sample period. The idea behind this approach is to propose a parametric regression with weighted variables in order to test for the statistical significance and the magnitude of the estimated autoregressive coefficients and simultaneously to estimate the forecasts.

Keywords: Autoregressive model, Error back-propagation Feed-Forward neural networks, , Gross Domestic Product

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1536 Application of Feed-Forward Neural Networks Autoregressive Models with Genetic Algorithm in Gross Domestic Product Prediction

Authors: E. Giovanis

Abstract:

In this paper we present a Feed-Foward Neural Networks Autoregressive (FFNN-AR) model with genetic algorithms training optimization in order to predict the gross domestic product growth of six countries. Specifically we propose a kind of weighted regression, which can be used for econometric purposes, where the initial inputs are multiplied by the neural networks final optimum weights from input-hidden layer of the training process. The forecasts are compared with those of the ordinary autoregressive model and we conclude that the proposed regression-s forecasting results outperform significant those of autoregressive model. Moreover this technique can be used in Autoregressive-Moving Average models, with and without exogenous inputs, as also the training process with genetics algorithms optimization can be replaced by the error back-propagation algorithm.

Keywords: Autoregressive model, Feed-Forward neuralnetworks, Genetic Algorithms, Gross Domestic Product

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1535 Application of GM (1, 1) Model Group Based on Recursive Solution in China's Energy Demand Forecasting

Authors: Yeqing Guan, Fen Yang

Abstract:

To learn about China-s future energy demand, this paper first proposed GM(1,1) model group based on recursive solutions of parameters estimation, setting up a general solving-algorithm of the model group. This method avoided the problems occurred on the past researches that remodeling, loss of information and large amount of calculation. This paper established respectively all-data-GM(1,1), metabolic GM(1,1) and new information GM (1,1)model according to the historical data of energy consumption in China in the year 2005-2010 and the added data of 2011, then modeling, simulating and comparison of accuracies we got the optimal models and to predict. Results showed that the total energy demand of China will be 37.2221 billion tons of equivalent coal in 2012 and 39.7973 billion tons of equivalent coal in 2013, which are as the same as the overall planning of energy demand in The 12th Five-Year Plan.

Keywords: energy demands, GM(1, 1) model group, least square estimation, prediction

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1534 An Algorithm for Determining the Arrival Behavior of a Secondary User to a Base Station in Cognitive Radio Networks

Authors: Danilo López, Edwin Rivas, Leyla López

Abstract:

This paper presents the development of an algorithm that predicts the arrival of a secondary user (SU) to a base station (BS) in a cognitive network based on infrastructure, requesting a Best Effort (BE) or Real Time (RT) type of service with a determined bandwidth (BW) implementing neural networks. The algorithm dynamically uses a neural network construction technique using the geometric pyramid topology and trains a Multilayer Perceptron Neural Networks (MLPNN) based on the historical arrival of an SU to estimate future applications. This will allow efficiently managing the information in the BS, since it precedes the arrival of the SUs in the stage of selection of the best channel in CRN. As a result, the software application determines the probability of arrival at a future time point and calculates the performance metrics to measure the effectiveness of the predictions made.

Keywords: Cognitive radio, MLPNN, base station, prediction, best effort, real time.

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1533 Metrology-Inspired Methods to Assess the Biases of Artificial Intelligence Systems

Authors: Belkacem Laimouche

Abstract:

With the field of Artificial Intelligence (AI) experiencing exponential growth, fueled by technological advancements that pave the way for increasingly innovative and promising applications, there is an escalating need to develop rigorous methods for assessing their performance in pursuit of transparency and equity. This article proposes a metrology-inspired statistical framework for evaluating bias and explainability in AI systems. Drawing from the principles of metrology, we propose a pioneering approach, using a concrete example, to evaluate the accuracy and precision of AI models, as well as to quantify the sources of measurement uncertainty that can lead to bias in their predictions. Furthermore, we explore a statistical approach for evaluating the explainability of AI systems based on their ability to provide interpretable and transparent explanations of their predictions.

Keywords: Artificial intelligence, metrology, measurement uncertainty, prediction error, bias, machine learning algorithms, probabilistic models, inter-laboratory comparison, data analysis, data reliability, bias impact assessment, bias measurement.

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1532 Lateral Torsional Buckling Resistance of Trapezoidally Corrugated Web Girders

Authors: Annamária Käferné Rácz, Bence Jáger, Balázs Kövesdi, László Dunai

Abstract:

Due to the numerous advantages of steel corrugated web girders, its application field is growing for bridges as well as for buildings. The global stability behavior of such girders is significantly larger than those of conventional I-girders with flat web, thus the application of the structural steel material can be significantly reduced. Design codes and specifications do not provide clear and complete rules or recommendations for the determination of the lateral torsional buckling (LTB) resistance of corrugated web girders. Therefore, the authors made a thorough investigation regarding the LTB resistance of the corrugated web girders. Finite element (FE) simulations have been performed to develop new design formulas for the determination of the LTB resistance of trapezoidally corrugated web girders. FE model is developed considering geometrical and material nonlinear analysis using equivalent geometric imperfections (GMNI analysis). The equivalent geometric imperfections involve the initial geometric imperfections and residual stresses coming from rolling, welding and flame cutting. Imperfection sensitivity analysis was performed to determine the necessary magnitudes regarding only the first eigenmodes shape imperfections. By the help of the validated FE model, an extended parametric study is carried out to investigate the LTB resistance for different trapezoidal corrugation profiles. First, the critical moment of a specific girder was calculated by FE model. The critical moments from the FE calculations are compared to the previous analytical calculation proposals. Then, nonlinear analysis was carried out to determine the ultimate resistance. Due to the numerical investigations, new proposals are developed for the determination of the LTB resistance of trapezoidally corrugated web girders through a modification factor on the design method related to the conventional flat web girders.

Keywords: Critical moment, FE modeling, lateral torsional buckling, trapezoidally corrugated web girders.

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1531 The Capabilities Approach as a Future Alternative to Neoliberal Higher Education in the MENA Region

Authors: Ranya Elkhayat

Abstract:

This paper aims at offering a futures study for higher education in the Middle East. Paying special attention to the negative impacts of neoliberalism, the paper will demonstrate how higher education is now commodified, corporatized and how arts and humanities are eschewed in favor of science and technology. This conceptual paper argues against the neoliberal agenda and aims at providing an alternative exemplified in the Capabilities Approach with special reference to Martha Nussbaum’s theory. The paper is divided into four main parts: the current state of higher education under neoliberal values, a prediction of the conditions of higher education in the near future, the future of higher education using the theoretical framework of the Capabilities Approach, and finally, some areas of concern regarding the approach. The implications of the study demonstrate that Nussbaum’s Capabilities Approach will ensure that the values of education are preserved while avoiding the pitfalls of neoliberalism.

Keywords: Capabilities approach, education future, higher education, MENA.

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1530 Comparison of Domain and Hydrophobicity Features for the Prediction of Protein-Protein Interactions using Support Vector Machines

Authors: Hany Alashwal, Safaai Deris, Razib M. Othman

Abstract:

The protein domain structure has been widely used as the most informative sequence feature to computationally predict protein-protein interactions. However, in a recent study, a research group has reported a very high accuracy of 94% using hydrophobicity feature. Therefore, in this study we compare and verify the usefulness of protein domain structure and hydrophobicity properties as the sequence features. Using the Support Vector Machines (SVM) as the learning system, our results indicate that both features achieved accuracy of nearly 80%. Furthermore, domains structure had receiver operating characteristic (ROC) score of 0.8480 with running time of 34 seconds, while hydrophobicity had ROC score of 0.8159 with running time of 20,571 seconds (5.7 hours). These results indicate that protein-protein interaction can be predicted from domain structure with reliable accuracy and acceptable running time.

Keywords: Bioinformatics, protein-protein interactions, support vector machines, protein features.

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