Search results for: Supply risk
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 1805

Search results for: Supply risk

665 Comprehensive Regional Drought Assessment Index

Authors: A. Zeynolabedin, M. A. Olyaei, B. Ghiasi

Abstract:

Drought is an inevitable part of the earth’s climate. It occurs regularly with no clear warning and without recognizing borders. In addition, its impact is cumulative and not immediately discernible. Iran is located in a semi-arid region where droughts occur periodically as natural hazard. Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Surface Water Supply Index (SWSI), and Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) are three well-known indices which describe drought severity; each has its own advantages and disadvantages and can be used for specific types of drought. These indices take into account some factors such as precipitation, reservoir storage and discharge, temperature, and potential evapotranspiration in determining drought severity. In this paper, first all three indices are calculated in Aharchay river watershed located in northwestern part of Iran in East Azarbaijan province. Next, based on two other important parameters which are groundwater level and solar radiation, two new indices are defined. Finally, considering all five aforementioned indices, a combined drought index (CDI) is presented and calculated for the region. This combined index is based on all the meteorological, hydrological, and agricultural features of the region. The results show that the most severe drought condition in Aharchay watershed happened in Jun, 2004. The result of this study can be used for monitoring drought and prepare for the drought mitigation planning.

Keywords: Drought, index variation, regional assessment, monitoring.

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664 Sedimentological Study of Bivalve Fossils Site Locality in Hong Hoi Formation, Lampang, Thailand

Authors: Kritsada Moonpa, Kannipa Motanated, Weerapan Srichan

Abstract:

Hong Hoi Formation is a Middle Triassic deep marine succession presented in outcrops throughout the Lampang Basin of northern Thailand. The primary goal of this research is to diagnose the paleoenvironment, petrographic compositions, and sedimentary sources of the Hong Hoi Formation in Ban Huat, Ngao District. The Triassic Hong Hoi Formation is chosen because the outcrops are continuous and fossils are greatly exposed and abundant. Depositional environment is reconstructed through sedimentological studies along with facies analysis. The Hong Hoi Formation is petrographically divided into two major facies, they are: sandstones with mudstone interbeds, and mudstones or shale with sandstone interbeds. Sandstone beds are lithic arenite and lithic greywacke, volcanic lithic fragments are dominated. Sedimentary structures, paleocurrent data and lithofacies arrangement indicate that the formation deposited in a part of deep marine abyssal plain environment. The sedimentological and petrographic features suggest that during the deposition the Hong Hoi Formation received sediment supply from nearby volcanic arc. This suggested that the intensive volcanic activity within the Sukhothai Arc during the Middle Triassic is the main sediment source.

Keywords: Sukhothai Zone, petrography, Hong Hoi Formation, Lampang, Triassic.

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663 Regional Differences in the Effect of Immigration on Poverty Rates in Spain

Authors: E. Bárcena-Martín, S. Pérez-Moreno

Abstract:

This paper explores the extent of the gap in poverty rates between immigrant and native households in Spanish regions and assess to what extent regional differences in individual and contextual characteristics can explain the divergences in such a gap. By using multilevel techniques and European Union Survey on Income and Living Conditions, we estimate immigrant households experiments an increase of 76 per cent in the odds of being poor compared with a native one when we control by individual variables. In relation to regional differences in the risk of poverty, regionallevel variables have higher effect in the reduction of these differences than individual variables.

Keywords: Immigration, Multilevel Analysis, Poverty, Spanish Regions

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662 Electric Vehicle Market Penetration Impact on Greenhouse Gas Emissions for Policy-Making: A Case Study of United Arab Emirates

Authors: Ahmed Kiani

Abstract:

The United Arab Emirates is clearly facing a multitude of challenges in curbing its greenhouse gas emissions to meet its pre-allotted framework of Kyoto protocol and COP21 targets due to its hunger for modernization, industrialization, infrastructure growth, soaring population and oil and gas activity. In this work, we focus on the bonafide zero emission electric vehicles market penetration in the country’s transport industry for emission reduction. We study the global electric vehicle market trends, the complementary battery technologies and the trends by manufacturers, emission standards across borders and prioritized advancements which will ultimately dictate the terms of future conditions for the United Arab Emirate transport industry. Based on our findings and analysis at every stage of current viability and state-of-transport-affairs, we postulate policy recommendations to local governmental entities from a supply and demand perspective covering aspects of technology, infrastructure requirements, change in power dynamics, end user incentives program, market regulators behavior and communications amongst key stakeholders. 

Keywords: Electric vehicles, greenhouse gas emission reductions, market analysis, policy recommendations.

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661 Efficient CNC Milling by Adjusting Material Removal Rate

Authors: Majid Tolouei-Rad

Abstract:

This paper describes a combined mathematicalgraphical approach for optimum tool path planning in order to improve machining efficiency. A methodology has been used that stabilizes machining operations by adjusting material removal rate in pocket milling operations while keeping cutting forces within limits. This increases the life of cutting tool and reduces the risk of tool breakage, machining vibration, and chatter. Case studies reveal the fact that application of this approach could result in a slight increase of machining time, however, a considerable reduction of tooling cost, machining vibration, noise and chatter can be achieved in addition to producing a better surface finish.

Keywords: CNC machines, milling, optimization, removal rate.

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660 Validation and Selection between Machine Learning Technique and Traditional Methods to Reduce Bullwhip Effects: a Data Mining Approach

Authors: Hamid R. S. Mojaveri, Seyed S. Mousavi, Mojtaba Heydar, Ahmad Aminian

Abstract:

The aim of this paper is to present a methodology in three steps to forecast supply chain demand. In first step, various data mining techniques are applied in order to prepare data for entering into forecasting models. In second step, the modeling step, an artificial neural network and support vector machine is presented after defining Mean Absolute Percentage Error index for measuring error. The structure of artificial neural network is selected based on previous researchers' results and in this article the accuracy of network is increased by using sensitivity analysis. The best forecast for classical forecasting methods (Moving Average, Exponential Smoothing, and Exponential Smoothing with Trend) is resulted based on prepared data and this forecast is compared with result of support vector machine and proposed artificial neural network. The results show that artificial neural network can forecast more precisely in comparison with other methods. Finally, forecasting methods' stability is analyzed by using raw data and even the effectiveness of clustering analysis is measured.

Keywords: Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), bullwhip effect, demand forecasting, Support Vector Machine (SVM).

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659 Simulation Tools for Training in the Case of Energy Sector Crisis

Authors: H. Malachova, A. Oulehlova, D. Rezac

Abstract:

Crisis preparedness training is the best possible strategy for identifying weak points, understanding vulnerability, and finding possible strategies for mitigation of blackout consequences. Training represents an effective tool for developing abilities and skills to cope with crisis situations. This article builds on the results of the research carried out in the field of preparation, realization, process, and impacts of training on subjects of energy sector critical infrastructure as a part of crisis preparedness. The research has revealed that the subjects of energy sector critical infrastructure have not realized training and therefore are not prepared for the restoration of the energy supply and black start after blackout regardless of the fact that most subjects state blackout and subsequent black start as key dangers. Training, together with mutual communication and processed crisis documentation, represent a basis for successful solutions for dealing with emergency situations. This text presents the suggested model of SIMEX simulator as a tool which supports managing crisis situations, containing training environment. Training models, possibilities of constructive simulation making use of non-aggregated as well as aggregated entities and tools of communication channels of individual simulator nodes have been introduced by the article.

Keywords: Energetic critical infrastructure, preparedness, training, simulation.

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658 The Dynamics of Algeria’s Natural Gas Exports to Europe: Evidence from ARDL Bounds Testing Approach with Breakpoints

Authors: Hicham Benamirouche, Oum Elkheir Moussi

Abstract:

The purpose of the study is to examine the dynamics of Algeria’s natural gas exports through the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach with break points. The analysis was carried out for the period from 1967 to 2015. Based on imperfect substitution specification, the ARDL approach reveals a long-run equilibrium relationship between Algeria’s Natural gas exports and their determinant factors (Algeria’s gas reserves, Domestic gas consumption, Europe’s GDP per capita, relative prices, the European gas production and the market share of competitors). All the long-run elasticities estimated are statistically significant with a large impact of domestic factors, which constitute the supply constraints. In short term, the elasticities are statistically significant, and almost comparable to those of the long term. Furthermore, the speed of adjustment towards long-run equilibrium is less than one year because of the little flexibility of the long term export contracts. Two break points have been estimated when we employ the domestic gas consumption as a break variable; 1984 and 2010, which reflect the arbitration policy between the domestic gas market and gas exports.

Keywords: Natural gas exports, elasticity, ARDL bounds testing, break points, Algeria.

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657 The Project of Three Photovoltaic Systems in an Italian Natural Park

Authors: M.Paroncini, F.Corvaro, G.Nardini, S.Pistolesi

Abstract:

The development of renewable energies - particularly energy from wind, water, solar power and biomass - is a central aim of the European Commission's energy policy. There are several reasons for this choice: renewable energies are sustainable, nonpolluting, widely available and clean. Increasing the share of renewable energy in the energy balance enhances sustainability. It also helps to improve the security of energy supply by reducing the Community's growing dependence on imported energy sources.In this paper it was studied the possibility to realize three photovoltaic systems in the Italian Natural Park “Gola della Rossa e di Frasassi". The first photovoltaic system is a grid-connected system for Services and Documentation Center of Castelletta with a nominal power of about 6 kWp. The second photovoltaic system is a grid-connected integrated system on the ticket office-s roof with a nominal power of about 4 kWp. The third project is set up by five grid-connected systems integrated on the roofs of the bungalows in Natural Park-s tourist camping with a nominal power of about 10 kWp. The electricity which is generated by all these plants is purchased according to the Italian program called “Conto Energia". Economical analysis and the amount of the avoided CO2 emissions are elaborated for these photovoltaic systems.

Keywords: CO2 emissions, conto energia, photovoltaic systems.

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656 Forecasting 24-Hour Ahead Electricity Load Using Time Series Models

Authors: Ramin Vafadary, Maryam Khanbaghi

Abstract:

Forecasting electricity load is important for various purposes like planning, operation and control. Forecasts can save operating and maintenance costs, increase the reliability of power supply and delivery systems, and correct decisions for future development. This paper compares various time series methods to forecast 24 hours ahead of electricity load. The methods considered are the Holt-Winters smoothing, SARIMA Modeling, LSTM Network, Fbprophet and Tensorflow probability. The performance of each method is evaluated by using the forecasting accuracy criteria namely, the Mean Absolute Error and Root Mean Square Error. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) residential energy consumption data are used to train the models. The results of this study show that SARIMA model is superior to the others for 24 hours ahead forecasts. Furthermore, a Bagging technique is used to make the predictions more robust. The obtained results show that by Bagging multiple time-series forecasts we can improve the robustness of the models for 24 hour ahead electricity load forecasting.

Keywords: Bagging, Fbprophet, Holt-Winters, LSTM, Load Forecast, SARIMA, tensorflow probability, time series.

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655 Chloride Transport in Ultra High Performance Concrete

Authors: R. Pernicová

Abstract:

Chloride resistance in Ultra High Performance Concrete (UHPC) is determined in this paper. This work deals with the one dimension chloride transport, which can be potentially dangerous particularly for the durability of concrete structures. Risk of reinforcement corrosion due to exposure to the concrete surface to direct the action of chloride ions (mainly in the form de-icing salts or groundwater) is dangerously increases. The measured data are investigated depending on the depth of penetration of chloride ions into the concrete structure. Comparative measurements with normal strength concrete are done as well. The experimental results showed that UHCP have improved resistance of chlorides penetration than NSC and also chloride diffusion depth is significantly lower in UHCP.

Keywords: Chloride, One dimensional diffusion, Transport, Salinity, UHPC.

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654 Energy Efficiency Analysis of Discharge Modes of an Adiabatic Compressed Air Energy Storage System

Authors: Shane D. Inder, Mehrdad Khamooshi

Abstract:

Efficient energy storage is a crucial factor in facilitating the uptake of renewable energy resources. Among the many options available for energy storage systems required to balance imbalanced supply and demand cycles, compressed air energy storage (CAES) is a proven technology in grid-scale applications. This paper reviews the current state of micro scale CAES technology and describes a micro-scale advanced adiabatic CAES (A-CAES) system, where heat generated during compression is stored for use in the discharge phase. It will also describe a thermodynamic model, developed in EES (Engineering Equation Solver) to evaluate the performance and critical parameters of the discharge phase of the proposed system. Three configurations are explained including: single turbine without preheater, two turbines with preheaters, and three turbines with preheaters. It is shown that the micro-scale A-CAES is highly dependent upon key parameters including; regulator pressure, air pressure and volume, thermal energy storage temperature and flow rate and the number of turbines. It was found that a micro-scale AA-CAES, when optimized with an appropriate configuration, could deliver energy input to output efficiency of up to 70%.

Keywords: CAES, adiabatic compressed air energy storage, expansion phase, micro generation, thermodynamic.

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653 Modeling ICT Adoption Factors for the Preservation of Indigenous Knowledge

Authors: K.M. Ngcobo, S.D. Eyono Obono

Abstract:

Indigenous Knowledge (IK) has many social and economic benefits. However, IK is at the risk of extinction due to the difficulties to preserve it as most of the IK largely remains undocumented. This study aims to design a model of the factors affecting the adoption of Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs) for the preservation of IK. The proposed model is based on theoretical frameworks on ICT adoption. It was designed following a literature review of ICT adoption theories for households, and of the factors affecting ICT adoption for IK. The theory that fitted to the best all factors was then chosen as the basis for the proposed model. This study found that the Model of Adoption of Technology in Households (MATH) is the most suitable theoretical framework for modeling ICT adoption factors for the preservation of IK.

Keywords: Adoption factors, ICT adoption theories, Indigenous knowledge.

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652 An Intelligent Approach for Management of Hybrid DG System

Authors: Ali Vaseghi Ardekani, Hamid Reza Forutan, Amir Habibi, Ali Reza Rajabi, Hasan Adloo

Abstract:

Distributed generation units (DGs) are grid-connected or stand-alone electric generation units located within the electric distribution system at or near the end user. It is generally accepted that centralized electric power plants will remain the major source of the electric power supply for the near future. DGs, however, can complement central power by providing incremental capacity to the utility grid or to an end user. This paper presents an efficient power dispatching model for hybrid wind-Solar power generation system, to satisfy some essential requirements, such as dispersed electric power demand, electric power quality and reducing generation cost and so on. In this paper, presented some elements of the main parts in the hybrid system; and then made fundamental dispatching strategies according to different situations; then pointed out four improving measures to improve genetic algorithm, such as: modify the producing way of selection probability, improve the way of crossover, protect excellent chromosomes, and change mutation range and so on. Finally, propose a technique for solving the unit's commitment for dispatching problem based on an improved genetic algorithm.

Keywords: Power Quality, Wind-Solar System, Genetic Algorithm, Hybrid System.

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651 Plasma Properties Effect on Fluorescent Tube Plasma Antenna Performance

Authors: A. N. Dagang, E. I. Ismail, Z. Zakaria

Abstract:

This paper presents the analysis on the performance of monopole antenna with fluorescent tubes. In this research, the simulation and experimental approach is conducted. The fluorescent tube with different length and size is designed using Computer Simulation Technology (CST) software and the characteristics of antenna parameter are simulated throughout the software. CST was used to simulate antenna parameters such as return loss, resonant frequency, gain and directivity. Vector Network Analyzer (VNA) was used to measure the return loss of plasma antenna in order to validate the simulation results. In the simulation and experiment, the supply frequency is set starting from 1 GHz to 10 GHz. The results show that the return loss of plasma antenna changes when size of fluorescent tubes is varied, correspond to the different plasma properties. It shows that different values of plasma properties such as plasma frequency and collision frequency gives difference result of return loss, gain and directivity. For the gain, the values range from 2.14 dB to 2.36 dB. The return loss of plasma antenna offers higher value range from -22.187 dB to -32.903 dB. The higher the values of plasma frequency and collision frequency, the higher return loss can be obtained. The values obtained are comparative to the conventional type of metal antenna.

Keywords: Plasma antenna, fluorescent tube, computer simulation technology, plasma parameters.

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650 Sedimentation and its Challenges for Operation and Maintenance of Hydraulic Structures using SHARC Software- A Case Study of Eastern Intake in Dez Diversion Dam in Iran

Authors: M.R. Mansoujian, N. Hedayat, M. Mashal, H, Kiamanesh

Abstract:

Analytical investigation of the sedimentation processes in the river engineering and hydraulic structures is of vital importance as this can affect water supply for the cultivating lands in the command area. The reason being that gradual sediment formation behind the reservoir can reduce the nominal capacity of these dams. The aim of the present paper is to analytically investigate sedimentation process along the river course and behind the storage reservoirs in general and the Eastern Intake of the Dez Diversion weir in particular using the SHARC software. Results of the model indicated the water level at 115.97m whereas the real time measurement from the river cross section was 115.98 m which suggests a significantly close relation between them. The average transported sediment load in the river was measured at 0.25mm , from which it can be concluded that nearly 100% of the suspended loads in river are moving which suggests no sediment settling but indicates that almost all sediment loads enters into the intake. It was further showed the average sediment diameter entering the intake to be 0.293 mm which in turn suggests that about 85% of suspended sediments in the river entre the intake. Comparison of the results from the SHARC model with those obtained form the SSIIM software suggests quite similar outputs but distinguishing the SHARC model as more appropriate for the analysis of simpler problems than other model.

Keywords: SHARC, Eastern Intake, Dez Diversion Weir.

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649 Multiscale Analysis and Change Detection Based on a Contrario Approach

Authors: F.Katlane, M.S.Naceur, M.A.Loghmari

Abstract:

Automatic methods of detecting changes through satellite imaging are the object of growing interest, especially beca²use of numerous applications linked to analysis of the Earth’s surface or the environment (monitoring vegetation, updating maps, risk management, etc...). This work implemented spatial analysis techniques by using images with different spatial and spectral resolutions on different dates. The work was based on the principle of control charts in order to set the upper and lower limits beyond which a change would be noted. Later, the a contrario approach was used. This was done by testing different thresholds for which the difference calculated between two pixels was significant. Finally, labeled images were considered, giving a particularly low difference which meant that the number of “false changes” could be estimated according to a given limit.

Keywords: multi-scale, a contrario approach, significantthresholds, change detection.

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648 The State-of-Art Environmental Impact Assessment: An Overview

Authors: Tsolmon Tumenjargal, Muhammad Hassan Khalil, Wu Yao Guo

Abstract:

The research on the effectiveness of environmental assessment (EA) is a milestone effort to evaluate the state of the field, including many contributors related with a lot of countries since more than two decades. In the 1960s, there was a surge of interest between modern industrialized countries over unexpected opposite effects of technical invention. The interest led to choice of approaches for assessing and prediction the impressions of technology and advancement for social and economic, state health and safety, solidity and the circumstances. These are consisting of risk assessment, technology assessment, environmental impact assessment and costbenefit analysis. In this research contribution, the authors have described the research status for environmental assessment in cumulative environmental system. This article discusses the methods for cumulative effect assessment (CEA).

Keywords: Cumulative effect assessment, Environmental impact assessment.

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647 Improvement of Water Distillation Plant by Using Statistical Process Control System

Authors: Qasim Kriri, Harsh B. Desai

Abstract:

Water supply and sanitation in Saudi Arabia is portrayed by difficulties and accomplishments. One of the fundamental difficulties is water shortage. With a specific end goal to beat water shortage, significant ventures have been attempted in sea water desalination, water circulation, sewerage, and wastewater treatment. The motivation behind Statistical Process Control (SPC) is to decide whether the execution of a procedure is keeping up an acceptable quality level [AQL]. SPC is an analytical decision-making method. A fundamental apparatus in the SPC is the Control Charts, which follow the inconstancy in the estimations of the item quality attributes. By utilizing the suitable outline, administration can decide whether changes should be made with a specific end goal to keep the procedure in charge. The two most important quality factors in the distilled water which were taken into consideration were pH (Potential of Hydrogen) and TDS (Total Dissolved Solids). There were three stages at which the quality checks were done. The stages were as follows: (1) Water at the source, (2) water after chemical treatment & (3) water which is sent for packing. The upper specification limit, central limit and lower specification limit are taken as per Saudi water standards. The procedure capacity to accomplish the particulars set for the quality attributes of Berain water Factory chose to be focused by the proposed SPC system.

Keywords: Acceptable quality level, statistical quality control, control charts, process charts.

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646 Environmental Effects on Energy Consumption of Smart Grid Consumers

Authors: S. M. Ali, A. Salam Khan, A. U. Khan, M. Tariq, M. S. Hussain, B. A. Abbasi, I. Hussain, U. Farid

Abstract:

Environment and surrounding plays a pivotal rule in structuring life-style of the consumers. Living standards intern effect the energy consumption of the consumers. In smart grid paradigm, climate drifts, weather parameter and green environmental directly relates to the energy profiles of the various consumers, such as residential, commercial and industrial. Considering above factors helps policy in shaping utility load curves and optimal management of demand and supply. Thus, there is a pressing need to develop correlation models of load and weather parameters and critical analysis of the factors effecting energy profiles of smart grid consumers. In this paper, we elaborated various environment and weather parameter factors effecting demand of consumers. Moreover, we developed correlation models, such as Pearson, Spearman, and Kendall, an inter-relation between dependent (load) parameter and independent (weather) parameters. Furthermore, we validated our discussion with real-time data of Texas State. The numerical simulations proved the effective relation of climatic drifts with energy consumption of smart grid consumers.

Keywords: Climatic drifts, correlation analysis, energy consumption, smart grid, weather parameter.

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645 Solving a New Mixed-Model Assembly LineSequencing Problem in a MTO Environment

Authors: N. Manavizadeh, M. Hosseini, M. Rabbani

Abstract:

In the last decades to supply the various and different demands of clients, a lot of manufacturers trend to use the mixedmodel assembly line (MMAL) in their production lines, since this policy make possible to assemble various and different models of the equivalent goods on the same line with the MTO approach. In this article, we determine the sequence of (MMAL) line, with applying the kitting approach and planning of rest time for general workers to reduce the wastages, increase the workers effectiveness and apply the sector of lean production approach. This Multi-objective sequencing problem solved in small size with GAMS22.2 and PSO meta heuristic in 10 test problems and compare their results together and conclude that their results are very similar together, next we determine the important factors in computing the cost, which improving them cost reduced. Since this problem, is NPhard in large size, we use the particle swarm optimization (PSO) meta-heuristic for solving it. In large size we define some test problems to survey it-s performance and determine the important factors in calculating the cost, that by change or improved them production in minimum cost will be possible.

Keywords: Mixed-Model Assembly Line, particle swarmoptimization, Multi-objective sequencing problem, MTO system, kitto-assembly, rest time

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644 CFD Analysis of Multi-Phase Reacting Transport Phenomena in Discharge Process of Non-Aqueous Lithium-Air Battery

Authors: Jinliang Yuan, Jong-Sung Yu, Bengt Sundén

Abstract:

A computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model is developed for rechargeable non-aqueous electrolyte lithium-air batteries with a partial opening for oxygen supply to the cathode. Multi-phase transport phenomena occurred in the battery are considered, including dissolved lithium ions and oxygen gas in the liquid electrolyte, solid-phase electron transfer in the porous functional materials and liquid-phase charge transport in the electrolyte. These transport processes are coupled with the electrochemical reactions at the active surfaces, and effects of discharge reaction-generated solid Li2O2 on the transport properties and the electrochemical reaction rate are evaluated and implemented in the model. The predicted results are discussed and analyzed in terms of the spatial and transient distribution of various parameters, such as local oxygen concentration, reaction rate, variable solid Li2O2 volume fraction and porosity, as well as the effective diffusion coefficients. It is found that the effect of the solid Li2O2 product deposited at the solid active surfaces is significant on the transport phenomena and the overall battery performance.

Keywords: Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD), Modeling, Multi-phase, Transport Phenomena, Lithium-air battery.

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643 Environmental Analysis of the Zinc Oxide Nanophotocatalyst Synthesis

Authors: Natália B. Pompermayer, Mariana B. Porto, Elizabeth F. Souza

Abstract:

Nanophotocatalysts such as titanium (TiO2), zinc (ZnO), and iron (Fe2O3) oxides can be used in organic pollutants oxidation, and in many other applications. But among the challenges for technological application (scale-up) of the nanotechnology scientific developments two aspects are still little explored: research on environmental risk of the nanomaterials preparation methods, and the study of nanomaterials properties and/or performance variability. The environmental analysis was performed for six different methods of ZnO nanoparticles synthesis, and showed that it is possible to identify the more environmentally compatible process even at laboratory scale research. The obtained ZnO nanoparticles were tested as photocatalysts, and increased the degradation rate of the Rhodamine B dye up to 30 times.

Keywords: Environmental impact analysis, inorganic nanoparticles, photocatalysts.

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642 Analyzing the Factors Influencing Exclusive Breastfeeding Using the Generalized Poisson Regression Model

Authors: Cheika Jahangeer, Naushad Mamode Khan, Maleika Heenaye-Mamode Khan

Abstract:

Exclusive breastfeeding is the feeding of a baby on no other milk apart from breast milk. Exclusive breastfeeding during the first 6 months of life is of fundamental importance because it supports optimal growth and development during infancy and reduces the risk of obliterating diseases and problems. Moreover, in developed countries, exclusive breastfeeding has decreased the incidence and/or severity of diarrhea, lower respiratory infection and urinary tract infection. In this paper, we study the factors that influence exclusive breastfeeding and use the Generalized Poisson regression model to analyze the practices of exclusive breastfeeding in Mauritius. We develop two sets of quasi-likelihood equations (QLE)to estimate the parameters.

Keywords: Exclusive breastfeeding, Regression model, Quasilikelihood.

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641 Observation and Study of Landslides Affecting the Tangier – Oued R’mel Motorway Segment

Authors: S. Houssaini, L. Bahi

Abstract:

The motorway segment between Tangier and Oued R’mel has experienced, since the beginning of building works, significant instability and landslides linked to a number of geological, hydrogeological and geothermic factors affecting the different formations. The landslides observed are not fully understood, despite many studies conducted on this segment. This study aims at producing new methods to better explain the phenomena behind the landslides, taking into account the geotechnical and geothermic contexts. This analysis builds up on previous studies and geotechnical data collected in the field. The final body of data collected shall be processed through the Plaxis software for a better and customizable view of the landslide problems in the area, which will help tofind solutions and stabilize land in the area.

Keywords: Landslides, modeling, risk, stabilization.

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640 Development of Prediction Models of Day-Ahead Hourly Building Electricity Consumption and Peak Power Demand Using the Machine Learning Method

Authors: Dalin Si, Azizan Aziz, Bertrand Lasternas

Abstract:

To encourage building owners to purchase electricity at the wholesale market and reduce building peak demand, this study aims to develop models that predict day-ahead hourly electricity consumption and demand using artificial neural network (ANN) and support vector machine (SVM). All prediction models are built in Python, with tool Scikit-learn and Pybrain. The input data for both consumption and demand prediction are time stamp, outdoor dry bulb temperature, relative humidity, air handling unit (AHU), supply air temperature and solar radiation. Solar radiation, which is unavailable a day-ahead, is predicted at first, and then this estimation is used as an input to predict consumption and demand. Models to predict consumption and demand are trained in both SVM and ANN, and depend on cooling or heating, weekdays or weekends. The results show that ANN is the better option for both consumption and demand prediction. It can achieve 15.50% to 20.03% coefficient of variance of root mean square error (CVRMSE) for consumption prediction and 22.89% to 32.42% CVRMSE for demand prediction, respectively. To conclude, the presented models have potential to help building owners to purchase electricity at the wholesale market, but they are not robust when used in demand response control.

Keywords: Building energy prediction, data mining, demand response, electricity market.

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639 Analyzing Data on Breastfeeding Using Dispersed Statistical Models

Authors: Naushad Mamode Khan, Cheika Jahangeer, Maleika Heenaye-Mamode Khan

Abstract:

Exclusive breastfeeding is the feeding of a baby on no other milk apart from breast milk. Exclusive breastfeeding during the first 6 months of life is very important as it supports optimal growth and development during infancy and reduces the risk of obliterating diseases and problems. Moreover, it helps to reduce the incidence and/or severity of diarrhea, lower respiratory infection and urinary tract infection. In this paper, we make a survey of the factors that influence exclusive breastfeeding and use two dispersed statistical models to analyze data. The models are the Generalized Poisson regression model and the Com-Poisson regression models.

Keywords: Exclusive breastfeeding, regression model, generalized poisson, com-poisson.

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638 Result of Fatty Acid Content in Meat of Selenge Breed Younger Cattle

Authors: Myagmarsuren Soronzonjav, N. Togtokhbayar, L. Davaahuu, B. Minjigdorj, Seong Gu Hwang

Abstract:

The number of natural or organic product consumers is increased in recent years and this healthy demand pushes to increase usage of healthy meat. At the same time, consumers pay more attention on the healthy fat, especially on unsaturated fatty acids. These long chain carbohydrates reduce heart diseases, improve memory and eye sight and activate the immune system. One of the important issues to be solved for our Mongolia’s food security is to provide healthy, fresh, widely available and cheap meat for the population. Thus, an importance of the Selenge breed meat production is increasing in order to supply the quality meat food security since the Selenge breed cattle are rapidly multiplied, beneficial in term of income, the same quality as Mongolian breed, and well digested for human body. We researched the lipid, unsaturated and saturated fatty acid contents of meat of Selenge breed younger cattle by their muscle types. Result of our research reveals that 11 saturated fatty acids are detected. For the content of palmitic acid among saturated fatty acids, 23.61% was in the sirloin meat, 24.01% was in the round and chuck meat, and 24.83% was in the short loin meat.

Keywords: Chromatogram, gas chromatography, organic resolving, saturated and unsaturated fatty acids.

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637 Net Interest Margin of Cooperative Banks in Low Interest Rate Environment

Authors: Karolína Vozková, Matěj Kuc

Abstract:

This paper deals with the impact of decrease in interest rates on the performance of commercial and cooperative banks in the Eurozone measured by net interest margin. The analysis was performed on balanced dataset of 268 commercial and 726 cooperative banks spanning the 2008-2015 period. We employed Fixed Effects estimation panel method. As expected, we found a negative relationship between market rates and net interest margin. Our results suggest that the impact of negative interest income differs across individual banking business models. More precisely, those cooperative banks were much more hit by the decrease of market interest rates which might be due to their ownership structure and more restrictive business regulation.

Keywords: Cooperative banks, performance, negative interest rates, risk management.

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636 Effect of Silica Fume on the Properties of Steel-Fiber Reinforced Self-compacting Concrete

Authors: Ahmed Fathi Mohamed, Nasir Shafiq, M. F. Nuruddin, Ali Elheber

Abstract:

Implementing significant advantages in the supply of self-compacting concrete (SCC) is necessary because of the, negative features of SCC. Examples of these features are the ductility problem along with the very high cost of its constituted materials. Silica fume with steel fiber can fix this matter by improving the ductility and decreasing the total cost of SCC by varying the cement ingredients. Many different researchers have found that there have not been enough research carried out on the steel fiber-reinforced self-compacting concrete (SFRSCC) produced with silica fume. This paper inspects both the fresh and the mechanical properties of SFRSCC with silica fume, the fresh qualities where slump flow, slump T50 and V- funnel. While, the mechanical characteristics were the compressive strength, ultrasound pulse velocity (UPV) and elastic modulus of the concrete samples. The experimental results have proven that steel fiber can enhance the mechanical features. In addition, the silica fume within the entire hybrid mix may possibly adapt the fiber dispersion and strengthen deficits due to the fibers. It could also improve the strength plus the bond between the fiber and the matrix with a dense calcium silicate-hydrate gel in SFRSCC. The concluded result was predicted using linear mathematical models and was found to be in great agreement with the experimental results.

Keywords: Self-compacting concrete, silica fume, steel fiber, fresh and mechanical properties.

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