Search results for: temperature models

Authors: Michele Sinico

Abstract:

The present research investigates the effect of symmetry on the perception of happiness and boredom in design products. Three experiments were carried out in order to verify the degree of the visual expressive value on different models of bookcases, wall clocks, and chairs. 60 participants directly indicated the degree of happiness and boredom using 7-point rating scales. The findings show that the participants acknowledged a different value of expressive quality in the different product models. Results show also that symmetry is not a significant constraint for an emotional design project.

Keywords: Product experience, emotional design, symmetry, expressive qualities.

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Authors: Ahmed Mahmoudi, Imen Mejri, Mohamed A. Abbassi, Ahmed Omri

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A numerical study based on the Lattice Boltzmann Method (LBM) is proposed to solve one, two and three dimensional heat and mass transfer for isothermal carbonization of thick wood particles. To check the validity of the proposed model, computational results have been compared with the published data and a good agreement is obtained. Then, the model is used to study the effect of reactor temperature and thermal boundary conditions, on the evolution of the local temperature and the mass distributions of the wood particle during carbonization

Keywords: Lattice Boltzmann Method, pyrolysis conduction, carbonization, Heat and mass transfer.

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Authors: Espinoza S. Clara, Gamarra Q. Flor, Marianela F. Ramos Quispe S. Miguel, Flores R. Omar

Abstract:

Tropaeolum majus L. is a native plant to South and Central America, used since ancient times by our ancestors to combat different diseases. Glucotropaeolonin is one of its main components, which when hydrolyzed, forms benzyl isothiocyanate (BIT) that promotes cellular apoptosis (programmed cell death in cancer cells). Therefore, the present research aims to evaluate the effect of the pressure and temperature of BIT extraction by supercritical CO₂ from Tropaeolum majus L. The extraction was carried out in a supercritical fluid extractor equipment Speed SFE BASIC Brand: Poly science, the leaves of Tropaeolum majus L. were ground for one hour and lyophilized until obtaining a humidity of 6%. The extraction with supercritical CO₂ was carried out with pressures of 200 bar and 300 bar, temperatures of 50°C, 60°C and 70°C, obtained by the conjugation of these six treatments. BIT was identified by thin layer chromatography using 98% BIT as the standard, and as the mobile phase hexane: dichloromethane (4:2). Subsequently, BIT quantification was performed by high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC). The highest yield of oleoresin by supercritical CO₂ extraction was obtained pressure 300 bar and temperature at 60°C; and the higher content of BIT at pressure 200 bar and 70°C for 30 minutes to obtain 113.615 ± 0.03 mg BIT/100 g dry matter was obtained.

Keywords: Tropaeolum majus L., supercritical fluids, benzyl isothiocyanate.

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Authors: A. Jabbari, R. Jedermann, W. Lang

Abstract:

The new idea of this research is application of a new fault detection and isolation (FDI) technique for supervision of sensor networks in transportation system. In measurement systems, it is necessary to detect all types of faults and failures, based on predefined algorithm. Last improvements in artificial neural network studies (ANN) led to using them for some FDI purposes. In this paper, application of new probabilistic neural network features for data approximation and data classification are considered for plausibility check in temperature measurement. For this purpose, two-phase FDI mechanism was considered for residual generation and evaluation.

Keywords: Fault detection and Isolation, Neural network, Temperature measurement, measurement approximation and classification.

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Authors: J. Y. Jang, Y. W. Lee, C. N. Lin, C. H. Wang

Abstract:

The reheating furnace is used to reheat the steel slabs before the hot-rolling process. The supported system includes the stationary/moving beams, and the skid buttons which block some thermal radiation transmitted to the bottom of the slabs. Therefore, it is important to analyze the steel slab temperature distribution during the heating period. A three-dimensional mathematical transient heat transfer model for the prediction of temperature distribution within the slab has been developed. The effects of different skid button height (H=60mm, 90mm, and 120mm) and different gap distance between two slabs (S=50mm, 75mm, and 100mm) on the slab skid mark formation and temperature profiles are investigated. Comparison with the in-situ experimental data from Steel Company in Taiwan shows that the present heat transfer model works well for the prediction of thermal behavior of the slab in the reheating furnace. It is found that the skid mark severity decreases with an increase in the skid button height. The effect of gap distance is important only for the slab edge planes, while it is insignificant for the slab central planes.

Keywords: 3-D, slab, transient heat conduction, reheating furnace, thermal radiation.

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Authors: Antonio Natali, Ambra Molesini

Abstract:

In modern distributed software systems, the issue of communication among composing parts represents a critical point, but the idea of extending conventional programming languages with general purpose communication constructs seems difficult to realize. As a consequence, there is a (growing) gap between the abstraction level required by distributed applications and the concepts provided by platforms that enable communication. This work intends to discuss how the Model Driven Software Development approach can be considered as a mature technology to generate in automatic way the schematic part of applications related to communication, by providing at the same time high level specialized languages useful in all the phases of software production. To achieve the goal, a stack of languages (meta-meta¬models) has been introduced in order to describe – at different levels of abstraction – the collaborative behavior of generic entities in terms of communication actions related to a taxonomy of messages. Finally, the generation of platforms for communication is viewed as a form of specification of language semantics, that provides executable models of applications together with model-checking supports and effective runtime environments.

Keywords: Interactions, specific languages, meta-models, model driven development.

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Authors: Pavel Zikmund, Robert Popela

Abstract:

Extreme formation is a theoretical concept of selfsustain flight when a big airliner is followed by a small UAV glider flying in the airliner wake vortex. The paper presents results of a climb analysis with the goal to lift the gliding UAV to airliners cruise altitude. Wake vortex models, the UAV drag polar and basic parameters and airliner’s climb profile are introduced at first. Afterwards, flight performance of the UAV in a wake vortex is evaluated by analytical methods. Time history of optimal distance between an airliner and the UAV during a climb is determined. The results are encouraging. Therefore available UAV drag margin for electricity generation is figured out for different vortex models.

Keywords: Flight in formation, self-sustained flight, UAV, wake vortex.

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Authors: F. M. Ali, R. Nazar, N. M. Arifin, I. Pop

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In this paper, the problem of unsteady stagnation-point flow and heat transfer induced by a shrinking sheet in the presence of radiation effect is studied. The transformed boundary layer equations are solved numerically by the shooting method. The influence of radiation, unsteadiness and shrinking parameters, and the Prandtl number on the reduced skin friction coefficient and the heat transfer coefficient, as well as the velocity and temperature profiles are presented and discussed in detail. It is found that dual solutions exist and the temperature distribution becomes less significant with radiation parameter.

Keywords: Heat transfer, Radiation effect, Shrinking sheet Unsteady flow.

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Authors: Yan Lyu, Yiqun Pan, Zhizhong Huang

Abstract:

In the design stage of a new building, the energy model of this building is often required for the analysis of the performance on energy efficiency. In practice, a certain degree of geometric simplification should be done in the establishment of building energy models, since the detailed geometric features of a real building are hard to be described perfectly in most energy simulation engine, such as ESP-r, eQuest or EnergyPlus. Actually, the detailed description is not necessary when the result with extremely high accuracy is not demanded. Therefore, this paper analyzed the relationship between the error of the simulation result from building energy models and the geometric simplification of the models. Finally, the following two parameters are selected as the indices to characterize the geometric feature of in building energy simulation: the southward projected area and total side surface area of the building. Based on the parameterization method, the simplification from an arbitrary column building to a typical shape (a cuboid) building can be made for energy modeling. The result in this study indicates that no more than 7% prediction error of annual cooling/heating load will be caused by the geometric simplification for those buildings with the ratio of southward projection length to total perimeter of the bottom of 0.25~0.35, which means this method is applicable for building performance simulation.

Keywords: building energy model, simulation, geometric simplification, design, regression

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Authors: Surendra K Pandey

Abstract:

Optical emission based on excitonic scattering processes becomes important in dense exciton systems in which the average distance between excitons is of the order of a few Bohr radii but still below the exciton screening threshold. The phenomena due to interactions among excited states play significant role in the emission near band edge of the material. The theory of two-exciton collisions for GaAs/AlGaAs quantum well systems is a mild attempt to understand the physics associated with the optical spectra due to excitonic scattering processes in these novel systems. The four typical processes considered give different spectral shape, peak position and temperature dependence of the emission spectra. We have used the theory of scattering together with the second order perturbation theory to derive the radiative power spontaneously emitted at an energy ħω by these processes. The results arrived at are purely qualitative in nature. The intensity of emitted light in quantum well systems varies inversely to the square of temperature, whereas in case of bulk materials it simply decreases with the  temperature.

Keywords: Exciton-Exciton Collisions, Excitonic Scattering Processes, Interacting Excitonic States, Quantum Wells.

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Authors: I. Jafari, A. Ershadi, E. Najafpour, N. Hedayat

Abstract:

Energy and exergy study of air-water combined solar collector which is called dual purpose solar collector (DPSC) is investigated. The method of ε - NTU is used. Analysis is performed for triangle channels. Parameters like the air flow rate and water inlet temperature are studied. Results are shown that DPSC has better energy and exergy efficiency than single collector. In addition, the triangle passage with water inlet temperature of 60O C has shown better exergy and energy efficiency.

Keywords: Efficiency, Exergy, Irreversibility, Solar collector.

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Authors: Kazutoshi Shishido, Sanehiro Muromachi, Ryo Ohmura

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This paper reports the three-phase (gas + liquid + hydrate) equilibrium pressure versus temperature data for a (O3 + O2 + CO2 + H2O) system for developing the hydrate-based technology to preserve ozone, a chemically unstable substance, for various industrial, medical and consumer uses. These data cover the temperature range from 272 K to 277 K, corresponding to pressures from 1.6 MPa to 3.1 MPa, for each of the three different (O3 + O2)-to-CO2 or O2-to-CO2 molar ratios in the gas phase, which are approximately 4 : 6, 5 : 5, respectively. The mole fraction of ozone in the gas phase was ~0.03 , which are the densest ozone fraction to artificially form O3 containing hydrate ever reported in the literature. Based on these data, the formation of hydrate containing high-concentration ozone, as high as 1 mass %, will be expected.

Keywords: Clathrate hydrate, Ozone, Molecule storage, Sterilization.

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Authors: Thirapat Kitinirunkul, Nattawat Winya, Komson Prapunkarn

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Influences of the amount of phenolic, curing temperature and curing time on the Mechanical Properties of phenolic/fiber composite were investigated by using two-level factorial design. The latter was used to determine the affects of those factors on mechanical properties. The purpose of this study was to investigate the affects of amount of phenolic, curing temperature and curing time of the composite to determine the best condition for mechanical properties according to MIL-I-24768 by the tensile strength is more than 103 MPa.

Keywords: Phenolic Resin, Composite, Fiber Composite, Affecting Factors.

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Authors: A. D. Chandio, P. Xiao

Abstract:

In this study, nickel aluminide coatings were deposited onto CMSX-4 single crystal superalloy and pure Ni substrates by using in-situ chemical vapour deposition (CVD) technique. The microstructural evolutions and coating thickness (CT) were studied upon the variation of processing conditions i.e. time and temperature. The results demonstrated (under identical conditions) that coating formed on pure Ni contains no substrate entrapments and have lower CT in comparison to one deposited on the CMSX-4 counterpart. In addition, the interdiffusion zone (IDZ) of Ni substrate is a γ’-Ni3Al in comparison to the CMSX-4 alloy that is βNiAl phase. The higher CT on CMSX-4 superalloy is attributed to presence of γ-Ni/γ’-Ni3Al structure which contains ~ 15 at.% Al before deposition (that is already present in superalloy). Two main deposition parameters (time and temperature) of the coatings were also studied in addition to standard comparison of substrate effects. The coating formation time was found to exhibit profound effect on CT, whilst temperature was found to change coating activities. In addition, the CT showed linear trend from 800 to 1000 °C, thereafter reduction was observed. This was attributed to the change in coating activities.

Keywords: βNiAl, in-situ CVD, CT, CMSX-4, Ni, microstructure.

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Authors: Chih-Chung Chang, Sy-Chi Kuo, Chen-Kang Huang, Sih-Li Chen

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This study experimentally and numerically investigates motor cooling performance. The motor consists of a centrifugal fan, two axial fans, a shaft, a stator, a rotor and a heat exchanger with 637 cooling tubes. The pressure rise-flow rate (P-Q) performance curves of the cooling fans at 1800 rpm are tested using a test apparatus complying with the Chinese National Standard (CNS) 2726. Compared with the experimental measurements, the numerical analysis results show that the P-Q performance curves of the axial fan and centrifugal fan can be estimated within about 2% and 6%, respectively. By using the simplified model, setting up the heat exchanger and stator as porous media, the flow field in the motor is calculated. By using the results of the flow field near the rotor and stator, and subjecting the heat generation rate as a boundary condition, the temperature distributions of the stator and rotor are also calculated. The simulation results show that the calculated temperature of the stator winding near the axial fans is lower by about 5% than the measured value, and the calculated temperature of the stator core located at the center of the stator is about 1% higher than the measured value. Besides, discussion is made to improve the motor cooling performance.

Keywords: Motor cooling, P-Q performance curves, CNS, porous media.

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Authors: Gilberto Gonzalez-A, Dunia Nuñez-P

Abstract:

Bond graph models of an electrical transformer including the nonlinear saturation are presented. The transformer using electrical and magnetic circuits are modelled. These models determine the relation between self and mutual inductances, and the leakage and magnetizing inductances of power transformers with two windings using the properties of a bond graph. The equivalence between electrical and magnetic variables is given. The modelling and analysis using this methodology to three phase power transformers can be extended.

Keywords: Bond graph, electrical transformer, magnetic circuits, nonlinear saturation.

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Authors: Petr Teply

Abstract:

Liquidity risk management ranks to key concepts applied in finance. Liquidity is defined as a capacity to obtain funding when needed, while liquidity risk means as a threat to this capacity to generate cash at fair costs. In the paper we present challenges of liquidity risk management resulting from the 2007- 2009 global financial upheaval. We see five main regulatory liquidity risk management issues requiring revision in coming years: liquidity measurement, intra-day and intra-group liquidity management, contingency planning and liquidity buffers, liquidity systems, controls and governance, and finally models testing the viability of business liquidity models.

Keywords: liquidity, risk management, regulation, global crisis

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Authors: M. Centra

Abstract:

Due to the liberalization of countless electricity markets, load forecasting has become crucial to all public utilities for which electricity is a strategic variable. With the goal of contributing to the forecasting process inside public utilities, this paper addresses the issue of applying the Holt-Winters exponential smoothing technique and the time series analysis for forecasting the hourly electricity load curve of the Italian railways. The results of the analysis confirm the accuracy of the two models and therefore the relevance of forecasting inside public utilities.

Keywords: ARIMA models, Exponential smoothing, Electricity, Load forecasting, Rail transportation.

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Authors: Noor H Jabarullah

Abstract:

In the past many uneconomic solutions for limitation and interruption of short-circuit currents in low power applications have been introduced, especially polymer switch based on the positive temperature coefficient of resistance (PCTR) concept. However there are many limitations in the active material, which consists of conductive fillers. This paper presents a significantly improved and simplified approach that replaces the existing current limiters with faster switching elements. Its elegance lies in the remarkable simplicity and low-cost processes of producing the device using polyaniline (PANI) doped with methane-sulfonic acid (MSA). Samples characterized as lying in the metallic and critical regimes of metal insulator transition have been studied by means of electrical performance in the voltage range from 1V to 5 V under different environmental conditions. Moisture presence is shown to increase the resistivity and also improved its current limiting performance. Additionally, the device has also been studied for electrical resistivity in the temperature range 77 K-300 K. The temperature dependence of the electrical conductivity gives evidence for a transport mechanism based on variable range hopping in three dimensions.

Keywords: Conducting polymer, current limiter, intrinsic, moisture dependence, polyaniline, resettable, surge protection.

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Authors: O. Eisa, M. Shuhaimi

Abstract:

This paper presents a study on the thermodynamics and transport properties of hot potassium carbonate aqueous system (HPC) using electrolyte non-random two liquid, (ELECNRTL) model. The operation conditions are varied to determine the system liquid phase stability range at the standard and critical conditions. A case study involving 30 wt% K2CO3, H2O standard system at pressure of 1 bar and temperature range from 280.15 to 366.15 K has been studied. The estimated solubility index, viscosity, water activity, and density which obtained from the simulation showed a good agreement with the experimental work. Furthermore, the saturation temperature of the solution has been estimated.

Keywords: Viscosity, Saturation index, Activity coefficient, Density.

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Authors: Amin Esmaeilzadeh, Mohammad Sadeghi, Farhad Kolahan

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Arc welding is an important joining process widely used in many industrial applications including production of automobile, ships structures and metal tanks. In welding process, the moving electrode causes highly non-uniform temperature distribution that leads to residual stresses and different deviations, especially buckling distortions in thin plates. In order to control the deviations and increase the quality of welded plates, a fixture can be used as a practical and low cost method with high efficiency. In this study, a coupled thermo-mechanical finite element model is coded in the software ANSYS to simulate the behavior of thin plates located by a 3-2-1 positioning system during the welding process. Computational results are compared with recent similar works to validate the finite element models. The agreement between the result of proposed model and other reported data proves that finite element modeling can accurately predict the behavior of welded thin plates.

Keywords: Welding, thin plate, buckling distortion, fixture locators, finite element modelling.

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Authors: S. Sadhishkumar, T. Balusamy

Abstract:

A single-phase closed thermosyphon has been fabricated and experimented to utilize solar energy for water heating. The working fluid of the closed thermosyphon is heated at the flatplate collector and the hot water goes to the water tank due to density gradient caused by temperature differences. This experimental work was done using insulated water tank and insulated connecting pipe between the tank and the flat-plate collector. From the collected data, performance parameters such as instantaneous collector efficiency and heat removal factor are calculated. In this study, the effects of glazing were also observed. The water temperature rise and the maximum instantaneous efficiency obtained from this experiment with glazing using insulated water tank and insulated connecting pipe are 17°C in a period of 5 hours and 60% respectively. Whereas the water temperature rise and the maximum instantaneous efficiency obtained from this experiment with glazing using non-insulated water tank and non-insulated connecting pipe are 14°C in a period of 5 hours and 39% respectively.

Keywords: Solar water heating systems, Single-phase thermosyphon, Flat-plate collector, Insulated tank and pipe.

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Authors: A. A. Hekmatzadeh, A. Karimi-Jashani, N. Talebbeydokhti

Abstract:

The rate of nitrate adsorption by a nitrate selective ion exchange resin was investigated in a well-stirred batch experiments. The kinetic experimental data were simulated with diffusion models including external mass transfer, particle diffusion and chemical adsorption. Particle pore volume diffusion and particle surface diffusion were taken into consideration separately and simultaneously in the modeling. The model equations were solved numerically using the Crank-Nicholson scheme. An optimization technique was employed to optimize the model parameters. All nitrate concentration decay data were well described with the all diffusion models. The results indicated that the kinetic process is initially controlled by external mass transfer and then by particle diffusion. The external mass transfer coefficient and the coefficients of pore volume diffusion and surface diffusion in all experiments were close to each other with the average value of 8.3×10-3 cm/S for external mass transfer coefficient. In addition, the models are more sensitive to the mass transfer coefficient in comparison with particle diffusion. Moreover, it seems that surface diffusion is the dominant particle diffusion in comparison with pore volume diffusion.

Keywords: External mass transfer, pore volume diffusion, surface diffusion, mass action law isotherm.

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Authors: Jana Chvalkovska, Petr Jansky, Petr Teply

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The impact assessment in its various forms has recently become a very important part of policy-making and legislation in many different countries. Regulatory impact assessment (RIA) is yet another set of analytical methods deployed in the legislation of the European Union, of many developed countries as well as in many developing ones such as Mexico, Malaysia and Philippines. The aim of this paper is to provide a theoretical background for economic models in regulatory impact assessment and an overview of their application especially on the financial market in the Czech Republic. We found out an inadequate application of these models, what makes room for further research in this field.

Keywords: regulatory impact assessment, RIA, impact evaluation, building societies, Czech Republic

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Authors: Vera Varazashvili, Murman Tsarakhov, Tamar Mirianashvili, Teimuraz Pavlenishvili, Tengiz Machaladze, Mzia Khundadze

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Standard Gibbs energy of formation ΔGfor(298.15) of lanthanide-iron double oxides of garnet-type crystal structure R3Fe5O12 - RIG (R – are rare earth ions) from initial oxides are evaluated. The calculation is based on the data of standard entropies S298.15 and standard enthalpies ΔH298.15 of formation of compounds which are involved in the process of garnets synthesis. Gibbs energy of formation is presented as temperature function ΔGfor(T) for the range 300-1600K. The necessary starting thermodynamic data were obtained from calorimetric study of heat capacity – temperature functions and by using the semi-empirical method for calculation of ΔH298.15 of formation. Thermodynamic functions for standard temperature – enthalpy, entropy and Gibbs energy - are recommended as reference data for technological evaluations. Through the structural series of rare earth-iron garnets the correlation between thermodynamic properties and characteristics of lanthanide ions are elucidated.

Keywords: Calorimetry, entropy, enthalpy, heat capacity, gibbs energy of formation, rare earth iron garnets.

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Authors: Worachat Wannawong, Usa W. Humphries, Prungchan Wongwises, Suphat Vongvisessomjai, Wiriya Lueangaram

Abstract:

A numerical analysis of wave and hydrodynamic models is used to investigate the influence of WAve and Storm Surge (WASS) in the regional and coastal zones. The numerical analyzed system consists of the WAve Model Cycle 4 (WAMC4) and the Princeton Ocean Model (POM) which used to solve the energy balance and primitive equations respectively. The results of both models presented the incorporated surface wave in the regional zone affected the coastal storm surge zone. Specifically, the results indicated that the WASS generally under the approximation is not only the peak surge but also the coastal water level drop which can also cause substantial impact on the coastal environment. The wave–induced surface stress affected the storm surge can significantly improve storm surge prediction. Finally, the calibration of wave module according to the minimum error of the significant wave height (Hs) is not necessarily result in the optimum wave module in the WASS analyzed system for the WASS prediction.

Keywords: energy balance equation, numerical analysis, primitiveequation, storm surge, wave.

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Authors: Harald Rojacz, Markus Varga, Horst Winkelmann

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Within this work High Temperature Single Impact Studies were performed to evaluate deformation mechanisms at different energy and momentum levels. To show the influence of different microstructures and hardness levels and their response to single impacts four different materials were tested at various temperatures up to 700°C. One carbide reinforced NiCrBSi based Metal Matrix Composite and three different steels were tested. The aim of this work is to determine critical energies for fracture appearance and the materials response at different energy and momenta levels. Critical impact loadings were examined at elevated temperatures to limit operating conditions in impact dominated regimes at elevated temperatures. The investigations on the mechanisms were performed using different means of microscopy at the surface and in metallographic cross sections. Results indicate temperature dependence of the occurrence of cracks in hardphase rich materials, such as Metal Matrix Composites High Speed Steels and the influence of different impact momenta at constant energies on the deformation of different steels.

Keywords: Deformation, High Temperature, Metal Matrix Composite, Single Impact Test, Steel.

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Authors: Mohamed Amine Ben Henni, Taher Hassaine Daouadji, Boussad Abbes, Yu Ming Li, Fazilay Abbes

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The reinforcement and repair of concrete structures by bonding composite materials have become relatively common operations. Different types of composite materials can be used: carbon fiber reinforced polymer (CFRP), glass fiber reinforced polymer (GFRP) as well as functionally graded material (FGM). The development of analytical and numerical models describing the mechanical behavior of structures in civil engineering reinforced by composite materials is necessary. These models will enable engineers to select, design, and size adequate reinforcements for the various types of damaged structures. This study focuses on the free vibration behavior of orthotropic laminated composite plates using a refined shear deformation theory. In these models, the distribution of transverse shear stresses is considered as parabolic satisfying the zero-shear stress condition on the top and bottom surfaces of the plates without using shear correction factors. In this analysis, the equation of motion for simply supported thick laminated rectangular plates is obtained by using the Hamilton’s principle. The accuracy of the developed model is demonstrated by comparing our results with solutions derived from other higher order models and with data found in the literature. Besides, a finite-element analysis is used to calculate the natural frequencies of laminated composite plates and is compared with those obtained by the analytical approach.

Keywords: Composites materials, laminated composite plate, shear deformation theory of plates, finite element analysis, free vibration.

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Authors: Jimeng Shi, Mahek Jain, Giri Narasimhan

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Time Series Forecasting (TSF) is used to predict the target variables at a future time point based on the learning from previous time points. To keep the problem tractable, learning methods use data from a fixed length window in the past as an explicit input. In this paper, we study how the performance of predictive models change as a function of different look-back window sizes and different amounts of time to predict into the future. We also consider the performance of the recent attention-based transformer models, which had good success in the image processing and natural language processing domains. In all, we compare four different deep learning methods (Recurrent Neural Network (RNN), Long Short-term Memory (LSTM), Gated Recurrent Units (GRU), and Transformer) along with a baseline method. The dataset (hourly) we used is the Beijing Air Quality Dataset from the website of University of California, Irvine (UCI), which includes a multivariate time series of many factors measured on an hourly basis for a period of 5 years (2010-14). For each model, we also report on the relationship between the performance and the look-back window sizes and the number of predicted time points into the future. Our experiments suggest that Transformer models have the best performance with the lowest Mean   Absolute Errors (MAE = 14.599, 23.273) and Root Mean Square Errors (RSME = 23.573, 38.131) for most of our single-step and multi-steps predictions. The best size for the look-back window to predict 1 hour into the future appears to be one day, while 2 or 4 days perform the best to predict 3 hours into the future.

Keywords: Air quality prediction, deep learning algorithms, time series forecasting, look-back window.

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Authors: Masood Uzzafer

Abstract:

A dynamic risk management framework for software projects is presented. Currently available software risk management frameworks and risk assessment models are static in nature and lacks feedback capability. Such risk management frameworks are not capable of providing the risk assessment of futuristic changes in risk events. A dynamic risk management framework for software project is needed that provides futuristic assessment of risk events.

Keywords: Software Risk Management, Dynamic Models, Software Project Managment.

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