Search results for: Clinical deterioration prediction

Authors: Kyoungwoo Park, Byeong Sam Kim, Juhee Lee, Kwang Soo Kim

Abstract:

The Prediction of aerodynamic characteristics and shape optimization of airfoil under the ground effect have been carried out by integration of computational fluid dynamics and the multiobjective Pareto-based genetic algorithm. The main flow characteristics around an airfoil of WIG craft are lift force, lift-to-drag ratio and static height stability (H.S). However, they show a strong trade-off phenomenon so that it is not easy to satisfy the design requirements simultaneously. This difficulty can be resolved by the optimal design. The above mentioned three characteristics are chosen as the objective functions and NACA0015 airfoil is considered as a baseline model in the present study. The profile of airfoil is constructed by Bezier curves with fourteen control points and these control points are adopted as the design variables. For multi-objective optimization problems, the optimal solutions are not unique but a set of non-dominated optima and they are called Pareto frontiers or Pareto sets. As the results of optimization, forty numbers of non- dominated Pareto optima can be obtained at thirty evolutions.

Keywords: Aerodynamics, Shape optimization, Airfoil on WIGcraft, Genetic algorithm, Computational fluid dynamics (CFD).

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Authors: Yenni Anggrayni

Abstract:

The lack of awareness of the significant prevalence of school absenteeism in Indonesia, which ultimately results in high rates of school dropouts, is an unresolved issue. Therefore, this study aims to investigate the root causes of chronic absenteeism qualitatively and quantitatively using the bioecological systems paradigm in secondary schools for any reason. This study used an open-ended questionnaire to collect data from 1,148 students in six West Java Province districts/cities. Univariate and stepwise multiple logistic regression analyses produced a prediction model for the components. Analysis results show that poor teacher-student relationships, bullying by peers or teachers, negative perception of education, and lack of parental involvement in learning activities are the leading causes of chronic absenteeism. Another finding is to promote home-school partnerships to improve school climate and parental involvement in learning to address chronic absenteeism.

Keywords: Bullying, chronic absenteeism, dropout of school, home-school partnerships, parental involvement.

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Authors: Simon Brown

Abstract:

Glomerular filtration rate (GFR) is a measure of kidney function. It is usually estimated from serum concentrations of cystatin C or creatinine although there has been considerable debate in the literature about (i) the best equation to use and (ii) the variability in the correlation between the concentrations of creatinine and cystatin C. The equations for GFR can be written in a general form and from these I calculate the error of the GFR estimates associated with analyte measurement error. These show that the error of the GFR estimates is such that it is not possible to distinguish between the equations over much of the concentration range of either analyte. The general forms of the equations are also used to derive an expression for the concentration of cystatin C as a function of the concentration of creatinine. This equation shows that these analyte concentrations are not linearly related. Clinical reports of cystatin C and creatinine concentration are consistent with the expression derived.

Keywords: creatinine, cystatin C, error analysis, glomerularfiltration rate, measurement error.

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Authors: T. Bovornvirakit, K. Viravaidya

Abstract:

Acute kidney injury (AKI) is a new worldwide public health problem. A diagnosis of this disease using creatinine is still a problem in clinical practice. Therefore, a measurement of biomarkers responsible for AKI has received much attention in the past couple years. Cytokine interleukin-18 (IL-18) was reported as one of the early biomarkers for AKI. The most commonly used method to detect this biomarker is an immunoassay. This study used a planar platform to perform an immunoassay using fluorescence for detection. In this study, anti-IL-18 antibody was immobilized onto a microscope slide using a covalent binding method. Make-up samples were diluted at the concentration between 10 to 1000 pg/ml to create a calibration curve. The precision of the system was determined using a coefficient of variability (CV), which was found to be less than 10%. The performance of this immunoassay system was compared with the measurement from ELISA.

Keywords: Acute kidney injury, Acute renal failure, Antibody immobilization, Interleukin-18

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Authors: Stuart Henry, Philip Morrow, John Winder, Bryan Scotney

Abstract:

The stereophotogrammetry modality is gaining more widespread use in the clinical setting. Registration and visualization of this data, in conjunction with conventional 3D volumetric image modalities, provides virtual human data with textured soft tissue and internal anatomical and structural information. In this investigation computed tomography (CT) and stereophotogrammetry data is acquired from 4 anatomical phantoms and registered using the trimmed iterative closest point (TrICP) algorithm. This paper fully addresses the issue of imaging artifacts around the stereophotogrammetry surface edge using the registered CT data as a reference. Several iterative algorithms are implemented to automatically identify and remove stereophotogrammetry surface edge outliers, improving the overall visualization of the combined stereophotogrammetry and CT data. This paper shows that outliers at the surface edge of stereophotogrammetry data can be successfully removed automatically.

Keywords: Data cleansing, stereophotogrammetry.

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Authors: Ε. Giovanis

Abstract:

The purpose of this paper is to present two different approaches of financial distress pre-warning models appropriate for risk supervisors, investors and policy makers. We examine a sample of the financial institutions and electronic companies of Taiwan Security Exchange (TSE) market from 2002 through 2008. We present a binary logistic regression with paned data analysis. With the pooled binary logistic regression we build a model including more variables in the regression than with random effects, while the in-sample and out-sample forecasting performance is higher in random effects estimation than in pooled regression. On the other hand we estimate an Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) with Gaussian and Generalized Bell (Gbell) functions and we find that ANFIS outperforms significant Logit regressions in both in-sample and out-of-sample periods, indicating that ANFIS is a more appropriate tool for financial risk managers and for the economic policy makers in central banks and national statistical services.

Keywords: ANFIS, Binary logistic regression, Financialdistress, Panel data

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Authors: Wei Lei, Hui Chen, Lin Lu

Abstract:

Microscopic emission and fuel consumption models have been widely recognized as an effective method to quantify real traffic emission and energy consumption when they are applied with microscopic traffic simulation models. This paper presents a framework for developing the Microscopic Emission (HC, CO, NOx, and CO2) and Fuel consumption (MEF) models for light-duty vehicles. The variable of composite acceleration is introduced into the MEF model with the purpose of capturing the effects of historical accelerations interacting with current speed on emission and fuel consumption. The MEF model is calibrated by multivariate least-squares method for two types of light-duty vehicle using on-board data collected in Beijing, China by a Portable Emission Measurement System (PEMS). The instantaneous validation results shows the MEF model performs better with lower Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) compared to other two models. Moreover, the aggregate validation results tells the MEF model produces reasonable estimations compared to actual measurements with prediction errors within 12%, 10%, 19%, and 9% for HC, CO, NOx emissions and fuel consumption, respectively.

Keywords: Emission, Fuel consumption, Light-duty vehicle, Microscopic, Modeling.

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Authors: Gyo Woo Lee, Man Young Kim

Abstract:

A mathematical heat transfer model for the prediction of transient heating of the slab in a direct-fired walking beam type reheating furnace has been developed by considering the nongray thermal radiation with given furnace environments. The furnace is modeled as radiating nongray medium with carbon dioxide and water with five-zoned gas temperature and the furnace wall is considered as a constant temperature lower than furnace gas one. The slabs are moving with constant velocity depending on the residence time through the non-firing, charging, preheating, heating, and final soaking zones. Radiative heat flux obtained by considering the radiative heat exchange inside the furnace as well as convective one from the surrounding hot gases are introduced as boundary condition of the transient heat conduction within the slab. After validating thermal radiation model adopted in this work, thermal fields in both model and real reheating furnace are investigated in terms of radiative heat flux in the furnace and temperature inside the slab. The results show that the slab in the furnace can be more heated with higher slab emissivity and residence time.

Keywords: Reheating Furnace, Steel Slab, Radiative Heat Transfer, WSGGM, Emissivity, Residence Time.

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Authors: Ashkan Shafee, Ahamd Fahimifar, Sajjad V. Maghvan

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Promotion of the Fiber Reinforced Concrete (FRC) as a construction material for civil engineering projects has invoked numerous researchers to investigate their mechanical behavior. Even though there is satisfactory information about the effects of fiber type and length, concrete mixture, casting type and other variables on the strength and deformability parameters of FRC, the numerical modeling of such materials still needs research attention. The focus of this study is to investigate the feasibility of Concrete Damaged Plasticity (CDP) model in prediction of Macro-synthetic FRC structures behavior. CDP model requires the tensile behavior of concrete to be well characterized. For this purpose, a series of uniaxial direct tension and four point bending tests were conducted on the notched specimens to define bilinear tension softening (post-peak tension stress-strain) behavior. With these parameters obtained, the flexural behavior of macro-synthetic FRC beams were modeled and the results showed a good agreement with the experimental measurements.

Keywords: Concrete damaged plasticity, fiber reinforced concrete, finite element modeling, macro-synthetic fibers, direct tensile test.

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Authors: Ali Mirmohammadi, Arash Taheri, Meysam Mohammadi-Amin

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One of the major parts of a jet engine is air intake, which provides proper and required amount of air for the engine to operate. There are several aerodynamic parameters which should be considered in design, such as distortion, pressure recovery, etc. In this research, the effects of lip ice accretion on pitot intake performance are investigated. For ice accretion phenomenon, two supervised multilayer neural networks (ANN) are designed, one for ice shape prediction and another one for ice roughness estimation based on experimental data. The Fourier coefficients of transformed ice shape and parameters include velocity, liquid water content (LWC), median volumetric diameter (MVD), spray time and temperature are used in neural network training. Then, the subsonic intake flow field is simulated numerically using 2D Navier-Stokes equations and Finite Volume approach with Hybrid mesh includes structured and unstructured meshes. The results are obtained in different angles of attack and the variations of intake aerodynamic parameters due to icing phenomenon are discussed. The results show noticeable effects of ice accretion phenomenon on intake behavior.

Keywords: Artificial Neural Network, Ice Accretion, IntakeAerodynamics, Design Parameters, Finite Volume Method.

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Authors: Tienfuan Kerh, Hsienchang Lu, Rob Saunders

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Shoreline erosion problems caused by global warming and sea level rising may result in losing of land areas, so it should be examined regularly to reduce possible negative impacts. Initially in this study, three sets of survey images obtained from the years of 1990, 2001, and 2010, respectively, are digitalized by using graphical software to establish the spatial coordinates of six major beaches around the island of Taiwan. Then, by overlaying the known multi-period images, the change of shoreline can be observed from their distribution of coordinates. In addition, the neural network approximation is used to develop a model for predicting shoreline variation in the years of 2015 and 2020. The comparison results show that there is no significant change of total sandy area for all beaches in the three different periods. However, the prediction results show that two beaches may exhibit an increasing of total sandy areas under a statistical 95% confidence interval. The proposed method adopted in this study may be applicable to other shorelines of interest around the world.

Keywords: Digitalized shoreline coordinates, survey image overlaying, neural network approximation, total beach sandy areas.

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Authors: Vijay Sodhi, Ajay Bansal

Abstract:

The effects of different parameters on the hydrodynamics of trickle bed reactors were discussed for Newtonian and non-Newtonian foaming systems. The varying parameters are varying liquid velocities, gas flow velocities and surface tension. The range for gas velocity is particularly large, thanks to the use of dense gas to simulate very high pressure conditions. This data bank has been used to compare the prediction accuracy of the different trendlines and transition points from the literature. More than 240 experimental points for the trickle flow (GCF) and foaming pulsing flow (PF/FPF) regime were obtained for present study. Hydrodynamic characteristics involving dynamic liquid saturation significantly influenced by gas and liquid flow rates. For 15 and 30 ppm air-aqueous surfactant solutions, dynamic liquid saturation decreases with higher liquid and gas flow rates considerably in high interaction regime. With decrease in surface tension i.e. for 45 and 60 ppm air-aqueous surfactant systems, effect was more pronounced with decreases dynamic liquid saturation very sharply during regime transition significantly at both low liquid and gas flow rates.

Keywords: Trickle Bed Reactor, Dynamic Liquid Saturation, Foaming, Flow Regime Transition

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Authors: Min-Chuan Huang, I-Ping Chen, Shu-Ying Chung

Abstract:

Taking the medical staff in an emergency ward of a medical center in Central Taiwan as the research object, the questionnaire data were collected by anonymous and voluntary reporting methods with structured questionnaires to explore organ donation’s actual situation, willingness, and attitude. Only 80 valid questionnaires were gathered. Of the 8 questions, the correct mean rate was 5.9 and the correct rate was 73.13%. According to the statistics of organ donation survey, only 8.7% have signed the consent for organ donation, 21.3% are willing but have not yet signed the consent for organ donation, 62.5% have not yet decided, and 7.5% are unwilling. The average total score (standard deviation) of attitude towards organ donation was 36.2. There is no significant difference between the demographic variables and the awareness and willingness of organ donation, but there is a significant correlation between marital status and the attitude toward organ donation.

Keywords: clinical psychology, organ donation, factors affecting psychological disorders, commitment

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Authors: Yan Lyu, Yiqun Pan, Zhizhong Huang

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In the design stage of a new building, the energy model of this building is often required for the analysis of the performance on energy efficiency. In practice, a certain degree of geometric simplification should be done in the establishment of building energy models, since the detailed geometric features of a real building are hard to be described perfectly in most energy simulation engine, such as ESP-r, eQuest or EnergyPlus. Actually, the detailed description is not necessary when the result with extremely high accuracy is not demanded. Therefore, this paper analyzed the relationship between the error of the simulation result from building energy models and the geometric simplification of the models. Finally, the following two parameters are selected as the indices to characterize the geometric feature of in building energy simulation: the southward projected area and total side surface area of the building. Based on the parameterization method, the simplification from an arbitrary column building to a typical shape (a cuboid) building can be made for energy modeling. The result in this study indicates that no more than 7% prediction error of annual cooling/heating load will be caused by the geometric simplification for those buildings with the ratio of southward projection length to total perimeter of the bottom of 0.25~0.35, which means this method is applicable for building performance simulation.

Keywords: building energy model, simulation, geometric simplification, design, regression

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Authors: Marina Franulovic, Robert Basan, Bozidar Krizan

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Constitutive modeling of material behavior is becoming increasingly important in prediction of possible failures in highly loaded engineering components, and consequently, optimization of their design. In order to account for large number of phenomena that occur in the material during operation, such as kinematic hardening effect in low cycle fatigue behavior of steels, complex nonlinear material models are used ever more frequently, despite of the complexity of determination of their parameters. As a method for the determination of these parameters, genetic algorithm is good choice because of its capability to provide very good approximation of the solution in systems with large number of unknown variables. For the application of genetic algorithm to parameter identification, inverse analysis must be primarily defined. It is used as a tool to fine-tune calculated stress-strain values with experimental ones. In order to choose proper objective function for inverse analysis among already existent and newly developed functions, the research is performed to investigate its influence on material behavior modeling.

Keywords: Genetic algorithm, kinematic hardening, material model, objective function

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Authors: Xu Rumin, Chen Jianyi, Yue Ti, Wang Yaan

Abstract:

With the rapid development of subsea oil and gas exploitation, the demand for the related underwater process equipment is increasing fast. In order to reduce the energy consuming, people tend to separate the gas and oil phase directly on the seabed. Accordingly, an advanced separator is needed. In this paper, the pressure drop of a new type of separator named Gas Liquid Cylindrical Cyclone (GLCC) which is used in the subsea system is investigated by both experiments and numerical simulation. In the experiments, the single phase flow and gas-liquid two phase flow in GLCC were tested. For the simulation, the performance of GLCC under both laboratory and industrial conditions was calculated. The Eulerian model was implemented to describe the mixture flow field in the GLCC under experimental conditions and industrial oil-natural gas conditions. Furthermore, a relationship among Euler number (Eu), Reynolds number (Re), and Froude number (Fr) is generated according to similarity analysis and simulation data, which can present the GLCC separation performance of pressure drop. These results can give reference to the design and application of GLCC in deep sea.

Keywords: Dimensionless analysis, gas-liquid cylindrical cyclone, numerical simulation; pressure drop.

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Authors: Imene Atek, Abed M. Affoune, Hubert Girault, Pekka Peljo

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Due to the need for a rigorous mathematical model that can help to estimate kinetic properties for soluble-insoluble systems, through voltammetric experiments, a Nicholson Semi Analytical Approach was used in this work for modeling and prediction of theoretical linear sweep voltammetry responses for reversible, quasi reversible or irreversible electron transfer reactions. The redox system of interest is a one-step metal electrodeposition process. A rigorous analysis of simulated linear scan voltammetric responses following variation of dimensionless factors, the rate constant and charge transfer coefficients in a broad range was studied and presented in the form of the so called kinetic zones diagrams. These kinetic diagrams were divided into three kinetics zones. Interpreting these zones leads to empirical mathematical models which can allow the experimenter to determine electrodeposition reactions kinetics whatever the degree of reversibility. The validity of the obtained results was tested and an excellent experiment–theory agreement has been showed.

Keywords: Electrodeposition, kinetics diagrams, modeling, voltammetry.

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Authors: Christos Spandonidis, Stefanos Tsantilas, Elias Sedikos, Nektarios Galiatsatos, Fotios Giannopoulos, Panagiotis Papadopoulos, Nikolaos Demagos, Dimitrios Reppas, Christos Giordamlis

Abstract:

In the present paper, a low cost, compact and modular Internet of Things (IoT) platform for air quality monitoring in urban areas is presented. This platform comprises of dedicated low cost, low power hardware and the associated embedded software that enable measurement of particles (PM2.5 and PM10), NO, CO, CO₂ and O₃ concentration in the air, along with relative temperature and humidity. This integrated platform acts as part of a greater air pollution data collecting wireless network that is able to monitor the air quality in various regions and neighborhoods of an urban area, by providing sensor measurements at a high rate that reaches up to one sample per second. It is therefore suitable for Big Data analysis applications such as air quality forecasts, weather forecasts and traffic prediction. The first real world test for the developed platform took place in Thessaloniki, Greece, where 16 devices were installed in various buildings in the city. In the near future, many more of these devices are going to be installed in the greater Thessaloniki area, giving a detailed air quality map of the city.

Keywords: Distributed sensor system, environmental monitoring, Internet of Things, IoT, Smart Cities.

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Authors: Takeshi Takeda

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The author conducted post-test analysis with the RELAP5/MOD3.3 code for an experiment using the ROSA/LSTF (rig of safety assessment/large-scale test facility) that simulated a 1% cold leg small-break loss-of-coolant accident under the failure of scram in a pressurized water reactor. The LSTF test assumed total failure of high-pressure injection system of emergency core cooling system. In the LSTF test, natural circulation contributed to maintain core cooling effect for a relatively long time until core uncovery occurred. The post-test analysis result confirmed inadequate prediction of the primary coolant distribution. The author created the phenomena identification and ranking table (PIRT) for each component. The author investigated the influences of uncertain parameters determined by the PIRT on the cladding surface temperature at a certain time during core uncovery within the defined uncertain ranges.

Keywords: LSTF, LOCA, scram, RELAP5.

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Authors: Samir Khrais, Adel Mahammod Hassan , Amro Gazawi

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The aim of this research is to evaluate surface roughness and develop a multiple regression model for surface roughness as a function of cutting parameters during the turning of flame hardened medium carbon steel with TiN-Al2O3-TiCN coated inserts. An experimental plan of work and signal-to-noise ratio (S/N) were used to relate the influence of turning parameters to the workpiece surface finish utilizing Taguchi methodology. The effects of turning parameters were studied by using the analysis of variance (ANOVA) method. Evaluated parameters were feed, cutting speed, and depth of cut. It was found that the most significant interaction among the considered turning parameters was between depth of cut and feed. The average surface roughness (Ra) resulted by TiN-Al2O3- TiCN coated inserts was about 2.44 μm and minimum value was 0.74 μm. In addition, the regression model was able to predict values for surface roughness in comparison with experimental values within reasonable limit.

Keywords: Medium carbon steel, Prediction, Surface roughness, Taguchi method

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Authors: Yudhajit Datta

Abstract:

Behavioral aspects of experience such as will power are rarely subjected to quantitative study owing to the numerous complexities involved. Will is a phenomenon that has puzzled humanity for a long time. It is a belief that will power of an individual affects the success achieved by them in life. It is also thought that a person endowed with great will power can overcome even the most crippling setbacks in life while a person with a weak will cannot make the most of life even the greatest assets. This study is an attempt to subject the phenomena of will to the test of an artificial neural network through a computational model. The claim being tested is that will power of an individual largely determines success achieved in life. It is proposed that data pertaining to success of individuals be obtained from an experiment and the phenomenon of will be incorporated into the model, through data generated recursively using a relation between will and success characteristic to the model. An artificial neural network trained using part of the data, could subsequently be used to make predictions regarding data points in the rest of the model. The procedure would be tried for different models and the model where the networks predictions are found to be in greatest agreement with the data would be selected; and used for studying the relation between success and will.

Keywords: Will Power, Success, ANN, Time Series Prediction, Sliding Window, Computational Model, Behavioral Phenomena.

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Authors: R. Chanajaree, D. Luanwiset, K. Pongpratea

Abstract:

Dye removal is an environmental concern because the textile industries have been increasing by world population and industrialization. Adsorption is the technique to find adsorbents to remove dyes from wastewater. This method is low-cost and effective for dye removal. This work tries to develop effective adsorbents using the computational approach because it will be able to predict the possibility of the adsorbents for specific dyes in terms of binding free energies. The computational approach is faster and cheaper than the experimental approach in case of finding the best adsorbents. All starting structures of dyes and adsorbents are optimized by quantum calculation. The complexes between dyes and adsorbents are generated by the docking method. The obtained binding free energies from docking are compared to binding free energies from the experimental data. The calculated energies can be ranked as same as the experimental results. In addition, this work also shows the possible orientation of the complexes. This work used two experimental groups of the complexes of the dyes and adsorbents. In the first group, there are chitosan (adsorbent) and two dyes (reactive red (RR) and direct sun yellow (DY)). In the second group, there are poly(1,2-epoxy-3-phenoxy) propane (PEPP), which is the adsorbent, and 2 dyes of bromocresol green (BCG) and alizarin yellow (AY).

Keywords: Dye removal, binding free energies, quantum calculation, docking.

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Authors: Jean François Chatelain, Imed Zaghbani, Joseph Monier

Abstract:

The machining of Carbon Fiber Reinforced Plastics has come to constitute a significant challenge for many fields of industry. The resulting surface finish of machined parts is of primary concern for several reasons, including contact quality and impact on the assembly. Therefore, the characterization and prediction of roughness based on machining parameters are crucial for costeffective operations. In this study, a PCD tool comprised of two straight flutes was used to trim 32-ply carbon fiber laminates in a bid to analyze the effects of the feed rate and the cutting speed on the surface roughness. The results show that while the speed has but a slight impact on the surface finish, the feed rate for its part affects it strongly. A detailed study was also conducted on the effect of fiber orientation on surface roughness, for quasi-isotropic laminates used in aerospace. The resulting roughness profiles for the four-ply orientation lay-up were compared, and it was found that fiber angle is a critical parameter relating to surface roughness. One of the four orientations studied led to very poor surface finishes, and characteristic roughness profiles were identified and found to only relate to the ply orientations of multilayer carbon fiber laminates.

Keywords: Roughness, Detouring, Composites, Aerospace

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Authors: Surinder Deswal, Mahesh Pal

Abstract:

An Artificial Neural Network based modeling technique has been used to study the influence of different combinations of meteorological parameters on evaporation from a reservoir. The data set used is taken from an earlier reported study. Several input combination were tried so as to find out the importance of different input parameters in predicting the evaporation. The prediction accuracy of Artificial Neural Network has also been compared with the accuracy of linear regression for predicting evaporation. The comparison demonstrated superior performance of Artificial Neural Network over linear regression approach. The findings of the study also revealed the requirement of all input parameters considered together, instead of individual parameters taken one at a time as reported in earlier studies, in predicting the evaporation. The highest correlation coefficient (0.960) along with lowest root mean square error (0.865) was obtained with the input combination of air temperature, wind speed, sunshine hours and mean relative humidity. A graph between the actual and predicted values of evaporation suggests that most of the values lie within a scatter of ±15% with all input parameters. The findings of this study suggest the usefulness of ANN technique in predicting the evaporation losses from reservoirs.

Keywords: Artificial neural network, evaporation losses, multiple linear regression, modeling.

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Authors: Jeevan Malayan, Aparna Warrier, Padmasani Venkat Ramanan, Sanjeeva Reddy N, Elanchezhiyan Manickan

Abstract:

MMR vaccine failure had been reported globally and here we report that it occurs now in India. Samples were collected from clinically suspected mumps cases were subjected for anti mumps antibodies, virus isolation, RT-PCR, sequencing and phylogenetic tree analysis. 56 samples collected from men and women belonging to various age groups. 30 had been vaccinated and the status of 26 patients was unknown. 28 out of 30 samples were found to be symptomatic and positive for Mumps IgM, indicating active mumps infection in 93.4% of the vaccinated population. A phylogenetic tree comparison of the clinical isolate is shown to be genotype C which is distinct from vaccine strain. Our study clearly sending warning signs that MMR vaccine is a failure and it needs to be revamped for the human use by increasing its efficacy and efficiency.

Keywords: Genotype C, Mumps virus, MMR vaccine, Sero types.

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Authors: Takashi Yamauchi, Anju Sudo, Yoshihiko Tanno

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Recently, it has been suggested that thought control strategies aimed at controlling unwanted thoughts may be used to cope with paranoid thoughts in both clinical and nonclinical samples. The current study aims to examine the type of thought control strategies that were associated with the frequency of paranoid thoughts in nonclinical samples. A total of 159 Japanese undergraduate students completed the two scales–the Paranoia Checklist and the Thought Control Questionnaire. A hierarchical multiple regression analysis demonstrated that worry-based control strategies were associated with paranoid thoughts, whereas distraction- and social-based control strategies were inversely associated with paranoid thoughts. Our findings suggest that in a nonclinical population, worry-based strategies may be especially maladaptive, whereas distraction- and social-based strategies may be adaptive to paranoid thoughts.

Keywords: Nonclinical population, paranoid thoughts, thoughtcontrol strategies.

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Authors: A. Zanaz, S. Yotte, F. Fouchal, A. Chateauneuf

Abstract:

This paper presents a methodology for probabilistic assessment of bearing capacity and prediction of failure mechanism of masonry vaults at the ultimate state with consideration of the natural variability of Young’s modulus of stones. First, the computation model is explained. The failure mode corresponds to the four-hinge mechanism. Based on this consideration, the study of a vault composed of 16 segments is presented. The Young’s modulus of the segments is considered as random variable defined by a mean value and a coefficient of variation. A relationship linking the vault bearing capacity to the voussoirs modulus variation is proposed. The most probable failure mechanisms, in addition to that observed in the deterministic case, are identified for each variability level as well as their probability of occurrence. The results show that the mechanism observed in the deterministic case has decreasing probability of occurrence in terms of variability, while the number of other mechanisms and their probability of occurrence increases with the coefficient of variation of Young’s modulus. This means that if a significant change in the Young’s modulus of the segments is proven, taking it into account in computations becomes mandatory, both for determining the vault bearing capacity and for predicting its failure mechanism.

Keywords: Masonry, mechanism, probability, variability, vault.

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Authors: Jiangyong Liu, Xiangxiang Xu, Bote Luo, Xiaoxue Luo, Jiang Zhu, Lingzhi Yi

Abstract:

To address the problems of non-linearity and high randomness of the original power load sequence causing the degradation of power load forecasting accuracy, a short-term load forecasting method is proposed. The method is based on the least square support vector machine (LSSVM) optimized by an improved sparrow search algorithm combined with the variational mode decomposition proposed in this paper. The application of the variational mode decomposition technique decomposes the raw power load data into a series of intrinsic mode functions components, which can reduce the complexity and instability of the raw data while overcoming modal confounding; the proposed improved sparrow search algorithm can solve the problem of difficult selection of learning parameters in the LSSVM. Finally, through comparison experiments, the results show that the method can effectively improve prediction accuracy.

Keywords: Load forecasting, variational mode decomposition, improved sparrow search algorithm, least square support vector machine.

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Authors: Manish Pal, Rumi Sutradhar

Abstract:

Pavement surface unevenness plays a pivotal role on roughness index of road which affects on riding comfort ability. Comfort ability refers to the degree of protection offered to vehicle occupants from uneven elements in the road surface. So, it is preferable to have a lower roughness index value for a better riding quality of road users. Roughness is generally defined as an expression of irregularities in the pavement surface which can be measured using different equipments like MERLIN, Bump integrator, Profilometer etc. Among them Bump Integrator is quite simple and less time consuming in case of long road sections. A case study is conducted on low volume roads in West District in Tripura to determine roughness index (RI) using Bump Integrator at the standard speed of 32 km/h. But it becomes too tough to maintain the requisite standard speed throughout the road section. The speed of Bump Integrator (BI) has to lower or higher in some distinctive situations. So, it becomes necessary to convert these roughness index values of other speeds to the standard speed of 32 km/h. This paper highlights on that roughness index conversional model. Using SPSS (Statistical Package of Social Sciences) software a generalized equation is derived among the RI value at standard speed of 32 km/h and RI value at other speed conditions.

Keywords: Bump Integrator, Pavement Distresses, Roughness Index, SPSS.

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Authors: Ruth Lijtmaer, Roy Moodley, Shafik Sunderani

Abstract:

The argument that self-disclosure will change the psychoanalytic process into a socio-cultural niche distorting the therapeutic alliance and compromise therapeutic effectiveness is still the widely held belief amongst many psychotherapists. This paper considers the issues surrounding culture, disclosure and concealment since they remain largely untheorized and clinically problematic. The first part of the paper will critically examine the theory and practice of psychoanalysis across cultures, and explore the reasons for culturally diverse patients to conceal rather than disclose their feelings and thoughts in the transference. This is followed by a discussion on how immigrant analysts- anonymity is difficult to maintain since diverse nationalities, language and accents provide clues to the therapist-s and patient-s origins. Through personal clinical examples of one the author-s (who is an immigrant) the paper analyses the transference-countertransference paradigm and how it reflects in the analyst-s self-revelation.

Keywords: Self-disclosure, cross-cultural, transferencecountertransference, immigrant therapist.

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