Search results for: nonparametric statistical model.
7197 A Hybrid Particle Swarm Optimization-Nelder- Mead Algorithm (PSO-NM) for Nelson-Siegel- Svensson Calibration
Authors: Sofia Ayouche, Rachid Ellaia, Rajae Aboulaich
Abstract:
Today, insurers may use the yield curve as an indicator evaluation of the profit or the performance of their portfolios; therefore, they modeled it by one class of model that has the ability to fit and forecast the future term structure of interest rates. This class of model is the Nelson-Siegel-Svensson model. Unfortunately, many authors have reported a lot of difficulties when they want to calibrate the model because the optimization problem is not convex and has multiple local optima. In this context, we implement a hybrid Particle Swarm optimization and Nelder Mead algorithm in order to minimize by least squares method, the difference between the zero-coupon curve and the NSS curve.Keywords: Optimization, zero-coupon curve, Nelson-Siegel- Svensson, Particle Swarm Optimization, Nelder-Mead Algorithm.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 14747196 Evaluation of Low-Reducible Sinter in Blast Furnace Technology by Mathematical Model Developed at Centre ENET, VSB – Technical University of Ostrava
Authors: S. Jursová, P. Pustějovská, S. Brožová, J. Bilík
Abstract:
The paper deals with possibilities of interpretation of iron ore reducibility tests. It presents a mathematical model developed at Centre ENET, VŠB – Technical University of Ostrava, Czech Republic for an evaluation of metallurgical material of blast furnace feedstock such as iron ore, sinter or pellets. According to the data from the test, the model predicts its usage in blast furnace technology and its effects on production parameters of shaft aggregate. At the beginning, the paper sums up the general concept and experience in mathematical modelling of iron ore reduction. It presents basic equation for the calculation and the main parts of the developed model. In the experimental part, there is an example of usage of the mathematical model. The paper describes the usage of data for some predictive calculation. There are presented material, method of carried test of iron ore reducibility. Then there are graphically interpreted effects of used material on carbon consumption, rate of direct reduction and the whole reduction process.
Keywords: Blast furnace technology, iron ore reduction, mathematical model, prediction of iron ore reduction.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 19797195 Performance Analysis Model Development for Mae Moh Coal-Fired Power Plant
Authors: Thitiporn Supasri, Natanee Vorayos, Piriya Thongchiew
Abstract:
Electrification is a complex process and governed by various parameters. Modeling of power plant’s target efficiency or target heat rate is often formulated and compared with the actual values. This comparison not only implies the performance of the power plant but also reflects the energy losses possibly inherited in some of related equipment and processes. The current modeling of Coal-fired Mae Moh power plant was formulated at the first commissioning. Some of equipments were replaced due to its life time. Relatively outdated for 20 years, the utilization of the model is not accomplished. This work has focused on the development of the performance analysis model of aforementioned power plant according to the most updated and current working conditions. The model is more appropriate and shows accuracy in its analysis. Losses are detected and measures are introduced such that reduction in energy consumption, related cost, and also environment impacts can be anticipated.
Keywords: Performance analysis model, Power plant modeling, Target heat rate, Target efficiency.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 23197194 Using Model to Plan of Strategic Objectives
Authors: Terezie Bartusková, Jitka Baňařová, Zuzana Kusněřová
Abstract:
Importance of strategic planning is unquestionable. However, the practical implementation of a strategic plan faces too many obstacles. The aim of the article is explained the importance of strategic planning and to find how companies in Moravian-Silesian Region deal with strategic planning, and to introduce the model, which helps to set strategic goals in financial indicators area. This model should be part of the whole process of strategic planning and can be use to predict the future values of financial indicators of the company with regard to the factor, which influence these indicators.
Keywords: Planning of Potentials, Planning of Strategic Objectives, Portfolio Planning, Significant Factors, Strategic Planning.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 12277193 Automatic Flood Prediction Using Rainfall Runoff Model in Moravian-Silesian Region
Authors: B. Sir, M. Podhoranyi, S. Kuchar, T. Kocyan
Abstract:
Rainfall runoff models play important role in hydrological predictions. However, the model is only one part of the process for creation of flood prediction. The aim of this paper is to show the process of successful prediction for flood event (May 15 – May 18 2014). Prediction was performed by rainfall runoff model HEC–HMS, one of the models computed within Floreon+ system. The paper briefly evaluates the results of automatic hydrologic prediction on the river Olše catchment and its gages Český Těšín and Věřňovice.Keywords: Flood, HEC-HMS, Prediction, Rainfall – Runoff.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 22087192 Percolation Transition with Hidden Variables in Complex Networks
Authors: Zhanli Zhang, Wei Chen, Xin Jiang, Lili Ma, Shaoting Tang, Zhiming Zheng
Abstract:
A new class of percolation model in complex networks, in which nodes are characterized by hidden variables reflecting the properties of nodes and the occupied probability of each link is determined by the hidden variables of the end nodes, is studied in this paper. By the mean field theory, the analytical expressions for the phase of percolation transition is deduced. It is determined by the distribution of the hidden variables for the nodes and the occupied probability between pairs of them. Moreover, the analytical expressions obtained are checked by means of numerical simulations on a particular model. Besides, the general model can be applied to describe and control practical diffusion models, such as disease diffusion model, scientists cooperation networks, and so on.Keywords: complex networks, percolation transition, hidden variable, occupied probability.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 15997191 Modeling Sustainable Truck Rental Operations Using Closed-Loop Supply Chain Network
Authors: Khaled S. Abdallah, Abdel-Aziz M. Mohamed
Abstract:
Moving industries consume numerous resources and dispose masses of used packaging materials. Proper sorting, recycling and disposing the packaging materials is necessary to avoid a sever pollution disaster. This research paper presents a conceptual model to propose sustainable truck rental operations instead of the regular one. An optimization model was developed to select the locations of truck rental centers, collection sites, maintenance and repair sites, and identify the rental fees to be charged for all routes that maximize the total closed supply chain profits. Fixed costs of vehicle purchasing, costs of constructing collection centers and repair centers, as well as the fixed costs paid to use disposal and recycling centers are considered. Operating costs include the truck maintenance, repair costs as well as the cost of recycling and disposing the packing materials, and the costs of relocating the truck are presented in the model. A mixed integer model is developed followed by a simulation model to examine the factors affecting the operation of the model.Keywords: Modeling, truck rental, supply chains management, simulation.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 8087190 Numerical Modeling of Artisanal and Small-Scale Mining of Coltan in the African Great Lakes Region
Authors: Sergio Perez Rodriguez
Abstract:
Findings of a production model of Artisanal and Small-Scale Mining (ASM) of coltan ore by an average Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) mineworker are presented in this paper. These can be used as a reference for a similar characterization of the daily labor of counterparts from other countries in the Africa's Great Lakes region. To that end, the Fundamental Equation of Mineral Production has been applied in this paper, considering a miner's average daily output of coltan, estimated in the base of gross statistical data gathered from reputable sources. Results indicate daily yields of individual miners in the order of 300 g of coltan ore, with hourly peaks of production in the range of 30 to 40 g of the mineral. Yields are expected to be in the order of 5 g or less during the least productive hours. These outputs are expected to be achieved during the halves of the eight to 10 hours of daily working sessions that these artisanal laborers can attend during the mining season.
Keywords: Coltan, mineral production, Production to Reserve ratio, artisanal mining, small-scale mining, ASM, human work, Great Lakes region, Democratic Republic of Congo.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1727189 Simulation of the Large Hadrons Collisions Using Monte Carlo Tools
Authors: E. Al Daoud
Abstract:
In many cases, theoretical treatments are available for models for which there is no perfect physical realization. In this situation, the only possible test for an approximate theoretical solution is to compare with data generated from a computer simulation. In this paper, Monte Carlo tools are used to study and compare the elementary particles models. All the experiments are implemented using 10000 events, and the simulated energy is 13 TeV. The mean and the curves of several variables are calculated for each model using MadAnalysis 5. Anomalies in the results can be seen in the muons masses of the minimal supersymmetric standard model and the two Higgs doublet model.Keywords: Feynman rules, hadrons, Lagrangian, Monte Carlo, simulation.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 11147188 Virtual Container Yard: Assessing the Perceived Impact of Legal Implications to Container Carriers
Authors: L. Edirisinghe, P. Mukherjee, H. Edirisinghe
Abstract:
Virtual Container Yard (VCY) is a modern concept that helps to reduce the empty container repositioning cost of carriers. The concept of VCY is based on container interchange between shipping lines. Although this mechanism has been theoretically accepted by the shipping community as a feasible solution, it has not yet achieved the necessary momentum among container shipping lines (CSL). This paper investigates whether there is any legal influence on this industry myopia about the VCY. It is believed that this is the first publication that focuses on the legal aspects of container exchange between carriers. Not much literature on this subject is available. This study establishes with statistical evidence that there is a phobia prevailing in the shipping industry that exchanging containers with other carriers may lead to various legal implications. The complexity of exchange is two faceted. CSLs assume that offering a container to another carrier (obviously, a competitor in terms of commercial context) or using a container offered by another carrier may lead to undue legal implications. This research reveals that this fear is reflected through four types of perceived components, namely: shipping associate; warehouse associate; network associate; and trading associate. These components carry eighteen subcomponents that comprehensively cover the entire process of a container shipment. The statistical explanation has been supported through regression analysis; INCO terms were used to illustrate the shipping process.
Keywords: Container, legal, shipping, virtual.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 5977187 DEVS Modeling of Network Vulnerability
Authors: Hee Suk Seo, Tae Kyung Kim
Abstract:
As network components grow larger and more diverse, and as securing them on a host-by-host basis grow more difficult, more sites are turning to a network security model. We concentrate on controlling network access to various hosts and the services they offer, rather than on securing them one by one with a network security model. We present how the policy rules from vulnerabilities stored in SVDB (Simulation based Vulnerability Data Base) are inducted, and how to be used in PBN. In the network security environment, each simulation model is hierarchically designed by DEVS (Discrete EVent system Specification) formalism.Keywords: SVDB, PBN, DEVS, Network security.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 15577186 A new Heuristic Algorithm for the Dynamic Facility Layout Problem with Budget Constraint
Authors: Parham Azimi, Hamid Reza Charmchi
Abstract:
In this research, we have developed a new efficient heuristic algorithm for the dynamic facility layout problem with budget constraint (DFLPB). This heuristic algorithm combines two mathematical programming methods such as discrete event simulation and linear integer programming (IP) to obtain a near optimum solution. In the proposed algorithm, the non-linear model of the DFLP has been changed to a pure integer programming (PIP) model. Then, the optimal solution of the PIP model has been used in a simulation model that has been designed in a similar manner as the DFLP for determining the probability of assigning a facility to a location. After a sufficient number of runs, the simulation model obtains near optimum solutions. Finally, to verify the performance of the algorithm, several test problems have been solved. The results show that the proposed algorithm is more efficient in terms of speed and accuracy than other heuristic algorithms presented in previous works found in the literature.Keywords: Budget constraint, Dynamic facility layout problem, Integer programming, Simulation
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 19537185 Procedure Model for Data-Driven Decision Support Regarding the Integration of Renewable Energies into Industrial Energy Management
Authors: M. Graus, K. Westhoff, X. Xu
Abstract:
The climate change causes a change in all aspects of society. While the expansion of renewable energies proceeds, industry could not be convinced based on general studies about the potential of demand side management to reinforce smart grid considerations in their operational business. In this article, a procedure model for a case-specific data-driven decision support for industrial energy management based on a holistic data analytics approach is presented. The model is executed on the example of the strategic decision problem, to integrate the aspect of renewable energies into industrial energy management. This question is induced due to considerations of changing the electricity contract model from a standard rate to volatile energy prices corresponding to the energy spot market which is increasingly more affected by renewable energies. The procedure model corresponds to a data analytics process consisting on a data model, analysis, simulation and optimization step. This procedure will help to quantify the potentials of sustainable production concepts based on the data from a factory. The model is validated with data from a printer in analogy to a simple production machine. The overall goal is to establish smart grid principles for industry via the transformation from knowledge-driven to data-driven decisions within manufacturing companies.
Keywords: Data analytics, green production, industrial energy management, optimization, renewable energies, simulation.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 17107184 Upsetting of Tri-Metallic St-Cu-Al and St-Cu60Zn-Al Cylindrical Billets
Authors: Isik Cetintav, Cenk Misirli, Yilmaz Can
Abstract:
This work investigates upsetting of the tri-metallic cylindrical billets both experimentally and analytically with a reduction ratio 30%. Steel, brass, and copper are used for the outer and outmost rings and aluminum for the inner core. Two different models have been designed to show material flow and the cavity took place over the two interfaces during forming after this reduction ratio. Each model has an outmost ring material as steel. Model 1 has an outer ring between the outmost ring and the solid core material as copper and Model 2 has a material as brass. Solid core is aluminum for each model. Billets were upset in press machine by using parallel flat dies. Upsetting load was recorded and compared for models and single billets. To extend the tests and compare with experimental procedure to a wider range of inner core and outer ring geometries, finite element model was performed. ABAQUS software was used for the simulations. The aim is to show how contact between outmost ring, outer ring and the inner core are carried on throughout the upsetting process. Results have shown that, with changing in height, between outmost ring, outer ring and inner core, the Model 1 and Model 2 had very good interaction, and the contact surfaces of models had various interface behaviour. It is also observed that tri-metallic materials have lower weight but better mechanical properties than single materials. This can give an idea for using and producing these new materials for different purposes.
Keywords: Tri-metallic, upsetting, copper, brass, steel, aluminum.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 11297183 A Model of a Heat Radiation on a Mould Surface in the Car Industry
Abstract:
This article is focused on the calculation of heat radiation intensity and its optimization on an aluminum mould surface. The inside of the mould is sprinkled with a special powder and its outside is heated by infra heaters located above the mould surface, up to a temperature of 250°C. By this way artificial leathers in the car industry are produced (e. g. the artificial leather on a car dashboard). A mathematical model of heat radiation of infra heaters on a mould surface is described in this paper. This model allows us to calculate a heat-intensity radiation on the mould surface for the concrete location of infra heaters above the mould surface. It is necessary to ensure approximately the same heat intensity radiation on the mould surface by finding a suitable location for the infra heaters, and in this way the same material structure and color of artificial leather. In the model we have used a genetic algorithm to optimize the radiation intensity on the mould surface. Experimental measured values for the heat radiation intensity by a sensor in the surroundings of an infra heater are used for the calculation procedures. A computational procedure was programmed in language Matlab.Keywords: Genetic algorithm, mathematical model of heat radiation, optimization of radiation intensity, software implementation
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 13927182 Stepwise Refinement in Executable-UML for Embedded System Design: A Preliminary Study
Authors: Nurul Azma Zakaria, Masahiro Kimura, Noriko Matsumoto, Norihiko Yoshida
Abstract:
The fast growth in complexity coupled with requests for shorter development periods for embedded systems are bringing demands towards a more effective, i.e. higher-abstract, design process for hardaware/software integrated design. In Software Engineering area, Model Driven Architecture (MDA) and Executable UML (xUML) has been accepted to bring further improvement in software design. This paper constructs MDA and xUML stepwise transformations from an abstract specification model to a more concrete implementation model using the refactoring technique for hardaware/software integrated design. This approach provides clear and structured models which enables quick exploration and synthesis, and early stage verification.
Keywords: Hardware/software integrated design, model driven architecture, executable UML, refactoring.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 13497181 Probabilistic Model Development for Project Performance Forecasting
Authors: Milad Eghtedari Naeini, Gholamreza Heravi
Abstract:
In this paper, based on the past project cost and time performance, a model for forecasting project cost performance is developed. This study presents a probabilistic project control concept to assure an acceptable forecast of project cost performance. In this concept project activities are classified into sub-groups entitled control accounts. Then obtain the Stochastic S-Curve (SS-Curve), for each sub-group and the project SS-Curve is obtained by summing sub-groups- SS-Curves. In this model, project cost uncertainties are considered through Beta distribution functions of the project activities costs required to complete the project at every selected time sections through project accomplishment, which are extracted from a variety of sources. Based on this model, after a percentage of the project progress, the project performance is measured via Earned Value Management to adjust the primary cost probability distribution functions. Then, accordingly the future project cost performance is predicted by using the Monte-Carlo simulation method.Keywords: Monte Carlo method, Probabilistic model, Project forecasting, Stochastic S-curve
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 27007180 A Multiple Linear Regression Model to Predict the Price of Cement in Nigeria
Authors: Kenneth M. Oba
Abstract:
This study investigated factors affecting the price of cement in Nigeria, and developed a mathematical model that can predict future cement prices. Cement is key in the Nigerian construction industry. The changes in price caused by certain factors could affect economic and infrastructural development; hence there is need for proper proactive planning. Secondary data were collected from published information on cement between 2014 and 2019. In addition, questionnaires were sent to some domestic cement retailers in Port Harcourt in Nigeria, to obtain the actual prices of cement between the same periods. The study revealed that the most critical factors affecting the price of cement in Nigeria are inflation rate, population growth rate, and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate. With the use of data from United Nations, International Monetary Fund, and Central Bank of Nigeria databases, amongst others, a Multiple Linear Regression model was formulated. The model was used to predict the price of cement for 2020-2025. The model was then tested with 95% confidence level, using a two-tailed t-test and an F-test, resulting in an R2 of 0.8428 and R2 (adj.) of 0.6069. The results of the tests and the correlation factors confirm the model to be fit and adequate. This study will equip researchers and stakeholders in the construction industry with information for planning, monitoring, and management of present and future construction projects that involve the use of cement.
Keywords: Cement price, multiple linear regression model, Nigerian Construction Industry, price prediction.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 7727179 A Trust Model using Fuzzy Logic in Wireless Sensor Network
Authors: Tae Kyung Kim, Hee Suk Seo
Abstract:
Adapting various sensor devices to communicate within sensor networks empowers us by providing range of possibilities. The sensors in sensor networks need to know their measurable belief of trust for efficient and safe communication. In this paper, we suggested a trust model using fuzzy logic in sensor network. Trust is an aggregation of consensus given a set of past interaction among sensors. We applied our suggested model to sensor networks in order to show how trust mechanisms are involved in communicating algorithm to choose the proper path from source to destination.Keywords: Fuzzy, Sensor Networks, Trust.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 35367178 Development of Risk Assessment and Occupational Safety Management Model for Building Construction Projects
Authors: Preeda Sansakorn, Min An
Abstract:
In order to be capable of dealing with uncertainties, subjectivities, including vagueness arising in building construction projects, the application of fuzzy reasoning technique based on fuzzy set theory is proposed. This study contributes significantly to the development of a fuzzy reasoning safety risk assessment model for building construction projects that could be employed to assess the risk magnitude of each hazardous event identified during construction, and a third parameter of probability of consequence is incorporated in the model. By using the proposed safety risk analysis methodology, more reliable and less ambiguities, which provide the safety risk management project team for decision-making purposes.
Keywords: Safety risks assessment, building construction safety, fuzzy reasoning, construction risk assessment model, building construction projects.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 23257177 TELUM Land Use Model: An Investigation of Data Requirements and Calibration Results for Chittenden County MPO, U.S.A.
Authors: Georgia Pozoukidou
Abstract:
TELUM software is a land use model designed specifically to help metropolitan planning organizations (MPOs) prepare their transportation improvement programs and fulfill their numerous planning responsibilities. In this context obtaining, preparing, and validating socioeconomic forecasts are becoming fundamental tasks for an MPO in order to ensure that consistent population and employment data are provided to travel demand models. Chittenden County Metropolitan Planning Organization of Vermont State was used as a case study to test the applicability of TELUM land use model. The technical insights and lessons learned from the land use model application have transferable value for all MPOs faced with land use forecasting development and transportation modeling.
Keywords: Calibration data requirements, land use models, land use planning, Metropolitan Planning Organizations.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 20817176 A Framework of the Factors Affecting the Adoption of ICT for Physical Education
Authors: T. T. Ntshakala, S. D. Eyono Obono
Abstract:
Physical education (PE) is still neglected in schools despite its academic, social, psychological, and health benefits. Based on the assumption that Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs) can contribute to the development of PE in schools, this study aims to design a model of the factors affecting the adoption of ICTs for PE in schools. The proposed model is based on a sound theoretical framework. It was designed following a literature review of technology adoption theories and of ICT adoption factors for physical education. The technology adoption model that fitted to the best all ICT adoption factors was then chosen as the basis for the proposed model. It was found that the Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology (UTAUT) is the most adequate theoretical framework for the modeling of ICT adoption factors for physical education.
Keywords: Adoption factors, basic education, physical education, technology adoption theories.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 34627175 Tuning of Thermal FEA Using Krylov Parametric MOR for Subsea Application
Authors: A. Suleng, T. Jelstad Olsen, J. Šindler, P. Bárta
Abstract:
A dead leg is a typical subsea production system component. CFD is required to model heat transfer within the dead leg. Unfortunately its solution is time demanding and thus not suitable for fast prediction or repeated simulations. Therefore there is a need to create a thermal FEA model, mimicking the heat flows and temperatures seen in CFD cool down simulations. This paper describes the conventional way of tuning and a new automated way using parametric model order reduction (PMOR) together with an optimization algorithm. The tuned FE analyses replicate the steady state CFD parameters within a maximum error in heat flow of 6 % and 3 % using manual and PMOR method respectively. During cool down, the relative error of the tuned FEA models with respect to temperature is below 5% comparing to the CFD. In addition, the PMOR method obtained the correct FEA setup five times faster than the manually tuned FEA.Keywords: CFD, convective heat, FEA, model tuning, subseaproduction
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 17137174 Uniformly Persistence of a Predator-Prey Model with Holling III Type Functional Response
Authors: Yanling Zhu
Abstract:
In this paper, a predator-prey model with Holling III type functional response is studied. It is interesting that the system is always uniformly persistent, which yields the existence of at least one positive periodic solutions for the corresponding periodic system. The result improves the corresponding ones in [11]. Moreover, an example is illustrated to verify the results by simulation.
Keywords: Predator-prey model, Uniformly persistence, Comparisontheorem, Holling III type functional response.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 14687173 Increasing the Heterogeneity and Competition of Early Stage Financing: An Analysis of the Role of Crowdfunding in Entrepreneurial Ventures
Authors: Lars Silver, Björn Berggren, Andreas Fili
Abstract:
The financial crisis has decreased the opportunities of small businesses to acquire financing through conventional financial actors, such as commercial banks. This credit constraint is partly the reason for the emergence of new alternatives of financing, in addition to the spreading opportunities for communication and secure financial transfer through Internet. One of the most interesting venues for finance is termed “crowdfunding". As the term suggests crowdfunding is an appeal to prospective customers and investors to form a crowd that will finance projects that otherwise would find it hard to generate support through the most common financial actors. Crowdfunding is in this paper divided into different models; the threshold model, the microfinance model, the micro loan model and the equity model. All these models add to the financial possibilities of emerging entrepreneurs.Keywords: Entrepreneurship, crowdfunding, equity finance, bank finance.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 26717172 Seismic Analysis of a S-Curved Viaduct using Stick and Finite Element Models
Authors: Sourabh Agrawal, Ashok K. Jain
Abstract:
Stick models are widely used in studying the behaviour of straight as well as skew bridges and viaducts subjected to earthquakes while carrying out preliminary studies. The application of such models to highly curved bridges continues to pose challenging problems. A viaduct proposed in the foothills of the Himalayas in Northern India is chosen for the study. It is having 8 simply supported spans @ 30 m c/c. It is doubly curved in horizontal plane with 20 m radius. It is inclined in vertical plane as well. The superstructure consists of a box section. Three models have been used: a conventional stick model, an improved stick model and a 3D finite element model. The improved stick model is employed by making use of body constraints in order to study its capabilities. The first 8 frequencies are about 9.71% away in the latter two models. Later the difference increases to 80% in 50th mode. The viaduct was subjected to all three components of the El Centro earthquake of May 1940. The numerical integration was carried out using the Hilber- Hughes-Taylor method as implemented in SAP2000. Axial forces and moments in the bridge piers as well as lateral displacements at the bearing levels are compared for the three models. The maximum difference in the axial forces and bending moments and displacements vary by 25% between the improved and finite element model. Whereas, the maximum difference in the axial forces, moments, and displacements in various sections vary by 35% between the improved stick model and equivalent straight stick model. The difference for torsional moment was as high as 75%. It is concluded that the stick model with body constraints to model the bearings and expansion joints is not desirable in very sharp S curved viaducts even for preliminary analysis. This model can be used only to determine first 10 frequency and mode shapes but not for member forces. A 3D finite element analysis must be carried out for meaningful results.Keywords: Bearing, body constraint, box girder, curved viaduct, expansion joint, finite element, link element, seismic, stick model, time history analysis.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 23407171 A Machine Learning Approach for Anomaly Detection in Environmental IoT-Driven Wastewater Purification Systems
Authors: Giovanni Cicceri, Roberta Maisano, Nathalie Morey, Salvatore Distefano
Abstract:
The main goal of this paper is to present a solution for a water purification system based on an Environmental Internet of Things (EIoT) platform to monitor and control water quality and machine learning (ML) models to support decision making and speed up the processes of purification of water. A real case study has been implemented by deploying an EIoT platform and a network of devices, called Gramb meters and belonging to the Gramb project, on wastewater purification systems located in Calabria, south of Italy. The data thus collected are used to control the wastewater quality, detect anomalies and predict the behaviour of the purification system. To this extent, three different statistical and machine learning models have been adopted and thus compared: Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) autoencoder, and Facebook Prophet (FP). The results demonstrated that the ML solution (LSTM) out-perform classical statistical approaches (ARIMA, FP), in terms of both accuracy, efficiency and effectiveness in monitoring and controlling the wastewater purification processes.Keywords: EIoT, machine learning, anomaly detection, environment monitoring.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 9877170 Early Supplier Involvement in New Product Development: A Casting-Network Collaboration Model
Authors: Taneli Eisto, Venlakaisa Hölttä, Katrine Mahlamäki, Janne Kollanus, Marko Nieminen
Abstract:
Early supplier involvement (ESI) benefits new product development projects several ways. Nevertheless, many castuser companies do not know the advantages of ESI and therefore do not utilize it. This paper presents reasons why to utilize ESI in casting industry and how that can be done. Further, this paper presents advantages and challenges related to ESI in casting industry, and introduces a Casting-Network Collaboration Model. The model presents practices for companies to build advantageous collaborative relationships. More detailed, the model describes three levels for company-network relationships in casting industry with different degrees of collaboration, and requirements for operating in each level. In our research, ESI was found to influence, for example, on project time, component cost, and quality. In addition, challenges related to ESI, such as, a lack of mutual trust and unawareness about the advantages were found. Our research approach was a case study including four cases.Keywords: Casting Industry, Collaboration Model, EarlySupplier Involvement, New Product Development.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 84607169 Numerical Analysis of Rapid Gas Decompression in Pure Nitrogen using 1D and 3D Transient Mathematical Models of Gas Flow in Pipes
Authors: Evgeniy Burlutskiy
Abstract:
The paper presents a numerical investigation on the rapid gas decompression in pure nitrogen which is made by using the one-dimensional (1D) and three-dimensional (3D) mathematical models of transient compressible non-isothermal fluid flow in pipes. A 1D transient mathematical model of compressible thermal multicomponent fluid mixture flow in pipes is presented. The set of the mass, momentum and enthalpy conservation equations for gas phase is solved in the model. Thermo-physical properties of multicomponent gas mixture are calculated by solving the Equation of State (EOS) model. The Soave-Redlich-Kwong (SRK-EOS) model is chosen. This model is successfully validated on the experimental data [1] and shows a good agreement with measurements. A 3D transient mathematical model of compressible thermal single-component gas flow in pipes, which is built by using the CFD Fluent code (ANSYS), is presented in the paper. The set of unsteady Reynolds-averaged conservation equations for gas phase is solved. Thermo-physical properties of single-component gas are calculated by solving the Real Gas Equation of State (EOS) model. The simplest case of gas decompression in pure nitrogen is simulated using both 1D and 3D models. The ability of both models to simulate the process of rapid decompression with a high order of agreement with each other is tested. Both, 1D and 3D numerical results show a good agreement between each other. The numerical investigation shows that 3D CFD model is very helpful in order to validate 1D simulation results if the experimental data is absent or limited.Keywords: Mathematical model, Rapid Gas Decompression
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 22077168 Research on Hybrid Neural Network in Intrusion Detection System
Authors: Jianhua Wang, Yan Yu
Abstract:
This paper presents an intrusion detection system of hybrid neural network model based on RBF and Elman. It is used for anomaly detection and misuse detection. This model has the memory function .It can detect discrete and related aggressive behavior effectively. RBF network is a real-time pattern classifier, and Elman network achieves the memory ability for former event. Based on the hybrid model intrusion detection system uses DARPA data set to do test evaluation. It uses ROC curve to display the test result intuitively. After the experiment it proves this hybrid model intrusion detection system can effectively improve the detection rate, and reduce the rate of false alarm and fail.
Keywords: RBF, Elman, anomaly detection, misuse detection, hybrid neural network.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2317