Search results for: Alarm correlation
Commenced in January 2007
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Edition: International
Paper Count: 1114

Search results for: Alarm correlation

94 Copper Price Prediction Model for Various Economic Situations

Authors: Haidy S. Ghali, Engy Serag, A. Samer Ezeldin

Abstract:

Copper is an essential raw material used in the construction industry. During 2021 and the first half of 2022, the global market suffered from a significant fluctuation in copper raw material prices due to the aftermath of both the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war which exposed its consumers to an unexpected financial risk. Thereto, this paper aims to develop two hybrid price prediction models using artificial neural network and long short-term memory (ANN-LSTM), by Python, that can forecast the average monthly copper prices, traded in the London Metal Exchange; the first model is a multivariate model that forecasts the copper price of the next 1-month and the second is a univariate model that predicts the copper prices of the upcoming three months. Historical data of average monthly London Metal Exchange copper prices are collected from January 2009 till July 2022 and potential external factors are identified and employed in the multivariate model. These factors lie under three main categories: energy prices, and economic indicators of the three major exporting countries of copper depending on the data availability. Before developing the LSTM models, the collected external parameters are analyzed with respect to the copper prices using correlation, and multicollinearity tests in R software; then, the parameters are further screened to select the parameters that influence the copper prices. Then, the two LSTM models are developed, and the dataset is divided into training, validation, and testing sets. The results show that the performance of the 3-month prediction model is better than the 1-month prediction model; but still, both models can act as predicting tools for diverse economic situations.

Keywords: Copper prices, prediction model, neural network, time series forecasting.

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93 Body Composition Index Predict Children’s Motor Skills Proficiency

Authors: Sarina Md Yusof, Suhana Aiman, Mohd Khairi Zawi, Hosni Hasan, Azila Azreen Md Radzi

Abstract:

Failure in mastery of motor skills proficiency during childhood has been seen as a detrimental factor for children to be physically active. Lack of motor skills proficiency tends to reduce children’s competency and confidence level to participate in physical activity. As a consequence of less participation in physical activity, children will turn to be overweight and obese. It has been suggested that children who master motor skill proficiency will be more involved in physical activity thus preventing them from being overweight. Obesity has become a serious childhood health issues worldwide. Previous studies have found that children who were overweight and obese were generally less active however these studies focused on one gender. This study aims to compare motor skill proficiency of underweight, normal-weight, overweight and obese young boys as well as to determine the relationship between motor skills proficiency and body composition. 112 boys aged between 8 to 10 years old participated in this study. Participants were assigned to four groups; underweight, normal-weight, overweight and obese using BMI-age percentile chart for children. Bruininks- Oseretsky Test Second Edition-Short Form was administered to assess their motor skill proficiency. Meanwhile, body composition was determined by the skinfold thickness measurement. Result indicated that underweight and normal children were superior in motor skills proficiency compared to overweight and obese children (p < 0.05). A significant strong inverse correlation between motor skills proficiency and body composition (r = -0.849) is noted. The findings of this study could be explained by non-contributory mass that carried by overweight and obese children leads to biomechanical movement inefficiency which will become detrimental to motor skills proficiency. It can be concluded that motor skills proficiency is inversely correlated with body composition.

Keywords: Motor skills proficiency, body composition, obesity.

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92 Estimating Spatial Disaggregation of Urban Thermal Responsiveness on Summer Diurnal Range with a Numerical Modeling Approach in Bangkok, Thailand

Authors: Manat Srivanit, Hokao Kazunori

Abstract:

Facing the concern of the population to its environment and to climatic change, city planners are now considering the urban climate in their choices of planning. The urban climate, representing different urban morphologies across central Bangkok metropolitan area (BMA), are used to investigates the effects of both the composition and configuration of variables of urban morphology indicators on the summer diurnal range of urban climate, using correlation analyses and multiple linear regressions. Results show first indicate that approximately 92.6% of the variation in the average maximum daytime near-surface air temperature (Ta) was explained jointly by the two composition variables of urban morphology indicators including open space ratio (OSR) and floor area ratio (FAR). It has been possible to determine the membership of sample areas to the local climate zones (LCZs) using these urban morphology descriptors automatically computed with GIS and remote sensed data. Finally result found the temperature differences among zones of large separation, such as the city center could be respectively from 35.48±1.04ºC (Mean±S.D.) warmer than the outskirt of Bangkok on average for maximum daytime near surface temperature to 28.27±0.21ºC for extreme event and, can exceed as 8ºC. A spatially disaggregation of urban thermal responsiveness map would be helpful for several reasons. First, it would localize urban areas concerned by different climate behavior over summer daytime and be a good indicator of urban climate variability. Second, when overlaid with a land cover map, this map may contribute to identify possible urban management strategies to reduce heat wave effects in BMA.

Keywords: Urban climate, Urban morphology, Local climate zone, Urban planning, GIS and remote sensing

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91 Nonlinear Finite Element Modeling of Deep Beam Resting on Linear and Nonlinear Random Soil

Authors: M. Seguini, D. Nedjar

Abstract:

An accuracy nonlinear analysis of a deep beam resting on elastic perfectly plastic soil is carried out in this study. In fact, a nonlinear finite element modeling for large deflection and moderate rotation of Euler-Bernoulli beam resting on linear and nonlinear random soil is investigated. The geometric nonlinear analysis of the beam is based on the theory of von Kàrmàn, where the Newton-Raphson incremental iteration method is implemented in a Matlab code to solve the nonlinear equation of the soil-beam interaction system. However, two analyses (deterministic and probabilistic) are proposed to verify the accuracy and the efficiency of the proposed model where the theory of the local average based on the Monte Carlo approach is used to analyze the effect of the spatial variability of the soil properties on the nonlinear beam response. The effect of six main parameters are investigated: the external load, the length of a beam, the coefficient of subgrade reaction of the soil, the Young’s modulus of the beam, the coefficient of variation and the correlation length of the soil’s coefficient of subgrade reaction. A comparison between the beam resting on linear and nonlinear soil models is presented for different beam’s length and external load. Numerical results have been obtained for the combination of the geometric nonlinearity of beam and material nonlinearity of random soil. This comparison highlighted the need of including the material nonlinearity and spatial variability of the soil in the geometric nonlinear analysis, when the beam undergoes large deflections.

Keywords: Finite element method, geometric nonlinearity, material nonlinearity, soil-structure interaction, spatial variability.

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90 CAGE Questionnaire as a Screening Tool for Hazardous Drinking in an Acute Admissions Ward: Frequency of Application and Comparison with AUDIT-C Questionnaire

Authors: Ammar Ayad Issa Al-Rifaie, Zuhreya Muazu, Maysam Ali Abdulwahid, Dermot Gleeson

Abstract:

The aim of this audit was to examine the efficiency of alcohol history documentation and screening for hazardous drinkers at the Medical Admission Unit (MAU) of Northern General Hospital (NGH), Sheffield, to identify any potential for enhancing clinical practice. Data were collected from medical clerking sheets, ICE system and directly from 82 patients by three junior medical doctors using both CAGE questionnaire and AUDIT-C tool for newly admitted patients to MAU in NGH, in the period between January and March 2015. Alcohol consumption was documented in around two-third of the patient sample and this was documented fairly accurately by health care professionals. Some used subjective words such as 'social drinking' in the alcohol units’ section of the history. CAGE questionnaire was applied to only four patients and none of the patients had documented advice, education or referral to an alcohol liaison team. AUDIT-C tool had identified 30.4%, while CAGE 10.9%, of patients admitted to the NGH MAU as hazardous drinkers. The amount of alcohol the patient consumes positively correlated with the score of AUDIT-C (Pearson correlation 0.83). Re-audit is planned to be carried out after integrating AUDIT-C tool as labels in the notes and presenting a brief teaching session to junior doctors. Alcohol misuse screening is not adequately undertaken and no appropriate action is being offered to hazardous drinkers. CAGE questionnaire is poorly applied to patients and when satisfactory and adequately used has low sensitivity to detect hazardous drinkers in comparison with AUDIT-C tool. Re-audit of alcohol screening practice after introducing AUDIT-C tool in clerking sheets (as labels) is required to compare the findings and conclude the audit cycle.

Keywords: Alcohol screening, AUDIT-C, CAGE, Hazardous drinking.

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89 Density of Hydrocarbonoclastic Bacteria and Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbon Accumulation in Iko River Mangrove Ecosystem, Nigeria

Authors: Ime R. Udotong, Samuel I. Eduok, Joseph P. Essien, Basil N. Ita

Abstract:

Sediment and mangrove root samples from Iko River Estuary, Nigeria were analyzed for microbial and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) content. The total heterotrophic bacterial (THB) count ranged from 1.1x107 to 5.1 x107 cfu/g, total fungal (TF) count ranged from 1.0x106 to 2.7x106 cfu/g, total coliform (TC) count ranged from 2.0x104 to 8.0x104cfu/g while hydrocarbon utilizing bacterial (HUB) count ranged from 1.0x 105 to 5.0 x 105cfu/g. There was a range of positive correlation (r = 0.72 to 0.93) between THB count and total HUB count, respectively. The organisms were Staphylococcus aureus, Bacillus cereus, Flavobacterium breve, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, Erwinia amylovora, Escherichia coli, Enterobacter sp, Desulfovibrio sp, Acinetobacter iwoffii, Chromobacterium violaceum, Micrococcus sedentarius, Corynebacterium sp, and Pseudomonas putrefaciens. The PAH were Naphthalene, 2-Methylnaphthalene, Acenapthylene, Acenaphthene, Fluorene, Phenanthene, Anthracene, Fluoranthene, Pyrene, Benzo(a)anthracene, Chrysene, Benzo(b)fluoranthene, Benzo(k)fluoranthene, Benzo(a)pyrene, Dibenzo(a,h)anthracene, Benzo(g,h,l)perylene ,Indeno(1,2,3-d)pyrene with individual PAH concentrations that ranged from 0.20mg/kg to 1.02mg/kg, 0.20mg/kg to 1.07mg/kg and 0.2mg/kg to 4.43mg/kg in the benthic sediment, epipellic sediment and mangrove roots, respectively. Total PAH ranged from 6.30 to 9.93mg/kg, 6.30 to 9.13mg/kg and 9.66 to 16.68mg/kg in the benthic sediment, epipellic sediment and mangrove roots, respectively. The high concentrations in the mangrove roots are indicative of bioaccumulation of the pollutant in the plant tissue. The microorganisms are of ecological significance and the detectable quantities of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon could be partitioned and accumulated in tissues of infaunal and epifaunal organisms in the study area.

Keywords: Hydrocarbonoclastic bacteria, Iko River estuary, Mangrove, Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon.

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88 Trend Analysis of Annual Total Precipitation Data in Konya

Authors: Naci Büyükkaracığan

Abstract:

Hydroclimatic observation values ​​are used in the planning of the project of water resources. Climate variables are the first of the values ​​used in planning projects. At the same time, the climate system is a complex and interactive system involving the atmosphere, land surfaces, snow and bubbles, the oceans and other water structures. The amount and distribution of precipitation, which is an important climate parameter, is a limiting environmental factor for dispersed living things. Trend analysis is applied to the detection of the presence of a pattern or trend in the data set. Many trends work in different parts of the world are usually made for the determination of climate change. The detection and attribution of past trends and variability in climatic variables is essential for explaining potential future alteration resulting from anthropogenic activities. Parametric and non-parametric tests are used for determining the trends in climatic variables. In this study, trend tests were applied to annual total precipitation data obtained in period of 1972 and 2012, in the Konya Basin. Non-parametric trend tests, (Sen’s T, Spearman’s Rho, Mann-Kendal, Sen’s T trend, Wald-Wolfowitz) and parametric test (mean square) were applied to annual total precipitations of 15 stations for trend analysis. The linear slopes (change per unit time) of trends are calculated by using a non-parametric estimator developed by Sen. The beginning of trends is determined by using the Mann-Kendall rank correlation test. In addition, homogeneities in precipitation trends are tested by using a method developed by Van Belle and Hughes. As a result of tests, negative linear slopes were found in annual total precipitations in Konya.

Keywords: Trend analysis, precipitation, hydroclimatology, Konya, Turkey.

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87 Systematic Analysis of Dynamic Association of Health Outcomes with Computer Usage for Office Staff

Authors: Xiaoshu Lu, Esa-Pekka Takala, Risto Toivonen

Abstract:

This paper systematically investigates the timedependent health outcomes for office staff during computer work using the developed mathematical model. The model describes timedependent health outcomes in multiple body regions associated with computer usage. The association is explicitly presented with a doseresponse relationship which is parametrized by body region parameters. Using the developed model we perform extensive investigations of the health outcomes statically and dynamically. We compare the risk body regions and provide various severity rankings of the discomfort rate changes with respect to computer-related workload dynamically for the study population. Application of the developed model reveals a wide range of findings. Such broad spectrum of investigations in a single report literature is lacking. Based upon the model analysis, it is discovered that the highest average severity level of the discomfort exists in neck, shoulder, eyes, shoulder joint/upper arm, upper back, low back and head etc. The biggest weekly changes of discomfort rates are in eyes, neck, head, shoulder, shoulder joint/upper arm and upper back etc. The fastest discomfort rate is found in neck, followed by shoulder, eyes, head, shoulder joint/upper arm and upper back etc. Most of our findings are consistent with the literature, which demonstrates that the developed model and results are applicable and valuable and can be utilized to assess correlation between the amount of computer-related workload and health risk.

Keywords: Computer-related workload, health outcomes, dynamic association, dose-response relationship, systematic analysis.

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86 Waist Circumference-Related Performance of Tense Indices during Varying Pediatric Obesity States and Metabolic Syndrome

Authors: Mustafa M. Donma

Abstract:

Obesity increases the risk of elevated blood pressure, which is a metabolic syndrome (MetS) component. Waist circumference (WC) is accepted as an indispensable parameter for the evaluation of these health problems. The close relationship of height with blood pressure values revealed the necessity of including height in tense indices. The association of tense indices with WC has also become an increasingly important topic. The purpose of this study was to develop a tense index that could contribute to differential diagnosis of MetS more than the indices previously introduced. 194 children, aged 6-11 years, were considered to constitute four groups. The study was performed on normal weight (Group 1), overweight + obese (Group 2), morbid obese [without (Group 3) and with (Group 4) MetS findings] children. Children were included in the groups according to the recommendations of World Health Organization based on age- and gender-dependent body mass index percentiles. For MetS group, MetS components well-established before were considered. Anthropometric measurements as well as blood pressure values were taken. Statistical calculations were performed. 0.05 was accepted as the p value indicating statistical significance. There were no statistically significant differences between the groups for pulse pressure, systolic-to-diastolic pressure ratio and tense index. Increasing values were observed from Group 1 to Group 4 in terms of mean arterial blood pressure and ADTI, which was highly correlated with WC in all groups except Group 1. Both tense index and ADTI exhibited significant correlations with WC in Group 3. However, in Group 4, ADTI, which includes height parameter in the equation, was unique in establishing a strong correlation with WC. In conclusion, ADTI was suggested as a tense index while investigating children with MetS.

Keywords: Blood pressure, metabolic syndrome, waist circumference.

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85 Hydraulic Optimization of an Adjustable Spiral-Shaped Evaporator

Authors: Matthias Feiner, Francisco Javier Fernández García, Michael Arneman, Martin Kipfmüller

Abstract:

To ensure reliability in miniaturized devices or processes with increased heat fluxes, very efficient cooling methods have to be employed in order to cope with small available cooling surfaces. To address this problem, a certain type of evaporator/heat exchanger was developed: It is called a swirl evaporator due to its flow characteristic. The swirl evaporator consists of a concentrically eroded screw geometry in which a capillary tube is guided, which is inserted into a pocket hole in components with high heat load. The liquid refrigerant R32 is sprayed through the capillary tube to the end face of the blind hole and is sucked off against the injection direction in the screw geometry. Its inner diameter is between one and three millimeters. The refrigerant is sprayed into the pocket hole via a small tube aligned in the center of the bore hole and is sucked off on the front side of the hole against the direction of injection. The refrigerant is sucked off in a helical geometry (twisted flow) so that it is accelerated against the hot wall (centrifugal acceleration). This results in an increase in the critical heat flux of up to 40%. In this way, more heat can be dissipated on the same surface/available installation space. This enables a wide range of technical applications. To optimize the design for the needs in various fields of industry, like the internal tool cooling when machining nickel base alloys like Inconel 718, a correlation-based model of the swirl-evaporator was developed. The model is separated into 3 subgroups with overall 5 regimes. The pressure drop and heat transfer are calculated separately. An approach to determine the locality of phase change in the capillary and the swirl was implemented. A test stand has been developed to verify the simulation.

Keywords: Helically-shaped, oil-free, R32, swirl-evaporator, twist flow.

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84 Appraisal of Trace Elements in Scalp Hair of School Children in Kandal Province, Cambodia

Authors: A. Yavar, S. Sarmani, K. S. Khoo

Abstract:

The analysis of trace elements in human hair provides crucial insights into an individual's nutritional status and environmental exposure. This research aimed to examine the levels of toxic and essential elements in the scalp hair of school children aged 12-17 from three villages (Anglong Romiot (AR), Svay Romiot (SR), and Kampong Kong (KK)) in Cambodia's Kandal province, a region where residents are especially vulnerable to toxic elements, notably arsenic (As), due to their dietary habits, lifestyle, and environmental conditions. The scalp hair samples were analyzed using the k0-Instrumental Neutron Activation method (k0-INAA), with a six-hour irradiation period in the Malaysian Nuclear Agency (MNA) research reactor followed by High Purity Germanium (HPGe) detector use to identify the gamma peaks of radionuclides. The analysis identified 31 elements in the human hair from the study area, including As, Au, Br, Ca, Ce, Co, Dy, Eu-152m, Hg-197, Hg-203, Ho, Ir, K, La, Lu, Mn, Na, Pa, Pt-195m, Pt-197, Sb, Sc-46, Sc-47, Sm, Sn-117m, W-181, W-187, Yb-169, Yb-175, Zn, and Zn-69m. The accuracy of the method was verified through the analysis of ERM-DB001-human hair as a Certified Reference Material (CRM), with the results demonstrating consistency with the certified values. Given the prevalent arsenic pollution in the research area, the study also examined the relationship between the concentration of As and other elements using Pearson's correlation test. The outcomes offer a comprehensive resource for future investigations into toxic and essential element presence in the region. In the main body of the paper, a more extensive discussion on the implications of arsenic pollution and the correlations observed is provided to enhance understanding and inform future research directions.

Keywords: Human scalp hair, toxic and essential elements, Kandal Province, Cambodia, k0-Instrumental Neutron Activation Method.

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83 Visual Study on Flow Patterns and Heat Transfer during Convective Boiling Inside Horizontal Smooth and Microfin Tubes

Authors: V.D. Hatamipour, M.A. Akhavan-Behabadi

Abstract:

Evaporator is an important and widely used heat exchanger in air conditioning and refrigeration industries. Different methods have been used by investigators to increase the heat transfer rates in evaporators. One of the passive techniques to enhance heat transfer coefficient is the application of microfin tubes. The mechanism of heat transfer augmentation in microfin tubes is dependent on the flow regime of two-phase flow. Therefore many investigations of the flow patterns for in-tube evaporation have been reported in literatures. The gravitational force, surface tension and the vapor-liquid interfacial shear stress are known as three dominant factors controlling the vapor and liquid distribution inside the tube. A review of the existing literature reveals that the previous investigations were concerned with the two-phase flow pattern for flow boiling in horizontal tubes [12], [9]. Therefore, the objective of the present investigation is to obtain information about the two-phase flow patterns for evaporation of R-134a inside horizontal smooth and microfin tubes. Also Investigation of heat transfer during flow boiling of R-134a inside horizontal microfin and smooth tube have been carried out experimentally The heat transfer coefficients for annular flow in the smooth tube is shown to agree well with Gungor and Winterton-s correlation [4]. All the flow patterns occurred in the test can be divided into three dominant regimes, i.e., stratified-wavy flow, wavy-annular flow and annular flow. Experimental data are plotted in two kinds of flow maps, i.e., Weber number for the vapor versus weber number for the liquid flow map and mass flux versus vapor quality flow map. The transition from wavy-annular flow to annular or stratified-wavy flow is identified in the flow maps.

Keywords: Flow boiling, Flow pattern, Heat transfer, Horizontal, Smooth tube, Microfin tube.

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82 Factors Determining Intention to Pursue Genetic Testing for People in Taiwan

Authors: Ju-Chun Chien

Abstract:

The Ottawa Charter for Health Promotion proposed that the role of health services should shift the focus from cure to prevention. Nowadays, besides having physical examinations, people could also conduct genetic tests to provide important information for diagnosing, treating, and/or preventing illnesses. However, because of the incompletion of the Chinese Genetic Database, people in Taiwan were still unfamiliar with genetic testing. The purposes of the present study were to: (1) Figure out people’s attitudes towards genetic testing. (2) Examine factors that influence people’s intention to pursue genetic testing by means of the Health Belief Model (HBM). A pilot study was conducted on 249 Taiwanese in 2017 to test the feasibility of the self-developed instrument. The reliability and construct validity of scores on the self-developed questionnaire revealed that this HBM-based questionnaire with 40 items was a well-developed instrument. A total of 542 participants were recruited and the valid participants were 535 (99%) between the ages of 20 and 86. Descriptive statistics, one-way ANOVA, two-way contingency table analysis, Pearson’s correlation, and stepwise multiple regression analysis were used in this study. The main results were that only 32 participants (6%) had already undergone genetic testing; moreover, their attitude towards genetic testing was more positive than those who did not have the experience. Compared with people who never underwent genetic tests, those who had gone for genetic testing had higher self-efficacy, greater intention to pursue genetic testing, had academic majors in health-related fields, had chronic and genetic diseases, possessed Catastrophic Illness Cards, and all of them had heard about genetic testing. The variables that best predicted people’s intention to pursue genetic testing were cues to action, self-efficacy, and perceived benefits (the three variables all correlated with one another positively at high magnitudes). To sum up, the HBM could be effective in designing and identifying the needs and priorities of the target population to pursue genetic testing.

Keywords: Genetic testing, intention to pursue genetic testing, Taiwan, health belief model.

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81 Analysis of Surface Hardness, Surface Roughness, and Near Surface Microstructure of AISI 4140 Steel Worked with Turn-Assisted Deep Cold Rolling Process

Authors: P. R. Prabhu, S. M. Kulkarni, S. S. Sharma, K. Jagannath, Achutha Kini U.

Abstract:

In the present study, response surface methodology has been used to optimize turn-assisted deep cold rolling process of AISI 4140 steel. A regression model is developed to predict surface hardness and surface roughness using response surface methodology and central composite design. In the development of predictive model, deep cold rolling force, ball diameter, initial roughness of the workpiece, and number of tool passes are considered as model variables. The rolling force and the ball diameter are the significant factors on the surface hardness and ball diameter and numbers of tool passes are found to be significant for surface roughness. The predicted surface hardness and surface roughness values and the subsequent verification experiments under the optimal operating conditions confirmed the validity of the predicted model. The absolute average error between the experimental and predicted values at the optimal combination of parameter settings for surface hardness and surface roughness is calculated as 0.16% and 1.58% respectively. Using the optimal processing parameters, the surface hardness is improved from 225 to 306 HV, which resulted in an increase in the near surface hardness by about 36% and the surface roughness is improved from 4.84µm to 0.252 µm, which resulted in decrease in the surface roughness by about 95%. The depth of compression is found to be more than 300µm from the microstructure analysis and this is in correlation with the results obtained from the microhardness measurements. Taylor hobson talysurf tester, micro vickers hardness tester, optical microscopy and X-ray diffractometer are used to characterize the modified surface layer. 

Keywords: Surface hardness, response surface methodology, microstructure, central composite design, deep cold rolling, surface roughness.

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80 Validation on 3D Surface Roughness Algorithm for Measuring Roughness of Psoriasis Lesion

Authors: M.H. Ahmad Fadzil, Esa Prakasa, Hurriyatul Fitriyah, Hermawan Nugroho, Azura Mohd Affandi, S.H. Hussein

Abstract:

Psoriasis is a widespread skin disease affecting up to 2% population with plaque psoriasis accounting to about 80%. It can be identified as a red lesion and for the higher severity the lesion is usually covered with rough scale. Psoriasis Area Severity Index (PASI) scoring is the gold standard method for measuring psoriasis severity. Scaliness is one of PASI parameter that needs to be quantified in PASI scoring. Surface roughness of lesion can be used as a scaliness feature, since existing scale on lesion surface makes the lesion rougher. The dermatologist usually assesses the severity through their tactile sense, therefore direct contact between doctor and patient is required. The problem is the doctor may not assess the lesion objectively. In this paper, a digital image analysis technique is developed to objectively determine the scaliness of the psoriasis lesion and provide the PASI scaliness score. Psoriasis lesion is modelled by a rough surface. The rough surface is created by superimposing a smooth average (curve) surface with a triangular waveform. For roughness determination, a polynomial surface fitting is used to estimate average surface followed by a subtraction between rough and average surface to give elevation surface (surface deviations). Roughness index is calculated by using average roughness equation to the height map matrix. The roughness algorithm has been tested to 444 lesion models. From roughness validation result, only 6 models can not be accepted (percentage error is greater than 10%). These errors occur due the scanned image quality. Roughness algorithm is validated for roughness measurement on abrasive papers at flat surface. The Pearson-s correlation coefficient of grade value (G) of abrasive paper and Ra is -0.9488, its shows there is a strong relation between G and Ra. The algorithm needs to be improved by surface filtering, especially to overcome a problem with noisy data.

Keywords: psoriasis, roughness algorithm, polynomial surfacefitting.

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79 Fundamental Research on Factors Affecting the Under-Film Corrosion Behavior of Coated Steel Members

Authors: T. Sakamoto, S. Kainuma

Abstract:

Firstly, in order to examine the influence of the remaining amount of the rust on the coating film durability, the accelerated deterioration tests were carried out. In order to prepare test specimens, uncoated steel plates were corroded by the Salt Spray Test (SST) prior to the accelerated deterioration tests, and then the prepared test specimens were coated by epoxy resin and phthalic acid resin each of which has different gas-barrier performance. As the result, it was confirmed that the under-film corrosion occurred in the area and the adjacency to great quantities of salt exists in the rust, and did not occurred in the specimen which was applied the epoxy resin paint after the surface preparation by the power tool. Secondly, in order to clarify the influence of the corrosive factors on the coating film durability, outdoor exposure tests were conducted for one year on actual steel bridge located at a coastal area. The tests specimens consist of coated corroded plates and the uncoated steel plates, and they were installed on the different structural members of the bridge for one year. From the test results, the uncoated steel plates which were installed on the underside of the member are easily corrosive and had highly correlation with the amount of salt in the rust. On the other hand, the most corrosive under-film steel was the vertical surface of the web plate. Thus, it was confirmed that under-film corrosion rate was not match with corrosion rate of the uncoated steel. Consequently, it is estimated that the main factors of under-film corrosion are gas-barrier property of coating film and corrosive factors such as water vapor and temperature. The salt which significantly corrodes the uncoated steel plate is not directly related to the under-film corrosion.

Keywords: Accelerated deterioration test, Coating durability, Environmental factor, Under-film corrosion.

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78 Implementing Education 4.0 Trends in Language Learning

Authors: Luz Janeth Ospina M.

Abstract:

The fourth industrial revolution is changing the role of education substantially and, therefore, the role of instructors and learners at all levels. Education 4.0 is an imminent response to the needs of a globalized world where humans and technology are being aligned to enable endless possibilities, among them the need for students, as digital natives, to communicate effectively in at least one language besides their mother tongue, and also the requirement of developing theirs. This is an exploratory study in which a control group (N = 21), all of the students of Spanish as a foreign language at the university level, after taking a Spanish class, responded to an online questionnaire about the engagement, atmosphere, and environment in which their course was delivered. These aspects considered in the survey were relative to the instructor’s teaching style, including: (a) active, hands-on learning; (b) flexibility for in-class activities, easily switching between small group work, individual work, and whole-class discussion; and (c) integrating technology into the classroom. Strongly believing in these principles, the instructor deliberately taught the course in a SCALE-UP room, as it could facilitate such a positive and encouraging learning environment. These aspects are trends related to Education 4.0 and have become integral to the instructor’s pedagogical stance that calls for a constructive-affective role, instead of a transmissive one. As expected, with a learning environment that (a) fosters student engagement and (b) improves student outcomes, the subjects were highly engaged, which was partially due to the learning environment. An overwhelming majority (all but one) of students agreed or strongly agreed that the atmosphere and the environment were ideal. Outcomes of this study are relevant and indicate that it is about time for teachers to build up a meaningful correlation between humans and technology. We should see the trends of Education 4.0 not as a threat but as practices that should be in the hands of critical and creative instructors whose pedagogical stance responds to the needs of the learners in the 21st century.

Keywords: Active learning, education 4.0, higher education, pedagogical stance.

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77 Comparison of Composite Programming and Compromise Programming for Aircraft Selection Problem Using Multiple Criteria Decision Making Analysis Method

Authors: C. Ardil

Abstract:

In this paper, the comparison of composite programming and compromise programming for the aircraft selection problem is discussed using the multiple criteria decision analysis method. The decision making process requires the prior definition and fulfillment of certain factors, especially when it comes to complex areas such as aircraft selection problems. The proposed technique gives more efficient results by extending the composite programming and compromise programming, which are widely used in modeling multiple criteria decisions. The proposed model is applied to a practical decision problem for evaluating and selecting aircraft problems.A selection of aircraft was made based on the proposed approach developed in the field of multiple criteria decision making. The model presented is solved by using the following methods: composite programming, and compromise programming. The importance values of the weight coefficients of the criteria are calculated using the mean weight method. The evaluation and ranking of aircraft are carried out using the composite programming and compromise programming methods. In order to determine the stability of the model and the ability to apply the developed composite programming and compromise programming approach, the paper analyzes its sensitivity, which involves changing the value of the coefficient λ and q in the first part. The second part of the sensitivity analysis relates to the application of different multiple criteria decision making methods, composite programming and compromise programming. In addition, in the third part of the sensitivity analysis, the Spearman correlation coefficient of the ranks obtained was calculated which confirms the applicability of all the proposed approaches.

Keywords: composite programming, compromise programming, additive weighted model, multiplicative weighted model, multiple criteria decision making analysis, MCDMA, aircraft selection

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76 Classifying Turbomachinery Blade Mode Shapes Using Artificial Neural Networks

Authors: Ismail Abubakar, Hamid Mehrabi, Reg Morton

Abstract:

Currently, extensive signal analysis is performed in order to evaluate structural health of turbomachinery blades. This approach is affected by constraints of time and the availability of qualified personnel. Thus, new approaches to blade dynamics identification that provide faster and more accurate results are sought after. Generally, modal analysis is employed in acquiring dynamic properties of a vibrating turbomachinery blade and is widely adopted in condition monitoring of blades. The analysis provides useful information on the different modes of vibration and natural frequencies by exploring different shapes that can be taken up during vibration since all mode shapes have their corresponding natural frequencies. Experimental modal testing and finite element analysis are the traditional methods used to evaluate mode shapes with limited application to real live scenario to facilitate a robust condition monitoring scheme. For a real time mode shape evaluation, rapid evaluation and low computational cost is required and traditional techniques are unsuitable. In this study, artificial neural network is developed to evaluate the mode shape of a lab scale rotating blade assembly by using result from finite element modal analysis as training data. The network performance evaluation shows that artificial neural network (ANN) is capable of mapping the correlation between natural frequencies and mode shapes. This is achieved without the need of extensive signal analysis. The approach offers advantage from the perspective that the network is able to classify mode shapes and can be employed in real time including simplicity in implementation and accuracy of the prediction. The work paves the way for further development of robust condition monitoring system that incorporates real time mode shape evaluation.

Keywords: Modal analysis, artificial neural network, mode shape, natural frequencies, pattern recognition.

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75 Energy Interaction among HVAC and Supermarket Environment

Authors: D. Woradechjumroen, H. Li, Y. Yu

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Supermarkets are the most electricity-intensive type of commercial buildings. The unsuitable indoor environment of a supermarket provided by abnormal HVAC operations incurs waste energy consumption in refrigeration systems. This current study briefly describes significantly solid backgrounds and proposes easyto- use analysis terminology for investigating the impact of HVAC operations on refrigeration power consumption using the field-test data obtained from building automation system (BAS). With solid backgrounds and prior knowledge, expected energy interactions between HVAC and refrigeration systems are proposed through Pearson’s correlation analysis (R value) by considering correlations between equipment power consumption and dominantly independent variables (driving force conditions).The R value can be conveniently utilized to evaluate how strong relations between equipment operations and driving force parameters are. The calculated R values obtained from field data are compared to expected ranges of R values computed by energy interaction methodology. The comparisons can separate the operational conditions of equipment into faulty and normal conditions. This analysis can simply investigate the condition of equipment operations or building sensors because equipment could be abnormal conditions due to routine operations or faulty commissioning processes in field tests. With systematically solid and easy-to-use backgrounds of interactions provided in the present article, the procedures can be utilized as a tool to evaluate the proper commissioning and routine operations of HVAC and refrigeration systems to detect simple faults (e.g. sensors and driving force environment of refrigeration systems and equipment set-point) and optimize power consumption in supermarket buildings. Moreover, the analysis will be used to further study the FDD research for supermarkets in future.

Keywords: Energy interaction, HVAC, R-value, Supermarket buildings.

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74 Influence of Thermal Damage on the Mechanical Strength of Trimmed CFRP

Authors: Guillaume Mullier, Jean François Chatelain

Abstract:

Carbon Fiber Reinforced Plastics (CFRPs) are widely used for advanced applications, in particular in aerospace, automotive and wind energy industries. Once cured to near net shape, CFRP parts need several finishing operations such as trimming, milling or drilling in order to accommodate fastening hardware and meeting the final dimensions. The present research aims to study the effect of the cutting temperature in trimming on the mechanical strength of high performance CFRP laminates used for aeronautics applications. The cutting temperature is of great importance when dealing with trimming of CFRP. Temperatures higher than the glass-transition temperature (Tg) of the resin matrix are highly undesirable: they cause degradation of the matrix in the trimmed edges area, which can severely affect the mechanical performance of the entire component. In this study, a 9.50mm diameter CVD diamond coated carbide tool with six flutes was used to trim 24-plies CFRP laminates. A 300m/min cutting speed and 1140mm/min feed rate were used in the experiments. The tool was heated prior to trimming using a blowtorch, for temperatures ranging from 20°C to 300°C. The temperature at the cutting edge was measured using embedded KType thermocouples. Samples trimmed for different cutting temperatures, below and above Tg, were mechanically tested using three-points bending short-beam loading configurations. New cutting tools as well as worn cutting tools were utilized for the experiments. The experiments with the new tools could not prove any correlation between the length of cut, the cutting temperature and the mechanical performance. Thus mechanical strength was constant, regardless of the cutting temperature. However, for worn tools, producing a cutting temperature rising up to 450°C, thermal damage of the resin was observed. The mechanical tests showed a reduced mean resistance in short beam configuration, while the resistance in three point bending decreases with increase of the cutting temperature.

Keywords: Composites, Trimming, Thermal Damage, Surface Quality.

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73 Associations between Metabolic Syndrome and Bone Mineral Density and Trabecular Bone Score in Postmenopausal Women with Non-Vertebral Fractures

Authors: Vladyslav Povoroznyuk, Larysa Martynyuk, Iryna Syzonenko, Liliya Martynyuk

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Medical, social, and economic relevance of osteoporosis is caused by reducing quality of life, increasing disability and mortality of the patients as a result of fractures due to the low-energy trauma. This study is aimed to examine the associations of metabolic syndrome components, bone mineral density (BMD) and trabecular bone score (TBS) in menopausal women with non-vertebral fractures. 1161 menopausal women aged 50-79 year-old were examined and divided into three groups: A included 419 women with increased body weight (BMI - 25.0-29.9 kg/m2), B – 442 females with obesity (BMI >29.9 kg/m2)i and C – 300 women with metabolic syndrome (diagnosis according to IDF criteria, 2005). BMD of lumbar spine (L1-L4), femoral neck, total body and forearm was investigated with usage of dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry. The bone quality indexes were measured according to Med-Imaps installation. All analyses were performed using Statistical Package 6.0. BMD of lumbar spine (L1-L4), femoral neck, total body, and ultradistal radius was significant higher in women with obesity and metabolic syndrome compared to the pre-obese ones (p<0.001). TBS was significantly higher in women with increased body weight compared to obese and metabolic syndrome patients. Analysis showed significant positive correlation between waist circumference, triglycerides level and BMD of lumbar spine and femur. Significant negative association between serum HDL level and BMD of investigated sites was established. The TBS (L1-L4) indexes positively correlated with HDL (high-density lipoprotein) level. Despite the fact that BMD indexes were better in women with metabolic syndrome, the frequency of non-vertebral fractures was significantly higher in this group of patients.

Keywords: Bone mineral density, trabecular bone score, metabolic syndrome, fracture.

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72 Implicit Responses for Assessment of Autism Based on Natural Behaviors Obtained Inside Immersive Virtual Environment

Authors: E. Olmos-Raya, A. Cascales Martínez, N. Minto de Sousa, M. Alcañiz Raya

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The late detection and subjectivity of the assessment of Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) imposed a difficulty for the children’s clinical and familiar environment. The results showed in this paper, are part of a research project about the assessment and training of social skills in children with ASD, whose overall goal is the use of virtual environments together with physiological measures in order to find a new model of objective ASD assessment based on implicit brain processes measures. In particular, this work tries to contribute by studying the differences and changes in the Skin Conductance Response (SCR) and Eye Tracking (ET) between a typical development group (TD group) and an ASD group (ASD group) after several combined stimuli using a low cost Immersive Virtual Environment (IVE). Subjects were exposed to a virtual environment that showed natural scenes that stimulated visual, auditory and olfactory perceptual system. By exposing them to the IVE, subjects showed natural behaviors while measuring SCR and ET. This study compared measures of subjects diagnosed with ASD (N = 18) with a control group of subjects with typical development (N=10) when exposed to three different conditions: only visual (V), visual and auditory (VA) and visual, auditory and olfactory (VAO) stimulation. Correlations between SCR and ET measures were also correlated with the Autism Diagnostic Observation Schedule (ADOS) test. SCR measures showed significant differences among the experimental condition between groups. The ASD group presented higher level of SCR while we did not find significant differences between groups regarding DF. We found high significant correlations among all the experimental conditions in SCR measures and the subscale of ADOS test of imagination and symbolic thinking. Regarding the correlation between ET measures and ADOS test, the results showed significant relationship between VA condition and communication scores.

Keywords: Autism, electrodermal activity, eye tracking, immersive virtual environment, virtual reality.

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71 Statistical Approach to Identify Stress and Biases Impairing Decision-Making in High-Risk Industry

Authors: Ph. Fauquet-Alekhine

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Decision-making occurs several times an hour when working in high risk industry and an erroneous choice might have undesirable outcomes for people and the environment surrounding the industrial plant. Industrial decisions are very often made in a context of acute stress. Time pressure is a crucial stressor leading decision makers sometimes to boost up the decision-making process and if it is not possible then shift to the simplest strategy. We thus found it interesting to update the characterization of the stress factors impairing decision-making at Chinon Nuclear Power Plant (France) in order to optimize decision making contexts and/or associated processes. The investigation was based on the analysis of reports addressing safety events over the last 3 years. Among 93 reports, those explicitly addressing decision-making issues were identified. Characterization of each event was undertaken in terms of three criteria: stressors, biases impairing decision making and weaknesses of the decision-making process. The statistical analysis showed that biases were distributed over 10 possibilities among which the hypothesis confirmation bias was clearly salient. No significant correlation was found between criteria. The analysis indicated that the main stressor was time pressure and highlights an unexpected form of stressor: the trust asymmetry principle of the expert. The analysis led to the conclusion that this stressor impaired decision-making from a psychological angle rather than from a physiological angle: it induces defensive bias of self-esteem, self-protection associated with a bias of confirmation. This leads to the hypothesis that this stressor can intervene in some cases without being detected, and to the hypothesis that other stressors of the same kind might occur without being detected too. Further investigations addressing these hypotheses are considered. The analysis also led to the conclusion that dealing with these issues implied i) decision-making methods being well known to the workers and automated and ii) the decision-making tools being well known and strictly applied. Training was thus adjusted.

Keywords: Bias, expert, high risk industry, stress.

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70 Main Control Factors of Fluid Loss in Drilling and Completion in Shunbei Oilfield by Unmanned Intervention Algorithm

Authors: Peng Zhang, Lihui Zheng, Xiangchun Wang, Xiaopan Kou

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Quantitative research on the main control factors of lost circulation has few considerations and single data source. Using Unmanned Intervention Algorithm to find the main control factors of lost circulation adopts all measurable parameters. The degree of lost circulation is characterized by the loss rate as the objective function. Geological, engineering and fluid data are used as layers, and 27 factors such as wellhead coordinates and Weight on Bit (WOB) used as dimensions. Data classification is implemented to determine function independent variables. The mathematical equation of loss rate and 27 influencing factors is established by multiple regression method, and the undetermined coefficient method is used to solve the undetermined coefficient of the equation. Only three factors in t-test are greater than the test value 40, and the F-test value is 96.557%, indicating that the correlation of the model is good. The funnel viscosity, final shear force and drilling time were selected as the main control factors by elimination method, contribution rate method and functional method. The calculated values of the two wells used for verification differ from the actual values by -3.036 m3/h and -2.374 m3/h, with errors of 7.21% and 6.35%. The influence of engineering factors on the loss rate is greater than that of funnel viscosity and final shear force, and the influence of the three factors is less than that of geological factors. The best combination of funnel viscosity, final shear force and drilling time is obtained through quantitative calculation. The minimum loss rate of lost circulation wells in Shunbei area is 10 m3/h. It can be seen that man-made main control factors can only slow down the leakage, but cannot fundamentally eliminate it. This is more in line with the characteristics of karst caves and fractures in Shunbei fault solution oil and gas reservoir.

Keywords: Drilling fluid, loss rate, main controlling factors, Unmanned Intervention Algorithm.

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69 Improving Urban Mobility: Analyzing Impacts of Connected and Automated Vehicles on Traffic and Emissions

Authors: Saad Roustom, Hajo Ribberink

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In most cities in the world, traffic has increased strongly over the last decades, causing high levels of congestion and deteriorating inner-city air quality. This study analyzes the impact of connected and automated vehicles (CAVs) on traffic performance and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions under different CAV penetration rates in mixed fleet environments of CAVs and driver-operated vehicles (DOVs) and under three different traffic demand levels. Utilizing meso-scale traffic simulations of the City of Ottawa, Canada, the research evaluates the traffic performance of three distinct CAV driving behaviors—Cautious, Normal, and Aggressive—at penetration rates of 25%, 50%, 75%, and 100%, across three different traffic demand levels. The study employs advanced correlation models to estimate GHG emissions. The results reveal that Aggressive and Normal CAVs generally reduce traffic congestion and GHG emissions, with their benefits being more pronounced at higher penetration rates (50% to 100%) and elevated traffic demand levels. On the other hand, Cautious CAVs exhibit an increase in both traffic congestion and GHG emissions. However, results also show deteriorated traffic flow conditions when introducing 25% penetration rates of any type of CAVs. Aggressive CAVs outperform all other driving at improving traffic flow conditions and reducing GHG emissions. The findings of this study highlight the crucial role CAVs can play in enhancing urban traffic performance and mitigating the adverse impact of transportation on the environment. This research advocates for the adoption of effective CAV-related policies by regulatory bodies to optimize traffic flow and reduce GHG emissions. By providing insights into the impact of CAVs, this study aims to inform strategic decision-making and stimulate the development of sustainable urban mobility solutions.

Keywords: Connected and automated vehicles, congestion, GHG emissions, mixed fleet environment, traffic performance, traffic simulations.

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68 Comparison of Cyclone Design Methods for Removal of Fine Particles from Plasma Generated Syngas

Authors: Mareli Hattingh, I. Jaco Van der Walt, Frans B. Waanders

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A waste-to-energy plasma system was designed by Necsa for commercial use to create electricity from unsorted municipal waste. Fly ash particles must be removed from the syngas stream at operating temperatures of 1000 °C and recycled back into the reactor for complete combustion. A 2D2D high efficiency cyclone separator was chosen for this purpose. During this study, two cyclone design methods were explored: The Classic Empirical Method (smaller cyclone) and the Flow Characteristics Method (larger cyclone). These designs were optimized with regard to efficiency, so as to remove at minimum 90% of the fly ash particles of average size 10 μm by 50 μm. Wood was used as feed source at a concentration of 20 g/m3 syngas. The two designs were then compared at room temperature, using Perspex test units and three feed gases of different densities, namely nitrogen, helium and air. System conditions were imitated by adapting the gas feed velocity and particle load for each gas respectively. Helium, the least dense of the three gases, would simulate higher temperatures, whereas air, the densest gas, simulates a lower temperature. The average cyclone efficiencies ranged between 94.96% and 98.37%, reaching up to 99.89% in individual runs. The lowest efficiency attained was 94.00%. Furthermore, the design of the smaller cyclone proved to be more robust, while the larger cyclone demonstrated a stronger correlation between its separation efficiency and the feed temperatures. The larger cyclone can be assumed to achieve slightly higher efficiencies at elevated temperatures. However, both design methods led to good designs. At room temperature, the difference in efficiency between the two cyclones was almost negligible. At higher temperatures, however, these general tendencies are expected to be amplified so that the difference between the two design methods will become more obvious. Though the design specifications were met for both designs, the smaller cyclone is recommended as default particle separator for the plasma system due to its robust nature.

Keywords: Cyclone, design, plasma, renewable energy, solid separation, waste processing.

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67 Isolation and Probiotic Characterization of Arsenic-Resistant Lactic Acid Bacteria for Uptaking Arsenic

Authors: Jatindra N. Bhakta, Kouhei Ohnishi, Yukihiro Munekage, Kozo Iwasaki

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The growing health hazardous impact of arsenic (As) contamination in environment is the impetus of the present investigation. Application of lactic acid bacteria (LAB) for the removal of toxic and heavy metals from water has been reported. This study was performed in order to isolate and characterize the Asresistant LAB from mud and sludge samples for using as efficient As uptaking probiotic. Isolation of As-resistant LAB colonies was performed by spread plate technique using bromocresol purple impregnated-MRS (BP-MRS) agar media provided with As @ 50 μg/ml. Isolated LAB were employed for probiotic characterization process, acid and bile tolerance, lactic acid production, antibacterial activity and antibiotic tolerance assays. After As-resistant and removal characterizations, the LAB were identified using 16S rDNA sequencing. A total of 103 isolates were identified as As-resistant strains of LAB. The survival of 6 strains (As99-1, As100-2, As101-3, As102-4, As105-7, and As112-9) was found after passing through the sequential probiotic characterizations. Resistant pattern pronounced hollow zones at As concentration >2000 μg/ml in As99-1, As100-2, and As101-3 LAB strains, whereas it was found at ~1000 μg/ml in rest 3 strains. Among 6 strains, the As uptake efficiency of As102-4 (0.006 μg/h/mg wet weight of cell) was higher (17 – 209%) compared to remaining LAB. 16S rDNA sequencing data of 3 (As99- 1, As100-2, and As101-3) and 3 (As102-4, As105-7, and As112-9) LAB strains clearly showed 97 to 99% (340 bp) homology to Pediococcus dextrinicus and Pediococcus acidilactici, respectively. Though, there was no correlation between the metal resistant and removal efficiency of LAB examined but identified elevated As removing LAB would probably be a potential As uptaking probiotic agent. Since present experiment concerned with only As removal from pure water, As removal and removal mechanism in natural condition of intestinal milieu should be assessed in future studies.

Keywords: Lactic acid bacteria, As-resistant, characterization, Pediococcus sp., As removal probiotic.

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66 Emotion Regulation: An Exploratory Cross-Sectional Study on the Change and Grow Therapeutic Model

Authors: Eduardo da Silva, Tânia Caetano, Jessica B. Lopes

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Emotion dysregulation has been linked to psychopathology in general and, in particular, to substance abuse and other addiction-related disorders, such as eating disorders, impulsive disorder, and gambling. It has been proposed that a lessening of the difficulties in emotion regulation can have a significant positive impact on the treatment of these disorders. The present study explores the association between the progress in the Change & Grow® therapeutic model (5 stages of treatment), and the decrease in the difficulties related to emotion regulation. The Change & Grow® model has five stages of treatment according to the model’s five principles (Truth, Acceptance, Gratitude, Love and Responsibility) and incorporates different therapeutic approaches such as positive psychology, cognitive and behavioral therapy and third generation therapies. The main objective is to understand the impact of the presented therapeutic model on difficulties in emotion regulation in patients with addiction-related disorders. The exploratory study has a cross-sectional design. Participants were 44 (15 women and 29 men) Portuguese patients in the residential Villa Ramadas International Treatment Centre. The instrument used was the Portuguese version of the Difficulties in Emotion Regulation Scale (DERS), which measures six dimensions of emotion regulation (Strategies, Non-acceptance, Awareness, Impulse, Goals, and Clarity). The mean rank scores for both the DERS total score and the Impulse subscale showed statistically significant differences according to Stage of Treatment/Principles. Furthermore, Stage of Treatment/Principles held a negative correlation with the scores of the Non-acceptance and Impulse subscales, as well as the DERS total score. The results indicate that the Change & Grow® model seems to have an impact in lessening the patient’s difficulties in emotion regulation. The Impulse dimension suffered the greater impact, which supports the well-known relevance of impulse control, or related difficulties, in addiction-related disorders.

Keywords: Addiction, Change & Grow®, emotion regulation, psychopathology.

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65 Impact Assessment of Credit Policy and Medical Credit Facility (MCF) on Nigerian Private Sector Health Market: Evidence from Eight Nigerian States

Authors: Chimaobi V. Okolo, Kenneth A. Okpala, Johnbull S. Ogboi

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A teeming set of doctors that graduated from various universities within and outside Nigeria with the hope of practicing in the country, has their hope shattered because of poor financing, lack of medical equipments and a very weak healthcare systems. Such hydra headed challenges, allows room for quackery which increasingly contributes to the cause of mortality in Nigeria. With a view of reversing the challenges of healthcare delivery and financing in Nigeria, African Health Market for Equity (AHME), a project funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates foundation [With contribution from Department For International Development (DFID)] and currently implemented in three African Countries (Nigeria, Kenya and Ghana) over a Five (5) year period supports the healthcare sector via Medical credit fund (MCF). The study examines the impact of credit policy and medical credit funding on Nigerian health market. Ordinary least square analysis, correlation and granger causality tests were employed to measure the extent to which the Nigerian healthcare market has been influenced. Medical credit fund significantly and positively influenced average monthly turnover of private healthcare providers and Commercial bank’s lending rate had a weak relationship with access to credit/approved loans (13.46%). The programme has so far made 13.91% progress, which is very poor, considering the minimum targeted private health care providers (437.6) and expected number of loan approvals (180.4) for the two years. Medical credit policy in Nigeria should be revised to include private healthcare providers in rural area for more positive impact and increased returns. Good brand advert and sensitization of the programme to stakeholders and health pressure group, and an extension of the programme beyond five years is necessary to better address the issues raised in the study.

Keywords: Credit, health market, medical credit facility, policy.

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