Search results for: service based environment.

Authors: S. Niksarlioglu, F. Kulahci

Abstract:

Earthquakes are natural phenomena that occur with influence of a lot of parameters such as seismic activity, changing in the ground waters' motion, changing in the water-s temperature, etc. On the other hand, the radon gas concentrations in soil vary as nonlinear generally with earthquakes. Continuous measurement of the soil radon gas is very important for determination of characteristic of the seismic activity. The radon gas changes as continuous with strain occurring within the Earth-s surface during an earthquake and effects from the physical and the chemical processes such as soil structure, soil permeability, soil temperature, the barometric pressure, etc. Therefore, at the modeling researches are notsufficient to knowthe concentration ofradon gas. In this research, we determined relationships between radon emissions based on the environmental parameters and earthquakes occurring along the East Anatolian Fault Zone (EAFZ), Turkiye and predicted magnitudes of some earthquakes with the artificial neural network (ANN) model.

Keywords: Earthquake, Modeling, Prediction, Radon.

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Authors: S. Balaji, M. Rajaram, Y. Harold Robinson, E. Golden Julie

Abstract:

Delay Tolerant Networks (DTN) which have sufficient state information include trajectory and contact information, to protect routing efficiency. However, state information is dynamic and hard to obtain without a global and/or long-term collection process. To deal with these problems, the internal social features of each node are introduced in the network to perform the routing process. This type of application is motivated from several human contact networks where people contact each other more frequently if they have more social features in common. Two unique processes were developed for this process; social feature extraction and multipath routing. The routing method then becomes a hypercube–based feature matching process. Furthermore, the effectiveness of multipath routing is evaluated and compared to that of single-path routing.

Keywords: Delay tolerant networks, entropy, human contact networks, hyper cubes, multipath Routing, social features.

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Authors: Martin Böhmer, Agatha Dabrowski, Boris Otto

Abstract:

The trend of digitization significantly changes the role of data for enterprises. Data turn from an enabler to an intangible organizational asset that requires management and qualifies as a tradeable good. The idea of a networked economy has gained momentum in the data domain as collaborative approaches for data management emerge. Traditional organizational knowledge consequently needs to be extended by comprehensive knowledge about data. The knowledge about data is vital for organizations to ensure that data quality requirements are met and data can be effectively utilized and sovereignly governed. As this specific knowledge has been paid little attention to so far by academics, the aim of the research presented in this paper is to conceptualize it by proposing a “data knowledge model”. Relevant model entities have been identified based on a design science research (DSR) approach that iteratively integrates insights of various industry case studies and literature research.

Keywords: Data management, digitization, Industry 4.0, knowledge engineering, metamodel.

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Authors: Sh. Hosseini, M. B. Limooei, M. Hossein Zade, E. Askarnia, Z. Asadi

Abstract:

Manganese steel (Hadfield) is one of the important alloys in industry due to its special properties. High work hardening ability with appropriate toughness and ductility are the properties that caused this alloy to be used in wear resistance parts and in high strength condition. Heat treatment is the main process through which the desired mechanical properties and microstructures are obtained in Hadfield steel. In this study various heat treatment cycles, differing in austenising temperature, time and quenching solution are applied. For this purpose, the same samples of manganese steel was heat treated in 9 different cycles, and then the mechanical properties and microstructures were investigated. Based on the results of the study, the optimum heat treatment cycle was obtained.

Keywords: Manganese steel (Hadfield), heat treatment, austenising temperature, austenising time, quenching solution, mechanical properties.

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Authors: Sepideh Fazeli, Fariba Bahrami

Abstract:

Investigating language acquisition is one of the most challenging problems in the area of studying language. Syllable learning as a level of language acquisition has a considerable significance since it plays an important role in language acquisition. Because of impossibility of studying language acquisition directly with children, especially in its developmental phases, computer models will be useful in examining language acquisition. In this paper a computer model of early language learning for syllable learning is proposed. It is guided by a conceptual model of syllable learning which is named Directions Into Velocities of Articulators model (DIVA). The computer model uses simple associational and reinforcement learning rules within neural network architecture which are inspired by neuroscience. Our simulation results verify the ability of the proposed computer model in producing phonemes during babbling and early speech. Also, it provides a framework for examining the neural basis of language learning and communication disorders.

Keywords: Brain modeling, computer models, language acquisition, reinforcement learning.

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Authors: Darren Zou

Abstract:

Forecasting the stock market is a very challenging task. Various economic indicators such as GDP, exchange rates, interest rates, and unemployment have a substantial impact on the stock market. Time series models are the traditional methods used to predict stock market changes. In this paper, a machine learning method, Bayesian Additive Regression Tree (BART) is used in predicting stock market indexes based on multiple economic indicators. BART can be used to model heterogeneous treatment effects, and thereby works well when models are misspecified. It also has the capability to handle non-linear main effects and multi-way interactions without much input from financial analysts. In this research, BART is proposed to provide a reliable prediction on day-to-day stock market activities. By comparing the analysis results from BART and with time series method, BART can perform well and has better prediction capability than the traditional methods.

Keywords: Bayesian, Forecast, Stock, BART.

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Authors: I. Omerhodzic, S. Avdakovic, A. Nuhanovic, K. Dizdarevic

Abstract:

In this paper, a wavelet-based neural network (WNN) classifier for recognizing EEG signals is implemented and tested under three sets EEG signals (healthy subjects, patients with epilepsy and patients with epileptic syndrome during the seizure). First, the Discrete Wavelet Transform (DWT) with the Multi-Resolution Analysis (MRA) is applied to decompose EEG signal at resolution levels of the components of the EEG signal (δ, θ, α, β and γ) and the Parseval-s theorem are employed to extract the percentage distribution of energy features of the EEG signal at different resolution levels. Second, the neural network (NN) classifies these extracted features to identify the EEGs type according to the percentage distribution of energy features. The performance of the proposed algorithm has been evaluated using in total 300 EEG signals. The results showed that the proposed classifier has the ability of recognizing and classifying EEG signals efficiently.

Keywords: Epilepsy, EEG, Wavelet transform, Energydistribution, Neural Network, Classification.

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Authors: Nor Hafizah S., Salfarina A. G., Intan Hashimah H., Juliana A. W.

Abstract:

Collective action can be an effective means for local development as well as important strategy to enhance livelihoods especially among rural people. This article explores the level of collective action among members of Fishermen-s Wives Group (KUNITA) in Malaysia. KUNITA was established by the Malaysian Fishery Development Authority (LKIM) with an objective to increase the socio-economic status of fishermen-s families. The members who are mostly the wives and daughters of fishermen are strongly encouraged by LKIM to venture into entrepreneurship activities. The objective of this research was to see the level of collective action among members in KUNITA groups in the state of Selangor. The finding shows that high level of collective action among KUNITA members is strongly based on volunteerism. However, the level of cooperation among members in the group is relatively low. The findings present significant challenges for the group in maintaining the sustainability of KUNITA organization.

Keywords: Collective action, entrepreneurship, fishermen' swives group, LKIM.

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Authors: Rita SahaRay, Ganesh Dutta

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In this article, experimental situations are considered where a main effects plan is to be used to study m two-level factors using n runs which are partitioned into b blocks, not necessarily of same size. Assuming the block sizes to be even for all blocks, for the case n ≡ 2 (mod 4), optimal designs are obtained with respect to type 1 and type 2 optimality criteria in the class of designs providing estimation of all main effects orthogonal to the block effects. In practice, such orthogonal estimation of main effects is often a desirable condition. In the wider class of all available m two level even sized blocked main effects plans, where the factors do not occur at high and low levels equally often in each block, E-optimal designs are also characterized. Simple construction methods based on Hadamard matrices and Kronecker product for these optimal designs are presented.

Keywords: Design matrix, Hadamard matrix, Kronecker product, type 1 criteria, type 2 criteria.

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Authors: Beata Wentura-Dudek

Abstract:

In the United States in 2007-2010 before the crisis, the US labour market policy focused mainly on providing residents with unemployment insurance, after the recession this policy changed. The aim of the article was to present quantitative research presenting the most effective labor market instruments contributing to reducing unemployment during the crisis in the USA. The article presents research based on the analysis of available documents and statistical data. The results of the conducted research show that the most effective forms of counteracting unemployment at that time were: direct job creation, job search assistance, subsidized employment, training and employment promotion using new technologies, including social media.

Keywords: United States, financial crisis, unemployment, employment promotion, social media, job creation, training, labour market, employment agencies, lifelong learning, job search assistance, subsidized employment, companies, tax.

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Authors: Dalvir Singh, Somnath Chattopadhyaya

Abstract:

During welding or flame cutting of metals, the prediction of heat affected zone (HAZ) is critical. There is need to develop a simple mathematical model to calculate the temperature variation in HAZ and derivative analysis can be used for this purpose. This study presents analytical solution for heat transfer through conduction in mild steel plate. The homogeneous and nonhomogeneous boundary conditions are single variables. The full field analytical solutions of temperature measurement, subjected to local heating source, are derived first by method of separation of variables followed with the experimental visualization using infrared imaging. Based on the present work, it is suggested that appropriate heat input characteristics controls the temperature distribution in and around HAZ.

Keywords: Conduction Heat Transfer, Heat Affected Zone (HAZ), Infra-Red Imaging, Numerical Method, Orthogonal Function, Plasma Arc Cutting, Separation of Variables, Temperature Measurement.

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Authors: B. Belfuguais, S. Larbi

Abstract:

The work presented in this study is related to an energy system analysis based on passive cooling system for dwellings. It consists to solar chimney energy performances determination versus geometrical and environmental considerations as the size and inlet width conditions of the chimney. Adrar site located in the southern region of Algeria is chosen for this study according to ambient temperature and solar irradiance technical data availability. Obtained results are related to the glazing temperature distributions, the chimney air flow and internal wall temperatures. The air room change per hour (ACH) parameter, the outlet air velocity and mass air flow rate are also determined. It is shown that the chimney width has a significant effect on energy performances compared to its entry size. A good agreement is observed between these results and those obtained by others from the literature.

Keywords: Solar chimney, Energy performances, Passive ventilation, Numerical simulation

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Authors: Phuoc Si Nguyen

Abstract:

Frequency transformation with Pascal matrix equations is a method for transforming an electronic filter (analogue or digital) into another filter. The technique is based on frequency transformation in the s-domain, bilinear z-transform with pre-warping frequency, inverse bilinear transformation and a very useful application of the Pascal’s triangle that simplifies computing and enables calculation by hand when transforming from one filter to another. This paper will introduce two methods to transform a filter into a digital filter: frequency transformation from the s-domain into the z-domain; and frequency transformation in the z-domain. Further, two Pascal matrix equations are derived: an analogue to digital filter Pascal matrix equation and a digital to digital filter Pascal matrix equation. These are used to design a desired digital filter from a given filter.

Keywords: Frequency transformation, Bilinear z-transformation, Pre-warping frequency, Digital filters, Analog filters, Pascal’s triangle.

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Authors: Meng-Hui Chen, Pei-Chann Chang, Wei-Hsiu Huang

Abstract:

Artificial Immune System is adopted as a Heuristic Algorithm to solve the combinatorial problems for decades. Nevertheless, many of these applications took advantage of the benefit for applications but seldom proposed approaches for enhancing the efficiency. In this paper, we continue the previous research to develop a Self-evolving Artificial Immune System II via coordinating the T and B cell in Immune System and built a block-based artificial chromosome for speeding up the computation time and better performance for different complexities of problems. Through the design of Plasma cell and clonal selection which are relative the function of the Immune Response. The Immune Response will help the AIS have the global and local searching ability and preventing trapped in local optima. From the experimental result, the significant performance validates the SEAIS II is effective when solving the permutation flows-hop problems.

Keywords: Artificial Immune System, Clonal Selection, Immune Response, Permutation Flow-shop Scheduling Problems

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Authors: Basak Oguz Yolcular

Abstract:

A large amount of valuable information is available in plain text clinical reports. New techniques and technologies are applied to extract information from these reports. In this study, we developed a domain based software system to transform 600 Otorhinolaryngology discharge notes to a structured form for extracting clinical data from the discharge notes. In order to decrease the system process time discharge notes were transformed into a data table after preprocessing. Several word lists were constituted to identify common section in the discharge notes, including patient history, age, problems, and diagnosis etc. N-gram method was used for discovering terms co-Occurrences within each section. Using this method a dataset of concept candidates has been generated for the validation step, and then Predictive Apriori algorithm for Association Rule Mining (ARM) was applied to validate candidate concepts.

Keywords: association rule mining, otorhinolaryngology, predictive apriori, text mining

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Authors: Tsugunosuke Sakai, Haruya Tamaki, Ryuichi Yoshida, Ryohei Egusa, Etsuji Yamaguchi, Shigenori Inagaki, Fusako Kusunoki, Miki Namatame, Masanori Sugimoto, Hiroshi Mizoguchi

Abstract:

We aim to develop a full-body interaction game that could let children cooperate and interact with other children in small groups. As the first step for our aim, the objective of the full-body interaction game developed in this study is to make interaction between children. The game requires two children to jump together with the same timing. We let children experience the game and answer the questionnaires. The children using several strategies to coordinate the timing of their jumps were observed. These included shouting time, watching each other, and jumping in a constant rhythm as if they were skipping rope. In this manner, we observed the children playing the game while cooperating with each other. The results of a questionnaire to evaluate the proposed interactive game indicate that the jumping game was a very enjoyable experience in which the participants could immerse themselves. Therefore, the game enabled children to experience cooperation with others by using body movements.

Keywords: Children, cooperation, full-body interaction game, kinect sensor.

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Authors: Olofintoye Lawrence Kayode, Olorunniyi Omojola Felix

Abstract:

Schistosomiasis is a vector-borne water-based disease transmitted by Bulinus globosus, causing haematuria in the urine of man, while fascioliasis is a trematode zoonosis infectious transmitted by Lymnaea natalensis causing liver disease in man and animals. Adult Bulinus globosus and Lymnaea natalensis were used for the experiment. Aqueous leaf extract of Ageratum conyzoides and Datura stramonium were prepared into 25, 50, 75, 100, 200 and 400 ppm concentrations. Ten snails of each species were exposed to different concentrations in triplicates, and dechlorinated water was used as control at 24h, 48h, and 72h exposure. The results revealed that 100 ppm of both plants leaves extracts indicated mortality rates between 76.7% and 100% at 24h, 48h, and 72h for both snail species. (P < 0.05). In conclusion, the extract exercised molluscicidal activity to control the snail vector at lethal doses LC50 (66.611-72.021 ppm), CI = 63.083-77.90 ppm and LC90 (92.623-102.350), CI = 87.715-110.12 ppm.

Keywords: Snail, plant leaf, aqueous extract, mortality.

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Authors: L. Mota, O. Frausto

Abstract:

Marine Protected Areas can benefit from nature based tourism, monitoring environmental impacts and also become target for human presence. From more than 3 million tourists visiting Cozumel Island every year, an average of 2,8 million arrive by cruise ship, and 41% are estimated to have motivation for water activities. The destination is relying so much on the tourism activity, that scuba diving and snorkeling in the National Park Reef of Cozumel sustain the major economic activity. In order to achieve the sustainable development indicator designed for regional environmental development, the PNAC offers a training course to tourism providers to access the protected area. This way, the update of the last 5 years of such training is directed to diving staff, boat crew and professionals, making them able to assist in managing the natural resource. Moreover, the case study is an example to be used for raising awareness among tourists visiting protected areas.

Keywords: Education, Marine Protected Area, scuba diving, sustainability, tourism.

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Authors: Tarek Elhasia, Bernd Noche, Lima Zhao

Abstract:

In recent years, sustainable supply chain management (SSCM) has been widely researched in academic domain. However, due to the traditional operational role and the complexity of supply chain management in the cement industry, a relatively small amount of research has been conducted on cement supply chain simulation integrated with sustainability criteria. This paper analyses the cement supply chain operations using the Push-Pull supply chain frameworks, the Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) methodology; and proposal integration approach, proposes three supply chain scenarios based on Make-To-Stock (MTS), Pack-To-Order (PTO) and Grind- To-Order (GTO) strategies. A Discrete-Event Simulation (DES) model of SSCM is constructed using Arena software to implement the three-target scenarios. We conclude with the simulation results that (GTO) is the optimal supply chain strategy that demonstrates the best economic, ecological and social performance in the cement industry.

Keywords: Cement industry, simulation, supply chain management (SCM), sustainability.

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Authors: Hansoo Kim, Seunghak Shin

Abstract:

The differential column shortening in tall buildings can be reduced by improving material and structural characteristics of the structural systems. This paper proposes structural methods to reduce differential column shortening in reinforced concrete tall buildings; connecting columns with rigidly jointed horizontal members, using outriggers, and placing additional reinforcement at the columns. The rigidly connected horizontal members including outriggers reduce the differential shortening between adjacent vertical members. The axial stiffness of columns with greater shortening can be effectively increased by placing additional reinforcement at the columns, thus the differential column shortening can be reduced in the design stage. The optimum distribution of additional reinforcement can be determined by applying a gradient based optimization technique.

Keywords: Column shortening, long-term behavior, optimization, tall building.

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Authors: Alex Elentukh

Abstract:

The paper is based on data collected from final exams administered during five years teaching the graduate course in software engineering. The visualization instrument with four distinct personas has been used to improve effectiveness of each class. The study offers a plethora of clues toward students' behavioral preferences. Diversity among students (professional background, physical proximity) is too significant to assume a single face of a learner. This is particularly true for a body of on-line graduate students in computer science. Conclusions of the study (each learner is unique and each class is unique) are extrapolated to demystify the notion of an 'average software engineer'. An immediate direction for an educator is to assure a course applies to a wide audience of very different individuals. On another hand, a student should be clear about his/her abilities and preferences - to follow the most effective learning path.

Keywords: K.3.2 computer & information science education, learner profiling, adaptive learning, software engineering.

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Authors: R.Narmatha Banu, D.Devaraj

Abstract:

This paper presents a genetic algorithm based approach for solving security constrained optimal power flow problem (SCOPF) including FACTS devices. The optimal location of FACTS devices are identified using an index called overload index and the optimal values are obtained using an enhanced genetic algorithm. The optimal allocation by the proposed method optimizes the investment, taking into account its effects on security in terms of the alleviation of line overloads. The proposed approach has been tested on IEEE-30 bus system to show the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm for solving the SCOPF problem.

Keywords: Optimal Power Flow, Genetic Algorithm, FlexibleAC transmission system (FACTS) devices, Severity Index (SI), Security Enhancement, Thyristor controlled series capacitor (TCSC).

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Authors: Chun-Yuan Huang, Chiao-Yang Cheng, Chun-Yem Huang, Yan-Kuin Su, James Chin-Lung Fang

Abstract:

ZnO nanostructures including nanowires, nanorods, and nanoneedles were successfully deposited on GaAs substrates, respectively, by simple two-step chemical method for the first time. A ZnO seed layer was firstly pre-coated on the O2-plasma treated substrate by sol-gel process, followed by the nucleation of ZnO nanostructures through hydrothermal synthesis. Nanostructures with different average diameter (15-250 nm), length (0.9-1.8 μm), density (0.9-16×109 cm-2) were obtained via adjusting the growth time and concentration of precursors. From the reflectivity spectra, we concluded ordered and taper nanostructures were preferential for photovoltaic applications. ZnO nanoneedles with an average diameter of 106 nm, a moderate length of 2.4 μm, and the density of 7.2×109 cm-2 could be synthesized in the concentration of 0.04 M for 18 h. Integrated with the nanoneedle array, the power conversion efficiency of single junction solar cell was increased from 7.3 to 12.2%, corresponding to a 67% improvement.

Keywords: Anti-reflection, Chemical synthesis, Solar cells, ZnO nanostructures.

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Authors: A. H. Elkholy, A. H. Falah

Abstract:

A new approach has been developed to estimate the load share and distribution of worm gear drives, and to calculate the instantaneous tooth meshing stiffness. In the approach, the worm gear drive was modelled as a series of spur gear slices, and each slice was analyzed separately using the well-established formulae of spur gear loading and stresses. By combining the results obtained for all slices, the entire envolute worm gear set loading and stressing was obtained. The geometric modelling method presented allows tooth elastic deformation and tooth root stresses of worm gear drives under different load conditions to be investigated. Based on the slicing method introduced in this study, the instantaneous meshing stiffness and load share are obtained. In comparison with existing methods, this approach has both good analysis accuracy and less computing time.

Keywords: Gear, load/stress distribution, worm, wheel, tooth stiffness, contact line.

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Authors: Rabah Haoui

Abstract:

This work presents a numerical simulation of the interaction of an incident shock wave propagates from the left to the right with a cone placed in a tube at shock. The Mathematical model is based on a non stationary, viscous and axisymmetric flow. The Discretization of the Navier-stokes equations is carried out by the finite volume method in the integral form along with the Flux Vector Splitting method of Van Leer. Here, adequate combination of time stepping parameter, CFL coefficient and mesh size level is selected to ensure numerical convergence. The numerical simulation considers a shock tube filled with air. The incident shock wave propagates to the right with a determined Mach number and crosses the cone by leaving behind it a stationary detached shock wave in front of the nose cone. This type of interaction is observed according to the time of flow.

Keywords: Supersonic flow, viscous flow, finite volume, cone body

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Authors: Musa H. Arslan, Murat Ceylan, Tayfun Koyuncu

Abstract:

In this study, an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) analytical method has been developed for analyzing earthquake performances of the Reinforced Concrete (RC) buildings. 66 RC buildings with four to ten storeys were subjected to performance analysis according to the parameters which are the existing material, loading and geometrical characteristics of the buildings. The selected parameters have been thought to be effective on the performance of RC buildings. In the performance analyses stage of the study, level of performance possible to be shown by these buildings in case of an earthquake was determined on the basis of the 4-grade performance levels specified in Turkish Earthquake Code-2007 (TEC-2007). After obtaining the 4-grade performance level, selected 23 parameters of each building have been matched with the performance level. In this stage, ANN-based fast evaluation algorithm mentioned above made an economic and rapid evaluation of four to ten storey RC buildings. According to the study, the prediction accuracy of ANN has been found about 74%.

Keywords: Artificial neural network, earthquake, performance, reinforced concrete.

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Authors: M. Haj Seyed Hadi, M. Taghi Darzi, Z. Ghandeharialavijeh, GH. Riazi

Abstract:

The main objective of this study was to determine the effects of vermicompost and amino acids on the qualitative and quantitative yield of chamomile. The experiment was conducted during the growing season of 2010 at the Alborz Medical Research Center. The Treatment groups consisted of vermicompost (0, 5, 10, 15 and 20 tons/ha) and the sprays of amino acids (budding stag, flowering stage, and budding + flowering stage). The experimental design was a factorial experiment based on Randomized Complete Block Design (RCBD) with three replications. The present results have shown that the highest plant height, flower head diameter, fresh and dry flower yield and significant essential oil content were obtained by using 20- ton vermicompost per hectare. Effects of amino acids were similar to those seen in vermicompost treatment and all measured traits were seen to be significant after the spray of amino acids at the budding + flowering stage).

Keywords: Vermicompost, amino acids, chamomile, yield

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Authors: D. Uma Devi, P. Seetha Ramaiah

Abstract:

Voting algorithms are extensively used to make decisions in fault tolerant systems where each redundant module gives inconsistent outputs. Popular voting algorithms include majority voting, weighted voting, and inexact majority voters. Each of these techniques suffers from scenarios where agreements do not exist for the given voter inputs. This has been successfully overcome in literature using fuzzy theory. Our previous work concentrated on a neuro-fuzzy algorithm where training using the neuro system substantially improved the prediction result of the voting system. Weight training of Neural Network is sub-optimal. This study proposes to optimize the weights of the Neural Network using Artificial Bee Colony algorithm. Experimental results show the proposed system improves the decision making of the voting algorithms.

Keywords: Voting algorithms, Fault tolerance, Fault masking, Neuro-Fuzzy System (NFS), Artificial Bee Colony (ABC)

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Authors: K. Kamalanand, S. Srinivasan

Abstract:

Analysis of blood vessel mechanics in normal and diseased conditions is essential for disease research, medical device design and treatment planning. In this work, 3D finite element models of normal vessel and atherosclerotic vessel with 50% plaque deposition were developed. The developed models were meshed using finite number of tetrahedral elements. The developed models were simulated using actual blood pressure signals. Based on the transient analysis performed on the developed models, the parameters such as total displacement, strain energy density and entropy per unit volume were obtained. Further, the obtained parameters were used to develop artificial neural network models for analyzing normal and atherosclerotic blood vessels. In this paper, the objectives of the study, methodology and significant observations are presented.

Keywords: Blood vessel, atherosclerosis, finite element model, artificial neural networks

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Authors: Karim Hamidi Machekposhti, Hossein Sedghi, Abdolrasoul Telvari, Hossein Babazadeh

Abstract:

Rainfall and runoff phenomenon is a chaotic and complex outcome of nature which requires sophisticated modelling and simulation methods for explanation and use. Time Series modelling allows runoff data analysis and can be used as forecasting tool. In the paper attempt is made to model river runoff data and predict the future behavioural pattern of river based on annual past observations of annual river runoff. The river runoff analysis and predict are done using ARIMA model. For evaluating the efficiency of prediction to hydrological events such as rainfall, runoff and etc., we use the statistical formulae applicable. The good agreement between predicted and observation river runoff coefficient of determination (R²) display that the ARIMA (4,1,1) is the suitable model for predicting Karkheh River runoff at Iran.

Keywords: Time series modelling, ARIMA model, River runoff, Karkheh River, CLS method.

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