Search results for: Mathematical Model
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 7795

Search results for: Mathematical Model

6865 A New Model for Production Forecasting in ERP

Authors: S. F. Wong, W. I. Ho, B. Lin, Q. Huang

Abstract:

ERP has been used in many enterprises for management, the accuracy of the production forecasting module is vital to the decision making of the enterprise, and the profit is affected directly. Therefore, enhancing the accuracy of the production forecasting module can also increase the efficiency and profitability. To deal with a lot of data, a suitable, reliable and accurate statistics model is necessary. LSSVM and Grey System are two main models to be studied in this paper, and a case study is used to demonstrate how the combination model is effective to the result of forecasting.

Keywords: ERP, Grey System, LSSVM, production forecasting.

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6864 Coupled Dynamics in Host-Guest Complex Systems Duplicates Emergent Behavior in the Brain

Authors: Sergio Pissanetzky

Abstract:

The ability of the brain to organize information and generate the functional structures we use to act, think and communicate, is a common and easily observable natural phenomenon. In object-oriented analysis, these structures are represented by objects. Objects have been extensively studied and documented, but the process that creates them is not understood. In this work, a new class of discrete, deterministic, dissipative, host-guest dynamical systems is introduced. The new systems have extraordinary self-organizing properties. They can host information representing other physical systems and generate the same functional structures as the brain does. A simple mathematical model is proposed. The new systems are easy to simulate by computer, and measurements needed to confirm the assumptions are abundant and readily available. Experimental results presented here confirm the findings. Applications are many, but among the most immediate are object-oriented engineering, image and voice recognition, search engines, and Neuroscience.

Keywords: AI, artificial intelligence, complex system, object oriented, OO, refactoring.

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6863 Designing Transcutaneous Inductive Powering Links for Implanted Micro-System Device

Authors: Saad Mutashar Abbas, M. A. Hannan, S. A. Samad, A. Hussain

Abstract:

This paper presented a proposed design for transcutaneous inductive powering links. The design used to transfer power and data to the implanted devices such as implanted Microsystems to stimulate and monitoring the nerves and muscles. The system operated with low band frequency 13.56 MHZ according to industrial- scientific – medical (ISM) band to avoid the tissue heating. For external part, the modulation index is 13 % and the modulation rate 7.3% with data rate 1 Mbit/s assuming Tbit=1us. The system has been designed using 0.35-μm fabricated CMOS technology. The mathematical model is given and the design is simulated using OrCAD P Spice 16.2 software tool and for real-time simulation the electronic workbench MULISIM 11 has been used. The novel circular plane (pancake) coils was simulated using ANSOFT- HFss software.

Keywords: Implanted devices, ASK techniques, Class-E power amplifier, Inductive powering and low-frequency ISM band.

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6862 Validation of the Linear Trend Estimation Technique for Prediction of Average Water and Sewerage Charge Rate Prices in the Czech Republic

Authors: Aneta Oblouková, Eva Vítková

Abstract:

The article deals with the issue of water and sewerage charge rate prices in the Czech Republic. The research is specifically focused on the analysis of the development of the average prices of water and sewerage charge rate in the Czech Republic in 1994-2021 and on the validation of the chosen methodology relevant for the prediction of the development of the average prices of water and sewerage charge rate in the Czech Republic. The research is based on data collection. The data for this research were obtained from the Czech Statistical Office. The aim of the paper is to validate the relevance of the mathematical linear trend estimate technique for the calculation of the predicted average prices of water and sewerage charge rates. The real values of the average prices of water and sewerage charge rates in the Czech Republic in 1994-2018 were obtained from the Czech Statistical Office and were converted into a mathematical equation. The same type of real data was obtained from the Czech Statistical Office for 2019-2021. Prediction of the average prices of water and sewerage charge rates in the Czech Republic in 2019-2021 was also calculated using a chosen method – a linear trend estimation technique. The values obtained from the Czech Statistical Office and the values calculated using the chosen methodology were subsequently compared. The research result is a validation of the chosen mathematical technique to be a suitable technique for this research.

Keywords: Czech Republic, linear trend estimation, price prediction, water and sewerage charge rate.

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6861 Pure and Mixed Nash Equilibria Domain of a Discrete Game Model with Dichotomous Strategy Space

Authors: A. S. Mousa, F. Shoman

Abstract:

We present a discrete game theoretical model with homogeneous individuals who make simultaneous decisions. In this model the strategy space of all individuals is a discrete and dichotomous set which consists of two strategies. We fully characterize the coherent, split and mixed strategies that form Nash equilibria and we determine the corresponding Nash domains for all individuals. We find all strategic thresholds in which individuals can change their mind if small perturbations in the parameters of the model occurs.

Keywords: Coherent strategy, split strategy, pure strategy, mixed strategy, Nash Equilibrium, game theory.

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6860 A Stochastic Analytic Hierarchy Process Based Weighting Model for Sustainability Measurement in an Organization

Authors: Faramarz Khosravi, Gokhan Izbirak

Abstract:

A weighted statistical stochastic based Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) model for modeling the potential barriers and enablers of sustainability for measuring and assessing the sustainability level is proposed. For context-dependent potential barriers and enablers, the proposed model takes the basis of the properties of the variables describing the sustainability functions and was developed into a realistic analytical model for the sustainable behavior of an organization. This thus serves as a means for measuring the sustainability of the organization. The main focus of this paper was the application of the AHP tool in a statistically-based model for measuring sustainability. Hence a strong weighted stochastic AHP based procedure was achieved. A case study scenario of a widely reported major Canadian electric utility was adopted to demonstrate the applicability of the developed model and comparatively examined its results with those of an equal-weighted model method. Variations in the sustainability of a company, as fluctuations, were figured out during the time. In the results obtained, sustainability index for successive years changed form 73.12%, 79.02%, 74.31%, 76.65%, 80.49%, 79.81%, 79.83% to more exact values 73.32%, 77.72%, 76.76%, 79.41%, 81.93%, 79.72%, and 80,45% according to priorities of factors that have found by expert views, respectively. By obtaining relatively necessary informative measurement indicators, the model can practically and effectively evaluate the sustainability extent of any organization and also to determine fluctuations in the organization over time.

Keywords: AHP, sustainability fluctuation, environmental indicators, performance measurement, environmental sustainability.

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6859 Stability Analysis of a Human-Mosquito Model of Malaria with Infective Immigrants

Authors: Nisha Budhwar, Sunita Daniel

Abstract:

In this paper, we analyse the stability of the SEIR model of malaria with infective immigrants which was recently formulated by the authors. The model consists of an SEIR model for the human population and SI Model for the mosquitoes. Susceptible humans become infected after they are bitten by infectious mosquitoes and move on to the Exposed, Infected and Recovered classes respectively. The susceptible mosquito becomes infected after biting an infected person and remains infected till death. We calculate the reproduction number R0 using the next generation method and then discuss about the stability of the equilibrium points. We use the Lyapunov function to show the global stability of the equilibrium points.

Keywords: Susceptible, exposed, infective, recovered, infective immigrants, reproduction number, Lyapunov function, equilibrium points, global stability.

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6858 Appling Eyring-s Accelerated Life Testing Model to “Times to Breakdown“ of Insulating Fluid: A Combined Approach of an Accelerated and a Sequential Life Testing

Authors: D. I. De Souza, D. R. Fonseca, D. Kipper

Abstract:

In this paper, the test purpose will be to assess whether or not the accelerated model proposed by Eyring will be able to translate results for the shape and scale parameters of an underlying Weibull model, obtained under two accelerating using conditions, to expected normal using condition results for these parameters. The product being analyzed is a new type of insulate fluid, and the accelerating factor is the voltage stresses applied to the fluid at two different levels (30KV and 40KV). The normal operating voltage is 25KV. In this case, it was possible to test the insulate fluid at normal voltage using condition. Both results for the two parameters of the Weibull model, obtained under normal using condition and translated from accelerated using conditions to normal conditions, will be compared to each other to assess the accuracy of the Eyring model when the accelerating factor is only the voltage stress.

Keywords: Eyring Accelerated Model, Sequential Life Testing, Two-Parameter Weibull Distribution, Voltage Stresses.

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6857 Port Governance in Santos, Brazil: A Qualitative Approach

Authors: Guilherme B. B. Vieira, Rafael M. da Silva, Eliana T. P. Senna, Luiz A. S. Senna, Francisco J. Kliemann Neto

Abstract:

Given the importance of ports as links in the global supply chains and because they are key elements to induce competitiveness in their hinterlands, the number of studies devoted to port governance, management and operations has increased in the last decades. Some of these studies address the port governance model as an element to improve coordination among the actors of the portlogistics chain and to generate a better port performance. In this context, the present study analyzes the governance of Port of Santos through individual interviews with port managers, based on a conceptual model that considers the key dimensions associated with port governance. The results reinforce the usefulness of the applied model and highlight some existing improvement opportunities in the port studied.

Keywords: Port Governance, Model, Port of Santos, Managers’ Perception.

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6856 Numerical Simulation of Progressive Collapse for a Reinforced Concrete Building

Authors: Han-Soo Kim, Jae-Gyun Ahn, Hyo-Seung Ahn

Abstract:

Though nonlinear dynamic analysis using a specialized hydro-code such as AUTODYN is accurate and useful tool for progressive collapse assessment of a multi-story building subjected to blast load, it takes too much time to be applied to a practical simulation of progressive collapse of a tall building. In this paper, blast analysis of a RC frame structure using a simplified model with Reinforcement Contact technique provided in Ansys Workbench was introduced and investigated on its accuracy. Even though the simplified model has a fraction of elements of the detailed model, the simplified model with this modeling technique shows similar structural behavior under the blast load to the detailed model. The proposed modeling method can be effectively applied to blast loading progressive collapse analysis of a RC frame structure.

Keywords: Autodyn, Blast Load, Progressive Collapse, Reinforcement Contact.

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6855 A New SIR-based Model for Influenza Epidemic

Authors: Kang-Hung Yang, Jin-Yuan Hsu

Abstract:

In recent years, several severe large-scale influenza outbreaks happened in many countries, such as SARS in 2005 or H1N1 in 2009. Those influenza Epidemics have greatly impacts not only on people-s life and health, but medical systems in different countries. Although severe diseases are more experienced, they are not fully controlled. Governments have different policies to control the spreads of diseases. However, those policies have both positive and negative social or economical influence on people and society. Therefore, it is necessary and essential to develop an appropriate model for evaluations of policies. Consequently, a proper measure can be implemented to confront the diseases. The main goal of this study is to develop a SIR-based model for the further evaluations of the candidate policies during the influenza outbreaks.

Keywords: SIR, influenza, systems dynamic model, H1N1

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6854 Computing Transition Intensity Using Time-Homogeneous Markov Jump Process: Case of South African HIV/AIDS Disposition

Authors: A. Bayaga

Abstract:

This research provides a technical account of estimating Transition Probability using Time-homogeneous Markov Jump Process applying by South African HIV/AIDS data from the Statistics South Africa. It employs Maximum Likelihood Estimator (MLE) model to explore the possible influence of Transition Probability of mortality cases in which case the data was based on actual Statistics South Africa. This was conducted via an integrated demographic and epidemiological model of South African HIV/AIDS epidemic. The model was fitted to age-specific HIV prevalence data and recorded death data using MLE model. Though the previous model results suggest HIV in South Africa has declined and AIDS mortality rates have declined since 2002 – 2013, in contrast, our results differ evidently with the generally accepted HIV models (Spectrum/EPP and ASSA2008) in South Africa. However, there is the need for supplementary research to be conducted to enhance the demographic parameters in the model and as well apply it to each of the nine (9) provinces of South Africa.

Keywords: AIDS mortality rates, Epidemiological model, Time-homogeneous Markov Jump Process, Transition Probability, Statistics South Africa.

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6853 Artificial Visual Percepts for Image Understanding

Authors: Jeewanee Bamunusinghe, Damminda Alahakoon

Abstract:

Visual inputs are one of the key sources from which humans perceive the environment and 'understand' what is happening. Artificial systems perceive the visual inputs as digital images. The images need to be processed and analysed. Within the human brain, processing of visual inputs and subsequent development of perception is one of its major functionalities. In this paper we present part of our research project, which aims at the development of an artificial model for visual perception (or 'understanding') based on the human perceptive and cognitive systems. We propose a new model for perception from visual inputs and a way of understaning or interpreting images using the model. We demonstrate the implementation and use of the model with a real image data set.

Keywords: Image understanding, percept, visual perception.

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6852 A Study on Metal Hexagonal Honeycomb Crushing Under Quasi-Static Loading

Authors: M. Zarei Mahmoudabadi, M. Sadighi

Abstract:

In the study of honeycomb crushing under quasistatic loading, two parameters are important, the mean crushing stress and the wavelength of the folding mode. The previous theoretical models did not consider the true cylindrical curvature effects and the flow stress in the folding mode of honeycomb material. The present paper introduces a modification on Wierzbicki-s model based on considering two above mentioned parameters in estimating the mean crushing stress and the wavelength through implementation of the energy method. Comparison of the results obtained by the new model and Wierzbicki-s model with existing experimental data shows better prediction by the model presented in this paper.

Keywords: Crush strength, Flow stress, Honeycomb, Quasistatic load.

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6851 A Business Model Design Process for Social Enterprises: The Critical Role of the Environment

Authors: Hadia Abdel Aziz, Raghda El Ebrashi

Abstract:

Business models are shaped by their design space or the environment they are designed to be implemented in. The rapidly changing economic, technological, political, regulatory and market external environment severely affects business logic. This is particularly true for social enterprises whose core mission is to transform their environments, and thus, their whole business logic revolves around the interchange between the enterprise and the environment. The context in which social business operates imposes different business design constraints while at the same time, open up new design opportunities. It is also affected to a great extent by the impact that successful enterprises generate; a continuous loop of interaction that needs to be managed through a dynamic capability in order to generate a lasting powerful impact. This conceptual research synthesizes and analyzes literature on social enterprise, social enterprise business models, business model innovation, business model design, and the open system view theory to propose a new business model design process for social enterprises that takes into account the critical role of environmental factors. This process would help the social enterprise develop a dynamic capability that ensures the alignment of its business model to its environmental context, thus, maximizing its probability of success.

Keywords: Social enterprise, business model, business model design.

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6850 Subcritical Water Extraction of Mannitol from Olive Leaves

Authors: S. M. Ghoreishi, R. Gholami Shahrestani, S. H. Ghaziaskar

Abstract:

Subcritical water extraction was investigated as a novel and alternative technology in the food and pharmaceutical industry for the separation of Mannitol from olive leaves and its results was compared with those of Soxhlet extraction. The effects of temperature, pressure, and flow rate of water and also momentum and mass transfer dimensionless variables such as Reynolds and Peclet Numbers on extraction yield and equilibrium partition coefficient were investigated. The 30-110 bars, 60-150°C, and flow rates of 0.2-2 mL/min were the water operating conditions. The results revealed that the highest Mannitol yield was obtained at 100°C and 50 bars. However, extraction of Mannitol was not influenced by the variations of flow rate. The mathematical modeling of experimental measurements was also investigated and the model is capable of predicting the experimental measurements very well. In addition, the results indicated higher extraction yield for the subcritical water extraction in contrast to Soxhlet method.

Keywords: Extraction, Mannitol, Modeling, Olive leaves, Soxhlet extraction, Subcritical water.

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6849 Modeling ICT Adoption Factors for the Preservation of Indigenous Knowledge

Authors: K.M. Ngcobo, S.D. Eyono Obono

Abstract:

Indigenous Knowledge (IK) has many social and economic benefits. However, IK is at the risk of extinction due to the difficulties to preserve it as most of the IK largely remains undocumented. This study aims to design a model of the factors affecting the adoption of Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs) for the preservation of IK. The proposed model is based on theoretical frameworks on ICT adoption. It was designed following a literature review of ICT adoption theories for households, and of the factors affecting ICT adoption for IK. The theory that fitted to the best all factors was then chosen as the basis for the proposed model. This study found that the Model of Adoption of Technology in Households (MATH) is the most suitable theoretical framework for modeling ICT adoption factors for the preservation of IK.

Keywords: Adoption factors, ICT adoption theories, Indigenous knowledge.

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6848 Survey to Assess the Feasibility of Executing the Web-Based Collaboration Process Using WBCS

Authors: Mohamed A. Sullabi

Abstract:

The importance of the formal specification in the software life cycle is barely concealing to anyone. Formal specifications use mathematical notation to describe the properties of information system precisely, without unduly constraining the way in how these properties are achieved. Having a correct and quality software specification is not easy task. This study concerns with how a group of rectifiers can communicate with each other and work to prepare and produce a correct formal software specification. WBCS has been implemented based mainly in the proposed supported cooperative work model and a survey conducted on the existing Webbased collaborative writing tools. This paper aims to assess the feasibility of executing the web-based collaboration process using WBCS. The purpose of conducting this test is to test the system as a whole for functionality and fitness for use based on the evaluation test plan.

Keywords: Formal methods, Formal specifications, collaborative writing, Usability testing.

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6847 Design and Analysis of 1.4 MW Hybrid Saps System for Rural Electrification in Off-Grid Applications

Authors: Arpan Dwivedi, Yogesh Pahariya

Abstract:

In this paper, optimal design of hybrid standalone power supply system (SAPS) is done for off grid applications in remote areas where transmission of power is difficult. The hybrid SAPS system uses two primary energy sources, wind and solar, and in addition to these diesel generator is also connected to meet the load demand in case of failure of wind and solar system. This paper presents mathematical modeling of 1.4 MW hybrid SAPS system for rural electrification. This paper firstly focuses on mathematical modeling of PV module connected in a string, secondly focuses on modeling of permanent magnet wind turbine generator (PMWTG). The hybrid controller is also designed for selection of power from the source available as per the load demand. The power output of hybrid SAPS system is analyzed for meeting load demands at urban as well as for rural areas.

Keywords: SAPS, DG, PMWTG, rural area, off grid, PV module.

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6846 Advanced Model for Calculation of the Neutral Axis Shifting and the Wall Thickness Distribution in Rotary Draw Bending Processes

Authors: B. Engel, H. Hassan

Abstract:

Rotary draw bending is a method which is being used in tube forming. In the tube bending process, the neutral axis moves towards the inner arc and the wall thickness distribution changes for tube’s cross section. Thinning takes place in the outer arc of the tube (extrados) due to the stretching of the material, whereas thickening occurs in the inner arc of the tube (intrados) due to the comparison of the material. The calculations of the wall thickness distribution, neutral axis shifting, and strain distribution have not been accurate enough, so far. The previous model (the geometrical model) describes the neutral axis shifting and wall thickness distribution. The geometrical of the tube, bending radius and bending angle are considered in the geometrical model, while the influence of the material properties of the tube forming are ignored. The advanced model is a modification of the previous model using material properties that depends on the correction factor. The correction factor is a purely empirically determined factor. The advanced model was compared with the Finite element simulation (FE simulation) using a different bending factor (Bf =bending radius/ diameter of the tube), wall thickness (Wf = diameter of the tube/ wall thickness), and material properties (strain hardening exponent). Finite element model of rotary draw bending has been performed in PAM-TUBE program (version: 2012). Results from the advanced model resemble the FE simulation and the experimental test.

Keywords: Rotary draw bending, material properties, neutral axis shifting, wall thickness distribution.

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6845 Modeling Residential Space Heating Energy for Romania

Authors: Ion Smeureanu, Adriana Reveiu, Marian Dardala, Titus Felix Furtuna, Roman Kanala

Abstract:

This paper proposes a linear model for optimizing domestic energy consumption in Romania. The particularity of the model is that it is putting in competition both tangible technologies and thermal insulation projects with different financing modes. The model is optimizing the energy system by minimizing the global discounted cost in household sector, by integrating residential lighting, space heating, hot water, combined space heating – hot water, as well as space cooling, in a monolithic model. Another demand sector included is the passenger transport. This paper focuses on space heating part, analyzing technical and economic issues related to investment decisions to envelope and insulate buildings, in order to minimize energy consumption.

Keywords: Consumer behavior, energy modelling, Open Source Energy Modeling System (OSeMOSYS), MARKAL/TIMES Romanian energy model.

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6844 Phenomenological and Semi-microscopic Analysis for Elastic Scattering of Protons on 6,7Li

Authors: A. Amar, N. Burtebayev, Sh. Hamada, Kerimkulov Zhambul, N. Amangieldy

Abstract:

Analysis of the elastic scattering of protons on 6,7Li nuclei has been done in the framework of the optical model at the beam energies up to 50 MeV. Differential cross sections for the 6,7Li + p scattering were measured over the proton laboratory–energy range from 400 to 1050 keV. The elastic scattering of 6,7Li+p data at different proton incident energies have been analyzed using singlefolding model. In each case the real potential obtained from the folding model was supplemented by a phenomenological imaginary potential, and during the fitting process the real potential was normalized and the imaginary potential optimized. Normalization factor NR is calculated in the range between 0.70 and 0.84.

Keywords: scattering of protons on 6, 7Li nuclei, Esis88 Codesingle-folding model, phenomenological.

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6843 A New Hybrid Model with Passive Congregation for Stock Market Indices Prediction

Authors: Tarek Aboueldahab

Abstract:

In this paper, we propose a new hybrid learning model for stock market indices prediction by adding a passive congregation term to the standard hybrid model comprising Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) with Genetic Algorithm (GA) operators in training Neural Networks (NN). This new passive congregation term is based on the cooperation between different particles in determining new positions rather than depending on the particles selfish thinking without considering other particles positions, thus it enables PSO to perform both the local and global search instead of only doing the local search. Experiment study carried out on the most famous European stock market indices in both long term and short term prediction shows significantly the influence of the passive congregation term in improving the prediction accuracy compared to standard hybrid model.

Keywords: Global Search, Hybrid Model, Passive Congregation, Stock Market Prediction.

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6842 Definition and Implementation of a Simulation Model for the Physical Layer and the Radio Channel in Dedicated Short Range Communication Systems

Authors: Mounir Frikha, Michael Meincke, Semia Barouni

Abstract:

This paper proposes a vehicle-to-vehicle propagation model implemented with SDL. To estimate the channel characteristics for Inter-Vehicle communication, we first define a predicted propagation pathloss between the moving vehicles under three typical scenarios. A Ray-tracing method is used for the simple gamma model performance.

Keywords: Inter-vehicle communication (IVC), propagationmodel, road traffic, road vicinity, pathloss.

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6841 Hybrid Quasi-Steady Thermal Lattice Boltzmann Model for Studying the Behavior of Oil in Water Emulsions Used in Machining Tool Cooling and Lubrication

Authors: W. Hasan, H. Farhat, A. Alhilo, L. Tamimi

Abstract:

Oil in water (O/W) emulsions are utilized extensively for cooling and lubricating cutting tools during parts machining. A robust Lattice Boltzmann (LBM) thermal-surfactants model, which provides a useful platform for exploring complex emulsions’ characteristics under variety of flow conditions, is used here for the study of the fluid behavior during conventional tools cooling. The transient thermal capabilities of the model are employed for simulating the effects of the flow conditions of O/W emulsions on the cooling of cutting tools. The model results show that the temperature outcome is slightly affected by reversing the direction of upper plate (workpiece). On the other hand, an important increase in effective viscosity is seen which supports better lubrication during the work.

Keywords: Hybrid lattice Boltzmann method, Gunstensen model, thermal, surfactant-covered droplet, Marangoni stress.

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6840 The Water Quantity and Quality for Conjunctive Use in Saline Soil Problem Area

Authors: P. Mekpruksawong, S. Chuenchooklin, T. Ichikawa

Abstract:

The aim of research project is to evaluate quantity and quality for conjunctive use of groundwater and surface water in lower in the Lower Nam Kam area, Thailand, even though there have been hints of saline soil and water. The mathematical model named WUSMO and MIKE Basin were applied for the calculation of crop water utilization. Results of the study showed that, in irrigation command area, water consumption rely on various sources; rain water 21.56%, irrigation water 78.29%, groundwater and some small surface storage 0.15%. Meanwhile, for non-irrigation command area, water consumption depends on the Nam Kam and Nambang stream 42%, rain water 36.75% and groundwater and some small surface storage 19.18%. Samples of surface water and groundwater were collected for 2 seasons. The criterion was determined for the assessment of suitable water for irrigation. It was found that this area has very limited sources of suitable water for irrigation.

Keywords: Conjunctive use, Groundwater, Surface water, Saline soil.

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6839 Modeling Prices of Electricity Futures at EEX

Authors: Robest Flasza, Milan Rippel, Jan Solc

Abstract:

The main aim of this paper is to develop and calibrate an econometric model for modeling prices of long term electricity futures contracts. The calibration of our model is performed on data from EEX AG allowing us to capture the specific features of German electricity market. The data sample contains several structural breaks which have to be taken into account for modeling. We model the data with an ARIMAX model which reveals high correlation between the price of electricity futures contracts and prices of LT futures contracts of fuels (namely coal, natural gas and crude oil). Besides this, also a share price index of representative electricity companies traded on Xetra, spread between 10Y and 1Y German bonds and exchange rate between EUR and USD appeared to have significant explanatory power over these futures contracts on EEX.

Keywords: electricity futures, EEX, ARIMAX, emissionallowances

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6838 Parametric Studies of Wood Pyrolysis Particles

Authors: W. Afef, A. Mohamed Ammar, G. Kamel, O. Ahmed

Abstract:

In the present study, a numerical approach to describe the pyrolysis of a single solid particle of wood is used to study the influence of various conditions such as particle size, heat transfer coefficient, reactor temperature and heating rate. The influence of these parameters in the change of the duration of the pyrolysis cycle was studied. Mathematical modeling was employed to simulate the heat, mass transfer, and kinetic processes inside the reactor. The evolutions of the mass loss as well as the evolution of temperature inside the thick piece are investigated numerically. The elaborated model was also employed to study the effect of the reactor temperature and the rate of heating on the change of the temperature and the local loss of the mass inside the piece of wood. The obtained results are in good agreement with the experimental data available in the literature.

Keywords: Wood, Pyrolysis, Modeling, Convective heat transfer, Kinetic.

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6837 The Application of Adaptive Tabu Search Algorithm and Averaging Model to the Optimal Controller Design of Buck Converters

Authors: T. Sopapirm, K-N. Areerak, K-L. Areerak, A. Srikaew

Abstract:

The paper presents the applications of artificial intelligence technique called adaptive tabu search to design the controller of a buck converter. The averaging model derived from the DQ and generalized state-space averaging methods is applied to simulate the system during a searching process. The simulations using such averaging model require the faster computational time compared with that of the full topology model from the software packages. The reported model is suitable for the work in the paper in which the repeating calculation is needed for searching the best solution. The results will show that the proposed design technique can provide the better output waveforms compared with those designed from the classical method.

Keywords: Buck converter, adaptive tabu search, DQ method, generalized state-space averaging method, modeling and simulation

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6836 MABENA Strategic Management Model for Local Companies

Authors: Kaveh Mohammad Cyrus, Shadi Sanagoo

Abstract:

MABENA model is a complementary model in comparison with traditional models such as HCMS, CMS and etc. New factors, which have effects on preparation of strategic plans and their sequential order in MABENA model is the platform of presented road map in this paper.Study review shows, factors such as emerging new critical success factors for strategic planning, improvement of international strategic models, increasing the maturity of companies and emerging new needs leading to design a new model which can be responsible for new critical factors and solve the limitations of previous strategic management models. Preparation of strategic planning need more factors than introduced in traditional models. The needed factors includes determining future Critical Success Factors and competencies, defining key processes, determining the maturity of the processes, considering all aspects of the external environment etc. Description of aforementioned requirements, the outcomes and their order is developing and presenting the MABENA model-s road map in this paper. This study presents a road map for strategic planning of the Iranian organizations.

Keywords: Competitive Advantage, Process Maturity, StrategicPlanning, Strategic potential

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