Search results for: strength prediction models.
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 4421

Search results for: strength prediction models.

3551 Combining the Deep Neural Network with the K-Means for Traffic Accident Prediction

Authors: Celso L. Fernando, Toshio Yoshii, Takahiro Tsubota

Abstract:

Understanding the causes of a road accident and predicting their occurrence is key to prevent deaths and serious injuries from road accident events. Traditional statistical methods such as the Poisson and the Logistics regressions have been used to find the association of the traffic environmental factors with the accident occurred; recently, an artificial neural network, ANN, a computational technique that learns from historical data to make a more accurate prediction, has emerged. Although the ability to make accurate predictions, the ANN has difficulty dealing with highly unbalanced attribute patterns distribution in the training dataset; in such circumstances, the ANN treats the minority group as noise. However, in the real world data, the minority group is often the group of interest; e.g., in the road traffic accident data, the events of the accident are the group of interest. This study proposes a combination of the k-means with the ANN to improve the predictive ability of the neural network model by alleviating the effect of the unbalanced distribution of the attribute patterns in the training dataset. The results show that the proposed method improves the ability of the neural network to make a prediction on a highly unbalanced distributed attribute patterns dataset; however, on an even distributed attribute patterns dataset, the proposed method performs almost like a standard neural network. 

Keywords: Accident risks estimation, artificial neural network, deep learning, K-mean, road safety.

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3550 Using Micropiles to Improve the Anzali's Saturated Loose Silty Sand

Authors: S. A. Naeini, M. Hamidzadeh

Abstract:

Today, with the daily advancement of geotechnical engineering on soil improvement and modification of the physical properties and shear strength of soil, it is now possible to construct structures with high-volume and high service load on loose sandy soils. One of such methods is using micropiles, which are mostly used to control asymmetrical subsidence, increase bearing capacity, and prevent soil liquefaction. This study examined the improvement of Anzali's saturated loose silty sand using 192 micropiles with a length of 8 meters and diameter of 75 mm. Bandar-e Anzali is one of Iran's coastal populated cities which are located in a high-seismicity region. The effects of the insertion of micropiles on prevention of liquefaction and improvement of subsidence were examined through comparison of the results of Standard Penetration Test (SPT) and Plate Load Test (PLT) before and after implementation of the micropiles. The results show that the SPT values and the ultimate bearing capacity of silty sand increased after the implementation of the micropiles. Therefore, the installation of micropiles increases the strength of silty sand improving the resistance of soil against liquefaction.

Keywords: Soil improvement, silty sand, micropiles, SPT, PLT, strength.

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3549 Prediction of Bath Temperature Using Neural Networks

Authors: H. Meradi, S. Bouhouche, M. Lahreche

Abstract:

In this work, we consider an application of neural networks in LD converter. Application of this approach assumes a reliable prediction of steel temperature and reduces a reblow ratio in steel work. It has been applied a conventional model to charge calculation, the obtained results by this technique are not always good, this is due to the process complexity. Difficulties are mainly generated by the noisy measurement and the process non linearities. Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) have become a powerful tool for these complex applications. It is used a backpropagation algorithm to learn the neural nets. (ANNs) is used to predict the steel bath temperature in oxygen converter process for the end condition. This model has 11 inputs process variables and one output. The model was tested in steel work, the obtained results by neural approach are better than the conventional model.

Keywords: LD converter, bath temperature, neural networks.

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3548 Concrete Mix Design Using Neural Network

Authors: Rama Shanker, Anil Kumar Sachan

Abstract:

Basic ingredients of concrete are cement, fine aggregate, coarse aggregate and water. To produce a concrete of certain specific properties, optimum proportion of these ingredients are mixed. The important factors which govern the mix design are grade of concrete, type of cement and size, shape and grading of aggregates. Concrete mix design method is based on experimentally evolved empirical relationship between the factors in the choice of mix design. Basic draw backs of this method are that it does not produce desired strength, calculations are cumbersome and a number of tables are to be referred for arriving at trial mix proportion moreover, the variation in attainment of desired strength is uncertain below the target strength and may even fail. To solve this problem, a lot of cubes of standard grades were prepared and attained 28 days strength determined for different combination of cement, fine aggregate, coarse aggregate and water. An artificial neural network (ANN) was prepared using these data. The input of ANN were grade of concrete, type of cement, size, shape and grading of aggregates and output were proportions of various ingredients. With the help of these inputs and outputs, ANN was trained using feed forward back proportion model. Finally trained ANN was validated, it was seen that it gave the result with/ error of maximum 4 to 5%. Hence, specific type of concrete can be prepared from given material properties and proportions of these materials can be quickly evaluated using the proposed ANN.

Keywords: Aggregate Proportions, Artificial Neural Network, Concrete Grade, Concrete Mix Design.

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3547 Automatic Generation of Ontology from Data Source Directed by Meta Models

Authors: Widad Jakjoud, Mohamed Bahaj, Jamal Bakkas

Abstract:

Through this paper we present a method for automatic generation of ontological model from any data source using Model Driven Architecture (MDA), this generation is dedicated to the cooperation of the knowledge engineering and software engineering. Indeed, reverse engineering of a data source generates a software model (schema of data) that will undergo transformations to generate the ontological model. This method uses the meta-models to validate software and ontological models.

Keywords: Meta model, model, ontology, data source.

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3546 The Effect of Ion Nitriding and Carbonitriding on Fretting Fatigue of Steels

Authors: V. Linhart, M.

Abstract:

The paper deals with the effect of ion nitriding and carbonitriding on fatigue strength of steel parts under the fretting conditions. Instrumented fatigue tests were carried out on surface treated flat bars from EA1N and EA4T steels with different strength. The chosen surfacing decrease importantly an unfavorable fretting effect. Nitridation suppressed the unfavorable effect of fretting almost entirely, while the influence of carbonitridation was less striking. The results were compared with those ones obtained on bars without surfacing. The causes of favorable influence of surfacing are discussed.

Keywords: Carbonitriding, fatigue, fretting, nitriding, steel.

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3545 Development and Structural Performance Evaluation on Slit Circular Shear Panel Damper

Authors: Daniel Y. Abebe, Jaehyouk Choi

Abstract:

There are several types of metal-based devices conceived as dampers for the seismic energy absorber whereby damages to the major structural components could be minimized for both new and existing structures. This paper aimed to develop and evaluate structural performance of slit circular shear panel damper for passive seismic energy protection by inelastic deformation. Structural evaluation was done using commercially available nonlinear FE simulation program. The main parameters considered are: diameter-to-thickness (D/t) ratio and slit length-to-width ratio (l/w). Depending on these parameters three different buckling mode and hysteretic behavior was found: yielding prior to buckling without strength degradation, yielding prior to buckling with strength degradation and yielding with buckling and strength degradation which forms pinching at initial displacement. The susceptible location at which the possible crack is initiated is also identified for selected specimens using rupture index.

Keywords: Slit circular shear panel damper, Hysteresis Characteristics, Slip length-to-width ratio, D/t ratio, FE analysis.

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3544 Effect of Fiber Types and Elevated Temperatures on the Bond Characteristic of Fiber Reinforced Concretes

Authors: Erdoğan Özbay, Hakan T. Türker, Müzeyyen Balçıkanlı, Mohamed Lachemi

Abstract:

In this paper, the effects of fiber types and elevated temperatures on compressive strength, modulus of rapture and the bond characteristics of fiber reinforced concretes (FRC) are presented. By using the three different types of fibers (steel fiber-SF, polypropylene-PPF and polyvinyl alcohol-PVA), FRC specimens were produced and exposed to elevated temperatures up to 800 ºC for 1.5 hours. In addition, a plain concrete (without fiber) was produced and used as a control. Test results obtained showed that the steel fiber reinforced concrete (SFRC) had the highest compressive strength, modulus of rapture and bond stress values at room temperatures, the residual bond, flexural and compressive strengths of both FRC and plain concrete dropped sharply after exposure to high temperatures. The results also indicated that the reduction of bond, flexural and compressive strengths with increasing the exposed temperature was relatively less for SFRC than for plain, and FRC with PPF and PVA.

Keywords: Bond stress, Compressive strength, Elevated temperatures, Fiber reinforced concrete, Modulus of rapture.

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3543 Tool Wear and Surface Roughness Prediction using an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) in Turning Steel under Minimum Quantity Lubrication (MQL)

Authors: S. M. Ali, N. R. Dhar

Abstract:

Tool wear and surface roughness prediction plays a significant role in machining industry for proper planning and control of machining parameters and optimization of cutting conditions. This paper deals with developing an artificial neural network (ANN) model as a function of cutting parameters in turning steel under minimum quantity lubrication (MQL). A feed-forward backpropagation network with twenty five hidden neurons has been selected as the optimum network. The co-efficient of determination (R2) between model predictions and experimental values are 0.9915, 0.9906, 0.9761 and 0.9627 in terms of VB, VM, VS and Ra respectively. The results imply that the model can be used easily to forecast tool wear and surface roughness in response to cutting parameters.

Keywords: ANN, MQL, Surface Roughness, Tool Wear.

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3542 Prediction of Tool and Nozzle Flow Behavior in Ultrasonic Machining Process

Authors: Vinod Kumar, Jatinder Kumar

Abstract:

The use of hard and brittle material has become increasingly more extensive in recent years. Therefore processing of these materials for the parts fabrication has become a challenging problem. However, it is time-consuming to machine the hard brittle materials with the traditional metal-cutting technique that uses abrasive wheels. In addition, the tool would suffer excessive wear as well. However, if ultrasonic energy is applied to the machining process and coupled with the use of hard abrasive grits, hard and brittle materials can be effectively machined. Ultrasonic machining process is mostly used for the brittle materials. The present research work has developed models using finite element approach to predict the mechanical stresses sand strains produced in the tool during ultrasonic machining process. Also the flow behavior of abrasive slurry coming out of the nozzle has been studied for simulation using ANSYS CFX module. The different abrasives of different grit sizes have been used for the experimentation work.

Keywords: Stress, MRR, Flow, Ultrasonic Machining

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3541 The Effects of Extracorporeal Shockwave Therapy on Pain, Function, Range of Motion and Strength in Patients with Plantar Fasciitis

Authors: P. Sanzo

Abstract:

Ten percent of the population will develop plantar fasciitis (PF) during their lifetime. Two million people are treated yearly accounting for 11-15% of visits to medical professionals. Treatment ranges from conservative to surgical intervention. The purpose of this study was to assess the effects of extracorporeal shockwave therapy (ECSWT) on heel pain, function, range of motion (ROM), and strength in patients with PF. One hundred subjects were treated with ECSWT and measures were taken before and three months after treatment. There was significant differences in visual analog scale scores for pain at rest (p=0.0001); after activity (p= 0.0001) and; overall improvement (p=0.0001). There was also significant improvement in Lower Extremity Functional Scale scores (p=0.0001); ankle plantarflexion (p=0.0001), dorsiflexion (p=0.001), and eversion (p=0.017),and first metatarsophalangeal joint flexion (p=0.002) and extension (p=0.003) ROM. ECSWT is an effective treatment improving heel pain, function and ROM in patients with PF.

Keywords: Extracorporeal shockwave therapy, shockwave therapy, plantar fasciitis, heel pain, function, range of motion, strength.

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3540 Validation of the WAsP Model for a Terrain Surrounded by Mountainous Region

Authors: Mohammadamin Zanganeh, Vahid Khalajzadeh

Abstract:

The problems associated with wind predictions of WAsP model in complex terrain are already the target of several studies in the last decade. In this paper, the influence of surrounding orography on accuracy of wind data analysis of a train is investigated. For the case study, a site with complex surrounding orography is considered. This site is located in Manjil, one of the windiest cities of Iran. For having precise evaluation of wind regime in the site, one-year wind data measurements from two metrological masts are used. To validate the obtained results from WAsP, the cross prediction between each mast is performed. The analysis reveals that WAsP model can estimate the wind speed behavior accurately. In addition, results show that this software can be used for predicting the wind regime in flat sites with complex surrounding orography.

Keywords: Complex terrain, Meteorological mast, WAsPmodel, Wind prediction

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3539 Prediction Heating Values of Lignocellulosics from Biomass Characteristics

Authors: Kaltima Phichai, Pornchanoke Pragrobpondee, Thaweesak Khumpart, Samorn Hirunpraditkoon

Abstract:

The paper provides biomasses characteristics by proximate analysis (volatile matter, fixed carbon and ash) and ultimate analysis (carbon, hydrogen, nitrogen and oxygen) for the prediction of the heating value equations. The heating value estimation of various biomasses can be used as an energy evaluation. Thirteen types of biomass were studied. Proximate analysis was investigated by mass loss method and infrared moisture analyzer. Ultimate analysis was analyzed by CHNO analyzer. The heating values varied from 15 to 22.4MJ kg-1. Correlations of the calculated heating value with proximate and ultimate analyses were undertaken using multiple regression analysis and summarized into three and two equations, respectively. Correlations based on proximate analysis illustrated that deviation of calculated heating values from experimental heating values was higher than the correlations based on ultimate analysis.

Keywords: Heating value equation, Proximate analysis, Ultimate analysis.

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3538 Prediction-Based Midterm Operation Planning for Energy Management of Exhibition Hall

Authors: Doseong Eom, Jeongmin Kim, Kwang Ryel Ryu

Abstract:

Large exhibition halls require a lot of energy to maintain comfortable atmosphere for the visitors viewing inside. One way of reducing the energy cost is to have thermal energy storage systems installed so that the thermal energy can be stored in the middle of night when the energy price is low and then used later when the price is high. To minimize the overall energy cost, however, we should be able to decide how much energy to save during which time period exactly. If we can foresee future energy load and the corresponding cost, we will be able to make such decisions reasonably. In this paper, we use machine learning technique to obtain models for predicting weather conditions and the number of visitors on hourly basis for the next day. Based on the energy load thus predicted, we build a cost-optimal daily operation plan for the thermal energy storage systems and cooling and heating facilities through simulation-based optimization.

Keywords: Building energy management, machine learning, simulation-based optimization, operation planning.

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3537 Validating Condition-Based Maintenance Algorithms Through Simulation

Authors: Marcel Chevalier, Léo Dupont, Sylvain Marié, Frédérique Roffet, Elena Stolyarova, William Templier, Costin Vasile

Abstract:

Industrial end users are currently facing an increasing need to reduce the risk of unexpected failures and optimize their maintenance. This calls for both short-term analysis and long-term ageing anticipation. At Schneider Electric, we tackle those two issues using both Machine Learning and First Principles models. Machine learning models are incrementally trained from normal data to predict expected values and detect statistically significant short-term deviations. Ageing models are constructed from breaking down physical systems into sub-assemblies, then determining relevant degradation modes and associating each one to the right kinetic law. Validating such anomaly detection and maintenance models is challenging, both because actual incident and ageing data are rare and distorted by human interventions, and incremental learning depends on human feedback. To overcome these difficulties, we propose to simulate physics, systems and humans – including asset maintenance operations – in order to validate the overall approaches in accelerated time and possibly choose between algorithmic alternatives.

Keywords: Degradation models, ageing, anomaly detection, soft sensor, incremental learning.

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3536 Neuro-fuzzy Model and Regression Model a Comparison Study of MRR in Electrical Discharge Machining of D2 Tool Steel

Authors: M. K. Pradhan, C. K. Biswas,

Abstract:

In the current research, neuro-fuzzy model and regression model was developed to predict Material Removal Rate in Electrical Discharge Machining process for AISI D2 tool steel with copper electrode. Extensive experiments were conducted with various levels of discharge current, pulse duration and duty cycle. The experimental data are split into two sets, one for training and the other for validation of the model. The training data were used to develop the above models and the test data, which was not used earlier to develop these models were used for validation the models. Subsequently, the models are compared. It was found that the predicted and experimental results were in good agreement and the coefficients of correlation were found to be 0.999 and 0.974 for neuro fuzzy and regression model respectively

Keywords: Electrical discharge machining, material removal rate, neuro-fuzzy model, regression model, mountain clustering.

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3535 The Effect of Zeolite on Sandy-Silt Soil Mechanical Properties

Authors: Shahryar Aftabi, Saeed Fathi, Mohammad H. Aminfar

Abstract:

It is well known that cemented sand is one of the best approaches for soil stabilization. In some cases, a blend of sand, cement and other pozzolan materials such as zeolite, nano-particles and fiber can be widely (commercially) available and be effectively used in soil stabilization, especially in road construction. In this research, we investigate the effects of CaO which is based on the geotechnical characteristics of zeolite composition with sandy silt soil. Zeolites have low amount of CaO in their structures, that is, varying from 3% to 10%, and by removing the cement paste, we want to investigate the effect of zeolite pozzolan without any activator on soil samples strength. In this research, experiments are concentrated on various weight percentages of zeolite in the soil to examine the effect of the zeolite on drainage shear strength and California Bearing Ratio (CBR) both with and without curing. The study also investigates their liquid limit and plastic limit behavior and makes a comparative result by using Feng's and Wroth-Wood's methods in fall cone (cone penetrometer) device; in the final the SEM images have been presented. The results show that by increasing the percentage of zeolite in without-curing samples, the fine zeolite particles increase some soil's strength, but in the curing-state we can see a relatively higher strength toward without-curing state, since the zeolites have no plastic behavior, the pozzolanic property of zeolites plays a much higher role than cementing properties. Indeed, it is better to combine zeolite particle with activator material such as cement or lime to gain better results.

Keywords: CBR, direct shear, fall-cone, sandy-silt, SEM, zeolite.

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3534 Experimental and Numerical Investigations on Flexural Behavior of Macro-Synthetic FRC

Authors: Ashkan Shafee, Ahamd Fahimifar, Sajjad V. Maghvan

Abstract:

Promotion of the Fiber Reinforced Concrete (FRC) as a construction material for civil engineering projects has invoked numerous researchers to investigate their mechanical behavior. Even though there is satisfactory information about the effects of fiber type and length, concrete mixture, casting type and other variables on the strength and deformability parameters of FRC, the numerical modeling of such materials still needs research attention. The focus of this study is to investigate the feasibility of Concrete Damaged Plasticity (CDP) model in prediction of Macro-synthetic FRC structures behavior. CDP model requires the tensile behavior of concrete to be well characterized. For this purpose, a series of uniaxial direct tension and four point bending tests were conducted on the notched specimens to define bilinear tension softening (post-peak tension stress-strain) behavior. With these parameters obtained, the flexural behavior of macro-synthetic FRC beams were modeled and the results showed a good agreement with the experimental measurements.

Keywords: Concrete damaged plasticity, fiber reinforced concrete, finite element modeling, macro-synthetic fibers, direct tensile test.

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3533 Influence of Laminated Textile Structures on Mechanical Performance of NF-Epoxy Composites

Authors: A. R. Azrin Hani, R. Ahmad, M. Mariatti

Abstract:

Textile structures are engineered and fabricated to meet worldwide structural applications. Nevertheless, research varying textile structure on natural fibre as composite reinforcement was found to be very limited. Most of the research is focusing on short fibre and random discontinuous orientation of the reinforcement structure. Realizing that natural fibre (NF) composite had been widely developed to be used as synthetic fibre composite replacement, this research attempted to examine the influence of woven and cross-ply laminated structure towards its mechanical performances. Laminated natural fibre composites were developed using hand lay-up and vacuum bagging technique. Impact and flexural strength were investigated as a function of fibre type (coir and kenaf) and reinforcement structure (imbalanced plain woven, 0°/90° cross-ply and +45°/-45° cross-ply). Multi-level full factorial design of experiment (DOE) and analysis of variance (ANOVA) was employed to impart data as to how fibre type and reinforcement structure parameters affect the mechanical properties of the composites. This systematic experimentation has led to determination of significant factors that predominant influences the impact and flexural properties of the textile composites. It was proven that both fibre type and reinforcement structure demonstrated significant difference results. Overall results indicated that coir composite and woven structure exhibited better impact and flexural strength. Yet, cross-ply composite structure demonstrated better fracture resistance.

Keywords: Cross-ply composite, Flexural strength, Impact strength, Textile natural fibre composite, Woven composite.

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3532 Fabrication, Testing and Machinability Evaluation of Glass Fiber Reinforced Epoxy Composites

Authors: S. S. Panda, Arkesh Chouhan, Yogesh Deshpande

Abstract:

The present paper deals with designing and fabricating an apparatus for the speedy and accurate manufacturing of fiber reinforced composite lamina of different orientation, thickness and stacking sequences for testing. Properties derived through an analytical approach are verified through measuring the elastic modulus, ultimate tensile strength, flexural modulus and flexural strength of the samples. The 00 orientation ply looks stiffer compared to the 900 ply. Similarly, the flexural strength of 00 ply is higher than to the 900 ply. Sample machinability has been studied by conducting numbers of drilling based on Taguchi Design experiments. Multi Responses (Delamination and Damage grading) is obtained using the desirability approach and optimum cutting condition (spindle speed, feed and drill diameter), at which responses are minimized is obtained thereafter. Delamination increases nonlinearly with the increase in spindle speed. Similarly, the influence of the drill diameter on delamination is higher than the spindle speed and feed rate.

Keywords: Delamination, FRP composite, multi response optimization, Taguchi design.

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3531 Hardware Description Language Design of Σ-Δ Fractional-N Phase-Locked Loop for Wireless Applications

Authors: Ahmed El Oualkadi, Abdellah Ait Ouahman

Abstract:

This paper discusses a systematic design of a Σ-Δ fractional-N Phase-Locked Loop based on HDL behavioral modeling. The proposed design consists in describing the mixed behavior of this PLL architecture starting from the specifications of each building block. The HDL models of critical PLL blocks have been described in VHDL-AMS to predict the different specifications of the PLL. The effect of different noise sources has been efficiently introduced to study the PLL system performances. The obtained results are compared with transistor-level simulations to validate the effectiveness of the proposed models for wireless applications in the frequency range around 2.45 GHz.

Keywords: Phase-locked loop, frequency synthesizer, fractional-N PLL, Σ-Δ modulator, HDL models

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3530 Mix Design Curves for High Volume Fly Ash Concrete

Authors: S. S. Awanti, Aravindakumar B. Harwalkar

Abstract:

Concrete construction in future has to be environmental friendly apart from being safe so that society at large is benefited by the huge investments made in the infrastructure projects. To achieve this, component materials of the concrete system have to be optimized with reference to sustainability. This paper presents a study on development of mix proportions of high volume fly ash concrete (HFC). A series of HFC mixtures with cement replacement levels varying between 50% and 65% were prepared with water/binder ratios of 0.3 and 0.35. Compressive strength values were obtained at different ages. From the experimental results, pozzolanic efficiency ratios and mix design curves for HFC were established.

Keywords: Age factor, compressive strength, high volume fly ash concrete, pozzolanic efficiency ratio.

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3529 Improving Protein-Protein Interaction Prediction by Using Encoding Strategies and Random Indices

Authors: Essam Al-Daoud

Abstract:

A New features are extracted and compared to improve the prediction of protein-protein interactions. The basic idea is to select and use the best set of features from the Tensor matrices that are produced by the frequency vectors of the protein sequences. Three set of features are compared, the first set is based on the indices that are the most common in the interacting proteins, the second set is based on the indices that tend to be common in the interacting and non-interacting proteins, and the third set is constructed by using random indices. Moreover, three encoding strategies are compared; that are based on the amino asides polarity, structure, and chemical properties. The experimental results indicate that the highest accuracy can be obtained by using random indices with chemical properties encoding strategy and support vector machine.

Keywords: protein-protein interactions, random indices, encoding strategies, support vector machine.

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3528 Wind Power Forecast Error Simulation Model

Authors: Josip Vasilj, Petar Sarajcev, Damir Jakus

Abstract:

One of the major difficulties introduced with wind power penetration is the inherent uncertainty in production originating from uncertain wind conditions. This uncertainty impacts many different aspects of power system operation, especially the balancing power requirements. For this reason, in power system development planing, it is necessary to evaluate the potential uncertainty in future wind power generation. For this purpose, simulation models are required, reproducing the performance of wind power forecasts. This paper presents a wind power forecast error simulation models which are based on the stochastic process simulation. Proposed models capture the most important statistical parameters recognized in wind power forecast error time series. Furthermore, two distinct models are presented based on data availability. First model uses wind speed measurements on potential or existing wind power plant locations, while the seconds model uses statistical distribution of wind speeds.

Keywords: Wind power, Uncertainty, Stochastic process, Monte Carlo simulation.

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3527 Study of a BVAR(p) Process Applied to U.S. Commodity Market Data

Authors: Jan Sindelar

Abstract:

The paper presents an applied study of a multivariate AR(p) process fitted to daily data from U.S. commodity futures markets with the use of Bayesian statistics. In the first part a detailed description of the methods used is given. In the second part two BVAR models are chosen one with assumption of lognormal, the second with normal distribution of prices conditioned on the parameters. For a comparison two simple benchmark models are chosen that are commonly used in todays Financial Mathematics. The article compares the quality of predictions of all the models, tries to find an adequate rate of forgetting of information and questions the validity of Efficient Market Hypothesis in the semi-strong form.

Keywords: Vector auto-regression, forecasting, financial, Bayesian, efficient markets.

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3526 Nuclear Fuel Safety Threshold Determined by Logistic Regression Plus Uncertainty

Authors: D. S. Gomes, A. T. Silva

Abstract:

Analysis of the uncertainty quantification related to nuclear safety margins applied to the nuclear reactor is an important concept to prevent future radioactive accidents. The nuclear fuel performance code may involve the tolerance level determined by traditional deterministic models producing acceptable results at burn cycles under 62 GWd/MTU. The behavior of nuclear fuel can simulate applying a series of material properties under irradiation and physics models to calculate the safety limits. In this study, theoretical predictions of nuclear fuel failure under transient conditions investigate extended radiation cycles at 75 GWd/MTU, considering the behavior of fuel rods in light-water reactors under reactivity accident conditions. The fuel pellet can melt due to the quick increase of reactivity during a transient. Large power excursions in the reactor are the subject of interest bringing to a treatment that is known as the Fuchs-Hansen model. The point kinetic neutron equations show similar characteristics of non-linear differential equations. In this investigation, the multivariate logistic regression is employed to a probabilistic forecast of fuel failure. A comparison of computational simulation and experimental results was acceptable. The experiments carried out use the pre-irradiated fuels rods subjected to a rapid energy pulse which exhibits the same behavior during a nuclear accident. The propagation of uncertainty utilizes the Wilk's formulation. The variables chosen as essential to failure prediction were the fuel burnup, the applied peak power, the pulse width, the oxidation layer thickness, and the cladding type.

Keywords: Logistic regression, reactivity-initiated accident, safety margins, uncertainty propagation.

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3525 Development of Recycled-Modified Asphalt Using Basalt Aggregate

Authors: Dong Wook Lee, Seung Hyun Kim, Jeongho Oh

Abstract:

With the strengthened regulation on the mandatory use of recycled aggregate, development of construction materials using recycled aggregate has recently increased. This study aimed to secure the performance of asphalt concrete mixture by developing recycled-modified asphalt using recycled basalt aggregate from the Jeju area. The strength of the basalt aggregate from the Jeju area used in this study was similar to that of general aggregate, while the specific surface area was larger due to the development of pores. Modified asphalt was developed using a general aggregate-recycled aggregate ratio of 7:3, and the results indicated that the Marshall stability increased by 27% compared to that of asphalt concrete mixture using only general aggregate, and the flow values showed similar levels. Also, the indirect tensile strength increased by 79%, and the toughness increased by more than 100%. In addition, the TSR for examining moisture resistance was 0.95 indicating that the reduction in the indirect tensile strength due to moisture was very low (5% level), and the developed recycled-modified asphalt could satisfy all the quality standards of asphalt concrete mixture.

Keywords: Asphalt Concrete Mixture, Performance Grade, Recycled Basalt Aggregate, Recycled-Modified Asphalt.

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3524 Effect of Turbulence Models on Simulated Iced Aircraft Airfoil

Authors: Muhammad Afzal, Cao Yihua, Zhao Ming

Abstract:

The present work describes a computational study of aerodynamic characteristics of GLC305 airfoil clean and with 16.7 min ice shape (rime 212) and 22.5 min ice shape (glaze 944).The performance of turbulence models SA, Kε, Kω Std, and Kω SST model are observed against experimental flow fields at different Mach numbers 0.12, 0.21, 0.28 in a range of Reynolds numbers 3x106, 6x106, and 10.5x106 on clean and iced aircraft airfoil GLC305. Numerical predictions include lift, drag and pitching moment coefficients at different Mach numbers and at different angle of attacks were done. Accuracy of solutions with respect to the effects of turbulence models, variation of Mach number, initial conditions, grid resolution and grid spacing near the wall made the study much sensitive. Navier Stokes equation based computational technique is used. Results are very close to the experimental results. It has seen that SA and SST models are more efficient than Kε and Kω standard in under study problem.

Keywords: Aerodynamics, Airfoil GLC305, Iced Airfoil, Turbulence Model

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3523 Proposal of Additional Fuzzy Membership Functions in Smoothing Transition Autoregressive Models

Authors: Ε. Giovanis

Abstract:

In this paper we present, propose and examine additional membership functions for the Smoothing Transition Autoregressive (STAR) models. More specifically, we present the tangent hyperbolic, Gaussian and Generalized bell functions. Because Smoothing Transition Autoregressive (STAR) models follow fuzzy logic approach, more fuzzy membership functions should be tested. Furthermore, fuzzy rules can be incorporated or other training or computational methods can be applied as the error backpropagation or genetic algorithm instead to nonlinear squares. We examine two macroeconomic variables of US economy, the inflation rate and the 6-monthly treasury bills interest rates.

Keywords: Forecast , Fuzzy membership functions, Smoothingtransition, Time-series

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3522 A Neural Network Approach in Predicting the Blood Glucose Level for Diabetic Patients

Authors: Zarita Zainuddin, Ong Pauline, C. Ardil

Abstract:

Diabetes Mellitus is a chronic metabolic disorder, where the improper management of the blood glucose level in the diabetic patients will lead to the risk of heart attack, kidney disease and renal failure. This paper attempts to enhance the diagnostic accuracy of the advancing blood glucose levels of the diabetic patients, by combining principal component analysis and wavelet neural network. The proposed system makes separate blood glucose prediction in the morning, afternoon, evening and night intervals, using dataset from one patient covering a period of 77 days. Comparisons of the diagnostic accuracy with other neural network models, which use the same dataset are made. The comparison results showed overall improved accuracy, which indicates the effectiveness of this proposed system.

Keywords: Diabetes Mellitus, principal component analysis, time-series, wavelet neural network.

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