Search results for: loss probability

Authors: Nkongho Ayuketang Arreyndip, Ebobenow Joseph

Abstract:

In this paper, to model a real life wind turbine, a probabilistic approach is proposed to model the dynamics of the blade elements of a small axial wind turbine under extreme stochastic wind speeds conditions. It was found that the power and the torque probability density functions even-dough decreases at these extreme wind speeds but are not infinite. Moreover, we also fund that it is possible to stabilize the power coefficient (stabilizing the output power)above rated wind speeds by turning some control parameters. This method helps to explain the effect of turbulence on the quality and quantity of the harness power and aerodynamic torque.

Keywords: Probability, Stochastic, Probability density function, Turbulence.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1745

Authors: Wook-Won Kim, Je-Seok Shin, Jin-O Kim

Abstract:

As the penetration of Energy Storage System (ESS) increases in the power system due to higher performance and lower cost than ever, ESS is expanding its role to the ancillary service as well as the storage of extra energy from the intermittent renewable energy resources. For multi-ESS with different capacity and SOC level each other, it is required to make the optimal schedule of SOC level use the multi-ESS effectively. This paper proposes the energy allocation method for the multiple battery ESS with reliability constraint, in order to make the ESS discharge the required energy as long as possible. A simple but effective method is proposed in this paper, to satisfy the power for the spinning reserve requirement while improving the system reliability. Modelling of ESS is also proposed, and reliability is evaluated by using the combined reliability model which includes the proposed ESS model and conventional generation one. In the case study, it can be observed that the required power is distributed to each ESS adequately and accordingly, the SOC is scheduled to improve the reliability indices such as Loss of Load Probability (LOLP) and Loss of Load Expectation (LOLE).

Keywords: Multiple energy storage system, energy allocation method, SOC schedule, reliability constraints.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1225

Authors: Zina Benouaret, Djamil Aissani

Abstract:

In this work, we introduce the qualitative and quantitative concept of the strong stability method in the risk process modeling two lines of business of the same insurance company or an insurance and re-insurance companies that divide between them both claims and premiums with a certain proportion. The approach proposed is based on the identification of the ruin probability associate to the model considered, with a stationary distribution of a Markov random process called a reversed process. Our objective, after clarifying the condition and the perturbation domain of parameters, is to obtain the stability inequality of the ruin probability which is applied to estimate the approximation error of a model with disturbance parameters by the considered model. In the stability bound obtained, all constants are explicitly written.

Keywords: Markov chain, risk models, ruin probabilities, strong stability analysis.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 889

Authors: Derya Burcu Ozkan, Onur Kiziler, Duriye Bilge

Abstract:

Cogeneration may be defined as a system which contains electricity production and regain of the thermo value of exhaust gases simultaneously. The examination is based on the data-s of an active cogeneration plant. This study, it is aimed to determine which component of the system should be revised first to raise the efficiency and decrease the loss of exergy. For this purpose, second law analysis of thermodynamics is applied to each component due to consider the effects of environmental conditions and take the quality of energy into consideration as well as the quantity of it. The exergy balance equations are produced and exergy loss is calculated for each component. 44,44 % loss of exergy in heat exchanger, 29,59 % in combustion chamber, 18,68 % in steam boiler, 5,25 % in gas turbine and 2,03 % in compressor is calculated.

Keywords: Cogeneration, Exergy loss, Second law analysis

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2517

Authors: Zhanli Zhang, Wei Chen, Xin Jiang, Lili Ma, Shaoting Tang, Zhiming Zheng

Abstract:

A new class of percolation model in complex networks, in which nodes are characterized by hidden variables reflecting the properties of nodes and the occupied probability of each link is determined by the hidden variables of the end nodes, is studied in this paper. By the mean field theory, the analytical expressions for the phase of percolation transition is deduced. It is determined by the distribution of the hidden variables for the nodes and the occupied probability between pairs of them. Moreover, the analytical expressions obtained are checked by means of numerical simulations on a particular model. Besides, the general model can be applied to describe and control practical diffusion models, such as disease diffusion model, scientists cooperation networks, and so on.

Keywords: complex networks, percolation transition, hidden variable, occupied probability.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1608

Authors: Md. Sohidul Islam, Mohammad Rakibul Islam

Abstract:

In this paper, we consider a non-identically independently distributed (non-i.i.d.) Hoyt fading single-input multiple-out put (SIMO) channel, where the transmitter sends some confidential information to the legitimate receiver in presence of an eavesdropper. We formulated the probability of non-zero secrecy mutual information; secure outage probability and average secrecy mutual information (SMI) for the SIMO wireless communication system. The calculation has been carried out using small limit argument approximation (SLAA) on zeroth-order modified Bessel function of first kind. In our proposed model, an eavesdropper observes transmissions of information through another Hoyt fading channel. First, we derived the analytical expression for non-zero secrecy mutual information. Then, we find the secure outage probability to investigate the outage behavior of the proposed model. Finally, we find the average secrecy mutual information. We consider that the channel state information (CSI) is known to legitimate receiver.

Keywords: Hoyt fading, main channel, eavesdropper channel, secure outage probability, average secrecy mutual information.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1400

Authors: Zhichao Jiao, Craig Farnham, Jihui Yuan, Kazuo Emura

Abstract:

It is common to use the outdoor design weather data to select the air-conditioning capacity in the building design stage. The meteorological elements of outdoor design weather data are usually selected based on their excess frequency separately while the dependency between the elements is not well considered. It means that the simultaneous occurrence probability of these elements is smaller than the original excess frequency which may cause an overestimation of selecting air-conditioning capacity. Therefore, the copula approach which can capture the dependency between multivariate data was used to model the joint distributions of the meteorological elements, like air temperature and global solar radiation. We suggest a method based on the specific simultaneous occurrence probability of these two elements of selecting more credible outdoor design conditions. The hourly weather data at 12 noon from 2001 to 2010 in Tokyo, Japan are used to analyze the dependency structure and joint distribution, the Gaussian copula represents the dependence of data best. According to calculating the air temperature and global solar radiation in specific simultaneous occurrence probability and the common exceeding, the results show that both the air temperature and global solar radiation based on simultaneous occurrence probability are lower than these based on the conventional method in the same probability.

Keywords: Copula approach, Design weather database, energy conservation, HVAC.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 361

Authors: M. Ranjeeth, S. Anuradha

Abstract:

Spectrum sensing is the main feature of cognitive radio technology. Spectrum sensing gives an idea of detecting the presence of the primary users in a licensed spectrum. In this paper we compare the theoretical results of detection probability of different fading environments like Rayleigh, Rician, Nakagami-m fading channels with the simulation results using energy detection based spectrum sensing. The numerical results are plotted as Pf Vs Pd for different SNR values, fading parameters. It is observed that Nakagami fading channel performance is better than other fading channels by using energy detection in spectrum sensing. A MATLAB simulation test bench has been implemented to know the performance of energy detection in different fading channel environment.

Keywords: Spectrum sensing, Energy detection, fading channels, Probability of detection, probability of false alarm.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 3100

Authors: A. Zanaz, S. Yotte, F. Fouchal, A. Chateauneuf

Abstract:

This paper presents a methodology for probabilistic assessment of bearing capacity and prediction of failure mechanism of masonry vaults at the ultimate state with consideration of the natural variability of Young’s modulus of stones. First, the computation model is explained. The failure mode corresponds to the four-hinge mechanism. Based on this consideration, the study of a vault composed of 16 segments is presented. The Young’s modulus of the segments is considered as random variable defined by a mean value and a coefficient of variation. A relationship linking the vault bearing capacity to the voussoirs modulus variation is proposed. The most probable failure mechanisms, in addition to that observed in the deterministic case, are identified for each variability level as well as their probability of occurrence. The results show that the mechanism observed in the deterministic case has decreasing probability of occurrence in terms of variability, while the number of other mechanisms and their probability of occurrence increases with the coefficient of variation of Young’s modulus. This means that if a significant change in the Young’s modulus of the segments is proven, taking it into account in computations becomes mandatory, both for determining the vault bearing capacity and for predicting its failure mechanism.

Keywords: Masonry, mechanism, probability, variability, vault.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2006

Authors: Deependra Singh, Devender Singh, K. S. Verma

Abstract:

This paper addresses a novel technique for placement of distributed generation (DG) in electric power systems. A GA based approach for sizing and placement of DG keeping in view of system power loss minimization in different loading conditions is explained. Minimal system power loss is obtained under voltage and line loading constraints. Proposed strategy is applied to power distribution systems and its effectiveness is verified through simulation results on 16, 37-bus and 75-bus test systems.

Keywords: Distributed generation (DG), Genetic algorithms (GA), optimal sizing and placement, Power loss.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 3468

Authors: Yi-Cheng Huang, Yan-Chen Shin

Abstract:

This paper proposes method of diagnosing ball screw preload loss through the Hilbert-Huang Transform （HHT） and Multiscale entropy （MSE） process. The proposed method can diagnose ball screw preload loss through vibration signals when the machine tool is in operation. Maximum dynamic preload of 2 %, 4 %, and 6 % ball screws were predesigned, manufactured, and tested experimentally. Signal patterns are discussed and revealed using Empirical Mode Decomposition（EMD）with the Hilbert Spectrum. Different preload features are extracted and discriminated using HHT. The irregularity development of a ball screw with preload loss is determined and abstracted using MSE based on complexity perception. Experiment results show that the proposed method can predict the status of ball screw preload loss. Smart sensing for the health of the ball screw is also possible based on a comparative evaluation of MSE by the signal processing and pattern matching of EMD/HHT. This diagnosis method realizes the purposes of prognostic effectiveness on knowing the preload loss and utilizing convenience.

Keywords: Empirical Mode Decomposition, Hilbert-Huang Transform, Multi-scale Entropy, Preload Loss, Single-nut Ball Screw

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2843

Authors: Sunitha S. L., V. Udayashankara

Abstract:

Hearing impairment is the number one chronic disability affecting many people in the world. Background noise is particularly damaging to speech intelligibility for people with hearing loss especially for sensorineural loss patients. Several investigations on speech intelligibility have demonstrated sensorineural loss patients need 5-15 dB higher SNR than the normal hearing subjects. This paper describes Discrete Hartley Transform Power Normalized Least Mean Square algorithm (DHT-LMS) to improve the SNR and to reduce the convergence rate of the Least Means Square (LMS) for sensorineural loss patients. The DHT transforms n real numbers to n real numbers, and has the convenient property of being its own inverse. It can be effectively used for noise cancellation with less convergence time. The simulated result shows the superior characteristics by improving the SNR at least 9 dB for input SNR with zero dB and faster convergence rate (eigenvalue ratio 12) compare to time domain method and DFT-LMS.

Keywords: Hearing Impairment, DHT-LMS, Convergence rate, SNR improvement.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1725

Authors: Alhusein Almahjoub, Dongyu Qiu

Abstract:

This paper deals with the random access procedure in next-generation networks and presents the solution to reduce total service time (TST) which is one of the most important performance metrics in current and future internet of things (IoT) based networks. The proposed solution focuses on the calculation of optimal transmission probability which maximizes the success probability and reduces TST. It uses the information of several idle preambles in every time slot, and based on it, it estimates the number of backlogged IoT devices using Naïve Bayes estimation which is a type of supervised learning in the machine learning domain. The estimation of backlogged devices is necessary since optimal transmission probability depends on it and the eNodeB does not have information about it. The simulations are carried out in MATLAB which verify that the proposed solution gives excellent performance.

Keywords: Random access, LTE/LTE-A, 5G, machine learning, Naïve Bayes estimation.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 452

Authors: Min Min Swe Zin

Abstract:

This paper introduces the foundations of Bayesian probability theory and Bayesian decision method. The main goal of Bayesian decision theory is to minimize the expected loss of a decision or minimize the expected risk. The purposes of this study are to review the decision process on the issue of flood occurrences and to suggest possible process for decision improvement. This study examines the problem structure of flood occurrences and theoretically explicates the decision-analytic approach based on Bayesian decision theory and application to flood occurrences in Environmental Engineering. In this study, we will discuss about the flood occurrences upon an annual maximum water level in cm, 43-year record available from 1965 to 2007 at the gauging station of Sagaing on the Ayeyarwady River with the drainage area - 120193 sq km by using Bayesian decision method. As a result, we will discuss the loss and risk of vast areas of agricultural land whether which will be inundated or not in the coming year based on the two standard maximum water levels during 43 years. And also we forecast about that lands will be safe from flood water during the next 10 years.

Keywords: Bayesian decision method, conditional binomial distribution, minimax rules, prior beta distribution.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1579

Authors: Gamze Uslu, Sebnem Baydere, Alper K. Demir

Abstract:

In this study, data loss tolerance of Support Vector Machines (SVM) based activity recognition model and multi activity classification performance when data are received over a lossy wireless sensor network is examined. Initially, the classification algorithm we use is evaluated in terms of resilience to random data loss with 3D acceleration sensor data for sitting, lying, walking and standing actions. The results show that the proposed classification method can recognize these activities successfully despite high data loss. Secondly, the effect of differentiated quality of service performance on activity recognition success is measured with activity data acquired from a multi hop wireless sensor network, which introduces  high data loss. The effect of number of nodes on the reliability and multi activity classification success is demonstrated in simulation environment. To the best of our knowledge, the effect of data loss in a wireless sensor network on activity detection success rate of an SVM based classification algorithm has not been studied before.

Keywords: Activity recognition, support vector machines, acceleration sensor, wireless sensor networks, packet loss.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2871

Authors: D. De-León-Escobedo, D. J. Delgado-Hernández, S. Pérez

Abstract:

A probabilistic formulation to assess the slopes safety under the hazard of strong storms is presented and illustrated through a slope in Mexico. The formulation is based on the classical safety factor (SF) used in practice to appraise the slope stability, but it is introduced the treatment of uncertainties, and the slope failure probability is calculated as the probability that SF<1. As the main hazard is the rainfall on the area, statistics of rainfall intensity and duration are considered and modeled with an exponential distribution. The expected life-cycle cost is assessed by considering a monetary value on the slope failure consequences. Alternative mitigation measures are simulated, and the formulation is used to get the measures driving to the optimal one (minimum life-cycle costs). For the example, the optimal mitigation measure is the reduction on the slope inclination angle.

Keywords: Expected life-cycle cost, failure probability, slopes failure, storms.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 782

Authors: R. Ashok Bakkiyaraj, N. Kumarappan

Abstract:

This paper investigates the suitability of Latin Hypercube sampling (LHS) for composite electric power system reliability analysis. Each sample generated in LHS is mapped into an equivalent system state and used for evaluating the annualized system and load point indices. DC loadflow based state evaluation model is solved for each sampled contingency state. The indices evaluated are loss of load probability, loss of load expectation, expected demand not served and expected energy not supplied. The application of the LHS is illustrated through case studies carried out using RBTS and IEEE-RTS test systems. Results obtained are compared with non-sequential Monte Carlo simulation and state enumeration analytical approaches. An error analysis is also carried out to check the LHS method’s ability to capture the distributions of the reliability indices. It is found that LHS approach estimates indices nearer to actual value and gives tighter bounds of indices than non-sequential Monte Carlo simulation.

Keywords: Composite power system, Latin Hypercube sampling, Monte Carlo simulation, Reliability evaluation, Variance analysis.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 3109

Authors: Arash Kosari, Ali Araghi

Abstract:

A mathematical model for an optical-fiber communication channel is developed which results in an expression that calculates the throughput and loss of the corresponding link. The data are assumed to be transmitted by using of separate photons with different polarizations. The derived model also shows the dependency of data throughput with length of the channel and depolarization factor. It is observed that absorption of photons affects the throughput in a more intensive way in comparison with that of depolarization. Apart from that, the probability of depolarization and the absorption of radiated photons are obtained.

Keywords: Absorption, data throughput, depolarization, optical fiber.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1685

Authors: M.R. Ebrahimi, M. Ehsan

Abstract:

This paper presents a practical scheme that can be used for allocating the transmission loss to generators and loads. In this scheme first the share of a generator or load on the current through a branch is determined using Z-bus modified matrix. Then the current components are decomposed and the branch loss allocation is obtained. A motivation of proposed scheme is to improve the results of Z-bus method and to reach more fair allocation. The proposed scheme has been implemented and tested on several networks. To achieve practical and applicable results, the proposed scheme is simulated and compared on the transmission network (400kv) of Khorasan region in Iran and the 14-bus standard IEEE network. The results show that the proposed scheme is comprehensive and fair to allocating the energy losses of a power market to its participants.

Keywords: Transmission Loss, Loss Allocation, Z-bus modifiedmatrix, current Components Decomposition and Restructured PowerSystems

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1510

Authors: Baseem Khan, Ganga Agnihotri

Abstract:

Restructuring of Electricity supply industry introduced many issues such as transmission pricing, transmission loss allocation and congestion management. Many methodologies and algorithms were proposed for addressing these issues. In this paper a power flow tracing based method is proposed which involves Matrices methodology for the transmission usage and loss allocation for generators and demands. This method provides loss allocation in a direct way because all the computation is previously done for usage allocation. The proposed method is simple and easy to implement in a large power system. Further it is less computational because it requires matrix inversion only a single time. After usage and loss allocation cooperative game theory is applied to results for finding efficient economic signals. Nucleolus and Shapely value approach is used for optimal allocation of results. Results are shown for the IEEE 6 bus system and IEEE 14 bus system.

Keywords: Modified Kirchhoff Matrix, Power flow tracing, Transmission Pricing, Transmission Loss Allocation.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2594

Authors: Po-Wen Chen, Jin-Yu Wu, Md. Manirul Ali, Yang Peng, Chen-Te Chang, Der-Jun Jan

Abstract:

Dynamics of cathode spot has become a major part of vacuum arc discharge with its high academic interest and wide application potential. In this article, using a three-dimensional statistical model, we simulate the distribution of the ignition probability of a new cathode spot occurring in different magnetic pressure on old cathode spot surface and at different arcing time. This model for the ignition probability of a new cathode spot was proposed in two typical situations, one by the pure isotropic random walk in the absence of an external magnetic field, other by the retrograde motion in external magnetic field, in parallel with the cathode surface. We mainly focus on developed relationship between the ignition probability density distribution of a new cathode spot and the external magnetic field.

Keywords: Cathode spot, vacuum arc discharge, transverse magnetic field, random walk.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1399

Authors: Pradip Deb

Abstract:

Quantitative radiobiological models can be used to assess the optimum clinical outcome from sophisticated therapeutic modalities by calculating tumor control probability (TCP) and normal tissue complication probability (NTCP). In this study two 3D-CRT and an IMRT treatment plans were developed with an initial prescription dose of 60 Gy in 2 Gy/fraction to prostate. Sensitivity of TCP and Complication free tumor control probability (P+) to the different values of α/β ratio was investigated for various prescription doses planned to be delivered in either a fixed number of fractions (I) or in a fixed dose per fraction (II) in each of the three different treatment plans. High dose/fraction and high α/β value result in comparatively smaller P+ and IMRT plans resulted in the highest P+, mainly due to the decrease in NTCP. If α/β is lower than expected, better tumor control can be achieved by increasing dose/fraction but decreasing the number of fractions.

Keywords: Linear Quadratic Model, TCP, NTCP, α/β ratio.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1853

Authors: M. Kargar, F. Gharbalchi

Abstract:

In this paper a new method is suggested for distributed data-mining by the probability patterns. These patterns use decision trees and decision graphs. The patterns are cared to be valid, novel, useful, and understandable. Considering a set of functions, the system reaches to a good pattern or better objectives. By using the suggested method we will be able to extract the useful information from massive and multi-relational data bases.

Keywords: Data-mining, Decision tree, Decision graph, Pattern, Relationship.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1557

Authors: A. Habibizad Navin, M. Naghian Fesharaki, M. Mirnia, M. Kargar

Abstract:

In this paper we introduce Digital Probability Hyper Digraph for modeling random variable as the hierarchical data-oriented model.

Keywords: Data-Oriented Models, Data Structure, DigitalProbability Hyper Digraph, Random Variable, Statistic andProbability.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1273

Authors: Jirawat Thaenthong, Steven Gordon

Abstract:

MANEMO is the integration of Network Mobility (NEMO) and Mobile Ad Hoc Network (MANET). A MANEMO node has an interface to both a MANET and NEMO network, and therefore should choose the optimal interface for packet delivery, however such a handover between interfaces will introduce packet loss. We define the steps necessary for a MANEMO handover, using Mobile IP and NEMO to signal the new binding to the relevant Home Agent(s). The handover steps aim to minimize the packet loss by avoiding waiting for Duplicate Address Detection and Neighbour Unreachability Detection. We present expressions for handover delay and packet loss, and then use numerical examples to evaluate a MANEMO handover. The analysis shows how the packet loss depends on level of nesting within NEMO, the delay between Home Agents and the load on the MANET, and hence can be used to developing optimal MANEMO handover algorithms.

Keywords: IP mobility, handover, MANET, network mobility

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2083

Authors: Lokesh Varshney, R. K. Saket

Abstract:

This paper presents reliability indices evaluation of the rotor core magnetization of the induction motor operated as a self excited induction generator by using probability distribution approach and Monte Carlo simulation. Parallel capacitors with calculated minimum capacitive value across the terminals of the induction motor operated as a SEIG with unregulated shaft speed have been connected during the experimental study. A three phase, 4 poles, 50Hz, 5.5 hp, 12.3A, 230V induction motor coupled with DC Shunt Motor was tested in the electrical machine laboratory with variable reactive loads. Based on this experimental study, it is possible to choose a reliable induction machines operated as a SEIG for unregulated renewable energy application in remote area or where grid is not available. Failure density function, cumulative failure distribution function, survivor function, hazard model, probability of success and probability of failure for reliability evaluation of the three phase induction motor operating as a SEIG have been presented graphically in this paper.

Keywords: Residual magnetism, magnetization curve, induction motor, self excited induction generator, probability distribution, Monte Carlo simulation.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2127

Authors: N. A. Salim, M. M. Othman, I. Musirin, M. S. Serwan

Abstract:

Hidden failure in a protection system has been recognized as one of the main reasons which may cause to a power system instability leading to a system cascading collapse. This paper presents a computationally systematic approach used to obtain the estimated average probability of a system cascading collapse by considering the effect of probability hidden failure in a protection system. The estimated average probability of a system cascading collapse is then used to determine the severe loading condition contributing to the higher risk of critical system cascading collapse. This information is essential to the system utility since it will assist the operator to determine the highest point of increased system loading condition prior to the event of critical system cascading collapse.

Keywords: Critical system cascading collapse, protection system hidden failure, severe loading condition.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1493

Authors: Andy Handouyahia, Tony Haddad, Frank Eaton

Abstract:

Recent quasi-experimental evaluation of the Canadian Active Labour Market Policies (ALMP) by Human Resources and Skills Development Canada (HRSDC) has provided an opportunity to examine alternative methods to estimating the incremental effects of Employment Benefits and Support Measures (EBSMs) on program participants. The focus of this paper is to assess the efficiency and robustness of inverse probability weighting (IPW) relative to kernel matching (KM) in the estimation of program effects. To accomplish this objective, the authors compare pairs of 1,080 estimates, along with their associated standard errors, to assess which type of estimate is generally more efficient and robust. In the interest of practicality, the authorsalso document the computationaltime it took to produce the IPW and KM estimates, respectively.

Keywords: Treatment effect, causal inference, observational studies, Propensity score based matching, Kernel Matching, Inverse Probability Weighting, Estimation methods for incremental effect.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 6926

Authors: Kong Fah Tee, Lutfor Rahman Khan, Hongshuang Li

Abstract:

An advanced Monte Carlo simulation method, called Subset Simulation (SS) for the time-dependent reliability prediction for underground pipelines has been presented in this paper. The SS can provide better resolution for low failure probability level with efficient investigating of rare failure events which are commonly encountered in pipeline engineering applications. In SS method, random samples leading to progressive failure are generated efficiently and used for computing probabilistic performance by statistical variables. SS gains its efficiency as small probability event as a product of a sequence of intermediate events with larger conditional probabilities. The efficiency of SS has been demonstrated by numerical studies and attention in this work is devoted to scrutinise the robustness of the SS application in pipe reliability assessment. It is hoped that the development work can promote the use of SS tools for uncertainty propagation in the decision-making process of underground pipelines network reliability prediction.

Keywords: Underground pipelines, Probability of failure, Reliability and Subset Simulation.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 3556

Authors: Biplab Bag

Abstract:

In this paper, the design of a coaxial feed single layer rectangular microstrip patch antenna for IEEE802.11b application is presented. The proposed antenna is designed by using substrate FR4_epoxy having permittivity of about 4.4 and tangent loss of 0.013. The characteristics of the substrate are designed and to evaluate the performance of modeled antenna using HFSS v.11 EM simulator, from Ansoft. The proposed antenna dual resonant frequency has been achieved in the band of 1.57GHz-1.68GHz (with BW 30 MHz) and 2.25 GHz -2.55GHz (with BW 40MHz). The simulation results with frequency response, radiation pattern and return loss, VSWR, Input Impedance are presented with appropriate table and graph.

Keywords: Microstrip, Radiation Pattern, Return Loss, Tangent Loss, VSWR.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 3046