Search results for: risk models

Authors: Pedro M. Abreu, Bruno R. Mendes

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The management of pharmacotherapy and the process of dispensing medicines is becoming critical in clinical pharmacy due to the increase of incidence and prevalence of chronic diseases, the complexity and customization of therapeutic regimens, the introduction of innovative and more expensive medicines, the unbalanced relation between expenditure and revenue as well as due to the lack of rationalization associated with medication use. For these reasons, co-payments emerged in Europe in the 70s and have been applied over the past few years in healthcare. Co-payments lead to a rationing and rationalization of user’s access under healthcare services and products, and simultaneously, to a qualification and improvement of the services and products for the end-user. This analysis, under hospital practices particularly and co-payment strategies in general, was carried out on all the European regions and identified four reference countries, that apply repeatedly this tool and with different approaches. The structure, content and adaptation of European co-payments were analyzed through 7 qualitative attributes and 19 performance indicators, and the results expressed in a scorecard, allowing to conclude that the German models (total score of 68,2% and 63,6% in both elected co-payments) can collect more compliance and effectiveness, the English models (total score of 50%) can be more accessible, and the French models (total score of 50%) can be more adequate to the socio-economic and legal framework. Other European models did not show the same quality and/or performance, so were not taken as a standard in the future design of co-payments strategies. In this sense, we can see in the co-payments a strategy not only to moderate the consumption of healthcare products and services, but especially to improve them, as well as a strategy to increment the value that the end-user assigns to these services and products, such as medicines.

Keywords: Clinical pharmacy, co-payments, healthcare, medicines.

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Authors: Angela Unna Chukwu, Samuel Oluwafemi Oyamakin

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We proposed a Hyperbolic Gompertz Growth Model (HGGM), which was developed by introducing a shape parameter (allometric). This was achieved by convoluting hyperbolic sine function on the intrinsic rate of growth in the classical gompertz growth equation. The resulting integral solution obtained deterministically was reprogrammed into a statistical model and used in modeling the height and diameter of Pines (Pinus caribaea). Its ability in model prediction was compared with the classical gompertz growth model, an approach which mimicked the natural variability of height/diameter increment with respect to age and therefore provides a more realistic height/diameter predictions using goodness of fit tests and model selection criteria. The Kolmogorov Smirnov test and Shapiro-Wilk test was also used to test the compliance of the error term to normality assumptions while the independence of the error term was confirmed using the runs test. The mean function of top height/Dbh over age using the two models under study predicted closely the observed values of top height/Dbh in the hyperbolic gompertz growth models better than the source model (classical gompertz growth model) while the results of R2, Adj. R2, MSE and AIC confirmed the predictive power of the Hyperbolic Gompertz growth models over its source model.

Keywords: Height, Dbh, forest, Pinus caribaea, hyperbolic, gompertz.

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Authors: Mustafa M. Donma, Orkide Donma

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Obesity and weight gain are associated with increased risk of developing cardiovascular diseases and the progression of liver fibrosis. Aspartate transaminase–to-platelet count ratio index (APRI) and fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) were primarily considered as the formulas capable of differentiating hepatitis from cirrhosis. However, to the best of our knowledge, their status in children is not clear. The aim of this study is to determine APRI and FIB-4 status in obese (OB) children and compare them with values found in children with normal body mass index (N-BMI). A total of 68 children examined in the outpatient clinics of the Pediatrics Department in Tekirdag Namik Kemal University Medical Faculty were included in the study. Two groups were constituted. In the first group, 35 children with N-BMI, whose age- and sex-dependent BMI indices vary between 15 and 85 percentiles, were evaluated. The second group comprised 33 OB children whose BMI percentile values were between 95 and 99. Anthropometric measurements and routine biochemical tests were performed. Using these parameters, values for the related indices, BMI, APRI, and FIB-4, were calculated. Appropriate statistical tests were used for the evaluation of the study data. The statistical significance degree was accepted as p < 0.05. In the OB group, values found for APRI and FIB-4 were higher than those calculated for the N-BMI group. However, there was no statistically significant difference between the N-BMI and OB groups in terms of APRI and FIB-4. A similar pattern was detected for triglyceride (TRG) values. The correlation coefficient and degree of significance between APRI and FIB-4 were r = 0.336 and p = 0.065 in the N-BMI group. On the other hand, they were r = 0.707 and p = 0.001 in the OB group. Associations of these two indices with TRG have shown that this parameter was strongly correlated (p < 0.001) both with APRI and FIB-4 in the OB group, whereas no correlation was calculated in children with N-BMI. TRG are associated with an increased risk of fatty liver, which can progress to severe clinical problems such as steatohepatitis, which can lead to liver fibrosis. TRG are also independent risk factors for cardiovascular disease. In conclusion, the lack of correlation between TRG and APRI as well as FIB-4 in children with N-BMI, along with the detection of strong correlations of TRG with these indices in OB children, was the indicator of the possible onset of the tendency towards the development of fatty liver in OB children. This finding also pointed out the potential risk for cardiovascular pathologies in OB children. The nature of the difference between APRI vs. FIB-4 correlations in N-BMI and OB groups (no correlation vs. high correlation), respectively, may be the indicator of the importance of involving age and alanine transaminase parameters in addition to AST and PLT in the formula designed for FIB-4.

Keywords: APRI, FIB-4, obesity, triglycerides.

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Authors: Yoonsuh Jung

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As DNA microarray data contain relatively small sample size compared to the number of genes, high dimensional models are often employed. In high dimensional models, the selection of tuning parameter (or, penalty parameter) is often one of the crucial parts of the modeling. Cross-validation is one of the most common methods for the tuning parameter selection, which selects a parameter value with the smallest cross-validated score. However, selecting a single value as an ‘optimal’ value for the parameter can be very unstable due to the sampling variation since the sample sizes of microarray data are often small. Our approach is to choose multiple candidates of tuning parameter first, then average the candidates with different weights depending on their performance. The additional step of estimating the weights and averaging the candidates rarely increase the computational cost, while it can considerably improve the traditional cross-validation. We show that the selected value from the suggested methods often lead to stable parameter selection as well as improved detection of significant genetic variables compared to the tradition cross-validation via real data and simulated data sets.

Keywords: Cross Validation, Parameter Averaging, Parameter Selection, Regularization Parameter Search.

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Authors: Porojan S., Sandu L., Topală F.

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Simulation of occlusal function during laboratory material-s testing becomes essential in predicting long-term performance before clinical usage. The aim of the study was to assess the influence of chamfer preparation depth on failure risk of heat pressed ceramic crowns with and without zirconia framework by means of finite element analysis. 3D models of maxillary central incisor, prepared for full ceramic crowns with different depths of the chamfer margin (between 0.8 and 1.2 mm) and 6-degree tapered walls together with the overlying crowns were generated using literature data (Fig. 1, 2). The crowns were designed with and without a zirconia framework with a thickness of 0.4 mm. For all preparations and crowns, stresses in the pressed ceramic crown, zirconia framework, pressed ceramic veneer, and dentin were evaluated separately. The highest stresses were registered in the dentin. The depth of the preparations had no significant influence on the stress values of the teeth and pressed ceramics for the studied cases, only for the zirconia framework. The zirconia framework decreases the stress values in the veneer.

Keywords: Finite element analysis, full ceramic crown, zirconia framework, stresses.

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Authors: L. Yettou

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In this study, the calculations of proton emission spectra produced by ⁶³Cu(n,xp) and ⁶⁵Cu(n,xp) reactions are used in the framework of preequilibrium models using the EMPIRE code and TALYS code. Exciton Model predidtions combined with the Kalbach angular distribution systematics and the Hybrid Monte Carlo Simulation (HMS) were used. The effects of levels densities and those of a-parameter have been investigated for our calculations. The comparison with experimental data shows clear improvement over the Exciton Model and HMS calculations.

Keywords: Preequilibrium models, level density, level density a-parameter, 63Cu(n, xp) and 65Cu(n, xp) reactions.

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Authors: I. V. Pinto, M. R. Sooriyarachchi

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It can be frequently observed that the data arising in our environment have a hierarchical or a nested structure attached with the data. Multilevel modelling is a modern approach to handle this kind of data. When multilevel modelling is combined with a binary response, the estimation methods get complex in nature and the usual techniques are derived from quasi-likelihood method. The estimation methods which are compared in this study are, marginal quasi-likelihood (order 1 & order 2) (MQL1, MQL2) and penalized quasi-likelihood (order 1 & order 2) (PQL1, PQL2). A statistical model is of no use if it does not reflect the given dataset. Therefore, checking the adequacy of the fitted model through a goodness-of-fit (GOF) test is an essential stage in any modelling procedure. However, prior to usage, it is also equally important to confirm that the GOF test performs well and is suitable for the given model. This study assesses the suitability of the GOF test developed for binary response multilevel models with respect to the method used in model estimation. An extensive set of simulations was conducted using MLwiN (v 2.19) with varying number of clusters, cluster sizes and intra cluster correlations. The test maintained the desirable Type-I error for models estimated using PQL2 and it failed for almost all the combinations of MQL. Power of the test was adequate for most of the combinations in all estimation methods except MQL1. Moreover, models were fitted using the four methods to a real-life dataset and performance of the test was compared for each model.

Keywords: Goodness-of-fit test, marginal quasi-likelihood, multilevel modelling, type-I error, penalized quasi-likelihood, power, quasi-likelihood.

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Authors: Hekmatpanah, M.

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Since the beginning of human history, human activities have caused many changes in the environment. Today, a particular attention should be paid to gaining knowledge about water quality of wetlands which are pristine natural environments rich in genetic reserves. If qualitative conditions of industrial areas (in terms of both physicochemical and biological conditions) are not addressed properly, they could cause disruption in natural ecosystems, especially in rivers. With regards to the quality of water resources, determination of pollutant sources plays a pivotal role in engineering projects as well as designing water quality control systems. Thus, using different methods such as flow duration curves, dischargepollution load model and frequency analysis by HYFA software package, risk of various industrial pollutants in international and ecologically important Gavkhoni wetland is analyzed. In this study, a station located at Varzaneh City is used as the last station on Zayanderud River, from where the river water is discharged into the wetland. Results showed that elements- concentrations often exceeded the allowed level and river water can endanger regional ecosystem. In addition, if the river discharge is managed on Q25 basis, this basis can lower concentrations of elements, keeping them within the normal level.

Keywords: Pollutants Risk, Industry, Flow Discharge, Management, Gavkhoni Wetland

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Authors: Rami Al-Ruzouq, Abdallah Al-Zoubi, Abdel-Rahman Abueladas, Petya Dimitrova

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Protection and proper management of archaeological heritage are an essential process of studying and interpreting the generations present and future. Protecting the archaeological heritage is based upon multidiscipline professional collaboration. This study aims to gather data by different sources (Photogrammetry and Geographic Information System (GIS)) integrated for the purpose of documenting one the of significant archeological sites (Ahl-Alkahf, Jordan). 3D modeling deals with the actual image of the features, shapes and texture to represent reality as realistically as possible by using texture. The 3D coordinates that result of the photogrammetric adjustment procedures are used to create 3D-models of the study area. Adding Textures to the 3D-models surfaces gives a 'real world' appearance to the displayed models. GIS system combined all data, including boundary maps, indicating the location of archeological sites, transportation layer, digital elevation model and orthoimages. For realistic representation of the study area, 3D - GIS model prepared, where efficient generation, management and visualization of such special data can be achieved.

Keywords: Archaeology, close range photogrammetry, ortho-photo, 3D-GIS

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Authors: Nader Ghareeb, R¨udiger Schmidt

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Minimizing the weight in flexible structures means reducing material and costs as well. However, these structures could become prone to vibrations. Attenuating these vibrations has become a pivotal engineering problem that shifted the focus of many research endeavors. One technique to do that is to design and implement an active control system. This system is mainly composed of a vibrating structure, a sensor to perceive the vibrations, an actuator to counteract the influence of disturbances, and finally a controller to generate the appropriate control signals. In this work, two different techniques are explored to create two different mathematical models of an active control system. The first model is a finite element model with a reduced number of nodes and it is called a super-element. The second model is in the form of state-space representation, i.e. a set of partial differential equations. The damping coefficients are calculated and incorporated into both models. The effectiveness of these models is demonstrated when the system is excited by its first natural frequency and an active control strategy is developed and implemented to attenuate the resulting vibrations. Results from both modeling techniques are presented and compared.

Keywords: Finite element analysis, super-element, state-space model.

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Authors: Michele Sinico

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The present research investigates the effect of symmetry on the perception of happiness and boredom in design products. Three experiments were carried out in order to verify the degree of the visual expressive value on different models of bookcases, wall clocks, and chairs. 60 participants directly indicated the degree of happiness and boredom using 7-point rating scales. The findings show that the participants acknowledged a different value of expressive quality in the different product models. Results show also that symmetry is not a significant constraint for an emotional design project.

Keywords: Product experience, emotional design, symmetry, expressive qualities.

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Authors: Bernard Kumi-Boateng, Issaka Yakubu

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Forest fire, which is, an uncontrolled fire occurring in nature has become a major concern for the Forestry Commission of Ghana (FCG). The forest fires in Ghana usually result in massive destruction and take a long time for the firefighting crews to gain control over the situation. In order to assess the effect of forest fire at local scale, it is important to consider the role fire plays in vegetation composition, biodiversity, soil erosion, and the hydrological cycle. The occurrence, frequency and behaviour of forest fires vary over time and space, primarily as a result of the complicated influences of changes in land use, vegetation composition, fire suppression efforts, and other indigenous factors. One of the forest zones in Ghana with a high level of vegetation stress is the Goaso forest area. The area has experienced changes in its traditional land use such as hunting, charcoal production, inefficient logging practices and rural abandonment patterns. These factors which were identified as major causes of forest fire, have recently modified the incidence of fire in the Goaso area. In spite of the incidence of forest fires in the Goaso forest area, most of the forest services do not provide a cartographic representation of the burned areas. This has resulted in significant amount of information being required by the firefighting unit of the FCG to understand fire risk factors and its spatial effects. This study uses Remote Sensing and Geographic Information System techniques to develop a fire risk hazard model using the Goaso Forest Area (GFA) as a case study. From the results of the study, natural forest, agricultural lands and plantation cover types were identified as the major fuel contributing loads. However, water bodies, roads and settlements were identified as minor fuel contributing loads. Based on the major and minor fuel contributing loads, a forest fire risk hazard model with a reasonable accuracy has been developed for the GFA to assist decision making.

Keywords: Forest risk, GIS, remote sensing, Goaso.

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Authors: Antonio Natali, Ambra Molesini

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In modern distributed software systems, the issue of communication among composing parts represents a critical point, but the idea of extending conventional programming languages with general purpose communication constructs seems difficult to realize. As a consequence, there is a (growing) gap between the abstraction level required by distributed applications and the concepts provided by platforms that enable communication. This work intends to discuss how the Model Driven Software Development approach can be considered as a mature technology to generate in automatic way the schematic part of applications related to communication, by providing at the same time high level specialized languages useful in all the phases of software production. To achieve the goal, a stack of languages (meta-meta¬models) has been introduced in order to describe – at different levels of abstraction – the collaborative behavior of generic entities in terms of communication actions related to a taxonomy of messages. Finally, the generation of platforms for communication is viewed as a form of specification of language semantics, that provides executable models of applications together with model-checking supports and effective runtime environments.

Keywords: Interactions, specific languages, meta-models, model driven development.

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Authors: Pavel Zikmund, Robert Popela

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Extreme formation is a theoretical concept of selfsustain flight when a big airliner is followed by a small UAV glider flying in the airliner wake vortex. The paper presents results of a climb analysis with the goal to lift the gliding UAV to airliners cruise altitude. Wake vortex models, the UAV drag polar and basic parameters and airliner’s climb profile are introduced at first. Afterwards, flight performance of the UAV in a wake vortex is evaluated by analytical methods. Time history of optimal distance between an airliner and the UAV during a climb is determined. The results are encouraging. Therefore available UAV drag margin for electricity generation is figured out for different vortex models.

Keywords: Flight in formation, self-sustained flight, UAV, wake vortex.

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Authors: Yan Lyu, Yiqun Pan, Zhizhong Huang

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In the design stage of a new building, the energy model of this building is often required for the analysis of the performance on energy efficiency. In practice, a certain degree of geometric simplification should be done in the establishment of building energy models, since the detailed geometric features of a real building are hard to be described perfectly in most energy simulation engine, such as ESP-r, eQuest or EnergyPlus. Actually, the detailed description is not necessary when the result with extremely high accuracy is not demanded. Therefore, this paper analyzed the relationship between the error of the simulation result from building energy models and the geometric simplification of the models. Finally, the following two parameters are selected as the indices to characterize the geometric feature of in building energy simulation: the southward projected area and total side surface area of the building. Based on the parameterization method, the simplification from an arbitrary column building to a typical shape (a cuboid) building can be made for energy modeling. The result in this study indicates that no more than 7% prediction error of annual cooling/heating load will be caused by the geometric simplification for those buildings with the ratio of southward projection length to total perimeter of the bottom of 0.25~0.35, which means this method is applicable for building performance simulation.

Keywords: building energy model, simulation, geometric simplification, design, regression

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Authors: Mohamed A. Hammad, Dzul Azri Mohamed Noor, Syed Azhar Syed Sulaiman, Ahmed A. Khamis, Abeer Kharshid, Nor Azizah Aziz

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The effect of statins dose intensity (SDI) on glycemic control in patients with existing diabetes is unclear. Also, there are many contradictory findings were reported in the literature; thus, it is limiting the possibility to draw conclusions. This project was designed to compare the effect of SDI on glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c%) control in outpatients with Type 2 diabetes in the endocrine clinic at Hospital Pulau Pinang, Malaysia, between July 2015 and August 2016. A prospective cohort study was conducted, where records of 345 patients with Type 2 diabetes (Moderate-SDI group 289 patients and high-SDI cohort 56 patients) were reviewed to identify demographics and laboratory tests. The target of glycemic control (HbA1c < 7% for patient < 65 years, and < 8% for patient ≥ 65 years) was estimated, and the results were presented as descriptive statistics. From 289 moderate-SDI cohorts with a mean age of 57.3 ± 12.4 years, only 86 (29.8%) cases were shown to have controlled glycemia, while there were 203 (70.2%) cases with uncontrolled glycemia with confidence interval (CI) of 95% (6.2–10.8). On the other hand, the high-SDI group of 56 patients with Type 2 diabetes with a mean age 57.7±12.4 years is distributed among 11 (19.6%) patients with controlled diabetes, and 45 (80.4%) of them had uncontrolled glycemia, CI: 95% (7.1–11.9). The study has demonstrated that the relative risk (RR) of uncontrolled glycemia in patients with Type 2 diabetes that used high-SDI is 1.15, and the excessive relative risk (ERR) is 15%. The absolute risk (AR) is 10.2%, and the number needed to harm (NNH) is 10. Outpatients with Type 2 diabetes who use high-SDI of statin have a higher risk of uncontrolled glycemia than outpatients who had been treated with a moderate-SDI.

Keywords: Cohort study, diabetes control, dose intensity, HbA1c, Malaysia, statin, Type 2 diabetes mellitus, uncontrolled glycemia.

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Authors: Gilberto Gonzalez-A, Dunia Nuñez-P

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Bond graph models of an electrical transformer including the nonlinear saturation are presented. The transformer using electrical and magnetic circuits are modelled. These models determine the relation between self and mutual inductances, and the leakage and magnetizing inductances of power transformers with two windings using the properties of a bond graph. The equivalence between electrical and magnetic variables is given. The modelling and analysis using this methodology to three phase power transformers can be extended.

Keywords: Bond graph, electrical transformer, magnetic circuits, nonlinear saturation.

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Authors: M. Centra

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Due to the liberalization of countless electricity markets, load forecasting has become crucial to all public utilities for which electricity is a strategic variable. With the goal of contributing to the forecasting process inside public utilities, this paper addresses the issue of applying the Holt-Winters exponential smoothing technique and the time series analysis for forecasting the hourly electricity load curve of the Italian railways. The results of the analysis confirm the accuracy of the two models and therefore the relevance of forecasting inside public utilities.

Keywords: ARIMA models, Exponential smoothing, Electricity, Load forecasting, Rail transportation.

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Authors: A. A. Hekmatzadeh, A. Karimi-Jashani, N. Talebbeydokhti

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The rate of nitrate adsorption by a nitrate selective ion exchange resin was investigated in a well-stirred batch experiments. The kinetic experimental data were simulated with diffusion models including external mass transfer, particle diffusion and chemical adsorption. Particle pore volume diffusion and particle surface diffusion were taken into consideration separately and simultaneously in the modeling. The model equations were solved numerically using the Crank-Nicholson scheme. An optimization technique was employed to optimize the model parameters. All nitrate concentration decay data were well described with the all diffusion models. The results indicated that the kinetic process is initially controlled by external mass transfer and then by particle diffusion. The external mass transfer coefficient and the coefficients of pore volume diffusion and surface diffusion in all experiments were close to each other with the average value of 8.3×10-3 cm/S for external mass transfer coefficient. In addition, the models are more sensitive to the mass transfer coefficient in comparison with particle diffusion. Moreover, it seems that surface diffusion is the dominant particle diffusion in comparison with pore volume diffusion.

Keywords: External mass transfer, pore volume diffusion, surface diffusion, mass action law isotherm.

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Authors: Jana Chvalkovska, Petr Jansky, Petr Teply

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The impact assessment in its various forms has recently become a very important part of policy-making and legislation in many different countries. Regulatory impact assessment (RIA) is yet another set of analytical methods deployed in the legislation of the European Union, of many developed countries as well as in many developing ones such as Mexico, Malaysia and Philippines. The aim of this paper is to provide a theoretical background for economic models in regulatory impact assessment and an overview of their application especially on the financial market in the Czech Republic. We found out an inadequate application of these models, what makes room for further research in this field.

Keywords: regulatory impact assessment, RIA, impact evaluation, building societies, Czech Republic

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Authors: Worachat Wannawong, Usa W. Humphries, Prungchan Wongwises, Suphat Vongvisessomjai, Wiriya Lueangaram

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A numerical analysis of wave and hydrodynamic models is used to investigate the influence of WAve and Storm Surge (WASS) in the regional and coastal zones. The numerical analyzed system consists of the WAve Model Cycle 4 (WAMC4) and the Princeton Ocean Model (POM) which used to solve the energy balance and primitive equations respectively. The results of both models presented the incorporated surface wave in the regional zone affected the coastal storm surge zone. Specifically, the results indicated that the WASS generally under the approximation is not only the peak surge but also the coastal water level drop which can also cause substantial impact on the coastal environment. The wave–induced surface stress affected the storm surge can significantly improve storm surge prediction. Finally, the calibration of wave module according to the minimum error of the significant wave height (Hs) is not necessarily result in the optimum wave module in the WASS analyzed system for the WASS prediction.

Keywords: energy balance equation, numerical analysis, primitiveequation, storm surge, wave.

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Authors: Mohamed Amine Ben Henni, Taher Hassaine Daouadji, Boussad Abbes, Yu Ming Li, Fazilay Abbes

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The reinforcement and repair of concrete structures by bonding composite materials have become relatively common operations. Different types of composite materials can be used: carbon fiber reinforced polymer (CFRP), glass fiber reinforced polymer (GFRP) as well as functionally graded material (FGM). The development of analytical and numerical models describing the mechanical behavior of structures in civil engineering reinforced by composite materials is necessary. These models will enable engineers to select, design, and size adequate reinforcements for the various types of damaged structures. This study focuses on the free vibration behavior of orthotropic laminated composite plates using a refined shear deformation theory. In these models, the distribution of transverse shear stresses is considered as parabolic satisfying the zero-shear stress condition on the top and bottom surfaces of the plates without using shear correction factors. In this analysis, the equation of motion for simply supported thick laminated rectangular plates is obtained by using the Hamilton’s principle. The accuracy of the developed model is demonstrated by comparing our results with solutions derived from other higher order models and with data found in the literature. Besides, a finite-element analysis is used to calculate the natural frequencies of laminated composite plates and is compared with those obtained by the analytical approach.

Keywords: Composites materials, laminated composite plate, shear deformation theory of plates, finite element analysis, free vibration.

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Authors: Jimeng Shi, Mahek Jain, Giri Narasimhan

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Time Series Forecasting (TSF) is used to predict the target variables at a future time point based on the learning from previous time points. To keep the problem tractable, learning methods use data from a fixed length window in the past as an explicit input. In this paper, we study how the performance of predictive models change as a function of different look-back window sizes and different amounts of time to predict into the future. We also consider the performance of the recent attention-based transformer models, which had good success in the image processing and natural language processing domains. In all, we compare four different deep learning methods (Recurrent Neural Network (RNN), Long Short-term Memory (LSTM), Gated Recurrent Units (GRU), and Transformer) along with a baseline method. The dataset (hourly) we used is the Beijing Air Quality Dataset from the website of University of California, Irvine (UCI), which includes a multivariate time series of many factors measured on an hourly basis for a period of 5 years (2010-14). For each model, we also report on the relationship between the performance and the look-back window sizes and the number of predicted time points into the future. Our experiments suggest that Transformer models have the best performance with the lowest Mean   Absolute Errors (MAE = 14.599, 23.273) and Root Mean Square Errors (RSME = 23.573, 38.131) for most of our single-step and multi-steps predictions. The best size for the look-back window to predict 1 hour into the future appears to be one day, while 2 or 4 days perform the best to predict 3 hours into the future.

Keywords: Air quality prediction, deep learning algorithms, time series forecasting, look-back window.

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Authors: S. Jarernprasert, E. Bazan-Zurita, P. C. Rizzo

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Currently, seismic probabilistic risk assessments (SPRA) for nuclear facilities use In-Structure Response Spectra (ISRS) in the calculation of fragilities for systems and components. ISRS are calculated via dynamic analyses of the host building subjected to two orthogonal components of horizontal ground motion. Each component is defined as the median motion in any horizontal direction. Structural engineers applied the components along selected X and Y Cartesian axes. The ISRS at different locations in the building are also calculated in the X and Y directions. The choice of the directions of X and Y are not specified by the ground motion model with respect to geographic coordinates, and are rather arbitrarily selected by the structural engineer. Normally, X and Y coincide with the “principal” axes of the building, in the understanding that this practice is generally conservative. For SPRA purposes, however, it is desirable to remove any conservatism in the estimates of median ISRS. This paper examines the effects of the direction of horizontal seismic motion on the ISRS on typical nuclear structure. We also evaluate the variability of ISRS calculated along different horizontal directions. Our results indicate that some central measures of the ISRS provide robust estimates that are practically independent of the selection of the directions of the horizontal Cartesian axes.

Keywords: Seismic, Directionality, In-Structure Response Spectra, Probabilistic Risk Assessment.

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Authors: Luciana Abednego, Cecilia Nugraheni

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There are many approaches proposed for solving Sudoku puzzles. One of them is by modelling the puzzles as block world problems. There have been three model for Sudoku solvers based on this approach. Each model expresses Sudoku solver as a parameterized multi agent systems. In this work, we propose a new model which is an improvement over the existing models. This paper presents the development of a Sudoku solver that implements all the proposed models. Some experiments have been conducted to determine the performance of each model.

Keywords: Sudoku puzzle, Sudoku solver, block world problem, parameterized multi agent systems.

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Authors: May-Ling Tan, Yi Su, Chi-Wan Lim, Liang Zhong, Ru-San Tan

Abstract:

This paper describes an automatic algorithm to restore the shape of three-dimensional (3D) left ventricle (LV) models created from magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) data using a geometry-driven optimization approach. Our basic premise is to restore the LV shape such that the LV epicardial surface is smooth after the restoration. A geometrical measure known as the Minimum Principle Curvature (κ2) is used to assess the smoothness of the LV. This measure is used to construct the objective function of a two-step optimization process. The objective of the optimization is to achieve a smooth epicardial shape by iterative in-plane translation of the MRI slices. Quantitatively, this yields a minimum sum in terms of the magnitude of κ 2, when κ2 is negative. A limited memory quasi-Newton algorithm, L-BFGS-B, is used to solve the optimization problem. We tested our algorithm on an in vitro theoretical LV model and 10 in vivo patient-specific models which contain significant motion artifacts. The results show that our method is able to automatically restore the shape of LV models back to smoothness without altering the general shape of the model. The magnitudes of in-plane translations are also consistent with existing registration techniques and experimental findings.

Keywords: Magnetic Resonance Imaging, Left Ventricle, ShapeRestoration, Principle Curvature, Optimization

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Authors: Shamsuddin Ahmed, M. G. M. Khan, Biman Prasad, Avlin Prasad

Abstract:

The focus of this paper is to construct daily time series exchange rate forecast models of Samoan Tala/USD and Tala/AUD during the year 2008 to 2012 with neural network The performance of the models was measured by using varies error functions such as Root Square mean error (RSME), Mean absolute error (MAE), and Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). Our empirical findings suggest that AR (1) model is an effective tool to forecast the Tala/USD and Tala/AUD.

Keywords: Neural Network Forecasting Model, Autoregressive time series, Exchange rate, Tala/AUD, winters model.

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Authors: Shaneil Taylor

Abstract:

Gender-based violence is a reflection of the inequalities that are associated within a society between the men and women that affects the health, dignity, security and autonomy of its victims. There are various determinants that contribute to the health risk of young women who have experienced sexual violence, in countries that have a high prevalence rate for HIV. For instance, in South Africa, where the highest prevalence rate for HIV is among young women, their susceptibility to the virus has been increased by sexual violence and cultural inequalities. Therefore, this study is a review of literature that explores how gender-based violence increases the possibility for HIV/AIDS among young women in South Africa.

Keywords: Gender based violence, HIV/AIDS transmission, young women, Risky sexual behavior.

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Authors: Miloš Šeda

Abstract:

In this paper, mathematical models for permutation flow shop scheduling and job shop scheduling problems are proposed. The first problem is based on a mixed integer programming model. As the problem is NP-complete, this model can only be used for smaller instances where an optimal solution can be computed. For large instances, another model is proposed which is suitable for solving the problem by stochastic heuristic methods. For the job shop scheduling problem, a mathematical model and its main representation schemes are presented.

Keywords: Flow shop, job shop, mixed integer model, representation scheme.

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Authors: A. Kahil, A. Nekmouche, N. Khelil, I. Hamadou, M. Hamizi, Ne. Hannachi

Abstract:

The objective of this work is to study the influence of the nonlinear behavior models of the concrete (concrete_BAEL and concrete_UNI) as well as the confinement brought by the transverse reinforcement on the seismic response of reinforced concrete frame (RC/frame). These models as well as the confinement are integrated in the Cast3m finite element calculation code. The consideration of confinement (TAC, taking into account the confinement) provided by the transverse reinforcement and the non-consideration of confinement (without consideration of containment, WCC) in the presence and absence of a vertical load is studied. The application was made on a reinforced concrete frame (RC/frame) with 3 levels and 2 spans. The results show that on the one hand, the concrete_BAEL model slightly underestimates the resistance of the RC/frame in the plastic field, whereas the concrete_uni model presents the best results compared to the simplified model "concrete_BAEL", on the other hand, for the concrete-uni model, taking into account the confinement has no influence on the behavior of the RC/frame under imposed displacement up to a vertical load of 500 KN.

Keywords: Reinforced concrete, nonlinear calculation, behavior laws, fiber model confinement, numerical simulation.

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