Search results for: InverseKinematics Error Model
Commenced in January 2007
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Edition: International
Paper Count: 8209

Search results for: InverseKinematics Error Model

7489 Variable Rough Set Model and Its Knowledge Reduction for Incomplete and Fuzzy Decision Information Systems

Authors: Da-kuan Wei, Xian-zhong Zhou, Dong-jun Xin, Zhi-wei Chen

Abstract:

The information systems with incomplete attribute values and fuzzy decisions commonly exist in practical problems. On the base of the notion of variable precision rough set model for incomplete information system and the rough set model for incomplete and fuzzy decision information system, the variable rough set model for incomplete and fuzzy decision information system is constructed, which is the generalization of the variable precision rough set model for incomplete information system and that of rough set model for incomplete and fuzzy decision information system. The knowledge reduction and heuristic algorithm, built on the method and theory of precision reduction, are proposed.

Keywords: Rough set, Incomplete and fuzzy decision information system, Limited valued tolerance relation, Knowledge reduction, Variable rough set model

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7488 Therapeutic Product Preparation Bioprocess Modeling

Authors: Mihai Caramihai, Irina Severin, Ana Aurelia Chirvase, Adrian Onu, Cristina Tanase, Camelia Ungureanu

Abstract:

An immunomodulator bioproduct is prepared in a batch bioprocess with a modified bacterium Pseudomonas aeruginosa. The bioprocess is performed in 100 L Bioengineering bioreactor with 42 L cultivation medium made of peptone, meat extract and sodium chloride. The optimal bioprocess parameters were determined: temperature – 37 0C, agitation speed - 300 rpm, aeration rate – 40 L/min, pressure – 0.5 bar, Dow Corning Antifoam M-max. 4 % of the medium volume, duration - 6 hours. This kind of bioprocesses are appreciated as difficult to control because their dynamic behavior is highly nonlinear and time varying. The aim of the paper is to present (by comparison) different models based on experimental data. The analysis criteria were modeling error and convergence rate. The estimated values and the modeling analysis were done by using the Table Curve 2D. The preliminary conclusions indicate Andrews-s model with a maximum specific growth rate of the bacterium in the range of 0.8 h-1.

Keywords: bioprocess modeling, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, kinetic models,

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7487 DMC with Adaptive Weighted Output

Authors: Ahmed Abbas, M.R. M Rizk, Mohamed El-Sayed

Abstract:

This paper presents a new adaptive DMC controller that improves the controller performance in case of plant-model mismatch. The new controller monitors the plant measured output, compares it with the model output and calculates weights applied to the controller move. Simulations show that the new controller can help improve control performance and avoid instability in case of severe model mismatches.

Keywords: Adaptive control, dynamic matrix control, DMC, model predictive control

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7486 Segmentation of Piecewise Polynomial Regression Model by Using Reversible Jump MCMC Algorithm

Authors: Suparman

Abstract:

Piecewise polynomial regression model is very flexible model for modeling the data. If the piecewise polynomial regression model is matched against the data, its parameters are not generally known. This paper studies the parameter estimation problem of piecewise polynomial regression model. The method which is used to estimate the parameters of the piecewise polynomial regression model is Bayesian method. Unfortunately, the Bayes estimator cannot be found analytically. Reversible jump MCMC algorithm is proposed to solve this problem. Reversible jump MCMC algorithm generates the Markov chain that converges to the limit distribution of the posterior distribution of piecewise polynomial regression model parameter. The resulting Markov chain is used to calculate the Bayes estimator for the parameters of piecewise polynomial regression model.

Keywords: Piecewise, Bayesian, reversible jump MCMC, segmentation.

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7485 Symmetrical In-Plane Resonant Gyroscope with Decoupled Modes

Authors: Shady Sayed, Samer Wagdy, Ahmed Badawy, Moutaz M. Hegaze

Abstract:

A symmetrical single mass resonant gyroscope is discussed in this paper. The symmetrical design allows matched resonant frequencies for driving and sensing vibration modes, which leads to amplifying the sensitivity of the gyroscope by the mechanical quality factor of the sense mode. It also achieves decoupled vibration modes for getting a low zero-rate output shift and more stable operation environment. A new suspension beams design is developed to get a symmetrical gyroscope with matched and decoupled modes at the same time. Finite element simulations are performed using ANSYS software package to verify the theoretical calculations. The gyroscope is fabricated from aluminum alloy 2024 substrate, the measured drive and sense resonant frequencies of the fabricated model are matched and equal 81.4 Hz with 5.7% error from the simulation results.

Keywords: Decoupled mode shapes, resonant sensor, symmetrical gyroscope, finite element simulation.

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7484 Model-Based Software Regression Test Suite Reduction

Authors: Shiwei Deng, Yang Bao

Abstract:

In this paper, we present a model-based regression test suite reducing approach that uses EFSM model dependence analysis and probability-driven greedy algorithm to reduce software regression test suites. The approach automatically identifies the difference between the original model and the modified model as a set of elementary model modifications. The EFSM dependence analysis is performed for each elementary modification to reduce the regression test suite, and then the probability-driven greedy algorithm is adopted to select the minimum set of test cases from the reduced regression test suite that cover all interaction patterns. Our initial experience shows that the approach may significantly reduce the size of regression test suites.

Keywords: Dependence analysis, EFSM model, greedy algorithm, regression test.

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7483 Model of the Increasing the Capacity of the Train and Railway Track by Using the New Type of Wagon

Authors: Martin Kendra, Jaroslav Mašek, Juraj Čamaj, Martin Búda

Abstract:

The paper deals with possibilities of increase train capacity by using a new type of railway wagon. In the first part is created a mathematical model to calculate the capacity of the train. The model is based on the main limiting parameters of the train - maximum number of axles per train, maximum gross weight of train, maximum length of train and number of TEUs per one wagon. In the second part is the model applied to four different model trains with different composition of the train set and three different average weights of TEU and a train consisting of a new type of wagons. The result is to identify where the carrying capacity of the original trains is higher, respectively less than a capacity of train consisting of a new type of wagons.

Keywords: Loading units, theoretical capacity model, train capacity, wagon for intermodal transport.

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7482 Modeling and Simulation Methods Using MATLAB/Simulink

Authors: Jamuna Konda, Umamaheswara Reddy Karumuri, Sriramya Muthugi, Varun Pishati, Ravi Shakya,

Abstract:

This paper investigates the challenges involved in mathematical modeling of plant simulation models ensuring the performance of the plant models much closer to the real time physical model. The paper includes the analysis performed and investigation on different methods of modeling, design and development for plant model. Issues which impact the design time, model accuracy as real time model, tool dependence are analyzed. The real time hardware plant would be a combination of multiple physical models. It is more challenging to test the complete system with all possible test scenarios. There are possibilities of failure or damage of the system due to any unwanted test execution on real time.

Keywords: Model Based Design, MATLAB, Simulink, Stateflow, plant model, real time model, real-time workshop, target language compiler.

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7481 BER Performance of NLOS Underwater Wireless Optical Communication with Multiple Scattering

Authors: V. K. Jagadeesh, K. V. Naveen, P. Muthuchidambaranathan

Abstract:

Recently, there is a lot of interest in the field of under water optical wireless communication for short range because of its high bandwidth. But in most of the previous works line of sight propagation or single scattering of photons only considered. In practical case this is not applicable because of beam blockage in underwater and multiple scattering also occurred during the photons propagation through water. In this paper we consider a non-line of sight underwater wireless optical communication system with multiple scattering and examine the performance of the system using monte carlo simulation. The distribution scattering angle of photons are modeled by Henyey-Greenstein method. The average bit error rate is calculated using on-off keying modulation for different water types.

Keywords: Non line of sight under Water optical wireless communication, Henyey-Greenstein model, Multiple scattering, Monte-Carlo simulation.

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7480 Development of a Model for the Comprehensive Analysis and Evaluation of Service Productivity

Authors: A. Petz, S. Duckwitz, C. Schmalz, S. Meyer, S. Mütze-Niewöhner, C.M. Schlick

Abstract:

Although services play a crucial role in economy, service did not gain as much importance as productivity management in manufacturing. This paper presents key findings from literature and practice. Based on an initial definition of complex services, seven productivity concepts are briefly presented and assessed by relevant, complex service specific criteria. Following the findings a complex service productivity model is proposed. The novel model comprises of all specific dimensions of service provision from both, the provider-s as well as costumer-s perspective. A clear assignment of identified value drivers and relationships between them is presented. In order to verify the conceptual service productivity model a case study from a project engineering department of a chemical plant development and construction company is presented.

Keywords: assessment model, complex services, service productivity model, value driver.

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7479 A Mixed Integer Linear Programming Model for Flexible Job Shop Scheduling Problem

Authors: Mohsen Ziaee

Abstract:

In this paper, a mixed integer linear programming (MILP) model is presented to solve the flexible job shop scheduling problem (FJSP). This problem is one of the hardest combinatorial problems. The objective considered is the minimization of the makespan. The computational results of the proposed MILP model were compared with those of the best known mathematical model in the literature in terms of the computational time. The results show that our model has better performance with respect to all the considered performance measures including relative percentage deviation (RPD) value, number of constraints, and total number of variables. By this improved mathematical model, larger FJS problems can be optimally solved in reasonable time, and therefore, the model would be a better tool for the performance evaluation of the approximation algorithms developed for the problem.

Keywords: Scheduling, flexible job shop, makespan, mixed integer linear programming.

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7478 A Multiclass BCMP Queueing Modeling and Simulation-Based Road Traffic Flow Analysis

Authors: Jouhra Dad, Mohammed Ouali, Yahia Lebbah

Abstract:

Urban road network traffic has become one of the most studied research topics in the last decades. This is mainly due to the enlargement of the cities and the growing number of motor vehicles traveling in this road network. One of the most sensitive problems is to verify if the network is congestion-free. Another related problem is the automatic reconfiguration of the network without building new roads to alleviate congestions. These problems require an accurate model of the traffic to determine the steady state of the system. An alternative is to simulate the traffic to see if there are congestions and when and where they occur. One key issue is to find an adequate model for road intersections. Once the model established, either a large scale model is built or the intersection is represented by its performance measures and simulation for analysis. In both cases, it is important to seek the queueing model to represent the road intersection. In this paper, we propose to model the road intersection as a BCMP queueing network and we compare this analytical model against a simulation model for validation.

Keywords: Queueing theory, transportation systems, BCMPqueueing network, performance measures, modeling, simulation

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7477 An Automatic Model Transformation Methodology Based on Semantic and Syntactic Comparisons and the Granularity Issue Involved

Authors: Tiexin Wang, Sebastien Truptil, Frederick Benaben

Abstract:

Model transformation, as a pivotal aspect of Modeldriven engineering, attracts more and more attentions both from researchers and practitioners. Many domains (enterprise engineering, software engineering, knowledge engineering, etc.) use model transformation principles and practices to serve to their domain specific problems; furthermore, model transformation could also be used to fulfill the gap between different domains: by sharing and exchanging knowledge. Since model transformation has been widely used, there comes new requirement on it: effectively and efficiently define the transformation process and reduce manual effort that involved in. This paper presents an automatic model transformation methodology based on semantic and syntactic comparisons, and focuses particularly on granularity issue that existed in transformation process. Comparing to the traditional model transformation methodologies, this methodology serves to a general purpose: crossdomain methodology. Semantic and syntactic checking measurements are combined into a refined transformation process, which solves the granularity issue. Moreover, semantic and syntactic comparisons are supported by software tool; manual effort is replaced in this way.

Keywords: Automatic model transformation, granularity issue, model-driven engineering, semantic and syntactic comparisons.

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7476 Capacity of Overloaded DS-CDMA System on Rayleigh Fading Channel with Timing Error

Authors: Preetam Kumar

Abstract:

The number of users supported in a DS-CDMA cellular system is typically less than spreading factor (N), and the system is said to be underloaded. Overloading is a technique to accommodate more number of users than the spreading factor N. In O/O overloading scheme, the first set is assigned to the N synchronous users and the second set is assigned to the additional synchronous users. An iterative multistage soft decision interference cancellation (SDIC) receiver is used to remove high level of interference between the two sets. Performance is evaluated in terms of the maximum number acceptable users so that the system performance is degraded slightly compared to the single user performance at a specified BER. In this paper, the capacity of CDMA based O/O overloading scheme is evaluated with SDIC receiver. It is observed that O/O scheme using orthogonal Gold codes provides 25% channel overloading (N=64) for synchronous DS-CDMA system on an AWGN channel in the uplink at a BER of 1e-5.For a Rayleigh faded channel, the critical capacity is 40% at a BER of 5e-5 assuming synchronous users. But in practical systems, perfect chip timing is very difficult to maintain in the uplink.. We have shown that the overloading performance reduces to 11% for a timing synchronization error of 0.02Tc for a BER of 1e-5.

Keywords: DS-CDMA, Interference Cancellation, MultiuserDetection, Orthogonal codes, Overloading.

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7475 BTG-BIBA: A Flexibility-Enhanced Biba Model Using BTG Strategies for Operating System

Authors: Gang Liu, Can Wang, Runnan Zhang, Quan Wang, Huimin Song, Shaomin Ji

Abstract:

Biba model can protect information integrity but might deny various non-malicious access requests of the subjects, thereby decreasing the availability in the system. Therefore, a mechanism that allows exceptional access control is needed. Break the Glass (BTG) strategies refer an efficient means for extending the access rights of users in exceptional cases. These strategies help to prevent a system from stagnation. An approach is presented in this work for integrating Break the Glass strategies into the Biba model. This research proposes a model, BTG-Biba, which provides both an original Biba model used in normal situations and a mechanism used in emergency situations. The proposed model is context aware, can implement a fine-grained type of access control and primarily solves cross-domain access problems. Finally, the flexibility and availability improvement with the use of the proposed model is illustrated.

Keywords: Biba model, break the glass, context, cross-domain, fine-grained.

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7474 A Fuzzy Mixed Integer Multi-Scenario Portfolio Optimization Model

Authors: M. S. Osman, A. A. Tharwat, I. A. El-Khodary, A. G. Chalabi

Abstract:

In this paper, we propose a multiple objective optimization model with respect to portfolio selection problem for investors looking forward to diversify their equity investments in a number of equity markets. Based on Markowitz-s M-V model we developed a Fuzzy Mixed Integer Multi-Objective Nonlinear Programming Problem (FMIMONLP) to maximize the investors- future gains on equity markets, reach the optimal proportion of the budget to be invested in different equities. A numerical example with a comprehensive analysis on artificial data from several equity markets is presented in order to illustrate the proposed model and its solution method. The model performed well compared with the deterministic version of the model.

Keywords: Equity Markets, Future Scenarios, PortfolioSelection, Multiple Criteria Fuzzy Optimization

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7473 Building the Reliability Prediction Model of Component-Based Software Architectures

Authors: Pham Thanh Trung, Huynh Quyet Thang

Abstract:

Reliability is one of the most important quality attributes of software. Based on the approach of Reussner and the approach of Cheung, we proposed the reliability prediction model of component-based software architectures. Also, the value of the model is shown through the experimental evaluation on a web server system.

Keywords: component-based architecture, reliability prediction model, software reliability engineering.

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7472 An E-Government Implementation Model for Peruvian State Companies Based on COBIT 5.0: Definition and Goals of the Model

Authors: M. Bruzza, M. Tupia, F. Rodríguez

Abstract:

As part of the regulatory compliance process and the streamlining of public administration, the Peruvian government has implemented the National E-Government Plan in all state institutions with the aim of providing citizens with solid services based on the use of Information and Communications Technologies (ICT). As part of the regulations, the requisites to be met by public institutions have been submitted. However, the lack of an implementation model was detected, one that can serve as a guide to such institutions in order to materialize the organizational and technological structures needed, which allow them to provide the required digital services. This paper develops an implementation model of electronic government (e-government) for Peru’s state institutions, in compliance with current regulations based on a COBIT 5.0 framework. Furthermore, the paper introduces phase 1 of this model: business and IT goals, the goals cascade and the future model of processes.

Keywords: E-government, implementation, model, COBIT 5.0, digital services, u-government, m-government.

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7471 Stability Analysis of Mutualism Population Model with Time Delay

Authors: Rusliza Ahmad, Harun Budin

Abstract:

This paper studies the effect of time delay on stability of mutualism population model with limited resources for both species. First, the stability of the model without time delay is analyzed. The model is then improved by considering a time delay in the mechanism of the growth rate of the population. We analyze the effect of time delay on the stability of the stable equilibrium point. Result showed that the time delay can induce instability of the stable equilibrium point, bifurcation and stability switches.

Keywords: Bifurcation, Delay margin, Mutualism population model, Time delay

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7470 Fuzzy PID Controller with Coupled Rules for a Nonlinear Quarter Car Model

Authors: Şaban Çetin, Özgür Demir

Abstract:

In this study, Fuzzy PID Control scheme is designed for an active suspension system. The main goal of an active suspension system for using in a vehicle model is reducing body deflections and handling high comfort for a passenger car. The present system was modelled as a two-degree-of-freedom (2-DOF) nonlinear vehicle model.

Keywords: Active suspension system, Fuzzy PID controller, a nonlinear quarter car model.

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7469 Modelling of Groundwater Resources for Al-Najaf City, Iraq

Authors: Hayder H. Kareem, Shunqi Pan

Abstract:

Groundwater is a vital water resource in many areas in the world, particularly in the Middle-East region where the water resources become scarce and depleting. Sustainable management and planning of the groundwater resources become essential and urgent given the impact of the global climate change. In the recent years, numerical models have been widely used to predict the flow pattern and assess the water resources security, as well as the groundwater quality affected by the contaminants transported. In this study, MODFLOW is used to study the current status of groundwater resources and the risk of water resource security in the region centred at Al-Najaf City, which is located in the mid-west of Iraq and adjacent to the Euphrates River. In this study, a conceptual model is built using the geologic and hydrogeologic collected for the region, together with the Digital Elevation Model (DEM) data obtained from the "Global Land Cover Facility" (GLCF) and "United State Geological Survey" (USGS) for the study area. The computer model is also implemented with the distributions of 69 wells in the area with the steady pro-defined hydraulic head along its boundaries. The model is then applied with the recharge rate (from precipitation) of 7.55 mm/year, given from the analysis of the field data in the study area for the period of 1980-2014. The hydraulic conductivity from the measurements at the locations of wells is interpolated for model use. The model is calibrated with the measured hydraulic heads at the locations of 50 of 69 wells in the domain and results show a good agreement. The standard-error-of-estimate (SEE), root-mean-square errors (RMSE), Normalized RMSE and correlation coefficient are 0.297 m, 2.087 m, 6.899% and 0.971 respectively. Sensitivity analysis is also carried out, and it is found that the model is sensitive to recharge, particularly when the rate is greater than (15mm/year). Hydraulic conductivity is found to be another parameter which can affect the results significantly, therefore it requires high quality field data. The results show that there is a general flow pattern from the west to east of the study area, which agrees well with the observations and the gradient of the ground surface. It is found that with the current operational pumping rates of the wells in the area, a dry area is resulted in Al-Najaf City due to the large quantity of groundwater withdrawn. The computed water balance with the current operational pumping quantity shows that the Euphrates River supplies water into the groundwater of approximately 11759 m3/day, instead of gaining water of 11178 m3/day from the groundwater if no pumping from the wells. It is expected that the results obtained from the study can provide important information for the sustainable and effective planning and management of the regional groundwater resources for Al-Najaf City.

Keywords: Al-Najaf city, conceptual modelling, groundwater, unconfined aquifer, visual MODFLOW.

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7468 Effect of Different Model Drugs on the Properties of Model Membranes from Fishes

Authors: M. Kumpugdee-Vollrath, T. G. D. Phu, M. Helmis

Abstract:

A suitable model membrane to study the pharmacological effect of pharmaceutical products is human stratum corneum because this layer of human skin is the outermost layer and it is an important barrier to be passed through. Other model membranes which were also used are for example skins from pig, mouse, reptile or fish. We are interested in fish skins in this project. The advantages of the fish skins are, that they can be obtained from the supermarket or fish shop. However, the fish skins should be freshly prepared and used directly without storage. In order to understand the effect of different model drugs e.g. lidocaine HCl, resveratrol, paracetamol, ibuprofen, acetyl salicylic acid on the properties of the model membrane from various types of fishes e.g. trout, salmon, cod, plaice permeation tests were performed and differential scanning calorimetry was applied.

Keywords: Fish skin, model membrane, permeation, DSC, lidocaine HCl, resveratrol, paracetamol, ibuprofen, acetyl salicylic acid.

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7467 Analysis of Message Authentication in Turbo Coded Halftoned Images using Exit Charts

Authors: Andhe Dharani, P. S. Satyanarayana, Andhe Pallavi

Abstract:

Considering payload, reliability, security and operational lifetime as major constraints in transmission of images we put forward in this paper a steganographic technique implemented at the physical layer. We suggest transmission of Halftoned images (payload constraint) in wireless sensor networks to reduce the amount of transmitted data. For low power and interference limited applications Turbo codes provide suitable reliability. Ensuring security is one of the highest priorities in many sensor networks. The Turbo Code structure apart from providing forward error correction can be utilized to provide for encryption. We first consider the Halftoned image and then the method of embedding a block of data (called secret) in this Halftoned image during the turbo encoding process is presented. The small modifications required at the turbo decoder end to extract the embedded data are presented next. The implementation complexity and the degradation of the BER (bit error rate) in the Turbo based stego system are analyzed. Using some of the entropy based crypt analytic techniques we show that the strength of our Turbo based stego system approaches that found in the OTPs (one time pad).

Keywords: Halftoning, Turbo codes, security, operationallifetime, Turbo based stego system.

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7466 Infrastructure Change Monitoring Using Multitemporal Multispectral Satellite Images

Authors: U. Datta

Abstract:

The main objective of this study is to find a suitable approach to monitor the land infrastructure growth over a period of time using multispectral satellite images. Bi-temporal change detection method is unable to indicate the continuous change occurring over a long period of time. To achieve this objective, the approach used here estimates a statistical model from series of multispectral image data over a long period of time, assuming there is no considerable change during that time period and then compare it with the multispectral image data obtained at a later time. The change is estimated pixel-wise. Statistical composite hypothesis technique is used for estimating pixel based change detection in a defined region. The generalized likelihood ratio test (GLRT) is used to detect the changed pixel from probabilistic estimated model of the corresponding pixel. The changed pixel is detected assuming that the images have been co-registered prior to estimation. To minimize error due to co-registration, 8-neighborhood pixels around the pixel under test are also considered. The multispectral images from Sentinel-2 and Landsat-8 from 2015 to 2018 are used for this purpose. There are different challenges in this method. First and foremost challenge is to get quite a large number of datasets for multivariate distribution modelling. A large number of images are always discarded due to cloud coverage. Due to imperfect modelling there will be high probability of false alarm. Overall conclusion that can be drawn from this work is that the probabilistic method described in this paper has given some promising results, which need to be pursued further.

Keywords: Co-registration, GLRT, infrastructure growth, multispectral, multitemporal, pixel-based change detection.

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7465 Mathematical Models of Flow Shop and Job Shop Scheduling Problems

Authors: Miloš Šeda

Abstract:

In this paper, mathematical models for permutation flow shop scheduling and job shop scheduling problems are proposed. The first problem is based on a mixed integer programming model. As the problem is NP-complete, this model can only be used for smaller instances where an optimal solution can be computed. For large instances, another model is proposed which is suitable for solving the problem by stochastic heuristic methods. For the job shop scheduling problem, a mathematical model and its main representation schemes are presented.

Keywords: Flow shop, job shop, mixed integer model, representation scheme.

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7464 Brainwave Classification for Brain Balancing Index (BBI) via 3D EEG Model Using k-NN Technique

Authors: N. Fuad, M. N. Taib, R. Jailani, M. E. Marwan

Abstract:

In this paper, the comparison between k-Nearest Neighbor (kNN) algorithms for classifying the 3D EEG model in brain balancing is presented. The EEG signal recording was conducted on 51 healthy subjects. Development of 3D EEG models involves pre-processing of raw EEG signals and construction of spectrogram images. Then, maximum PSD values were extracted as features from the model. There are three indexes for balanced brain; index 3, index 4 and index 5. There are significant different of the EEG signals due to the brain balancing index (BBI). Alpha-α (8–13 Hz) and beta-β (13–30 Hz) were used as input signals for the classification model. The k-NN classification result is 88.46% accuracy. These results proved that k-NN can be used in order to predict the brain balancing application.

Keywords: Brain balancing, kNN, power spectral density, 3D EEG model.

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7463 Validation and Selection between Machine Learning Technique and Traditional Methods to Reduce Bullwhip Effects: a Data Mining Approach

Authors: Hamid R. S. Mojaveri, Seyed S. Mousavi, Mojtaba Heydar, Ahmad Aminian

Abstract:

The aim of this paper is to present a methodology in three steps to forecast supply chain demand. In first step, various data mining techniques are applied in order to prepare data for entering into forecasting models. In second step, the modeling step, an artificial neural network and support vector machine is presented after defining Mean Absolute Percentage Error index for measuring error. The structure of artificial neural network is selected based on previous researchers' results and in this article the accuracy of network is increased by using sensitivity analysis. The best forecast for classical forecasting methods (Moving Average, Exponential Smoothing, and Exponential Smoothing with Trend) is resulted based on prepared data and this forecast is compared with result of support vector machine and proposed artificial neural network. The results show that artificial neural network can forecast more precisely in comparison with other methods. Finally, forecasting methods' stability is analyzed by using raw data and even the effectiveness of clustering analysis is measured.

Keywords: Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), bullwhip effect, demand forecasting, Support Vector Machine (SVM).

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7462 An Ising-based Model for the Spread of Infection

Authors: Christian P. Crisostomo, Chrysline Margus N. Piñol

Abstract:

A zero-field ferromagnetic Ising model is utilized to simulate the propagation of infection in a population that assumes a square lattice structure. The rate of infection increases with temperature. The disease spreads faster among individuals with low J values. Such effect, however, diminishes at higher temperatures.

Keywords: Epidemiology, Ising model, lattice models

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7461 Kalman Filter for Bilinear Systems with Application

Authors: Abdullah E. Al-Mazrooei

Abstract:

In this paper, we present a new kind of the bilinear systems in the form of state space model. The evolution of this system depends on the product of state vector by its self. The well known Lotak Volterra and Lorenz models are special cases of this new model. We also present here a generalization of Kalman filter which is suitable to work with the new bilinear model. An application to real measurements is introduced to illustrate the efficiency of the proposed algorithm.

Keywords: Bilinear systems, state space model, Kalman filter.

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7460 Effect of Model Dimension in Numerical Simulation on Assessment of Water Inflow to Tunnel in Discontinues Rock

Authors: Hadi Farhadian, Homayoon Katibeh

Abstract:

Groundwater inflow to the tunnels is one of the most important problems in tunneling operation. The objective of this study is the investigation of model dimension effects on tunnel inflow assessment in discontinuous rock masses using numerical modeling. In the numerical simulation, the model dimension has an important role in prediction of water inflow rate. When the model dimension is very small, due to low distance to the tunnel border, the model boundary conditions affect the estimated amount of groundwater flow into the tunnel and results show a very high inflow to tunnel. Hence, in this study, the two-dimensional universal distinct element code (UDEC) used and the impact of different model parameters, such as tunnel radius, joint spacing, horizontal and vertical model domain extent has been evaluated. Results show that the model domain extent is a function of the most significant parameters, which are tunnel radius and joint spacing.

Keywords: Water inflow, Tunnel, Discontinues rock, Numerical simulation.

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