Search results for: Conservative level set method

Authors: Hadi Sadoghi Yazdi, Mehri Sadoghi Yazdi, Mohammad Reza Mohammadi

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This paper is concerned with studying the forgetting factor of the recursive least square (RLS). A new dynamic forgetting factor (DFF) for RLS algorithm is presented. The proposed DFF-RLS is compared to other methods. Better performance at convergence and tracking of noisy chirp sinusoid is achieved. The control of the forgetting factor at DFF-RLS is based on the gradient of inverse correlation matrix. Compared with the gradient of mean square error algorithm, the proposed approach provides faster tracking and smaller mean square error. In low signal-to-noise ratios, the performance of the proposed method is superior to other approaches.

Keywords: Forgetting factor, RLS, Inverse correlation matrix, human motion analysis.

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Authors: Nihan Cinar

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Location selection is one of the most important decision making process which requires to consider several criteria based on the mission and the strategy. This study-s object is to provide a decision support model in order to help the bank selecting the most appropriate location for a bank-s branch considering a case study in Turkey. The object of the bank is to select the most appropriate city for opening a branch among six alternatives in the South-Eastern of Turkey. The model in this study was consisted of five main criteria which are Demographic, Socio-Economic, Sectoral Employment, Banking and Trade Potential and twenty one subcriteria which represent the bank-s mission and strategy. Because of the multi-criteria structure of the problem and the fuzziness in the comparisons of the criteria, fuzzy AHP is used and for the ranking of the alternatives, TOPSIS method is used.

Keywords: MCDM, bank branch location, fuzzy AHP, TOPSIS.

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Authors: F. Bendahma, M. Mana, B. Bestani, S. Bentata

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This study deals with the structural and electronic properties of ternary PdMnGe Half-Heusler alloy using the full potential linearized augmented plane wave (FP-LAPW) method based on the density functional theory (DFT) as implemented in the WIEN2k package, within the framework of generalized gradient approximation (GGA). Structural parameters, total and partial densities of states were also analyzed. The obtained result shows that the studied material is metallic in GGA treatment. The elastic constants (Cij) show that our compound is ductile, stiff and anisotropic.

Keywords: Full potential linearized augmented plane wave, generalized gradient approximation treatment, Half-Heusler, structural and electronic properties.

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Authors: Janhavi Inamdar, S.K. Singh

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Laboratory experiments have been performed to investigate photocatalytic detoxification by using TiO2 photocatalyst for treating dairy effluent. Various operational parameters such as catalyst concentration, initial concentration, angle of tilt of solar flat plate reactor and flow rate were investigated. Results indicated that the photocatalytic detoxification process can efficiently treat dairy effluent. Experimental runs with dairy wastewater can be used to identify the optimum operational parameters to perform wastewater degradation on large scale for recycling purpose. Also effect of two different types of reactors on degradation process was analyzed.

Keywords: Photocatalytic detoxification, TiO2 photocatalyst, solar flat plate reactor, Zero effluent discharge.

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Authors: Teti Estiasih, Harijono, Weny Bekti Sunarharum, Atina Rahmawati

Abstract:

This research studied the hypoglycemic effect of water soluble polysaccharide (WSP) extracted from yam (Dioscorea hispida) tuber by three different methods: aqueous extraction, papain assisted extraction, and tempeh inoculums assisted extraction. The two later extraction methods were aimed to remove WSP binding protein to have more pure WSP. The hypoglycemic activities were evaluated by means in vivo test on alloxan induced hyperglycemic rats, glucose response test (GRT), in situ glucose absorption test using everted sac, and short chain fatty acids (SCFAs) analysis. All yam WSP extracts exhibited ability to decrease blood glucose level in hyperglycemia condition as well as inhibited glucose absorption and SCFA formation. The order of hypoglycemic activity was tempeh inoculums assisted- >papain assisted- >aqueous WSP extracts. GRT and in situ glucose absorption test showed that order of inhibition was papain assisted- >tempeh inoculums assisted- >aqueous WSP extracts. Digesta of caecum of yam WSP extracts oral fed rats had more SCFA than control. Tempeh inoculums assisted WSP extract exhibited the most significant hypoglycemic activity.

Keywords: hypoglycemic activity, papain, tempeh inoculums, water soluble polysaccharides, yam (Discorea hispida)

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Authors: Hassan A. Alshahrani, Mehdi H. Hojjati

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In order to predict and model wrinkling which is caused by out of plane deformation due to compressive loading in the plane of the material during composite prepregs forming, it is necessary to quantitatively understand the relative magnitude of the bending stiffness. This study aims to examine the bending properties of out-of-autoclave (OOA) thermosetting prepreg under vertical cantilever test condition. A direct method for characterizing the bending behavior of composite prepregs was developed. The results from direct measurement were compared with results derived from an image-processing procedure that analyses the captured image during the vertical bending test. A numerical simulation was performed using ABAQUS to confirm the bending stiffness value.

Keywords: Bending stiffness, out of autoclave prepreg, forming process, numerical simulation.

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Authors: Shiyun Liu

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Radiant heating systems work fundamentally differently from air systems by taking advantage of both radiant and convective heat transfer to remove space heating load. There are rare studies on differences of heating systems between all-air system and radiant floor system. This paper uses the method of simulation based on state-space to calculate the indoor temperature and wall temperature of each system and shows how the dynamic heat transfer in rooms conditioned by a radiant system is different from an air system. Then this paper analyses the changes of indoor temperature of these two systems, finding out the differences between all-air heating system and radiant floor heating system to help the designer choose a more suitable heating system.

Keywords: Radiant floor, all-air system, thermal comfort, simulation, heating system.

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Authors: Zhang Lei, Liu Min, Liu Botao

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In order to improve the simulation effects of space cold black environment, this paper described a rectangular channel plate heat sink. By using fluid mechanics theory and finite element method, the internal fluid flow and heat transfer in heat sink was numerically simulated to analyze the impact of channel structural on fluid flow and heat transfer. The result showed that heat sink temperature uniformity is well, and the impact of channel structural on the heat sink temperature uniformity is not significant. The channel depth and spacing are important factors which affect the fluid flow and heat transfer in the heat sink. The two factors of heat transfer and resistance need to be considered comprehensively to determine the optimal flow structure parameters.

Keywords: heat transfer, heat sink, numerical simulation

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Authors: X. Z. Gao, S. J. Ovaska, X. Wang

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Prediction of sinusoidal signals with time-varying frequencies has been an important research topic in power electronics systems. To solve this problem, we propose a new fuzzy predictive filtering scheme, which is based on a Finite Impulse Response (FIR) filter bank. Fuzzy logic is introduced here to provide appropriate interpolation of individual filter outputs. Therefore, instead of regular 'hard' switching, our method has the advantageous 'soft' switching among different filters. Simulation comparisons between the fuzzy predictive filtering and conventional filter bank-based approach are made to demonstrate that the new scheme can achieve an enhanced prediction performance for slowly changing sinusoidal input signals.

Keywords: Predictive filtering, fuzzy logic, sinusoidal signals, time-varying frequencies.

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Authors: Liu Zhiyuan, Sun Zongdi, Liu Zhiyuan, Sun Zongdi

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Qingdao is a seaside city. Taking into account the characteristics of Qingdao, this article established a multiple linear regression model to analyze the impact of macroeconomic factors on housing prices. We used stepwise regression method to make multiple linear regression analysis, and made statistical analysis of F test values and T test values. According to the analysis results, the model is continuously optimized. Finally, this article obtained the multiple linear regression equation and the influencing factors, and the reliability of the model was verified by F test and T test.

Keywords: Housing prices, multiple linear regression model, macroeconomic factors, Qingdao City.

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Authors: Eshagh Rasouli Sarabi, Mir Saeed Moosavi

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Road transportation system is the most important method of transporting the goods. Considering the most suitable geographical situation of Iran to transport the goods between Europe and Asia and placement of this country in direction of international corridors (east- west) , (north-south) and Asian land transport to infrastructure development “A.L.T.I.D" and Transport corridor Europe - Caucasus - Asia “T.R.A.C.E.C.A", noticing the security of road transportation system in this country is so important. In this paper the main factors of accidents on the roads of Iran are categorized regarding the rate of accidents occurred. Then apart from studying the main reasons of accidents of every category, the main factors of these events are studied and its strategies in Iran are introduced.

Keywords: Road, Transportation, Accident, Factors

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Authors: Jutharat Sunprasert, Ekapong Hirunsirisawat, Narongrit Waraporn, Somporn Peansukmanee

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Metal Ship and Robotic Car is one of the hands-on activities in the course, the Fundamental of Engineering that can be divided into three parts. The first part, the metal ships, was made by using engineering drawings, physics and mathematics knowledge. The second part is where the students learned how to construct a robotic car and control it using computer programming. In the last part, the students had to combine the workings of these two objects in the final testing. This aim of study was to investigate the effectiveness of hands-on activity by integrating Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM) concepts to develop scientific and engineering skills. The results showed that the majority of students felt this hands-on activity lead to an increased confidence level in the integration of STEM. Moreover, 48% of all students engaged well with the STEM concepts. Students could obtain the knowledge of STEM through hands-on activities with the topics science and mathematics, engineering drawing, engineering workshop and computer programming; most students agree and strongly agree with this learning process. This indicated that the hands-on activity: “Metal Ship and Robotic Car” is a useful tool to integrate each aspect of STEM. Furthermore, hands-on activities positively influence a student’s interest which leads to increased learning achievement and also in developing scientific and engineering skills.

Keywords: Hands-on activity, STEM education, computer programming, metal work.

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Authors: T. Benmiloud, A. Omari

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This paper presents a new technique of compensation of the effect of variation parameters in the direct field oriented control of induction motor. The proposed method uses an adaptive tuning of the value of synchronous speed to obtain the robustness for the field oriented control. We show that this adaptive tuning allows having robustness for direct field oriented control to changes in rotor resistance, load torque and rotational speed. The effectiveness of the proposed control scheme is verified by numerical simulations. The numerical validation results of the proposed scheme have presented good performances compared to the usual direct-field oriented control.

Keywords: Induction motor, direct field-oriented control, compensation of variation parameters, fuzzy logic controller.

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Authors: Tapan Trivedi, Pramod Agarwal, Rajendrasinh Jadeja, Pragnesh Bhatt

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Space Vector Pulse Width Modulation is popular for variable frequency drives. The method has several advantages over carried based PWM and is computation intensive. The implementation of SVPWM for multilevel inverter requires special attention and at the same time consumes considerable resources. Due to faster processing power and reduced over all computational burden, FPGAs are being investigated as an alternative for other controllers. In this paper, a space vector PWM algorithm is implemented using FPGA which requires less computational area and is modular in structure. The algorithm is verified experimentally for Neutral Point Clamped inverter using FPGA development board xc3s5000-4fg900.

Keywords: Modular structure, Multilevel inverter, Space Vector PWM, Switching States.

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Authors: A. Benyahia, M. Zergoug, M. Amir, M. Fodil

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The main objective of this work is to enhance the Pulsed Eddy Current (PEC) response from the aluminum structure using signal processing. Cracks and metal loss in different structures cause changes in PEC response measurements. In this paper, time-frequency analysis is used to represent PEC response, which generates a large quantity of data and reduce the noise due to measurement. Power Spectral Density (PSD) after Wavelet Decomposition (PSD-WD) is proposed for defect detection. The experimental results demonstrate that the cracks in the surface can be extracted satisfactorily by the proposed methods. The validity of the proposed method is discussed.

Keywords: NDT, pulsed eddy current, continuous wavelet transform, Mexican hat wavelet mother, defect detection, power spectral density.

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Authors: Li Bixia, Ren Shouwen, Fu Yanfeng, Tu Feng, Xiaoming Fang, Xueming Wang

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The utilization of dietary crude fiber in different breed pigs is not the same. Su-shan pigs are a new breed formed by crossing Taihu pigs and Yorkshire pigs. In order to understand the resistance of Su-shan pigs to dietary crude fiber, 150 Su-shan pigs with 60 kg of average body weight and similar body conditions were allocated to three groups randomly, and there are 50 pigs in each group. The percentages of dietary crude fiber were 8.35%, 9.10%, and 11.39%, respectively. At the end of the experiment, 15 pigs randomly selected from each group were slaughtered. The results showed as follows: average daily gain of the 9.10% group was higher than that of the 8.35% group and the 11.39% group; there was a significant difference between the 9.10% group and the 8.35% group (p < 0.05. Levels of urea nitrogen, total cholesterol and high density lipoprotein in the 9.10% group were significantly higher than those in the 8.35% group and the 11.39% group (p < 0.05). Ratios of meat to fat in the 9.10% group and the 11.39% group were significantly higher than that in the 8.35% group (p < 0.05). Lean percentage of 9.10% group was higher than that of 8.35% group and 11.39% group, but there was no significant difference in three groups (p > 0.05). The weight of small intestine and large intestine in the 11.39% group was higher than that in the 8.35% group, and the 9.10% group and the difference reached a significant level (p < 0.05). In conclusion, increasing dietary crude fiber properly could reduce fat percentage, and improve the ratio of meat to fat of finishing Su-shan pigs. The digestion and metabolism of dietary crude fiber promoted the development of stomach and intestine of finishing Su-shan pig.

Keywords: Su-Shan pigs, dietary crude fiber, growth performance, serum biochemical indexes.

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Authors: Simon Bambang Widjanarko, Novita Wijayanti, Aji Sutrisno

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There is long history of konjac tubers being used as a cure for certain diseases in China and Japan. Konjac flour is prepared from konjac tubers and it contains high concentration of glucomannan. Konjac Glucomannan (KGM) is dietary fiber and the role of which has been demonstrated in weight reduction, lowering blood cholesterol and sugar level, promoting intestinal activity etc. Konjac glucomanan has a property of swelling by absorbing water, more than a hundred times its own weight. Therefore it helps increasing weight of feces, water content of feces, and promotes satiety feeling. Mode of actions of dietary fibre as laxatives agents includes holding water inside the bowel lumen, inhibition of water absorption in the colon and stimulating colonic motility. Number of fecal pellets did not effected in rats were fed on 300 and 600 mg/kg of konjac flour, as well as constipated control and Dulcolax treatment. Water content, weight of fecal pellets and gastrointestinal transit ratio were higher in rats treated with 600 mg/kg than 300 mg/kg of konjac flour. Rats were administered with Dulcolax showed the highest gastrointestinal transit ratio, followed by 600 mg/kg konjac flour. The lowest feed consumption was noted in 600 mg/kg konjac flour diet group.

Keywords: Laxative, konjac flour, Amorphophallus muelleri Blume, glucomannan, constipation.

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Authors: Dennis L. Owuor, Okuthe P. Kogeda, Johnson I. Agbinya

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Mobile localization has attracted a great deal of attention recently due to the introduction of wireless networks. Although several localization algorithms and systems have been implemented and discussed in the literature, very few researchers have exploited the gap that exists between indoor localization, tracking, external storage of location information and outdoor localization for the purpose of digital forensics during and after a disaster. The contribution of this paper lies in the implementation of a robust system that is capable of locating, tracking mobile device users and store location information for both indoor and partially outdoor the cloud. The system can be used during disaster to track and locate mobile phone users. The developed system is a mobile application built based on Android, Hypertext Preprocessor (PHP), Cascading Style Sheets (CSS), JavaScript and MATLAB for the Android mobile users. Using Waterfall model of software development, we have implemented a three level system that is able to track, locate and store mobile device information in secure database (cloud) on almost a real time basis. The outcome of the study showed that the developed system is efficient with regard to the tracking and locating mobile devices. The system is also flexible, i.e. can be used in any building with fewer adjustments. Finally, the system is accurate for both indoor and outdoor in terms of locating and tracking mobile devices.

Keywords: Indoor localization, waterfall, digital forensics, tracking and cloud.

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Authors: Christian Bräuer-Burchardt, Peter Kühmstedt, Gunther Notni

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A new hybrid method to realise high-precision distortion determination for optical ultra-precision 3D measurement systems based on stereo cameras using active light projection is introduced. It consists of two phases: the basic distortion determination and the refinement. The refinement phase of the procedure uses a plane surface and projected fringe patterns as calibration tools to determine simultaneously the distortion of both cameras within an iterative procedure. The new technique may be performed in the state of the device “ready for measurement" which avoids errors by a later adjustment. A considerable reduction of distortion errors is achieved and leads to considerable improvements of the accuracy of 3D measurements, especially in the precise measurement of smooth surfaces.

Keywords: 3D Surface Measurement, Fringe Projection, Lens Distortion, Stereo.

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Authors: Jingjing Lan, Jun Zhou, Xin Liu

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In this paper, a low-power digital controller for DC-DC power conversion was presented. The controller generates the pulse-width modulated (PWM) signal from digital inputs provided by analog-to-digital converter (ADC). An efficient and simple design scheme to develop the control unit was discussed. This method allows minimization of the consumed resources of the chip and it is based on direct digital design approach. In this application, with the proposed scheme, nearly half area and two-third of the power consumption was saved compared to the conventional schemes. This work illustrates the possibility of implementing low-power and area-efficient power management circuit using direct digital design based approach. 

Keywords: Buck converter, DC-DC power conversion, digital control, proportional-integral (PI) controller.

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Authors: E. Shahbazali, N. Afrasiabi, A. A. Safekordi

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Nowadays, fluidized bed plays an important part in industry. The design of this kind of reactor requires knowing the interfacial area between two phases and this interfacial area leads to calculate the solid holdup in the bed. Consequently achieving interfacial area between gas and solid in the bed experimentally is so significant. On interfacial area measurement in fluidized bed with gas has been worked, but light transmission technique has been used less. Therefore, in the current research the possibility of using of this technique and its accuracy are investigated. Measuring, a fluidized bed was designed and the problems were averted as far as possible. By using fine solid with equal shape and diameter and installing an optical system, the absorption of light during the time of fluidization has been measured. Results indicate that this method that its validity has been proved in the gas-liquid system, by different reasons have less application in gas-solid system. One important reason could be non-uniformity in such systems.

Keywords: Fluidization, Holdup, Light Transmission, Two phase system.

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Authors: Amir Gandomkar, Tahereh Soltani Gord faramarzi, Parisa Safaripour Chafi, Abdol-Reza Amani

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Temperature, humidity and precipitation in an area, are parameters proved influential in the climate of that area, and one should recognize them so that he can determine the climate of that area. Climate changes are of primary importance in climatology, and in recent years, have been of great concern to researchers and even politicians and organizations, for they can play an important role in social, political and economic activities. Even though the real cause of climate changes or their stability is not yet fully recognized, they are a matter of concern to researchers and their importance for countries has prompted them to investigate climate changes in different levels, especially in regional, national and continental level. This issue has less been investigated in our country. However, in recent years, there have been some researches and conferences on climate changes. This study is also in line with such researches and tries to investigate and analyze the trends of climate changes (temperature and precipitation) in Sefid-roud (the name of a river) basin. Three parameters of mean annual precipitation, temperature, and maximum and minimum temperatures in 36 synoptic and climatology stations in a statistical period of 49 years (1956-2005) in the stations of Sefid-roud basin were analyzed by Mann-Kendall test. The results obtained by data analysis show that climate changes are short term and have a trend. The analysis of mean temperature revealed that changes have a significantly rising trend, besides the precipitation has a significantly falling trend.

Keywords: Trend, Climate changes, Sefid-roud, Mann-Kendall

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Authors: Maria Paula Santos, Ana Lucas

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Organizations support their operations and decision making on the data they have at their disposal, so the quality of these data is remarkably important and Data Quality (DQ) is currently a relevant issue, the literature being unanimous in pointing out that poor DQ can result in large costs for organizations. The literature review identified and described 24 Critical Success Factors (CSF) for Data Quality Management (DQM) that were presented to a panel of experts, who ordered them according to their degree of importance, using the Delphi method with the Q-sort technique, based on an online questionnaire. The study shows that the five most important CSF for DQM are: definition of appropriate policies and standards, control of inputs, definition of a strategic plan for DQ, organizational culture focused on quality of the data and obtaining top management commitment and support.

Keywords: Critical success factors, data quality, data quality management, Delphi, Q-Sort.

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Authors: Md Abid Khan

Abstract:

A recognized engineering challenge is related to personnel protection from fatal arc flash incident energy in the line side of the 480-volt switchgears incomer breakers during maintenance activities. The incident energy is typically high due to slow fault clearance and it can be higher than the available personnel protective equipment (PPE) ratings. A fault on the line side of the 480 Volt breaker is cleared by breakers or fuses in the upstream higher voltage system (4160 Volt or higher). The current reflection in the higher voltage upstream system for a fault in the 480-volt switchgear is low, the clearance time is slower and the inversely proportional incident energy is hence higher. The installation of overcurrent protection at 480-volt system upstream of the incomer breaker will operate fast enough and trips the upstream higher voltage breaker when a fault develops at the incomer breaker. Therefore, fault current reduction as reflected in the upstream higher voltage system is eliminated. Since the fast overcurrent protection is permanently installed, it is always functional, do not require human interventions and eliminates exposure to human errors. It is installed at the maintenance activity location and its operations can be locally monitored by craftsmen during maintenance activities.

Keywords: Arc flash, mitigation, maintenance switch, energy level.

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Authors: Ali Gholami, Ebrahim Panahpour, Amir Hossein Davami

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In this research, a part of Aghche basin in Isfahan province with an area about 2000 hectars, was chosen to be obtain curve number coefficient runoff and W indicator in second Cook method By using aerial photos 1968 and 1995, the satellite data of the IRS in 2008. Then the process of land use changes in the period of study and its effect on the changes of curve number (CN), W indicator and surface runoff coefficient (C) of the basin was investigated. These results showed that on the track of these land use changes the weight averages curve number (CN), surface runoff coefficient (C) and W indicator of the basin were increased to 0.92, 0.02 and 0.78 unit in the first period of study and 1.18, 0.03, 0.99 Unit in the second period of study respectively.

Keywords: Aghche Watershed, Curve Numbers (CV), Land UseChanges, Surface Runoff Coefficient(C) Map, W indicator

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Authors: H. Izakian, S. A. Monadjemi, B. Tork Ladani, K. Zamanifar

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Nowadays, OCR systems have got several applications and are increasingly employed in daily life. Much research has been done regarding the identification of Latin, Japanese, and Chinese characters. However, very little investigation has been performed regarding Farsi/Arabic characters recognition. Probably the reason is difficulty and complexity of those characters identification compared to the others and limitation of IT activities in Farsi and Arabic speaking countries. In this paper, a technique has been employed to identify isolated Farsi/Arabic characters. A chain code based algorithm along with other significant peculiarities such as number and location of dots and auxiliary parts, and the number of holes existing in the isolated character has been used in this study to identify Farsi/Arabic characters. Experimental results show the relatively high accuracy of the method developed when it is tested on several standard Farsi fonts.

Keywords: Farsi characters, OCR, feature extraction, chain code.

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Authors: N. Kh. Gomidze, I. N. Jabnidze, K. A. Makharadze

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The influence of inhomogeneities of plasma and statistical characteristics on the propagation of signal is very actual in wireless communication systems. While propagating in the media, the deformation and evaluation of the signal in time and space take place and on the receiver we get a deformed signal. The present article is dedicated to studying the space-time evolution of rectangular, sinusoidal, exponential and bi-exponential impulses via numerical experiment in the collisional, cold plasma. The presented method is not based on the Fourier-presentation of the signal. Analytically, we have received the general image depicting the space-time evolution of the radio impulse amplitude that gives an opportunity to analyze the concrete results in the case of primary impulse.

Keywords: Collisional, cold plasma, rectangular pulse signal, impulse envelope.

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Authors: Keigo Matsuura, Isao Tomita

Abstract:

We have studied a method to widen the spectrum of optical pulses that pass through an InGaAsP waveguide for application to broadband optical communication. In particular, we have investigated the competitive effect between spectral broadening arising from nonlinear refraction (optical Kerr effect) and shrinking due to two photon absorption in the InGaAsP waveguide with χ(3) nonlinearity. The shrunk spectrum recovers broadening by the enhancement effect of the nonlinear refractive index near the bandgap of InGaAsP with a bandgap wavelength of 1490 nm. The broadened spectral width at around 1525 nm (196.7 THz) becomes 10.7 times wider than that at around 1560 nm (192.3 THz) without the enhancement effect, where amplified optical pulses with a pulse width of ∼ 2 ps and a peak power of 10 W propagate through a 1-cm-long InGaAsP waveguide with a cross-section of 4 (μm)2.

Keywords: InGaAsP Waveguide, χ(3) Nonlinearity, Spectral Broadening.

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Authors: M. Lloret-Climent, J. Nescolarde-Selva

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The aim of this paper is to propose a mathematical model to determine invariant sets, set covering, orbits and, in particular, attractors in the set of tourism variables. Analysis was carried out based on a pre-designed algorithm and applying our interpretation of chaos theory developed in the context of General Systems Theory. This article sets out the causal relationships associated with tourist flows in order to enable the formulation of appropriate strategies. Our results can be applied to numerous cases. For example, in the analysis of tourist flows, these findings can be used to determine whether the behaviour of certain groups affects that of other groups and to analyse tourist behaviour in terms of the most relevant variables. Unlike statistical analyses that merely provide information on current data, our method uses orbit analysis to forecast, if attractors are found, the behaviour of tourist variables in the immediate future.

Keywords: Attractor, invariant set, orbits, tourist variables.

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Authors: Kenneth M. Oba

Abstract:

This study investigated factors affecting the price of cement in Nigeria, and developed a mathematical model that can predict future cement prices. Cement is key in the Nigerian construction industry. The changes in price caused by certain factors could affect economic and infrastructural development; hence there is need for proper proactive planning. Secondary data were collected from published information on cement between 2014 and 2019. In addition, questionnaires were sent to some domestic cement retailers in Port Harcourt in Nigeria, to obtain the actual prices of cement between the same periods. The study revealed that the most critical factors affecting the price of cement in Nigeria are inflation rate, population growth rate, and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate. With the use of data from United Nations, International Monetary Fund, and Central Bank of Nigeria databases, amongst others, a Multiple Linear Regression model was formulated. The model was used to predict the price of cement for 2020-2025. The model was then tested with 95% confidence level, using a two-tailed t-test and an F-test, resulting in an R² of 0.8428 and R² (adj.) of 0.6069. The results of the tests and the correlation factors confirm the model to be fit and adequate. This study will equip researchers and stakeholders in the construction industry with information for planning, monitoring, and management of present and future construction projects that involve the use of cement.

Keywords: Cement price, multiple linear regression model, Nigerian Construction Industry, price prediction.

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