Search results for: maintenance strategy selection multiple criteria decision-making analysis

Authors: R. Pernicova, D. Dobias

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The present article describes the limits of using recycled concrete aggregate (denoted as RCA) in the top layer of concrete roads. The main aim of this work is to investigate the possibility of reuse of recycled aggregates obtained by crushing the old concrete roads as a building material in the new top layers of concrete pavements. The paper is based on gathering the current knowledge about how to use recycled concrete aggregate, suitability, and modification of the properties and its standards. Regulations are detailed and described especially for European Union and for Czech Republic.

Keywords: Concrete, Czech Republic, pavements, recycled concrete aggregate, RCA, standards.

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Authors: Dmitriy Yu. Korulkin, Raissa A. Muzychkina

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The article represents the results of isolation and component chromatographic analysis of essential oils of Polygonum L. plants growing in Kazakhstan in commercial reserves at the territory of Kazakhstan. The results of research of antibacterial and antifungal activity of isolated compounds have been represented.

Keywords: Antibacterial, antifungal, bioactive substances, essential oils, isolation, Polygonum L.

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Authors: K. Karuppasamy

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In this paper, analysis of an infinite beam resting on multilayer tensionless extensible geosynthetic reinforced granular fill-poor soil system overlying soft soil strata under moving load with constant velocity is presented. The beam is subjected to a concentrated load moving with constant velocity. The upper reinforced granular bed is modeled by a rough membrane embedded in Pasternak shear layer overlying a series of compressible nonlinear winkler springs representing the underlying the very poor soil. The multilayer tensionless extensible geosynthetic layer has been assumed to deform such that at interface the geosynthetic and the soil have some deformation. Nonlinear behaviour of granular fill and the very poor soil has been considered in the analysis by means of hyperbolic constitutive relationships. Governing differential equations of the soil foundation system have been obtained and solved with the help of appropriate boundary conditions. The solution has been obtained by employing finite difference method by means of Gauss-Siedal iterative scheme. Detailed parametric study has been conducted to study the influence of various parameters on the response of soil–foundation system under consideration by means of deflection and bending moment in the beam and tension mobilized in the geosynthetic layer. These parameters include magnitude of applied load, velocity of load, damping, ultimate resistance of poor soil and granular fill layer. Range of values of parameters has been considered as per Indian Railway conditions. This study clearly observed that the comparisons of multilayer tensionless extensible geosynthetic reinforcement with poor foundation soil and magnitude of applied load, relative compressibility of granular fill and ultimate resistance of poor soil has significant influence on the response of soil–foundation system.

Keywords: Infinite beams, multilayer tensionless extensible geosynthetic, granular layer, moving load, nonlinear behavior of poor soil.

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Authors: Hazem M. El-Bakry

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Principal Component Analysis (PCA) has many different important applications especially in pattern detection such as face detection / recognition. Therefore, for real time applications, the response time is required to be as small as possible. In this paper, new implementation of PCA for fast face detection is presented. Such new implementation is designed based on cross correlation in the frequency domain between the input image and eigenvectors (weights). Simulation results show that the proposed implementation of PCA is faster than conventional one.

Keywords: Fast Face Detection, PCA, Cross Correlation, Frequency Domain

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Authors: Chun-Lang Chang

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According to the statistics, the prevalence of congenital hearing loss in Taiwan is approximately six thousandths; furthermore, one thousandths of infants have severe hearing impairment. Hearing ability during infancy has significant impact in the development of children-s oral expressions, language maturity, cognitive performance, education ability and social behaviors in the future. Although most children born with hearing impairment have sensorineural hearing loss, almost every child more or less still retains some residual hearing. If provided with a hearing aid or cochlear implant (a bionic ear) timely in addition to hearing speech training, even severely hearing-impaired children can still learn to talk. On the other hand, those who failed to be diagnosed and thus unable to begin hearing and speech rehabilitations on a timely manner might lose an important opportunity to live a complete and healthy life. Eventually, the lack of hearing and speaking ability will affect the development of both mental and physical functions, intelligence, and social adaptability. Not only will this problem result in an irreparable regret to the hearing-impaired child for the life time, but also create a heavy burden for the family and society. Therefore, it is necessary to establish a set of computer-assisted predictive model that can accurately detect and help diagnose newborn hearing loss so that early interventions can be provided timely to eliminate waste of medical resources. This study uses information from the neonatal database of the case hospital as the subjects, adopting two different analysis methods of using support vector machine (SVM) for model predictions and using logistic regression to conduct factor screening prior to model predictions in SVM to examine the results. The results indicate that prediction accuracy is as high as 96.43% when the factors are screened and selected through logistic regression. Hence, the model constructed in this study will have real help in clinical diagnosis for the physicians and actually beneficial to the early interventions of newborn hearing impairment.

Keywords: Data mining, Hearing impairment, Logistic regression analysis, Support vector machines

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Authors: Alexey V. Klyuev, Valery P. Samarin, Viktor F. Klyuev

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A power measurement algorithm of the input mix components of the noise signal and narrowband interference is considered using functional transformations of the input mix in the postdetection processing channel. The algorithm efficiency analysis has been carried out for different interference-to-signal ratio. Algorithm performance features have been explored by numerical experiment results.

Keywords: Noise signal, continuous narrowband interference, signal power, spectrum width, detection.

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Authors: Aki Happonen, Adrian Burian, Erwin Hemming

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Fixed-point simulation results are used for the performance measure of inverting matrices using a reconfigurable processing element. Matrices are inverted using the Cholesky decomposition algorithm. The reconfigurable processing element is capable of all required mathematical operations. The fixed-point word length analysis is based on simulations of different condition numbers and different matrix sizes.

Keywords: Cholesky Decomposition, Fixed-point, Matrixinversion, Reconfigurable processing.

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Authors: Chun-Yao Lee, Siang-Ren Wang

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The purpose of this paper is to discuss the influence of resistance characteristic on the high conductive concrete considering the various voltage and environment. The four-electrode method is applied to the tailor-made high conductive concrete with appropriate proportion. The curve of resistivity with the changes of voltage and environment is plotted and the changes of resistivity are explored. The result based on the methods reveals that resistivity is less affected by the temperature factor, and the four-electrode method would be an applicable measurement method on a site inspection.

Keywords: Conductive concrete, Resistivity.

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Authors: Anesha Atul Shende

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When we are aiming at high goals for economic development such as sustainable growth and development of economy, poverty reduction, and reduction in inequality etc., we must not forget to include each and everyone in the society in process of achieving these goals. This study particularly talks about women’s participation in economic activities with the special focus on the analysis of female labour force participation rate in the states of India. It makes comparison between the states having low female labour force participation with the states that have comparatively high female labour population. The study began with review of data on the current state of gender biases in employment. It has been found that the male workforce is dominant all across India. Further, the study highlights the major reasons for low women participation in economic activities in some of the backward Indian states like Bihar, etc. Reasons for low female participation are related to economic, cultural and social factors that are responsible for women’s unemployment. Afterwards, it analyses the reasons behind comparatively higher female participation in some of the other states in India. The case of the north-eastern region and state of Telangana and Tamil Nadu have been analysed in brief. These states show improvements in female labour force participation over a few decades. This is due to the government policies that have been adopted, women-friendly workplaces, availability of quality jobs for women etc. UN women has recognized the social and economic benefits of having an active female labour force in a country; if female unemployment declines, it will improve the growth rate of the nation as well as the welfare of the society. The study discusses the reasons why an economy must try to increase female workforce participation. It further provides suggestions to improve the conditions in backward states in India where the unemployment rate for women is high. The policy interventions and government schemes are some of the ways to recognise poor women workforce participation issues and work on it. The condition will improve when the changes would take place from regional level with social and moral support to the women.

Keywords: Women unemployment, labour force participation, women empowerment, economic growth and development, gender disparity.

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Authors: Xiuqin Ma, Norrozila Binti Sulaiman, Hongwu Qin

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In the research field of Rough Set, few papers concern the significance of attribute set. However, there is important relation between the significance of single attribute and that of attribute set, which should not be ignored. In this paper, we draw conclusions by case analysis that (1) the attribute set including single attributes with high significance is certainly significant, while, (2)the attribute set which consists of single attributes with low significance possibly has high significance. We validate the conclusions on discernibility matrix and the results demonstrate the contribution of our conclusions.

Keywords: relation, attribute set, single attribute, rough set, significance

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Authors: R. Meier, M. Pander

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In accordance with the industry 4.0 concept, manufacturing process steps as well as the materials themselves are going to be more and more digitalized within the next years. The “digital twin” representing the simulated and measured dataset of the (semi-finished) product can be used to control and optimize the individual processing steps and help to reduce costs and expenditure of time in product development, manufacturing, and recycling. In the present work, two material characterization methods based on Lamb waves were evaluated and compared. For demonstration purpose, both methods were shown at a standard industrial product - copper ribbons, often used in photovoltaic modules as well as in high-current microelectronic devices. By numerical approximation of the Rayleigh-Lamb dispersion model on measured phase velocities second order elastic constants (Young’s modulus, Poisson’s ratio) were determined. Furthermore, the effective third order elastic constants were evaluated by applying elastic, “non-destructive”, mechanical stress on the samples. In this way, small microstructural variations due to mechanical preconditioning could be detected for the first time. Both methods were compared with respect to precision and inline application capabilities. Microstructure of the samples was systematically varied by mechanical loading and annealing. Changes in the elastic ultrasound transport properties were correlated with results from microstructural analysis and mechanical testing. In summary, monitoring the elastic material properties of plate-like structures using Lamb waves is valuable for inline and non-destructive material characterization and manufacturing process control. Second order elastic constants analysis is robust over wide environmental and sample conditions, whereas the effective third order elastic constants highly increase the sensitivity with respect to small microstructural changes. Both Lamb wave based characterization methods are fitting perfectly into the industry 4.0 concept.

Keywords: Lamb waves, industry 4.0, process control, elasticity, acoustoelasticity.

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Authors: N. Ben Si Ali, N. Benalia, N. Zarzouri

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Speed sensorless systems are intensively studied during recent years; this is mainly due to their economical benefit and fragility of mechanical sensors and also the difficulty of installing this type of sensor in many applications. These systems suffer from instability problems and sensitivity to parameter mismatch at low speed operation. In this paper an analysis of adaptive observer stability with stator resistance estimation is given.

Keywords: Motor drive, sensorless control, adaptive observer, stator resistance estimation.

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Authors: Ehsan Saghapour, Somayeh Zandian

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Image segmentation is an important step in image processing. Major developments in medical imaging allow physicians to use potent and non-invasive methods in order to evaluate structures, performance and to diagnose human diseases. In this study, an active contour was used to extract vessel networks from color retina images. Automatic analysis of retina vessels facilitates calculation of arterial index which is required to diagnose some certain retinopathies.

Keywords: Active contour, retinal vessel segmentation, image processing.

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Authors: Insaf Ajili, Malik Mallem, Jean-Yves Didier

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Human motion recognition has been extensively increased in recent years due to its importance in a wide range of applications, such as human-computer interaction, intelligent surveillance, augmented reality, content-based video compression and retrieval, etc. However, it is still regarded as a challenging task especially in realistic scenarios. It can be seen as a general machine learning problem which requires an effective human motion representation and an efficient learning method. In this work, we introduce a descriptor based on Laban Movement Analysis technique, a formal and universal language for human movement, to capture both quantitative and qualitative aspects of movement. We use Discrete Hidden Markov Model (DHMM) for training and classification motions. We improve the classification algorithm by proposing two DHMMs for each motion class to process the motion sequence in two different directions, forward and backward. Such modification allows avoiding the misclassification that can happen when recognizing similar motions. Two experiments are conducted. In the first one, we evaluate our method on a public dataset, the Microsoft Research Cambridge-12 Kinect gesture data set (MSRC-12) which is a widely used dataset for evaluating action/gesture recognition methods. In the second experiment, we build a dataset composed of 10 gestures(Introduce yourself, waving, Dance, move, turn left, turn right, stop, sit down, increase velocity, decrease velocity) performed by 20 persons. The evaluation of the system includes testing the efficiency of our descriptor vector based on LMA with basic DHMM method and comparing the recognition results of the modified DHMM with the original one. Experiment results demonstrate that our method outperforms most of existing methods that used the MSRC-12 dataset, and a near perfect classification rate in our dataset.

Keywords: Human Motion Recognition, Motion representation, Laban Movement Analysis, Discrete Hidden Markov Model.

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Authors: Jean-Michel Sahut

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Despite the strong and consistent increase in the use of electronic payment methods worldwide, the diffusion of electronic wallets is still far from widespread. Analysis of the failure of electronic wallet uptake has either focused on technical issues or chosen to analyse a specific scheme. This article proposes a joint approach to analysing key factors affecting the adoption of e-wallets by using the ‘Technology Acceptance Model” [1] which we have expanded to take into account the cost of using e-wallets. We use this model to analyse Monéo, the only French electronic wallet still in operation.

Keywords: Electronic wallet, adoption, ICT, TAM, Monéo, electronic payment.

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Authors: G. A. Khalid, M. D. Jones, R. Prabhu, A. Mason-Jones, W. Whittington, H. Bakhtiarydavijani, P. S. Theobald

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Head injury in childhood is a common cause of death or permanent disability from injury. However, despite its frequency and significance, there is little understanding of how a child’s head responds during injurious loading. Whilst Infant Post Mortem Human Subject (PMHS) experimentation is a logical approach to understand injury biomechanics, it is the authors’ opinion that a lack of subject availability is hindering potential progress. Computer modelling adds great value when considering adult populations; however, its potential remains largely untapped for infant surrogates. The complexities of child growth and development, which result in age dependent changes in anatomy, geometry and physical response characteristics, present new challenges for computational simulation. Further geometric challenges are presented by the intricate infant cranial bones, which are separated by sutures and fontanelles and demonstrate a visible fibre orientation. This study presents an FE model of a newborn infant’s head, developed from high-resolution computer tomography scans, informed by published tissue material properties. To mimic the fibre orientation of immature cranial bone, anisotropic properties were applied to the FE cranial bone model, with elastic moduli representing the bone response both parallel and perpendicular to the fibre orientation. Biofiedility of the computational model was confirmed by global validation against published PMHS data, by replicating experimental impact tests with a series of computational simulations, in terms of head kinematic responses. Numerical results confirm that the FE head model’s mechanical response is in favourable agreement with the PMHS drop test results.

Keywords: Finite element analysis, impact simulation, infant head trauma, material properties, post mortem human subjects.

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Authors: Yukiko Sasaki Alam, Shahid Alam

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Syntactic parsing is vital for semantic treatment by many applications related to natural language processing (NLP), because form and content coincide in many cases. However, it has not yet reached the levels of reliable performance. By manually examining and analyzing individual machine translation output errors that involve syntax as well as semantics, this study attempts to discover what is required for improving syntactic and semantic parsing.

Keywords: Machine translation, error analysis, syntactic errors, knowledge required for parsing.

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Authors: Nadezda Pizika

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The paper discusses possible approaches of embedding the development of employability skills in the program curriculum. This paper contains analysis of the problem areas raised by employers regarding new graduates’ readiness to join workforce, the ways of possible improvements, and the actions required from different stakeholders. The case discussed in the paper is related to Computer and Information Science (CIS) Program offered at Higher Colleges of Technology (UAE).

Keywords: Curriculum Design, Employability Skills, Employers, Graduates.

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Authors: Hekmatpanah M., Fadavinia, A.

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Failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) is an effective technique for preventing potential problems and actions needed to error cause removal. On the other hand, the oil producing companies paly a critical role in the oil industry of Iran as a developing country out of which, Sepahan Oil Co. has a considerable contribution. The aim of this research is to show how FMEA could be applied and improve the quality of products at Sepahan Oil Co. For this purpose, the four liter production line of the company has been selected for investigation. The findings imply that the application of FMEA has reduced the scraps from 50000 ppm to 5000 ppm and has resulted in a 0.92 percent decrease of the oil waste.

Keywords: FMEA, Iran, Sepahan Oil Co., Canning, Waste, Scrap

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Authors: Giovanni Incerti

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The dynamic behaviour of a four-bar linkage driven by a velocity controlled DC motor is discussed in the paper. In particular the author presents the results obtained by means of a specifically developed software, which implements the mathematical models of all components of the system (linkage, transmission, electric motor, control devices). The use of this software enables a more efficient design approach, since it allows the designer to check, in a simple and immediate way, the dynamic behaviour of the mechanism, arising from different values of the system parameters.

Keywords: Four-bar linkage, Speed control, Dynamic analysis.

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Authors: Ilia Marchevsky, Victoriya Moreva

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The problem of incompressible steady flow simulation around an airfoil is discussed. For some simplest airfoils (circular, elliptical, Zhukovsky airfoils) the exact solution is known from complex analysis. It allows to compute the intensity of vortex layer which simulates the airfoil. Some modifications of the vortex element method are proposed and test computations are carried out. It-s shown that the these approaches are much more effective in comparison with the classical numerical scheme.

Keywords: Vortex element method, vortex layer, integral equation, ill-conditioned matrix.

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Authors: Harshit Vallecha, Prabha Bhola

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‘Energy for all’, is a global issue of concern for the past many years. Despite the number of technological advancements and innovations, significant numbers of people are living without access to electricity around the world. India, an emerging economy, tops the list of nations having the maximum number of residents living off the grid, thus raising global attention in past few years to provide clean and sustainable energy access solutions to all of its residents. It is evident from developed economies that centralized planning and electrification alone is not sufficient for meeting energy security. Implementation of off-grid and consumer-driven energy models like Decentralized Renewable Energy (DRE) systems have played a significant role in meeting the national energy demand in developed nations. Cases of DRE systems have been reported in developing countries like India for the past few years. This paper attempts to profile the status of DRE projects in the Indian context with their scope and relevance to ensure universal electrification. Diversified cases of DRE projects, particularly solar, biomass and micro hydro are identified in different Indian states. Critical factors affecting the sustainability of DRE projects are extracted with their interlinkages in the context of developers, beneficiaries and promoters involved in such projects. Socio-techno-economic indicators are identified through similar cases in the context of DRE projects. Exploratory factor analysis is performed to evaluate the critical sustainability factors followed by regression analysis to establish the relationship between the dependent and independent factors. The generated EFA-Regression model provides a basis to develop the sustainability and replicability framework for broader coverage of DRE projects in developing nations in order to attain the goal of universal electrification with least carbon emissions.

Keywords: Climate change, decentralized generation, electricity access, renewable energy.

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Authors: H. Asiaban, E. Farshidi

Abstract:

This paper presents a new true RMS-to-DC converter circuit based on a square-root-domain squarer/divider. The circuit is designed by employing up-down translinear loop and using of MOSFET transistors that operate in strong inversion saturation region. The converter offer advantages of two-quadrant input current, low circuit complexity, low supply voltage (1.2V) and immunity from the body effect. The circuit has been simulated by HSPICE. The simulation results are seen to conform to the theoretical analysis and shows benefits of the proposed circuit.

Keywords: Current-mode, squarer/divider, low-pass filter, converter, translinear loop, RMS-to-DC.

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Authors: Kung-Jen Tu, Danny Vernatha

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To assist individual departments within universities in their energy management tasks, this study explores the application of Building Information Modeling in establishing the ‘BIM based Energy Management Support System’ (BIM-EMSS). The BIM-EMSS consists of six components: (1) sensors installed for each occupant and each equipment, (2) electricity sub-meters (constantly logging lighting, HVAC, and socket electricity consumptions of each room), (3) BIM models of all rooms within individual departments’ facilities, (4) data warehouse (for storing occupancy status and logged electricity consumption data), (5) building energy management system that provides energy managers with various energy management functions, and (6) energy simulation tool (such as eQuest) that generates real time 'standard energy consumptions' data against which 'actual energy consumptions' data are compared and energy efficiency evaluated. Through the building energy management system, the energy manager is able to (a) have 3D visualization (BIM model) of each room, in which the occupancy and equipment status detected by the sensors and the electricity consumptions data logged are displayed constantly; (b) perform real time energy consumption analysis to compare the actual and standard energy consumption profiles of a space; (c) obtain energy consumption anomaly detection warnings on certain rooms so that energy management corrective actions can be further taken (data mining technique is employed to analyze the relation between space occupancy pattern with current space equipment setting to indicate an anomaly, such as when appliances turn on without occupancy); and (d) perform historical energy consumption analysis to review monthly and annually energy consumption profiles and compare them against historical energy profiles. The BIM-EMSS was further implemented in a research lab in the Department of Architecture of NTUST in Taiwan and implementation results presented to illustrate how it can be used to assist individual departments within universities in their energy management tasks.

Keywords: Sensor, electricity sub-meters, database, energy anomaly detection.

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Authors: Majid Amidpour, Parisa Karimi, Marzieh Joda

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For the last few years, release of burned undesirable by-products has become a challenging issue in oil industries. Flaring, as one of the main sources of air contamination, involves detrimental and long-lasting effects on human health and is considered a substantial reason for energy losses worldwide. This research involves studying the implications of two main flare gas recovery methods at three oil refineries, all in Iran as the case I, case II, and case III in which the production capacities are increasing respectively. In the proposed methods, flare gases are converted into more valuable products, before combustion by the flare networks. The first approach involves collecting, compressing and converting the flare gas to smokeless fuel which can be used in the fuel gas system of the refineries. The other scenario includes utilizing the flare gas as a feed into liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) production unit already established in the refineries. The processes of these scenarios are simulated, and the capital investment is calculated for each procedure. The cumulative profits of the scenarios are evaluated using Net Present Value method. Furthermore, the sensitivity analysis based on total propane and butane mole fraction is carried out to make a rational comparison for LPG production approach, and the results are illustrated for different mole fractions of propane and butane. As the mole fraction of propane and butane contained in LPG differs in summer and winter seasons, the results corresponding to LPG scenario are demonstrated for each season. The results of the simulations show that cumulative profit in fuel gas production scenario and LPG production rate increase with the capacity of the refineries. Moreover, the investment return time in LPG production method experiences a decline, followed by a rising trend with an increase in C₃ and C₄ content. The minimum value of time return occurs at propane and butane sum concentration values of 0.7, 0.6, and 0.7 in case I, II, and III, respectively. Based on comparison of the time of investment return and cumulative profit, fuel gas production is the superior scenario for three case studies.

Keywords: Flare gas reduction, liquefied petroleum gas, fuel gas, net present value method, sensitivity analysis.

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Authors: Farai Nyabadza

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Malaria is by far the world-s most persistent tropical parasitic disease and is endemic to tropical areas where the climatic and weather conditions allow continuous breeding of the mosquitoes that spread malaria. A mathematical model for the transmission of malaria with prophylaxis prevention is analyzed. The stability analysis of the equilibria is presented with the aim of finding threshold conditions under which malaria clears or persists in the human population. Our results suggest that eradication of mosquitoes and prophylaxis prevention can significantly reduce the malaria burden on the human population.

Keywords: Prophylaxis prevention, basic reproductive number, stability.

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Authors: Sadaf Moeez, Madiha Khalid, Zoya Khalid, Sania Shaheen, Sumbul Khalid

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Background: Inter-individual variation in response to metformin, which has been considered as a first line therapy for T2DM treatment is considerable. In the current study, it was aimed to investigate the impact of two genetic variants Leu125Phe (rs77474263) and Gly64Asp (rs77630697) in gene SLC47A1 on the clinical efficacy of metformin in T2DM Pakistani patients. Methods: The study included 800 T2DM patients (400 metformin responders and 400 metformin non-responders) along with 400 ethnically matched healthy individuals. The genotypes were determined by allele-specific polymerase chain reaction. In-silico analysis was done to confirm the effect of the two SNPs on the structure of genes. Association was statistically determined using SPSS software. Results: Minor allele frequency for rs77474263 and rs77630697 was 0.13 and 0.12. For SLC47A1 rs77474263 the homozygotes of one mutant allele ‘T’ (CT) of rs77474263 variant were fewer in metformin responders than metformin non-responders (29.2% vs. 35.5 %). Likewise, the efficacy was further reduced (7.2% vs. 4.0 %) in homozygotes of two copies of ‘T’ allele (TT). Remarkably, T2DM cases with two copies of allele ‘C’ (CC) had 2.11 times more probability to respond towards metformin monotherapy. For SLC47A1 rs77630697 the homozygotes of one mutant allele ‘A’ (GA) of rs77630697 variant were fewer in metformin responders than metformin non-responders (33.5% vs. 43.0 %). Likewise, the efficacy was further reduced (8.5% vs. 4.5%) in homozygotes of two copies of ‘A’ allele (AA). Remarkably, T2DM cases with two copies of allele ‘G’ (GG) had 2.41 times more probability to respond towards metformin monotherapy. In-silico analysis revealed that these two variants affect the structure and stability of their corresponding proteins. Conclusion: The present data suggest that SLC47A1 Leu125Phe (rs77474263) and Gly64Asp (rs77630697) polymorphisms were associated with the therapeutic response of metformin in T2DM patients of Pakistan.

Keywords: Diabetes, T2DM, SLC47A1, Pakistan, polymorphism.

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Authors: Zhenzhen Xu, Chunfu Shao, Shengyou Wang, Chunjiao Dong

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To improve the satisfaction of residents' travel, this paper analyzes the characteristics and influencing factors of urban residents' travel behavior. First, a Multinominal Logit Model (MNL) model is built to analyze the characteristics of residents' travel behavior, reveal the influence of individual attributes, family attributes and travel characteristics on the choice of travel mode, and identify the significant factors. Then put forward suggestions for policy improvement. Finally, Support Vector Machine (SVM) and Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) models are introduced to evaluate the policy effect. This paper selects Futian Street in Futian District, Shenzhen City for investigation and research. The results show that gender, age, education, income, number of cars owned, travel purpose, departure time, journey time, travel distance and times all have a significant influence on residents' choice of travel mode. Based on the above results, two policy improvement suggestions are put forward from reducing public transportation and non-motor vehicle travel time, and the policy effect is evaluated. Before the evaluation, the prediction effect of MNL, SVM and MLP models was evaluated. After parameter optimization, it was found that the prediction accuracy of the three models was 72.80%, 71.42%, and 76.42%, respectively. The MLP model with the highest prediction accuracy was selected to evaluate the effect of policy improvement. The results showed that after the implementation of the policy, the proportion of public transportation in plan 1 and plan 2 increased by 14.04% and 9.86%, respectively, while the proportion of private cars decreased by 3.47% and 2.54%, respectively. The proportion of car trips decreased obviously, while the proportion of public transport trips increased. It can be considered that the measures have a positive effect on promoting green trips and improving the satisfaction of urban residents, and can provide a reference for relevant departments to formulate transportation policies.

Keywords: Travel characteristics analysis, transportation choice, travel sharing rate, neural network model, traffic resource allocation.

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Authors: T. N. Sindhu, M. Aslam

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A comprehensive Bayesian analysis has been carried out in the context of informative and non-informative priors for the shape parameter of the Burr type X distribution under different symmetric and asymmetric loss functions. Elicitation of hyperparameter through prior predictive approach is also discussed. Also we derive the expression for posterior predictive distributions, predictive intervals and the credible Intervals. As an illustration, comparisons of these estimators are made through simulation study.

Keywords: Credible Intervals, Loss Functions, Posterior Predictive Distributions, Predictive Intervals.

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Authors: Michael A. Unbehauen, Gregory D. Sloan, Alberto J. Squatrito

Abstract:

Missile proliferation and global stability are intrinsically linked. Missile threats continually appear at the forefront of global security issues. North Korea’s recently demonstrated nuclear and intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) capabilities, for the first time since the Cold War, renewed public interest in strategic missile defense capabilities. To protect from limited ICBM attacks from so-called rogue actors, the United States developed the Ground-based Midcourse Defense (GMD) system. This study examines if the GMD missile defense shield has contributed to a safer world or triggered a new arms race. Based upon increased missile-related developments and the lack of adherence to international missile treaties, it is generally perceived that the GMD system is a destabilizing factor for global security. By examining the current state of arms control treaties as well as existing missile arsenals and ongoing efforts in technologies to overcome U.S. missile defenses, this study seeks to analyze the contribution of GMD to global stability. A thorough investigation cannot ignore that, through the establishment of this limited capability, the U.S. violated longstanding, successful weapons treaties and caused concern among states that possess ICBMs. GMD capability contributes to the perception that ICBM arsenals could become ineffective, creating an imbalance in favor of the United States, leading to increased global instability and tension. While blame for the deterioration of global stability and non-adherence to arms control treaties is often placed on U.S. missile defense, the facts do not necessarily support this view. The notion of a renewed arms race due to GMD is supported neither by current missile arsenals nor by the inevitable development of new and enhanced missile technology, to include multiple independently targeted reentry vehicles (MIRVs), maneuverable reentry vehicles (MaRVs), and hypersonic glide vehicles (HGVs). The methodology in this study encapsulates a period of time, pre- and post-GMD introduction, while analyzing international treaty adherence, missile counts and types, and research in new missile technologies. The decline in international treaty adherence, coupled with a measurable increase in the number and types of missiles or research in new missile technologies during the period after the introduction of GMD, could be perceived as a clear indicator of GMD contributing to global instability. However, research into improved technology (MIRV, MaRV and HGV) prior to GMD, as well as a decline of various global missile inventories and testing of systems during this same period, would seem to invalidate this theory. U.S. adversaries have exploited the perception of the U.S. missile defense shield as a destabilizing factor as a pretext to strengthen and modernize their militaries and justify their policies. As a result, it can be concluded that global stability has not significantly decreased due to GMD; but rather, the natural progression of technological and missile development would inherently include innovative and dynamic approaches to target engagement, deterrence, and national defense.

Keywords: Arms control, arms race, global security, GMD, ICBM, missile defense, proliferation.

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