Search results for: uncertain initial condition.

Authors: T. Hopkin, S. Lu, P. Rogers, M. Sexton

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Housing Associations (HAs) contribute circa 20% of the UK’s housing supply. HAs are however under increasing pressure as a result of funding cuts and rent reductions. Due to the increased pressure, a number of processes are currently being reviewed by HAs, especially how they manage and learn from defects. Learning from defects is considered a useful approach to achieving defect reduction within the UK housebuilding industry. This paper contributes to our understanding of how HAs learn from defects by undertaking an initial round table discussion with key HA stakeholders as part of an ongoing collaborative research project with the National House Building Council (NHBC) to better understand how house builders and HAs learn from defects to reduce their prevalence. The initial discussion shows that defect information runs through a number of groups, both internal and external of a HA during both the defects management process and organizational learning (OL) process. Furthermore, HAs are reliant on capturing and recording defect data as the foundation for the OL process. During the OL process defect data analysis is the primary enabler to recognizing a need for a change to organizational routines. When a need for change has been recognized, new options are typically pursued to design out defects via updates to a HAs Employer’s Requirements. Proposed solutions are selected by a review board and committed to organizational routine. After implementing a change, both structured and unstructured feedback is sought to establish the change’s success. The findings from the HA discussion demonstrates that OL can achieve defect reduction within the house building sector in the UK. The paper concludes by outlining a potential ‘learning from defects model’ for the housebuilding industry as well as describing future work.

Keywords: Defects, new homes, housing associations, organizational learning.

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Authors: Catalin Gales, Ionel Dumitrel Ghiba

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This paper studies questions of continuous data dependence and uniqueness for solutions of initial boundary value problems in linear micropolar thermoelastic mixtures. Logarithmic convexity arguments are used to establish results with no definiteness assumptions upon the internal energy.

Keywords: Cellular materials, continuous dependence, micro polar mixtures, uniqueness.

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Authors: N. Ngadi, J. Abrahamson, C. Fee, K. Morison

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Adsorption of proteins onto a solid surface is believed to be the initial and controlling step in biofouling. A better knowledge of the fouling process can be obtained by controlling the formation of the first protein layer at a solid surface. A number of methods have been investigated to inhibit adsorption of proteins. In this study, the adsorption kinetics of

Keywords: E-casein, QCM-D, stainless steel, bimodal brush, PEG

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Authors: M. A. Putera, N. Yasufuku, A. Alowaisy, R. Ishikura, J. G. Hussary, A. Rifa’i

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Indonesia’s government has planned a project for a high-speed railway connecting the capital cities, Jakarta and Surabaya, about 700 km. Based on that location, it has been planning construction above the lowland soil region. The lowland soil region comprises cohesive soil with high water content and high compressibility index, which in fact, led to a settlement problem. Among the variety of railway track structures, the adoption of the ballastless track was used effectively to reduce the settlement; it provided a lightweight structure and minimized workspace. Contradictorily, deploying this thin layer structure above the lowland area was compensated with several problems, such as lack of bearing capacity and deflection behavior during traffic loading. It is necessary to combine with ground improvement to assure a settlement behavior on the clayey soil. Reflecting on the assurance of strength increment and working period, those were convinced by adopting methods such as cement-treated soil as the substructure of railway track. Particularly, evaluating mechanical properties in the field has been well known by using the plate load test and cone penetration test. However, observing an increment of mechanical properties has uncertainty, especially for evaluating cement-treated soil on the substructure. The current quality control of cement-treated soils was established by laboratory tests. Moreover, using small strain devices measurement in the laboratory can predict more reliable results that are identical to field measurement tests. Aims of this research are to show an intercorrelation of confining pressure with the initial condition of the Young’s modulus (E0), Poisson ratio (υ0) and Shear modulus (G0) within small strain ranges. Furthermore, discrepancies between those parameters were also investigated. Experimental result confirmed the intercorrelation between cement content and confining pressure with a power function. In addition, higher cement ratios have discrepancies, conversely with low mixing ratios.

Keywords: Cement content, confining pressure, high-speed railway, small strain ranges.

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Authors: S. Joseph Antony, Z. K. Jahanger

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Soils are subjected to cyclic loading in situ in situations such as during earthquakes and in the compaction of pavements. Investigations on the local scale measurement of the displacements of the grain and failure patterns within the soil bed under the cyclic loading conditions are rather limited. In this paper, using the digital particle image velocimetry (DPIV), local scale displacement fields of a dense sand medium interacting with a rigid footing are measured under the plane-strain condition for two commonly used types of cyclic loading, and the quasi-static loading condition for the purposes of comparison. From the displacement measurements of the grains, the failure envelopes of the sand media are also presented. The results show that, the ultimate cyclic bearing capacity (qultcyc) occurred corresponding to a relatively higher settlement value when compared with that of under the quasi-static loading. For the sand media under the cyclic loading conditions considered here, the displacement fields in the soil media occurred more widely in the horizontal direction and less deeper along the vertical direction when compared with that of under the quasi-static loading. The 'dead zone' in the sand grains beneath the footing is identified for all types of the loading conditions studied here. These grain-scale characteristics have implications on the resulting bulk bearing capacity of the sand media in footing-sand interaction problems.

Keywords: Cyclic loading, DPIV, settlement, soil-structure interactions, strip footing.

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Authors: Mohammad M. Toufigh, Ahad Ouria

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This paper presents an analytical method to solve governing consolidation parabolic partial differential equation (PDE) for inelastic porous Medium (soil) with consideration of variation of equation coefficient under cyclic loading. Since under cyclic loads, soil skeleton parameters change, this would introduce variable coefficient of parabolic PDE. Classical theory would not rationalize consolidation phenomenon in such condition. In this research, a method based on time space mapping to a virtual time space along with superimposing rule is employed to solve consolidation of inelastic soils in cyclic condition. Changes of consolidation coefficient applied in solution by modification of loading and unloading duration by introducing virtual time. Mapping function is calculated based on consolidation partial differential equation results. Based on superimposing rule a set of continuous static loads in specified times used instead of cyclic load. A set of laboratory consolidation tests under cyclic load along with numerical calculations were performed in order to verify the presented method. Numerical solution and laboratory tests results showed accuracy of presented method.

Keywords: Mapping, Consolidation, Inelastic porous medium, Cyclic loading, Superimposing rule.

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Authors: Masaki Ohno, Cervinia Manalo, Tetsuji Okuda, Satoshi Nakai, Wataru Nishijima

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Reverse osmosis (RO) membranes have been widely used for desalination to purify water for drinking and other purposes. Although at present most RO membranes have no resistance to chlorine, chlorine-resistant membranes are being developed. Therefore, direct chlorine treatment or chlorine washing will be an option in preventing biofouling on chlorine-resistant membranes. Furthermore, if particle accumulation control is possible by using chlorine washing, expensive pretreatment for particle removal can be removed or simplified. The objective of this study was to determine the effective hypochlorite washing condition required for controlling biofilm formation and inorganic particle accumulation on RO membrane in a continuous flow channel with RO membrane and spacer. In this study, direct chlorine washing was done by soaking fouled RO membranes in hypochlorite solution and fluorescence intensity was used to quantify biofilm on the membrane surface. After 48 h of soaking the membranes in high fouling potential waters, the fluorescence intensity decreased to 0 from 470 using the following washing conditions: 10 mg/L chlorine concentration, 2 times/d washing interval, and 30 min washing time. The chlorine concentration required to control biofilm formation decreased as the chlorine concentration (0.5–10 mg/L), the washing interval (1–4 times/d), or the washing time (1–30 min) increased. For the sample solutions used in the study, 10 mg/L chlorine concentration with 2 times/d interval, and 5 min washing time was required for biofilm control. The optimum chlorine washing conditions obtained from soaking experiments proved to be applicable also in controlling biofilm formation in continuous flow experiments. Moreover, chlorine washing employed in controlling biofilm with suspended particles resulted in lower amounts of organic (0.03 mg/cm²) and inorganic (0.14 mg/cm²) deposits on the membrane than that for sample water without chlorine washing (0.14 mg/cm² and 0.33 mg/cm², respectively). The amount of biofilm formed was 79% controlled by continuous washing with 10 mg/L of free chlorine concentration, and the inorganic accumulation amount decreased by 58% to levels similar to that of pure water with kaolin (0.17 mg/cm²) as feed water. These results confirmed the acceleration of particle accumulation due to biofilm formation, and that the inhibition of biofilm growth can almost completely reduce further particle accumulation. In addition, effective hypochlorite washing condition which can control both biofilm formation and particle accumulation could be achieved.

Keywords: Biofouling control, hypochlorite, reverse osmosis, washing condition optimization.

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Authors: M. Akbari, S. Sadodin

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In this paper, the melting of a semi-infinite body as a result of a moving laser beam has been studied. Because the Fourier heat transfer equation at short times and large dimensions does not have sufficient accuracy; a non-Fourier form of heat transfer equation has been used. Due to the fact that the beam is moving in x direction, the temperature distribution and the melting pool shape are not asymmetric. As a result, the problem is a transient threedimensional problem. Therefore, thermophysical properties such as heat conductivity coefficient, density and heat capacity are functions of temperature and material states. The enthalpy technique, used for the solution of phase change problems, has been used in an explicit finite volume form for the hyperbolic heat transfer equation. This technique has been used to calculate the transient temperature distribution in the semi-infinite body and the growth rate of the melt pool. In order to validate the numerical results, comparisons were made with experimental data. Finally, the results of this paper were compared with similar problem that has used the Fourier theory. The comparison shows the influence of infinite speed of heat propagation in Fourier theory on the temperature distribution and the melt pool size.

Keywords: Non-Fourier, Enthalpy technique, Melt pool, Radiational boundary condition

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Authors: Parvinder S. Sandhu, Manisha Prashar, Pourush Bassi, Atul Bisht

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Software effort estimation is the process of predicting the most realistic use of effort required to develop or maintain software based on incomplete, uncertain and/or noisy input. Effort estimates may be used as input to project plans, iteration plans, budgets. There are various models like Halstead, Walston-Felix, Bailey-Basili, Doty and GA Based models which have already used to estimate the software effort for projects. In this study Statistical Models, Fuzzy-GA and Neuro-Fuzzy (NF) Inference Systems are experimented to estimate the software effort for projects. The performances of the developed models were tested on NASA software project datasets and results are compared with the Halstead, Walston-Felix, Bailey-Basili, Doty and Genetic Algorithm Based models mentioned in the literature. The result shows that the NF Model has the lowest MMRE and RMSE values. The NF Model shows the best results as compared with the Fuzzy-GA based hybrid Inference System and other existing Models that are being used for the Effort Prediction with lowest MMRE and RMSE values.

Keywords: Neuro-Fuzzy Model, Halstead Model, Walston-Felix Model, Bailey-Basili Model, Doty Model, GA Based Model, Genetic Algorithm.

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Authors: Mohammad Hossein Hojjati , Fardin Boustani

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Groundwater is one of the most important water resources in Fars province. Based on this study, 95 percent of the total annual water consumption in Fars is used for agriculture, whereas the percentages for domestic and industrial uses are 4 and 1 percent, respectively. Population growth, urban and industrial growth, and agricultural development in Fars have created a condition of water stress. In this province, farmers and other users are pumping groundwater faster than its natural replenishment rate, causing a continuous drop in groundwater tables and depletion of this resource. In this research variation of groundwater level , their effects and ways to help control groundwater levels in some plains of Fars were evaluated .Excessive exploitation of groundwater in Darab, Jahrom, Estahban, Arsanjan, Khir and Niriz plains of Fars caused the groundwater levels fall too fast or to unacceptable levels. The average drawdown of the water table in Arsanjan, Khir. Estahban and Niriz plain plains were 12,8, 9 and 6 meters during 16,11,11 and 13 years ago respectively. This not only reduces available water resources and well yields but also can saline water intrusion, reductions in river flow and in wetland areas , drying springs, and ground subsidence, considerable increase in pumping costs and a significant decline in crop yields as a result of the increasing salinity. Finally based on situation and condition of the aquifer some suggestions are recommended.

Keywords: Fars province , ground water overdraft , water table

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Authors: Maria Isabel Garcia-Planas, Maria Victoria Garcia-Camba

Abstract:

Recent advances in cognitive neuroscience have allowed a step forward in perceiving the processes involved in learning from the point of view of acquiring new information or the modification of existing mental content. The evoked potentials technique reveals how basic brain processes interact to achieve adequate and flexible behaviours. The objective of this work, using evoked potentials, is to study if it is possible to distinguish if a patient suffers a specific type of learning disorder to decide the possible therapies to follow. The methodology used in this work is to analyze the dynamics of different brain areas during a cognitive activity to find the relationships between the other areas analyzed to understand the functioning of neural networks better. Also, the latest advances in neuroscience have revealed the exis-tence of different brain activity in the learning process that can be highlighted through the use of non-invasive, innocuous, low-cost and easy-access techniques such as, among others, the evoked potentials that can help to detect early possible neurodevelopmental difficulties for their subsequent assessment and therapy. From the study of the amplitudes and latencies of the evoked potentials, it is possible to detect brain alterations in the learning process, specifically in dyscalculia, to achieve specific corrective measures for the application of personalized psycho-pedagogical plans that allow obtaining an optimal integral development of the affected people.

Keywords: dyscalculia, neurodevelopment, evoked potentials, learning disabilities, neural networks

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Authors: I. Kurashvili, G. Darsavelidze, T. Kimeridze, G. Chubinidze, I. Tabatadze

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At present, a number of modern semiconductor devices based on SiGe alloys have been created in which the latest achievements of high technologies are used. These devices might cause significant changes to networking, computing, and space technology. In the nearest future new materials based on SiGe will be able to restrict the A³B⁵ and Si technologies and firmly establish themselves in medium frequency electronics. Effective realization of these prospects requires the solution of prediction and controlling of structural state and dynamical physical –mechanical properties of new SiGe materials. Based on these circumstances, a complex investigation of structural defects and structural-sensitive dynamic mechanical characteristics of SiGe alloys under different external impacts (deformation, radiation, thermal cycling) acquires great importance. Internal friction (IF) and shear modulus temperature and amplitude dependences of the monocrystalline boron-doped Si_1-xGe_x(x≤0.05) alloys grown by Czochralski technique is studied in initial and ⁶⁰Co gamma-irradiated states. In the initial samples, a set of dislocation origin relaxation processes and accompanying modulus defects are revealed in a temperature interval of 400-800 ⁰C. It is shown that after gamma-irradiation intensity of relaxation internal friction in the vicinity of 280 ⁰C increases and simultaneously activation parameters of high temperature relaxation processes reveal clear rising. It is proposed that these changes of dynamical mechanical characteristics might be caused by a decrease of the dislocation mobility in the Cottrell atmosphere enriched by the radiation defects.

Keywords: Gamma-irradiation, internal friction, shear modulus, SiGe alloys.

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Authors: P. V. S. Mascarenhas, B. C. P. Albuquerque, D. J. F. Campos, L. L. Almeida, V. R. Domingues, L. C. S. M. Ozelim

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Retaining slope structures are increasingly considered in geotechnical engineering projects due to extensive urban cities growth. These kinds of engineering constructions may present instabilities over the time and may require reinforcement or even rebuilding of the structure. In this context, statistical analysis is an important tool for decision making regarding retaining structures. This study approaches the failure probability of the construction of a retaining wall over the debris of an old and collapsed one. The new solution’s extension length will be of approximately 350 m and will be located over the margins of the Lake Paranoá, Brasilia, in the capital of Brazil. The building process must also account for the utilization of the ruins as a caisson. A series of in situ and laboratory experiments defined local soil strength parameters. A Standard Penetration Test (SPT) defined the in situ soil stratigraphy. Also, the parameters obtained were verified using soil data from a collection of masters and doctoral works from the University of Brasília, which is similar to the local soil. Initial studies show that the concrete wall is the proper solution for this case, taking into account the technical, economic and deterministic analysis. On the other hand, in order to better analyze the statistical significance of the factor-of-safety factors obtained, a Monte Carlo analysis was performed for the concrete wall and two more initial solutions. A comparison between the statistical and risk results generated for the different solutions indicated that a Gabion solution would better fit the financial and technical feasibility of the project.

Keywords: Economical analysis, probability of failure, retaining walls, statistical analysis.

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Authors: S.Krishnamoorthy, R.Arul Doss

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We introduce the notion of commuting regular Γ- semiring and discuss some properties of commuting regular Γ- semiring. We also obtain a necessary and sufficient condition for Γ-semiring to possess commuting regularity.

Keywords: Commutative Γ-semiring, Idempotent Γ-semiring, Rectangular Γ-band, Commuting regular Γ-semiring, Clifford Γ-semiring.

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Authors: Venerando E. Amaro, Francisco Gabriel F. de Lima, Marcelo S.T. Santos

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The morphological short-term evolution of Ponta do Tubarão Island (PTI) was investigated through high accurate surveys based on post-processed kinematic (PPK) relative positioning on Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS). PTI is part of a barrier island system on a high energy northeast Brazilian coastal environment and also an area of high environmental sensitivity. Surveys were carried out quarterly over a two years period from May 2010 to May 2012. This paper assesses statically the performance of digital elevation models (DEM) derived from different interpolation methods to represent morphologic features and to quantify volumetric changes and TIN models shown the best results to that purposes. The MDE allowed quantifying surfaces and volumes in detail as well as identifying the most vulnerable segments of the PTI to erosion and/or accumulation of sediments and relate the alterations to climate conditions. The coastal setting and geometry of PTI protects a significant mangrove ecosystem and some oil and gas facilities installed in the vicinities from damaging effects of strong oceanwaves and currents. Thus, the maintenance of PTI is extremely required but the prediction of its longevity is uncertain because results indicate an irregularity of sedimentary balance and a substantial decline in sediment supply to this coastal area.

Keywords: DEM, GNSS, short-term monitoring, Brazil.

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Authors: Mohsen A. Bakouri, Andrey V. Savkin, Abdul-Hakeem H. Alomari, Robert F. Salamonsen, Einly Lim, Nigel H. Lovell

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Physiological control of a left ventricle assist device (LVAD) is generally a complicated task due to diverse operating environments and patient variability. In this work, a tracking control algorithm based on sliding mode and feed forward control for a class of discrete-time single input single output (SISO) nonlinear uncertain systems is presented. The controller was developed to track the reference trajectory to a set operating point without inducing suction in the ventricle. The controller regulates the estimated mean pulsatile flow Qp and mean pulsatility index of pump rotational speed PIω that was generated from a model of the assist device. We recall the principle of the sliding mode control theory then we combine the feed-forward control design with the sliding mode control technique to follow the reference trajectory. The uncertainty is replaced by its upper and lower boundary. The controller was tested in a computer simulation covering two scenarios (preload and ventricular contractility). The simulation results prove the effectiveness and the robustness of the proposed controller

Keywords: robust control system, discrete-sliding mode, left ventricularle assist devicse, pulsatility index.

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Authors: P. K. Singhal, R. Naresh, V. Sharma

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This paper presents the three optimization models, namely New Binary Artificial Bee Colony (NBABC) algorithm, NBABC with Local Search (NBABC-LS), and NBABC with Genetic Crossover (NBABC-GC) for solving the Wind-Thermal Unit Commitment (WTUC) problem. The uncertain nature of the wind power is incorporated using the Weibull probability density function, which is used to calculate the overestimation and underestimation costs associated with the wind power fluctuation. The NBABC algorithm utilizes a mechanism based on the dissimilarity measure between binary strings for generating the binary solutions in WTUC problem. In NBABC algorithm, an intelligent scout bee phase is proposed that replaces the abandoned solution with the global best solution. The local search operator exploits the neighboring region of the current solutions, whereas the integration of genetic crossover with the NBABC algorithm increases the diversity in the search space and thus avoids the problem of local trappings encountered with the NBABC algorithm. These models are then used to decide the units on/off status, whereas the lambda iteration method is used to dispatch the hourly load demand among the committed units. The effectiveness of the proposed models is validated on an IEEE 10-unit thermal system combined with a wind farm over the planning period of 24 hours.

Keywords: Artificial bee colony algorithm, economic dispatch, unit commitment, wind power.

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Authors: P. K. Singhal, R. Naresh, V. Sharma

Abstract:

This paper presents the three optimization models, namely New Binary Artificial Bee Colony (NBABC) algorithm, NBABC with Local Search (NBABC-LS), and NBABC with Genetic Crossover (NBABC-GC) for solving the Wind-Thermal Unit Commitment (WTUC) problem. The uncertain nature of the wind power is incorporated using the Weibull probability density function, which is used to calculate the overestimation and underestimation costs associated with the wind power fluctuation. The NBABC algorithm utilizes a mechanism based on the dissimilarity measure between binary strings for generating the binary solutions in WTUC problem. In NBABC algorithm, an intelligent scout bee phase is proposed that replaces the abandoned solution with the global best solution. The local search operator exploits the neighboring region of the current solutions, whereas the integration of genetic crossover with the NBABC algorithm increases the diversity in the search space and thus avoids the problem of local trappings encountered with the NBABC algorithm. These models are then used to decide the units on/off status, whereas the lambda iteration method is used to dispatch the hourly load demand among the committed units. The effectiveness of the proposed models is validated on an IEEE 10-unit thermal system combined with a wind farm over the planning period of 24 hours.

Keywords: Artificial bee colony algorithm, economic dispatch, unit commitment, wind power.

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Authors: Rashid S. Mohammad, Shicheng Zhang, Sun Lu, Syed Jamal-Ud-Din, Xinzhe Zhao

Abstract:

A compositional reservoir simulation model (CMG-GEM) was used for cyclic CO₂ injection process in unconventional tight reservoir. Cyclic CO₂ injection is an enhanced oil recovery process consisting of injection, shut-in, and production. The study of cyclic CO₂ injection and hydrocarbon recovery in ultra-low permeability reservoirs is mainly a function of rock, fluid, and operational parameters. CMG-GEM was used to study several design parameters of cyclic CO₂ injection process to distinguish the parameters with maximum effect on the oil recovery and to comprehend the behavior of cyclic CO₂ injection in tight reservoir. On the other hand, permeability reduction induced by asphaltene precipitation is one of the major issues in the oil industry due to its plugging onto the porous media which reduces the oil productivity. In addition to asphaltene deposition, solubility of CO₂ in the aquifer is one of the safest and permanent trapping techniques when considering CO₂ storage mechanisms in geological formations. However, the effects of the above uncertain parameters on the process of CO₂ enhanced oil recovery have not been understood systematically. Hence, it is absolutely necessary to study the most significant parameters which dominate the process. The main objective of this study is to improve techniques for designing cyclic CO₂ injection process while considering the effects of asphaltene deposition and solubility of CO₂ in the brine in order to prevent asphaltene precipitation, minimize CO₂ emission, optimize cyclic CO₂ injection, and maximize oil production.

Keywords: Tight reservoirs, cyclic O2 injection, asphaltene, solubility, reservoir simulation.

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Authors: Henry Munoz, Muhammad Mohsan, Takashi Kiyota

Abstract:

Strength and deformability characteristics of a liquefiable sand deposit including the development of earthquake-induced shear stress and shear strain as well as soil softening via the progressive degradation of shear modulus were studied via shaking table experiments. To do so, a model of a liquefiable sand deposit was constructed and densely instrumented where accelerations, pressures, and displacements at different locations were continuously monitored. Furthermore, the confinement effects on the strength and deformation characteristics of the liquefiable sand deposit due to an external surcharge by placing a heavy concrete slab (i.e. the model of an actual structural rigid pavement) on the ground surface were examined. The results indicate that as the number of seismic-loading cycles increases, the sand deposit softens progressively as large shear strains take place in different sand elements. Liquefaction state is reached after the combined effects of the progressive degradation of the initial shear modulus associated with the continuous decrease in the mean principal stress, and the buildup of the excess of pore pressure takes place in the sand deposit. Finally, the confinement effects given by a concrete slab placed on the surface of the sand deposit resulted in a favorable increasing in the initial shear modulus, an increase in the mean principal stress and a decrease in the softening rate (i.e. the decreasing rate in shear modulus) of the sand, thus making the onset of liquefaction to take place at a later stage. This is, only after the sand deposit having a concrete slab experienced a higher number of seismic loading cycles liquefaction took place, in contrast to an ordinary sand deposit having no concrete slab.

Keywords: Liquefaction, shaking table, shear modulus degradation, earthquake.

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Authors: Seyedvahid Najafi, Viliam Makis

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In recent years, maintenance optimization has attracted special attention due to the growth of industrial systems complexity. Maintenance costs are high for many systems, and preventive maintenance is effective when it increases operations' reliability and safety at a reduced cost. The novelty of this research is to consider general repair in the modeling of multi-unit series systems and solve the maintenance problem for such systems using the semi-Markov decision process (SMDP) framework. We propose an opportunistic maintenance policy for a series system composed of two main units. Unit 1, which is more expensive than unit 2, is subjected to condition monitoring, and its deterioration is modeled using a gamma process. Unit 1 hazard rate is estimated by the proportional hazards model (PHM), and two hazard rate control limits are considered as the thresholds of maintenance interventions for unit 1. Maintenance is performed on unit 2, considering an age control limit. The objective is to find the optimal control limits and minimize the long-run expected average cost per unit time. The proposed algorithm is applied to a numerical example to compare the effectiveness of the proposed policy (policy Ⅰ) with policy Ⅱ, which is similar to policy Ⅰ, but instead of general repair, replacement is performed. Results show that policy Ⅰ leads to lower average cost compared with policy Ⅱ. 

Keywords: Condition-based maintenance, proportional hazards model, semi-Markov decision process, two-unit series systems.

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Authors: D. Kaczorek

Abstract:

Internal insulation of external walls is often problematic due to increased moisture content in the wall and interstitial or surface condensation risk. In this paper, the hygrothermal performance of prefabricated, concrete, large panel, external wall typical for WK70 system, commonly used in Poland in the 70’s, with inside, additional insulation was investigated. Thermal insulation board made out of hygroscopic, natural materials with moisture buffer capacity and extruded polystyrene (EPS) board was used as interior insulation. Experience with this natural insulation is rare in Poland. The analysis was performed using WUFI software. First of all, the impact of various standard boundary conditions on the behavior of the different wall assemblies was tested. The comparison of results showed that the moisture class according to the EN ISO 13788 leads to too high values of total moisture content in the wall since the boundary condition according to the EN 15026 should be usually applied. Then, hygrothermal 1D-simulations were conducted by WUFI Pro for analysis of internally added insulation, and the weak point like the joint of the wall with the concrete ceiling was verified using 2D simulations. Results showed that, in the Warsaw climate and the indoor conditions adopted in accordance with EN 15026, in the tested wall assemblies, regardless of the type of interior insulation, there would not be any problems with moisture - inside the structure and on the interior surface.

Keywords: Concrete large panel wall, hygrothermal simulation, internal insulation, moisture related issues.

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Authors: Brian A. Smith, Ronald W. McClendon, Gerrit Hoogenboom

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The mitigation of crop loss due to damaging freezes requires accurate air temperature prediction models. Previous work established that the Ward-style artificial neural network (ANN) is a suitable tool for developing such models. The current research focused on developing ANN models with reduced average prediction error by increasing the number of distinct observations used in training, adding additional input terms that describe the date of an observation, increasing the duration of prior weather data included in each observation, and reexamining the number of hidden nodes used in the network. Models were created to predict air temperature at hourly intervals from one to 12 hours ahead. Each ANN model, consisting of a network architecture and set of associated parameters, was evaluated by instantiating and training 30 networks and calculating the mean absolute error (MAE) of the resulting networks for some set of input patterns. The inclusion of seasonal input terms, up to 24 hours of prior weather information, and a larger number of processing nodes were some of the improvements that reduced average prediction error compared to previous research across all horizons. For example, the four-hour MAE of 1.40°C was 0.20°C, or 12.5%, less than the previous model. Prediction MAEs eight and 12 hours ahead improved by 0.17°C and 0.16°C, respectively, improvements of 7.4% and 5.9% over the existing model at these horizons. Networks instantiating the same model but with different initial random weights often led to different prediction errors. These results strongly suggest that ANN model developers should consider instantiating and training multiple networks with different initial weights to establish preferred model parameters.

Keywords: Decision support systems, frost protection, fruit, time-series prediction, weather modeling

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Authors: Pegah Farshadmanesh, Jamshid Mohammadi, Mehdi Modares

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In nearly all earthquakes of the past century that resulted in moderate to significant damage, the occurrence of postearthquake fire ignition (PEFI) has imposed a serious hazard and caused severe damage, especially in urban areas. In order to reduce the loss of life and property caused by post-earthquake fires, there is a crucial need for predictive models to estimate the PEFI risk. The parameters affecting PEFI risk can be categorized as: 1) factors influencing fire ignition in normal (non-earthquake) condition, including floor area, building category, ignitability, type of appliance, and prevention devices, and 2) earthquake related factors contributing to the PEFI risk, including building vulnerability and earthquake characteristics such as intensity, peak ground acceleration, and peak ground velocity. State-of-the-art statistical PEFI risk models are solely based on limited available earthquake data, and therefore they cannot predict the PEFI risk for areas with insufficient earthquake records since such records are needed in estimating the PEFI model parameters. In this paper, the correlation between normal condition ignition risk, peak ground acceleration, and PEFI risk is examined in an effort to offer a means for predicting post-earthquake ignition events. An illustrative example is presented to demonstrate how such correlation can be employed in a seismic area to predict PEFI hazard.

Keywords: Fire risk, post-earthquake fire ignition (PEFI), risk management, seismicity.

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Authors: Lei Zhao, Yi Song, Tim Dunne, Jiaxiang (Jason) Ren, Wenhan Yue, Lei Yang, Li Wen, Yu Liu

Abstract:

Fasting dissolving magnesium (DM) alloy technology has contributed significantly to the “Shale Revolution” in oil and gas industry. This application requires DM downhole tools dissolving initially at a slow rate, rapidly accelerating to a high rate after certain period of operation time (typically 8 h to 2 days), a contradicting requirement that can hardly be addressed by traditional Mg alloying or processing itself. Premature disintegration has been broadly reported in downhole DM tool from field trials. To address this issue, “temporary” thin polymers of various formulations are currently coated onto DM surface to delay its initial dissolving. Due to conveying parts, harsh downhole condition, and high dissolving rate of the base material, the current delay coatings relying on pure polymers are found to perform well only at low temperature (typical < 100 ℃) and parts without sharp edges or corners, as severe geometries prevent high quality thin film coatings from forming effectively. In this study, a coating technology combining Plasma Electrolytic Oxide (PEO) coatings with advanced thin film deposition has been developed, which can delay DM complex parts (with sharp corners) in corrosive fluid at 150 ℃ for over 2 days. Synergistic effects between porous hard PEO coating and chemical inert elastic-polymer sealing leads to its delaying dissolution improvement, and strong chemical/physical bonding between these two layers has been found to play essential role. Microstructure of this advanced coating and compatibility between PEO and various polymer selections has been thoroughly investigated and a model is also proposed to explain its delaying performance. This study could not only benefit oil and gas industry to unplug their High Temperature High Pressure (HTHP) unconventional resources inaccessible before, but also potentially provides a technical route for other industries (e.g., bio-medical, automobile, aerospace) where primer anti-corrosive protection on light Mg alloy is highly demanded.

Keywords: Dissolvable magnesium, coating, plasma electrolytic oxide, sealer.

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Authors: Melvin Chan, Chew Lee Teo

Abstract:

There has been a growing emphasis in elevating the teachers’ proficiency and competencies through continuing professional development (CPD) opportunities. In this era of a Volatile, Uncertain, Complex, Ambiguous (VUCA) world, teachers are expected to be collaborative designers, critical thinkers and creative builders. However, many of the CPD structures are still revolving in the model of transmission, which stands in contradiction to the cultivation of future-ready teachers for the innovative world of emerging technologies. This article puts forward the framing of CPD through a Principle-Based, Technological-Driven Knowledge Building Approach grounded in the essence of andragogy and progressive learning theories where growth is best exemplified through an authentic immersion in a social/community experience-based setting. Putting this Knowledge Building Professional Development Model (KBPDM) in operation via a Professional Learning Team (PLT) situated in a Secondary School in Singapore, research findings reveal that the intervention has led to a fundamental change in the learning paradigm of the teachers, henceforth equipping and empowering them successfully in their pedagogical design and practices for a 21^st century classroom experience. This article concludes with the possibility in leveraging the Learning Analytics to deepen the CPD experiences for educators.

Keywords: Continual professional development, knowledge building, learning paradigm, andragogy.

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Authors: Kasthurirangan Gopalakrishnan, Marshall R. Thompson, Anshu Manik

Abstract:

This paper describes the use of artificial neural networks (ANN) for predicting non-linear layer moduli of flexible airfield pavements subjected to new generation aircraft (NGA) loading, based on the deflection profiles obtained from Heavy Weight Deflectometer (HWD) test data. The HWD test is one of the most widely used tests for routinely assessing the structural integrity of airport pavements in a non-destructive manner. The elastic moduli of the individual pavement layers backcalculated from the HWD deflection profiles are effective indicators of layer condition and are used for estimating the pavement remaining life. HWD tests were periodically conducted at the Federal Aviation Administration-s (FAA-s) National Airport Pavement Test Facility (NAPTF) to monitor the effect of Boeing 777 (B777) and Beoing 747 (B747) test gear trafficking on the structural condition of flexible pavement sections. In this study, a multi-layer, feed-forward network which uses an error-backpropagation algorithm was trained to approximate the HWD backcalculation function. The synthetic database generated using an advanced non-linear pavement finite-element program was used to train the ANN to overcome the limitations associated with conventional pavement moduli backcalculation. The changes in ANN-based backcalculated pavement moduli with trafficking were used to compare the relative severity effects of the aircraft landing gears on the NAPTF test pavements.

Keywords: Airfield pavements, ANN, backcalculation, newgeneration aircraft

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Authors: К. R. Aida–Zade, C. Ardil, S. S. Rustamov

Abstract:

Statement of the automatic speech recognition problem, the assignment of speech recognition and the application fields are shown in the paper. At the same time as Azerbaijan speech, the establishment principles of speech recognition system and the problems arising in the system are investigated. The computing algorithms of speech features, being the main part of speech recognition system, are analyzed. From this point of view, the determination algorithms of Mel Frequency Cepstral Coefficients (MFCC) and Linear Predictive Coding (LPC) coefficients expressing the basic speech features are developed. Combined use of cepstrals of MFCC and LPC in speech recognition system is suggested to improve the reliability of speech recognition system. To this end, the recognition system is divided into MFCC and LPC-based recognition subsystems. The training and recognition processes are realized in both subsystems separately, and recognition system gets the decision being the same results of each subsystems. This results in decrease of error rate during recognition. The training and recognition processes are realized by artificial neural networks in the automatic speech recognition system. The neural networks are trained by the conjugate gradient method. In the paper the problems observed by the number of speech features at training the neural networks of MFCC and LPC-based speech recognition subsystems are investigated. The variety of results of neural networks trained from different initial points in training process is analyzed. Methodology of combined use of neural networks trained from different initial points in speech recognition system is suggested to improve the reliability of recognition system and increase the recognition quality, and obtained practical results are shown.

Keywords: Speech recognition, cepstral analysis, Voice activation detection algorithm, Mel Frequency Cepstral Coefficients, features of speech, Cepstral Mean Subtraction, neural networks, Linear Predictive Coding.

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Authors: C. Ardil

Abstract:

This paper introduces the concept of neutral sets (NSs) and explores various operations on NSs, along with their associated properties. The foundation of the Neutral Set framework lies in ontological neutrality and the principles of logic, including the Law of Non-Contradiction. By encompassing components for possibility, indeterminacy, and necessity, the NS framework provides a flexible representation of truth, uncertainty, and necessity, accommodating diverse ontological perspectives without presupposing specific existential commitments. The inclusion of Possibility acknowledges the spectrum of potential states or propositions, promoting neutrality by accommodating various viewpoints. Indeterminacy reflects the inherent uncertainty in understanding reality, refraining from making definitive ontological commitments in uncertain situations. Necessity captures propositions that must hold true under all circumstances, aligning with the principle of logical consistency and implicitly supporting the Law of Non-Contradiction. Subsequently, a neutral set-TOPSIS approach is applied in the maintenance strategy selection problem, demonstrating the practical applicability of the NS framework. The paper further explores uncertainty relations and presents the fundamental preliminaries of NS theory, emphasizing its role in fostering ontological neutrality and logical coherence in reasoning.

Keywords: Uncertainty sets, neutral sets, maintenance strategy selection multiple criteria decision-making analysis, MCDM, uncertainty decision analysis, distance function, multiple attribute, decision making, selection method, uncertainty, TOPSIS

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Authors: Sagir M. Yusuf, Chris Baber

Abstract:

In this paper, we describe how Bayesian inferential reasoning will contributes in obtaining a well-satisfied prediction for Distributed Constraint Optimization Problems (DCOPs) with uncertainties. We also demonstrate how DCOPs could be merged to multi-agent knowledge understand and prediction (i.e. Situation Awareness). The DCOPs functions were merged with Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) in the form of situation, awareness, and utility nodes. We describe how the uncertainties can be represented to the BBN and make an effective prediction using the expectation-maximization algorithm or conjugate gradient descent algorithm. The idea of variable prediction using Bayesian inference may reduce the number of variables in agents’ sampling domain and also allow missing variables estimations. Experiment results proved that the BBN perform compelling predictions with samples containing uncertainties than the perfect samples. That is, Bayesian inference can help in handling uncertainties and dynamism of DCOPs, which is the current issue in the DCOPs community. We show how Bayesian inference could be formalized with Distributed Situation Awareness (DSA) using uncertain and missing agents’ data. The whole framework was tested on multi-UAV mission for forest fire searching. Future work focuses on augmenting existing architecture to deal with dynamic DCOPs algorithms and multi-agent information merging.

Keywords: DCOP, multi-agent reasoning, Bayesian reasoning, swarm intelligence.

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