Search results for: traditional city

Authors: Sheng-Gwo Chen, Wen-Haw Chen

Abstract:

It is an important problem to compute the geodesics on a surface in many fields. To find the geodesics in practice, however, the traditional discrete algorithms or numerical approaches can only find a list of discrete points. The first author proposed in 2010 a new, elegant and accurate method, the geodesic-like method, for approximating geodesics on a regular surface. This paper will present by use of this method a computation of the Bezier geodesic-like curves on spheres.

Keywords: Geodesics, Geodesic-like curve, Spheres, Bezier.

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Authors: Xiaoqing Wang, Fang Youyuan, Zheng Yanxing, Gu Tianyang, Zong Jianjian, Tong Jinrong

Abstract:

Compared with traditional distributed environment, the net-centric environment brings on more demanding challenges for information sharing with the characteristics of ultra-large scale and strong distribution, dynamic, autonomy, heterogeneity, redundancy. This paper realizes an information sharing model and a series of core services, through which provides an open, flexible and scalable information sharing platform.

Keywords: Net-centric environment, Information sharing, Metadata registry and catalog, Cross-domain data access control.

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Authors: Yi-Fan Lin, Peter P. Howley, Frank A. Tuyl

Abstract:

Quality measurement and reporting systems are used in healthcare internationally. In Australia, the Australian Council on Healthcare Standards records and reports hundreds of clinical indicators (CIs) nationally across the healthcare system. These CIs are measures of performance in the clinical setting, and are used as a screening tool to help assess whether a standard of care is being met. Existing analysis and reporting of these CIs incorporate Bayesian methods to address sampling variation; however, such assessments are retrospective in nature, reporting upon the previous six or twelve months of data. The use of Bayesian methods within statistical process control for monitoring systems is an important pursuit to support more timely decision-making. Our research has developed and assessed a new graphical monitoring tool, similar to a control chart, based on the beta-binomial posterior predictive (BBPP) distribution to facilitate the real-time assessment of health care organizational performance via CIs. The BBPP charts have been compared with the traditional Bernoulli CUSUM (BC) chart by simulation. The more traditional “central” and “highest posterior density” (HPD) interval approaches were each considered to define the limits, and the multiple charts were compared via in-control and out-of-control average run lengths (ARLs), assuming that the parameter representing the underlying CI rate (proportion of cases with an event of interest) required estimation. Preliminary results have identified that the BBPP chart with HPD-based control limits provides better out-of-control run length performance than the central interval-based and BC charts. Further, the BC chart’s performance may be improved by using Bayesian parameter estimation of the underlying CI rate.

Keywords: Average run length, Bernoulli CUSUM chart, beta binomial posterior predictive distribution, clinical indicator, health care organization, highest posterior density interval.

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Authors: D. I. De Souza, G. P. Azevedo, P. Duarte

Abstract:

In this paper the main objective is to analyze the quality of service of the bus companies operating in the city of Campos, located in the state of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. This analysis, based on the opinion of the bus customers, will help to determine their degree of satisfaction with the service provided by the bus companies. The result of this assessment shows that the bus customers are displeased with the quality of service supplied by the bus companies. Therefore, it is necessary to identify alternative solutions to minimize the consequences of the main problems related to customers- dissatisfaction identified in our evaluation and to help the bus companies operating in Campos better fulfill their riders- needs.

Keywords: PubicTransportation, Quality of Service, Riders'Opinion, Bus Companies

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Authors: Maryam Memarian, Mahmood Naghizadeh

Abstract:

Deconstruction is an approach that is entirely incompatible with the traditional prevalent architecture. Considering the fact that this approach attempts to put architecture in sharp contrast with its opposite events and transpires with attending to the neglected and missing aspects of architecture and deconstructing its stable structures. It also recklessly proceeds beyond the existing frameworks and intends to create a different and more efficient prospect for space. The aim of deconstruction architecture is to satisfy both the prospective and retrospective visions as well as takes into account all tastes of the present in order to transcend time. Likewise, it ventures to fragment the facts and symbols of the past and extract new concepts from within their heart, which coincide with today’s circumstances. Since this approach is an attempt to surpass the limits of the prevalent architecture, it can be employed to design places in which creative events occur and imagination and ambition flourish. Thought-provoking artistic events can grow and mature in such places and be represented in the best way possible to all people. The concept of event proposed in the plan grows out of the interaction between space and creation. In addition to triggering surprise and high impressions, it is also considered as a bold journey into the suspended realms of the traditional conflicts in architecture such as architecture-landscape, interior-exterior, center-margin, product-process, and stability-instability. In this project, at first, through interpretive-historical research method and examining the inputs and data collection, recognition and organizing takes place. After evaluating the obtained data using deductive reasoning, the data is eventually interpreted. Given the fact that the research topic is in its infancy and there is not a similar case in Iran with limited number of corresponding instances across the world, the selected topic helps to shed lights on the unrevealed and neglected parts in architecture. Similarly, criticizing, investigating and comparing specific and highly prized cases in other countries with the project under study can serve as an introduction into this architecture style.

Keywords: Creativity, deconstruction, event.

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Authors: Erwin F. Cadorna

Abstract:

This study attempted to compare the sexual perceptions and behaviors of male and female married Ilocanos. Data were gathered from 1,374 married Ilocanos (687 husbands and 687 wives) from nine municipalities and one city of the First District of Ilocos Sur. Findings showed that the male and female married Ilocanos differ in their psychological and physical sexual perceptions, but they had common social and spiritual sexual perceptions. Moreover, they were consistent in their behaviors towards sex, except for their behaviour after sex without reaching orgasm, wherein the males feel bad after having sex without reaching orgasm, while the females simply sleep it off.

Keywords: Gender Differences, Ilocanos, Sexual Behavior andPerception.

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Authors: Cansu Gülser, Tuğce Ercan

Abstract:

The construction sector is a key driver of the global economy, contributing significantly to growth and employment through a diverse array of sub-sectors. However, it faces challenges due to its project-based nature, which often hampers long-term collaboration and broader incentives beyond individual projects. These limitations are frequently discussed in scientific literature as obstacles to innovation and industry-wide change. Traditional practices and unwritten rules further hinder the adoption of new processes within the construction industry. The disadvantages of the construction industry’s project-based structure in fostering innovation and long-term relationships include limited continuity, fragmented collaborations, and a focus on short-term goals, which collectively hinder the development of sustained partnerships, inhibit the sharing of knowledge and best practices, and reduce incentives for investing in innovative processes and technologies. This structure typically emphasizes specific projects, which restricts broader collaborations and incentives that extend beyond individual projects, thus impeding innovation and change. The temporal complexities inherent in project-based sectors like construction make it difficult to address societal challenges through collaborative efforts. Traditional management approaches are inadequate for scaling up innovations and adapting to significant changes. For systemic transformation in the construction sector, there is a need for more collaborative relationships and activities beyond traditional supply chains. This study delves into the concept of an innovation ecosystem within the construction sector, highlighting various research findings. It aims to explore key questions about the components that enhance innovation capacity, the relationship between a robust innovation ecosystem and this capacity, and the reasons why innovation is less prevalent and implemented in this sector compared to others. Additionally, it examines the main factors hindering innovation within companies and identifies strategies to improve these efforts, particularly in developing countries. The innovation ecosystem in the construction sector generates various outputs through interactions between business resources and external components. These outputs include innovative value creation, sustainable practices, robust collaborations, knowledge sharing, competitiveness, and advanced project management, all of which contribute significantly to company market performance and competitive advantage. This article offers insights and strategic recommendations for industry professionals, policymakers, and researchers interested in developing and sustaining innovation ecosystems in the construction sector. Future research should focus on broader samples for generalization, comparative sector analysis, and application-focused studies addressing real industry challenges. Additionally, studying the long-term impacts of innovation ecosystems, integrating advanced technologies like AI and machine learning into project management, and developing future application strategies and policies are also important.

Keywords: Construction industry, innovation ecosystem, innovation ecosystem components, project management.

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Authors: Eduardo Álvarez, Gerardo Quiroga, Jorge Orozco, Gabriel Chavira

Abstract:

AmI proposes a new way of thinking about computers, which follows the ideas of the Ubiquitous Computing vision of Mark Weiser. In these, there is what is known as a Disappearing Computer Initiative, with users immersed in intelligent environments. Hence, technologies need to be adapted so that they are capable of replacing the traditional inputs to the system by embedding these in every-day artifacts. In this work, we present an approach, which uses Radiofrequency Identification (RFID) and Near Field Communication (NFC) technologies. In the latter, a new form of interaction appears by contact. We compare both technologies by analyzing their requirements and advantages. In addition, we propose using a combination of RFID and NFC.

Keywords: Touching interaction, ambient intelligence, NFC, RFID.

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Authors: Seyed Saeed Changiz Rezaei, Babak Hossein Khalaj

Abstract:

As the demand for higher capacity in a cellular environment increases, the cell size decreases. This fact makes the role of suitable handoff algorithms to reduce both number of handoffs and handoff delay more important. In this paper we show that applying the grey prediction technique for handoff leads to considerable decrease in handoff delay with using a small number of handoffs, compared with traditional hystersis based handoff algorithms.

Keywords: Cellular network, Grey prediction, Handoff.

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Authors: Prince Mugoya, Collins Oduor Ondiek, Patrick Kanyi Wamuyu

Abstract:

Refugee Job Board Website is a web-based application that provides a platform for organizations to post jobs specifically for refugees. Organizations upload job opportunities and refugees can view them on the website. The website also allows refugees to input their skills and qualifications. The methodology used to develop this system is a waterfall (traditional) methodology. Software development tools include Brackets which will be used to code the website and PhpMyAdmin to store all the data in a database.

Keywords: Information technology, refugee, skills, utilization, economy, jobs.

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Authors: Zeljko Panian

Abstract:

Through the course of this paper we define Locationbased Intelligence (LBI) which is outgrowing from process of amalgamation of geolocation and Business Intelligence. Amalgamating geolocation with traditional Business Intelligence (BI) results in a new dimension of BI named Location-based Intelligence. LBI is defined as leveraging unified location information for business intelligence. Collectively, enterprises can transform location data into business intelligence applications that will benefit all aspects of the enterprise. Expectations from this new dimension of business intelligence are great and its future is obviously bright.

Keywords: Business intelligence, geolocation, location-based intelligence, innovation, location-intelligent business

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Authors: Mohammad Ali Tabarzad, Caro Lucas, Ali Hamzeh

Abstract:

Adaptive Genetic Algorithms extend the Standard Gas to use dynamic procedures to apply evolutionary operators such as crossover, mutation and selection. In this paper, we try to propose a new adaptive genetic algorithm, which is based on the statistical information of the population as a guideline to tune its crossover, selection and mutation operators. This algorithms is called Statistical Genetic Algorithm and is compared with traditional GA in some benchmark problems.

Keywords: Genetic Algorithms, Statistical Information ofthe Population, PAUX, SSO.

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Authors: G. W. Ni, Y. M. Zhang, D. L. Jiang, J. N. Chen, B. Liu

Abstract:

In order to improve the effect of isolation structure, the principles and behaviours of the base-isolation system are studied, and the types and characteristics of the base-isolation are also discussed. Compared to the traditional aseismatic structures, the base isolation structures decrease the seismic response obviously: the total structural aseismatic value decreases to 1/4-1/32 and the seismic shear stress in the upper structure decreases to 1/14-1/23. In the huge seism, the structure can have an obvious aseismatic effect.

Keywords: Base-isolation, earthquake wave, dynamic response.

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Authors: Trish O'Sullivan

Abstract:

This paper considers the exclusion of consumer rights by the New Zealand Consumer Guarantees Act 1993 in eauctions. The paper asserts that the absence of an individual auctioneer conducting each e-auction means that e-auctions may not be auctions at all. The paper also questions the justification for excluding consumer rights in e-auctions because the rationale for excluding consumer rights in traditional auctions does not fit with e-auctions due to the significant differences in the sale processes. The paper recommends reform by way of statutory amendment.

Keywords: auction, auctioneer, consumer rights, e-auction.

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Authors: K. Tadjer, M. Bensaibi, A. Chaid

Abstract:

The seismic vulnerability of an urban area is of a great deal for local authorities especially those facing earthquakes. So, it is important to have an efficient tool to assess the vulnerability of existing buildings. The use of the VIP (Vulnerability Index Program) and the GIS (Geographic Information System) let us to identify the most vulnerable districts of an urban area. The use of the vulnerability index method lets us to assess the vulnerability of the center town of Blida (Algeria) which is a historical town and which has grown enormously during the last decades. In this method, three levels of vulnerability are defined. The GIS has been used to build a data base in order to perform different thematic analyses. These analyses show the seismic vulnerability of Blida.

Keywords: Blida, Earthquake, GIS, Seismic vulnerability, Urban area.

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Authors: Weerachi Sarakorn, I-Ming Tang

Abstract:

A mathematical model for the transmission of SARS is developed. In addition to dividing the population into susceptible (high and low risk), exposed, infected, quarantined, diagnosed and recovered classes, we have included a class called untraced. The model simulates the Gompertz curves which are the best representation of the cumulative numbers of probable SARS cases in Hong Kong and Singapore. The values of the parameters in the model which produces the best fit of the observed data for each city are obtained by using a differential evolution algorithm. It is seen that the values for the parameters needed to simulate the observed daily behaviors of the two epidemics are different.

Keywords: SARS, mathematical modelling, differential evolution algorithm.

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Authors: Michael Schukat

Abstract:

Electromagnetic flowmeters with DC excitation are used for a wide range of fluid measurement tasks, but are rarely found in dosing applications with short measurement cycles due to the achievable accuracy. This paper will identify a number of factors that influence the accuracy of this sensor type when used for short-term measurements. Based on these results a new signal-processing algorithm will be described that overcomes the identified problems to some extend. This new method allows principally a higher accuracy of electromagnetic flowmeters with DC excitation than traditional methods.

Keywords: Electromagnetic Flowmeter, Kalman Filter, ShortMeasurement Cycles, Signal Estimation

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Authors: S. Sieniutycz

Abstract:

This paper unifies power optimization approaches in various energy converters, such as: thermal, solar, chemical, and electrochemical engines, in particular fuel cells. Thermodynamics leads to converter-s efficiency and limiting power. Efficiency equations serve to solve problems of upgrading and downgrading of resources. While optimization of steady systems applies the differential calculus and Lagrange multipliers, dynamic optimization involves variational calculus and dynamic programming. In reacting systems chemical affinity constitutes a prevailing component of an overall efficiency, thus the power is analyzed in terms of an active part of chemical affinity. The main novelty of the present paper in the energy yield context consists in showing that the generalized heat flux Q (involving the traditional heat flux q plus the product of temperature and the sum products of partial entropies and fluxes of species) plays in complex cases (solar, chemical and electrochemical) the same role as the traditional heat q in pure heat engines. The presented methodology is also applied to power limits in fuel cells as to systems which are electrochemical flow engines propelled by chemical reactions. The performance of fuel cells is determined by magnitudes and directions of participating streams and mechanism of electric current generation. Voltage lowering below the reversible voltage is a proper measure of cells imperfection. The voltage losses, called polarization, include the contributions of three main sources: activation, ohmic and concentration. Examples show power maxima in fuel cells and prove the relevance of the extension of the thermal machine theory to chemical and electrochemical systems. The main novelty of the present paper in the FC context consists in introducing an effective or reduced Gibbs free energy change between products p and reactants s which take into account the decrease of voltage and power caused by the incomplete conversion of the overall reaction.

Keywords: Power yield, entropy production, chemical engines, fuel cells, exergy.

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Authors: Matthew Montebello

Abstract:

The way e-learning effectiveness has been notoriously measured within an academic setting is by comparing the e-learning medium to the traditional face-to-face teaching methodology. In this paper, a simple yet innovative comparison methodology is introduced, whereby the effectiveness of next generation e-learning systems are assessed in contrast not only to the face-to-face mode, but also to the classical e-learning modality. Ethical and logistical issues are also discussed, as this three-way approach to compare teaching methodologies was applied and documented in a real empirical study within a higher education institution.

Keywords: E-learning effectiveness, higher education, teaching modality comparison.

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Authors: Nang Thwe Thwe Oo

Abstract:

Traditional object segmentation methods are time consuming and computationally difficult. In this paper, onedimensional object detection along the secant lines is applied. Statistical features of texture images are computed for the recognition process. Example matrices of these features and formulae for calculation of similarities between two feature patterns are expressed. And experiments are also carried out using these features.

Keywords: 1-D object segmentation, secant lines, objectoccurrence(frequency) matrix, contiguity matrix, statistical features.

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Authors: Al Mutawa A. Amir, Liaqat Ali, Faisal Ali

Abstract:

After the World War II, the world economy was disrupted and changed due to oil and its prices. The research in this paper presents the basic statistical features and economic characteristics of the Gulf economy. The main features of the Gulf economies and its heavy dependence on oil exports, its dualism between modern and traditional sectors and its rapidly increasing affluences are particularly emphasized.  In this context, the research in this paper discussed the problems of growth versus development and has attempted to draw the implications for the future economic development of this area.

Keywords: Oil prices, Gulf Cooperation Council, economic growth, Gulf oil.

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Authors: Tausif A. Ishtiaque, Zarrin T. Tasin, Kazi S. Akter

Abstract:

Current trend of urban expansion, especially in the developing countries has caused significant changes in land cover, which is generating great concern due to its widespread environmental degradation. Energy consumption of the cities is also increasing with the aggravated heat island effect. Distribution of land surface temperature (LST) is one of the most significant climatic parameters affected by urban land cover change. Recent increasing trend of LST is causing elevated temperature profile of the built up area with less vegetative cover. Gradual change in land cover, especially decrease in vegetative cover is enhancing the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect in the developing cities around the world. Increase in the amount of urban vegetation cover can be a useful solution for the reduction of UHI intensity. LST and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) have widely been accepted as reliable indicators of UHI and vegetation abundance respectively. Chittagong, the second largest city of Bangladesh, has been a growth center due to rapid urbanization over the last several decades. This study assesses the intensity of UHI in Chittagong city by analyzing the relationship between LST and NDVI based on the type of land use/land cover (LULC) in the study area applying an integrated approach of Geographic Information System (GIS), remote sensing (RS), and regression analysis. Land cover map is prepared through an interactive supervised classification using remotely sensed data from Landsat ETM+ image along with NDVI differencing using ArcGIS. LST and NDVI values are extracted from the same image. The regression analysis between LST and NDVI indicates that within the study area, UHI is directly correlated with LST while negatively correlated with NDVI. It interprets that surface temperature reduces with increase in vegetation cover along with reduction in UHI intensity. Moreover, there are noticeable differences in the relationship between LST and NDVI based on the type of LULC. In other words, depending on the type of land usage, increase in vegetation cover has a varying impact on the UHI intensity. This analysis will contribute to the formulation of sustainable urban land use planning decisions as well as suggesting suitable actions for mitigation of UHI intensity within the study area.

Keywords: Land cover change, land surface temperature, normalized difference vegetation index, urban heat island.

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Authors: Li Feng

Abstract:

In IEEE 802.11 networks, it is well known that the traditional time-domain contention often leads to low channel utilization. The first frequency-domain contention scheme, the time to frequency (T2F), has recently been proposed to improve the channel utilization and has attracted a great deal of attention. In this paper, we present the latest research progress on the weighed frequency-domain contention. We compare the basic ideas, work principles of these related schemes and point out their differences. This paper is very useful for further study on frequency-domain contention.

Keywords: 802.11, wireless LANs, frequency-domain contention, T2F.

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Authors: Sana Hamdi, Emna Bouazizi, Sami Faiz

Abstract:

In recent years, real-time spatial applications, like location-aware services and traffic monitoring, have become more and more important. Such applications result dynamic environments where data as well as queries are continuously moving. As a result, there is a tremendous amount of real-time spatial data generated every day. The growth of the data volume seems to outspeed the advance of our computing infrastructure. For instance, in real-time spatial Big Data, users expect to receive the results of each query within a short time period without holding in account the load of the system. But with a huge amount of real-time spatial data generated, the system performance degrades rapidly especially in overload situations. To solve this problem, we propose the use of data partitioning as an optimization technique. Traditional horizontal and vertical partitioning can increase the performance of the system and simplify data management. But they remain insufficient for real-time spatial Big data; they can’t deal with real-time and stream queries efficiently. Thus, in this paper, we propose a novel data partitioning approach for real-time spatial Big data named VPA-RTSBD (Vertical Partitioning Approach for Real-Time Spatial Big data). This contribution is an implementation of the Matching algorithm for traditional vertical partitioning. We find, firstly, the optimal attribute sequence by the use of Matching algorithm. Then, we propose a new cost model used for database partitioning, for keeping the data amount of each partition more balanced limit and for providing a parallel execution guarantees for the most frequent queries. VPA-RTSBD aims to obtain a real-time partitioning scheme and deals with stream data. It improves the performance of query execution by maximizing the degree of parallel execution. This affects QoS (Quality Of Service) improvement in real-time spatial Big Data especially with a huge volume of stream data. The performance of our contribution is evaluated via simulation experiments. The results show that the proposed algorithm is both efficient and scalable, and that it outperforms comparable algorithms.

Keywords: Real-Time Spatial Big Data, Quality Of Service, Vertical partitioning, Horizontal partitioning, Matching algorithm, Hamming distance, Stream query.

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Authors: Mohsen Hayati, Zahra Mohebi

Abstract:

In this paper, the application of neural networks to study the design of short-term temperature forecasting (STTF) Systems for Kermanshah city, west of Iran was explored. One important architecture of neural networks named Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) to model STTF systems is used. Our study based on MLP was trained and tested using ten years (1996-2006) meteorological data. The results show that MLP network has the minimum forecasting error and can be considered as a good method to model the STTF systems.

Keywords: Artificial neural networks, Forecasting, Weather, Multi-layer perceptron.

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Authors: Shaza Melies, Saadeya Salem, Seham Kareh

Abstract:

Cartoon films are multisemiotic as various modes integrate in the production of meaning. This study aims to examine the cultural and linguistic specific references in the Egyptian dubbed cartoon film Mulan. The study examines the translation strategies implemented in the Egyptian dubbed version of Mulan to meet the cultural preferences of the audience. The study reached the following findings: Using the traditional translation strategies does not deliver the intended meaning of the source text and causes loss in the intended humor. As a result, the findings showed that in the dubbed version, translators tend to omit, change, or add information to the target text to be accepted by the audience. The contrastive analysis of the Mulan (English and dubbed versions) proves the connotations that the dubbing has taken to be accepted by the target audience. Cartoon films are multisemiotic as various modes integrate in the production of meaning. This study aims to examine the cultural and linguistic specific references in the Egyptian dubbed cartoon film Mulan. The study examines the translation strategies implemented in the Egyptian dubbed version of Mulan to meet the cultural preferences of the audience. The study reached the following findings: Using the traditional translation strategies does not deliver the intended meaning of the source text and causes loss in the intended humor. As a result, the findings showed that in the dubbed version, translators tend to omit, change, or add information to the target text to be accepted by the audience. The contrastive analysis of the Mulan (English and dubbed versions) proves the connotations that the dubbing has taken to be accepted by the target audience.

Keywords: Domestication, dubbing, Mulan, translation theories.

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Authors: M. J. Cunha

Abstract:

The aim of this paper is to understand how peers can influence adolescent girls- dieting behaviour and their body image. Departing from imitation and social learning theories, we study whether adolescent girls tend to model their peer group dieting behaviours, thus influencing their body image construction. Our study was conducted through an enquiry applied to a cluster sample of 466 adolescent high school girls in Lisbon city public schools. Our main findings point to an association between girls- and peers- dieting behaviours, thus reinforcing the modelling hypothesis.

Keywords: Modelling, Diet, Body image, Adolescent girls, Peer group.

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Authors: M. Giannopoulou, I. Roukounis, A. Roukouni.

Abstract:

Geographical Information Systems are an integral part of planning in modern technical systems. Nowadays referred to as Spatial Decision Support Systems, as they allow synergy database management systems and models within a single user interface machine and they are important tools in spatial design for evaluating policies and programs at all levels of administration. This work refers to the creation of a Geographical Information System in the context of a broader research in the area of influence of an under construction station of the new metro in the Greek city of Thessaloniki, which included statistical and multivariate data analysis and diagrammatic representation, mapping and interpretation of the results.

Keywords: Databases, Geographical information systems (GIS), Land-use planning, Metro stations

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Authors: Mohammad Ehson Rangiha, Bill Karakostas

Abstract:

Social Business Process Management (SBPM) promises to overcome limitations of traditional BPM by allowing flexible process design and enactment through the involvement of users from a social community. This paper proposes a meta-model and architecture for socially driven business process management systems. It discusses the main facets of the architecture such as goalbased role assignment that combines social recommendations with user profile, and process recommendation, through a real example of a charity organization.

Keywords: Business Process Management, Goal-Based Modelling, Process Recommendation Social Collaboration, Social BPM.

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Authors: Rajinder Singh, Ram Valluru

Abstract:

Chain Ladder (CL) method, Expected Loss Ratio (ELR) method and Bornhuetter-Ferguson (BF) method, in addition to more complex transition-rate modeling, are commonly used actuarial reserving methods in general insurance. There is limited published research about their relative performance in the context of Mortgage Insurance (MI). In our experience, these traditional techniques pose unique challenges and do not provide stable claim estimates for medium to longer term liabilities. The relative strengths and weaknesses among various alternative approaches revolve around: stability in the recent loss development pattern, sufficiency and reliability of loss development data, and agreement/disagreement between reported losses to date and ultimate loss estimate. CL method results in volatile reserve estimates, especially for accident periods with little development experience. The ELR method breaks down especially when ultimate loss ratios are not stable and predictable. While the BF method provides a good tradeoff between the loss development approach (CL) and ELR, the approach generates claim development and ultimate reserves that are disconnected from the ever-to-date (ETD) development experience for some accident years that have more development experience. Further, BF is based on subjective a priori assumption. The fundamental shortcoming of these methods is their inability to model exogenous factors, like the economy, which impact various cohorts at the same chronological time but at staggered points along their life-time development. This paper proposes an alternative approach of parametrizing the loss development curve and using logistic regression to generate the ultimate loss estimate for each homogeneous group (accident year or delinquency period). The methodology was tested on an actual MI claim development dataset where various cohorts followed a sigmoidal trend, but levels varied substantially depending upon the economic and operational conditions during the development period spanning over many years. The proposed approach provides the ability to indirectly incorporate such exogenous factors and produce more stable loss forecasts for reserving purposes as compared to the traditional CL and BF methods.

Keywords: Actuarial loss reserving techniques, logistic regression, parametric function, volatility.

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