Search results for: Statistical Modelling

Authors: Andrea Gelmini

Abstract:

This paper considers the advent of 5G and the use of it in a Based Control System (BCS), posing as a basic concept the question of what the real differences and practical improvements are compared to 4G. To this purpose, a testbed hardware simulator has been designed and built where identical machines with the same sensors and management systems will communicate with different radio access network connections. This allows an objective statistical comparison of performance on the real functioning and improvement of the infrastructure with the Industrial Internet of Things (IIoT) connected to it.

Keywords: 4G, 5G, BCS, eSIM, IIoT, SCADA, Testbed.

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Authors: Pinho C., Madaleno M.

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German electricity European options on futures using Lévy processes for the underlying asset are examined. Implied volatility evolution, under each of the considered models, is discussed after calibrating for the Merton jump diffusion (MJD), variance gamma (VG), normal inverse Gaussian (NIG), Carr, Geman, Madan and Yor (CGMY) and the Black and Scholes (B&S) model. Implied volatility is examined for the entire sample period, revealing some curious features about market evolution, where data fitting performances of the five models are compared. It is shown that variance gamma processes provide relatively better results and that implied volatility shows significant differences through time, having increasingly evolved. Volatility changes for changed uncertainty, or else, increasing futures prices and there is evidence for the need to account for seasonality when modelling both electricity spot/futures prices and volatility.

Keywords: Calibration, Electricity Markets, Implied Volatility, Lévy Models, Options on Futures, Pricing

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Authors: Ion Smeureanu, Adriana Reveiu, Marian Dardala, Titus Felix Furtuna, Roman Kanala

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This paper proposes a linear model for optimizing domestic energy consumption in Romania. The particularity of the model is that it is putting in competition both tangible technologies and thermal insulation projects with different financing modes. The model is optimizing the energy system by minimizing the global discounted cost in household sector, by integrating residential lighting, space heating, hot water, combined space heating – hot water, as well as space cooling, in a monolithic model. Another demand sector included is the passenger transport. This paper focuses on space heating part, analyzing technical and economic issues related to investment decisions to envelope and insulate buildings, in order to minimize energy consumption.

Keywords: Consumer behavior, energy modelling, Open Source Energy Modeling System (OSeMOSYS), MARKAL/TIMES Romanian energy model.

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Authors: Oluseun S. Oyelakin, Olalekan W. Olaniyi

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A field experiment was conducted at Ido town in Ido Local Government Area of Oyo state, Nigeria to determine the effects of intercropping maize (Zea mays L.) with Jack bean (Canavalia ensiformis L.) at different spacing and weeding regimes on crops productivity. The treatments were 2 x 2 x 3 factorial arrangement involving two spatial crop arrangements. Spacing of 75 cm x 50 cm and 90 cm x 42 cm (41.667 cm) with two plants per stand resulted in plant population of approximately 53,000 plants/hectare. Also, Randomized Complete Block Design (RCBD) with two cropping patterns (sole and intercrop), three weeding regimes (weedy check, weeds once, and weed twice) with three replicates was used. Data were analyzed with SAS (Statistical Analysis System) and statistical means separated using Least Significant Difference (LSD) (P ≤ 0.05). Intercropping and crop spacing did not have significant influence on the growth parameters and yield parameters. The maize grain yield of 1.11 t/ha obtained under sole maize was comparable to 1.05 t/ha from maize/jack beans. Weeding regime significantly influenced growth and yields of maize in intercropping with Jack beans. Weeding twice resulted in significantly higher growth than that of the other weeding regimes. Plant height at 6 Weeks After Sowing (WAS) under weeding twice regime (3 and 6 WAS) was 83.9 cm which was significantly different from 67.75 cm and 53.47 cm for weeding once (3 WAS) and no weeding regimes respectively. Moreover, maize grain yield of 1.3 t/ha obtained from plots weeded twice was comparable to that of 1.23 t/ha from single weeding and both were significantly higher than 0.71 t/ha maize grain yield obtained from the no weeding control. The dry matter production of Jack beans reduced at some growth stages due to intercropping of maize with Jack beans though with no significance effect on the other growth parameters of the crop. There was no effect on the growth parameters of Jack beans in maize/jack beans intercrop based on cropping spacing while comparable growth and dry matter production in Jack beans were produced in maize/Jack beans mixture with single weeding.

Keywords: Crop spacing, intercropping, growth parameter, weeding regime, sole cropping, week after sowing.

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Authors: E. Elgendy, J. Schmidt

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Drop-in of R-22 alternatives in refrigeration and air conditioning systems requires a redesign of system components to improve system performance and reliability with the alternative refrigerants. The present paper aims at design adiabatic capillary tubes for R-22 alternatives such as R-417A, R-422D and R-438A. A theoretical model has been developed and validated with the available experimental data from literature for R-22 over a wide range of both operating and geometrical parameters. Predicted lengths of adiabatic capillary tube are compared with the lengths of the capillary tube needed under similar experimental conditions and majority of predictions are found to be within 4.4% of the experimental data. Hence, the model has been applied for R-417A, R- 422D and R-438A and capillary tube selection charts and correlations have been computed. Finally a comparison between the selected refrigerants and R-22 has been introduced and the results showed that R-438A is the closest one to R-22.

Keywords: Adiabatic flow, Capillary tube, R-22 alternatives, Rating charts, Modelling.

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Authors: Elke Mackensen

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Systems Engineering plays a key role during industrial product development of complex technical systems. The need for systems engineers in industry is growing. But there is a gap between the industrial need and the academic education. Normally the academic education is focused on the domain specific design, implementation and testing of technical systems. Necessary systems engineering expertise like knowledge about requirements analysis, product cost estimation, management or social skills are poorly taught. Thus there is the need of new academic concepts for teaching systems engineering skills. This paper presents a project-orientated training concept to prepare students from different technical degree programs for systems engineering activities. The training concept has been initially implemented and applied in the industrial engineering master program of the University of Applied Sciences Offenburg.

Keywords: Educational systems engineering training, requirements analysis, system modelling, SysML.

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Authors: Orkide Donma, Mustafa M. Donma

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Chronologic age (CA) of individuals is closely related to obesity and generally affects the magnitude of obesity parameters. On the other hand, close association between basal metabolic rate (BMR) and metabolic age (MA) is also a matter of concern. It is suggested that MA higher than CA is the indicator of the need to improve the metabolic rate. In this study, the aim was to assess some commonly used obesity parameters, such as obesity degree, visceral adiposity, BMR, BMR-to-weight ratio, in several groups with varying differences between MA and CA values. The study comprises adults, whose ages vary between 18 and 79 years. Four groups were constituted. Group 1, 2, 3 and 4 were composed of 55, 33, 76 and 47 adults, respectively. The individuals exhibiting -1, 0 and +1 for their MA-CA values were involved in Group 1, which was considered as the control group. Those, whose MA-CA values varying between -5 and -10 participated in Group 2. Those, whose MAs above their real ages were divided into two groups [Group 3 (MA-CA; from +5 to + 10) and Group 4 (MA-CA; from +11 to + 12)]. Body mass index (BMI) values were calculated. TANITA body composition monitor using bioelectrical impedance analysis technology was used to obtain values for obesity degree, visceral adiposity, BMR and BMR-to-weight ratio. The compiled data were evaluated statistically using a statistical package program; SPSS. Mean ± SD values were determined. Correlation analyses were performed. The statistical significance degree was accepted as p < 0.05. The increase in BMR was positively correlated with obesity degree. MAs and CAs of the groups were 39.9 ± 16.8 vs 39.9 ± 16.7 years for Group 1, 45.0 ± 15.3 vs 51.4 ± 15.7 years for Group 2, 47.2 ± 12.7 vs 40.0 ± 12.7 years for Group 3, and 53.6 ± 14.8 vs 42 ± 14.8 years for Group 4. BMI values of the groups were 24.3 ± 3.6 kg/m², 23.2 ± 1.7 kg/m², 30.3 ± 3.8 kg/m², and 40.1 ± 5.1 kg/m² for Group 1, 2, 3 and 4, respectively. Values obtained for BMR were 1599 ± 328 kcal in Group 1, 1463 ± 198 kcal in Group 2, 1652 ± 350 kcal in Group 3, and 1890 ± 360 kcal in Group 4. A correlation was observed between BMR and MA-CA values in Group 1. No correlation was detected in other groups. On the other hand, statistically significant correlations between MA-CA values and obesity degree, BMI as well as BMR/weight were found in Group 3 and in Group 4. It was concluded that upon consideration of these findings in terms of MA-CA values, BMR-to-weight ratio was found to be much more useful indicator of the severe increase in obesity development than BMR. Also, the lack of associations between MA and BMR as well as BMR-to-weight ratio emphasize the importance of consideration of MA-CA values rather than MA.

Keywords: Basal metabolic rate, chronologic age, metabolic age, obesity degree.

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Authors: Pierre Kenfack

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In this paper we present a contribution for the modelling and control of the inverter voltage of a permanent magnet linear generator with multi air-gap structure. The time domain control method is based on instant comparison of reference signals, in the form of current or voltage, with actual or measured signals. The reference current or voltage must be kept close to the actual signal with a reasonable tolerance. In this work, the time domain control method is used to control tracking signals. The performance evaluation concerns the continuation of reference signal. Simulations validate very well the tracking of reference variables (current, voltage) by measured or actual signals. All is simulated and presented under PSIM Software to show the performance and robustness of the proposed controller.

Keywords: Control, permanent magnet, linear machine, multi air-gap structure.

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Authors: Musammat F. Nahar, Anna Roujeinikova

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Bacterial molecular chaperone DnaK plays an essential role in protein folding, stress response and transmembrane targeting of proteins. DnaKs from many bacterial species, including Escherichia coli, Salmonella typhimurium and Haemophilus infleunzae are the molecular targets for the insect-derived antimicrobial peptide pyrrhocoricin. Pyrrhocoricin-like peptides bind in the substrate recognition tunnel. Despite the high degree of crossspecies sequence conservation in the substrate-binding tunnel, some bacteria are not sensitive to pyrrhocoricin. This work addresses the molecular mechanism of resistance of Helicobacter pylori DnaK to pyrrhocoricin. Homology modelling, structural and sequence analysis identify a single aminoacid substitution at the interface between the lid and the β-sandwich subdomains of the DnaK substrate-binding domain as the major determinant for its resistance.

Keywords: Helicobacter pylori, molecular chaperone DnaK, pyrrhocoricin, structural biology.

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Authors: Yu Zhao, Min Zhang, Yuanqian Wang, Qiuyu Yu

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The prediction of aesthetics of apparel is helpful for the development of a new type of apparel. This study is to build the quantitative relationship between the aesthetics and its design parameters. In particular, women’s pants have been preliminarily studied. This aforementioned relationship has been carried out by statistical analysis. The contributions of this study include the development of a more personalized apparel design mechanism and the provision of some empirical knowledge for the development of other products in the aspect of aesthetics.

Keywords: Aesthetics, crease line, cropped straight leg pants, knee width.

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Authors: Mansour Al Qubeissi, Sergei S. Sazhin, Cyril Crua, Morgan R. Heikal

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This paper presents the application of the Discrete Component Model for heating and evaporation to multi-component biodiesel fuel droplets in direct injection internal combustion engines. This model takes into account the effects of temperature gradient, recirculation and species diffusion inside droplets. A distinctive feature of the model used in the analysis is that it is based on the analytical solutions to the temperature and species diffusion equations inside the droplets. Nineteen types of biodiesel fuels are considered. It is shown that a simplistic model, based on the approximation of biodiesel fuel by a single component or ignoring the diffusion of components of biodiesel fuel, leads to noticeable errors in predicted droplet evaporation time and time evolution of droplet surface temperature and radius.

Keywords: Heat/Mass Transfer, Biodiesel, Multi-component Fuel, Droplet, Evaporation.

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Authors: Anne M. Sørebø

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In this paper we investigate how wide-ranging organizational support and the more specific form of support, namely management support, may influence on tourism workers satisfaction with a cash transaction system. The IS continuance theory, proposed by Bhattacherjee in 2001, is utilized as a theoretical framework. This implies that both perceived usefulness and ease of use is included in the research model, in addition to organizational and management support. The sample consists of 500 workers from 10 cruise and tourist ferries in Scandinavia that use a cash transaction system to perform their work tasks. Using structural equation modelling, results indicate that organizational support and ease of use perceptions is critical for the users- level of satisfaction with the cash transaction system.The findings have implications for business managers and IS practitioners that want to increase the quality of IT-based business processes within the tourism industry.

Keywords: ease of use, IS continuance, organizational support, tourism industry, user satisfaction.

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Authors: Lotfi Nabli, Achraf Jabeur Telmoudi, Radhi M'hiri

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This paper proposes a modeling method of the laws controlling manufacturing systems with temporal and non temporal constraints. A methodology of robust control construction generating the margins of passive and active robustness is being elaborated. Indeed, two paramount models are presented in this paper. The first utilizes the P-time Petri Nets which is used to manage the flow type disturbances. The second, the quality model, exploits the Intervals Constrained Petri Nets (ICPN) tool which allows the system to preserve its quality specificities. The redundancy of the robustness of the elementary parameters between passive and active is also used. The final model built allows the correlation of temporal and non temporal criteria by putting two paramount models in interaction. To do so, a set of definitions and theorems are employed and affirmed by applicator examples.

Keywords: Manufacturing systems control, flow, quality, robustness, redundancy, Petri Nets.

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Authors: S. Sabzchi Asl, N. Tahouni, M. H. Panjeshahi

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Benchmarking of a process with respect to energy consumption, without accomplishing a full retrofit study, can save both engineering time and money. In order to achieve this goal, the first step is to develop a conceptual-mathematical model that can easily be applied to a group of similar processes. In this research, we have aimed to identify a set of key parameters for the model which is supposed to be used for benchmarking of combined cycle power plants. For this purpose, three similar combined cycle power plants were studied. The results showed that ambient temperature, pressure and relative humidity, number of HRSG evaporator pressure levels and relative power in part load operation are the main key parameters. Also, the relationships between these parameters and produced power (by gas/ steam turbine), gas turbine and plant efficiency, temperature and mass flow rate of the stack flue gas were investigated.

Keywords: Combined cycle power plant, energy benchmarking, modelling, Retrofit.

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Authors: V. Přivřelová

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Well-designed composite steel and concrete structures highlight the good material properties and lower the deficiencies of steel and concrete, in particular they make use of high tensile strength of steel and high stiffness of concrete. The most common composite steel and concrete structure is a simply supported beam, which concrete slab transferring the slab load to a beam is connected to the steel cross-section. The aim of this paper is to find the most adequate numerical model of a simply supported composite beam with the cross-sectional and material parameters based on the results of a processed parametric study and numerical analysis. The paper also evaluates the suitability of using compact concrete with the lightweight aggregates for composite steel and concrete beams. The most adequate numerical model will be used in the resent future to compare the results of laboratory tests.

Keywords: Composite beams, high-performance concrete, highstrength steel, lightweight concrete slab, modeling.

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Authors: Abbas Vahedian, Rijun Shrestha, Keith Crews

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In recent years, fibre reinforced polymers as applications of strengthening materials have received significant attention by civil engineers and environmentalists because of their excellent characteristics. Currently, these composites have become a mainstream technology for strengthening of infrastructures such as steel, concrete and more recently, timber and masonry structures. However, debonding is identified as the main problem which limit the full utilisation of the FRP material. In this paper, a preliminary analysis of factors affecting bond strength of FRP-to-concrete and timber bonded interface has been conducted. A novel theoretical method through regression analysis has been established to evaluate these factors. Results of proposed model are then assessed with results of pull-out tests and satisfactory comparisons are achieved between measured failure loads (R² = 0.83, P < 0.0001) and the predicted loads (R² = 0.78, P < 0.0001).

Keywords: Debonding, FRP, pull-out test, stepwise regression analysis.

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Authors: A. M. Pashayev, C. Ardil, D. D. Askerov, R. A. Sadiqov, P. S. Abdullayev

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In this paper is shown that the probability-statistic methods application, especially at the early stage of the aviation gas turbine engine (GTE) technical condition diagnosing, when the flight information has property of the fuzzy, limitation and uncertainty is unfounded. Hence is considered the efficiency of application of new technology Soft Computing at these diagnosing stages with the using of the Fuzzy Logic and Neural Networks methods. Training with high accuracy of fuzzy multiple linear and non-linear models (fuzzy regression equations) which received on the statistical fuzzy data basis is made. Thus for GTE technical condition more adequate model making are analysed dynamics of skewness and kurtosis coefficients' changes. Researches of skewness and kurtosis coefficients values- changes show that, distributions of GTE work parameters have fuzzy character. Hence consideration of fuzzy skewness and kurtosis coefficients is expedient. Investigation of the basic characteristics changes- dynamics of GTE work parameters allows to draw conclusion on necessity of the Fuzzy Statistical Analysis at preliminary identification of the engines' technical condition. Researches of correlation coefficients values- changes shows also on their fuzzy character. Therefore for models choice the application of the Fuzzy Correlation Analysis results is offered. For checking of models adequacy is considered the Fuzzy Multiple Correlation Coefficient of Fuzzy Multiple Regression. At the information sufficiency is offered to use recurrent algorithm of aviation GTE technical condition identification (Hard Computing technology is used) on measurements of input and output parameters of the multiple linear and non-linear generalised models at presence of noise measured (the new recursive Least Squares Method (LSM)). The developed GTE condition monitoring system provides stage-bystage estimation of engine technical conditions. As application of the given technique the estimation of the new operating aviation engine temperature condition was made.

Keywords: Gas turbine engines, neural networks, fuzzy logic, fuzzy statistics.

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Authors: Roland Lang, Dietmar Bruckner, Rosemarie Velik, Tobias Deutsch

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Modern building automation needs to deal with very different types of demands, depending on the use of a building and the persons acting in it. To meet the requirements of situation awareness in modern building automation, scenario recognition becomes more and more important in order to detect sequences of events and to react to them properly. We present two concepts of scenario recognition and their implementation, one based on predefined templates and the other applying an unsupervised learning algorithm using statistical methods. Implemented applications will be described and their advantages and disadvantages will be outlined.

Keywords: Building automation, ubiquitous computing, scenariorecognition, surveillance system.

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Authors: Swathi Ganesan, Nalinda Somasiri, Rebecca Jeyavadhanam, Gayathri Karthick

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The COVID-19 crisis presents a substantial and critical hazard to worldwide health. Since the occurrence of the disease in late January 2020 in the UK, the number of infected people confirmed to acquire the illness has increased tremendously across the country, and the number of individuals affected is undoubtedly considerably high. The purpose of this research is to figure out a predictive machine learning (ML) archetypal that could forecast the COVID-19 cases within the UK. This study concentrates on the statistical data collected from 31st January 2020 to 31st March 2021 in the United Kingdom. Information on total COVID-19 cases registered, new cases encountered on a daily basis, total death registered, and patients’ death per day due to Coronavirus is collected from World Health Organization (WHO). Data preprocessing is carried out to identify any missing values, outliers, or anomalies in the dataset. The data are split into 8:2 ratio for training and testing purposes to forecast future new COVID-19 cases. Support Vector Machine (SVM), Random Forest (RF), and linear regression (LR) algorithms are chosen to study the model performance in the prediction of new COVID-19 cases. From the evaluation metrics such as r-squared value and mean squared error, the statistical performance of the model in predicting the new COVID-19 cases is evaluated. RF outperformed the other two ML algorithms with a training accuracy of 99.47% and testing accuracy of 98.26% when n = 30. The mean square error obtained for RF is 4.05e11, which is lesser compared to the other predictive models used for this study. From the experimental analysis, RF algorithm can perform more effectively and efficiently in predicting the new COVID-19 cases, which could help the health sector to take relevant control measures for the spread of the virus.

Keywords: COVID-19, machine learning, supervised learning, unsupervised learning, linear regression, support vector machine, random forest.

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Authors: Monica Dudian , Raluca Andreea Popa

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This article analyses the relationship between sovereign credit risk rating and gross domestic product for Central and Eastern European Countries for the period 1996 – 2010. In order to study the metioned relationship, we have used a numerical transformation of the risk qualification, thus: we marked 0 the lowest risk; then, we went on ascending, with a pace of 5, up to the score of 355 corresponding to the maximum risk. The used method of analysis is that of econometric modelling with EViews 7.0. programme. This software allows the analysis of data into a pannel type system, involving a mix of periods of time and series of data for different entities. The main conclusion of the work is the one confirming the negative relationship between the sovereign credit risk and the gross domestic product for the Central European and Eastern countries during the reviewed period.

Keywords: credit rating agencies, economic growth, gross domestic product, sovereign credit risk rating.

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Authors: Manan’Iarivo Rasolonjanahary, Chris Bingham, Nigel Schofield, Masoud Bazargan

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This paper presents the research and application of model predictive scheduled charging of electric vehicles (EV) subject to limited available power resource. To focus on algorithm and operational characteristics, the EV interface to the source is modelled as a battery state equation during the charging operation. The researched methods allow for the priority scheduling of EV charging in a multi-vehicle regime and when subject to limited source power availability. Priority attribution for each connected EV is described. The validity of the developed methodology is shown through the simulation of different scenarios of charging operation of multiple connected EVs including non-scheduled and scheduled operation with various numbers of vehicles. Performance of the developed algorithms is also reported with the recommendation of the choice of suitable parameters.

Keywords: Model predictive control, non-scheduled, power limited sources, scheduled and stop-start battery charging.

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Authors: C. Patrascioiu, M. Jamali

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The paper deals with the simulation of the crude distillation process using the Unisim Design simulator. The necessity of simulating this process is argued both by considerations related to the design of the crude distillation column, but also by considerations related to the design of advanced control systems. In order to use the Unisim Design simulator to simulate the crude distillation process, the identification of the simulators used in Romania and an analysis of the PRO/II, HYSYS, and Aspen HYSYS simulators were carried out. Analysis of the simulators for the crude distillation process has allowed the authors to elaborate the conclusions of the success of the crude modelling. A first aspect developed by the authors is the implementation of specific problems of petroleum liquid-vapors equilibrium using Unisim Design simulator. The second major element of the article is the development of the methodology and the elaboration of the simulation program for the crude distillation process, using Unisim Design resources. The obtained results validate the proposed methodology and will allow dynamic simulation of the process.  

Keywords: Crude oil, distillation, simulation, Unisim Design, simulators.

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Authors: M. Jalali Azizpour, H. Mohammadi Majd

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In this paper, the effect of WC-12Co particle velocity in HVOF thermal spraying process on the coating thickness has been studied. The statistical results show that the spray distance and oxygen-to-fuel ratio are more effective factors on particle characterization and thickness of HVOF thermal spraying coatings. Spray Watch diagnostic system, scanning electron microscopy (SEM), X-ray diffraction and thickness measuring system were used for this purpose.

Keywords: Grinding, HVOF, Thermal spray, WC-Co.

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Authors: Shahrol Mohamaddan, Keith Case, Ana Sakura Zainal Abidin

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Human movement in the real world provides important information for developing human behaviour models and simulations. However, it is difficult to assess ‘real’ human behaviour since there is no established method available. As part of the AUNTSUE (Accessibility and User Needs in Transport – Sustainable Urban Environments) project, this research aimed to propose a method to assess human movement and behaviour in crowded areas. The method is based on the three major steps of video recording, conceptual behavior modelling and video analysis. The focus is on individual human movement and behaviour in normal situations (panic situations are not considered) and the interactions between individuals in localized areas. Emphasis is placed on gaining knowledge of characteristics of human movement and behaviour in the real world that can be modelled in the virtual environment.

Keywords: Video observation, Human movement, Behaviour, Crowds, Ergonomics, AUNT-SUE

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Authors: C. Silveira, A. Ascenso, J. Ferreira, A. I. Miranda, P. Tuccella, G. Curci

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Poor air quality is one of the main environmental causes of premature deaths worldwide, and mainly in cities, where the majority of the population lives. It is a consequence of successive land cover (LC) and use changes, as a result of the intensification of human activities. Knowing these landscape modifications in a comprehensive spatiotemporal dimension is, therefore, essential for understanding variations in air pollutant concentrations. In this sense, the use of air quality models is very useful to simulate the physical and chemical processes that affect the dispersion and reaction of chemical species into the atmosphere. However, the modelling performance should always be evaluated since the resolution of the input datasets largely dictates the reliability of the air quality outcomes. Among these data, the updated LC is an important parameter to be considered in atmospheric models, since it takes into account the Earth’s surface changes due to natural and anthropic actions, and regulates the exchanges of fluxes (emissions, heat, moisture, etc.) between the soil and the air. This work aims to evaluate the performance of the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem), when different LC classifications are used as an input. The influence of two LC classifications was tested: i) the 24-classes USGS (United States Geological Survey) LC database included by default in the model, and the ii) CLC (Corine Land Cover) and specific high-resolution LC data for Portugal, reclassified according to the new USGS nomenclature (33-classes). Two distinct WRF-Chem simulations were carried out to assess the influence of the LC on air quality over Europe and Portugal, as a case study, for the year 2015, using the nesting technique over three simulation domains (25 km², 5 km² and 1 km² horizontal resolution). Based on the 33-classes LC approach, particular emphasis was attributed to Portugal, given the detail and higher LC spatial resolution (100 m x 100 m) than the CLC data (5000 m x 5000 m). As regards to the air quality, only the LC impacts on tropospheric ozone concentrations were evaluated, because ozone pollution episodes typically occur in Portugal, in particular during the spring/summer, and there are few research works relating to this pollutant with LC changes. The WRF-Chem results were validated by season and station typology using background measurements from the Portuguese air quality monitoring network. As expected, a better model performance was achieved in rural stations: moderate correlation (0.4 – 0.7), BIAS (10 – 21µg.m^-3) and RMSE (20 – 30 µg.m^-3), and where higher average ozone concentrations were estimated. Comparing both simulations, small differences grounded on the Leaf Area Index and air temperature values were found, although the high-resolution LC approach shows a slight enhancement in the model evaluation. This highlights the role of the LC on the exchange of atmospheric fluxes, and stresses the need to consider a high-resolution LC characterization combined with other detailed model inputs, such as the emission inventory, to improve air quality assessment.

Keywords: Land cover, tropospheric ozone, WRF-Chem, air quality assessment.

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Authors: Sotiris B. Kotsiantis

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Bagging and boosting are among the most popular re-sampling ensemble methods that generate and combine a diversity of regression models using the same learning algorithm as base-learner. Boosting algorithms are considered stronger than bagging on noise-free data. However, there are strong empirical indications that bagging is much more robust than boosting in noisy settings. For this reason, in this work we built an ensemble using an averaging methodology of bagging and boosting ensembles with 10 sub-learners in each one. We performed a comparison with simple bagging and boosting ensembles with 25 sub-learners on standard benchmark datasets and the proposed ensemble gave better accuracy.

Keywords: Regressors, statistical learning.

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Authors: Paola Gattinoni, Vincenzo Francani

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The paper deals with the analysis of triggering conditions and evolution processes of piping phenomena, in relation to both mechanical and hydraulic aspects. In particular, the aim of the study is to predict slope instabilities triggered by piping, analysing the conditions necessary for a flow failure to occur. Really, the mechanical effect involved in the loads redistribution around the pipe is coupled to the drainage process arising from higher permeability of the pipe. If after the pipe formation, the drainage goes prevented for pipe clogging, the porewater pressure increase can lead to the failure or even the liquefaction, with a subsequent flow slide. To simulate the piping evolution and to verify relevant stability conditions, a iterative coupled modelling approach has been pointed out. As example, the proposed tool has been applied to the Stava Valley disaster (July, 1985), demonstrating that piping might be one of triggering phenomena of the tailings dams collapse.

Keywords: Flow failure, liquefaction, modeling, piping, porewater pressure.

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Authors: A. H. Elkholy, A. H. Falah

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A new approach has been developed to estimate the load share and distribution of worm gear drives, and to calculate the instantaneous tooth meshing stiffness. In the approach, the worm gear drive was modelled as a series of spur gear slices, and each slice was analyzed separately using the well-established formulae of spur gear loading and stresses. By combining the results obtained for all slices, the entire envolute worm gear set loading and stressing was obtained. The geometric modelling method presented allows tooth elastic deformation and tooth root stresses of worm gear drives under different load conditions to be investigated. Based on the slicing method introduced in this study, the instantaneous meshing stiffness and load share are obtained. In comparison with existing methods, this approach has both good analysis accuracy and less computing time.

Keywords: Gear, load/stress distribution, worm, wheel, tooth stiffness, contact line.

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Authors: Olga Orynycz, Andrzej Wasiak

Abstract:

Mathematical model describing energetic efficiency (defined as a ratio of energy obtained in the form of biofuel to the sum of energy inputs necessary to facilitate production) of agricultural subsystem as a function of technological parameters was developed. Production technology is characterized by parameters of machinery, topological characteristics of the plantation as well as transportation routes inside and outside of plantation. The relationship between the energetic efficiency of agricultural and industrial subsystems is also derived. Due to the assumed large area of the individual field, the operations last for several days increasing inter-fields routes because of several returns. The total distance driven outside of the fields is, however, small as compared to the distance driven inside of the fields. This results in small energy consumption during inter-fields transport that, however, causes a substantial decrease of the energetic effectiveness of the whole system.

Keywords: Biofuel, energetic efficiency, EROEI, mathematical modelling, production system.

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Authors: Theddeus T. Akano, Omotayo A. Fakinlede

Abstract:

The modelling of physical phenomena, such as the earth’s free oscillations, the vibration of strings, the interaction of atomic particles, or the steady state flow in a bar give rise to Sturm- Liouville (SL) eigenvalue problems. The boundary applications of some systems like the convection-diffusion equation, electromagnetic and heat transfer problems requires the combination of Dirichlet and Neumann boundary conditions. Hence, the incorporation of Robin boundary condition in the analyses of Sturm-Liouville problem. This paper deals with the computation of the eigenvalues and eigenfunction of generalized Sturm-Liouville problems with Robin boundary condition using the finite element method. Numerical solution of classical Sturm–Liouville problem is presented. The results show an agreement with the exact solution. High results precision is achieved with higher number of elements.

Keywords: Sturm-Liouville problem, Robin boundary condition, finite element method, eigenvalue problems.

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